Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam as ASEAN Chair
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 30, 2009

[client name deleted]

Question. Among the challenges that you told me in the previous email (to ensure that
consensus prevails and that ASEAN moves forward, to oversee the expanding relationship
with China and the US, to play a major role in investment and service negotiations with
India..), what would be the most difficult or significant task for Vietnam and why?
Answer: The most challenging task for Vietnam as Chair of ASEAN will be to bridge the
differences that have emerged among members about how to implement the ASEAN Charter
to make the decisions of the Association more binding and effective especially in sensitive
areas such as human rights and religious freedom. ASEAN’s principle of non-interference in
the internal affairs of another country has often been used as a shield to avoid taking action.
Up to now ASEAN has followed a consensual style of decision-making that means one
member can block progress on which other members have agreed. Now, under the Charter,
ASEAN has the possibility of making decisions by majority. The problem is how to make
binding agreements and get all members to implement what has been agreed. The failure to
maintain a working consensus in ASEAN would harm the Association’s development. For
example, several influential Indonesians have become increasingly critical about ASEAN
inaction. They have proposed that regional leadership be placed in the hands of the six Asian
countries who are members of the Group of 20.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam’s Role as ASEAN
Chair in 2010
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 22,, 2009

[client name withheld]

1- Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will officially take over the ASEAN
presidency in 2010 from Thailand (in Hua Hin) this week. In your view, what would be the
main challenges and opportunities (both political and economic benefits) brought about to
Vietnam by this mission? How will this position affect Vietnam’s voice in international forums
as well as in bilateral relations with big partners including the US and China?
ANSWER: Vietnam will assume the ASEAN Chair at a very important turning point in the
Association’s development. The ASEAN Charter has come into effect and some of its
provisions need elaboration. Vietnam has stated that ASEAN is its top foreign policy priority.
As ASEAN Chair Vietnam will have to use all of its diplomatic skills to ensure that consensus
prevails and that ASEAN moves forward. The question of Myanmar’s plans to hold elections
in 2010 is a case in point. Several original members of ASEAN, as well as democratic states
in the international community, would like to see Aung San Suu Kyi freed from house arrest, a
process of national reconciliation, and free and fair elections. If there is no real progress on
the Myanmar issue it will continue to affect ASEAN’s cohesion and its relations with
democratic great powers.
As from next year, Vietnam as ASEAN Chair will be the focal point for diplomacy by the great
powers. Vietnam will have to oversee the expanding relationship with China while dealing with
the return of the United States to multilateral diplomacy. As Vietnam has demonstrated by its
presidency of the United Nations Security Council it has the diplomatic skills to maneuver
between the great powers for the benefit of ASEAN.
There are a number of proposals on the table to upgrade regional security architecture.
Australia and the new government in Japan have both tabled proposals for an Asia Pacific
community and East Asia Community respectively. Vietnam will have to use all its diplomatic
skills to ensure that ASEAN is not marginalized if any of these proposals comes to fruition.
On the economic front, Vietnam can play a positive role by signing the ASEAN-India Free
Trade Agreement (FTA) in goods once India recognizes Vietnam as a market economy. Then
Vietnam should play a major role in negotiating with India a mutually acceptable opening of
up markets in investments and services with a FTA.
2- Do you have any recommendations for the government of Vietnam to make its upcoming
presidency a success, particularly in the context that ASEAN bloc is striving for measures to
reach its target of building an ASEAN community by 2015?
ANSWER: Vietnam was one of the early countries in ASEAN to make proposals for the socio-
economic pillar of the ASEAN Community to be realized by 2020. Vietnam can continue to
play a leadership role in developing this pillar by making ASEAN a more people-orientated
organization. Vietnam will be handed the “hot potato” of implementing the terms of reference
for the ASEAN Inter-governmental Commission on Human Rights. Some members want the
new body to promote the protection of human rights, others see this as interference in their
internal affairs. Vietnam will have to find an acceptable middle ground.
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ASEAN members are also divided about the role and participation of civil society
organizations (CSO). Vietnam surprised many observers at the 14th ASEAN Summit held in
March this year when President Nguyen Minh Triet made an intervention during a heated
meeting between ASEAN and CSO representatives. President Triet supported the creation of
a mechanism to support dialogue. Thailand, as Chair, was the only other ASEAN member to
express support. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has also supported the idea of a dialogue
between ASEAN and CSO representatives under an appropriate guideline. Now Vietnam as
the next ASEAN Chair will have to make good on this suggestion by developing a plan of
action.
3- What do you think of the contributions that Vietnam has made to ASEAN since it joined
this association in 1995 and the current role that Vietnam play in the association? In your
opinion, is it possible that Vietnam will be able to play a leading role in ASEAN in the future? If
yes, in which fields?
ANSWER: Vietnam has made several important contributions to ASEAN since in joined in
1995. When Vietnam first assumed the ASEAN Chair in 2001 it promoted the Hanoi
Declaration on narrowing the development gap between old and new members. This resulted
in what is known as the Initiative for ASEAN Integration in which priority was given to
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam to develop infrastructure and human resources, and
information and communications technology.
Vietnam has played a very useful role in ensuring that the South China Sea remains a region
of “peace, cooperation and development.” Vietnam led ASEAN members in negotiating the
2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea with China.
Vietnam has contributed to developing ASEAN’s relations with its dialogue partners. First,
Vietnam was the ASEAN interlocutor for relations with Russia (1997-00). It then became the
ASEAN Coordinator for relations with the United State (2000-03) and Australia (at present).
Vietnam was not only instrumental in arranging the ASEAN-Australia and New Zealand
Summit in Vientiane in late 2004 but in coaxing a reluctant Australian government to sign the
ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in mid-2005.
Finally, Vietnam has provided ideas and support for the development of the socio-cultural
pillar for the establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2020. The ASEAN Community has
three pillars, the others being political-security and economic.
Vietnam’s economic growth and its political stability have marked it as the country to watch in
the coming years. Many world leaders see Vietnam emerging as an important leader in
regional affairs, not only because of its domestic accomplishments, but because of its proven
record in international diplomacy. Vietnam can positively contribute to regional and
international “peace, cooperation and development” by advancing the interests of developing
countries especially on issues such as mitigating the effects of climate change, disaster
management, food and energy security, and education and human resource development.
Vietnam will have its role cut out for it because under the new ASEAN Charter it must host
two summits next year. The first has already been scheduled for April in Ho Chi Minh City.
The second ASEAN summit will be an enlarged event including an ASEAN Summit with its
dialogue partners, and the East Asian Summit in October.