ESTIMATION O R ER E S E R V E

M E T H O D SM , O D E L SA N D R E A L I T Y
Proceedings of the Symposium sponsored by The Geology Division of ClM, a n d h e l d i n M o n t r e a l ,Q u e b e c , M a y 1 O - 1 1 , 1 9 8 6 , . J . S i n c l a i ra n d M - V a l l 6 e E d i t e d b y M . D a v i d , R . F r o i d e v a u xA

T H E C A N A D I A NI N S T I T U T E O F M I N I N GA N D M E T A L L U R G Y

135

A COTTPARATIVE STUDY OF HETHODS AI{D COTil/ENTIONAI, GMSTATISTICAL RESER\IES AND QUhLrrr ESTTilATTNG SE,AT'T IN A THIN @AL

OF

P. J. HANNON Elepartment Nova Scotia of Mines and Erergy

and

H. G. SHERWOOD Technical- University of Nova Seotia

ABSTRACT of a This paper gives the results compari-son of three methods of esti(ash, m at ing c oa l re s e rv e s a n d q u a l i ty at the now sulphur and energy content) mined out Novaco Poi.nt Aconj. opencast The mine in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. predicting in reserves the accuracy in s i tu coal th e and qualit y of r es our c es , a s w e l l a s th e a c c u racy i n coal mineable s elec t ing economically the tonnage and compared with is qualit y of c o a l a c tu a l l y mi n e d . estimation techniques The three compared were: 1rc1-ygon; inver se-di s tance- squared and weighting; kriging. esti T he c o a l re s e rv e w a s fi rs t data hole mated using diamond drill prior to the commencement of available all that found study mining. This techniques overestimated estimating polygon bY the method the tonnage; by inverse-distance-squared 23* | the by only 12*. 26* and kriging al l using e s ti ma te second A hole d a ta w a s made, av ailable d ri l l and again the three methods overestithis time bY 1 4t ' nated the tonnage, 11t and 4t. economThe accuracy in selecting in w a s s tu d i ed coal m in e a b l e ic ally mined The tonnage actually one area. sample s f rom channe I vtas computed This cycle. the mining taken during tonnage to the esti'rnated \'ras comlnred again predicted by the three methods, pri or h o l e d a ta a v a i l a b l e us ing dr ill

d r ill to mi ni ng and then al l avai l abl e methods indidata. A11 three hole close approximation cated a reasonably amount of coal available of the tota1 est ibl ock i ndi vi dual the how ever, by when predicted mates were superior method inverse-distance-squared the and kriging. of a sound geologThe importance The coa l is i cal base i s emphasi zed. ltorien in the Pennsylvanian found At Group Sydney t'tain ( garbour ) Seam. the SYdneY Main Seam is Aconi, Point two seams separated by a thin actually seam is The top mudstone parting. of because ei ther absent, l ocal l y The deP osi ti on. non or erosi on discontinuous the to take failure account into seam the top of nature overconsiderable a to lead would reserve. coal of the esti mati on RESU![E r6sultats les donne Ce papier rnethodes de trois d I une comparaison de charbon des reserves d t estimation ( cendre, soufr e et et de l eur qual i td de a la mine calorifique contenu ) Bretont a CaP Aconi Novaco a Point des Lr exacti tude N ouvel l e-E cosse. qualit d et l e des r6" .trr.s predi cti ons " i n char bont de si tu" des resources a selectionner aussi qlue 1r exaetitude qui dconorniQU r sont est charbon le du compares avec le tonnage et qualitd charbon mine en rdalit5, comparees techniques trois Les sont: la la mdthode des lnlYgiones; mdthode des distances

1985 CI M Sl tm Po s i u m O r e r es er v e e s ti m a ti -o n : m et hods , m o d e l s a n d re a l i tY.

136

c ar rd i n v e rs e s la m 6 th o d e g e o s ta ti s ti q u e de krigeage , Les r e s e rv e s d e c h a rb o n o nt 6t6 premidrement estj-m6es avec l-es donnees de forage qui etaient connues avant l_e commencement de minage. Cette dtude a / que toutes trouve les methodes ont surestime le tonnaget la methode des poly gones p a r 2 3 t r. l a m e th o d e chargd des dis t anc e s " " rrJ " i n v e rs e s p ar 262 | et la *6thod" par de krigeage s eulem ent 1 2 * " Une s e c o n d e e s ti ma ti o n , u ti l i sant toutes les donnees de forage connues, /. / a et d f ait e o e t l e s tro i s md th o des ont encore surestimds les r6"*rrre=, cette fois par 14*, 11*, et 4*. Les estimations de qualitJ du ( c e n d re , c har bon s o u fre et contenu calorifique) indiquent un modele semqu o i q u e l e s v a l e u rs e s ti m ds et blable, les v aleur s re e l s s o n t p l u s p re s , avec 1r exceptj-on du contenu de eendre . Lr ex a c ti tu d e d e l a s 5 l e c ti on du charbon economique a 6td etudiJ dans un endroit. L tonnage qui a 6td min6 a 6t6 evalud donnees des avec les p ri s ec hant illons en voiesn e n cours de minage. entre ce Un comparaison par resultat et les tonnages estimds fa i te r n se les t r ois a 6& * 6 th o d ." s er v ant de s d o n n e e s d e fo ra Ee s uti l i sable av ant l e mi n a g e , e t d e to u t es l es donndes de fo ra g e u ti l i s a b l e s . Les un indiqudes trois ont toutes mdthodes pour le raisonnable approximation e s ti ma ti o n s des l e s t onnage, ma i s avec s o n t rn e i l l e u rs bloc s indiv i d u e l s carr6s distances des les *6thod*s et du krigeagre . inverses d ru n b a s e g Sol ogi que Lr im po rta n c e se est appuyd. T-,e charbon solide groupe de I'Age Morien, trouve dans le dans la couche Sydney Pennsylvanian, la Ac o ni , A Point I r { ain ( havre ). deux couche Sydney t{ain est en fait ="p.r6s couches, Par une mince couche argild . L6l couche en haut n I est pas ou 1 t d ro s ion de c ont inue, a cause 6t6 que parce nr a pas charbon le A \ defaut e n d ro i ts . depos e a c e rta i n s a tte n ti o n a c e d i s p osi ti on de f air e un d e Ia c o u c h e s u p 6 ri e u re, dis c ont inu sures timation c o n s i d e ra b L e des

INTRODUCTION paper is to The purpose of this evaluate the coal reserve estimati.on technique used in Nova Scotia and to present the resul ts of a detailed com;rarison of estimation methods f,or the coal reserve of the Novaco Point Aconi opencast coal mine " Novaco Point Aconi mine is near the western edge of the Sydney coalfi el dr or B oul arderi e Is1and, app r oximatel y 18 km northw est of S ydney, Nova The coal mined is Scotia (rigure 1 ). from the Sydney Main (Harbour) seam, seams of the 2000 one of the mineable age Morien m thick r Pennsylvanian Group. earl y B etw een 1 985, 19B O and coal were of thermal 875 578 tonnes from the mine to the Lingan shipped generating of the Nova Scotia station The weighted averPower Corporation, of this coal over the five age quality ( 1 O, 6 4 2 year period w a s 2 4 . 7 5 t a lB q Btu/lb"), 4.'79* sullphur and 16.11t ash. tonnage and qualitY The original for the rnine was 925 300 estimate gradi ng 27 .45 M J/ kg , tonnes of coal 5 . 0 t s u l p h u r a n d 16 . 4 t a s h . between the agreement The close is values the actual and estimate The originalsornewhat misleading ' to was estimated ratio strip overall (U3/tonne however, coal); be 1'l.4:1 to 16:1. ratio was closer the actual to was required ratio strip The higher coal than expected make up for thinner in the original Plan drl o 1983 a di scussion In A ugust of of using paper on the applicability geostatistics to the Sydney coalfield This bY C A I{ I' i E T (1). w as rel eased paper used data from the Novaco Point maP of a kriEed to obtain Aconi pit and suggested that the coal thickness, might be usetechnique the estimation as a rnapping aid fot the geoteehful The of the coal fi el d. features ni cal and l'lines of Department Nova Scotia of University Energy and the Technical coma ( tmqs ) undertook Nova Scotia estirnating of reserve parative study Aconi the Novaco Point methods using driIl hole data.

r5*er.r"s

de charbon resulterait.

137

L E G E N D
fr-I lf L l ' , l o r i e nS e r r e s , P t y c h o c o r p u s u n r t u s t o n e { A n l h r o c o m y o r d n e ) qrey scndsione ond shole,thrn beds of lreshwoter lrmeslone, Inlercololed red beds,workoble cool seoms M o r e n S e r i e s , L r n o p l e I s o b l r q u oz o n :g r e y o r k o s i c q r r t o n d s o n d s t o n e ,s o m e s h o l e o n c c o n g l o m e r o l e , o f e w r e d b e d s , o l e w workoble cool ssoms M o r r e n S e r r e s , L o n c h o p l e r r s z o n e . g r e y c o o g l o m e r o l e ,o r k o s i c I g r r l o n d s h o l e ,o l e w r e d b 0 d s , l h r n c o o l s e o m s

, *--l

-l T - l ' *Z I

\9 \' r ? \!,
r\i

\^
t i

,?
l6 IE
\-o

\<

'r$e^

)-l{? *i
!:?
r MINES

Figure

1.

rnap ehowing the general Aeoni location Point geology, Novaco opencast mine and adj acent coal rnine operations o charaeterized by rapid subsidence and early burial of peat beds. There rdere two maj or rivers traversing t-his f lood plain, along with numerous snaLl-er streams now preserved as sandstone channel s. rest on a clay The coal s pl-ant which bed contain the root systems" The occasi onal coal fi eld tree is still standing upright in the coal bed " were uniform Conditions not across the Basin duringr the growth of (3); parts of the Basin the vegetati on while areas might other were thriving with mud. be covered The higher ground was Located in the western part a nd a A coni area), of the B asi n (poi nt that the here is eommon characteristie and eventor subdivide seams split pinch out. ually the Aconi SydneY t'tain At Point two se;rns seSnrated Sean is actually lrhe mudstone by a thin trnrting. during peat was eut by a river deposit by the sanddeposition as evideneed stone channel near the eastern edge of Figure the mined area ( Figure 3 2l . the throuEh cross-seetion is a deposi t. C ross-bedded sands are evi-

GEOLOGICAL FRAMEI{ORK point The Novaco Aconi reserve occurs in the Sydney D.tain Seam, near the western edge of the Sydney coal bas in. T he S y d n e y M a i n S e a m i s one of a dozen significant coal seams in the upper part of the pennsylvanian Morien Series of Westphalian C and D age (2, 3). Five ki-lometers to the west, the Pennsylvanian is in fault contaet precambrian with the River George and the Cape Breton Series ltighlands ( 2) . dips gently to ttre coal section the northeast under the Atlantie O c ean. ttre axis of ttre Boisdale antieline trends the aeross northeast western edge of the Novaco pit, but in general the structure of the property is very simple. fhe Morien Group is s u rfi ci al c ov er ed by 1 2 to 15 m o f t ill ln t he m i n e a re a . ( 3) and Donaldson Hacquebard environment reported of coal on the the and Basin delnsition in Sldney eoneluded the that eoal aecumulated from forest-moor and reed-moor vegetation pl-ain in a f lood environment

138

LJ

lrJ

o o

F ro

o o o (f,

UJ O rf) rf

td

l-oj

o O o

o o

rf)

rl) a

2 500

2 0 0 0N

t 5 0 0N

Figure 2.

(West half)

dent thror.lgh the section, much of indi-cating environment. a deltaic at Point lftre bottorn coal horizon Aconi has an ari ttrrnetic average thicknes s of 0. 6 5 m a s m e a s u re d fro m dri l l hole samples. The top seam averages (from drill hole samples) 0.43 m in p resent, but is only loeally t hic k nes s part generally of the in the eastern preparting is the Where area. mine fro m m p a rti n g v a ri e s 0.03 t he s ent , at the i s c o m m o n t o 1. 23 r r r e y ri te top of the coal seams and in the partcomes f rom ing " tlost of the sulphur pyrite, some couLd come from although mi n e ra l s l q ypsum). s u l p h a te c alc ium At the Mine, Lingan and Agterberg Chung (4) found that the top 25 em of

of the Harbour Searn a 2.21 m section ( Sydney iltain seam ) had 3 . 7 3* sulphur ' section the of remainder the while S ul P hur i n the t oP contai ned 2.5* . (7 1t ) ' from pyri te secti on w as deri ved (ZZ*) and gypsum ( 7t ) . The organics '! the seam contained .96 m of loroer (S gt of total and sul phur) onl y pyri te organic sulphur (4tt). of the coal- at The ash content point is variable r increasing Aconi of the mined area to from the niddle Nilr the western the east and west. edgre of the mined area the ash content as the top seam disapproaehes 30t, pinch out or erosi-on. appears through The coal- from the Sydney lltain Seam is eoal wj-th bituminous a hiqh volatile

L39

Ld

o o o (o

IJ

LrJ

IJ

O tO (o

o o o
ft*

rO f-

o o

o o (I)
l"*

2500 N

2000 N

I 5 O ON

Areol extent of top seom

SCOTIA DEPARTMENT MINES ANDENERGY

o
l t t

200
t

400
. _ l

POINIT ACONI O P E NC A S T C O A LM I N E (NOVACO L I MI TE D)

NTSII.K-8

m e tr e s
Figure 2.

April1985

The outline of thermined pit, dri 11 hole locations f,eaturs. according sulphur, c l a s s i fi c a ti o n of

out areas of the Novaco and topographical

hiqh ash and hiqh to t he A ST !{ (5 ) coaLs. I.{ININc

A Powder a 5 m by 6.'l m trnttern. factor of approximately O.2 kq AHrO/m3

w as used. The rock was then removed using a Model- 38O W walking dragBueyrus-Erie rernoved the rock The dragline line . about A"2 m of the toP of to within was rock coal. The remaining the using a small dozer " {the coal cleared 235 was then mined using a Caterpillar )-oading into 10 t tandemexcavator, \tas dunp trucks. The eoal wheeled it plant where the to on-site taken transport for stacked and $ras crushed to the Nova Scotia Power Corporation generati nq at Li nqan. stati on

were removed and till Itre topsoil using Caterpillar 627r_ tandem-powered wheel tractor except near scrapers, pit the edge of the rv?rere Cat D-10 l-tining dozers removed the overburden. at the began with a down dip box-cut property, eastern then edge of the progressed mining using along-strike strips. fhe rock above ttre coal was liqhtly to within blasted 0.25 m of the top of the coal, using ANFO loaded int o on 250 mm d i a n n e te r h o l e s d ri l l ed

140

[FEl tr-:1 " EC

overburden shole shote ond sondstone

illr-...ji.--]fl' **..ti
:1:

iff

=-'*#'
..:._.\---+,':ii:Itn
::ji:ir, .,:j:L,.tiji j j';..

hIl sirtsrone IFJ ,onostone

. .1.,:j j,t i;i.it:.., i:i ir,.. r a..----TF r!1:i.:::.. :::.:.: . r::.:.j:1i:I:-F.!

: i:ii : ::,:rrjirr i:r:::t1 , j.:,:::;:i: ...
.

iir':.i:#I='l'tooi riciion

7.2o/o Ash 4 37o S 32 63 MJ,/kg

N o v o S c o l i o D e o o r l m e n fo f M i n e s o n d E

jr:j j i

.:.....,

:.:.'riri.....:.'........'I:il:Jjj.:

''. .r:.

Novoco Poinl Aconi Opencost

melres too

Cool Mine G E O L O G I C A L C R O S S- S E C T I O N
P. Honnon

Figure

3.

A grid through

south-northr the eastern

( looking cross section portion of the Novaco

west) pit"

AVAILABLE DATA T he o ri g i n a l re s e rv e e s ti m ati on for Novaco used information from three s et s of dr il l h o l -e d a ta . The Department of llines dri lled a series (5 holes, D-Series) of holes in the area duri.ng the 1960' s . A second (tS holes, series of holes R-Series) was dr illed in thi rd 1 9 74 , a n d th e series of 15 holes was drilled and q t es t pit s w e re d u g i n 1 9 7 9 a n d 1980. On1-y the holes drilled after 1979 r"ere geophysieally 1-ogged. The average core recovery in the coal section rdas in the order of 80*. A further 28 diamond dri 11 hoLes were dri lled i-n rotary 1980 and 19 8 1 a n d , i n a d d i ti o n , holes vrere dri lled through the coal prior the to test for to each blast top of ttre coal horizon. Table 1 hole data availsummarizes the drill for estimates. ttre reserve The able estidata available for the reserve not nate i.s certainLy l-ess than ideal; the mining in an uncommon situation industryt COAL RESERVE ESTII.{ATION PRESENTLY USED IN NOVA SCOTIA and lt{ines of The Department presently polygon uses the Energy method to esti-mate coal reserves r The maximum distance between obeervation

poi nts conforms to the C l assj -fi cation for and Reserves of Coal- Resources Canada ( 6) . maxirnum distanee tttis depends upon the eharacteristics of the seam being evaluated: the thj-ckness of the seun, the resource category, and whether or not the seam is on shore. Por the Sydney Main Seam, this distance is a maximum of 800 m for the measured cateEoryo and 1600 m for the indieated category of resource classification. the For the point Aconi deposie, hole spaei-ng at the time average drillwas reserve calcul-ation of the initial 117 m; how ever, the range of di stance ltas f,ron 50 rn to holes between drill of the coal over 600 rr o Even so r all vras elassed i.n the measured category. COMPARJATIVESTUDY OF RESERVE ESTI},IATES estirnated studY comparison the qual-ity the in and reserve the eoal ttre origimined, using area actmalLy for sulphur, data diannond drill nal and eoal thiekness ash, energy content ( table ttre methods used \,tere the 1) . distance the inverse method, lnlygon and the krigsquared mettrod (r.D"s.), Table 2 ing rnethod of geostatisties. the estiof the results summarizes hol e i nforma t ion mates usi ng the dri l L and the production, prior to availabLe d r il- 1 avai l abl -e al -1 usi ng esti mates

L4L
COAL THICKNESS T O PS E A M F I R S TH O L E S

.roo .o75

trrnl

.o50

.o2
.oo238
t47 294 44?

h (m)

COAL TH.ICKNESS TOP SEAM ALL HOLES

I(h)

h(m)
COAL THICKNESS L O W E RS E A M F I R S TH O L E S 30.

C O A LE N E R G Y

h) tr(

20.oo

t37

274

4tO

347

684

t37

274

412

549

h (m)
COAL THICKNESS L O W E RS E A M ALL HOLES 5.OO 4.OO 300

h (m)
COAL SULPHUR

o.05 o.o4 o.o3

t trtn
o. o2 o.ol

Ttnt
2.OO l.oo
r 3r7 ls z 2t7 '+ 4 q c2 ' 4t1 549 686

189

284

379

471

h(m) Figure 4.

m) ) h (m

hole data Semivariogram nodels based on the drilL d e e i s i o n ( first p r o d u e t i o n t h e p r i o r t o available d a ta. The h o l e 1 1 d r i l a b l e a v a i a l l o n holes ) and a r e s u l p h u r a n d e n e r g y a s h , for semivarlograns The later holes only. drill based on the first v a r i a b les. t h e e e f o r holes were not assayed

r42

TABLE 1 ST'UI{ARY OF NOVACO POINT ACONI OPENCAST I'IINE DRILL }IOLf, SAHPLE DATA
Hole Nunber

Seam rhi?kness(m). Top I Bottom

I

Ash

(r)
9.42 9 . 1 4 9.58 10.5 9.82 1 5 . O ' |1 . 2 0 8.90 6.40 7.OO 15.9 8.40 1 8 . O 6.80 45.50 7 ..2 20.4 8.50 r 3 . 1 9 10.8 2 1. A 5.9 10.3 9"10 1 1. 7 16 . 5 NA 1 4 . 3 7"60 10 . 6 10.4 9 . 1 0 9.40 4 . 1 0 NA 10.3 2 3. 4 2s.2 15.9 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

sulphur (t) 6.15 4.s8 7.AA 5 2 5 3 . . . . 3 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 I I I I | | | |

EnergY ( l.{J/Ks

D 2 3 D 2 4 D 2 5 D 2 6 D 2 7 R-1 R-18 R-18 R-1C R-2 R-2B R-2B R-3 R-3 R-38 R-4 R-48 R-48 R-4C R-5 R-5 R-58 R-58 R-6 R-7 R-8 R-9F 1-79 't-79 2-79 2 - " 19 3-7 9 4-79 4-7 9 5-79 6-7 9 7-79 7-79 B-'t 9 9-7 9 10-79 5- B0 6-80 7-80 8-80 10-80 1-81 2-81 3- 81 4-81 5- 81 6- 81 7-81 8-81 9- 81 10 - 8 1 11-81 l 2-81 1-814 2-81A 3-814 4-81 A 5-81A 6-81 A g-81 A 9-814 1O - T A 'l t -TA 12 - T A 14-TA 15-TA 16 - T A 17-TA --* NA*i Not Not

__r

I | | |

0 0 0 0

.73 .56 .41 "48

NA** 22.08 22.08

I o.58 |
o.67 |

o.za o,ss

6.6o I

zz.oe
2 2 2 2 2.08 2.08 e.1s 2.oo

o.G4 o.Gs

I | I

o.ss
o.80 o.rz

3,7o I
3.60

ro"zs
31.44

I o.s2 I
0.1e 0.86 o.16 | I | | | |

o.ez
0.73 o.24 0.7e 1 . 1 s 0.95 o.22 0.67

o.27 I
I o.34 | I

I o.s2 |
o.43 0.28 | |

.er I o o.ss
o.:r
0.43

I I
I
I
I

I
|

0.54
o.a2 0.58

I
I

0"36

o.et

I I
0.61 | |

o.rz o.ss
0.73

I I
I I
I

o.24

I
| |
|

o.zo
o.7e 0.70
1 . 2 6

o.so o.4s
o.46

I I
|

o.ea o.es
O.65

o.4s o.4s
o.50 o.40

I
I I
| |

o.60 o.eo
o.6s o.50

r.za

t
I
I I

3.50 5.40 3.30 e.30 4.30 11.0 4.40 4.52 5.30 4.40 4.20 3.eo s . 1o 6.2o 9.00 N A 7.67 4.18 7.90 4.20 4.73 G.38 1.48 N A 5.84 B.TB 8.70 6.86 N A N A
N A

6.eo I

zo"rr

| 29.19 zt.tz | | ao.ez e.rr | :z.er | za.te | :r.oo | za.ts | 30.2e | 26.5'7 | 30.9o | za.zo I zs.st I 2e.13 I 2 8. . 2 1 | I * o -I -| 2e.26 | 2s.a7 | 29.08 | za.ze | 30.58 | l " o 28.23 | I 22.e6 | 27.31 | I * o l " o
N A

N
N

A
A I

I
N

*
A

o
o
A

N
N

A
A I

l
I l l

"
N

N N N

A A A

* n n

o n a

o.4s 0.3s o.48

I I I |

o.sz 0.63 0.60 0.se

I I I o.4o I o,3s I o.31 |

o.sz
o.7o o.zo o.ez o.6s o.es o.zs

I I I
I

N
N

A
A I

I
N

*
A

N N
N N N N N N N N

A A
A A A A A A A A I I l I I I I l

l l

" o n o
N N n N N N N x A A o A A A n e

I
I I
I

"zr I o I o.s4
I
| I

o.zs
0.62 o.81

I
I I
I
I
I

N
N N N

A
A A A I I l

n
N N n

o
A A n

I
I

o.es
0.62

N N
N

A A
A I

l I
N

n o N A
A

I I I I
I present assaYed

o-zs o.zo o.er o.oa

0.59

I
I

NA NA NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA NA

L43

TABLE 2 COMPARISON OF COAL ESTIMATION METHODS NOVACO POINT ACONI DEPOSIT

l4ethod

Tonnage ( tonnes the First 35

) Holes

Energy ( MJ/Kq

Using

Po I ygon s

r.D.s. rriging
Ac tua I Using A11 Holes

5.50 4.50 5 . 1 9 4.79

2 5. 5 5 25.98 2 5. 9 1 24.75

Po I ygon s I . D . S . xriging Ac tua I

23.94 2 5. 9 1 25.89 24.75

TABLE 3 STANDARD TZED DIFFERENCE (Estinated - Actual x 100)

t'le thod

Ene rg Y ( MJIK9 ) Holes

First

Po I ygon s I . D . S . Kriging Alt Holes

+ +

15.90 5.05 8.35

+ 3.23 + 4.97 + 4.69

Po I ygons

r.D.s. Kriging

+ + +

2.30 3.34 8.14

- 3.27 + 4.69 + 4.61

144

hole dat a. l fh re i n s i tu c o a L re serves and quality were estimated, then an es t im at ed d i l u ti o n of w a s added. 5t ( fhis seems a reasonable amount of dilut ion, p o s s i bi l i ty a l th o u g h th e exists that trecovery riras actually l-ess than There are no records 1 00t. of t he ac t ual d i l u ti o n . the S i n ce ) dilution contributes to the sulphur and ash content, these were adj usted upward 5* . The di l-ution would subt r ac t f r om th e e n e rg y c o n te n t, so thi s was adj usted dovrrward St. extent The areal of the discontinuous top seam rras p1-otted on a plan il& pr us ing i n fo rma ti o n available after the first 35 holes and then replotted using all drill hole information esti'Itre southern mated. boundary of the seam ls the trace of the subcrop, while the northern boundary is the toe of the highwall-. POLYGON }IETHOD qua l ity \rere and coa I Tonnage estimated by weighting the central sample value by the area of a polyEon constructed around the central sarnple extendinE this and half way to adj acent sample sites " Only that portion polygon the coincident the with of actually mined hras used. area The first and then tonnage was estimated \,ras determined by the coaL quality the weighting the sample value by tonnage. Arr S.G" of 1.34 was used for me th o d s " all es t im at i o n I}WERSE DISTANCE METHOD Blocks 1 OO m bY 1 0O m were used in a manner sirnilar this with nethod, by Ot Brian and Weiss to that described ( ?) . for a Each value was estimated al-l- samples withblock by considering of the of the centre in a 400 m radius bloc k . KR.IGING seniestimation, For the krigi-ng ash, of ttre coal- thickness, variograms were constructed and energy sulphur using the method of, angul"ar regulari( I ) and the method of nectangzation

(9), ul -ar regul -ari -zati ons The sem j- for the varioEram data coal thi-ckness, content are ash, and energy sulphur tabulated the in Table Due to 4. the experiirreEular sarnple data, di spl -ay a ver lr mental semi -vani ograms errati c vari ance, The data base f or a good reserve i s certainl- y esti mati on g1-an ce a fi rst non-i deaI, and at geostati-stical study would seem to tre a futile exercise. Figure 4 and the experi mental i l l ustrates theoretical variogrlrns r senni-vari-ograms The experimental parti-cularl-y for the seam thi-ckness, the top seam, of the semi-va.riogrram from a laek of first holeso suffers close spaeed samples. One way to of data this sample overcome lack to the values be to assign might grid on a geo}ogical baeed sample Hovtever, of the locati-on. evaluation the it was decided to make do with avaj-lable. actual sampLe informatj-on was variogrrarn theoretical The (9) ' by found 227 5 CANI4AT program for the semi-variogram which searches the model which has the best f,it with linear by semi-variogramr experimental anal -ysi s. The rel -a t ive regressi on and the estimated between error are the for models values observed theoretical with the best tabulated, the best having curve semi-variogrram data, w i th the experi mental fi t semi-vari-ograms The experimental were energy and ash sulphur, for using these vaLues rather construeted seam the tirnes the value than both nethods were Actually thickness. did ttre aecumulation and since tried of the output' not improve the quality the simple value was used " was comestirnation The kriging into the deposit p!.eted by subdividing the estimating then areas, seven in each drE r vari.able seleeted subdivided Each area was in turn of ttre rnidpoints into 15 sub-areas; cal-eulate to these sub-areas were used between the sample area the covariance being evaluated " SFLECTTON OF MINEABLE COAL One area, bounded bY easti ng 61 00

L45

THEORETICAL First Coal 35 Holes

TABTE 4 VARIOGRAMS USED FOR KRIGTNG

Thickness,

Top

Sean,

Spherical ( h- ) 278

Model 1 2 ( h 27A )3)

v 0 (h) = 0.026 + 0.015 (g

z

Coal

Thickness,

Lovrer

seamr

Spherical

Model

Utrtl = 0.036 + o.o2B (3 ( h ).2 262

1 ( h )3) 2 262

3.ll-*[glCoal Thickness,
- f

Top

Seam,

Spherical ( h )

Model 1

I ttrl = 0.013 + 0.021 ( 3

l
Coal Thickness, Lo\,rer Sean,

( h )3) 2m

Spherical

Model

S t n l = 0 " 0 2 8+ o . o o s ( 3 ( h ) 2 474
Sulphur, Spherical l'{odel 1 2

1 ( h )3) 2 474

how evern most bl ocks had 7 or 8. The resul ts of thi s conpari son are tabul ated i n Tabl e 5. seam is discontinuous The top over of the study area. $ras This apparent after the fi rst 35 hol es and was taken into aeeount for the estimation of the coal tonnagre. the B oth and kri ging I nD . S . rnethods were an improvement over the pcllygon method of estimating tonnage n results of each method The overall good, although were fairly the polygon method di d seri -ous1y overesti mate t he tonnage of block 9 and 10 and 2-8, seriously underestimate the tonnage in block and kriging The I.f).S. 2r6. gave reasonable estimates methods ttrroughout the mined area. DTSEUSSION OF RESTILTS

Itrtl = o.ooo + 2.64 (3 ( h ) 2 360

Ash, SPherical Modet ( h 519 )

h 360

) 3 )

f , n 1 = o . o o o + 1 G - 4 9( 3 2
Energy, Spherieal Model

1 2

h 519

) 3 )

J ) [tr,l = 15.60 + 3.412 (3 ( h 2 51.2

1 ( h )3) .2 5'1 2

and 5700 and northing 18OO and 2O5O, was chosen to determine the accuraey with which the estimation methods c ouLd s elec t mi n e a b l e c o a l . The area was subdivided into 20 blocksr 350 m by 25 m (figure the 5). tonnage of coal in each block was estimated by the three methods and then compared to the tonnage of each bLoek as determined from channel samples obt ained du ri n g th e m i n i n g c y c l e . ease, the polygon fn this estiwas mate the made by determininq Length of the rnid-trnint in each line bLock that clme under the inf luence of the drilI polygons. of The length this the by line rnultiplied was t hic k nes s assigned to th e dri l l polygon and then the block was assigned the weighted average thiekness. channel to ta l of A 172 samples were avai labl_e . The number per m ining b l -o c k v a ri e d f ro m 4 to 1 5,

the results of comparison llhe study appear reasonable with the excepti on of the esti mate of ash. All estimating a lower methods indicated ash eoal, with a higher sulphur content. may be due to the inelusion this as di l uti on of parti ng materi al and the removal some of the sulphur of rich coal at the top of the seam. and kri gi ng B oth the I.D .S . ar e an the polygon improvement over method, the polygon method did give a although of the close approximation actual tonnage v*ren all drilL and quality hol es w ere consi dered. polygon has the The method a reasonable advantage of simplicity; in ballpark estimate can be produced an afternoon. The method has numerous being the most serious disadvantages, polygon that the entire is the faet estimated by one eentralsample, the relationship between ignoring sampl es. inverse distance squaredThe take average method does moving consi derati o n; adj acent sampl es i nto weighting by the can adj usted be of the radius shrinking or exlnnding the ci rcl e used for esti mati on. The geol ogy tr end and sampl e vari abi l i ty may be taken into aecount by using an t he w i th el l i pti cal search area,

146

ACCURACY IN Tonne s Es tinated From

Pane I

TABLE SELECTION

5 OF MINEABLE

COAL

tonnes tonnes Po I ygon

(first holes) (a11 holes) I.D.S.

Channe I tonnes Sample

xriging

of di-rectj"on the in l-onEest ray eomputer The greatest continuity. sirnple and the prograaminq is fairly The disoutput is straiEhtforwarrl. the I " D* S * method is advantage of does not take the saiuPle it that j-nto dePosit the of variability
account j-n any rigorous wd1l r The

1 r

500

600 600 3900 3650 6800 66oo 8000

zoq
600
4550 4650

700 550

1 ' 2

4 10 0

aeSo
8400 7500 9500 8600 9000 8600 8300 8350 7 400 6BOO 68oj 6800 64.00 6200 3600

5300

1 t

7 10 0

77AA 7400 8800 84oO 9350 8550 9250 8350

8450 7 450

1 r

9600

666'o
1 , 5

10100

9600 9050 7400

1 ,

9900

E6'6'o
1 r 7

8050

_e4qo
8500

1 t

7550

e_?00 8900
87ojl 7300 4500. 4400

8100

tToo
7450 6800 3850 3400

1 , 9

7300

1 ,

1 0

4150

346'0

2,

2 t

650

460 250 2500 2500 3100 3 10 0 3800 3800

6900

550 550 4050 3950 4900 4850 6350 6300

800 700 5300 4BOO 6100 5750

2 ,

4500

2, 4

5400

2,

6 75 0

7259
6950 13 0 0 0 13000 6250 6300 6950 6 75 0 7050. 7150 6800 68oo

2 r

13400

129p0
12000

6t6'6'
9200 7400

smoothed over trerrc{s are Eeological i s E ained i nformati on and very l -i ttl e outPut " the of analYsis the from gi-ven the atre delrcsitiorr. non Areas of within sampl-es the of val-ue average are When there cirele. the search cLu st er the samP 1es, of cLusters the estirnate tends to dominate weight the search ci -rcl e. w i thi n method does give the The krigi-ng of, a estimate unbiased best linear (8) w hene t her e vari abl e reE i onatri zed trend to the dat a" i s no si gni fi cant can be used if there kriging Universal trend. is a signifieant qeostati sti es is of use The of the user more by the skill limited The selecthan by the method itself* semivariogram of the theoretical tion boundary the variable, used to krige search area si -ze and of the deposi t, allrnethod kriging of selection only acquired are that l"ls ski require software The practice. through coneiderof, are systems no\c avail-able even these but help, able Prograns degree of skill a much higher require polygon estimate. than does a simple grid good a be should there tdeally, variogram a that so sample data of of and, conPleted be can analysis and to good software aecess course, i-s facilities cornputing reasonabl-e essential. higher and effort extra The to do a Eeorequired degree of skil-I are a dePosit of studY statistieal generby the output more than offset The variograms ated by such a study" study particular this by generated of nature the discontinuous indieate also and top seam n the in the coal grid wi-th a regular that indicate apart m spaced about 1 50 holes drilt than would have been more appropriate the haphazard driLl- spaeing upon whieh was xnade. The decision the investment ete. 7 show"n of the tonnage, estimate

2 t

6800

6700 6 10 0

2, I L t
2 , 1 O

73 0 0
6900

1120q
9000

8050
7100

12500 7900 -1 62 20 00 00

8300 7 10 0 8050

5 40 0

6t5o'

TOTAL

126450

1 29660 113900

124900 12oT5o

L47
TABLE SELECTION 5 OF MINEABI,E COAL

ACCURACY IN Tonne s Es tirnated From PaneI Channe I tonnes SanpLe

tonnes Tfi'il;; po I ygon

(first holes) ( al"t holes )

I.D.s,

xriging

1 r

500

600 600
3900 3650

7qo 600
4550 4550

700 650
5300

1 t

4100

a5"5 0
8400 7600 9500 8600 9000 8500 8300. 8350 7 400 O 6-8O 5800 6800 6400 6200 3500 3400

1 , 3

7 10 0

5800 6600
8000

7700 7400 8800 8400 9350 8550 925,0 8350

1 '

9500

6'bso
1 , 5

10100

_9600 9050 7400

l r

9900

5' eoo
1 r 7

8050

9400 8600

T?so
8100 7100 7 450. 6800 3850 3400

84s0

1 ,

7550

e2q_0 8900
87 0j 7300 4500 4400

1 1 9

7300

1 r

1 o

4150

2 t

2 t

650

260250

550 550 4050 3950

80q 700 5300 4800 6100 5750 7 250 6950 13000 1 3 oo5' 6250 6300 69sO 6750 705.O 7150 6800 6800

2'

4500

2500

tsoo
1_1oo 3 10 0 ?800 3800
6900 6900

2t

5400

4 90 0 4850 6350 6300

12650 12000

2t

6 75 0

2 t

13 4 0 0

2t

6800

e2o9
7 400 11200 -T60o

6 70 0 6rOO

2,

7300

-s.q19
7100

2t

5 90 0

12600 7900

8_300 7 10 0 8050 6?50

2 t

l O

6400

1-2ooo 6200

TOTAL

I 26{50

1 29560 t 13900

1 27-9,00 117 5 0 0

124900 1 2 0 15 0

This is a repetition

of Table 5.

148

lrl

lrj C) o
(\I @

IJ

9
@

o o
tf)

(o

trl o o <r (o

trJ

lrj

o o ro

o (o (o

t! o t(o

tll

o o
@

2200 N

2 t o oN

2000 N

t900 N

1 8 0 0N

t700 N

Figure

5.

figure This shows tlr" area of the deposit used to determine the aecuracy with which the estimation methods might coal . seLect mineable The shaded area indicates the presenee of the top seam. techwhen computer based estimation and kriging niques sueh as the r.D.S. are used. esti mates EONCLUSIONS and of coal quantity The estimate quality the Aconi at Novaco Point the using has been cornpleted deposit the moving pol ygon I.D .S . method, method average method and the kriging geostati sti cs. E ach method has of and disadvantages. advantages certain gave the rnethod The geostati stical tonnage of the overall best estinate and the kr igB oth I.D .S . and rf![]r estimate ing methods gave a reasonable bl ocks. sel eeted i n coal of mi neabl e .method each that been shown has It geologrical data grood a on relies include data base should base. fhis and should r ds data obtainable all be on a reg ular as possi bl e, near sampl i ng gri d.

in Table are the ikeLy most JZ values. A mining company might demand a higher confidence linit for these v alues pr ior to i n v e s ti n g of millions dollars in the _ venture. For this particular study, the company could hav e been 9 7 .5 t a s s u re d o f a t l east th e fi rs t a fte r 593 000 t o n n e s 35 holes had b e e n d ri l l e d . of a good sample The importance Aecurdata base must be emphasized. ate analyses and measurements must be obtained whenever possible. Ttris is partieularly low low grade, true of tonnage deposits where the difference of the of 1 0 or 20 cm in thickness difference mean the deposit might and loss. bet ween pr o fi t reserve to do a proper In order be should estimate, the deposit grid. Th drill sampled on a regular must be geoholes in the eoal horizon e ri ti eal phy s ic ally logged and all i nterGe o l o g i c a l analy s es c o m p l e te d . pretation into must be incorporated all t onnage e s ti m a te s , i n p a rti e ul ar

I49

ACKNOWLEDG14ENTS The authors wish to thank the Department of hergy, Mines and Resources for funding project this under Research Agreement Number 222, and Novaco permission for Ltd. to publis h t he re s u l -ts o f th i s s tu d y.

REFERENCES 1 ASTON, T.R.C., D. llacNErl, and C. WHITE, 1983r The Application of to the S ydney Geostati sti cs C oal fi el d: C A N ME TD i scussi on P a per , EMR, Ottawa B E LL 7 W .A . 7 1 983 , B ras d I Or S h eet , Cape Breton and Victoria Counties, Nova Scotia: G.S.C. Map 359A and J.R . H A C A -I' E B A R D , . F.A DONALDSON, 1 969, Carboniferous Coal with Flood Deposition Associated in Plain and Limnic Environments Nova Scotia! G.S.A. Special Paper 114 t E rrvi ronments of C oal D eposi ti on r pp 143-1 91 A GTE R B E R G,F.P . and C .F. C H U N G, of 1973, Geomathemati eal P redi cti on Sulphur in Coal r New Lingan Mine A rea, S ydney C oal f i el d: C It{ B ul -l eti n , Oet. 1973 for Tresting and American Society Materi al s, 1 978, B ook of A S TM part 26, P hi l adel phi a S tandards, BIELENSTEINT H'V'; L'P' CHRISMAS, B .A . TA TOU R and T.E . TIB B E TTS , '|.979, Coal Resources and Reserves of Canada: CANMET, E!lR, ottawa D.T. AND A. WErSS' 1968' OTBRTAN2 Aspects of Cornputer Practical Methods in Ore Reserve Analysis: cIM Specialr Vol 9t pp 109-113 D A V ID , M. 1977, Geostati sti cal E l sevi er, R eserve E sti mati on: Ams terd am Ore

SABOURTN, R.L. r 1982, CANMET Reserve System for ltlineral Research CANI,IETllining Erraluation: EMR, Ottawa Laboratories,