MARC H 1

Waiting for bifurcation

Presidents Rule in Andhra Pradesh was the only option left before the Union Cabinet after the resignation of Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, who also quit the Congress protesting against the bifurcation of the State. With most of the members of the Legislative Assembly divided on geographical lines, and party loyalty counting for nothing, no government would have been able to get adequate numbers for a vote of confidence. Moreover, with the election to the Assembly due to be held along with the Lok Sabha polls soon, none of the senior State leaders of the Congress could have been very enthusiastic about the prospect of serving the remainder of the term as an ineffectual Chief Minister. With the model code of conduct bound to become operative with the announcement of the election schedule, a new government would have been left without much leeway for even routine administrative decision-making. Thus, other than bringing together unwilling, disparate elements in a weak, ineffectual government in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress leadership had no option. Presidents Rule suggested itself to the Centre, and the Assembly could only be kept in suspended animation. Presidents Rule in Andhra Pradesh opens up another possibility for the Centre and the Congress: holding Assembly elections at a later date, and not simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls. Unlike in the case of the previous round of state-formation exercises involving Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh has been left to coincide with the parliamentary and State Assembly elections. Depending on the timing of the presidential assent and the notification of the appointed date for the formation of Telangana, elections will have to be held either to the composite Andhra Pradesh Assembly or to the two assemblies of Seemandhra and Telangana. Elections to two separate assemblies may well take some time to organise, but it does make political sense. The process of first forming a government for Andhra Pradesh in its current form out of the composite Assembly, and later for Telangana and Seemandhra after bifurcating the Assembly, can thus be avoided. However, while Presidents Rule can be justified on the ground that there was in Andhra Pradesh a situation of impasse as specified in the Bommai judgment, the postponement of the Assembly election will have no such justification. An alternative government might not have been possible from the current Assembly, but this in itself is no argument for postponing the Assembly election. Whether or not Telangana comes into being before the Lok Sabha polls, the Centre and the Election Commission need to take the most democratic course which is to put a popular government in place without delay.

The mischief in the rules

The refusal by two eminent jurists to join the Lokpal Search Committee is symptomatic of the credibility crisis that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) regime faces in its last days. Even the process of putting in place an independent anti-corruption ombudsman has been engulfed in controversy, exposing the government to the charge that it is in an unseemly hurry to appoint the body before the expiry of its term. At the very first meeting of the Selection Committee, Sushma

Swaraj, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, objected to the inclusion of senior advocate P.P. Rao in the selection panel as the fifth member, and her objection was overruled. Senior advocate Fali Nariman declined to be on the Search Committee, voicing the fear that in the twostage selection process, the most competent, the most independent and the most courageous will get overlooked. Retired Supreme Court judge, Justice K.T. Thomas, went through the Rules framed under the Lokpal and Lokayukta Act, and noted that the Search Committees recommendations were not binding on the Selection Committee, headed by the Prime Minister. Such controversies need not imply that the statutory framework for the Lokpal is substantively flawed; but when the finer points in the process that emerge after rules are framed appear loaded in favour of the ruling dispensation, the process itself becomes suspect. When the much-delayed Bill was passed in Parliament in December 2013, there was a sense of relief that a reasonably sound law was in place. However, the government equipped itself with some potential filters while framing the rules. The process involves a Selection Committee that will appoint a Search Committee. Going by the rules, the search panel will scrutinise only applications forwarded to it by the Department of Personnel and Training. The rule circumscribes the Search Committees role to choosing names out of a list submitted by the government and blocks any independent nomination from the community at large. Further, the panel of names recommended by it need not be accepted by the Selection Committee, which is free to consider names from outside the panel too. Empowering the apex committee with the freedom to go beyond the recommendations may not be inherently wrong. However, the potential for mischief in confining the first stage to a government list and conferring wide discretion on the selection panel in the second stage may ultimately result in some deserving candidates being ignored or, worse, someone deemed inconvenient being deliberately disregarded. The government needs to shore up the credibility of the process; as an immediate step, it should revisit the rules and give a free hand to the Search Committee to do its job.

Towards fair regulation

The importance of a strong regulator and even-handed regulation cannot be overemphasised in a critical sector such as power which is faced with numerous regulatory issues holding back its development. Two recent moves of the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), which regulates all central generation and transmission utilities and projects that sell electricity in more than one State, show that it is possible for a regulator to be practical and pragmatic while simultaneously protecting the interests of the consumer. Tata Powers 4,000 MW ultra mega power project (UMPP) in Mundra that depends on imported coal has been facing an existential challenge ever since the Indonesian government decided to charge an export tax on coal the company imports all its coal from Indonesia which made fuel costs prohibitively expensive. This badly hit the economics of the Mundra project, the first UMPP to have been commissioned, because the company cannot pass on the higher fuel cost to consumers as per the norms on which the project was awarded. Tata Power had to take an impairment charge on its balance sheet last year and ironically, the state-of-the-art power plant, which was commissioned on schedule, converted a profitable company into a loss-making one. It is in this backdrop that the company sought CERCs permission to pass on the higher fuel cost to consumers.

In what is a balanced decision, the regulator granted permission recently to Tata Power to charge a tariff of Rs.2.78 a unit, marking an increase of 52 paise from the originally contracted price. The regulator could have argued that the company should have anticipated such exigencies while bidding for the UMPP and on those grounds said no to higher tariffs. But that would have forced Tata Power to stop generation and cut losses and there would have been no winners. While the higher tariff will now cover most of the increased fuel costs for Tata Power, the final price is still affordable for the consumer. The regulator has also notified new tariff norms for the next five years for central generation and transmission utilities which aim to increase operating efficiencies and lower tariffs. For instance, the NTPC will find its incentives falling because the regulator has now linked them to capacity utilisation, which is a change from the current practice of linking them to the availability of generating stations. As a consequence of the new norms, tariffs could fall even as the generating stations are forced to improve operating efficiencies. The utilities may have to sacrifice a part of their margins in the short term but will stand to gain in the long term as a result of higher efficiencies.

When better sense prevailed

In choosing not to adopt the ordinance route to bring in anti-corruption measures, the United Progressive Alliance has managed to avoid questions about propriety and legality. It is unlikely that President Pranab Mukherjee could have been persuaded to promulgate ordinances to introduce laws that Parliament had the opportunity, but not the will, to enact. If the government had gone ahead, Mr. Mukherjee might have asked for reconsideration of the advice, causing embarrassment to the ruling party, especially its vice-president Rahul Gandhi. In the circumstances, it was surprising that the ordinance route was considered at all. It is true that several good measures fell by the wayside in the din and chaos of the final Parliament session. Yet, the undemocratic ordinance route is not a proper substitute for sound legislative management to which both the government and the Opposition have to contribute. With the Opposition not ready to keep Parliament in session indefinitely, the Houses adjourned sine die on February 21 and the session was prorogued a week later. With the country in election mode, issuing ordinances with the sole purpose of enacting laws that Mr. Gandhi was keen on would have been seen as politically partisan and constitutionally improper. The power to promulgate ordinances should be used sparingly and only when the urgency is manifestly clear and when there is a real possibility of the legislature reconvening in time to provide the requisite approval. The composition of the next Lok Sabha as well as the level of support for any given bill are likely to be vastly different. The set of anti-graft measures contemplated, no doubt constitutes a serious and organised effort to combat corruption. And none can find fault with Mr. Gandhi for bestowing attention on it. Yet, by repeatedly hinting in various forums that the government was considering ordinances to introduce these laws ahead of the elections, he gave the impression of pursuing an agenda aimed at bolstering his image as a crusader against corruption. Predictably, some Congress leaders are

now blaming the Opposition for the non-passage of these Bills when Parliament was in session. Such criticism fails to take into account the governments own inability to come up with a credible legislative schedule earlier. The fact that an ordinance is now required to fine-tune the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act, and the controversy surrounding the selection of the first Lokpal indicate that even Bills that Parliament found the time to consider and pass are not free of lacunae. Ordinances on issues that require a full discussion, then, are unlikely to be perfect pieces of legislation, and are best avoided in the run-up to a general election.

Sign of the times

So many awards are handed out before the Oscars, with strong favourites emerging on the basis of those wins, that the Academy Awards ceremony has today become largely predictable. The same people who garner those earlier awards inevitably end up winning Oscars. Thus, Matthew McConaughey won Best Actor for Dallas Buyers Club, despite rumours that long-denied Leonardo DiCaprio would pose a threat with his work on The Wolf of Wall Street. Cate Blanchett was anointed Best Actress for Blue Jasmine, despite worries that her association with this Woody Allen film would prove too scandalous, after the fresh round of sexual abuse charges by Allens daughter. As widely predicted on the basis of his win at the Directors Guild of America, Alfonso Cuarn was declared Best Director for Gravity. And 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture, despite predictions of an upset by Gravity. There was no way a 3-D sci-fi spectacular was going to beat a noble-minded account of slavery in the antebellum South. But despite the lack of surprise, history was made. 12 Years a Slave was the first film made by a black to receive the Academys highest honour: Best Picture. It was fitting that one of the presenters was Sidney Poitier, Americas first black star. The first instance of the largely white Academy acknowledging the diversity in the nation was when Hattie McDaniel became the first black person to be nominated for an Oscar. (She went on to win, for Gone With the Wind.) And this year, Lupita Nyongo and John Ridley picked up two major awards for their work on 12 Years a Slave. Even the traditional address by the president of the Academy for Motion Picture Arts and Sciences upheld this trend, coming as it did from the first black woman to hold the position. And that wasnt all. It is a sign of how far the Academy Awards have come that its 86th edition was hosted by a lesbian. Ellen DeGeneres has hosted earlier, in 2007, but this year she made an explicit quip about her sexual orientation during her opening monologue. And one of the major contenders of the evening was Dallas Buyers Club, which features several gay characters and which won Best Supporting Actor for Jared Letos widely acclaimed work as a transgender AIDS patient. These are important signposts in spreading the message of tolerance because, unlike festivals like Cannes or Berlin that award artier films that are seen mostly by a niche audience of cinephiles, the Oscars recognise mainstream cinema, seen by millions worldwide. Despite (rightful) complaints that the Academy, along with Hollywood, should be doing a lot more to further the cause of the minorities, this years awards are at least a sign of how much better things are today.

Smoothening out cross-LoC trade

In January, trade across the Line of Control (LoC) came to a standstill after a truck driver from the Pakistan side of Kashmir was arrested on a charge of carrying 110 packets of brown sugar. About 48 trucks were stranded on the Indian side while 27 Indian trucks were held back, as Pakistan demanded that the driver be handed over so that the case could be investigated. It was argued that the driver could not be arrested given the terms of the trade and the fact that he enjoyed diplomatic immunity. Trade resumed over a month later. An extraordinary session of the Joint Working Group on Cross-LoC Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) on March 4 discussed the streamlining of standard operating procedures and introduction of scanners, and a suggestion that all stakeholders should be present at the loading and unloading points. The introduction of banking facilities would also help the trade, which is now conducted on barter basis. The bus service between the two sides of Kashmir had resumed on humanitarian grounds to avoid inconvenience to the people, even as the standoff continued. Cross-LoC trade, which began in 2008 through Salamabad in Uri and Chakan-da-Bagh in Poonch district with two trade facilitation centres, is an important CBM, and both India and Pakistan need to learn the lessons from this episode. After an initial standoff, both sides did show a willingness to resume trade, but it is important to work out fool-proof systems to avoid any more rounds of a blame game. In the past, trade across the LoC has witnessed interference from armies from both sides, and tensions between the two countries also had their impact. For the CBM to work, there is a need to ensure the smooth flow of goods and also create an atmosphere conducive to the building of trust. If trucks and people from either side are treated with suspicion, it defeats the very purpose of a confidence building measure. Scanning the goods and initiating a joint mechanism to check them at crossing points, as has been proposed during the meeting of the JWG, would help. It should not take over a month of protracted discussions to restore normalcy. A prompt system of redress needs to be put in place so that livelihoods and cross-LoC travel are not held up while the two countries dispute threadbare the details of standard operating procedures as in this case. Neither should it be the case that an offence, if established beyond reasonable doubt, goes unpunished. Any future steps will have to incorporate measures that would prevent such incidents and tackle them without any disruption of trade or bus services.

India in election mode

The numbers say it all. With about 81.45 crore people eligible to vote, India will witness a ninephase election over a 36-day span covering 9,30,000 polling stations that will press into service 18,78,306 electronic ballot units the largest and lengthiest democratic exercise in the world. The country added more than 10 crore voters since the last election five years ago, and significantly, those in the age group of 18 to 19 years will constitute 2.88 per cent of the total number of voters as against a mere 0.75 per cent in that age group in 2009. With security concerns in Jammu and Kashmir, the northeast and the Naxalite-affected areas adding to the problems of logistics, the Election Commission of India has done well to stick to a relatively tight schedule while taking into account school examination dates most of the polling stations

will be housed in school buildings and festival days. Stretching the election period beyond this would have been unfair to the voters and candidates, who will have to go through a gruelling campaign in the middle of another harsh Indian summer. Among the new features in this general election would be the introduction of the none of the above option in the electronic voting machines, and the adoption of a voter verifiable paper audit trail system in some constituencies. But the election to the 16th Lok Sabha will be remembered not for the logistic difficulties and the sheer size and magnitude of the exercise. After ten years of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, this election will see corruption and governance as major issues, along with livelihood and safety concerns. The Bharatiya Janata Party, by announcing Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, is seeking to turn this election into a vote for a strong, able government that does not waver in decision-making. Unmistakably, the UPA coalition, with many of the allies pulling in different directions, and some of the Ministers caught in corruption cases, has come to be seen as weak and ineffectual. But also tapping into the voter fatigue with the UPA would be the new entrant, the Aam Aadmi Party, with its focus on institutionalised responses to ending corruption and delivering services. However, Indian elections have been known to throw up surprises. While there are clear favourites, and some dark horses, including those presenting themselves as the third alternative, India is too varied and fragmented a country for psephologists to make predictions with any degree of accuracy. Elections are also to be held to the Legislative Assemblies of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim. The Assembly of the new State of Telangana following the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh will have to be formed after the constitution of the new House. There is a lot to campaign for in the coming weeks.

Elusive recovery
Growth data released by the Central Statistics Office last week point to a continuing economic slowdown and offer very little comfort to a government that is hoping to proclaim a recovery ahead of the elections. With no further data releases scheduled until May-end, the government will have to reckon with the fact that based on published figures it would be extremely difficult for the economy to clock a rate of even 5 per cent for the whole year. The economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the quarter ending December, which was slightly better than the average of 4.6 per cent clocked during the first half of the year (April-September 2013). For the seventh successive quarter, GDP growth has been below 5 per cent. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram in his recent budget speech expected economic growth during the second half of the year to be at least 5.2 per cent. That now seems a stupendous task given the slackness in the third quarter. The CSOs advance estimates for 2013-14 released earlier of 4.9 per cent growth certainly does not look to be an underestimate as some government officials have been claiming. It ought to be quite disconcerting that having witnessed annual growth rates above 9 per cent in a few years during its two terms the UPA will be facing elections with the economy stuck in a sub-5 per cent growth trajectory. A closer look at the third quarter data reveal some well-entrenched weaknesses in specific sectors. The investment scenario remains weak notwithstanding recent efforts by the government to fast-track certain large projects. There is an expected measure of uncertainty in decision-

making ahead of the elections. Both mining and manufacturing declined in the three-month period. They have been weak throughout this year. Policy logjam and environmental and judicial activism have impacted adversely on mining output and this has had major negative consequences for the current account of the balance of payments. The outlook for the near future is not bright. Eight core industries which have more than one-third weight in the Index of Industrial Production, an important lead indicator, grew by just 1.6 per cent in January compared with 2.1 per cent in December. Exports are growing but at a slower pace during the three months up to January. Agriculture has done reasonably well while services, driven mainly by one subsector, personal community and social services which is a proxy for government spending picked up in the October-December quarter. GDP growth along with retail inflation and inflation expectations will figure prominently in the general election. Barring an unexpected turnaround, the government would seem to be on a weak wicket.

Cold War redux

Russias de facto annexation of the Crimea which President Vladimir Putin says is a humanitarian intervention has exposed ugly motives all round. On February 22, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, panicking over public protests calling for early elections and a return to the 2004 Constitution, abandoned his violent crackdown on the protesters and fled the capital, Kiev. The national parliament voted to remove him from office and impeach him; Speaker Oleksander Turchynov took over as interim president, and the assembly decided to hold elections on May 25. Mr. Turchynov has since then made political appointments by decree, and some of his choices have extreme right-wing and anti-Semitic backgrounds. On March 1, Russian troops moved into the eastern province of Crimea, without facing any resistance; the Russian military had, in any case, retained their Sevastopol naval base and various airfields under an arrangement made after the Soviet Union was abolished in 1991; there are now 16,000 Russian troops in the region. The West could only watch as a candidate for EU and NATO membership faced what could end up as a Russian takeover, or partition, or possibly a new status on the front-line of a fresh Cold War. The western Ukrainian public were shocked by revelations of Mr. Yanukovychs kleptocracy, which funded an opulent mansion and a country estate with an artificial lake, a full-size replica galleon, and a zoo; their eastern compatriots, mainly ethnic Russians, seemed to be disturbed less by the arrival of Russian troops than by a new law from Kiev abolishing the official status of the Russian language in their area. Moreover, Mr. Yanukovych resurfaced in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and, according to a Russian diplomat, said he had asked Moscow for help; the U.S. reaction had already bordered on the surreal, with Secretary of State John Kerry, apparently forgetful of his own countrys conduct over Iraq, telling Russia not to invade a sovereign state on a trumped-up pretext. Washington also needs EU support for sanctions against Moscow, but many EU countries reject sanctions. Secondly, several western governments are implicated in the Ukrainian crisis; some of Mr. Yanukovychs assets are owned by British-registered companies. Thirdly, NATO has tried to implement detailed plans for former Soviet republics like Georgia and Ukraine to join it. Moscow sees that as highly provocative; furthermore, by acting through NATO, western governments are all but eliminating accountability to their own legislatures and

publics. While the legality of the Russian moves in the Crimea is at best uncertain, the West for its part needs to learn the lessons of the Cold War.

Abuse of sedition law

Cricket between India and Pakistan indeed incites great passion in both countries, and among the followers of the two teams patriotism often gets unduly mixed with the love for the game. However, for its sheer perversity and unreason, the action of the Meerut police in booking a group of students from Jammu and Kashmir on a charge of sedition beats all previous instances of the misuse of the penal provision. The ostensible crime committed by the students seems to be that they cheered for the Pakistan cricket team during a closely fought one-day match against India and celebrated Pakistans victory. The charge of sedition under Section 124A of the Indian Penal Code has been dropped, but only after the strong outrage evoked by this irrational act. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah appealed to his counterpart in Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav, and described the invocation of grave offences unacceptably harsh. The only small comfort is that no student has yet been named in the first information report even though the charges of promoting enmity between different groups, under Section 153-A of the IPC and causing mischief (Section 427), remain. The Swami Vivekanand Subharti University, a private institution in Meerut, says it sent back Kashmiri students from the hostel where the incident took place as a precautionary measure to prevent the incident from being given a communal colour. While the University authorities claim they had not lodged a complaint, the districts Senior Superintendent of Police says the police acted only on a complaint from its Registrar. The reckless invoking of the grave charge of sedition for minor expressions of views that may be contrary to conventional notions of patriotism is an unacceptable affront to Indias democracy. The Supreme Court has made it clear that it cannot be invoked unless there is actual incitement to violence and intention to cause disorder, and that merely using words that indicate disaffection against the government cannot be termed sedition. The police officers who included Section 124A in the FIR appear to have no understanding of this aspect of the law. Nor did they take into account the adverse effect such a measure would have on the psyche of students and others from Kashmir residing or working elsewhere in the country. It was only recently that the Jammu and Kashmir cricket team was subjected to a midnight search of hotel rooms on the eve of a Ranji Trophy match in Jammu. The Uttar Pradesh government should take quick steps to drop the case and bring back the Kashmiri students to the same campus and let them resume their studies. Otherwise, this will be another ugly episode that will intensify the alienation of Kashmiris from the Indian mainstream.

One election for two States

Andhra Pradesh goes to the polls as a united State, but the voters will in effect be electing two governments, one for Telangana and the other for the residual Andhra Pradesh. As the Assembly constituencies for Telangana have already been identified, there can be little confusion in the voters minds on this score. Indeed, the two regions are slated to vote on separate days: while the election to the Telangana region (119 Assembly constituencies) is to be held on April 30, the election to the rest of Andhra Pradesh, Seemandhra or the residual Andhra Pradesh State (175 constituencies), will be on May 7. Ideally, the bifurcation should have been completed before the election so that the process of dividing the legislature after its constitution could have been avoided. However, with Telangana slated to come into being as early as June 2, just a couple of weeks after the declaration of results, the division of the newly constituted House will have to be done immediately, and separate governments sworn in. The election is being held on the basis of the extent of Assembly constituencies as per the 2008 Delimitation Order. But more importantly, the total number of reserved (Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes) seats in the State remains the same (31 in Telangana, including 12 for STs and 36 in residual Andhra Pradesh, including seven for STs). Given the requirement of ensuring adequate representation in proportion to the population of SCs and STs in each of the State units, this might change in the future. With the bifurcation having taken up most of the political space in Andhra Pradesh, issues arising out of the creation of Telangana will dominate the election. In Telangana, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, which spearheaded the statehood agitation, and the Congress, which is seen as the prime facilitator of the bifurcation, will undoubtedly make gains, especially if they fight as an alliance. In the Seemandhra region, parties that had tried to stall the bifurcation, including the Telugu Desam Party and the YSR Congress, will probably gain at the expense of the Congress. Even livelihood concerns are being framed within the debate on the bifurcation. Agricultural issues are seen in terms of sharing of water resources between the two regions, and employment and investment opportunities are seen as being either enhanced or limited depending on perceptions of access to Hyderabad after the bifurcation. The Telangana and Seemandhra regions are therefore sure to vote in very different ways. While the TRS is confined to Telangana, members of other parties that are active in both the regions are divided in their loyalties and will have to be walking a tight rope in their campaign.
MAR 10

Accountability in focus
Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa will have much to worry about when the 25th session of the UN Human Rights Council takes up the report of the OHCHR on promoting reconciliation and accountability in Sri Lanka on March 26. Despite the fact that the 47-member Council has 14 new members, including some known friends of Sri Lanka, such as China, Cuba, the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, the draft resolution submitted by the United States is forceful as it incorporates several new aspects: it includes Human Rights in its title, elaborates upon the attacks on minorities, dwells on the importance of transitional justice and reparation policy, and asks the Sri Lankan government to broaden the scope of its national action plan based on its reconciliation commission, the LLRC. Though the draft resolution, Promoting reconciliation and accountability in Sri Lanka, stops short of using the phrase international

investigation into war crimes a fact that has disappointed the Tamil diaspora and pro-LTTE elements in Tamil Nadu Sri Lanka has no reason to feel let off the hook. The resolution welcomes the High Commissioners recommendations and conclusions on the need for an independent and credible international investigation, and asks the High Commissioner to assess the progress toward accountability and reconciliation, to monitor relevant national processes, and to investigate alleged violations and abuses of human rights and related crimes by both parties in Sri Lanka. In effect, this gives the High Commissioner many tools to carry out her work. These are new mandates, and move up from the oral update that was given in the last session. And, from encouraging Sri Lanka to cooperate with the High Commissioner, the draft resolution steps up the tone and calls upon Sri Lanka to do so. Thus boxed in, Mr. Rajapaksas meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Nay Pyi Taw on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit on March 4 gained significance. Dr. Singh, who has steadfastly refused to visit Sri Lanka since the 2008 SAARC summit while he has met his Pakistani counterpart more often once again brought up the most critical issue that affects the Tamils of Sri Lankas Northern Province: the Armys brazen occupation of vast areas of civilian land. Dr. Singh asked Mr.Rajapaksa to pare the Army presence in the North. No doubt, the mellow mood in the Sri Lankan ruling establishment comes from the realisation that slowly but steadily the UN Human Rights Council, and, by implication, the international community, is becoming tougher on the issue. In the long run, there is no escape from a credible investigation that establishes accountability. And the question of the political rights of Tamils remains to be addressed with a measure of seriousness and urgency.

A tragic mystery
Two days after the disappearance of a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777-200 aircraft, flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, even the debris has not been traced. It is suspected to have crashed into the South China Sea between Malaysia and Vietnam. Neither the fleet of ships and rescue vessels nor aircraft pressed into an emergency search operation has located any sign of wreckage at sea, except for an oil slick. The Malaysian authorities have taken the initiative to start an international investigation. With five of the 239 passengers and crew killed in the crash being Indians, the DGCA is also joining the probe. The one disturbing evidence on Day 1 of the investigation was that two of the passengers were travelling on fake, probably stolen, passports. But the authorities do not want to jump to the conclusion that it was an act of terrorism. The Boeing 777 has earned a reputation as a safe long-haul aircraft. After the 2013 Asiana Airlines crash, this is only the second tragedy involving this aircraft type in the nearly two decades it has been in operation. Malaysian Airlines will certainly want to get to the bottom of this tragedy in order to maintain its reputation for safety in a very competitive environment. Given the close cooperation in the Southeast Asian region, all the countries are pooling their resources to find the cause of the crash. The only premise the investigators have begun with is that the end was sudden and violent. There was no report of bad weather and the aircraft was cruising at about 35,000 feet above sea level. The pilots did not radio for help and there was no emergency bleep. The plane just

vanished from the radar hardly an hour after take-off. There is also the theory that it tried to turn back to Malaysia. Experts have offered several explanations. First on their list was structural failure in the fuselage, which could result in the splitting up of the body. The second was bad weather, of which there is no evidence. Was it an act of terror? And finally, could it have been the rare case of human failure or a suicidal streak? Until the debris is recovered, the investigation cannot proceed. Aviation experts are of the view that the size of the debris spread could provide a useful starting point for any serious investigation. That could give an indication whether the aircraft suffered an explosion, got split in the air, or just plunged into the sea and broke up. Once that is known, the investigators could proceed with a particular line of enquiry. Since there are no survivors, nothing can be verified as such. It is in the interests of all airlines, passengers and aircraft manufacturers to uncover the mystery behind this unfortunate tragedy and draw the lessons.

Nalanda is not about nostalgia

It is only appropriate that a government that is actively seeking overseas collaboration in the arena of higher education should be steadfast in its support for an inclusive and ambitious model of global partnership. The Union Cabinets approval of the amendments proposed by a Standing Committee on External Affairs should settle once and for all the question of the status of Nalanda University at Rajgir in Bihar as an international institution. As per the proposed amendments, the preamble to the 2010 Act would characterise Nalanda unambiguously as a non-state, non-profit, self-governing international institution. Such a stipulation should put an end to attempts to depict the modern avatar of the historic centre of learning as a central university, thus saving the government the embarrassment of having to clarify its position to other participant-countries in this unique project. Indeed, the Standing Committee has proposed the insertion of a clear reference in the relevant law to the 2013 intergovernmental memorandum of understanding that has entered into force. Significantly, the latter provides for the involvement of any country that subscribes to the objectives of Nalanda. Russia, the United States, Australia and New Zealand have already expressed their commitment at various levels. The transnational composition of the modern Nalanda was only to be expected. For the states of the second East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2007 saw the revival of this ancient seat of learning as being central to realising the concept of an Asian community and strengthening regional educational cooperation. A capacity to attract students and faculty from across geographical boundaries was one of the hallmarks of this great and ancient seat of learning. It would have therefore seemed rather odd for the architects of Nalandas new version appearing not keen to foster a cross-cultural and cosmopolitan spirit of intellectual and cultural exchange. In the context of the relatively backward State of Bihar, the creation of state-of-the-art infrastructure and improved overall connectivity would prove an immense boon. The Universitys Chancellor, the Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, has repeatedly emphasised his commitment to promoting the highest academic standards, as well as ensuring equity in the recruitment and admissions processes. These are worthy objectives that Indias public institutions generally, and those in the field of education in particular, must foster at every level. If indeed the 21st century is critical to the future of Asia, then Nalanda is potentially a great platform to create that future. It could prove no less a model for the promotion of international understanding.

A state of flux
The unfolding of multi-cornered contests for the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu and the lone seat in neighbouring Puducherry, both of which go to the polls on April 24, as opposed to well-marked two or three-way fights in earlier elections, is an indication of a likely churn in the States politics. With these 40 seats that may make a crucial difference in the governmentformation exercise in New Delhi, the uncertainty of outcomes that usually goes with such quadrangular or pentangular fights is bound to put Tamil Nadu on top of the pollsters radar screens in the coming days. As things stand today, the Jayalalithaa-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is in maximalist mode, staking claim for all the 40 seats, leading an independent front, after it dramatically bid goodbye to the main Left parties the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). When the leaders of the CPI and the CPI(M), A.B. Bardhan and Prakash Karat, set much store by an alliance with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu as part of a larger nationwide strategy to forge an alternative to both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party to fight both corruption and communalism, the sudden collapse in seat-sharing talks came as a blow to the third front idea. But the two veterans were quick to discount its fallout, declaring that the two Communist parties would jointly contest the election on a broad Left platform, even while squarely blaming the AIADMK for its unilateral decision that gave rise to another formation. At the other end of the spectrum, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam which quit the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance last year, made little headway in reworking power equations with a younger, Rahul Gandhi-driven Congress, more so after the DMKs recent general council meeting which decided against any alliance with either the Congress or the BJP. The Congress at the Central level made little effort to rebuild ties with its former ally, leaving State Congress leaders demoralised. The DMK chief, M. Karunanidhi, sewed up a separate alliance with smaller parties including two Dalit parties. The DMKs own list of 35 candidates, which featured the names of two controversial former Ministers, A. Raja and Dayanidhi Maran, was torn into by the patriarchs elder son, M.K. Alagiri. The Congress enters the fray without any allies. The Aam Aadmi Party has not made any visible ripples in this overcrowded political space. The BJP for the first time is set to lead another big front, with the Vijayakant-led DMDK, the PMK and the MDMK. The State seems to be in for a fascinating five-cornered contest.

Regulating stem cell therapy

A revised set of guidelines on stem cell research was recently released by the Indian Council of Medical Research and the Department of Biotechnology, seven years after an earlier one was issued. Despite claiming that the revision was necessitated by a need to reflect new scientific and clinical findings that have changed the landscape of stem cell research being undertaken in the country and its possible translation, there is a glaring omission that reflects a lack of application of the mind. The guidelines make it abundantly clear that any use of stem cells in

patients except to treat various haematological, immunological and metabolic disorders using haematopoietic stem cells should, by default, be considered as clinical trials. The exemption is on the grounds that the use of haematopoietic stem cells to treat the said disorders has been established as a standard of medical care. Of course, the use of bone marrow (containing haematopoietic stem cells) to treat diseases like leukaemia has been in vogue in India since the 1960s. But what has been overlooked in the new guidelines is that treating damaged corneas by limbal transplantation for limbal stem cell deficiency should also be considered as an established method of care; limbal stem cells are transplanted from the healthy eye to the damaged eye of the same patient to treat an affected cornea. No other alternative method is currently available to treat such cases. For the last few years, a handful of tertiary eye hospitals in India have been treating such cases using limbus stem cells; since 2001, one institute alone has treated nearly 1,000 patients. Though the use of limbus stem cells is not as old as haematopoietic stem cells, about 1,500 patients with corneal damage have been treated so far; there is also sufficient evidence to prove its safety. Hence, there is a compelling reason for the ICMR and the DBT to apply the same yardstick and correct the anomaly. Though belated, the decision to call all the untested therapies offered to gullible people as clinical trials is indeed commendable. This would end the rampant exploitation of patients by some doctors. Many untested and unproven stem cell treatments are being offered as a magic bullet for many types of diseases and conditions. Similarly, several untested techniques to separate, grow and expand specific stem cells are available in the country. Besides failing to produce the promised benefits, there is a real possibility of causing greater harm to patients when stem cells are manipulated in the laboratory. But with many clinics and hospitals already offering stem sell therapy for a wide variety of conditions, it remains to be seen how swiftly they can be regulated under the new guidelines.

Tripping on old mistakes

The killing of 15 Central and State police officers in Chhattisgarh on Tuesday is just the latest in the string of hideous losses Indias anti-Maoist counter-insurgency has suffered at regular intervals. India has, for the most part, accepted these as the inevitable costs of a war inflicted by insurgents whom Prime Minister Manmohan Singh once described as the most serious threat to the countrys internal security. The sacrifice, if that is what it is, appears to be paying off. The Maoist insurgency has been in steady decline since 2010. From a peak of 1,180 lives lost that year, the authoritative South Asia Terrorism Portal database records, fatalities fell to 421 in 2013. The slow choking of the Maoists is evident. Key leaders from Chhattisgarh and Odisha have left the party, and its efforts did nothing to stop a large turnout in the Assembly elections held in Chhattisgarh last year. The Maoists efforts to expand into small towns and cities has yielded little success. The fourth central committee meeting of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) issued a resolution admitting to the stark fact of declining public support, even in the partys heartland regions. Yet, the truth is that much of the loss of life the Indian forces have sustained in their war against Maoist insurgents were avoidable even inexcusable. The succession of tactical errors which enabled Tuesdays ambush is depressingly familiar: near-identical mistakes were made in

disaster after disaster, from the annihilation of an entire Central Reserve Police Force company in Chintalnar, to last years slaughter of Congress leaders. The ill-fated patrol, as The Hindu has revealed, headed blithely into an area where State and Central intelligence services had warned Maoists were preparing an ambush. It used vehicular transport, and traversed a fixed route repeatedly, both lethal mistakes in areas where ambushes using improvised explosive devices are common. Little effort seems to have been made to initiate regular offensive patrols along the routes being used by the CRPF and the police, a standard means of making ambushes more difficult. Just as worrying, Indias multi-million dollar fleet of surveillance drones, not for the first time, failed to pick up any signs of an attack that involved over 200 insurgents. These errors all point to the fact that, many years into a counter-insurgency campaign that has been billed as the countrys most important, deficits of training, technology and leadership remain endemic. As in the case of past attacks, New Delhi and Raipur have busied themselves criticising each other for the loss of lives. It is time for both to step forward and admit that they are accountable for mistakes made, and lay out a blueprint to make amends.

No room for complacency

Indias balance of payments (BOP) improved dramatically in the third quarter (OctoberDecember 2013) of the current financial year. In releasing the data a full three weeks before the scheduled date in end-March, the Reserve Bank of India has, though not for the first time, broken with convention to share the good news with the markets as soon as it could. The significant piece of news in the BOP data for the third quarter is the dramatic narrowing of the current account deficit (CAD) to $4.2 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) from $31.9 billion (6.5 per cent) in the same period last year. Even compared with the preceding quarter (July-September) when the CAD was $5.2 billion (1.2 per cent), the performance is impressive. Clearly, the positive trends in Indias BOP are getting entrenched and do not represent a one-off development. On a cumulative basis, during the nine months of 2013-14, the CAD at $31.1 billion (or 2.5 per cent) marks a big improvement over the corresponding period last year when it was $69.8 billion (or 5.2 per cent). The lower CAD was primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit as merchandise exports picked up and imports, especially of gold, moderated. There is no doubt at all that the rupee depreciation has helped in boosting exports they clocked 7.5 per cent growth in the third quarter. On the other hand, merchandise imports fell by 14.8 per cent as against an increase of 10.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2012-13. The decline was mainly due to a sharp fall in gold imports which added up to $3.1 billion as compared to $17.8 billion a year ago, All these helped in contracting the merchandise trade deficit by about 43 per cent to $33.2 billion. The vast improvement in the current account is at the centre of a smart recovery in Indias external account. The rupee has remained stable for a fairly long time and foreign investors with a higher risk appetite are sensing better opportunities in India. However, while due credit should be given to the government and the RBI, there is a need for continued vigilance. Lower non-bullion imports reflect the ongoing economic slowdown. The governments clampdown on gold imports

through tariffs and administrative measures might have paid off, but there is enough evidence that a part of the gold trade has moved underground with large-scale smuggling starting again. Two other areas of concern are that iron ore exports are still restricted while coal imports have increased dramatically, aggravating the trade deficit. These are structural problems, and as long as they exist the external economy will remain vulnerable. Any pick-up in growth would see a rise in imports, and export performance needs to remain robust.

Time-bound trials for legislators

By fixing a deadline of one year from the date of framing of charges for the completion of trial involving members of Parliament and Legislative Assemblies, the Supreme Court has once again intervened effectively to give some credibility to the idea of cleansing the polity of criminalisation. Last year, it gave a jolt to the political class by striking down a provision that protected sitting legislators from immediate disqualification on conviction. It has now sought to ensure that repeated adjournments and dilatory tactics do not indefinitely protect lawmakers from conviction and disqualification. The interim order on a petition by a voluntary organisation making the framing of charges as the point at which the clock begins to tick is based on a Law Commission recommendation that the filing of charge sheet could not be the appropriate stage for disqualification of candidates from contesting. The Court has asked trial courts to wrap up trials involving legislators within a year; and if they are unable to do so, they need to explain the delay to the Chief Justice of the High Court. When the Supreme Court held in 1979, and reiterated in 1986, that speedy trial is a fundamental right under Article 21 of the Constitution, what it had in mind was the plight of hundreds of poor prisoners languishing in jails across the country without being brought to trial for years. The languid criminal justice system, on the other hand, has worked to the advantage of members of the political class who occasionally find themselves facing prosecution on corruption and other charges. Many political leaders and functionaries have managed to prolong for years an inherently supine trial mechanism, enjoying in the meantime repeated electoral victories and comfortable tenures in the legislatures of the States and in Parliament. A significant number among the law-making community, including leaders of political parties, manage to get trial proceedings stayed by superior courts or postponed by means of interminable interlocutory petitions. The Criminal Procedure Code does not prescribe a time limit for winding up a trial, but Section 309 makes it clear that once examination of witnesses begins, it shall proceed on a day-to-day basis until all witnesses are examined. This provision is rarely adhered to for various reasons. It is no easy task for the lower judiciary as MPs and MLAs are influential litigants, engaging the services of a battery of advocates who spare no effort and leave no procedural aspect unquestioned before allowing the trial to commence. The latest order helps address this problem by empowering the trial court to refuse routine adjournments.

The wages of scientific fraud

With the Supreme Court of South Korea upholding its 2010 ruling, Hwang Woo Suk, the notorious stem cell researcher from the Seoul National University in South Korea, will serve a

suspended jail term of one-and-a-half years for embezzlement and violation of the countrys bioethics law that came into effect in January 2005. This brings to an end a sordid tale that shocked the scientific community across the world. Hwang shot into international fame for two landmark papers published in February 2004 and May 2005 in the journal Science. If the first one was for cloning 30 human embryos and for deriving a human embryonic stem-cell line from one of them, the second was for creating 11 human embryonic stem-cell lines from the skin cells of individual patients. But less than three months after the first paper was published, the past caught up with him and questions about unethical practices started cropping up. It soon became evident that Hwang had committed one of the biggest scientific frauds in recent times by indulging in all kinds of unethical measures. He did not resort to relatively lesser evils like plagiarism but instead settled for the bigger ones image manipulation, rampant data falsification and fabrication, gross misrepresentation of facts, purchasing eggs for research, and forcing junior members in the same lab to donate eggs. There were acts of outright fraud as well embezzlement of nearly $3 million and making applications for research funds based on fabricated data. Though South Korea did well by investigating the fraud and punishing him, it is surprising that a variety of unacceptable acts committed by him are by themselves not punishable. South Korea has to quickly correct the anomaly. Hwang epitomises and exemplifies the case of a brilliant researcher who allowed his moral compass to go completely haywire, all for instantaneous, though ephemeral, glory and fame. In the process, he self- destructed. The simple yet vital message that any scientific study carried out through unethical means is nothing but a castle built on sand got completely lost on him. The truth is that science places a high premium on ethical conduct and the scientific community is extremely intolerant of people indulging in unacceptable acts. With thousands of keen eyes scrutinising even the minutest details of most papers, the high-visibility ones in particular, and trying to replicate the results, the chances of cheats getting exposed in double-quick time are real. It pays to remember that there are no short-cuts, and that doing good science ethically brings lasting benefits.

An opportunity to mend ties

The dismissal of visa fraud charges against Indias former Deputy Consul-General in New York, Devyani Khobragade, does not mean she has been fully absolved of wrongdoing, but it does provide an opportunity for India and the United States to pursue the path of normalisation in their bilateral relations. The New York District Court did not go into the merits of the charges against her, but decided the matter on the technical ground that she enjoyed diplomatic immunity after she was accredited to Indias Permanent Mission to the United Nations. This immunity was acquired during the pendency of criminal proceedings for allegedly giving false information to procure a visa for her housekeeper and it was a status that India cloaked her with to avoid a felony trial. Indias refusal to waive her immunity led to the host country asking her to leave. A fresh indictment, however, is still possible. This means Ms. Khobragade will never be able to return to the U.S., unless she is prepared to face fresh prosecution. Indias guarded reaction welcoming the outcome but noting that the verdict is silent on the merits of the case as well as the legality of her unseemly arrest and intrusive body search indicates that it expects a little more from the United States. By saying the government hopes to see further progress in this

matter in a manner consistent with international norms and conventions, India is seeking a permanent closure of the case. A remark by a State Department spokesman that the U.S. administration is surprised by the court ruling is intriguing, as it knew all along that diplomatic immunity created a jurisdictional bar on her prosecution. The road ahead for both the countries lies in putting behind the frostiness created by the episode and restoring their high-level engagement. Both countries understand the need to restore trust and moderation in bilateral relations. The dismissal of her indictment paves the way for this, but there are issues that remain to be addressed. India has to strengthen the principle of reciprocity in dealings with other nations. It needs to devise a code of conduct under which its officials posted abroad will not violate domestic laws. It needs a policy on consular and diplomatic officials engaging domestic workers so that there is no room for suspicion of human trafficking. On a wider canvas, the country needs legislation to protect domestic workers from under-payment and exploitation. The U.S., on the other hand, will have to introspect on its overall approach: its failure to anticipate the fallout of the arrest, the manner of the arrest and its controversial decision to evacuate the family of the maid at the centre of the storm in an obviously preemptive move.

Nigerias northern challenge

Even for a country which has seen much violence by the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, the factions February 25 attack on sleeping schoolchildren in Buni Yadi, 70 km from Yobe state capital Damaturu, was shocking. The attackers set alight the administration block and then locked the pupils in before firebombing the hostels. Up to 59 children were killed; a teacher said they died either in the blaze or at the hands of the attackers, who shot them as they tried to climb out of the windows or caught them and cut their throats. All of Nigeria was stunned, and in Abuja the national parliament observed a minutes silence for the victims; Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal made an emotional speech, and the House suspended proceedings for the day. Boko Haram means western education is sinful in Hausa, and since the school murders, the federal government has closed five federal secondary schools in three northern states; the pupils have been offered alternatives. The violence continues, with at least 650 already killed this year; northeastern Nigeria is in a state of civil war. It is, however, far from clear whether the federal government has done all it can. The Nigerian military, consistently a large presence in African Union (AU) operations, has had little impact; locals accuse the army of serious abuses of power, including summary executions, and of delaying interventions when terrorists attack villages. Secondly, rampant corruption has severely weakened most public institutions; the Central Bank head, Lamido Sanusi, was suspended after accusing the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) of failing to account for $20 billion in oil revenues. Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for an audit of NNPCs accounts, but wider issues arise, as only a small proportion of Nigerias 170 million people have seen the benefits of a decade-long 7 per cent growth rate. Furthermore, the countrys northeastern regions have been badly neglected, and Boko Haram sees the Muslim majority there as being ripe for indoctrination. Yet Abuja seems not to be using all available resources, such as AU leverage; neighbouring Chad says Nigeria has not asked it for help over Boko Haram groups

apparently based there. Most tragically, the federal government is wasting genuine political capital; Nigerians have never voted on communal lines, and in 2011 the voters themselves ensured a peaceful general election. It is imperative that, despite all the problems, President Goodluck Jonathan and his government address northern Nigerians concerns and that means reducing the corruption that stops them benefiting from many of Nigerias undoubted advantages.

Friendless in Telangana
Often, the line separating pragmatism from opportunism is very thin. After promising to merge with the Congress if Telangana was brought into being, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) is now averse to even allying with the national party. In the changed political situation postbifurcation, the Congress needs the TRS more than the TRS needs the Congress. With opinion polls indicating that the TRS would do well even without an alliance with the Congress, the Telangana party resisted the pressure from the Congress, first for a merger and later for an alliance. Although TRS president K. Chandrasekhar Rao indicated that his party was willing to extend support if the Congress was able to get into a position to form a government after the election, this can be of little comfort to the national leadership of the Congress. Given its record, the TRS could just as easily switch support to the Bharatiya Janata Party, which too supported the creation of Telangana. For the TRS, an alliance with the Congress would mean surrendering too many seats prior to the election. While an alliance would surely enhance its winning chances, the party might actually end up with fewer seats given the large number of seats that it would have to allocate to the Congress as part of an electoral understanding. Parties that opposed the creation of Telangana are unlikely to fare well in the region, and the two major parties are indeed the TRS and the Congress. For the stronger of the two, the TRS, an alliance thus did not make much sense. While the Congress needed an alliance with the TRS, the party was obliged to drive a hard bargain. Andhra Pradesh was one of the States where the Congress did well in 2009, and the party could not have afforded to give up claims to seats it had won in the last election. After having been the stronger of the two parties until recently, the Congress was unable to adjust to a situation where the TRS was dictating the seat-sharing talks. An alliance would have been impossible without a climbdown, and the Congress leadership would have thought it better to test the electoral waters on the strength of its support for Telangana statehood than as a junior partner of the TRS. But, unfortunately for the Congress, its principal rival at the national level, the BJP, is enjoying greater success in finding allies. The BJP looks set for a tie-up with the Telugu Desam Party, which might do well in the Seemandhra region. Whether in the pre-election or post-election phase, the BJP seems better placed to draw in more allies. Andhra Pradesh was crucial to the Congress being able to form a government at the Centre in 2004 and 2009, but even before the notification of the 2014 elections, the party is already in a political mess in the State.

Good news, but some worries

In what is the most significant economic data release ahead of the national elections, the government announced on Friday that wholesale price-based inflation (WPI inflation) eased to a nine-month low of 4.48 per cent in February. At the same time last year it was 7.28 per cent, while in January 2014 it was 5.50 per cent. The new data closely follow the faster-than-expected moderation in retail inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI inflation), which fell for a third consecutive month to a 25-month low of 8.10 per cent in February. The decline in overall inflation is attributed to a sharp fall in food and fuel prices. Wholesale vegetable prices fell by 10 per cent from January. Welcome as the February inflation data are, they may not be sufficient to influence the Reserve Bank of Indias next credit policy announcement, due on April 1. This is because for policy purposes the RBI has shifted its focus from WPI to CPI inflation which, despite the recent decline, is still high. The changed emphasis is also in line with the recommendations of a high-level RBI panel which in January suggested consumer inflation to be the main monetary policy anchor. It also suggested moving to a retail inflation target of 4 per cent in three years with a 2 per cent band on either side. That, in turn, suggests that the RBI might at best hold the interest rates in its forthcoming review. Moreover, core WPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, went up to 3.15 per cent from 3 per cent in January. Elevated core inflation prompted a rate hike by the RBI in January. The fear is that any pick-up in growth or a cut in interest rates would fuel a price rise. Besides, seasonal declines in vegetable prices which are behind the fall might be reversed, stoking inflationary pressures again. Already unseasonal heavy rains and hailstorms in parts of Maharashtra and a few other important vegetable-growing States have damaged crops. For the government, fighting a grim electoral battle, the recent inflation data cannot bring much cheer. Inflationary expectations, which are based primarily on retail inflation, remain elevated. High retail inflation perversely affects the poor and is bound to have an impact on the ruling coalitions electoral prospects. Despite the decline in February, inflation remains a big worry for the government which has had very little to cheer from recent economic data. After receiving confirmation of a sub-5 per cent GDP growth for the current year, factory output figures for January are not at all encouraging. Persistently high inflation limits policy options to encourage growth, such as through a cut in interest rates.

The new Cold War

The March 16 referendum on whether the southeastern Ukrainian province of Crimea should unite with Russia or have greater autonomy within Ukraine has presented the United States and the European Union with their most severe political test in decades. On available figures, almost 97 per cent of those who voted favoured unification with Russia; the option of the status quo was not offered, and the Crimean government, headed by Sergey Aksyonov, promptly voted to approve the plan. In the Ukrainian capital Kiev, interim Prime Minister Oleksandr Turchynov rejected the referendum as unconstitutional, but he was powerless to prevent it. The proximate cause of the referendum was the then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovychs unannounced departure from office on February 22, following weeks of public protests and a violent government crackdown over revelations of his corruption and his abrogation of an association agreement with the EU, which may well have led to Ukraines joining the EU in due course. In response, Russia, which had offered Kiev a 15-billion aid package and retains a naval base at

Sevastopol in Crimea, sent troops into the 58 per cent ethnic-Russian province, where Mr. Aksyonov had already been voted into the regional prime ministership while armed guards kept all but his own party out of the Assembly building in Simferopol. Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Mr. Yanukovych the victim of a West-inspired coup dtat, but the issues are much wider. The EU deal would have involved Ukraine in IMF restructuring and much closer cooperation with NATO-dominated EU defence institutions. Moscow saw this as a threat, especially following the emergence of evidence that U.S. troops had helped prime Georgian weapons in the latters 2008 attempt to seize South Ossetia; Russian governments also recall the unilateral U.S. recognition of Kosovo in 2008, and Mr. Putin was incensed when plans emerged for Ukraine to join NATO. Moreover, ethnic Russians in Crimea were not consulted over then Soviet President Nikita Khruschevs decision to hand over the province to Ukraine in 1954. Tensions within Ukraine were further exacerbated by Mr. Turchynovs appointment of several far-right politicians to senior ministerial posts in Kiev, and by a new law ending the official status of the Russian language in Crimea. The U.S. and the EU are considering sanctions, such as visa bans and asset freezes, against Russian officials; the G7 countries have declared the Crimea referendum illegal, but no Western bloc may be able to stop the dismemberment of Ukraine and prevent the start of a new Cold War.

The importance of Uttar Pradesh

With the Bharatiya Janata Party deciding to field its prime minister-in-waiting, Narendra Modi, from Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh has, unsurprisingly, become the focus of interest in this election. For long, it was an article of faith with pundits that the road to Delhi lay via U.P. The Congress under P.V. Narasimha Rao broke the myth; it won just five of 84 Lok Sabha seats from U.P. in the 1991 general election but nonetheless went on to form a government at the Centre. And yet, the sheer size of U.P. meant that the major political parties would continue to place the State at the centre of their electoral calculations. For the BJP especially, U.P. has been a high-stakes State with its overall electoral fortunes tied to its seat tally from here. The party held sway over U.P. right through the heady Ram mandir phase, winning 50-plus seats from the State in the general elections of 1991, 1996 and 1998. The partys electoral graph soared in tandem with its performance in U.P, and in 1998 it formed a coalition government at the Centre on the back of an incredible tally of 57 seats from the State. The critical importance of U.P. in the BJPs electoral and government-formation calculations can be gauged from the fact that, in all, the BJP won only 181 seats in that election. The BJPs remarkable run ended in the 1999 general election, with the partys seat tally from U.P. plunging to a decadal low of 29. That year the BJP returned to power helped by its bandwagon of allies, but by 2004 its luck had run out. Over the past decade, the BJP has hit rock bottom in U.P., coinciding with the spectacular rise of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The coming of Mr. Modi has placed the BJP once again in top league, and indeed opinion polls uniformly suggest a U.P. seat tally for it in the region of 35 to 40 a remarkable potential upswing in fortunes for a party seemingly without a hope until recently. It helps Mr. Modi that he has arrived at a time of deep despair with the incumbent United Progressive Alliance government. The UPAs 10-year incumbency and the policy paralysis and corruption

witnessed during its second term appear to have combined to push Mr. Modi to the forefront in this election. However, no election is won till it is won. And Mr. Modi faces a new challenge in the form of the indefatigable Arvind Kejriwal. The Aam Aami Partys convener has already raised the pitch by relentlessly attacking the Gujarat Model. With his possible emergence as a candidate from Varanasi, the holy city is bound to witness a David versus Goliath battle. Mr. Modis entry, and its sheer size, have restored to Uttar Pradesh a pre-eminent position in this election.

Far from resolved

Environment Minister Veerappa Moilys decision to allow field trials of genetically modified food crops marks a major shift in official policy on a highly contentious issue. That he would make a departure from the stand adopted by his two immediate predecessors was clear from his replies to questions in Parliament: a week before the formal announcement, Mr. Moily told the Rajya Sabha that field trials were necessary to generate biosafety data, and a common affidavit covering various Ministries would be filed by the government in the Supreme Court, which is considering the issue of allowing trials. Governments the world over have been torn between passionate, unreasoning opposition from activists and the callous push and greed of seed companies. Since these modified plant species are of relatively recent origin, data on biosafety are still not accepted as conclusive or comprehensive. The question of their superiority over hybrids is also a matter of debate. From the farmers perspective, there is fear of commercial monopolies in agriculture wherever GM crops are linked to intellectual property rights or commercial contracts, restrictions on use and the prospect of litigation come into play. This is an important dimension in India, which has a large number of small farms. Moreover, the GM foods industry claims transgenic plant varieties are safe on the one hand, but fiercely opposes labelling of products as such. The UPA government has in its last days permitted field trials of GM food crops on the ground that there is no court injunction in force, but a transparent regulatory mechanism that is neither blindly obstructionist nor unduly permissive and which does not needlessly delay decisions needs to be put in place. The Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India Bill, 2013 will lapse with the dissolution of the Lok Sabha even as the report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science, Technology and Environment on the legislation is awaited. Now that Lok Sabha elections are coming up, a decision on the future of GM foods will rest with a new government. At least 18 different varieties of GM crops including rice, wheat, maize, sugarcane and vegetables are officially in the pipeline. The key questions that must be answered while considering grant of permission for their production is their impact on health and the environment; the farming community must also be given a hearing. Scientific assessments must be independent of the proponents of GM agriculture, notably commercial entities. What this underscores is the importance of instituting a regulatory mechanism before permission is granted for work outside laboratories. It is equally vital that in a country with a diverse agricultural heritage, traditional seed varieties are not wiped out by monoculture.

Issues of corporate governance

If you are a multinational company with a foreign subsidiary that contributes more to your bottomline than even your home business, general wisdom would be that you handle the subsidiary and its issues with care. Not so with Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC), which is now embroiled in a controversy over a plan to set up a car plant in Gujarat as a fully owned subsidiary when it already has Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, where it owns a little over half the equity. Marutis royalty payment to SMC last year was higher than the Japanese corporations net profit derived from its business in Japan, and Maruti is the market leader in the Indian car market. Yet, SMC came up with a proposal that is adverse to Marutis minority shareholders. Confronted by adverse reaction from the market and institutional and retail investors alike, the multinational has now watered down the proposal and also said it will seek the consent of the minority shareholders as envisaged under Section 188 of the new Companies Act. SMC has also clarified that the cost of the new plant will be funded by depreciation and by its equity contribution. Should the contract-manufacturing agreement between the two end, the plant will be transferred to Maruti at book value and not fair market value, as was first decided. So far, so good. The basic question, however, has not been answered, and that is: why does SMC want to go it alone when it has a 56.21 per cent subsidiary in Maruti Suzuki? The question becomes more relevant if you consider that Maruti has Rs.7,500 crore of free cash idling on its balance-sheet, earning about half of what the company earns as return on its capital employed. This is the point that some minority shareholders are still unhappy about, and the company has not answered the question. The issue is one of corporate governance especially because the creation of a wholly owned subsidiary when a partly owned one exists can lead to conflict of interest. It could also lead to tricky transfer pricing issues in transactions between the wholly owned subsidiary and the parent given that Maruti will be taking the cars produced by the new plant at cost. There is the fear among Marutis minority shareholders not entirely misplaced that in course of time the company will be reduced to a marketing unit selling cars produced by the wholly owned subsidiary. The role of institutional investors, including FIIs, will be critical to the fate of the resolution when it is put up for vote. Shareholder displeasure being justified, the Life Insurance Corporation of India, which is the single-largest shareholder after SMC with 6.93 per cent stake, should take the lead and vote down SMCs proposal for being unfair to minority shareholders.

Rumblings over constituencies

By every account, the projection of Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister has catapulted the Bharatiya Janata Party from nowhere to number one position in the coming general election. But try as it might, the BJP has not been able to paper over its own internal dissensions coinciding with the rising national profile of the Gujarat Chief Minister. Over the past year, Mr. Modi has incrementally asserted his authority within the BJP, bolstered by his popularity with the rank and file and the overt support he has got from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. The Gujarat Chief Ministers reputation as a unilateralist precedes him, and his promotion to prime ministerial candidate has reinforced the impression that he would have his way even at the cost of injuring the self-respect of party elders, even those who have made stellar contributions to its growth. The BJPs founder-leader, L.K. Advani, has been overruled time and again, and Sushma Swaraj, with an impressive record in Parliament, has not fared any better.

Mr. Modi was elevated to prime minister-in-waiting over the objections of Mr. Advani. The internal discomfiture has been especially evident during ticket allotment, with little deference shown to veterans. Ms. Swaraj has publicly objected to the party ticket going to tainted candidates, and Murli Manohar Joshi has barely concealed his annoyance at being summarily evicted from the Varanasi seat to make way for Mr. Modi. Admittedly, it is the prerogative of the prime ministerial nominee to contest from a place of his choice. It is also reasonable to expect that Mr. Modis candidature from the holy city would favourably impact the partys prospects in the Hindi belt. But Mr. Joshi appears to have been offended not so much by his having to vacate the Varanasi seat as by the manner in which the mission was accomplished. Mr. Advani has been refused a transfer to Bhopal on the grounds that he has won five consecutive elections from Gandhinagar in Gujarat. But if that was indeed the case, there was no reason for the partys Central Election Committee led by Mr. Modi to have deferred announcing his name until Mr. Advani, in frustration, asked for a change. It was evident that the former Deputy Prime Minister felt more secure about contesting from Bhopal which falls in the friendlier domain of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. In the event, it took an entire day of drama and much coaxing and cajoling by BJP president Rajnath Singh before Mr. Advani of his own accord agreed to stay back in Gandhinagar. As Mr. Modi forges ahead in the electoral race, he will do well to ensure that his own party is on board with him.

Cern at the helm

The leftist and former rebel leader Snchez Cern, of the Farabundo Mart National Liberation Front (FMLN), has won the presidency of El Salvador by no more than 6,364 votes, gaining 50.11 per cent of the March 9 poll. He defeated Norman Quijano of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), whose vote-share was 49.89 per cent. The new President, whose deputy will be Oscar Samuel Ortz, led the campaign by 18 per cent at one time, but the ARENA teams adoption of a sustained smear campaign against him saw the lead all but eliminated by election day. The losers repeatedly alleged fraud and even seemed to threaten a military coup; they then demanded that the result be annulled, but the electoral court ruled that there was insufficient evidence to support their claim that the election was rigged; international observers and the State Department in Washington have said the elections were free and fair. Mr. Cern will succeed his FMLN colleague Mauricio Funes on June 1 for a five-year term lasting until June 1, 2019; despite being hated by the countrys political right, he has committed himself to reconciliation and to governing on behalf of all Salvadorans. Yet, collaboration may be impossible after ARENAs vitriolic attacks on him. That could have serious consequences, because El Salvador is yet to recover from a terrible civil war which lasted from 1980 to 1992, during which the army, backed by the United States and the landed elite, tried to crush FMLN, who were supported by the majority of the population. The conflict claimed over 80,000 lives and left 12,000 missing, and an amnesty law has left survivors bitter. The Inter-America Court of Human Rights has, however, ruled the amnesty illegal, and imminent Salvadoran Supreme Court rulings may result in charges against former military officers as well as an investigation into the 1981 El Mozote massacre, when the army allegedly killed 800 civilians. The mistrust and suspicion which divide the country are nevertheless worsened by gang violence which accounts for nine murders a day on average. FMLNs unique

and wide programme of social measures includes preventive and rehabilitative justice, but everyday life is still dangerous and insecure. Mr. Cern will be further constrained by the current total ban on abortion, which the powerful Catholic Church adamantly backs in this conservative society. The fact remains, however, that FMLN has a renewed centre-left mandate like those that voters in other Latin American countries have approved; although the opposition ARENA has a narrow majority in the legislative assembly, Mr. Cern may now feel more confident in the runup to next years legislative assembly elections.

The message from speedy trials

If there is one message in the Mumbai Sessions Courts judgment in the Shakti Mills gang rape cases, it is that the pervasive cynicism about the countrys criminal justice system, especially in rendering justice to victims of sexual violence, may not always be justified. The verdict of Judge Shalini S. Phansalkar-Joshi, sentencing four convicts to life terms for the gang rape of a telephone operator in the abandoned mill compound eight months ago, is noteworthy for meting out speedy justice as well as for imposing the maximum punishment available in law under the recently amended and strengthened penal provisions. There was much shock and anger when a photo-journalist was sexually assaulted by a group of youngsters, including a juvenile, on August 22 last year. The fact that she went to the police immediately encouraged another woman, the telephone operator, to come forward and disclose that she too had been gang-raped some weeks earlier at the same spot. A key response of the government after the Delhi gang rape of December 2012 was to amend the penal provisions relating to sexual violence. The Shakti Mills episode provided an opportunity to the judiciary to make use of the provision for enhanced punishment. It is significant that the judge has sentenced the four convicts under Section 376D, which deals with gang rape, to the maximum punishment of imprisonment for the remainder of their natural life. The sentence in the second incident involving the photo-journalist has been deferred after the prosecutor, invoking Section 376E, which provides for the death penalty for repeat offenders, demanded capital punishment. Three of the convicts participated in both the crimes, but it is debatable whether there is any case for awarding death, when life-long incarceration, which comes with the possibility of repentance and introspection, can serve the ends of justice. There were moments in the last year or so when many believed that the national outcry since December 2012 may have been in vain, as sexual crimes continued to be reported, and no part of the country seemed safe for women. Yet, even if the larger malaise of sexual violence against women appears entrenched in society, it is of some comfort to know that there is no question of impunity. There is a fair degree of certitude now that timely complaints and disclosures would help the police to undertake a proper investigation, while public opinion and activism keep the issue alive so that the case is not derailed at the trial stage. As the Shakti Mills trials demonstrate, the way forward is in fostering trust in the system of criminal administration by efficient investigation and speedy trials.

Road to urban future

The grim future of cities played out in Paris recently. Smog wrapped the city and air pollution increased beyond safe limits. Pollutants, particularly particulate matter measuring less than 10 micrometre in diameter (PM) reached unsafe levels of 180 micrograms per cubic metre, against the WHOs permissible limit of 50 micrograms per cubic metre (24-hour mean). Though bad weather contributed to this high concentration, the principal cause, as is often the case, was increased fuel emission. The city authorities had to take drastic steps to reduce pollution since prolonged inhaling of particulate matter would cause respiratory diseases, lung cancer and cardiovascular ailments. They imposed restrictions on the use of cars, permitting vehicles with odd and even number plates to ply only on alternate dates and encouraging shared use of cars. People were allowed to use buses, Metro rail and other public transport, besides shared bicycles, free of charge during weekends. The reasoning was that restrictions and incentives would encourage commuters to shift to public transport, thus reducing pollution. Initial reports indicated that these measures worked, and congestion had come down by 60 per cent. Free use of public transport cost the city about $5.5 million a day, but considering the public-health interest it was a necessary investment. There is a lesson or two here for Indian cities. The Central Pollution Control Board has listed more than 70 cities that have violated ambient air quality standards. Places such as Delhi and Ludhiana have unacceptable levels of PM 198 and 259 micrograms per cubic metre respectively. Mitigation efforts thus far have been limited to improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. Enhancing emission norms is necessary, but equally critical is the need to increase the use of public transport. Delhi is a case in point. The Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority for the Delhi region, in a recent report, stated that all gains made by converting buses and three-wheelers to Compressed Natural Gas have been lost to a rapid increase in the number of private vehicles. The level of particulate matter has increased substantially over the years. Though various urban policies have stated that public transport is a priority, on the ground, investments have not matched intentions. The modal share of public transport has steadily declined in the large cities. It is only in recent years that State governments are trying to increase transport options by building metro rail networks. This alone may not deliver. Integrating city functions with transport plans and encouraging non-motorised transport such as cycling are also critical. The future of Indian cities is inextricably tied to the improvement of public transport.

Small swings, huge difference

Small swings usually make a big difference in Kerala. Among Indias most politically conscious States, Kerala is polarised between the Left Democratic Front led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the United Democratic Front led by the Congress, and ones loss is almost inevitably the others gain. Mistakes in candidate selection or campaign management at the level of constituencies could often make the difference between victory and defeat. Indeed, going by recent history, any result is possible in the 2014 Lok Sabha election: a landslide for the UDF or for the LDF, or a close finish. In 2004, the LDF swept the polls winning 18 of the 20 seats; five years later, the UDF won 16. But only a count of two seats separated the winner, the UDF, and the loser in the 2011 Assembly election. The swings in terms of vote percentages are not as dramatic as the big differences in the number of seats seen in some elections. In any case, these

are not indicative of any serious long-term shifts in voter preferences. As with many small States, the floating voters, who are also those most desirous of change, play a decisive role in Kerala. With coalition politics firmly entrenched here, the choice before the voters is limited. There are any number of community-based parties, but none of them can survive for long outside either of the two fronts. Thus, while there is a polarisation between the two fronts, the constituents of the two fronts are of varied hues and ideologies. Some communist stalwarts expelled from the CPI (M) for one reason or the other have been accommodated in the UDF; in the same manner, smaller parties such as the factions of the Kerala Congress, ideologically closer to the Congress, are often accommodated in the LDF. The latest switch is by the Revolutionary Socialist Party, a long-time constituent of the LDF in Kerala and the Left Front in West Bengal, which joined the UDF almost as soon as it walked out of the LDF. Since any accretion in vote percentage could mean a quantum jump in seats, the UDF was willing to take in constituents of the LDF, including parties such as the RSP, which used to be a strong critic of Congress politics. Smaller parties thus continue to make themselves relevant within the limited elbow room allowed by the LDF-UDF polarisation. While the rest of the country is focussed on the front-runner in this election, the Bharatiya Janata Party, Kerala is unlikely to give it much space. The BJP usually fares better when the Congress and the UDF do badly, but even so it is nowhere near opening its account from Kerala. The party managed more than 10 per cent of the votes in 2004, only to slide back to just over 6 per cent in 2009. Since the Assembly election held three years ago, the UDF seems to have widened the gap between itself and the LDF, but small swings in the voter mood are possible as always. And, in Kerala, the big picture is made up of little pieces.

Friction over drug patents

Differences over intellectual property rights (IPRs) have emerged as a strong undercurrent in Indias economic relations with the U.S. The attempt by the influential pharmaceutical lobby to stymie Indias efforts to ensure the supply of medicines at affordable rates without violating existing treaty commitments, requires a principled response from New Delhi. At the core of the issue is what Columbia University Professor Arvind Panagariya calls the hijacking of the economic policy dialogue between the U.S. and India by pharmaceutical lobbies in the U.S. Piqued by Indias decision to use the flexibilities that are available in the existing TRIPS (Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights) Agreement, big pharma in the U.S., along with other influential business groups, is using its considerable clout to pressure the U.S. Trade Representative into designating India as a priority foreign country in its 2014 Special 301 Report, due on April 30. That label is reserved for the worst offenders of IPRs, and as a followup the U.S. could impose trade sanctions such as withdrawing tariff preferences for Indian exports. In an election year, India will most likely retaliate through anti-dumping duties or tariff hikes on U.S. imports.

The genesis of this issue goes back to 1994 when at the Uruguay Round of trade talks India, while not being wholly successful in resisting U.S. attempts to have a 20-year product patent on medicines and chemicals, managed to incorporate certain flexibilities in the TRIPS agreement. However, since 2005 when India incorporated patent protection into domestic laws, it has used the flexibilities only twice. In March 2012, it issued a compulsory licence to an Indian firm for a cancer drug, whose patent-holder, the German multinational Bayer, had priced it well beyond the reach of a majority of Indian patients. Under another provision, countries have the option to deny a patent to a drug that involved only incremental innovation over an existing drug. In April 2013 the Supreme Court upheld the 2006 decision of the Indian patent office denying the Swiss multinational Novartis patent on a drug that involved only incremental innovation. Clearly, not just these two instances but the prospect of other countries emulating India has rattled big pharma. India, which has not violated the treaty obligations, can challenge any prospective action by the U.S. by taking it before the WTO, whose dispute settlement mechanism has a good record of impartiality. Developing countries as also a few developed ones expect India to act effectively to safeguard its domestic commitment to public health.

Gayoom comes back, in style

Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who ruled the Maldives with an iron hand for three decades before giving way to more democratic forces, is back. The party he founded, the Progressive Party of Maldives, has emerged as the single largest party in a surprisingly trouble-free parliamentary election in the Maldives on March 22. More important, the PPM and its allies have won a nearly two-thirds majority in the 85-member Peoples Majlis, the Maldives Parliament. The PPM on its own has 34 seats; the Jumhooree Party, run by a business tycoon, won 15 seats, and the Maldives Development Alliance managed five. The Maldivian Democratic Party, whose nominee, Mohamed Nasheed, was elected President in the first multi-party elections in 2008, lost its numbers in Parliament, winning just 24 seats. Islamists have got representation in the Majlis with the Aadalath Partys lone success. The elections were held even as the head and deputy of the countrys Elections Commission (EC) were removed by the Supreme Court. Ahead of the polls, there were widespread complaints of distribution of money and goods. With no firm law in place, and being virtually headless, the EC looked the other way, and went ahead with the polls. Transparency Maldives, which monitored the polls, said the process was well administered and transparent but that wider issues of money politics threaten the democratic process. This result leaves the PPM now at the helm in both the legislature and the executive, and with Gayoom-era judges heading the Supreme Court, democracy in the Maldives has come full circle. For Mr. Gayooms half-brother, Abdulla Yameen, who won the presidency in the 2013 elections, the victory means freedom to put his agenda into action. During his campaign, Mr. Yameen, an economist, had asserted that turning the country around would be his first task. Ever since February 2012, after Mr. Nasheed stepped down in controversial circumstances, the Maldives has slipped from one crisis to another. The economy has hit the lowest level in decades, and many multinationals insist on payment in U.S. dollars for any transaction. Mr. Yameen presides over a mammoth government: the number of Ministers in the Maldives is only marginally less than in Sri Lanka which has the largest number of Ministers in this region. Public confidence in institutions and government is at an all-time low. Also, though Mr. Yameen made his first

foreign visit to India, there is a discernible confidence gap between the two countries. India is critical to sustaining the Maldivian economy and Mr. Yameen is aware of this. In addition to managing relations with India, he needs to carry all sections with him and work to improve governance.

Seeking clarity on human rights

The human rights gauntlet that Amnesty International has thrown down will not be easy to pass over when Indias political parties seek the peoples mandate in the coming weeks. The 14-for2014 charter seeks concrete commitments from prime ministerial hopefuls in the elections to the 16th Lok Sabha on almost every rights violation that has shaken the citizens conscience. The legal prohibition of torture, abolition of the death penalty, decriminalisation of homosexuality, punishment for marital rape and a law for migrant labour, figure in the 16-item questionnaire, seeking a pointed yes or no answer from parties and prominent leaders. A categorical position on these deep moral questions will determine the depth and direction of Indian democracy. Election time is when prospective representatives should make their views known, and Amnestys questions are timely. The current prevarication on the question of capital punishment, under the so-called rarest of rare cases dictum, may not be tenable considering the extent to which the issue has of late acquired divisive political overtones, while the dimensions of ethics and justice have been rendered marginal to the entire debate. Similarly, the ball is clearly in Parliaments court subsequent to the Supreme Courts retrograde verdict on Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code. Interestingly, the Election Commission mentions transgender electors (under the head of others) who have registered for the coming elections. When organised political forces participate in the poll process, they affirm a commitment to the constitutional values of justice, freedom, equality and human dignity, reasons Amnesty. Indeed, the registration of political parties with the Election Commission is a statutory requirement under the Representation of the People Act, 1951. This law also stipulates that the respective party constitutions are in consonance with the principles of the Indian Constitution and the composition of the party structure reflects the democratic spirit. As a signatory to the 1994 Declaration of Free and Fair Elections of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, India regards periodic and genuine elections as a necessary and indispensable element of sustained efforts to protect the rights and interests of the governed. Election 2014 is surely the time for political parties to renew that pledge in their poll manifestos. The moral mileage they would gain thus would be worth a great deal more than they can either measure or imagine. For the sponsors of extremist left-wing violence and the far-right purveyors of ideologies of hate, there is a lesson in the Amnesty charter, namely, to engage in democratic dialogue with the political mainstream.

Decoding market exuberance

Even as the Indian stock markets have been setting new records, the conviction among investors, analysts and the people at large that the rally is driven almost entirely by political factors is growing by the day. Pre-election rallies have not been uncommon in India. Before every previous national election, the markets were buoyant. However, in a majority of the cases the

optimism did not last even for a short period after the elections. What distinguishes the latest rally from previous ones is the widespread belief that a business-friendly BJP-led government with Narendra Modi at the helm may take charge; that will be good for the economy and business. Investors, especially the foreign institutions, are riding on that conviction and pouring money into Indian equities, spurring what has come to be called the Modi rally. There are high hopes that unlike previous pre-election rallies, this one would endure as the new government will act decisively to revive investment. Amidst this euphoria, very few people question the premises behind such conclusions. There are many imponderables, but even if a government led by Mr. Narendra Modi is formed it might still be hobbled by coalition politics. Nor is it certain that even if the new government has the necessary political support, it will decide to undertake, and will be able to implement, those measures that the markets expect. Credit Suisse, one of the very few global researchers that has taken a contrarian view, points out that the Central government by itself cannot revive the investment cycle. Only about one-fourth of the infrastructure projects are bogged down due to the Centres inaction. The rest are constrained by overcapacity, balance-sheets or state governments. Irrespective of election results, the pre-election stock market rally is predicted to fizzle out quickly. A more sustained rally will depend on the economic fundamentals improving. At present, the economy is struggling with weak demand, high corporate debt, a near-collapse in private investment, and a massive bad loan problem for banks. Economic growth remains stuck at around 5 per cent. The impressive turnaround in the current account is due to severe curbs on gold imports, which cannot last indefinitely. Inflation remains high despite the recent fall. The rupee has been stable recently but the U.S. Federal Reserves actions need to be closely watched for their impact on the external economy. Inflation remains high and while that rules out interest rate cuts, the new government will be fiscally constrained to provide a stimulus. These and a few other factors make for a much more complex picture and raise questions on the assumptions behind the market rally.

An under-defined Constitution
The draft of a new Egyptian Constitution, which according to the national electoral commission was approved by 98 per cent of those who voted in the January 14-15 referendum, is more problematic than it seems to be at first sight. For the record, the turnout of 38.6 per cent, in a total electorate of 53 million, was higher than the 33 per cent in the referendum held by the elected and now overthrown President Mohamed Morsy. The head of the Supreme Electoral Commission,Nabil Salib, hailed the result as an unrivalled success with an unprecedented turnout, but the participation rate was lower than the 41.6 per cent recorded for a similar referendum after the uprising which removed the dictator Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. The draft gives the President up to two four-year terms, and grants the national Parliament powers to impeach the head of state. It also guarantees equality between men and women, and says the state will be bound by international human rights treaties which Egypt has ratified. Furthermore, it bans the closure of media bodies and replaces administrative court removals of programmes or individuals with criminal procedures, and in effect ends prison sentences for press and other public-expression offences. Significantly, artists, writers, and filmmakers will no longer be liable to lawsuits by individuals who find their work irksome.

While such measures have been welcomed, the draft leaves crucial areas under-defined. It gives absolute freedom of religion and bans political parties based on religion, race, gender or geography but the latter may serve to exclude the Freedom and Justice Party, which has close links to the banned Muslim Brotherhood. Secondly, the military will appoint the Defence Minister for the next eight years; that shows the reluctance of the military, which forms the current interim government, to relinquish control. Such nervousness is underlined by the wider context of the referendum; 160,000 soldiers and 200,000 police personnel were deployed during the vote, and turnout was far higher in northern than in southern Egypt, where the Brotherhoods support is the strongest. The new document even keeps Mr. Morsys clause giving the government legal powers regulating the right to strike; the trade unions have strongly criticised this. In addition, the overall current evidence is not encouraging. For example, on March 24 a court sentenced 529 Morsy supporters to death for killing a police officer in August 2013, after the coup which deposed Mr. Morsy, but 382 of the accused were tried in absentia, and the defence arguments were not heard. The verdicts will be appealed. In sum, the draft Constitution leaves far too much to executive and legislative discretion.

Mirroring the Assembly results

Last years Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan set the stage for the impending Lok Sabha polls in these two States: the Bharatiya Janata Partys third straight victory in M.P., even as it unseated the Congress in Rajasthan, pushing the latter to its lowest-ever tally of 21 in a House of 200, bodes ill for the Grand Old Party. The latters attempt to engineer a generational shift, by appointing 40-year-old Arun Yadav and 36-year-old Sachin Pilot as the chiefs of the Congress M.P. and Rajasthan units respectively, appears to have come too late and has met with marginal success. Reports, however, suggest that Mr. Arun Yadav is in slightly better fettle than Mr. Pilot. In the highly-factionalised M.P. unit, Mr. Yadav has succeeded in aligning himself with Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, a Gen Next leader who, in turn, has secured the support of Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath and party senior Suresh Pachauri, isolating party general secretary Digvijaya Singh and former Congress Legislature Party leader Ajay Singh. But in Rajasthan, Mr. Pilot is ploughing a lonely furrow, with former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and party general secretary C.P. Joshi providing little encouragement to his energetic efforts to pump life into a moribund State unit. The BJP story could not be more different: class and style may separate the plebeian Shivraj Singh Chauhan from the patrician Vasundhara Raje, the partys Chief Ministers in M.P. and Rajasthan, but both have leveraged their contrasting personalities to emerge above the fray. If Mr. Chauhan has taken 10 years to gain absolute control over M.P., sidelining all rivals within the party, Ms. Raje has effortlessly slid into her old role, despite being out of power for five years. Both, by all accounts, have had a major say in the selection of Lok Sabha candidates. Traditionally, the results of the Assembly polls in these two States have been reflected in the Lok Sabha polls, given their geographical proximity. There is nothing to suggest otherwise this time, and with a discernible Modi wave to boot, it looks unlikely that the Congress can repeat its 2009

tally of 12 Lok Sabha seats in M.P. and 20 in Rajasthan; with luck, it will get less than half, with even senior BJP leader Jaswant Singhs unhappiness unlikely to change the tide. If there is something to look out for in M.P. and Rajasthan, two States in which the Congress and the BJP are in direct contest, it is whether the Bahujan Samaj Party, which fared badly in the Assembly polls, recovers ground. For reports now suggest that the countrys newest political formation, the Aam Aadmi Party, that ate substantially into the BSP in Delhi, could be in the reckoning in a few seats in these States.

A disturbing G7 decision
The March 24 decision by seven major industrial countries (the G7) to suspend Russia from the informal grouping called the G8 is not surprising in view of Russias annexation of the Ukrainian province of Crimea. Specifically, the G7 announced in what it called the Hague Declaration made on the sidelines of the global Nuclear Security Summit that it would not attend the forthcoming G8 summit in Sochi and would instead meet as the G7 in Brussels; it has also threatened co-ordinated sectoral sanctions if Moscow continues to escalate this situation. Russia has been a G8 participant since 1998, under a general plan to strengthen East-West relations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had earlier shrugged off the possibility of expulsion, pointing out that as the G8 has no formal membership no country can be expelled from it; in addition, the Ukrainian embassy in the Netherlands has reported Mr. Lavrov as saying Russia had no intention of using military force in eastern and southern Ukraine, and that if the situation worsens, Ukrainian-Russian contacts will occur at the foreign ministry and defence ministry levels. The G7 decision is, however, open to exploitation. To start with, the G7 has apparently accepted the appointment of many Ukrainian ministers with neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic backgrounds. Secondly, NATO has asserted that Russia plans a Crimea-type move for the autonomous Moldovan territorial unit of Transnistria, where Russian is the official language and the most widely used one; Moscow rejected a 2006 poll there showing that 96 per cent of the population favoured joining Russia. NATO, needless to say, has often tried to justify its own existence since the Soviet Union collapsed; the Warsaw Treaty Organisation (the Warsaw Pact) had a 2004 dissolution date, but NATO has no such limit. Western militaries and arms manufacturers also stand to benefit from another Cold War. Former British Chief of Staff Lord Dannatt has called for a new brigade of 3,000 troops to be sent to Germany, while current plans are to remove all 20,000 such troops from that deployment, which dates from 1945. Given that European Union countries buy Russian oil and natural gas for hard currency, anti-Russian sanctions mean that western oil corporations will welcome British Prime Minister David Camerons immediate call for more fracking, which is a highly controversial activity in his country. Financial bodies, nevertheless, may not like sanctions; Visa and MasterCard have resumed services to customers of Russias SMP Bank. The G7 move, in sum, is less principled than it might look, and western legislatures must scrutinise their respective executives closely over their handling of the Ukraine crisis.

Judged by deeds, not words

Election manifestos of political parties tend to promise all things to all people. Promises cost nothing, and most manifestos would typically have some takeaways for the rich, the middle class and the poor in varying proportions. Predictably, the Congress election manifesto makes no radical break from the past. The aam aadmi is not mentioned specifically, presumably because the term was hijacked by the Aam Aadmi Party, but she is very much present in the manifesto. The aam aadmi comprises the worlds of both the middle class and the poor, and the Congress manifesto with promises of creating 10 crore jobs, providing a job quota for the economically weaker sections without affecting the existing caste-based reservation, and establishing rights to health, housing, pension and social security, seeks to coalesce the two worlds. The effort, the manifesto clearly states, is to lift the bottom two-thirds of the population the skilled hands that build India into the middle class by ensuring economic security and minimum standards of living. This is part of the rights-based approach to development that the United Progressive Alliance governments adopted through legislation on the rights to information, education, and food in the last ten years. Of course, there is no mention of how these schemes would find their funding, but then, a manifesto is not a budget, and election promises are not generally taken as more than statements of intent. If the poor and the middle class were wooed with a rights-based welfare agenda, the corporate houses and the managerial class could take comfort from the manifestos stress on a high growth trajectory; investment in power, transport and other development infrastructure of one trillion dollars over one decade; and avoidance of retroactive taxation, which was seen as deterring foreign investment. But if the Congress were to be judged by its manifesto alone, it would have no problem at all. Unlike the principal Opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the energetic new party, the AAP, the Congress would be judged by its performance in government in the last decade, and not by the promises it holds out. The partys record is enough to take the shine off many of the promises listed in the manifesto. Some of the promises made in previous manifestos that remain unfulfilled have found mention again. The promise of affirmative action for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in the private sector thus rings hollow. A party that was at the head of the government for the last 10 years should have fought the election on achievements, not promises. Words cannot always make up for performance.

The MH 370 mystery

The sighting of objects that could be debris from Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, about 2,500 km from Perth, brings partial closure to the mystery over the missing aircraft. The Boeing 777 disappeared on March 8 when it was headimg for Beijing from Kuala Lumpur with 239 people on board. The theories surrounding the flight vanishing from radars across South East Asia will be put to rest only when the black box or other evidence is recovered from the depths of the southern Indian Ocean where the plane is supposed to have plunged. Recovery of debris is difficult here. This part of the Ocean, about two miles deep in places, is home to the roaring forties where wind speeds routinely range between 30 and 40 mph, and witnesses some of the largest waves. As for the aircrafts disappearance, one hypothesis advanced is that the planes transponders, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, and radio failed more or less at the same time. But experts say it is highly improbable that the systems malfunctioned without any attempt being made to convey distress and that, at the same time, the

plane continued flying without being detected for hours after that. The other speculation is that the crew changed the course. This theory gains credibility because the plane made three course changes and two altitude changes. Changing course mid-way needs human intervention. Available evidence indicates a deliberate act on the part of the pilot or the co-pilot. A multinational team led by Australia, and with experts and resources from 26 countries, is working to get to the bottom of the issue. Usually, after every such disaster new regulations are put in place to ensure that safety, navigation and tracking technologies are foolproof, and that mistakes do not recur. The Boeing 777, which entered service in 1995, is the workhorse of many airlines across the world. It has an enviable safety record the only crash that resulted in a few fatalities has been that of an Asiana flight in San Francisco in 2013. The Malaysian disaster will end up focussing more on the people who operate the machines. Psychiatrists say a test will not reveal a persons intentions if he or she chooses not to answer queries honestly. In an era where safety cannot be taken for granted, it is vital for experts in security, technology, transportation and manufacturing to sit together and spell out concrete proposals to make air travel safer. Apart from delivering on technological solutions, experts may now have to factor in the airworthiness of commercial airline crew spread over, on an average, 52 aircraft worldwide every minute. The search for and the investigation of MH370 should provide some clues to what needs to be done to safeguard against both technical flaws and human subversion.

Judged by deeds, not words

Election manifestos of political parties tend to promise all things to all people. Promises cost nothing, and most manifestos would typically have some takeaways for the rich, the middle class and the poor in varying proportions. Predictably, the Congress election manifesto makes no radical break from the past. The aam aadmi is not mentioned specifically, presumably because the term was hijacked by the Aam Aadmi Party, but she is very much present in the manifesto. The aam aadmi comprises the worlds of both the middle class and the poor, and the Congress manifesto with promises of creating 10 crore jobs, providing a job quota for the economically weaker sections without affecting the existing caste-based reservation, and establishing rights to health, housing, pension and social security, seeks to coalesce the two worlds. The effort, the manifesto clearly states, is to lift the bottom two-thirds of the population the skilled hands that build India into the middle class by ensuring economic security and minimum standards of living. This is part of the rights-based approach to development that the United Progressive Alliance governments adopted through legislation on the rights to information, education, and food in the last ten years. Of course, there is no mention of how these schemes would find their funding, but then, a manifesto is not a budget, and election promises are not generally taken as more than statements of intent. If the poor and the middle class were wooed with a rights-based welfare agenda, the corporate houses and the managerial class could take comfort from the manifestos stress on a high growth trajectory; investment in power, transport and other development infrastructure of one trillion dollars over one decade; and avoidance of retroactive taxation, which was seen as deterring foreign investment. But if the Congress were to be judged by its manifesto alone, it would have

no problem at all. Unlike the principal Opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the energetic new party, the AAP, the Congress would be judged by its performance in government in the last decade, and not by the promises it holds out. The partys record is enough to take the shine off many of the promises listed in the manifesto. Some of the promises made in previous manifestos that remain unfulfilled have found mention again. The promise of affirmative action for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in the private sector thus rings hollow. A party that was at the head of the government for the last 10 years should have fought the election on achievements, not promises. Words cannot always make up for performance.