JF GG1021 Essay

Name: Student No.:

Toms Campbell 09906525

The recent 'leakin ' o! a climate scientist's e"mails has caused a media !urore and the !ear amon st part o! the scienti!ic communit# that the !indin s o! the $%CC &ill no lon er be taken seriousl#. 'rite an essa# outlinin the problems that this leak has caused and the underl#in scienti!ic ar uments.

(The t&o ))s ha*e been a!ter the C+, station data !or #ears. $! the# e*er hear there is a -reedom o! $n!ormation .ct no& in the ,/0 $ think $'ll delete the !ile rather than send to an#one.12

3n the second o! -ebruar# 20050 so be an an email !rom a&ard &innin climatolo ist %hil 4ones to a collea ue0 5ust one o! o*er 60000 emails hacked !rom the database o! the Climate +esearch ,nit o! the ,ni*ersit# o! 7ast .n lia and leaked online on the 29th No*ember 2009. The implication is clear" that a leadin climate e8pert &as intentionall# &ithholdin data that contradicted the case !or man"made climate chan e and breakin the la& in the process. This is not an isolated case9 across the 60000 leaked emails are numerous !urther e8amples o! data bein selecti*el# held back0 discussions on ho& to limit the media e8posure o! climate sceptics" includin encoura in collea ues to stop submittin articles to the academic 5ournal Climate Change until it chan ed its editorial stance2" and0 the sceptics &ould claim0 &a#s in &hich to interpret and handle data so to support their predetermined conclusion that temperature rises are linked to carbon dio8ide emissions. $n the &eeks be!ore the 2009 ,N Climate Chan e Con!erence in Copenha en0 described as (too important to !ail1 b# Chinese climate chan e ambassador :u ;in tai60 the timin o! the leak &as de*astatin . <o&e*er0 &hilst the emails are an undoubted blo& to the ad*ocates o! man"made climate chan e0 do the# reall# alter the science or merel# the public=s perception0 and is there a di!!erence> ?Climate ate= is not the !irst time the sceptics ha*e le*elled alle ations o! !oul pla# and deliberate omission at their counterparts. %erhaps the reatest s#mbol in the climate chan e debate is that o! the ?hocke# stick=0 the the third report o! the $%CC. The e8ponential nature o! temperature rise in the 20th Centur# illustrated b# the hocke# stick raph is seen b# man# as de!initi*e e*idence that climate chan e is man" raph mappin lobal temperatures o*er the past millennium and !irst published in Climate Change 20010

made0 e*en pla#in a ma5or part in .l @ore=s case !or anthropo enic climate chan e in his 2006 !ilm An Inconvenient Truth. %atrick 4. )ichaels takes issue &ith the raph ho&e*er0 assertin that it

(lar el# lacks both the Aittle $ce . e and the )edie*al 'arm %eriod.1 B This is not the onl# instance o! erroneousness )ichaels claims to !ind in Climate Change 2001 and in re!utin its claim that (Ce#ond 22000 the thermohaline circulation could completel#0 and possibl# irre*ersibl#0 shut do&n1 5 he a rees &ith Carl 'unsch " &ho is reco nised as a &orld authorit# on ocean currents" and his recent comments on that possibilit#: (The onl# &a# to produce an ocean circulation &ithout a @ul! Stream is either to turn o!! the &ind s#stem0 or to stop the earth=s rotation0 or both.1B The sceptics themsel*es are the sub5ect o! strident criticism &ith it o!ten bein claimed that the# are !unded b# the !ossil !uel ener # companies to manu!acture the impression that there is little consensus that the present climate chan e is in lar e measure enerated b# human acti*it#. $n a recent post on his blo 0 @eor e )onbiot o! The Guardian e8amined !our case studies o! ho& (the denial industr# &orks16 &hich included the $n!ormation Council !or the 7n*ironment D$ceE0 set up in 2992 b# the 'estern -uels .ssociation0 National Coal .ssociation and 7dison 7lectric $nstitute and &ith the stated oal o! repositionin ( lobal &armin as theor# Dnot !actE1 and the re*elation that the a!orementioned Fr %atrick )ichaels" one o! the !e& deniers &ho is also a practisin climatolo ist" is in receipt o! hu e !inancial support !rom ener # companies0 recei*in G2000000 !rom the $ntermountain +ural 7lectric .ssociation in -ebruar# 2006 aloneH. So the narrati*e o! the dispute is &ell established0 &ith !e& den#in that the earth is &armin 0 but &ith the ?sceptics= ar uin that claims the &armin is man" made are !raudulent and the ?belie*ers=0 !or their part0 accusin the sceptics o! actin at the behest o! those &ith a *ested interest in the status Iuo or business as usual model o! economic ro&th.

The real test0 thou h0 should not be the &ord o! one side a ainst the other0 but &hat the science itsel! sa#s. The most dramatic illustration o! the earth=s &armin is probabl# lacial

retreat since 2J50. ,nlike the increasin temperature &hich is radual and in*isible0 lacial retreat is immediatel# e*ident upon e8amination o! photo raphsJ. . ain this is a trend that has accelerated in the latter hal! o! the 20 th centur#9 &ith all 60 re!erence laciers o! the 'orld @lacier )onitorin Ser*ice in retreat and a loss in ice *olume in the Southern .lps o! o*er 5 km6 o*er the past 60 #ears20. The disinte ration o! the Aarsen C ice shel! in 200222 is probabl# the best kno&n e8ample o! lacial retreat and ma# !oreshado& thin s to come &ith scientists not rulin out the collapse o! Aarsen C in the !oreseeable !uture22. $n the lon er term0 lacial retreat could see sea le*els rise b# about hal! a metre this centur#26 resultin in the submersion o! lar e s&athes o! land0 particularl# in south east .sia0 causin the displacement o! up to a billion coastal d&ellers b# 20502B and !orcin them to mi rate inland as &ell as causin acute &ater shorta es in areas dependent on lacier ice melt each #ear. The lobal"a*era e temperature records o! the last 250 #ears sho& an

indisputable increase in the earth=s temperature. +elati*e to 2962"29900 temperatures in 2J50 &ere about 0.B oC lo&er than the# are toda# &hereas the# &ere about 0.5oC hi her b# 20000 a s&in o! almost an entire de ree" and the increase is acceleratin
25

. The instrumental temperature record=s

robustness is rarel# challen ed0 e*en b# the sceptics0 &ith three independent records all displa#in &armin since pre"industrial times and particularl# rapid increase since 29H026. .lso0 it has been &ell noted that the be innin o! this up&ard trend correlates &ith the commencement o! the industrial re*olution0 be!ore &hich le*els o! carbon dio8ide in the atmosphere are estimated to ha*e been around 2J0 parts per million

DppmE compared &ith 6JH ppm in 20092H0 an increase o! close to B0K in under 200 #ears. 3! course0 i! all the sceptics had to re!ute &as a correlation bet&een atmospheric carbon le*els and temperature o*er the past centur# and a hal! their 5ob &ould be simple" it is a mere blink o! an e#e in eolo ical terms. -or lon er term records climatolo ists ha*e to rel# on pro8# data0 a prominent source o! &hich is ice cores. $ce cores can pro*ide a record oin back as !ar as J000000 #ears !or both temperature and atmospheric conditions. 'hen temperature &as &arm0 hi h concentrations o! deuterium can be !ound in ice samples &hereas samples !rom cold periods are described as (isotopicall# depleted12J0 29. This e!!ect is due to deuterium=s &ei ht relati*e to common h#dro en makin it slo& to e*aporate. <o&e*er0 temperature at a i*en time is irrele*ant to the climate chan e debate unless there is in!ormation on the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions and these too can be determined !rom the ice samples. Cubbles trapped in the ice allo& scientists to determine the composition o! the atmosphere !or an# i*en sample and0 b# e8tension0 the le*els o! carbon dio8ide Scientists ha*e been able to obser*e a remarkable correlation bet&een the amount o! carbon dio8ide in the atmosphere and the earth=s sur!ace temperature20. %erhaps most troublin ho&e*er is the rate at &hich carbon dio8ide le*els are no& risin 9 the !astest rise #et obser*ed in the records enerated b# e8amination o! the ice cores is 60 ppm o*er 20000 #ears" the same amount b# &hich carbon dio8ide has increased in the past 2H #ears alone22. Toda# atmospheric carbon dio8ide le*els are hi her than ha*e e*er been obser*ed in the ice cores Dat their hi hest in 2.2 million #ears accordin to plankton

records22E and there is no indication o! a &illin ness to reduce our emissions o! this as in the near !uture. $t is not 5ust ice cores0 thou h0 that sho& a rise in temperature &ith a rise in carbon dio8ide: !oramini!era !ossils and tree rin s are 5ust a !e& o! the multitude o! pro8# data climatolo ists can look to in order to create an idea o! our earth in the past26 and the# all demonstrate a similar relationship bet&een carbon dio8ide and temperature. The sceptics ha*e claimed that in the past carbon dio8ide le*els ha*e la ed temperature rises0 so lo icall# carbon dio8ide cannot be responsible !or the present temperature rise2B Dor at least is not a si ni!icant causeE and that there!ore some other !actor must be primaril# responsible. That carbon dio8ide emissions la ed behind temperature increases in the past is not in itsel! incorrect" accordin to the ice core records there is an a*era e la period o! about J00 #ears - ho&e*er the in!erence that this dispro*es that carbon dio8ide le*els are dri*in the present lobal &armin is incorrect. The reason !or the la is that the &armin periods obser*ed in the ice cores take about 50000 #ears to complete0 as the 7arth comes out o! one o! its man# ice" a es. The initial &armin is most likel# tri ered as part o! the &idel# accepted )ilanko*itch C#cles0 an orbital shi!t in the earth causin it to recei*e more o! the Sun=s heat and tri erin a tha&. .s the 7arth heats up0 the solubilit# o! carbon dio8ide in &ater !alls &hich results in hi her le*els bein present in the atmosphere. The entire out assin process takes bet&een 600 and 20000 #ears0 e8plainin the la 0 a!ter &hich point the le*els o! carbon in the air ampli!# the &armin and continue to &arm the planet !or about B0000 #ears. This la period0 thou h0 has no e!!ect on or rele*ance to current &armin . The e8amples in the ice cores are o! an e8chan e o! carbon bet&een &ater and the atmosphere0 but throu h the burnin o! !ossil !uels humans ha*e added a third !actor: carbon that &as locked &ithin the 7arth=s crust and ne*er pre*iousl# part o! the c#cle.

Not onl# does the !act that pre*ious &armin s ha*e been temperature led not a!!ect the ar ument that contemporar# &armin is anthropo enic but actuall# su e8acerbate &armin still !urther250 26. The sceptics utilise plent# o! other ar uments in their bid to discredit lobal &armin . Some claim that the Sun has been more acti*e in recent centuries and is responsible !or the increased temperatures" thou h the data &ould su rapidE. .nother common alle ation made b# the sceptics is that .ntarctica is actuall# ainin ice0 &hich is true o! sea ice but .ntarctica is losin its land ice at an acceleratin rate D&hich a!!ects sea le*elsE and0 !urthermore0 the reasons !or sea ice increasin are complicated and ha*e less to do &ith carbon le*els and more to do &ith stratospheric coolin o*er .ntarctica due to oLone destruction and chan in ocean circulation2J. %erhaps the most popular claim o! the sceptics0 ho&e*er0 is that there is no scienti!ic consensus. Some 620000 .merican scientists (thou h not0 b# an# means0 all climatolo ists0 scientists in the accepted science or e*en all ali*e 29) ha*e alle edl# si ned a petition re5ectin the claim that reenhouse as emissions are dama in the climate. $t is the sceptics= ar ument0 there!ore0 that &e should be hesitant to act hastil# on a phenomenon &hich ma# not e*en e8ist60. 620000 is a sta erin !i ure but means *er# little unless put in its proper conte8t. Fespite this petition o! dubious le itimac#0 an o*er&helmin 9H.BK o! expert climate scientists a ree that carbon emissions are ha*in an impact on the climate 62. Compare this &ith 5ust 5JK o! the eneral public and it is ob*ious that the sceptics= claims are ha*in the desired e!!ect0 e*en i! the# are not alto ether true. est a sli ht decrease in solar acti*it# across the past 60 #ears 2H D&hen &armin has otten most ests that &ith the meltin o! the 7arth=s ice more carbon dio8ide &ill enter the atmosphere and

$! e8pert climatolo ists almost uni*ersall# hold the belie! that lobal &armin is anthropo enic0 then &h# does the debate continue> 'ell0 besides the !e& percent &ho disa ree that carbon dio8ide is responsible !or present &armin Dand some le*el o! dissent is al&a#s ine*itable9 a science ad*isor to %residents 4ohnson and Ni8on &ent to his ra*e den#in the theor# o! plate tectonics62E0 it is because most o! the sceptics are not themsel*es scientists66. The most !amous e8ample o! a non"e8pert debunkin the lobal &armin ?hoa8= in recent #ears is surel# Christopher )onckton Dor Christopher 'alter )onckton0 6rd Miscount )onckton o! Crenchle#0 to i*e him his !ull titleE &ho &as the author o! a t&o"part e8posN published b# the Sunda# Tele raph in No*ember 20066B. .lthou h not a climatolo ist o! an# reat note0 )onckton=s pieces had the contrarians cro&in triumphant at the time. $t is a pit#0 then0 that his contributions &ere also riddled &ith error0 a (mi8ture o! cherr#"pickin 0 do&nri ht misrepresentation and pseudo"scienti!ic ibberish1 but &ith the (*irtue o! bein

incomprehensible to an#one &ho is not an atmospheric ph#sicist.165 .nd that is the cru8 o! the problem. Charlatans such as )onckton0 those actin out o! *ested interests0 are ne*er oin to be sub5ect to the ri orous peer"re*ie& process to &hich the climatolo ists are Iuite ri htl# sub5ect0 but b# makin enou h noise0 b# eneratin enou h publicit# !or themsel*es0 the# create con!usion and mislead the public into thinkin the debate is on oin &hen0 trul#0 the e8perts are all but unanimous in their belie! that lobal &armin is anthropo enic. $t also i*es the polic# makers somethin to hide behind0 to *alidate their inaction9 the# are merel# public ser*ants carr#in out the &ill o! the people0 &hate*er that mi ht be. There is no Iuestion that ?Climate ate= coupled &ith the e*en more recent scandal that the $%CC=s prediction that the <imala#an laciers mi ht melt to a !i!th o! present da# *olumes b# 2065 ma# ha*e been out b# o*er 600 #ears due to a t#po 66 ha*e dama ed the credibilit# o! the ar ument !or anthropo enic lobal &armin and i*en the sceptics considerable ammunition in the !orthcomin debates. $t has also

seen the mood o! the public shi!t9 &here once bein ( reen1 &as en *o ue it is climate scepticism &hich is no& in !ashion6H. <o&e*er0 the science behind climate chan e is still robust and o*er&helmin 0 in spite o! &hat the sceptics mi ht claim. The leaked emails concern three or !our scientists at one research centre and a hand!ul o! lines o! incriminatin e*idence0 #et0 &hat the# do not do is destro# the entire canon o! climate science6. Science is about the pursuit o! truth and kno&led e. $n holdin back data that did not suit his a enda %hil 4ones has contradicted that spirit and his resi nation0 or at least his dismissal0 ou ht to be ine*itable. 4ones &as probabl# actin out o! a mis uided sense o! ri hteousness0 !earin that the release o! data that mi ht empo&er the sceptics &ould be harm!ul to the idea o! anthropo enic lobal &armin . The iron# is that0 in not releasin the data0 he ma# ha*e handed *ictor# to the sceptics and dealt the public perception o! climate chan e its sin le0 most de*astatin blo&6J. The e*idence !or anthropo enic climate chan e is still there0 the challen e !or the climatolo ists and $%CC no& is to restore public !aith in their &ork.

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http:QQ&&&. uardian.co.ukQen*ironmentQ2020Q!ebQ0HQclimate"chan e"science" public"trust