Predicting Performance

Predicting Performance

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Overview
Objectives and limitations performance predictions of future

Types of future performance predictions Data requirements performance for predicting future

Transitioning from history to prediction Case studies

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Objectives of Future Performance Predictions

Predict reservoir behavior Estimate performance in new reservoirs Optimize operating conditions Maximize economic gain

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Limitations of Future Performance Predictions

The major limitation of future performance predictions is the accuracy of the reservoir model. A good history match does not guarantee an accurate and representative performance prediction.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Limitations of Future Performance Predictions

This might occur if future performance predictions represent operating scenarios that are dramatically different from the historical operation of the field. Examples include Converting a depletion drive reservoir to waterflooding, pressure maintenance or enhanced recovery Converting an old, depleted reservoir to gas storage

In some cases, this problem arises because of a dramatic change in the displacement mechanism occurring in the reservoir. The new displacement process was not part of the original history match and, therefore, may not yield correct results. In waterflooding studies, for example, predicted water breakthrough times may not match the actual breakthrough times once the waterflood is implemented. In many cases, actual breakthrough occurs much sooner than predicted. This problem can be fixed only by further history matching that includes the production and pressure performance of the field during the waterflooding, pressure maintenance or enhanced recovery process.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Types of Future Performance Predictions

Common uses for future performance predictions Depletion studies Secondary or enhanced recovery studies Timing of facilities installation Timing of well workovers Timing of well conversions Infill drilling studies

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Other Applications of Performance Predictions

Laboratory studies (corefloods, smallscale core studies, relative permeability studies) Parametric studies Investigation of vertical (cross-sectional models) Pilot projects flow effects

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Data Requirements for Predicting Future Performance

Number and timing of new wells New well data Well, production facility and field operating constraints Economic limits Workover plan for existing wells Completion plan for new wells

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

Number and Timing of New Wells Based On

Availability of drilling rigs Time required to drill a well Budget considerations In some cases, new well locations can be selected automatically by simulator

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

10

New Well Data

Well location in the simulation grid Type of well (producer or injector) Well constant, denoted WC, (related to PI of well)

Peaceman has published a series of papers on representation of wells in reservoir simulation. His publications have focused on the calculation of the well constant, WC, which relates the well flowing bottomhole pressure to the pressure of the grid block.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

11

New Well Data

Skin factor must also be considered. Incorrect assumptions about skin factors for new wells could lead to unrealistic forecasts. Skin factor for new wells can be estimated using (1) knowledge of skin factors resulting from drilling and completion practices in the field of interest, or (2) measured skin factors in existing wells (possibly before and after cleanup or stimulation treatments). Another possibility is to perform a sensitivity analysis using a range of expected skin factors.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

12

Well (Existing and New) and Facilities Constraint Data

Minimum and maximum operating pressures at Compression facilities Separators Liquid processing facilities Maximum fluid cuts (GOR, WOR) and liquid rates, which may limit Lifting facilities at wells Gathering and processing facilities All constraints can apply to wells, production facilities and/or the entire field operation.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

13

Economic Limits
Economic limits determine the operating life of a project or well in a future performance prediction. Economic limits are often minimum production rates for oil and gas, for individual wells or the entire field. Producing gas-oil ratios and water-oil ratios can also be used.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

14

Economic Limits
Data requirements for determining economic limits Estimate of future pricing for oil and gas Fixed operating costs Monthly operating costs for wells Lifting costs Routine maintenance costs Workover/repair costs for wells Taxes and regulatory factors Operating cost and oil and gas price escalations

Data requirements are usually translated into a fixed cost per well per unit time. The per well cost can then be converted to a minimum economic oil or gas production rate.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

15

Economic Limits
Alternative approach - allow an economics model to determine when a project is uneconomic. Use overall production stream for entire project. Input fixed and per well operating cost into economics model. Limit use of economic limits in reservoir simulation.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

16

Workover/Completion Plan For Wells

Develop a plan for workovers of existing wells Skin damage removal Hydraulic fracturing Mechanical repairs Develop a plan for completion of new wells Stimulation Mechanical configuration

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

17

Transitioning From History to Predictions

Transitioning from history matching to performance predictions means wells are no longer controlled by known operating conditions, but rather by an estimated future operating scenario. Unless there is an immediate change in the operating conditions of a field after history matching, the well and field production rates and fluid cuts (overall production performance) should be similar to recent past history.

The first performance prediction is usually a base case. The base case might also be called a "do nothing" case, since well and field operations are not changed for this forecast. Other, more sophisticated performance predictions usually involve operational changes that take place some time in the future. Rarely do operational changes take place immediately after the end of history matching. This might be due to the time required to Drill new wells, Install new production and/or injection facilities, Upgrade existing production and/or injection facilities.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

18

Smooth Transitions From History to Predictions

The quality or smoothness of the transition is dependent on the quality of the history match. If a smooth transition is not seen, then it might be necessary to further refine the history match. Also a function of how future operating conditions are specified.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

19

Methods for a smooth transition from history matching to future performance: If wells were rate constrained at the end of history, then begin forecasting using the same rate constraints on wells. If the wells were producing at capacity (pressure constrained) at the end of history, then the wells should be pressure constrained at the start of performance predictions. As an alternative, use the average well rate or pressure from the last several days, weeks or months for future predictions.

Choosing a method for a smooth transition from history matching to future performance will also depend on whether the field is currently constrained by allowables or is operating at capacity.

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

20

Summary of Production Constraints For Forecast Cases

Parameter Minimum well flowing bottomhole pressure (FBHP) Minimum well oil rate Maximum completion water-oil ratio (WOR) Minimum field oil production rate Value 300 psia 50 STB/D 6 STB/STB 500 STB/D

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

21

Well Locations for Case Fore2a-New Wells and Recompletions

7 6 8 9 10 3 5 4

Block VI Block V

C OW

C OW

44 existing production wells

proposed production wells
46 wells with proposed re-completions 45

12 90 0

Legend

C OW

proposed water injection wells

47

true fault traces

48 fault traces in simulation model

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

22

Field Production Rates for Base (Fore1b) and New Wells and Recompletion (Fore2a) Forecast Cases
FORE Field Prod Rates
60 Obs Qo Obs Qw Obs Qg 300 his t33k:Field OIL Production Rate his t33k:Field W AT Produc tion Rate his t33k:Field GAS Production Rate fore2a:Field OIL Produc tion Rate fore2a:Field W AT Production Rate 250 fore2a:Field GAS Produc tion Rate fore1b:Field OIL Produc tion Rate fore1b:Field W AT Production Rate fore1b:Field GAS Produc tion Rate 200

50

40

Qo, Qw (MSTB/D )

30

150

20

100

10

50

0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0 2010

Tim e, years

NExT

Qg (MMC F/D )

December 2005

Predicting Performance

23

New Wells and Recompletions Increase Recoveries

Cum Oil, Cum W ater (M M STB)

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Obs Cum Oil Obs Cum Water Obs Cum Gas Hist33k:Field Oil Cum Hist33k:Field Water Hist33k:Field Gas Fore2a:Field Oil Cum Fore2a:Field Water Fore2a:Field Gas Fore1b:Field Oil Cum Fore1b:Field Water Fore1b:Field Gas Cum

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Time, years

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

24

New Wells and Recompletions Lower Reservoir Pressure

6000 5000 Pressure, psia 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1990 1995 2000 Time, years 2005 2010
Obs C3C4 MidPerf SI Obs C4 MidPerf SI Obs C5 MidPerf SI Obs C3C4 NoPerf Datum SI Obs C4 NoPerf Datum SI Obs C5 NoPerf Datum SI hist33k: Field Average Pressure fora2a: Field Average Presssure fore1b: Field Average Pressure

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

25

Water Saturation Maps (0.2 - 1.0 Scale) for Case Hist33k, Fore1b and Fore2a for Layer 1

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

26

Movable Oil Maps for Cases HIST33k, FORE1b and FORE2a for Layer 1

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

27

Summary of Forecast Simulation Cases

Summary of Forecast Simulation Cases
Case Name Ultimate Ultimate Ultimate Ultimate Oil Water Gas Oil Production Production Production Recovery (% of OOIP) (MMSTB) (MMSTB) (Bscf)
216 129 179 34.3

Base (Fore1b) New Wells and Recompletions (Fore2a)

250

167

227

39.7

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

28

Conclusions
There are several fault blocks in the VLE-196 field with significant volumes of bypassed oil. Oil recovery can be increased by 34 million STB (5.4% of the OOIP) by recompleting 5 existing wells and drilling 8 new wells

NExT

December 2005

Predicting Performance

29

Recommendations
Develop and calibrate an expanded model of the VLE-196 C-4/C-5 reservoirs, to better model communication with other reservoirs. This should include the B/C-2/C-3 reservoirs, areas across the VLE-400 fault to the west and block VI to the north.

NExT

December 2005