In Section 11.2 we discuss mixed strategy games those without a clear best strategy (which we call a saddle point).

. Since there is no clear strategy, each player will choose a mixed strategy which means they will choose one option some percentage of the time, and the other option the rest of the time. Lets look at an example of a football game to explain. Its a very simplified and unrealistic example as far as football is concerned, but it will work for a basic example. Team A is on offense and can either choose a run play (strategy 1) or a pass play (strategy 2). Team B is on defense and can either choose a run defense (strategy 1) or a pass defense (strategy 2). The payoff matrix M is listed below.

Team B (Defense) Run Pass Def (1) Def (2) M= Team A Run (1) (Offense) Pass (2) -6 12 4 0

So there are 4 possibilities: 1. 2. 3. 4. Team A runs and team B chooses a run defense which results in a 6 yard loss for team A. Team A runs and team B chooses a pass defense which results in a 4 yard gain for team A. Team A passes and team B choose a run defense which results in a 12 yard gain for team A. Team A passes and team B chooses a pass defense which results in 0 yards gained.

There is no clear strategy for either team and neither knows which type the other will choose. Therefore, the best strategy for Team A is to use a mixed strategy running some of the time and passing some of the time. Our goal will be to find out what percentage of the time they should run and what percentage of time they should pass. Well also find out what percentage team B should pick their plays. Since team A doesnt know what team B will choose, we will first find the expected number of yards (expected value) that team A will get if team B chooses a run defense. Well let p1 represent the percentage of the time they will choose to run (strategy 1) and 1- p1 represent the percentage of the time they will choose to pass (strategy 2). Remember from earlier in the semester that expected value is found by multiplying the value (in this case yards) times the probability for each event and then adding the results. p2 run -6 p1 pass 12 1 - p1 (

xi pi

Expected number of yards assuming team B chooses run defense )

Our expected value therefore is:

Well also find the expected number of yards (expected value) that team A will get if team B chooses a pass defense. run 4 p1 ) pass 0 1 - p1

xi pi (

Expected number of yards assuming team B chooses pass defense

So:

Because team A doesnt know what type of play team B will choose, the best option is where the expected number of yards (expected value) is the same regardless of what B chooses. So well set those two expected values equal to each other.

Team A should therefore choose strategy 1 (run) Well write this as a matrix [ ]

of the time and choose strategy 2 (pass) (

of the time.

Well then repeat the process finding the expected values for team B. These problems seem a bit long at first, but notice that youre just finding 4 expected values in much the same way, so its only long because of the repetition. Well first find the expected number of yards (expected value) for team B if team A chooses to run (strategy 1): run -6 p2 pass 4 1 - p2 (

xi pi

Expected number of yards assuming team A chooses to run )

And then the expected number of yards (expected value) for team B if team A chooses to pass (strategy 2): run 12 p2 pass 0 1 - p2

xi pi

Expected number of yards assuming team A chooses to pass ( )

As before, well set these equal to find the best strategy for team B regardless of what team A chooses.

Team B should therefore choose strategy 1 (run defense)

of the time and choose strategy 2 (pass defense)

of the time. Well write this as a matrix [ ]

To find the value of the game, we multiply both teams probabilities times the payoff matrix like so:

In other words, using this strategy, team A should expect to average 2.18 yards per play if both teams use these strategies. This is called the value of the game.