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Contents
Chapter 1: What Is Simulation?........................................................................................... 1
1.1 Modeling.............................................................................................................................1
1.1.1 Whats Being Modeled?................................................................................2
1.1.2 How About Just Playing with the System?....................................................3
1.1.3 Sometimes You Cant (or Shouldnt) Play with the System..........................3
1.1.4 Physical Models.............................................................................................4
1.1.5 Logical (or Mathematical) Models................................................................4
1.1.6 What Do You Do with a Logical Model?......................................................4
1.2
Computer Simulation..........................................................................................................5
1.2.1 Popularity and Advantages............................................................................5
1.2.2 The Bad News................................................................................................6
1.2.3 Different Kinds of Simulations......................................................................7
1.3
How Simulations Get Done................................................................................................8
1.3.1 By Hand.........................................................................................................8
1.3.2 Programming in General-Purpose Languages.............................................10
1.3.3 Simulation Languages.................................................................................10
1.3.4 High-Level Simulators.................................................................................10
1.3.5 Where Arena Fits In.....................................................................................11
1.4
When Simulations Are Used.............................................................................................12
1.4.1
The Early Years............................................................................................12
1.4.2
The Formative Years....................................................................................12
1.4.3 The Recent Past...........................................................................................13
1.4.4 The Present..................................................................................................13
1.4.5 The Future....................................................................................................14
2.3
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An Example......................................................................................................................15
2.1.1 The System..................................................................................................15
2.1.2 Goals of the Study.......................................................................................17
Analysis Options...............................................................................................................18
2.2.1 Educated Guessing.......................................................................................18
2.2.2 Queueing Theory.........................................................................................19
2.2.3 Mechanistic Simulation...............................................................................20
Pieces of a Simulation Model...........................................................................................20
2.3.1 Entities.........................................................................................................20
2.3.2 Attributes.....................................................................................................21
2.3.3 (Global) Variables........................................................................................21
2.3.4 Resources.....................................................................................................22
2.3.5 Queues.........................................................................................................22
2.3.6 Statistical Accumulators..............................................................................23
2.3.7 Events..........................................................................................................23
2.3.8 Simulation Clock.........................................................................................24
2.3.9 Starting and Stopping..................................................................................24
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Contents
2.4
3.3
3.4
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Starting Up........................................................................................................................53
Exploring the Arena Window............................................................................................55
3.2.1 Opening a Model.........................................................................................55
3.2.2 Basic Interaction and Pieces of the Arena Window.....................................56
3.2.3 Panning, Zooming, Viewing, and Aligning in the Flowchart View.............58
3.2.4 Modules.......................................................................................................60
3.2.5 Internal Model Documentation....................................................................61
Browsing Through an Existing Model: Model 3-1...........................................................62
3.3.1 The Create Flowchart Module.....................................................................62
3.3.2 The Entity Data Module..............................................................................63
3.3.3 The Process Flowchart Module...................................................................64
3.3.4 The Resource Data Module.........................................................................66
3.3.5 The Queue Data Module..............................................................................67
3.3.6 Animating Resources and Queues...............................................................67
3.3.7 The Dispose Flowchart Module...................................................................67
3.3.8 Connecting Flowchart Modules...................................................................68
3.3.9 Dynamic Plots..............................................................................................69
3.3.10 Dressing Things Up.....................................................................................71
3.3.11 Setting the Run Conditions..........................................................................72
3.3.12 Running It....................................................................................................73
3.3.13 Viewing the Reports.....................................................................................74
Building Model 3-1 Yourself.............................................................................................79
3.4.1 New Model Window and Basic Process Panel............................................80
3.4.2 Place and Connect the Flowchart Modules.................................................81
3.4.3 The Create Flowchart Module.....................................................................81
3.4.4 Displays.......................................................................................................82
3.4.5 The Entity Data Module..............................................................................83
3.4.6 The Process Flowchart Module...................................................................83
3.4.7 The Resource and Queue Data Modules.....................................................84
3.4.8 Resource Animation.....................................................................................84
3.4.9 The Dispose Flowchart Module...................................................................85
3.4.10 Dynamic Plots..............................................................................................85
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7.2
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Random-Number Generation..........................................................................................519
Generating Random Variates..........................................................................................525
12.2.1 Discrete......................................................................................................525
12.2.2 Continuous.................................................................................................527
Nonstationary Poisson Processes....................................................................................529
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12.4
Variance Reduction.........................................................................................................530
12.4.1 Common Random Numbers......................................................................531
12.4.2 Other Methods...........................................................................................537
12.5 Sequential Sampling.......................................................................................................538
12.5.1 Terminating Models...................................................................................539
12.5.2 Steady-State Models..................................................................................543
12.6 Designing and Executing Simulation Experiments........................................................545
12.7 Exercises.........................................................................................................................546
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Contents
Probability Basics...........................................................................................................579
Random Variables...........................................................................................................581
B.2.1 Basics.........................................................................................................581
B.2.2 Discrete......................................................................................................582
B.2.3 Continuous.................................................................................................584
B.2.4 Joint Distributions, Covariance, Correlation, and Independence..............586
B.3 Sampling and Sampling Distributions............................................................................589
B.4 Point Estimation..............................................................................................................591
B.5 Confidence Intervals.......................................................................................................591
B.6 Hypothesis Tests.............................................................................................................593
B.7 Exercises.........................................................................................................................595
References ......................................................................................................................615
Index
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