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Economic Research:

Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint


Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific: Paul F Gruenwald, Singapore (65) 6216 1084; paul.gruenwald@standardandpoors.com Economist, Asia-Pacific: Vincent R Conti, Singapore (65) 6216 1188; vincent.conti@standardandpoors.com Research Contributor: Abhik Debnath, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

Table Of Contents
The Big Picture: Asia-Pacific And The Energy Trade In A Global Context Asia-Pacific Energy Trade Trends: Rising And More Imbalanced Intra-Regional Energy Trade Is Declining; Who Is Picking Up The Slack? The Global Energy Supply Landscape Is Evolving Notes

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Economic Research:

Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint


Asia-Pacific's rise on the global stage is well known. (1) The 13 countries in the region now constitute the largest block in the global economy, with a combined GDP of US$22 trillion or about 30% of total world output. This is up from 24% a decade ago. The rise in Asia-Pacific's share of global trade has been pronounced as well, with the region now generating one-third of that, up 10 percentage points from 1992. Within Asia-Pacific, the big story has been China; following more than two decades of near double-digit growth, it has become the world's second-largest economy. Trade, more than any other factor, defines the economic footprint of a more vibrant Asia-Pacific and, more specifically, China. That's because trade, more than production itself, is the channel through which the "Asian story" is projected throughout the world economy. A major component of Asian trade is commodities; the fast growth and urbanization of the Asia-Pacific region have driven up commodity prices (and production) in a host of resource-rich economies, ranging from Brazil to Yemen, many of which now list China as their largest trading partner. High among the commodities in the China trade is energyoil, gas, and coalfor which demand has surged. This reflects fast industrial growth and an expanding middle class. Overview Mirroring the region's fast growth and rising consumption, the share of energy in Asia-Pacific trade continues to grow. It now has Asia-Pacific's largest trade deficit in oil. Not surprisingly, these trends are being led by China, which has quickly pulled even with Japan in terms of energy trade levels. Korea and India are large players as well. Reflecting its relatively poor energy endowment, Asia-Pacific is increasingly turning to countries outside the region to supply its rising energy needs. Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America have recently gained market share in Asia-Pacific. Asia-Pacific has increasingly sourced its crude oil and gas imports from outside the region and, owing to China becoming a net importer, has recently begun to source a growing share of coal from elsewhere as well; bucking the trend, higher-value-added refined petroleum imports are increasingly being sourced from within the region.

Because Asia-Pacific (Northeast Asia in particular) is a relatively energy-poor region, it will depend more and more on imports to satisfy its rising energy appetite. That is likely to alter the dynamics of both the energy business and Asia-Pacific economies in many ways--some already evident and others no doubt unpredictable. We are already seeing the rise of new energy trading partners with Asia-Pacific, ranging from Central Asia to Africa to Latin America.

The Big Picture: Asia-Pacific And The Energy Trade In A Global Context
The meteoric rise of Asia-Pacific as a growth and trading region can be seen through the lens of energy. But, unlike the better known story of manufacturing, where trade with the rest of the world is skewed toward exports, the rise in

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

energy has been skewed toward imports (see chart 1).


Chart 1

Asia-Pacific's share of global trade continues to rise steadily and now accounts for about one-third of both exports and imports. This is an increase of about 10 percentage points from two decades ago. But the energy trade differs. Asia-Pacific's share of global energy imports has been outpacing its share of global imports of all goods by 7-8 percentage points and now stands above 40%. In contrast, Asia-Pacific's energy exports' share of global energy exports has not only lagged the global export total, but has been broadly unchanged over the past two decades at about 17%. Put alternatively, Asia-Pacific is an energy-short region and is becoming increasingly so. Economists would characterize this by saying that Asia-Pacific does not have a "revealed comparative advantage" in energy (as it does in manufacturing). This means that the energy export share of the region is below the global average, and falling. The implication is that Asia-Pacific must increasingly look outside its own backyard for energy supplies, an issue we discuss later.

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

Asia-Pacific Energy Trade Trends: Rising And More Imbalanced


The global view of Asia-Pacific's energy trade presented so far--rising shares and dependencies--carries over as we move from a global to a regional perspective and turn our focus to individual commodities and individual countries. Of course, some interesting exceptions and anomalies stand out as well. Staying with measurement by shares, energy as a percentage of total Asia-Pacific trade has risen rapidly over the past two decades (see table 1). Moreover, this is true, albeit at an uneven pace, for all three main energy commodity groups: coal, oil, and gas. Starting with exports, the combined shipments of coal, oil, and gas from Asia-Pacific economies in aggregate have climbed 3 percentage points to reach 8.5% of total exports in 2012. However, most of the action has been on the import side. The share of imports of these three fuels into the region as a share of all imports has doubled over the same period to reach 23.6%. Given Standard & Poor's forecasts of continued robust GDP growth in the region, combined with ongoing buoyant global energy prices, these energy trade shares look set to continue to rise.
Table 1

Asia-Pacific's Share Of Energy In Total Trade


(Customs data values, in percentages) Exports Coal 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 Oil 3.8 3.1 3.2 4.8 6 Gas Total 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 5.5 4.7 4.8 6.5 8.5 Coal 1.1 0.9 0.8 1 1.7 Imports Oil 10.3 8.9 10.1 15.4 18.7 Gas 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 3.2 Imports 12.9 11.2 12.6 18.3 23.6

Sources: Standard & Poor's, UN COMTRADE.

Oil is the largest component of Asia-Pacific's energy trade by a wide margin, and has accounted for the lion's share of the increase in trade shares over the past two decades. The commodity constitutes about three-fourths of the total energy trade on both the import and export sides. And most of the expansion in energy trade in our 20-year sample occurred in the past decade, particularly in 2002-2007 when global prices were rising quickly, although the trend continued through 2012. In our view, what matters for the rising Asia-Pacific demand is physical energy trade. That is, we want volumes and not values, which conflate volume and price changes. It is difficult to cleanly disentangle the volume and price effects for the overall energy market. But we can use a single country and a single product as an approximation. Using data for China, we found that between 2002 and 2007, almost two-thirds of the rising import bill reflected prices (which peaked in 2007). However, between 2007 and 2012, less than one-quarter of the increase reflected price changes. Therefore, the steep growth in energy trade is not simply a price phenomenon. In U.S. dollar terms (as opposed to shares), Asia-Pacific, not surprisingly, is running an increasingly large energy trade deficit (see chart 2). (2) Yet, while imports exceed exports for all three main commodities, the deterioration of the trade

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

balance over the past decade has been uneven. This is particularly true for oil, where the trade deficit rose seven-fold over our sample period to US$720 billion in 2012. The gas deficit rose by an even larger percentage, but from a much lower base, and stood at US$120 billion. The coal trade remained broadly balanced with a deficit of US$23 billion, with some deterioration in the post-financial crisis period.
Chart 2

Although the region is running an energy trade deficit, not all countries have overall energy trade deficits. And at the product level, not all countries are running deficits or surpluses in each of the three products. But it is interesting to note that no country in the region runs a trade surplus in all three energy products; in other words, no country in Asia-Pacific is entirely energy self-sufficient (see chart 3).

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

Chart 3

At the individual economy level, Asia-Pacific has nine net energy importers and four net energy exporters. Energy trade balances across the region in 2012 ran the gamut from a deficit of 17% of GDP for Singapore to a surplus of 6% of GDP for Malaysia (see chart 3). The unweighted average was 4.4% of GDP, almost entirely reflecting trade in oil. In U.S. dollar terms, Japan and China dominated Asia-Pacific with energy trade deficits of $288 billion and $284 billion, respectively, in 2012, each about one-third of the region's total. India and Korea each ran an energy trade deficit of about $130 billion. China and India were mainly oil stories while, in Japan and Korea, gas constituted one-third and one-quarter of their energy imports, respectively. Malaysia ran the largest energy trade surplus in the region of more than 6% of its GDP in 2012, almost fully accounted for by gas. Indonesia and Australia have energy surpluses of about 2% of GDP; both are coal and gas exporters and oil importers. Vietnam has historically run an energy surplus but this has been dissipating in recent years. To give a sense of scale relative to the importers, the sum of the energy trade surplus in 2012 for these four economies was about US$70 billion. The relative positions Asia-Pacific economies held with respect to their energy trade balances have not changed much over the past decade when measured in terms of GDP. Singapore, Korea, and Thailand have remained at the top for

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

the deficit countries and the four net surplus countries have not changed either. But in U.S. dollar terms, China share of the region's energy trade has risen significantly to more than 30% of net energy imports in 2012, from about 10% in 2002 (see "China's Search For Energy Leads It Outside The Region," published April 21, 2014, on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal.)

Intra-Regional Energy Trade Is Declining; Who Is Picking Up The Slack?


Asia-Pacific's ability to meet its own energy demand is clearly declining. The trends are apparent from the share of intra-regional energy imports as a percentage of energy imports from all countries (see chart 4). We would contrast this result with the manufacturing sector, where Asia-Pacific's intra-regional trade share is still on the rise.
Chart 4

While intra-regional energy trade shares are generally declining, the trends are not identical across products and there is one important exception. First, crude oil and gas are increasingly being sourced outside of Asia-Pacific; their intra-regional import shares have been falling steadily and were just 7% and 31%, respectively, in 2012, compared with 21% and 60% in 1992. Although there are some sizable gas exporters in the region (Malaysia and Indonesia), they are evidently not able to keep up with demand. Second, coal was being increasingly sourced from within the region until

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

the middle of the previous decade, at which time it reached a peak 87% of global coal trade. Subsequently, the intra-regional import share began to decline, and by 2012, about three-quarters of global coal imports by Asia-Pacific economies were sourced from within the region. The swing factor here was China. The intra-regional trade share of refined oil has been steadily rising, reflecting growing exports to Asia-Pacific from Korea and, to a lesser extent, India and Thailand. This suggests that at least some Asian countries are moving up the value chain in their oil exports. Since Asia-Pacific is running ever-larger trade deficits in energy products, and intra-regional energy trade shares are declining, various countries outside the region are benefitting by picking up the slack.

Crude oil: Out of Africa


Asia-Pacific's growing reliance on "nontraditional" supply countries shows up clearly in its crude oil imports. Imports into the region are still dominated by economies in the Middle East (including Qatar), with a relatively steady share at about 60%. But new suppliers needed to be found as the reliance on supplies within the region (mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia) has declined.
Table 2

Asia-Pacific Crude Oil Import Sources


(As a percentage of total crude oil imports) 2000 Middle East* Africa Asia-Pacific Qatar Latin America Russia 53.4 5.2 12.6 5.9 0.8 0.5 2007 59.1 10.1 9.3 5.7 1.5 3.7 2012 55.8 13.1 6.4 6.1 5.6 4.8

* Excluding Qatar. Sources: Standard & Poor's, UN COMTRADE.

The largest gain in import shares this millennium has come from Africa--rising to 13% in 2012 from 5.2% in 2000. There have also been large gains from Latin America and Russia, whose shares of crude oil imports rose to 5.6% and 4.8%, respectively, in 2012, from below 1% in 2000. On the demand side, China has passed Japan as the largest oil importer in Asia-Pacific, although, as a share of GDP, its imports haven't increased much since 2007, rising by 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%. The fact that China's import growth lags its GDP growth suggests that rising domestic production is able to meet the bulk of marginal oil demand. India's imports leapt past South Korea's and passed the $100 million mark in 2012, although, as a share of GDP, Korea continues to have the highest import bill in Asia-Pacific at 7%.

Refined Oil: Asia-Pacific gains market share in its own backyard


Refined oil is an outlier in the energy sector in that it is the only product where Asia-Pacific is sourcing an increasing share of imports from within the region. Unlike the case with crude, the Middle East (ex-Qatar) supplies a minority share of Asia-Pacific's refined oil imports. Moreover, this share more than halved from 26% in 2000 to just 11% in 2012.

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

Table 3

Asia-Pacific Refined Oil Import Sources


(As a percentage of total refined oil imports) 2000 Asia-Pacific Middle East* Russia European Union Latin America United States Qatar 57.3 26.2 2.1 2.1 0.4 2.5 0.5 2007 61.9 16.5 3.4 2.8 1.5 1.9 1.0 2012 63.4 11.3 4.9 4.7 3.3 2.4 2.3

* Ex-Qatar. Sources: Standard & Poor's, UN COMTRADE.

As the share of oil imports from the Middle East declined sharply, nearly half of this shortfall was replaced from within Asia-Pacific itself; Korea and India stepped up their refining capacity. The remainder came from modest share increases from a number of sources. Russia and the European Union each doubled their shares to a range of 4.5%-5% of Asia-Pacific's refined oil imports, from 2%. But the largest share increase came from Latin America--a boost to 3.75% from 0.75%. Qatar also rose to 2.25%, from 0.5%. Interestingly, Singapore leads Asia-Pacific in refined oil imports. But these track the country's refined exports closely, suggesting a high re-export component as opposed to final demand. China, Korea, and Japan show healthy growth for refined crude oil imports.

Gas: Diversifying outside the region


Asia-Pacific's gas trade story is about how to replace the two largest historical suppliers. These include the region itself, which supplied 31% of total imports in 2012, down from 52% in 2000 (because of declines from Malaysia and particularly Indonesia, which offset a small rise from Australia), and the Middle East ex-Qatar, whose import share halved to 14% over the period (see table 4).
Table 4

Asia-Pacific Gas Import Sources


(As a percentage of total gas imports) 2000 Asia-Pacific Malaysia Indonesia Australia Qatar Middle East* Africa Turkmenistan Russia 52.3 13.2 26.9 8.2 9.7 28.0 0.5 N.A. 0.0 2007 39.4 13.6 13.8 9.8 17.4 22.3 4.3 N.A. N.A. 2012 31.0 10.1 9.9 9.2 24.6 14.0 7.1 4.8 4.2

* Ex-Qatar. N.A.--not available. Sources: Standard & Poor's, UN COMTRADE.

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint

Qatar benefited from the shift in sources of gas; the country's share of Asia-Pacific gas imports rose to almost 25% in 2012 from under 10% in 2000. (As a result, the overall Middle East's share of Asia-Pacific gas imports didn't change much.) But there were other significant increases as well. Africa's share of Asia-Pacific gas imports rose to 7% in 2013 from almost nothing in 2000, while Russia and Turkmenistan, which were marginal suppliers in 2000, accounted for 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively, in 2012. From the demand side, China is the biggest buyer for gas produced outside of Asia-Pacific. Singapore again is high on the list, with the data suggesting a high re-export component as in the case of refined oil. By contrast, Japan's recent demand for gas from outside the region appears muted.

Coal: Growing, but still modest, import dependence


The trade pattern for coal within the region changed sharply in the middle of the previous decade. Prior to the peak of 87% (the highest level of any energy product in our sample) in 2006, the share of Asia-Pacific coal imports coming from within the region had been rising steadily to 80% in 2000, from about 60% in 1990. The largest suppliers from outside the region were Canada, the U.S., and Africa, whose shares steadily declined over this period because of rising Asian production. However, since the 2006 peak, the share of coal imports coming from within the region has fallen to 73% in 2012.
Table 5

Asia-Pacific Coal Import Sources


(As a percentage of total coal imports) 2000 Asia-Pacific Russia Canada United States Africa 80.4 3.0 8.9 3.2 3.3 2007 85.7 4.5 5.4 0.5 2.2 2012 73.3 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.4

Sources: Standard & Poor's, UN COMTRADE.

The U.S. has bounced back since 2007 to claim a 5% share of Asia-Pacific coal imports, and Canada's share has stabilized at 5%-6%. But Russia has made the biggest gains with its share more than doubled since 2000 to above 6% in 2012. China saw the sharpest change. In 2007, it was still exporting coal, with just under US$4 billion in shipments that year. By 2012, China was importing US$27 billion in coal, almost level with Japan, which has historically been the largest coal importer by value in the region. (3) Japan, Korea, and India also spent more on coal imports in the post crisis period (roughly US$10 billion each annually) with Korea having the largest coal deficit as a share of GDP at 1.4% in 2012.

The Global Energy Supply Landscape Is Evolving


The energy trade provides an alternative lens through which to view the rise of Asia-Pacific on the global stage. We can see these footprints by looking at the following:

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Economic Research: Asia-Pacific Energy Trade: A Hungry Region Extends Its Global Footprint Global trade (where energy demand from Asia-Pacific is outstripping even its pace of trade integration into the global economy); The rise of China (which is increasingly propelling Asia-Pacific's energy trade deficit); and The accompanying search for new energy suppliers (which is benefitting a swathe of countries from Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America). Asia-Pacific's energy story is different from its better-known manufacturing and industrialization story. Although the region has rising income and commodity demand, unlike in manufacturing, the intra-regional benefits of closer energy trade integration through joining the regional supply chains appear more muted. In energy, either you have enough (like in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia), or you don't, and need to buy from elsewhere (like Japan and Korea, and followed quickly by China and India).The space for in-between niche players (Singapore is the exception) appears limited. Although energy demand growth in Asia-Pacific and elsewhere looks reasonably strong and stable going forward, the patterns of global energy supply are in flux. Developments include the ongoing shale oil revolution as well as alternative sources such as solar and wind, which continue to move toward commercial viability. These will alter the supply-demand balance of key economies as well as bring potentially new players into the market. All of this suggests to us that blind extrapolation of Asia-Pacific's recent energy trends needs to be treated with the appropriate degree of caution.

Notes
(1) Asia-Pacific is defined as the advanced economies of Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, plus the emerging economies of China, India, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. (2) The data in this section come from the UN's COMTRADE. This database allows researchers to see both trading partners and goods traded simultaneously. The data are annual and we use 2002-2012 in this report. (3) In coal imports, we are not making a distinction between coking coal used in steel production and thermal coal used in the energy sector.

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