Concept note on Predictive buying Introduction: World is changing very fast, so as business scenario.

technology is bringing change so fast that. With the increase in purchasing power of the common masses there is a revolution on the way in the retail sector. Marketeers have realised that purchasing power of the customers, consumer preferences, latent need fulfillment and the convenient buying demands a unique approach to retail buying. An effective retailing operation should facilitate placement of order for products and services from home, an in-home delivery in the shortest possible time, and payment flexibility are some of the areas which can explored to bring the extra gain to evolve the retailing business. In order to define the predictive buying we need to understand the model of variables which work in analysing the predictive behaviour of a buyer.

source: Ailawadi et.al 1995. Process: Empirical model consists of many stages of data mining algorithm to predict the future scenario of the buying behaviour. Apart from theory the predictive model requires statistics and the explanatory scientific studies. Predictive analytics captures complex patterns and certain relationships. There is a method of effective predictive buying is developed by Wei Yin and Yu Shan from Wisconsin University. The model is known as QUEST - Quick, Unbiased, Efficient statistical tree model. There are five variables which are used to determine the retailing experiences of the product. The Likert scale is also used to determine the probability of the purchase The overall prediction accuracy is found to be 72.33 per cent, which can be considered as very good (Graf and Meister, 2003).

Juster scale is also used to express the purchase probability of the sample of the consumers from a population. In New Zealand several studies have been done to analyse the purchase behaviour of the consumers from Cars to fast moving goods. Alternative predictors socioeconomic and demographic based probabilistic scale was developed by Juster 1960, Heald 1970, Juster suggest using 11 point probability scale. He insisted that instead of giving directly probability decision making capability to the respondents, the researcher should give the other options which can precisely explain the buying plans of the respondents. Juster conducted various survey and came across a 10 point scale which was both qualitative and quantitative kind of scale. 6 months, 12 months and 24 months probability were obtained for the automobiles. The probabilities were made with peaks like from 0 to 0.5. Juster found that this type of probability data was more useful

in analyzing the data. Pickering and Isherwood (1974) have collected data with 386 household interviews The accuracy of the purchase prediction was compiled with the Juster scale. The Actual level of purchase was

show in as the table. with the Juster scale many product were had 43% of buying prediction five of them had 10% of

actual purchase. One clear result emerged as a correlation with the purchased product and (r=0.55), the higher the predicted purchase rate of a product more accurately the purchase has been done. Though many of the researches related to fast moving durables, goods and daily consumption products were not found much accurate by this method but it has been proved much successful in predicting the car purchase.