Materials and Structures / Mat4riaux et Constructions, Vol.

36, December 2003, pp 693-701

Mathematical model for the prediction of cement compressive strength at the ages of 7 and 28 days within 24 hours
G. F. Kheder 1, A. M. A1 Gabban 2 and S. M. Abid 3
(1) University of Mustansiriyah, Baghdad P.O. BOX 14150, Iraq (2) National Center for Constructional Laboratories, Iraq (3) University ofDiyala, Iraq

ABSTRACT In this study 450 cement mortar cubes were cast from 50 different cement samples taken from 9 different cement factories, to develop a mathematical model that can predict Portland cement compressive strength at ages 7 and 28 days within 24 hours only. This is in order to save time and expense, that is lost in waiting for such a long period, and for quality control assurance for both produced cement (in cement factories), and concrete mixes in constructions. In addition, attention has been made on the right choice of variables involved in this model, especially the characteristics of the cement itself (phase composition and fineness). In addition, an attempt has been made to use other variables that are believed to affect compressive strength of Portland cement as the minor oxides MgO, SO3 and soundness. Other variables obtained from chemical analysis of the cement as LOI, IR, and LSF were also included in the model. The most important thing in this study is to get use of the concept of using early age strength to predict Portland cement strength at later ages for the first time. An attempt was made to combine both accelerated strength testing (as an early strength and UPV of cement mortar specimens), with the characteristics of the cement mentioned above, in predicting the compressive strength of cement. It was found that the accelerated strength yields good and high correlation with the compressive strength of cement, especially at the age of 28 days. In this work too, the importance of the ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) and mortar density were evident and the usefulness of using these variables in predicting the compressive strength of the cement was proved (because of fixing most of the factors affecting this property). Thus, it is possible to have good results that can be used in the prediction of compressive strength of cement. It was found that using each of the accelerated compressive strength f~c, UPV and density of the mortar cubes yielded high correlation with the compressive strength than any of the other variables. Different combinations of variables were introduced into the model, in order to choose the variables that can significantly predict the cement compressive strength. In this work, it was possible to obtain a model that can predict the cement strength with standard errors of only 1.887 and 1.904 MPa and coefficients of correlation of 0.903 and 0.928, for cement strengths at 7 and 28 days respectively.

RI~SUMI~
Dans eette ~tude, 450 cubes de mortier de ciment ont OtO coul& h partir de 50 ~chantillons diffOrents de ciment provenant de 9 cimenteries diffe'rentes, dans le but de d&elopper un modkle mathkmatique capable de prdvoir la r&istance h la compression du ciment Portland h des dges de 7 et 28 jours, seulement en l'espace de 24 heures. Le but est de gagner du temps et de l'argent, h cause de la tr& longue p~riode d'attente, et d'assurer un meilleur contrfle de qualit~ ~ la fois pour Ie ciment produit (dans les cimenteries), et pour les mOlanges de bOtons dans les constructions. En outre, il faut faire attention h bien choisir les variables impliqu&s dans ce module, notamment les caractOristiques du ciment lui-m&ne (composition de phase etfinesse). On a ~galement essay~ d'utiliser d'autres variables qui sont censOes affecter la r&istance h la compression du ciment Portland comme les oxydes mineurs MgO, S03 et la soliditY. D'autres variables obtenues de l'analyse chimique du ciment comme LOI,, IR et LSF ont aussi kt~ inclues dans le modble. La chose la plus importante dans cette recherche est de faire usage du concept de r&istance au jeunc dge pour pr&oir la r&istance du ciment Portl~d h des dges plus avanc& pour la premibrefois. On a essay~ de combiner le.s essais de caractbisation de la r&istance accOl&& (comme une r&istcowe au jeune dge et la vitesse de l'impulsion ultrasonore des &hantillons de mortiers de ciment), avec les caract&istiques cat ciment m e n t i o n ~ ci-dessus, afin de pr&,oir la r&istance h la compression du ciment. 1ls 'estr~vOld que cette r&istance accd&& o~ait une forte corrklation avec la r&istcoTce&la compression du ciment, surtout ~ 1~ge de 28jours. Dans ce travail Ogalement, l'importance de la vitesse de l'impulsion ultrasonore et la densit~ du mortier ~taient &identes et l'utilitk d'employer ces variables pour prdvoir la r&istance ?t la compression du ciment a ~tk prouv& (pour d~terminer la plupart des facteurs affectant cette propriOtO). Ainsi, il est possible d'obtenir de bons r&ultats qui peuvent ~tre utilis& pour pr&oir la r&istance h la compression du ciment. 1l a ~t~ trouv~ que la r&istance h la compression atoll&de f ~ , la vitesse de l'impulsion ultrasonore et la densitO des cubes de mortier offraient une plus forte corrOlation avec la r&istance h la compression que toute autre variable. Diff&entes combinaisons de variables ont ~t~ introduites dans le modble, afin de choisir les variables pouvant pr&oir de fagon significative la r~istance h la compression du ciment. 11a ~t~possible darts cette ~tude d'obtenir un module capable de prdvoir la r&istance ~ la compression du ciment avec des &artsOpe de seulement 1,887 et 1,904 MPa et des coefficients de variation de 0,903 et 0,928, pour des r&istances h 7 et 28 jours respectivement.

1359-5997/03 9 RILEM

693

Kheder, A1 Gabban, Abid 1. I N T R O D U C T I O N Cement, like any other construction materials has a number of specifications that have been placed all over the world. The object of these specifications has been to fix values of certain readily determined properties of cement, which are found to be satisfactory in practice, in order that inferior materials could be detected by their deviation from such standards [1]. The compliance of any produced cement with these specifications is the aim of both the producer and purchaser. The specifications, generally, include a statement of physical and chemical requirements. Among all, strength tests are prescribed by all specifications for cement, because mechanical strength of cement in the set and hardened condition is very important, and perhaps it is the most obviously required for structural use [2]. Specifications usually specify test method as well as age of test. Strength of cement, as specified by all the standards, is very important (from 1 to 28 days), because different cements are used for different purposes, and these cements differ in their early development of strength (early gain in strength). But, as early strength of Portland cement is important, strength at later ages is more important, because after all, it is this property which is relied upon in structural design of concrete as a construction material. The traditional 28 days standard test has been found to give general index of the overall quality (used in quality control process) and acceptance of concrete, and has served well for so many years. This age has already been introduced in most of the international standards, and some of which have adopted this age of test lately, for its importance, as a part of their specification (compulsory) after it was only optional, like the British and ASTM standards. early as possible, would be of satisfaction for all parties instead of waiting for the traditional 28 days results [3]. Rapid determination or prediction of the strength of cement could be attained by: -Suitable mathematical model with variables affecting the hydration and strength development of cement. - Accelerated strength testing results [4]. - Velocity of ultrasonic pulse and density of mortar or concrete. The attempts that have been made in the past used either one of the first or second approaches mentioned above. In this study, an attempt is made out, for the first time, to combine both approaches together with a non destructive testing, namely the ultrasonic pulse velocity (which is expected to be very effective because the materials and mix proportions are specified when testing the strength of the cement) in a suitable proposed model, capable of predicting strength of Portland cement at the age of 7 days as well as the age of 28 days. The variables used in the mathematical model in this work are: 1. Phase composition (the four main compounds of Portland cement C3S, C2S, C3A and C4AF). 2. Fineness of cement 3. Chemical analysis parameters (MgO, SO3, LOI, LSF, IR) and soundness. 4. 1-day accelerated strength of cement. 5. Density of accelerated strength mortar cubes. 6. The Ultra-sonic pulse velocity of accelerated strength mortar cubes. The basic concept of this model is that, it produces a reliable relationship between strength of cement and its own characteristics (depending on the above mentioned variables). The problem with such mathematical cement models is that they cannot be formed without internal contradictions, and, thus, with an adequate fit to experimental results [5]. In an attempt to eliminate these contradictions, the current proposed cement model has been introduced, with the fact that using strength at early ages to forecast strength at later ages increases the accuracy of the used equation.

2. R E S E A R C H S I G N I F I C A N C E
The presence of such model would possibly obtain the hard balance and equality between controlling the quality (quality control process) and economics (saving time and expense, i.e., this model could be used in cement factories in quality control process to provide a chance for the producer to make the necessary corrections during the process of cement production. Moreover, in construction to make the necessary adjustments on mix proportion used, to avoid situations where concrete does not reach the required design strength or by avoiding concrete that is unnecessarily strong.

4. E X P E R I M E N T A L

WORK

In this study, 50 different cements were tested. These cements were Ordinary Portland produced in nine different cement factories and taken randomly from monthly production of these factories; Table 1 shows the number of samples taken from each factory. Tables 2 and 3 respectively; show the limits of chemical

3. M O D E L I N G O F T H E C O M P R E S S I V E STRENGTH OF CEMENT
Under the currently quicker pace of construction, there was a great need for more production of cement with persisting on the conformability of the quality of the produced cement with the standards and specifications. Neither waiting 28 days for such a test would serve the rapidity of construction, nor neglecting it would serve the quality control process of the produced cement (in cement factories for example), or concrete in large construction sites. Moreover, for the advantage of both producer and purchaser or user, rapid and reliable prediction of the results of 28 days strength test as

Table 1 - Number of cement specimens taken from each factory No. of specimens 8 7 7 7 6 7 4 2 2 Factory F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9

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Materials and Structures / Mat6riaux et Constructions, Vol. 36, December 2003

and physical properties of the tested cements. The compliance of the cement was carried out according to the British Standard B.S 12:1989. The four main compounds in Portland cement C3S, C~S, C3A and C4AF were calculated for each cement specimen using Bogues equations. The results were also listed in Table 2 with the chemical properties.
4.1 C u r i n g

bath, with a curing temperature of 20~ for 7 and 28 days.

4.1.1 Normal curing

Normal curing in water, for the cement mortar cubes, was made (after demolding) by immersing these cubes in water

4.1.2 Accelerated curing In this study, the accelerated curing method that has been adopted was that of the British Standard B.S.1881 part 112:1983 method B [6]. The Cement mortar cubes were placed in a water bath with their molds for 20 hrs curing (water temperature 55~ The reasons for choosing this method were: -Suitability with working hours (i.e., it dose not need overtimes). - Producing normal hydration products compared with high temperature methods (Boiling at 100~ - It has no hazard effects like burning with boiling water or steam.

Table 2 - Limits of chemical properties for the tested cements Factory

C3S % 23.010-53.820 20.100-34.870

C2S %

C3A %

C4AF % 9.104-9.828 9.463-10.102

SOa % 1.94-2.53 1.92-2.50 2.47-2.91 2.2I-2.57 t .86-2.44

MgO % 2.5-3.51 2.46-4.82 2.10-4.55 2.59-4.01 2.44-3.13

LOI % 0.81-1.86 0.60-1.71 1.65-0.63 0.37-1.60 0.56-1.60

IR % 0.38-0.74 0.50-1.30 0.43-1.30 0.37-1.30 0.47-1.20 0.41-1.70 0.57-0.84 0.57-0.70 0.37-1.70

F1 F2 F3 I=4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9

19.030-50.180 7.030-11.579 34.068-50.774 9.495-12.805

20.295-37.213 33.853-48.910 19.535-37.303 31.606-53.380 17.657-34.177 37.621-50.900 27.551-41.113 28.440-36.665 31.094-34.216 32.553-33.509

8.721-12.687 9.494-10.680 9.071-15.236 9.490-14.642 7.668-8.642 8.489-9.129 8.033-9.007

30.684-43.091 8.644-11.969

1.74-2.40 1.45-4.411 0.80-1.25 1.17-2.74 1.90-2.50 1.17-2.91 4.49-4.58 4.34-4.48 1.45-4.82 0.88-1.02 1.04-1.43 0.37-1.86

32.893-43.281 10.811-11.292 9.649-10.430 34.651-37.408 35.849-36.418 10.526-12.105 9.950-10.250 10.697-10.911 9.737-9.828

Table 3 - Limits of physical properties for the cements

facc
Factory
N/ram 2 km/sec g/cm ~ cmZ/g % % N/mm 2 km/sec N/mm 2 km/sec

UPV ~=

DENSITY

S~

LSF

SOUND

1"7

UPV 7d

f2s

UFV ZSd

F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9

15.96-26.8 12.1-23.88 9-17.89 13,92-20.12 14.93-19_75 17.78-27.03 16.19-21.3 14.33-15.43 15.22-20.4

3.468-3.700 3.200-3.640 3.190-3.498 3,310-3,600 3,430-3,591 3.497-3.710 3.472-3.620 3.420-3.461 3,450-3.610

2.020-2.120 1.962-2.100 1.960-2.035 2.010-2.068 2.048-2.060 2,051-2.120 2.052-2.089 2.050-2.060 2.060-2.075

3300-3640 2830-3270 2760-3550 2890-3600 2820-3170 2920-3500 2970-3325 3010-3030 3090-3150

0.797-0.89 0.800-0,881 0.810-0.860 0,780-0.880 0,800-0856 0.830-0.880 0.830-0.871 0.840-0.860 0.850-0.850

0,021-0.180 24.270-36.490 3.660-3.950 31.600-43.100 0,028-0.685 22.110-38.450 3.620-4.000 122.000-45.320 0.012-0.286 21,930-27.760 3.620-3.740 22.120-33.980 0.020-0.500 18,650-32.750r3,530-3,850 31.800-40.200 0,048-0,240 19,750-27,220 13,590-3,730 33,000-36.110 0,070-0.260 25.000-38.000 3.670-4.000 32.290-44.050 0.018-0.626 26.310-29.930 3.690-3.790 32.870-40.980 0.140-0.342 25.100-26,890 3.670-3.700 27.780-29,980 0.371-0.400 25.720-30.110 3,680-3.810 28,210-36.980

3.700o4.160 3.630-4,200 3.630-3.910 3.840-4.040 3880-3,950 3.850-4,170 3.850-4.060 3.750-3,810 3,760-3.980

All factories 9,000-26.800 3,190-3,710

1.960-2,129

2760-3640

0,780-0.890

0~012-0.685

18,650-38.450

3,590-4,000 22.000-45,320 3,630-4.200

695

Kheder, A1 Gabban, Abid 4.2 Density The density of the accelerated strength mortar cubes (in g/cm3) was found by weighting these cubes and dividing the values (mass in grams) by the volume of these cubes (70.7 mm. 4.3 Ultra-sonic pulse v e l o c i t y This test was carried out according to the British Standard BS 1881: part 203:1986 [7], using the portable ultra-sonic non-destructive indicating tester (PUNDIT). All mortar cubes of accelerated curing; were tested after removal from the cooling water at the age of 24 hrs. The readings of the PUNDIT were recorded as the transit time in microseconds. The transducers used to read transit time were 150 kHz arranged to give direct transmission. The choice of 150kHz transducers was based on what have been stated in the BS 1881: part 203: 1986. 5. D I S C U S S I O N
e~

42 38 34 30 26 22: 18 14 10 12
o CD

Accelerated compressive strength, N/ram2

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

48

40 36

..

32

5.1 The effect of the accelerated compressive strength

~28 e~
o

24

It has been mentioned earlier that accelerated ~, 2O 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 testing of compressive strength of cement is based r on accelerating the gain and development in Accelerated cornpressive strength, N/mm 2 strength by accelerating the reactions involved in Fig. 1 - Relationship between accelerated compressive strength with 7 and 28 the hydration process, thus producing strength that days compressive strength. has reasonable correlation with strengths at later ages and could be used to predict these strengths. In this study, this concept has been used hydration, as the chemical reactions proceed, the hydration successfully and it was found that the accelerated 1 day will progress and there would be certainly a continuous compressive strength yields good correlation with formation of hydration products and thus, development in compressive strength of cement at the age of 7 and 28 days strength with reduction in porosity and consequently the (especially with 28 days compressive strength). density of the mass will be increased. The introduction of this variable was found to be It is said that the denser the concrete, the stronger it is important, because the elevated curing temperature (55~ and more durable (less permeable), thus less voids and aggregates the deleterious effects of free CaO, MgO and formation of cracks. This could be more understandable SO3, thus improves the accuracy of the strength predicted from Fig. 2, it is obvious that the density of cement mortars values. The relationships between the accelerated strength increases with the increase in its compressive strength and and normal 7 and 28 days strengths are plotted in Fig. 1. with age. Furthermore, it is very important to mention here that the It is also important to mention here, that the introduction correlation of the accelerated compressive strength with of density as a variable in the mathematical model to both strengths (7 and 28 days) was higher than the predict the cement strength is justified if we kept in mind correlation between any of the variables used in this study. that the efficiency of compaction of the cube specimen In fact the correlation coefficients were 0.79 and 0.90 for 7 would largely affect the compressive strength of cement. and 28 days strengths respectively. Thus, accuracy or reproducibility of the compressive This assures the possibility of using the accelerated strength tests can be checked and controlled here, as this strength as a variable in a mathematical model to predict have been one of the main problems that may lead to the compressive strength of cement, as an effective variable scattered results of the compression test of cement in and can serve for this purpose successfully. practice.

5.2 Effect of density

The expected relationship between density of the mortar cubes and the compressive strength is a positive one, i.e. increasing density increases compressive strength. The most possible explanation is the one concerned with

5.3 The ultrasonic pulse velocity

This is a long established, non-destructive test method, which determines the velocity of longitudinal (compressional) waves. This determination consists of measurement of the time taken by a pulse to travel a measured distance. The tests of

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Materials and Structures / Mat6riaux et Constructions, Vol. 36, December 2003

3O

22 .~ 18
14

61~96

1.98

2.00

2:.02 2.04 2.06" 2.08 Density, g/cm~ i

2'.10 2112

Therefore, by fixing all the previously mentioned factors, the only variable remaining will be the cement, and particularly its intrinsic hydration and binding capabilities, which obviously means that the reliability of this method will be improved, and it can detect the internal structure of the cast mortar cubes, thus giving good results that can evaluate the cement compressive strength, This can be seen clearly from Fig. 3, in which the UPVacc was plotted with the cement strength at lday accelerated, 7 and 28 days. From this figure, it can be seen that the UPV~cc correlated excellently with the cement compressive strength. 6. T H E M A T H E M A T I C A L MODEL REGRESSION

~401
36 .................... .........................

i o
......... 0

............................

32

~28 '~ 24

................................................................. 9 o

.....

......................................

............. .............................................................................. o~,............................. .................

O

All the regression methods are designed to fit functions that minimize the sum of the squares of the residuals between the data and the fimction. Such methods are termed least- squares regressions. Linear least-squares regression is used for cases where a dependent and independent variables are related to each other in a linear fashion [11]. The general form of such relationship is: Y= ao + a].X1 (1)

t-- 16

1.96

. 1.98

. . . . 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.06 Density, g/em s

2.08

2.10

2.12

4s

44
4o
t-

And when a dependent variable is a linear function of two or more independent variables, multiple linear regressions are utilized.
ii 8 O~

o o o

Y= ao + al.Xl+ a2.X2 +a3.X3 +... am Xm

(2)

9 ~ m o

32

This form of relationship was widely used by most of the researchers to relate strength of cement to its phase composition, i.e ft= a0+aIC3S+a2C2S+a3CsA+aaCaAF (3)

=. 28 24 20 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.06 Density, g/cm 3 2.08 2.10 2.12

Fig. 2 - Relationship between density of cement mortar and compressive strength at (a) ld accelerated (b) 7 d and (c) 28 d. ultrasonic pulse velocity have been used to evaluate concrete structures [8]. Several attempts have been made to correlate the compressive strength with the pulse velocity but this is subject to strict limitations. These limitations are [9, 10]: 1. Modulus of elasticity of the aggregate. 2. Aggregate content in the mix. 3. The type of the aggregate. 4. Mix proportions. 5. Moisture condition of the mortar or concrete. In this study, it was believed that the test of the ultrasonic pulse velocity could give excellent correlation with the compressive strength of cement. The reasons for this are: 1. The samples taken through this study have constant water/cement ratio and constant mix proportion. 2. Constant aggregate type (standard sand). 3. Curing under the same method, at same degree of temperature.

Many attempts have been made to introduce additional variables other than main compounds [12-15]. For situations where the multiple dependencies are nonlinear logarithmic transformation can also be applied to this type of regression [10]: Log(y) = log(ao)+al.log(X0+ a2.1og (X2) +a3.1og(X3)+ ... am.log (X m) (4) This equation can be transformed back to a form that predicts the dependent variable (Y) by taking its antilogarithm to yield an equation of the type: y : ao.Xlal.x2a2.x3 a3... Xmam

(5)

This equation is also called multivariable power equation. In engineering, material properties are often related to several independent variables, this functional dependency is best characterized by the equation above and is said to give more realistic results too. In this study, the multivariable power equation was found to be very suitable for predicting strength of Portland cement (as a dependent variable) from factors affecting this strength like; face, UPVace, density, phase composition (C3S , C2S, C3A, C4AF), fineness (S~), minor oxides (MgO, SO3), soundness, LOI, LSF and IR.

697

Kheder, AI Gabban, Abid

30
Z

a~

26
0 0 0 I,"

Table 4 - Correlation between 7- and 28day compressive strength with the variables used in the proposed model Variable

-0.41 *
-0.31 *

.~-

0~

18 14

"~ _~ <

10
6 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 Ultrasonic pulse velocity" for 1 d accelerated strength, km/s

38

io Co)
ii

0.01 -0.14 0.11 0.28* -0.31" 0.22 -0.039 -0.26 -0.29* 0.90* 0.73* 0.76*

-0.07 -0.33* -0.04 -0.15 0.36* 0.32* -0.16 0.48* -0.33* -0.42* -0.079 0.79* 0.67* 0.70*

MgO S03 LOI IR LSF S~ Soundness C3S C2S C3A C4AF P UPVacc

* Marked correlation is si ~nificant.

34 o

These fhctors where considered to be independent variables in the regression. The 30 power equation has been used to relate all these io variables to 7 and 28 days strength, until getting io 26 "i................... the final and best form of the mathematical 0 Oo [model. ................... Combinations of variables were also used in 22 such an alternative choices between the mathematical models, in the power equation to "c3 18 determine which of the variables to be used (or 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 t"group of them) could give significant Ultrasonic pulse velocity for I d accelerated strength, km/s improvement to the fit of the equation. These variables or combinations of variables are. ,~ 48 1. C3S/C2S, C3A/CaAF,C3 S+ m (,) o ..... C3A,C3S+C2S,C3A + CaAF Z 44 ~] 2. Initial setting time (IST) and final setting dll time (FST) 40 When analyzing the results using the model 36 that comprises combined variables, it was found a~ that there is no significant improvement in '-> 32 .............. ~ correlation coefficient of the proposed model. ......... Furthermore, the existing variables in the model e. 28 (without the new variables) yielded good and C, .......... reasonable results. Also, it is not proft~red to 24 11I ~O load the prediction model with large number of "~' 2O variables, because it is preferred to use a model (,q 3.2 3'.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 with lesser number of variables with higher Ultrasonic pulse velocity for 1 d accelerated strength, km/s possible accuracy to assure the rapid and easy use of the model. Fig. 3 - Relationship between ultrasonic pulse velocity at 1 day accelerated and (a) 1 day accelerated, (b) 7 days and (c) 28 days. Compressive strengths. Considering the main compounds, it was found that using the main compounds of cement individually (i.e. C3S, C2S, C3A, C4AF) yielded Table 4 shows the relationship between the compressive better results than using the combinations mentioned above strength at the age of 7 and 28 days with the selected (when combining every two compounds in a certain form, variables that are going to be used in the proposed model. for example, C3S/C2S...etc), thus the model with the This relationship is represented by the correlation coefficient variables used was: between each variable and each strength. From this table too, it can be seen that some the variables have significant ~= ao. faceal. UPVace a2. pa3 C3S a4. C2S a5 C3A a6 C4AFa7.Ss correlation with the predicted strength at one age and not at as. MgO ag. SO3al0. the other. The highest significant correlations were with the Unsoundness all. LSF ~12.IR a)3. LOpi4 (6) accelerated compressive strength followed by the ultrasonic pulse velocity; these significant correlations were for both Tables 5 and 6 give the regression coefficients of the strengths at 7 and 28 days. prediction model above for the prediction of 7 and 28 days !

I" I

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Materials and Structures / Mat6riaux et Constructions, Vol. 36, December 2003 coefficient of correlation (C.C) and standard error of estimate (S.E) corresponding to each set of variables used in each model. Coefficient Model 1 Model 2 Model3 Model4 Model 5 Model 6 In these tables several notes have 1.232 0.116 0.003 0.010 0.009 0.002 ao to be pointed out: 1. face,UPVacc and density were taken 1.151 1.134 0.539 0.453 0.532 C3S together. 1.054 1.029 0.413 0.358 0.246 C2S 2. The components of the phase -0.103 -0.029 0.024 composition and fineness were used -0.049 -0.023 C3A all together as they have been found to C4AF -0.053 -0.016 0.116 0.037 0.044 be interrelated and to affect strength 0.508 0.233 0.262 0.380 of cement, although at different levels. Ss 3. MgO, SO3 and unsoundness were 0.189 0.216 MgO all taken together as they are factors 0.039 0.045 S03 causing deleterious expansion i.e. have a negative effect on the Soundness -0.015 -0.019 compressive strength. -0.042 LOI 4. LOI, IR and LSF were taken as one group. 0.062 IR The most important thing to -1.028 LSF concentrate on, is the value of correlation coefficient and the 0.485 0.27059 0.340 F~c 0.3757 standard error to determine which UPV.~o 0.394 0.7795 1.478 1.0017 variable have significant improvement on the equation, and will result in Density 1.670 0.9397 -0.0596 0.817 accurately predicted strength. For 2.660 3.12295 2.948 2.2686 2.007 1.887 S.E example in the two tables below, the following points have been recorded: 0.795 0.702 0.740 0.8559 0.889 0.903 C.C a) The effect of the four main compounds on the compressive Table 6 - Regression coefficients for the 28 days c o m p r e s s i v e strength of cement at the age of 7days strength prediction models was more than their effect on the 28 Coefficient Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 days compressive strength. This could be clearer from the value of the ao 4.267 0.144 0.007 7.650 4.966 2.095 standard error for the equation used in C3S 0.867 0.862 0.0080 0.002 0.127 the prediction. This looks very reasonable, as the effect of these C2S 0.997 0.902 0.10223 0.089 0.042 compounds at early ages is more C3A -0.086 -0.047 - 0 . 0 3 9 5 -0.017 0.061 affected by their rate o f hydration, more than their effect at later ages CaAF -0.415 -0.379 - 0 . 1 9 7 5 -0.183 -0.156 (especially the silicates). Ss 0.371 -0.041 -0.0102 0.005 b) Effect of fineness (as expected) on the strength at 7days is more MgO 0.029 0.029 pronounced than that at the age of 0.04361 0.074 SO3 28days, also, it can be seen that the introduction of fineness in model (3) Soundness -0.014 -0.012 reduces (slightly) the effect of the LOI -0.028 silicates. This could be because fineness is a strong effective factor IR 0.0034 that contributes to strength, especially LSF -0.016 at early age as 7 days. c) Using the value of each of lday Face 0.671 0.664 0.694 0.654 accelerated, the ultrasonic pulse velocity UPVac~ -0.383 -0.309 -0.554 -0.194 and the density was found to give excellent fit for the data. These three Density 0.713 0.742 1.074 0.625 variables had a contribution on the S.E 2.169 4.143 4.031 2.041 1.977 1.904 correlation that exceeded that of the main cement compounds and fineness, C.C 0.907 0.593 0.622 0.918 0.923 0.929 especially at the age of 28 days. This can be seen clearly from the values of compressive strength respectively, as well as the value of the coefficients of correlations of model (1) and model (3). The
Table 5 - Regression coefficients for the 7-day c o m p r e s s i v e strength prediction m o d e l s

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Kheder, A1 Gabban, Abid coefficients of correlations for these equations "s 4o E were 0.795 versus 0.740 at 7 days, and 0.907 J O (a) versus 0.622 at 28 days respectively. This clearly z 36 shows the importance of the introduction of these factors in the regressions. g 32 d) Adding models (1) and (3) yielded significant > improvement in the value of correlation coefficient "~ 28 especially at the age of 7 days (the value of the standard error also reduced to about half of its E 24 ...... ~ " value). But it is important to note that introducing model (1) into model (3) i.e. combining these two R 20 ..... models together decreases the effect of the four / main compounds (the power of each of the four ~ 16 16 compounds and fineness in the model was 20 24 28 32 36 40 decreased). The reduction in the effect of the four Predicted 7-day compressive strength, N / m m 2 main compounds and fineness at the age of 28 days was more than that at the age of 7 days (the ~ 48 (b) d power of the fineness was turned from positive to -negative value), this is attributed to fact that the z 44 d r il effect of these factors (f~r density, UPVar on the ....i..............J l 28 days compressive strength was higher than ~ 40 their effect on the 7 days compressive strength, while the effect of the four main compounds and .~,,, 36 fineness was on the reverse. ~- 32 e) Introducing other variables such as MgO, ,, ~ ! o ............................ , , r a,)o SO3 and unsoundness was found to increase the ~ 28 value of the correlation coefficient and reduces the value of the standard error of the prediction ,='~ 24 equation. The same thing was observed when introducing LOI, IR and LSF. ,, 20 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 In the proposed model, a fact was proved, Predicted values o f 2 8 - d a y compressive strength, N/ram 2 this was the role of the variables affecting strength of cement is not additive (especially the Fig. 4 - Predicted versus observed compressive strength of cement: four main compounds), but there is an a) Observed versus predicted 7-day compressive strength of cement; b) Predicted versus observed 28-day compressive strength of cement. interaction between them, i.e., the introduction of one variable may enhance the effect of some variables and weaken the effect of other variables. These variables were divided into combinations, variables. Another important thing to note is the increase of which included the following variables: the coefficient of correlation with the decrease in the value * Accelerated compressive strength (face), of the standard error from model (1) until model (6). ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPVac~) and density. Fig. 4 show the predicted versus observed compressive * Chemical composition of main cement strengths of 7 and 28 days respectively, using Model (6) compounds and cement fineness. proposed by this study. In Fig. 4a, boundary limits of * MgO, SO3, and soundness. prediction for + 10% from line of equality were drawn. It * Insoluble residue (IR), loss on ignition (LOI), can be seen that 90% of the data used or obtained in this lime saturation factor (LSF). study were within 4- 10% limits of the prediction, while only 10% of the data were out of these limits. The total number of independent variables was (13). The In case of the 28 days compressive strength, it can be best correlation coefficients obtained were 0.903 and 0.929 seen from Figure 4b that only 6% of the data were out of + for 7 and 28 days respectively, these regressions included 10% limits, while 94% of the data were within 4- 10%. all the 13 variables. 2. In this work new variables were introduced in the prediction regressions for the first time, these variables 7. C O N C L U S I O N S were the lday accelerated compressive strength of the cement and its corresponding ultrasonic pulse velocities and The following conclusions were drawn from this study: densities. These factors proved to be of equal importance as 1. Two groups of regressions were proposed, these groups the chemical composition of the cement and fineness, as predict the compressive strength of cement at the ages of 7 they were able alone to yield prediction regressions with and 28 days. In these regressions multivariable accuracies equal or even better in predicting the relationships were used. This type of regressions proved to compressive strength of Portland cement and especially at yield better predicted results than the multivariable linear the age of 28 days. These three variables yielded excellent regressions used by other researches. Each group contained information on the cement binding capacity, internal six models of regressions, each containing different structure of the mortar mix and accuracy of workmanship in

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Materials and Structures / Mat6riaux et Constructions, Vol. 36, December 2003

preparation of the test specimens. This is because, the mix proportions were all fixed, and the only variable is the cement properties itself. 3. From the comparison between the regressions obtained, it can be said that including the insoluble residue IR, loss on ignition LOI and lime saturation factor LSF did not result in significant improvement in the correlation coefficient. Therefore these variables may not be included in the regression. The correlation coefficients obtained for this were 0.889 and 0.923 for 7- and 28-day compressive strength respectively, compared with 0.903 and 0.929 for regressions in which these variables were included with the other ones. NOTATIONS IR: Insoluble residue LOI: Loss on ignition LSF: Line saturation factor S.E: Standard error C.C: Coefficient of correlation REFERENCES [1] Lea, F.M., 'Chemistry of Cement and Concrete', third edition, 1970 (Edward Amold Ltd, London). [2] Neville, A.M., 'Properties of Concrete', 4th edition (Pitman publishing, London, 1995). [3] Lapinas, R.A., 'Accelerated concrete strength testing by modified boiling method: concrete producer's view', SP 56, Accelerated Strength Testing, American Concrete Institute, ACI (1978) 75-93.

[4] Tsivilis, S. and Parrisakis, G., 'Mathematical model for the prediction of cement strength', Cement and Concrete Research 25 (1) (1995) 9-14. [5] Popovics, S., 'Model for the quantitative description of the kinetics of hardening of Portland cement', Cement and Concrete Research 17 (5) (1987) 821-831. [6] British standards, BS 1881: part 112, Methods of Accelerated curing of test cubes, 1983. [7] British Standards BS1881: Part203: Recommendations of measurement of velocity of ultrasonicpulse in concrete, 1986. [8] Tomsett, H.N., 'the practical use of ultrasonic pulse velocity measurements in the assessment of concrete quality', Magazine of Concrete Research 32 (110) (1980) 7-16. [9] Malhotra, V.M., 'Non-destructive methods for testing concrete', Mines Branch Monograph 875, (Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa, Canada), 1971, 55 p. [10] Jones, R., 'Non-Destructive Testing of Concrete', (Cambridge University, London, 1962). [11] Steven, C., Chapra, R. and Canale, P., 'Numerical Methods for Engineers with Personal Computer Applications', 1989. [12] Blain, R.L., Arni, H.T. and Defore, M.R., 'Compressive strength test of mortars, Section 7, Interrelations between cement and concrete properties', part 3 (Building Science Series 8, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C.) 1968, 1-65. [13] Alexander, K.M., 'The relationship between strength and the composition and fineness of cement', Cement and Concrete Research (1972) 663-680. [14] Odler, I., 'Strength of cement (Final report)', Mater. Struct. 24 (1991) 143-157. [15] Aldridge, L.P., 'Estimatingth strength from cement composition', Proceedings of 7 ICCC, Paris, 1980, Vol. 3, VI-83 to VI-86.

Paper received. January 30, 2002,"Paper accepted." August 27, 2002

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