Temperature and Precipitation Trends in the U.S. from 1931-2000 Christina Lees 1.

Introduction: The global climate change has devoted many people to study this problem, but not much important evidence has turned out about global warming. On average the Earth's temperature has risen 1.4oF within the past century and will continue to rise over the next hundred years (EPA 2013). Also, with the climate changing many places have seen a difference in their rainfall, resulting by having more floods, droughts, intense rain, and having more frequent heat waves (EPA 2013). With this study of climate change we are noticing that the ice caps are melting and the sea levels are increasing. Al Gore states that the CO2 levels in Antarctic ice coring are higher than ever over the past 650,000 years (Gore's movie 2005). The carbon dioxide levels are higher than before because of us the humans, driving cars and our everyday life. In the Canadian temperature and precipitation study they analyzed using station data (Zhang et al 2000) which is used in this study as well. Zhang et al stayed with the Canadian regions while this study uses American regions. We intend to detect the climatic changes for the four regions of the U.S. by their yearly annual mean temperature and annual total precipitation.

2. Methods: 2.1 Data and study areas The data that was used in this lab was collected over a 70 year time frame. The data that was used came from the Northeast, North Central, South Atlantic, and Pacific West Regions. The Northeast Region consists of Maine, New York, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. The North Central Region consists of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, and Wyoming. The South Atlantic Region consists of Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The Pacific West Region consists of Washington, Oregon, and California. In the Northeast and North Central the climate conditions are mainly the same having the four different seasons because these regions are closer to the Arctic so they get colder. However, South Atlantic being the closest region to the equator it is warmer all year round than the other regions, and the Pacific West temperature is cooler than the South Atlantic and warmer than the seasonal change in the Northeast and North Central. 2.2 Statistical analysis To improve the R-square results, we made a five year moving average to smooth out the curves to show a clearer direction. We put the data into a summary output that told us the regression statistics, ANOVA, and the intercepts and X variables. In this summary we were able

to calculate the P-value and the Significance F value. With these values we will be able to see if the relationship is incorrect, which will indicate that the trend line is statistically significant. When the R-squared value is smaller than 0.05 then that means there is no statistically significant trend line.

3. Results: 3.1 Northeast The climate change for this region had not much of an significant difference as seen in figure 1. Also, for the annual precipitation this region did not have a significant difference as seen in figure 3. This region's R-square value was not the largest in the annual temperature (Figure 1) and annual precipitation (Figure 3) compared to the other three regions, so we could not calculate the P value for this region. In the 5 year moving average of annual temperature graph, this region does not have a large enough R-square value to calculate a significant F value. In figure 4, the moving average for annual precipitation this region R-square value was close to significant, but was too small to have a significant value that was worth calculating. The trend in all graphs is not statistically significant because all the R-squared values are smaller than 0.05. 3.2 North Central The climate change for this region had not much of an significant difference as seen in figure 1 and figure 2, so there is no significant trend because the R-squared values are smaller than 0.05. Also, for the annual precipitation this region did not have a significant difference as seen in figure 3. This region's R-square value was the smallest in the annual temperature (Figure 1) and in the annual precipitation (Figure 3) has the highest R-squared value equaling 0.134. For the annual precipitation in the summary output the P value was less than 0.005 and the significance of F was 0.001773. This trend line is gradually increasing in figure 3 and 4 because the R-squared values are greater than 0.05. Also, in the 5 year moving average of annual precipitation graph, the R-square value is significant. This value is significant because the P value and significance F is 0.000000031. 3.3 South Atlantic In all the graphs, this region did not have a significant climate change throughout the 70 years and the 5 year moving average of temperature and precipitation. The trend in all graphs is not statistically significant because all the R-squared values are smaller than 0.05. 3.4 Pacific West The climate change for this region had not much of an significant difference as seen in figure 3 and figure 4, so there is no significant trend because the R-squared values are smaller

than 0.05. However, in figure 1 this region has the largest R-square value which equals 0.2943. With the R-squared value the P value ends up being less than 0.005. This leads the significance F value to be 0.00000123 which leads to an increasing trend line. In the 5 year moving average of annual temperature, the trend line is also increasing because the R-squared values are greater than 0.05. The significance F value is the smallest significant value out of all the four regions consisting of 0.000000000000403 (Figure 2).

4. Discussion: The study that was conducted here was to help us understand that climate change could be occurring. This study that was conducted is similar to others because these types of studies take regions and study their weather patterns to conclude what is happening because we need to find out what is possible causing this climate change to occur. The EPA is conducting these types of studies in many different regions coming out with the same results that was drawn from this study. With the results that we got we were able to conclude that there could definitely be a slight climate change happening within the past 70 years of these regions. Our results compared with Al Gore's results are similar because he also believes that the climate is changing and has scientific evidence that it is. Al Gore believes that the ocean water is warming up and causing the ice to melt which comes back to our study because with the land getting warmer the ocean absorbs most of that heat causing the ice to melt. In the regions that do not have a significant trend in temperature could possibly be the oceans that the regions are next too and the wind directions. Also, for the regions with no trend line for precipitation could be because humidity. In a follow up study, researchers could focus on the temperature of the ocean and see how much the water has increased over the years. They would see if the surrounding continents would have such an effect on the temperature in the ocean.

5. Supporting Data:

Raw Data of Mean Annual Temperature

65 60 y = -0.0081x + 61.792 R = 0.0305 y = 0.0299x + 52.373 R = 0.2943 y = -0.0015x + 47.487 R = 0.0004 y = -0.002x + 46.589 R = 0.0012 NE N Central S Atlantic Pacific W Linear (NE) Linear (N Central) 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 NE N Central y = 0.0304x + 52.41 R = 0.5632 y = -0.0027x + 47.41 R = 0.0062 y = -0.0031x + 46.547 R = 0.0114 S Atlantic Pacific W Linear (NE) 50 45 40 Linear (N Central) Linear (S Atlantic) Linear (Pacific W)

Temperature (oF)

55 50 45 40

1963

1931

1935

1939

1943

1947

1951

1955

1959

1967

1971

Figure 1

5 Year Moving Average of Annual Temperature

65 y = -0.0075x + 61.711 R = 0.0598

Temperature (oF)

60 55

Figure 2

1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

1975

Raw Data of Mean Annual Precipitation

60 55 50 Precipitation (inches) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 y = 0.0664x + 23.873 R = 0.1347 y = 0.0425x + 40.051 R = 0.0411 y = 0.0197x + 26.211 R = 0.0087 y = 0.0261x + 47.958 R = 0.0135 NE N Centeral S Atlantic Pacific W Linear (NE) Linear (N Centeral) Linear (S Atlantic) Linear (Pacific W)

1983

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1987

1991

1995

Figure 3

5 Year Moving Average of Annual Precipitation

60 55

1999 NE

Precipitation (inches)

50 45 40 35 30 25 20

y = 0.0268x + 48.175 R = 0.0642

N Centeral S Atlantic Pacific W

y = 0.0419x + 40.16 R = 0.1199 y = 0.0187x + 26.317 R = 0.0275 y = 0.0663x + 24.06 R = 0.3827

Linear (NE) Linear (N Centeral)

1943

1971

1935

1939

1947

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

Figure 4

1999

6. Reference Cited: An Inconvenient Truth. Dir. Davis Guggenheim. Perf. Al Gore. Paramount Pictures Corp., 2005. DVD. "Basics." EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d. Web. 11 Mar. 2013 Zhang, Xuebin, Lucie A. Vincent, W. D. Hogg, and Ain Niitsoo. 2000. Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 38(3):395-429