Americans Changing Views on Crime and Punishment

1. Mark D. Ramirez*
+ Author Affiliations 1. MARK D. RAMIREZ is an assistant professor in the School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. The author thanks James E. Monogan and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments and assistance. Thanks also go to Sarah Dutton at CBS, Sheldon Gawiser at NBC, Scott Keeter at the Pew Research Center, and Maura Strausberg at Gallup for assistance with documentation.

Abstract Despite a decline in crime rates, the size of Americas criminal justice system has continued to expand in both expenditures and the number of citizens under correctional supervision. Polls examined here show that the public viewed national crime as declining since the 1990s, while viewing local crime rates as stable. Moreover, the polls show that public support for get tough crime policies, once seen as unwavering, has declined substantially. The decline in support occurred across a range of policies, from judicial sentencing to the death penalty to increasing expenditures for law enforcement agencies. Finally, polls show fluctuations in public views regarding which political party was better suited to deal with crime. Overall, these data illustrate that leaders now have the opportunity to move policy in a less punitive direction and that no single party has ownership over the issue. After 50 years of punitive approaches to dealing with crime, the correctional population (i.e., individuals experiencing incarceration, parole, probation) within the United States is higher than in any other country. An estimated seven million Americans (one in every 34 adults) are under some form of correctional supervision (Glaze and Parks 2012). State and federal governments continue to devote substantial resources to fighting crime despite declines in revenue. This has led some scholars to conclude that the expansion of the criminal justice system is as significant as other postwar developments, such as the welfare state, the civil rights movement, and the Cold War (Edsall and Edsall 1992; Tonry 1995;Gottschalk 2006). Past issues of Public Opinion Quarterly have examined trends in public support for capital punishment (Erskine 1970), criminal sentencing (Erskine 1974; Warr 1995), and criminal justice institutions (Shaw et al. 1998). These articles showed an increase in public support for various punitive policies between the 1970s and mid-1990san increase concurrent with actual and perceived changes in crime (Beckett 1997). Yet crime has declined significantly since the mid1990s. According to the FBIs Uniform Crime Report, violent crime declined from 1,857,670 reported instances in 1994 to 1,203,564 reported instances in 2011 (a decrease of approximately 35 percent). Similarly, property crimes declined from 12,131,873 reported instances in 1994 to 9,063,173 reported instances in 2011 (a decrease of approximately 25 percent). Subsequently, law and order campaigns, prominent between 1964 and 1994, have subsided, and new issues such as global warming and immigration have moved to the forefront (Marion, Smith, and Oliver 2009).

An examination of polls between 1994 and 2013 shows changing public perceptions of national crime consistent with changes in the crime rate. The polls also show a decline in support for a variety of punitive policies (e.g., judicial sentencing, capital punishment, spending on law enforcement). However, support for nonpunitive policies has remained stable, suggesting that the public is not ready to do away with punitive solutions to crime. The polls also show fluctuations in what party the public felt is best suited to deal with crime, but stability in support for law enforcement authorities. Moreover, terrorism appears to have become entangled with criminal justice opinions and policy (Forst 2009). Public officials have linked the war on terror to organized crime, drug trafficking, and street violence (Forst, Green, and Lynch 2011). The violent nature of both crime and terrorism can instill fear in the public, leading to a greater need for security. Subsequently, the polls show increases in support for punitive policies coinciding with terrorist activities, even though these are distinct phenomena. Perceptions of Crime The public perceived a decline in national crime after the mid-1990s, but there is mixed evidence regarding the longevity of this change. Table 1shows that 71 percent of respondents believed there was more crime in 1996 than in the previous year. This figure declined to 41 percent by 2001. From 2001 to 2002, there was a 21-percentage-point increase in the perception that there was more crime across the nation, possibly spillover from the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. An increased perception of national crime continued from 2004 to 2011. Table 2, however, shows that 73 percent of respondents in 1994 perceived that national crime had gotten worse, but by 2012 this percentage dropped by 28 percentage points. Respondents seem more willing to report that crime had stayed the same in this latter poll. Finally, table 3 shows a 15-percentage-point decline in how much respondents worry about crime between 2001 and 2013. Public fear of crime reached its nadir in 2012, when only 42 percent of the respondents said they worry a great deal about crime and violence. Table 1. Perception of Crime in United States. GALLUP: Is there more crime in the U.S. (United States) than there was a year ago, or less? Table 2. Perception of National Crime. CBS/NEW YORK TIMES: In the last year, do you think crime in the country has increased, decreased, or stayed about the same? Table 3. Worry about Crime and Violence in the Nation. GALLUP: Im going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. How much do you personally worry about crime and violence?

Table 4 also shows a small change in respondents perceived fear to walk alone at night. The 1996 poll shows that 39 percent of respondents feared walking alone at night. This figure declined by 9 percentage points by 2001, with small year-to-year changes thereafter. According to table 5, the percentage of respondents who viewed an increase in neighborhood crime dropped between 1996 and 2001, from 46 percent to 26 percent. However, this percentage went back up to 48 percent by 2011. Table 4. Fear of Crime in Neighborhood. GALLUP: Is there any area near where you livethat is, within a milewhere you would be afraid to walk alone at night? Table 5. Perception of Crime in Neighborhood. GALLUP: Is there more crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less? Finally, table 6 shows stability in public concern about drug use. The percentage of respondents who worried a great deal about drug use in 2001 was 58 percent. This figure dropped to 49 percent by 2002, and to 42 percent by 2012. Overall, perceptions of crime declined during the late 1990s, increased slightly after 2001, and remained somewhat stable for the remainder of the decade. Table 6. Concern for Drug Use. GALLUP: How much do you worry about drug use? Judicial Sentencing It is widely believed that public support for tougher judicial sentencing is a permanent fixture of American politics (e.g., Alajdem 2008). In the 1990s, a majority of Americans supported get tough sentencing policies such as mandatory minimums and three strike laws (Tyler and Boekmann 1977). Yet, as table 7 shows, the publics support for tougher sentencing declined from 85 percent in 1994 to 62 percent by 2012. A seven-percentage-point drop occurred between 1994 and 1996, while a 12-percentage-point drop occurred between 1996 and 2002. Disaggregating the General Social Survey (GSS) data between 1996 and 2000 (the period of greatest change) by subgroup shows that support declined among men (20 percentage points), women (16 percentage points), blacks (19 percentage points), whites (17 percentage points), Republicans (12 percentage points), Democrats (20 percentage points), respondents between 18 and 29 years of age (16 percentage points), and respondents over the age of 65 (20 percentage points).1 Table 7. Judicial Sentencing. GSS: In general, do you think that the courts in this area deal too harshly or not harshly enough with criminals? The decline in support for tougher sentencing could be a reaction to the growing number of conservative judges on both federal and state courts or to an increase in federally mandated sentences. It is possible that as the courts became more punitive, the public began to temper its demand for tougher sentencing.

Capital Punishment Support for capital punishment often hinges on the question format. The seemingly solid support for capital punishment shown in polls that constrain respondents to either favor or oppose the policy can significantly erode when respondents are provided with sentencing alternatives such as life without parole. The Gallup question that constrains respondents to either favor or oppose the death penalty for murder shows a substantial decline in public support since its peak in 1994 (Warr 1995). Responses to the Gallup question, shown in table 8, reveal that the percentage of Americans favoring the death penalty declined from 80 percent in 1994 to 65 percent by May 2001. Support for the death penalty increased to 68 percent by October 2001, shortly after the attacks on 9/11. Support, however, declined 10 percentage points between 2004 and 2011, suggesting that any influence of the terrorist attacks on death penalty support was short lived. Table 8. Death Penalty Support. GALLUP: Are you in favor of the death penalty for a person convicted of murder? The GSS also uses the favor-or-oppose format and shows a similar decline in support for the death penalty. As shown in table 9, 74 percent of GSS respondents favored the death penalty in 1994, which declined to 63 percent by 2000. Support increased to 66 percent by March 2002, six months after the terrorist attacks on 9/11, and stabilized at about 65 percent between 2004 and 2012. Disaggregating the change in public support between 1994 and 2002 by subgroup shows that the largest decline in support occurred among women (13 percentage points), blacks (12 percentage points), and respondents above 65 years of age (13 percentage points). The smallest decline in support occurred among Republicans (five percentage points) and men (seven percentage points). Table 9. Death Penalty Opposition. GSS: Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? Table 10 shows a decline in the percentage of Americans saying the death penalty is not implemented enough. In 1994, 64 percent of Americans believed the death penalty should be implemented more. This declined to 38 percent prior to 9/11. After 9/11, 47 percent of Americans believed the death penalty should be used more often. This declined to 40 percent by 2011. The decline in support for the death penalty follows a rise in litigation challenging the use of lethal injection as a means of execution (Steiker 2013). It also occurs alongside a decline in support among policymakers as legislative repeals of the death penalty have occurred in New Jersey, New Mexico, Illinois, Connecticut, and Maryland, while state courts in New York, Nebraska, and Kansas have ruled its use unconstitutional. Table 10. Implementation of the Death Penalty. GALLUP: In your opinion, is the death penalty imposedtoo often, about the right amount, or not often enough?

Sentencing Choices Declining support for the death penalty is also visible when the public is given a choice between sentencing criminals convicted of homicide to death or life imprisonment with no chance of parole. Table 11 shows that from 1985 to 1999, a majority of Americans preferred the death penalty. There is a 9-percentage-point increase in support for the death penalty by October 1993, six months after the siege in Waco, Texas, and the same month Congress introduced the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act (VCCLEA). Support for the death penalty increased 11 percentage points between 1994 and 1997, which coincides with the sentencing of the Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. Support for life imprisonment was stable from 1985 to 1999 but nearly reached parity with support for the death penalty at 42 percent by 2000. Table 11. Death Penalty or Prison with No Parole. GALLUP: What do you think should be the penalty for murderdeath or life imprisonment with absolutely no possibility for parole? Table 12 shows responses to the same question with the addition of a question preface.2 Support for the death penalty increased to 54 percent by 2001 and remained stable for the next three years. Support for life imprisonment also remained stable around 43 percent during this period. In the 2011 poll, Americans were split between the death penalty (48 percent) and life imprisonment (50 percent). If we assume the changes in the question preface had little effect on respondents opinions, then support for life imprisonment relative to the death penalty increased between 1985 and 2011. Table 12. Death Penalty or Prison with No Parole. GALLUP: If you could choose between the following two approaches, which do you think is the better penalty for murderthe death penalty, or life imprisonment with absolutely no possibility of parole? Alternatives to Punishment A series of Gallup polls, shown in table 13, reveal that a majority of Americans from 1989 to 2004 favored attacking the social problems that lead to crime rather than expanding the scope of law enforcement. In 1989, 61 percent favored attacking social problems, a figure that increased to 67 percent by 1992. This figure declined to 57 percent in 2004. Support for increasing prisons, police, and judges decreased from 32 percent in 1994 to 27 percent by 2000consistent with the overall decline in punitiveness during this period. This figure increased to 39 percent by 2004. Table 13. Support for Alternatives to Punishment. GALLUP: To lower the crime rate in the U.S., some people think additional money and effort should go to attacking the social and economic problems that lead to crime through better education and job training. Others feel more money and effort should go to deterring crime by improving law enforcement with more prisons, police, and judges. Which comes closer to your view?

Table 14 shows that drug rehabilitation programs were also popular among a large number of Americans. From 1994 to 2010, a majority supported drug rehabilitation programs, which is often an alternative to prisons for drug offenders. The best description of public support for such programs over time is stability. Fifty-two percent of respondents said the country is spending too little on drug rehabilitation in 1994. This figure remained essentially stable until 2008, when it dropped to 46 percent. Table 15 shows similar support for drug addiction programs. Support for spending more to reduce drug addiction started at 60 percent in 1994 and slowly dropped to 55 percent by 2012. The percentage of respondents who believed we are spending too much on drug addiction programs remained stable from 1994 to 2012. Table 14. Support for Drug Rehabilitation. GSS: Are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on drug rehabilitation? Table 15. Support for Drug Addiction. GSS: Are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on drug addiction? Spending to Fight Crime The decreasing punitiveness is also shown in public preferences toward spending to fight crime. Table 16 shows that 75 percent of respondents believed the nation was spending too little money on halting the rising crime rate in 1994. By 2002, this figure had declined 18 percentage points. Disaggregating this change shows that support for spending declined among men (21 percentage points), women (18 percentage points), blacks (14 percentage points), whites (21 percentage points), Republicans (20 percentage points), Democrats (18 percentage points), respondents between 18 and 29 years of age (36 percentage points), and respondents over the age of 65 (21 percentage points). Table 16. Spending to Halt Crime. GSS: We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. Im going to name some of these problems, and for each one Id like you to tell me whether you think were spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount.Halting the rising crime rate? Public support for greater spending for law enforcement also declined between 1994 and 2012. Table 17 shows that 63 percent of respondents believed spending for law enforcement was too little in 1994. That figure dropped 16 percentage points by 2002 and remained around 53 percent from 2004 to 2008. It declined to 49 percent by 2012. Table 17. Spending on Law Enforcement. GSS: We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. Im going to name some of these problems, and for each one Id like you to tell me whether you think were spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount. Are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on . . . law enforcement?

Satisfaction with Crime Policies and Authorities Although conventional wisdom places issue ownership of crime with the Republican Party (Beckett 1997), the polls show no clear party having an advantage on the issue since 1994. Table 18 shows that the majority of respondents (52 percent) viewed both parties as equal in dealing with crime in 1994 (per the NBC/WSJ poll), but this percentage declined to 21 percent in 1996 before it increased to 38 percent in 1998. The Pew surveys show a smaller number of respondents viewing both parties as equal on crime relative to the NBC/WSJ polls. In March 1998, 11 percent of respondents viewed both parties as equal, which declined to 9 percent by October 2006. Since 1994, roughly equal percentages of the public favored one party over the other. In some polls more respondents favored the Democratic Party (i.e., 1998, 2002), while in other polls more respondents favored the Republican Party (i.e., 1994, 1995, 1997, 2006). Which Party Is Better Suited to Deal with Crime?. When it comes to dealing with crime, which party do you think would do a better jobthe Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both about the same, or neither? Table 19 shows public satisfaction with national crime policies from 2001 to 2013. A small but stable percentage of respondents were very satisfied with national policies to reduce crime. This percentage never rose above 11 percent during this period. Almost twice as many respondents were very dissatisfied with crime policies, although this number decreased seven percentage points from 2001 to 2002. Dissatisfaction peaked by 2013, with 24 percent of the public saying they were very dissatisfied. Table 19. Satisfaction with National Criminal Justice Policy. GALLUP: Wed like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the following areas. For each one, please say whether you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. If you dont have enough information about a particular subject to rate it, just say so. How about the nations policies to reduce or control crime? Finally, table 20 shows satisfaction with law enforcement authorities. The poll specifically asks respondents how much confidence they have in their local police. In 1998, 26 percent of respondents had a great deal of confidence in their local police. This figure dropped to 18 percent by 2000 before it climbed back to 34 percent by 2001 following the terrorist attacks on 9/11 (see also Shaw and Brannan [2009]). Confidence in the police remained largely stable from 2002 to 2012, suggesting that changing views toward the police are not tightly connected to the publics changing attitudes toward punishment of criminals. View this table: Table 20. Confidence in the Police. GALLUP: I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each onea great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?...The police?

Conclusion A majority of Americans support punitive criminal justice policies. However, Americans today are less supportive of punitive policies than they were in the midst of the law and order era between 1970 and 1994. This decline in support for punitive policies is consistent across specific punitive policies (e.g., death penalty, sentencing, spending) and across various subgroups (see also Ramirez [2013]). This is a substantial change from the past, when punitive policies appeared to be the dominant approach to crime. These data also show a decreased perception of national crime since the mid-1990s. Perceptions of crime, however, do not follow the same pattern as support for specific punitive policies. Thus, perceptions of crime cannot be uniquely responsible for the shifts in punitiveness. Instead, support for punitive policies has increased after instances of terrorism rather than periods of high crime. Appendices Abbreviations CBS: Columbia Broadcasting Network Gallup: Gallup Organization GSS: National Opinion Research Center, General Social Survey GWU-Battleground George Washington University Battleground Poll HART: Hart and Teeter Research Companies NBC: National Broadcasting Company NYT: New York Times PEW: Pew Research Center Roper: Roper Organization WSJ: Wall Street Journal The survey results reported here were obtained from searches of the iPOLL Databank and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Unless otherwise noted in the table notes, all Gallup surveys between 1994 and 2007 involved national adult samples and were conducted via telephone with households selected by random-digit-dialing. All Gallup surveys from 2008 onward involved national adult samples and were conducted via landline and cell phone selected by random-digit-dialing.

Unless otherwise noted in the table notes, all General Social Surveys involved national adult samples and were conducted by face-to-face interviews. Response rates are as follows (when available): CBS and CBS/NYT: 8/2001, 15.6%; 4/2005, 17.11%; 7/2005, 13.95% (AAPOR RR1; response rates for surveys prior to 2001 were unavailable) GSS: 1994, 77.8%; 1996, 76.1%; 1998, 75.6%; 2000, 70.0%; 2002, 70.1%; 2004, 70.4%; 2006, 71.2%; 2008, 70.4%; 2010, 70.3%; 2012, 71.4% (AAPOR RR3) PEW: 9/2006, 27%; 10/2006, 26% (AAPOR RR5; response rates were unavailable for surveys prior to 2006) Response rates were requested from but not provided by Peter Hart Research (including Hart and Teeter Research Companies), Gallup Organization, and the National Broadcasting Company/Wall Street Journal.

Disaggregation of GSS Data This appendix contains tables that disaggregate the General Social Survey (GSS) data on public support toward judicial sentencing, the death penalty, and spending on crime. Unfortunately, the data file necessary to perform a subgroup analysis is not available from the Roper Center, iPoll, or the survey organization for many of the survey marginals listed in the manuscript. The GSS, however, does provide a data file that allowed the disaggregation of poll questions by various subgroups. This analysis examined gender, race, age, and partisan affiliation, since past research highlights important differences in punitive attitudes across these constituencies. The subgroup survey marginals are shown in table A1 for spending to halt crime, table A2 for support for the death penalty, and table A3 for support for tougher judicial sentencing. Consistent with past research on the over-time movement in policy opinions of various subgroups (i.e., Page and Shapiro 1992), these data show that the decline in support for punitive policies was consistent across men, women, blacks, whites, the young, the old, Republicans, and Democrats. Thus, the aggregate marginals in the text are largely consistent with the subgroup analysis. Appendix table notes: REP indicates a strong or moderate affiliation with the Republican Party. DEM indicates a strong or moderate affiliation with the Democratic Party. Independents and independents that lean toward a party were excluded from these tables. 1829 indicates respondents between the ages of 18 and 29; 65+ indicates respondents 65 years of age or greater. These data are derived from the GSS Cumulative Data file (citation in text). Table A1. Spending to Halt Crime across Groups. GSS: We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. Im going to name some of these problems, and for each one Id like you to tell me whether you think were spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount.Halting the rising crime rate?

Death Penalty Support across Groups. GSS: Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? Table A3. Judicial Sentencing across Groups. GSS: In general, do you think that the courts in this area deal too harshly or not harshly enough with criminals? Footnotes

1.

These data were disaggregated by the author using the General Social Survey Cumulative File: Smith et al., General Social Survey, 19722012 [machine-readable data file]; Chicago: National Opinion Research Center [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut [distributor], 2013. Partisans are respondents with either a strong or moderate affiliation with a particular political party. Independents or party leaners are excluded from the percentages reported here. However, support for punitive policies also declined among these groups. 2. The preface to the question in Table 11 asks, *W+hat do you think should be the penalty for murder while the question in Table 12 asks, *I+f you could choose between the following two approaches, which do you think is the better penalty for murder. A cross-comparison of the data in 2000 shows similar responses across the variation in question wording. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

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