Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Presented by James Berry Senior Consultant Business Forecast Systems, Inc. jberry@forecastpro.com
Business Forecast Systems, Inc. 68 Leonard Street Belmont, MA 02478 USA (617) 484-5050 www.forecastpro.com
James Berry
Senior Consultant at Business Forecast Systems, Inc. (BFS).
www.forecastpro.com
Data
Forecasting Techniques
Adjusting the Forecast
Summary
Q&A
2012, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com
www.forecastpro.com
Demand Plan
The output of the S&OP process is a Consensus Business Plan. This is a guide for the next 6-18 months that will be updated on a periodic basis. This drives the Demand Plan which is used to plan production, sales, and supply.
www.forecastpro.com
Simple Plan
A single Demand Planner produces the Demand Plan. He may check in with Sales or Production for any special orders coming up.
www.forecastpro.com
Comprehensive Scenario
The Demand Plan is produced with collaborative input from managers from multiple functional divisions Production, Supply, Sales, Marketing, and Finance. Each group brings their own domain knowledge and a consensus forecast is produced through a series of collaborative meetings.
www.forecastpro.com
Comprehensive Scenario
Production Supply Sales & Marketing Finance
Demand Plan
Form Consensus
www.forecastpro.com
Data
www.forecastpro.com
What is the forecast going to be used for? Production plan, financial plan, etc.
What data will produce the most accurate forecast?
www.forecastpro.com
Forecasting Techniques
www.forecastpro.com
www.forecastpro.com
Sequential Review
Demand Planner The Demand Planner meets with each relevant department manager individually and discusses the forecast. They make any necessary changes. The important part is this is routine and the Demand Planner is in charge of making appropriate adjustments to the forecast.
Sales
Production
Supply
www.forecastpro.com
Team Review
Demand Plan
All team members meet together and discuss the forecast together. The team comes to a consensus and this becomes the agreed upon Demand Plan.
www.forecastpro.com
Collaboration
Regardless of which review method your company takes, it is important that any known events that can impact future demand are discussed, and included in the final Demand Plan. It is also important for someone to have ownership of the final forecast and Demand Plan.
www.forecastpro.com
Performance
It is also important to measure forecast performance over time. This way you can spot issues and try to correct for them during the review process. You can monitor: Forecast Accuracy Historical Outliers Exceptions Upcoming Orders
www.forecastpro.com
Conclusions
www.forecastpro.com
Conclusions
Demand Plans are driven by forecasting. In order to produce a good Demand Plan you need:
The right data
Routine baseline forecast generation using reliable software
Review of the forecasts to make sure the appropriate methods are used
A way to add business intelligence to the baseline forecast
www.forecastpro.com
www.forecastpro.com
Forecast Pro
Examples from todays Webinar used Forecast Pro. To learn more about Forecast Pro: Request a live WebEx demo for your team (submit your request as a question right now)
Visit www.forecastpro.com
Call us at 617-484-5050
www.forecastpro.com
Questions?
www.forecastpro.com
www.forecastpro.com