A.

Introduction: IMT GHAZIABAD

Human Resource Planning & Forecasting:

Markov Analysis, Skill Inventory & other methods
PGDM (Ex) 2013-14

Group 10

Swapnil Waghmare (1303-046) Syed Adil Umair (1303-047) V Ramkumar (1303-048) Veeresh Kaul (1303-049) Ashutosh Shrivastva (1303-050) Mazhar Hossain (1303-051)

Human Resource Planning & Forecasting:

As defined by Bulla and Scott, human resource planning is the process for ensuring that the human resource requirements of an organization are identified and plans are made for satisfying those requirements. Reilly defined workforce planning as: A process in which an organization attempts to estimate the demand for labor and evaluate the size, nature and sources of supply which will be required to meet the demand. Human resource planning starts with a future projection of the required number and types of employees to achieve the organizations goals. Planning also includes job analysis that consists of the preparation of job descriptions and job specifications. Also law and regulation of a country is very important to be accounted for this type of planning.

B. Problems identification:
In this project, well try to examine one of the human resource management processes that is human resource planning, because it is such an important function that is very often neglected.The overall human resource management process comprises the following programs: human resource planning, recruitment, selection, professional development, performance appraisal, and compensation . Human resource planning includes creating an employer brand, retention strategy, absence management strategy, flexibility strategy, talent management strategy, and recruitment and selection strategy. Current practices which are being followed in the organization are not inclusive all of these points because of lack of proper forecasting and planning processes. Due to this issue many of the managers complain that they have no one ready to fill vacancies, employees complain that promotion decisions are due. Also overall productivity of the organization gets affected by lack of proper human resource. So human resource planning and estimating future staffing requirement is very important to an organization

C. Rationale and benefit in terms of skills, knowledge practice and system:

HR Forecasting attempts to determine the supply and demand for various types of human resources, and to predict areas within the organization where there will be labor shortages or surpluses. It consists of three major steps: 1. Forecasting the demand for labor 2. Determining labor supply 3. Determining labor surpluses and shortages Every stage can be done by some set of methods or techniques. Demand analysis can be done by Managerial Estimates, sales Projections, Simulations, Vacancy Analysis. Supply analysis can be done by succession or replacement Charts, skills inventories, labor Market Analysis, Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix), personnel Ratios. In this project well study, understand and try to apply these concepts and statistical methods to analyze demand and supply of labor for a particular company. Itll be helpful for researchers as well as organizations both. This project will help to understand theoretical knowledge for researchers and these can be tested against real life situations in organizations.

PGDM(Ex) 2013-14

Group 10

TERM II

Human Resource Planning & Forecasting:

D. Research Problem:
The research problem is identified is the demand and supply analysis as a part of the human resource planning which is the most important aspect of the organization. The organization is dynamic and it keep on changing in terms of employees count, because of the recruitment and the attrition the number of the employees keep on increasing and decreasing. Sometimes due to these reasons there is a kind of gap which gets created and that gap is formed because the employee were not actually recruited as there is an attrition happens. And the organization actually sometimes fails to forecast these situations. The employee recruitment is the most challenging because in the present scenario it is difficult to get the desired candidates in a short span of time. So if organizations can forecast their demand and supply of labor before actual crisis happens, theyll be in a better position to plan accordingly and business flow as well as productivity will remain intact or may improve. Markov analysis and Skill inventory methods has their practical approach which can help in the clear quantification of the employee gap. Well try to build a model of forecasting using these statistical techniques.

E. Research Design:
a) This will be a qualitative and quantitative research hence the research universe will be a listed company and its employees. b) Our research will mostly deal with the primary data which would be collected from the human resource department or Human Resource Information System (HRIS) of the company or it also can be collected from the interviews of the employees. c) The research data will be analyzed by the help of Solver in MS-Excel and if necessary by the help of statistical tools like SPSS , STATA etc. d) The outcome will be forecasting of demand and supply for the specific organization. This model can be applied to any other organizations also provided all sufficient data can be collected. F. Time Frame: The time frame would be of 2.5 months duration wherein the data collection, data analysis and the report generation will be done.

Questionnaire 1. What is the common method you use in your organisation for human resource forecasting?The forecasting may be applicable for monthly, quarterly or yearly.

PGDM(Ex) 2013-14

Group 10

TERM II

Human Resource Planning & Forecasting:

2. What are the labour demand analysis you chose to forecast demand in your organisation or availability of skilled labour, simultaneous in the job market or else where? 3. What are the available tools or the supply analysis in your organisation? 4. What are the general variance in your analysis and actual demand, i.e. demand gap. 5. What are the common areas demand analysis through internal job postings or attritions in the organisation? 6. What are the models of demand gap analysis which are generally followed in your organisation? 7. Considering the organisational chart what are the different positions which requires the maximum amount of time to be get filled? what are the strategies you apply to make sure that the work continuity remains constant? 8. What are the challenges do you face in analysing the demand analysis? 9. What are the different factors which are applicable to analyse demand and supply or labour in your organisation? 10. What are your innovations in forecasting demand and supply of employees, how do you cope up with the change in the organisation's policy related to the demand analysis?

PGDM(Ex) 2013-14

Group 10

TERM II