166 views

Uploaded by rifayx

thanks a lot for you...the author

- PTSP WORKSHEET.docx
- Probability Basics
- Tutorial 1
- probability unit
- traduccion
- Jayce Fornstrom M9 Argument Essay Rough Draft.docx
- 6_Probability (1).ppt
- Short Question Ch07 Fsc Part1
- What Happened to Modern Physics
- Integral Iiiii
- Probability - Part A
- Assignment Unit1
- Quiz 2
- Probability Qns
- unit 5 probability
- hw2
- Sol Manual
- Notes on a Simple Example of EM
- Assignment
- probability basics

You are on page 1of 10

377391)

70

Deterministic: All data is known beforehand Once you start the system, you know exactly what is going to happen. Example. Predicting the amount of money in a bank account.

If you know the initial deposit, and the interest rate, then: You can determine the amount in the account after one year.

Probabilistic: Element of chance is involved You know the likelihood that something will happen, but you dont know when it will happen. Example. Roll a die until it comes up 5.

Know that in each roll, a 5 will come up with probability 1/6. Dont know exactly when, but we can predict well.

71

Basic Probability

Denition: An experiment is any process whose outcome is uncertain. Denition: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space, denoted X or S . Denition: Each outcome x X has a number between 0 and 1 that measures its likelihood of occurring. This is the probability of x , denoted p (x ). Example. Rolling a die is an experiment; the sample space is }. The individual probabilities are all p (i ) = . { Denition: An event E is something that happens (in other words, a subset of the sample space). Denition: Given E , the probability of the event (p (E )) is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes making up the event. Example. The roll of the die . . . [is 5] or [is odd] or [is prime] . . . , p (E2 ) = , p (E3 ) = . Example. p (E1 ) =

72

Determining Probabilities

Three methods for determining the probability of an occurrence: Relative frequency method: Repeat an experiment many occurrences times; assign as the probability the fraction # experiments run . Example. Hit a bulls-eye 17 times out of 100; set the probability of hitting a bulls-eye to be p (bulls-eye) = 0.17. Equal probability method: Assume all outcomes have 1 equal probability; assign as the probability # of possible outcomes . Example. Each side of a dodecahedral die is equally likely to 1 . appear; decide to set p (1) = 12 Subjective guess method: If neither method above applies, give it your best guess. Example. How likely is it that your friend will come to a party?

73

Independent Events

Denition: Two events are independent if the probabilities of occurrence do not depend on one another. Example. Roll a red die and a blue die. Event 1: blue die rolls a 1. Event 2: red die rolls a 6. These events are independent. Event 1: blue die rolls a 1. Event 2: blue die rolls a 6. These events are dependent. Example. Pick a card, any card! Shue a deck of 52 cards. Event 1: Pick a rst card. Event 2: Pick a second card. . These events are Example. You wake up and dont know what day it is. Event 1: Today is a weekday. Event 2: Today is cloudy. Event 3: Today is Modeling day. E1 vs. E2 E2 vs. E3 E1 vs. E3

74

Independent Events

When events E1 (in X1 ) and E2 (in X2 ) are independent events, p (E1 and E2 ) = p (E1 )p (E2 ). Example. What is the probability that today is a cloudy weekday?

When events E1 (in X1 ) and E2 (in X2 ) are independent events, p (E1 or E2 ) = 1 (1 P (E1 ))(1 P (E2 )) = P (E1 ) + P (E2 ) p (E1 )p (E2 ) Proof: Venn diagram / rectangle Example. What is the probability that you roll a blue 1 OR a red 6? This does not work with dependent events.

75

Decision Trees

Denition: A multistage experiment is one in which each stage is a simpler experiment. They can be represented using a tree diagram. Each branch of the tree represents one outcome x of that levels experiment, and is labeled by p (x ). Example. Flipping a biased coin twice. 2/3 HH 2/3 H HT 1/3 2/3 1/3 T 1/3 TH TT Example. Indiana and SF State U. play two soccer games. (p. 382) 3/4 2: Ind 3 8 1 1: Ind 2 1/4 2: SF 1 8

1 2

4 9 2 9 2 9 1 9

1/3 1: SF 2/3

2: Ind 2: SF

1 6 1 3

Independent or dependent?

Independent or dependent?

76

Even with the randomness, what do you expect to happen? Suppose that each outcome in a sample space has a number r (x ) attached to it. (examples: number of pips on a die, amount of money you win on a bet, inches of precipitation falling) This function r is called a random variable. Denition: The expected value or mean of a random variable is the sum of the numbers weighted by their probabilities. Mathematically, = E[X ] = p (x1 )r (x1 ) + p (x2 )r (x2 ) + + p (xn )r (xn ). Idea: With probability p (x1 ), there is a contribution of r (x1 ), etc. Example. How many heads would you expect on average when ipping a biased coin twice? Example. How many wins do you expect Indiana to have?

77

When two random variables are on two independent experiments, the expected value operation behaves nicely: E[X + Y ] = E[X ] + E[Y ] and E[XY ] = E[X ]E[Y ]. Example. We throw a red die and a blue die. What is the expected value of the sum of the dice and the product of the dice?

b+ r

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 4 5 6 7 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 9 10 11 12

r b

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 1 2 3 2 4 6 3 6 9 4 8 12 5 10 15 6 12 18

4 4 8 12 16 20 24

5 5 10 15 20 25 30

6 6 12 18 24 30 36

E[X + Y ] = E[XY ] =

Component Reliability

78

Component Reliability

Many systems consist of components pieced together. To determine how reliable the system is, determine how reliable each component is and apply probability rules. Denition: The reliability of a system is its probability of success. Example. Launch the space shuttle into space with a three-stage rocket. Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 In order for the rocket to launch, Let R1 = 90%, R2 = 95%, R3 = 96% be the reliabilities of Stages 13. p (system success) = p (S1 success and S2 success and S3 success)

Component Reliability

79

Component Reliability

Example. Communicating with the space shuttle. There are two independent methods in which earth can communicate with the space shuttle A microwave radio with reliability R1 = 0.95 An FM radio, with reliability R2 = 0.96. In order to be able to communicate with the shuttle, . p (system success) = p (MW radio success or FM radio success)

- PTSP WORKSHEET.docxUploaded bySrinivas Samal
- Probability BasicsUploaded bySubhas Chauhan
- Tutorial 1Uploaded byAshwin Kumar
- probability unitUploaded byapi-235922849
- traduccionUploaded byGustazx HiVi
- Jayce Fornstrom M9 Argument Essay Rough Draft.docxUploaded byJayce Fornstrom
- 6_Probability (1).pptUploaded bymahmoud fuqaha
- Short Question Ch07 Fsc Part1Uploaded bySikandar Khan
- What Happened to Modern PhysicsUploaded byRizky Wirawan Pratama
- Integral IiiiiUploaded bySanSebas EstaBravo
- Probability - Part AUploaded bypmagrawal
- Assignment Unit1Uploaded byAkhil Dayalu
- Quiz 2Uploaded byBibliophilioManiac
- Probability QnsUploaded byLokesh Kumar
- unit 5 probabilityUploaded byapi-328465459
- hw2Uploaded byTarik Adnan Moon
- Sol ManualUploaded bygazalive
- Notes on a Simple Example of EMUploaded byJun Wang
- AssignmentUploaded byfaranimohamed
- probability basicsUploaded byAmit Singh
- DeterminismUploaded byChris Walker
- lecture2 probablityUploaded byatifjaved91
- TutIdAPIUploaded byPeter Holc
- ch 4Uploaded byNazar Tymtsias
- Stats_ Probability RulesUploaded byhawkingking
- Revision Notes - Types of DeterminismUploaded byDanielWright
- quizUploaded byAsif Jutt
- 5 Branches of Philosophy.docUploaded byHiroshi Wakato
- rbrink syllabusUploaded byapi-249415295
- MontecarloUploaded bypradeep

- Tabel Distribusi F.pdfUploaded byFajar Sukmaharsa
- Chi Square TestUploaded byneelam_soni45
- Mtech Ec SignalprocessingUploaded byBiju Viswanathan
- Terence C. Mills - The Econometric of Modelling of Financial Time SeriesUploaded byBruno Turetto Rodrigues
- Multivariate Capability AnalysisUploaded byMohamed Hamdy
- Bibs Sampling Matlab Book CodeUploaded bydjonger
- Lecture12 Multiple Random Variables and IndependenceUploaded bysourav kumar ray
- NT TR 427_Guidelines for Development of NDE Acceptance Criteria_Nordtest Technical ReportUploaded byvrapciudorian
- Normal DistributionUploaded byGilagidkid
- L2 Probabilistic ReasoningUploaded bySahil Kothari
- mid termUploaded bysamuelteal
- statsnotecardUploaded byAnthony Samaha
- Maths micro teachingUploaded byAVR
- Expected Value, Variance and Covariance of Natural Powers of Representative Standard Random VariablesUploaded byHugo Hernández
- [Routledge Revivals] Donald Gillies - An Objective Theory of Probability (2010, Routledge)Uploaded bynop;e
- Bayes Lecture NotesUploaded byAsim Mazin
- Scan 1Uploaded byts2026
- s1 Normal DistributionUploaded byAnonymous GNWnQac
- Average Reward CriteriaUploaded bymahesh_manomanj
- Assignment 21 SolutionsUploaded byIvan Paredes
- EEE25 LQ01 Answer KeyUploaded byPao Yap
- Markov ChainsUploaded byHaydenChadwick
- Statistical Tables (Z, t, F, Chi-sq, Wilcoxon)Uploaded bySunit Mishra
- Tutorial 3Uploaded byAshwin Kumar
- phdprob3Uploaded byrheya6
- Pages From Lemh207Uploaded byAbhiman
- ast2e_ppt_7Uploaded byMichael Marchant
- Multiple Choice QuestionsUploaded byTafakhar
- Advanced Techniques for Simultaneous AVO Inversion (RockTrace, RockMod)Uploaded byFraztya Hebby
- Co VariancesUploaded byOmid Ap