d4b Report

Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data
By: Kirsten Anderson and Ashley Northcotte For: Ian Smith
March 20
2014
GISC9308 Spatial Statistics Deliverable 4b
March 20, 2014 Deliverable 4b Spatial Statistics Ian Smith, M.Sc., OLS, OLIP Instructor and Thesis Project Co-ordinator Niagara College, NOTL Campus 135 Taylor Rd. Niagara-On-The-Lake, ON, L0S 1J0
Dear Mr. Smith, RE: GISC9308 Deliverable 4b Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data Please accept this letter as a formal submission of Deliverable 4b Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data for GISC9308, Spatial Statistics. The purpose of this deliverable is to describe pit site locations and Bank Swallow population data geostatistically and practically. This was done by creating geospatial coverages that interpolates Bank Swallow population data. The techniques utilized for this deliverable were inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and indicator kriging. It was determined that the inverse distance weighted method was the better method for interpolating the Bank Swallow population data. If there are technical difficulties regarding the documents or necessary questions regarding the documents, please contact me at your convenience at (289) 259-2790. Thank you very much for your time and I look forward to your comments and feedback regarding this deliverable.
Sincerely,
Kirsten Anderson, BAH GIS-GM Certificate Candidate KA/ Enclosures: i. Deliverable 4b - Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data Cc. A Northcotte, BAH, B.Ed., OCT
Kirsten Anderson & Ashley Northcotte 135 Taylor Rd. Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario. L0S 1J0 Phone (905) 641-2252 E-mail kirstenpatrice@gmail.com
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Executive Summary
This deliverable examines data analysis, both geostatistically and practically. The study area is described in order to give the data context. The data being examined across the study area is pit site locations and Bank Swallow populations at each location. This data is studied by using histograms, quantile-quantile plots, global trends, and spatial autocorrelation. To geostatistically analyze the information, inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and indicator kriging layers were generated. By creating these layers, Bank Swallow populations were interpolated over the study area. It was determined that inverse distance weighted method was the better method for interpolating the Bank Swallow population data.
Kirsten Anderson & Ashley Northcotte 1208 Lansdown Drive Oakville, Ontario L6J 7N6 Phone (289) 259-2790 E-mail kirstenpatrice@gmail.com
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Table of Contents
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Goal ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Study Area ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Data Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Histogram of Bank Swallow Populations ...................................................................................... 3
4.1.1 Measures of Shape....................................................................................................................... 4 4.1.2 Measures of Location ................................................................................................................... 4 4.1.3 Measures of Spread ..................................................................................................................... 4 4.2 4.3 4.4 Quantile-Quantile Plot .................................................................................................................. 4 Global Trends ................................................................................................................................ 5 Spatial Autocorrelation ................................................................................................................. 7
4.4.1 Semivariogram ............................................................................................................................. 7 4.4.2 Covariance.................................................................................................................................... 8 5.0 Methodology..................................................................................................................................... 8
5.1 Inverse Distance Weighting ................................................................................................................ 8 5.2 Kriging ............................................................................................................................................... 10 5.2.1 Ordinary Kriging ......................................................................................................................... 10 5.2.2 Indicator Kriging ......................................................................................................................... 11 6.0 6.1 Findings ........................................................................................................................................... 12 Inverse Distance Weighted Method ........................................................................................... 12
6.2 Ordinary Kriging Method .................................................................................................................. 15 6.2 Indicator Kriging Method ............................................................................................................ 18
7.0 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 21 8.0 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 22
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Bank Swallow Burrows (Barber)..................................................................................................... 1 Figure 2: Study Area ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 3: Histogram of Bank Swallow Data ................................................................................................... 3 Figure 4: QQ Plot for Bank Swallow Data Distribution ................................................................................. 5 Figure 5: NW Trend Analysis of Bank Swallow Populations.......................................................................... 6 Figure 6: SE Trend Analysis of Bank Swallow Populations ............................................................................ 6 Figure 7: Semivariogram of Bank Swallow Populations................................................................................ 7 Figure 8: Covariance Cloud of Bank Swallow Populations ............................................................................ 8 Figure 9: Cross Validation of Bank Swallow Populations based on IDW ...................................................... 9 Figure 10: Standardized Error for Bank Swallow Populations based on Kriging......................................... 11 Figure 11: Inverse Distance Weighted Model............................................................................................. 12 Figure 12: IDW for High Population Areas .................................................................................................. 13 Figure 13: IDW for Low Population Areas ................................................................................................... 14 Figure 14: Ordinary Kriging Model .............................................................................................................. 15 Figure 15: Ordinary Kriging for High Population Areas ............................................................................... 16 Figure 16: Ordinary Kriging for Low Population Areas ............................................................................... 17 Figure 17: Indicator Kriging for Nesting Probability.................................................................................... 18 Figure 18: Indicator Kriging for High Populations Areas ............................................................................. 19 Figure 19: Indicator Kriging for Low Population Areas ............................................................................... 20
List of Appendices
Appendix 1: Pit Site Locations and Bank Swallow Populations ............................................................ 23
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1.0 Introduction
The Bank Swallow is a migratory, highly social insectivore, nesting in colonies ranging from 3 to 2,000 burrows (Ontario Stone, Sand and Gravel Association, 2013). It travels to South America for the winter months, returning to Canada for breeding season around the beginning of May (Ontario Stone, Sand and Gravel Association, 2013). During this time, Bank Swallow individuals choose their colony site, followed by burrow site, based on previous year breeding success (Cornell Lab of Ornithology, 2011). Error! Reference source not found. illustrates Bank Swallow burrows. These sites are usually located in sand and gravel pits, and vertical banks along rivers, streams and lakes (Cornell Lab of Ornithology, 2011).
Figure 1: Bank Swallow Burrows (Barber)
The Government of Canada classifies species at risk as being; extirpated, endangered, threatened, or of special concern (Government of Canada, 2013). The Bank Swallow is currently under assessment to determine whether or not it is at risk in Canada. Mr. Mike Cadman of the Canadian Wildlife Service is interested in assessing the long-term population decline of these three species to understand the reasoning behind this decrease. To develop a better understanding of the locations of pit and quarry sites that are used and not used by the Bank Swallow species. This information will be useful for generating management strategies in the creation of pits and quarries, as well as habitat conservation. For the purpose of this study, the number of burrows is an index population and it is to be assumed that for each Bank Swallow site, an index of 50% should be used (Cadman, 2014). Therefore, 50% of the burrows are occupied by a mated pair (Cadman, 2014).
Kirsten Anderson & Ashley Northcotte 1208 Lansdown Drive Oakville, Ontario L6J 7N6 Phone (289) 259-2790 E-mail kirstenpatrice@gmail.com
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2.0 Goal
To develop a better understanding of the locations of pit and quarry sites that are used and not used by the Bank Swallow species. This information will be useful for generating management strategies in the creation of pits and quarries, as well as habitat conservation.
3.0 Study Area

The study area consists of 2 Ecoregions that comprise southern Ontario; Ecoregions 6E, and 7E (Error! Reference source not found.).
Figure 2: Study Area
The symbols in Error! Reference source not found. are the 121 pit sites in two Ecoregions that will be assessed for this study. The pit site location data was collected by Mike Cadman in the summer of 2013 using a GPS. The entrance to each pit site location was established and recorded as well as the corresponding number of Bank Swallow burrows for each site. In order to minimize error in the data collection, Mike Cadman and Mark Browning of the Ministry of Natural Resources, collected all the locations. This information was given to Geospatial Tech in an excel file.
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Appendix 1 displays the Easting and Northing coordinates, along with the UTM zone in order to plot the pit locations. The
pit sites were mapped using the Easting and Northing coordinates (Figure 2). The points in UTM zone 17 had to be separated from the points in UTM zone 18 and plotted separately, since the coordinate systems are different. The points were plotted on a map of Ontario, provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources. The population data were also collected by Mike Cadman in the summer of 2013. This data includes nesting/burrow sites derived from each of the 121 pit sites throughout Southern Ontario. In order to minimize error in the data collection, Mike Cadman and Mark Browning collected all the total number of Bank Swallow burrows at each site. The total number of Bank Swallow burrows for each pit site is recorded in
Appendix 1. 4.0 Data Analysis

Before beginning the data interpolation process, it was important to examine the spatial data to determine accurate interpolation methods.
4.1 Histogram of Bank Swallow Populations

A histogram was used for the examination of the Bank Swallow population/number of burrows data (Figure 3).
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Graph of Bank Swallow Populations

85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 [0.; 49.091) [98.182; 147.273) [245.455; 294.545) [392.727; 441.818)
Count
BANS___Tot
Figure 3: Histogram of Bank Swallow Data
4.1.1 Measures of Shape There are several measures of shape when looking at the nature of the data. A frequency distribution is displayed in a histogram which counts the data which falls into each bin range (Babish, 2006). Figure 3 illustrates that there are several points with a low number of burrows and a few points with high numbers causing the data to be severely positively skewed. There is an extreme skew revealed in the data showing the distribution is asymmetric, which is largely influenced by the mean and median values (Babish, 2006). The skew represented in the data is a positive skew, where the distributions mean is greater than the median, with the tail of the data distribution to the right. A skew value of 2.5774 reiterates the extreme positive skew in the data (Babish, 2006). Kurtosis is a measure of the distribution of the data around the mean measuring how peaked or flat the data is as well as the thickness of the tails in the distribution (Babish, 2006). A kurtosis value of 9.4814 represents a distribution with higher peaks and thinner tails (Figure 3). The substantial skewness and kurtosis values indicate a data set that is not normally distributed and was difficult to correct for due to the large amounts of Z values equal to zero.
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4.1.2 Measures of Location The mean of the data is 56.19, which is a sum of all the data values divided by the total amount of data values (Babish, 2006). Normally the mean can be a good gage of central tendency, however, the skew in the data would have an influence from the extreme data values in this data set (Babish, 2006). The median of this dataset is zero. This explains that 62 of the points have values greater than zero, while the remaining 59 points have a value of zero. Therefore, the mode would equal zero if more than half of the data points had no burrows for their locations and since it is not close to the mean of 56.19, it supports the distribution not being near normal (Babish, 2006). Quartiles are a percentage of points below a certain value which can be read from the frequency distribution (Babish, 2006). The data set being examined has a 1st quartile value of 0 and a 3rd quartile value of 58.5. 4.1.3 Measures of Spread The measures of spread look at the variability on the data set (Babish, 2006). The range for this data set is the lowest and highest numbers of the data distribution, which for this data set is considerably large for the amount of data points. The range of the data being is 0 to 540. The standard deviation uses the square root of the variance, which can be used to describe the difference in the data. The standard deviation for this data set is 107.14.
4.2 Quantile-Quantile Plot

A quantile-quantile (QQ) plot is useful for graphical location estimations, illustrating how well calculated predicted data distributions fit with the original dataset (SAS, 2014). The trend line in Figure 4 represents the predicted data distribution, where the original data and predicted data distribution do not agree because the plotted data points do not typically fall near or on the line (SAS, 2014).
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Normal QQPlot Transformation: None

Dataset 10 5.4
4.32
3.24
2.16
1.08
0 -2.64
-2.11
-1.58
-1.06
-0.53
0 Standard Normal Value
0.53
1.06
1.58
2.11
2.64
Dataset : Pit Sites Attribute: BANS___Tot

Figure 4: QQ Plot for Bank Swallow Data Distribution
This is represented by the slightly curved pattern with the slope, increasing from left to right expressive of the data distribution being positively skewed (SAS, 2014).
4.3 Global Trends

The pit site location and Bank Swallow population data shows a global trend. Figure 5 shows the global trend in a NorthWest direction, since the rotations angle is 0, and North-West is the default direction.
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Figure 5: NW Trend Analysis of Bank Swallow Populations
Figure 6 displays the global trend in a South-East direction, since the rotation angle is 180.
Figure 6: SE Trend Analysis of Bank Swallow Populations

Page |8 The locations of the pit sites are plotted on the X Y plane of the graph in Figures 5 and 6. The Z values, in this case the Bank Swallow populations, are indicated by the vertical bars emerging from the location points (ArcGIS, 2012). The location points are also plotted on the X Z and Y Z planes. The global trends are also plotted on these planes, using the default second-order polynomials to show data trends (ArcGIS, 2012). These trends are displayed as blue and green lines in figures 5 and 6. Since the lines are curved in both graphs, the pit site locations and Bank Swallow populations data has a global trend in all directions.
4.4 Spatial Autocorrelation

Measures of autocorrelation can offer supplemental estimates of variability throughout the data (Babish, 2006). These forms of spatial representation procedures are useful because they are typically less affected by outliers, skewed distributions, or clustered data (Babish, 2006). 4.4.1 Semivariogram A semivariogram provides a graphical representation of spatial data by plotting distance and variance in order to examine the spatial relationships between a data set (Figure 7).
Semivariogram/Covariance Cloud
g 10
1.22
0.97
0.73
0.49
0.24
0.75
26370 26370 22000 22000 17630 17630 13260 13260 8888 8888 4516 4516 144.6 144.6
1.51
2.26
3.01 Distance, h 10
3.76
4.52
5.27
6.02

Figure 7: Semivariogram of Bank Swallow Populations
A semivariogram is a statistical model that assumes the input data are normally distributed, which for examining Bank Swallow nesting site predictability may not be the most accurate representation due to the skewness of the data
Page |9 (Babish, 2006). This is represented in Figure 7, where samples taken from two point close together in distance, may potentially have very different values (Babish, 2006). 4.4.2 Covariance The covariance cloud is similar in nature to the semivariogram as it measures the strength of the correlation based on distance (Figure 8). Close points are expected to be more similar than those that are further apart (Babish, 2006). When the locations get further apart, they are less correlated and the covariance will eventually become zero (Babish, 2006).
Semivariogram/Covariance Cloud
C 10 1.87
1.4
0.94
0.47
-0.47 0
0.75
23550 23550 18540 18540 13540 13540 8532 8532 3527 3527 -1477 -1477 -6482 -6482
1.51
2.26
3.01 Distance, h 10
3.76
4.52
5.27
6.02

Figure 8: Covariance Cloud of Bank Swallow Populations
5.0 Methodology
Interpolation is a statistical method which utilizes limited values from existing data points in a raster to predict other unknown data points for geographic point data (ArcGIS, 2012). The following outlines the interpolation methods utilized to estimate the Bank Swallow populations across southern Onatrio.
5.1 Inverse Distance Weighting

Inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation is a geostatistical method using a known set of scattered points and assumes variables close to one another are more similar and therefore more influenced by one another, than those which are further apart (ArcGIS, 2013). The process of the IDW estimates unknown point values by averaging the sample data points, assigning a higher weight or average to the nearest unknown spatial data points (ArcGIS, 2012). When the
P a g e | 10 IDW surface was generated, the population numbers were decimals, and Bank Swallow population numbers must be whole numbers. This was fixed by rounding the range values to whole numbers. A geostatistical layer was created from the IDW layer in order to expand the IDW to the ecoregions 6 and 7 borders by changing the processing extent to the border shapefile. Once this layer was generated, it was exported to a raster and the Ontario shapefile was used as a mask so that the IDW did not extend into the water bodies. Cross validation is used to check the models accuracy of the models assumptions (Babish, 2006). Figure 9 represents the difference between the actual data points and the estimates values for the locations (Babish, 2006).
Figure 9: Cross Validation of Bank Swallow Populations based on IDW
If the estimated points matched perfectly with the actual points, they were line up in a straight line at a 45 degree angle, such as the grey line in Figure 9 (Babish, 2006). Figure 9 illustrates that the IDW model prediction was not very accurate in that the blue tread line, which indicates the trend line for the predicted data points, is not near the ideal trend line. Therefore, it is evident that this prediction is not accurate because the points do not fall on, or near, the trend line.
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5.2 Kriging
Kriging is another form of interpolation which uses knowledge of underlying spatial autocorrelation to assign weights, in order to find values for unsampled surface location points (Babish, 2006). A weighted average is created and changes according to the geographic arrangement of the samples. (Babish, 2006). The further away the points are, the lower the associated weight. The closer the points are together, a higher weight is received (Babish, 2006). 5.2.1 Ordinary Kriging The ordinary kriging model was chosen for the purpose of this study because of the nature of the data. Since there is only one variable being examined and predicted and there was not a strong trend or correlation in the data, co-kriging and universal kriging methods were not logical choices based on the spread and lack of correlation in the data (United States Department of Agriculture, 2007). Ordinary kriging minimizes the error variance and has been used as an estimator on data which displayed no trend and is not dependent on the data used for the estimate (United States Department of Agriculture, 2007). Ordinary kriging was therefore ordinary kriging was a logical choice to interpolate the Bank Swallow population data. Cross validation will verify the prediction of the kriging model. The kriging model tends to under-predict the higher values and over-predict the lower values (Babish, 2006). The further away from the tread line the predicted data points fall, the more inaccurate the prediction is. Upon further investigation, Figure 10 represents the standardized error for the kriging process.
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Figure 10: Standardized Error for Bank Swallow Populations based on Kriging
The standardized error for kriging is higher for lower values and for lower for higher values, which further explains that as the values increase, the error decreases. This is rational because kriging does not compute values of zero accurately, which comprise almost half of the data values for the data set in this study. 5.2.2 Indicator Kriging Indicator kriging is a kriging method that can produce an appealing result while using skewed data and predicts the probability that the Z value will be above the threshold value (ArcGIS, 2012). Indicator kriging was used in this study to estimate a distribution of values within an area, such as Bank Swallow populations, rather than the mean values (United States Department of Agriculture, 2007).
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6.0 Findings
The following displays the map outputs of the findings regarding the IDW, ordinary kriging, and indicator kriging methods. The landscape attributes have been used to compare the accuracy of the results and are focused on in the findings, since these factors are the most important aspect in determining where the Bank Swallow will nest.
6.1 Inverse Distance Weighted Method

Figure 11 shows the Bank Swallow nesting site prediction in southern Ontario using the inverse distance weighted model.
Figure 11: Inverse Distance Weighted Model
The areas with the highest predicted populations are around the pit sites with the highest Bank Swallow populations represented in red. As expected, the surrounding area of the pit sites with no Bank Swallows is not expected to contain
P a g e | 14 any burrows. The result also portrays a large amount of area that will contain burrows between 26-75 which could be to the uncertainty in the model in selecting whether there will or will not be burrows. Figure 12 shows an area where the Bank Swallow population is expected to be high, overlaid on orthoimagery to display to landscape attributes in the area.
Figure 12: IDW for High Population Areas
The area covered by the estimation of a high Bank Swallow population consists of; agricultural land, roads, forest, and quarries. It is located in and around other pit sites which may outline why there are a higher amount of burrows located in this particular area.
P a g e | 15 Figure 13 also shows the IDW layer overlaid on the orthoimagery, however, the area of interest is an area that is expected to have no, or a small amount, of burrows.
Figure 13: IDW for Low Population Areas
The area covered by the IDW states there will likely be no birds in this area consists of; agricultural land, roads, forest, and residential areas. This may or may not be accurate in that the Bank Swallow has an affinity for nesting near agricultural areas; however, they tend to avoid nesting near largely urbanized areas.
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6.2 Ordinary Kriging Method

The ordinary kriging model output is represented in Figure 14.
Figure 14: Ordinary Kriging Model
For this model, the areas that are expected to have a high Bank Swallow population are very close to those areas in the IDW model, which makes sense because these areas are around the pit sites with the highest Bank Swallow populations. There are other highly predicted areas surrounding the highest burrow estimation, which is logical in that there may be Bank Swallows in and around the actual point.
P a g e | 17 Figure 15 shows a region expected to have a high Bank Swallow population, according to the ordinary kriging model.
Figure 15: Ordinary Kriging for High Population Areas
The ordinary kiriging model has outlined the zone of expected high Bank Swallow population which is comprised of; agricultural land, roads, and nearby residential areas. These results outline that the surrounding areas have a high probability of having Bank Swallow in these areas.
P a g e | 18 An area expected to have no Bank Swallows is displayed in Figure 16.
Figure 16: Ordinary Kriging for Low Population Areas
This area consists of the same attributes as the area anticipated to have a low Bank Swallow population, as indicated by the ordinary kriging model. These results show that the Bank Swallows will not chose to nest in these areas comprised of, residential areas, agricultural land, and roads.
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6.2 Indicator Kriging Method

The indicator kriging method displays the probability that Bank Swallows will nest in an area (Figure 17).
Figure 17: Indicator Kriging for Nesting Probability
The regions expected to have a high Bank Swallow population are much different than the areas estimated to have high population in the IDW and ordinary kriging models. Also, the area expected to have little to no Bank Swallow is much larger than this expected area according to the IDW and ordinary kriging models.
P a g e | 20 Figure 18 shows an area expected to have a high Bank Swallow population, according to the indicator kriging model.
Figure 18: Indicator Kriging for High Populations Areas
According to the indicator kriging model, Bank Swallows are likely to nest in areas with agricultural land, roads, and a great deal of residential area.
P a g e | 21 Figure 19 shows the same model but in an area that is expected to have very few Bank Swallows.
Figure 19: Indicator Kriging for Low Population Areas
A single road, a small patch of residential area, lakes, and forests, covers this section of land. In summary, according to the results it would appear that the Bank Swallows are expected to nest in areas that encompass agricultural land, roads, forest, quarries, and residential areas. This is contradictory to where nests are predicted to be both high and low, since each of these areas incorporates agricultural land, roads, forest, residential areas, and lakes. This is because these models only take into account the Bank Swallow populations and where they are located, not any other factors or attributes which could affect the burrow or nesting locations of this species.
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7.0 Conclusion
In summary of the results for each of models, it would appear that neither method was very accurate at predicting where Bank Swallows would choose to nest. The cross validation of the inverse distance weighted illustrated that the predicted values did not fall near the ideal trend line. The distance of the predicted model from the actual model says that it was not overly accurate in predicting the values. This could be due to several factors, which are beyond the control and scope of this study. The probability of Bank Swallows nesting in a certain area is based on the attributes of the landscape, not on the location and population of each of the pit sites relative to one another. As a result, these interpolation methods are not accurate for the purposes of determining Bank Swallow population locations, due to the variability in their decision making process. This is also due to the fact that predicting where an animal will choose to inhabit cannot be predicted by a surface interpolation. Since the kriging process does compute data values of zero accurately, the IDW process would be chosen as the better prediction model of the two for the interpolation of Bank Swallow populations in southern Ontario.
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8.0 Bibliography
ArcGIS. (2012). ArcGIS Help 10.1. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from ArcGIS Resources: http://resources.arcgis.com/en/help/main/10.1/index.html#//009z000000z4000000 ArcGIS. (2013, June 26). ArcGIS Resource Centre. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from Desktop 10: http://help.arcgis.com/en/arcgisdesktop/10.0/help/index.html#//00310000002m000000 Babish, G. (2006). Geostatistics Without Tears: A Practical guide to Surface Interpolation, Geostatistics, Variograms and Kriging. Regina: Environmental Conservation Branch. Barber, J. Bank Swallow and Nesting Burrows. Cadman, M. (2014). Bank Swallow Populations. (A. Northcotte, Interviewer) Cornell Lab of Ornithology. (2011). Bank Swallow. Retrieved December 8, 2013, from Birds of North America: http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/414/articles/habitat Government of Canada. (2013, December 3). Species at Risk Public Registry. Retrieved December 8, 2013, from Government of Canada: http://www.sararegistry.gc.ca/species/default_e.cfm Natural Resources Canada. (2008, February 4). Government of Canada. Retrieved December 7, 2013, from Natural Resources Canada: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/earth-sciences/geography-boundary/remotesensing/fundamentals/2035 Ontario Stone, Sand and Gravel Association. (2013, April 26). Bank Swallow (Riparia riparia) Fact Sheet. Mississauga , Ontario, Canada. SAS. (2014). SAS The Power to Know. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from Procedures Guide: Statisitical Procedures, Third Edition: https://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/procstat/63104/HTML/default/viewer.htm#procstat_univariate _sect040.htm Smith, I. D. (2014). Deliverable 4b - Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data. Niagara-On-The-Lake: Niagara College. United States Department of Agriculture. (2007, Auguest 21). Why Use Ordinary Kriging. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from Air Resource Management: http://webcam.srs.fs.fed.us/impacts/ozone/spatial/kriging.shtml
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Appendix 1: Pit Site Locations and Bank Swallow Populations

ID UTM Zone Easting Northing Site Type Bank Swallow Total Number of Burrows
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
559819 4816231 569519 4812817 568468 4810873 566636 4851151 520646 4881968 512639 4878707 501551 4791588 498480 4762084 525722 4869331 493760 4872883 490096 4880815 498309 4763508 463438 4755308 512039 4782624 549707 4742534 553024 4788004 533281 4807386 517538 4817684 535683 4833062 491396 4846704 475524 4847785 475489 4847658 474748 4844419 451335 4844616 451197 4843827 476867 4834870 407279 4717160 429585 4703087 420628 4689969 364190 4660916 364129 4661035 425580 4754865 436786 4768190 435255 4769770 450557 4856618 470608 4846767 452344 4834438 472277 4809429 494042 4765368.692
Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Quarry Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit
0 42 0 42 17 73 22 0 0 389 93 0 99 493 61 6 211 540 0 0 0 0 56 0 31 103 8 19 113 155 213 0 40 0 0 0 85 69 0
P a g e | 25 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 17 435154 4777864 Pit 17 428918 4783080 Pit 17 494609 4913570 Pit 17 490738.9507 4916987.741 Pit 17 500420 4926866 Pit 17 474110 4893354 Pit 17 470877 4921867 Pit 17 479750 4952969 Pit 17 478896 4978265 Pit 17 450110 5008210 Pit 17 448097 5008121 Pit 17 479209 4978930 Pit 17 453624 4903387 Pit 17 460508 4892095 Pit 17 498824 4803826 Pit 17 587100 4812761 Pit 17 582002 4832267 Pit 17 579721 4855699 Pit 17 645658 4880883 Pit 17 647175 4880145 Pit 17 648016 4879916 Pit 17 652706 4890227 Pit 17 579951 4954857 Pit 17 621142 4942407 Pit 17 620211 4948695 Quarry 17 626408 4954587 Quarry 17 626830 4956594 Pit 17 612275 4932910 Pit 17 566281 4920131 Pit 17 682947 4896925 Pit 17 695725 4914391 Pit 17 700309 4941851 Quarry 17 674215 4926775 Pit 17 665707 4926604 Pit 17 649490 4879042 Pit 17 592281 4956774 Pit 17 577657 4757762 Quarry 17 550481 4779550 Pit 17 713448 4921041 Pit 17 716937 4885175 Pit 17 727710 4887349 Pit
404 13 0 0 0 86 41 0 0 0 0 0 22 49 0 12 4 281 0 2 58 304 0 276 0 0 0 0 0 285 0 0 0 8 60 0 0 0 104 0 263
P a g e | 26 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 733289 434981.4 409044.8 402965.3 276016.5 267519 275785 272466 273019 266227 283402 300109 355443 357908 361315 394883 390025 390000 385105 329302 334924 315387 326702 327157 327049 299552 331702 354863 348629 369302 377833 369569 390736 368032 376106 348861 443831 452318 452137 453331 452355 4896898 5059999.9 5080150.3 5058480.2 5124660 4908389 4877861 4880376 4879992 4904919 4884309 4944091 4900850 4917272 4920549 4915052 4914605 4914598 4912579 4917600 4923047 4928419 4866504 4873715 4873253 4907290 4946026 5072523 5055846 5041959 5035876 5041611 5027190 5038809 5035955 5056058 4956239 4959949 4960478 4958868 4959309 Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Quarry Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Quarry Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit Pit 0 0 3 0 0 229 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 46 37 145 43 157 91 0 0 67 92 402 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 82 0 0 0 0 30
P a g e | 27 122 123 124 125 126 127 18 18 18 18 18 18 454031 456367 493593 436369 409089 292308 4986380 4990272 4995205 5014705 4930656 4902481 Pit Pit Pit Quarry Pit Pit 0 11 6 55 0 15

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Geostatistical Analysis of Student Collected Spatial Data

By: Kirsten Anderson and Ashley Northcotte For: Ian Smith

GISC9308 Spatial Statistics Deliverable 4b

Figure 1: Bank Swallow Burrows (Barber)

3.0 Study Area

Figure 2: Study Area

Appendix 1. 4.0 Data Analysis

4.1 Histogram of Bank Swallow Populations

Graph of Bank Swallow Populations

Figure 3: Histogram of Bank Swallow Data

4.2 Quantile-Quantile Plot

Normal QQPlot Transformation: None

0 Standard Normal Value

Dataset : Pit Sites Attribute: BANS___Tot

4.3 Global Trends

Figure 5: NW Trend Analysis of Bank Swallow Populations

Figure 6: SE Trend Analysis of Bank Swallow Populations

4.4 Spatial Autocorrelation

Dataset : Pit Sites Attribute: BANS___Tot

Dataset : Pit Sites Attribute: BANS___Tot

5.1 Inverse Distance Weighting

Figure 9: Cross Validation of Bank Swallow Populations based on IDW

6.1 Inverse Distance Weighted Method

Figure 11: Inverse Distance Weighted Model

Figure 12: IDW for High Population Areas

Figure 13: IDW for Low Population Areas

6.2 Ordinary Kriging Method

Figure 14: Ordinary Kriging Model

Figure 15: Ordinary Kriging for High Population Areas

P a g e | 18 An area expected to have no Bank Swallows is displayed in Figure 16.

Figure 16: Ordinary Kriging for Low Population Areas

6.2 Indicator Kriging Method

Figure 17: Indicator Kriging for Nesting Probability

Figure 18: Indicator Kriging for High Populations Areas

Figure 19: Indicator Kriging for Low Population Areas

Appendix 1: Pit Site Locations and Bank Swallow Populations

0 42 0 42 17 73 22 0 0 389 93 0 99 493 61 6 211 540 0 0 0 0 56 0 31 103 8 19 113 155 213 0 40 0 0 0 85 69 0

404 13 0 0 0 86 41 0 0 0 0 0 22 49 0 12 4 281 0 2 58 304 0 276 0 0 0 0 0 285 0 0 0 8 60 0 0 0 104 0 263

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