for the past 4 months ive been conducting a study on the value of the sports simulation website service

Accuscore.com as it pertains to the NBA. the original goal was to determine how often the simulation results match the actual outcome of the game. then further i wanted to determine if accuscores simulations could provide reliable data for wagering on the contests. i myself do not gamble, but was posed the question by a friend and thought it was an interesting hypothesis to pursue. my findings follow: Accuscore runs 10,000 simulations for every NBA game and arrives at a percentage that each team wins of the 10,000 simulations. for instance: if the Los Angeles Lakers play the San Antonio Spurs, Accuscore might determine that out of 10,000 simulations of the game, the Lakers won 72% of the time and the Spurs won 28% of the time. Accuscore also determines averages for players (for the game in question) in points, rebounds, and assists based on the 10,000 simulations of that particular game. These stats are not a part of the analysis here but are interesting as standalone predictions. What i discovered in the 501 game data set i compiled was that Accuscore picks the correct team 71% of the time. which means that the team that actually wins the game had won 51% or more of the Accuscore simulations, 71% of the time. Accuscore also tends to be slightly more accurate when favoring the home team, than the away team (73% to 65%, respectively). Further, the following can also be determined: when Accuscore turns up a 90% or higher number for a team it is correct 90% of the time. (translation: if Accuscore comes up with 90% or more of the 10,000 simulations ending in victory for a given team, that team wins in real life 90% of the time) when Accuscore results in 80%-89% for a given team, that team wins 91% of the time. when Accuscore results in 70%-79% for a given team, that team wins 72% of the time. when Accuscore results in 60%-69% for a given team, that team wins 69% of the time. when Accuscore results in 51%-59% for a given team, that team wins 55% of the time. the only exceptional stipulations to these numbers come when factoring which team is home or away. if Accuscore results in 80%-100% for the visiting team, 100% of the time that team wins (this only happened six times however). Also, in the 70%-79% range, Accuscore is correct 76% of the time when favoring the home team and is correct 67% of the time when favoring the away team. this is the only large difference in the numbers between home and away teams. otherwise, it seems to make very little difference who is home or who is away as to the precision of the Accuscore system in determining a win. Now on to the gambling...

side note: (for those of you familiar with gambling terminology, the Over is the slightly surer bet to take, as 53% of the time the point total is over the given Over/Under line.) the rest of this post will relate to the point spread used when betting on games. a negative spread (less than 0) means that the home team is favored by the given number of points (ie. -6 means the home team needs to win by more than six for the gambler to make dividends when betting on the home team; if the away team is within 5 points or less at the end of the game, or wins the game, the gambler loses if he picked the home team to beat the spread or cover). a positive spread (greater than 0) means that the away team is favored and would need to win by more than the spread in order to cover. so the idea here is that if Accuscore comes up with a 51% or greater number of the simulations resulting in victory for a given team, that team will cover the spread a certain percentage of the time. for example, if Accuscore showed that 58% of the time the Portland Trailblazers beat the Boston Celtics in its 10,000 simulations, and the spread was -3 (favoring the Celtics, the home team), as shown by the data below 56.67% of the time Portland will beat the spread. because when Accuscore favors a given team by 51% or greater and the spread is less than or equal to -2 but greater than -4 (in our case here it is -3) the success rate for that team to cover the spread is 56.67%. for those of you not algebra inclined, x is representative of the spread and something like -2 >= x > -4 means that the spread is between -2 and -4, but is not -4, yet could be 2. in layspeak, the spread is either -2, -2.5, -3, or -3.5 (because spreads only come in half point increments). and success rate refers to how often you might win if you bet on the team accuscore favors for the corresponding spread. here are the results of my tests:

SPREAD FAVORS HOME TEAM accuscore correct on spread 0 > x > -2 ----- 43.48% success rate accuscore correct on spread -2 >= x > -4 ----- 56.67% success rate accuscore correct on spread -4 >= x > -6 ----- 52.17% success rate accuscore correct on spread -6 >= x > -8 ----- 52.46% success rate accuscore correct on spread -8 >= x > -10 ----- 52.83% success rate accuscore correct on spread -10 >= x > -12 ----- 52.00% success rate accuscore correct on spread <= -12 ----- 52.50% success rate

SPREAD FAVORS AWAY TEAM

accuscore correct on spread 0 < x < 2 ----- 53.33% accuscore correct on spread 2 <= x < 4 ----- 57.14% accuscore correct on spread 4 <= x < 6 ----- 61.54% accuscore correct on spread 6 <= x < 8 ----- 45.00% accuscore correct on spread 8 <= x < 10 ----- 61.54% accuscore correct on spread 10 <= x < 12 ----- 40.00%

the only numbers that stand out here are when the spread is greater than or equal to 4 but less than 6 (4 <= x < 6) and when the spread is greater than or equal to 8 but less than 10 (8 <= x < 10). in both cases if Accuscore favors a team in its simulations by 51% or more, that team will cover the spread 61.5% of the time. take the bet. futher data can be drawn, such as how accurate Accuscore is as a tool for predicting who will cover for particular spread ranges depending on what percentage Accuscore predicted initially. example: if Accuscore picks a team by 84%, there is probably a greater likelihood that given team will cover the spread than a team that accuscore picks by 53%. the above data only account for if a team is 51% or greater in the Accuscore system for a given game. here are the more useful results:

SPREAD FAVORS HOME TEAM spread of 0 > x > -2 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A (no data available) accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- N/A (no data available) accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- N/A (no data available) accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 50.00% success rate accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 40.00% success rate spread of -2 >= x > -4 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 50.00% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 53.85% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 60.00% spread of -4 >= x > -6 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 100.00% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 45.83% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 54.55%

accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 52.38% spread of -6 >= x > -8 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 33.33% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 61.29% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 50.00% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 0.00% spread of -8 >= x > -10 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 45.45% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 54.17% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 71.43% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- N/A spread of -10 >= x > -12 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 50.00% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 60.00% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 100.00% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ----0.00% spread of <= -12 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- 42.11% accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 68.42% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 0.00% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- N/A

SPREAD FAVORS AWAY TEAM spread of 0 < x < 2 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 44.44% accuscure correct at 51%-59% ---- 57.14% spread of 2 <= x < 4 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 73.33% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 48.15%

spread of 4 <= x < 6 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 66.67% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 52.17% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 85.71% spread of 6 <= x < 8 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 100.00% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 50.00% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 25.00% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- 40.00% spread of 8 <= x < 10 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 50.00% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 70.00% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- 0.00% accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- N/A spread of 10 <= x < 12 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- N/A accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- 50.00% accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- 33.33% accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- N/A spread of >= 12 accuscore correct at 90%+ ---- 0.00% accuscore correct at 80%-89% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 70%-79% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 60%-69% ---- N/A accuscore correct at 51%-59% ---- N/A

some observations: it appears that as a gambler, when faced with a spread of less than or equal to -2 but greater than -4 (-2 >= x > -4), you are have better odds the less that accuscore favors a given team, as the success rate is higher (60%) when accuscore picks at 51%-59% than at 60%-69% (54% success rate), and even worse when accuscore picks at 70%79% (50% success rate).

betting on a spread of less than or equal to -6 but greater than -8 (-6 >= x > -8) when accuscore picks a team at 80%-89% is a bad idea (33% success rate), in fact you might want to bet against that team, but when at 70%-79% it is a good idea (61% success rate). when faced with a spread of -12 or less (x <= -12), a good bet is on a team accuscore favors in the 80%-89% range (68% success rate), a bad bet is on a team accuscore favors even more at 90%+ (42% success rate). bet on the team accuscore favors at 60%-69% when faced with a spread of greater than or equal to 4 but less than 6 (4 <= x < 6) (73% success rate). bet on the team accuscore favors at 70%-79% when the spread is greater than or equal to 8 but less than 10 (8 <= x < 10) (70% success rate). and be wary of the 100% success rate numbers above, because they are largely due to a small data set. not very many games are played where the spread greatly favors the home team and accuscore doesnt, for example. i probably could have produced more accurate numbers with a larger data set overall, but this is what i have to work with. i realize the playoffs are upon us and everything changes then, and that next season these numbers likely will not apply. in conclusion, if you can use this data: great. if you cant: great. either way it was a fun process for me and ive learned some things about the world of gambling and sports simulation. namely, there will always be risk; there is no such thing as a sure thing. if youd like a copy of the spreadsheet containing all the data and formulas i constructed for this particular study, respond in the comment section with your contact information and ill be sure to get it to you as soon as i can.