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Chinas growing presence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

How will this affect the geo politics of the region?

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China has been showing significant interest in the India Ocean and in the South Asia. China constant efforts and presence in strengthening international relations among the Indias neighbors seem to be a strategy to protect the economic and security interests in the long run. As China extends its international reach, South Asia is showing significant importance to Chinas economic growth and security. The globalization of Chinas economy meant an unprecedented dependence in the oceans and this interest is not surprising since significant amount of Chinas oil import is happening through this region. China became a net oil importer in 1993, the second largest consumer of oil in 2003, and the third largest importer of oil by 2004.2 in 2010; Chinese oil imports are expected to total 210 million tons, a 5.5 percent increase over 2009 imports. Much of this oil is brought to China by tankers from the Persian Gulf via the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malacca. India is the biggest player to challenge China dominance, with friendly Pakistan, fragile Tibet,

Burma and Sri Lanka in the Indian borders. border With conflict the the Sino-Indian relation

between India and China is unstable India is envisioned to outperform China by 2020s with the current economic development. It is also important to note that Indias ability to easily access to more advance military capabilities than China with the support of Russia, despite the relationships between China and Russia. India continues to display strong military capabilities special with the latest missile with ranges of 2000-3000 KM and the nuclear power. With current expected growth by 2020 India population will dominate and by the advantage of having strong military personal when comparing with China due to its to the Chinas one child policy. Bilateral trades between the two countries is also showcasing significant important, although India is not a major exporter India seems to be China second largest export after USA. China has gazed its eyes on the Indian border countries while its relationship is been shaky with India. Relationship among Pakistan and China seems to be prosperous. Pakistan did not hesitate to recognize when PRC changed to ROC and they always seems to maintained good foreign relationship. Both Pakistan and China seems to be having unresolved issues with India and being fiends with the enemies Page 2 of 6

can certainly be an advantage for both countries. China has been generous in helping to strengthen the Pakistan military capabilities with the supply of military equipment, missiles, combat vessels and aircrafts. Even though bilateral trade relationships among the countries is not significant, China trade with Pakistan has grown to USD 7 billion by 2008. China provided financial support and labor to the development of Pakistan port of Gwadar. This port may be used to diversify the Pakistan military service and for the transportation of oil and other materials to China reducing the contact with the Indian Ocean and avoid the transit passage. Bangladesh is a very good example of how china is looking for its dominance over the Indian Ocean. Looking at the relationship between China and Bangladesh; Bangladesh seems to look for close relations with the United States and China. Chinas involvement in this is a concern for India, with Chinese contribution in Bangladesh and particularly in Chittagong port seems as a major move into the Indian Ocean. Also the Chinas relationship with Myanmar is interesting since it shares about 3000 kilometer boarder with China and India. China Myanmar partnering is speculated as a strategic movement against India and Myanmar location is prime importance to both countries. India and China both believe that strengthening ties with Myanmar are the key to dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. Because of this significant importance both parties are showing interest in the Myanmar development. China seems to be dominating this internal battle being the largest trading partner and main source of foreign income for Myanmar, therefore China already has significant influence in Myanmar. China is already investing greatly in to the development of ports in Myanmar enabling greater accessibility to the Indian Ocean. Both countries believe that Myanmar dominance will play a major role in gaining advantage in the India Ocean.China and Myanmar have also decided to carry on strengthening communications and regulation to increase mid-term and long-term objectives of bilateral exchanges in political, economical, trade, security and other areas. China invested in a gas pipeline which will transport about 12 billion cubic meter of oil across the country to the southern province of China. China seems to be interested in building fail safe transportation system with the plan to complete the highway and railway like from Bangladesh to Myanmar. They are also building economic zones and power plants at the commercial seaport at Kyaukpyu's natural harbor. The two sides have also conducted feasibility study for construction of Ruili-Kyaukpyu road that would act as China-Myanmar corridor. This would satisfy China's need for energy security as well as link to Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean and beyond.

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China seems to be exploring week links between the countries to gain advantage and Chinas relationship to Sri Lanka seems to be one of them. China seems to be strategically getting in to a close relationship with Sri Lanka especially when the relationships between Indian and Sri Lanka seems to be damaged. China has utilized these gaps within the respective relationship to methodically to undermine India's overpowering political, vital and business impact in Sri Lanka. In the South Asian perspective, Chinas plans seems to be powerfully protecting their stability of its boundaries, following its territorial claims, building strategically communication lines to the border areas and while gazing at long term economic interest .Looking at these kinds of circumstances, developing powerful connections with Sri Lanka was a valid move for China as it will enable strategically advantage in safeguarding its interests in the Indian Ocean. Chinas investments during the post-war reproduction period has made Sri Lanka a closer friend with China. So far China is accounted for to have given over $1.8 billion worth of arms to Sri Lanka. China's Poly Technologies is assessed to have supplied $37.6 million worth ammo and arms for the armed force and war fleet in 2007. Chinese organizations are involved in various foundation, infrastructure developments and specially port advancement activities. At present over 25,000 Chinese specialists are in different activities in Sri Lanka and many number of them may stay. Chinese arrangements to fabricate telecommunication and data might expand China's alternatives to listen stealthily on Indian and Indian Ocean correspondence and to complete electronic warfare. Relationship building with Bhutan is also a classic example of Chinas strategy in exploring the week spots. India withdrew all subsidies on cooking gas and kerosene that it had been providing to Bhutan, sending gas and kerosene prices in Bhutan soaring. This has given rise to protests from within Bhutan that India was looking to stoke discontent within the kingdom in the hope of influencing the election outcome. China is looking to expand its diplomatic influence in Thimphu. Bhutan did not have diplomatic relations with China because of the dispute over their 470km border and now China is looking to win Bhutan over from India. Bhutan seems to be drifting in to the arms of China when Indian relationship with Bhutan is failing. China has outlined its plan of extending the railway network from Lhasa to Zangmu on the Nepal border. According to this blueprint, yet another line will branch out midway from the line at Shigatse. This line will move east and go up to Yadong, at the mouth of Chumbi Valleystrategically located at the tri junction of India-China-Bhutan. Any development in the tri-junction is a matter of concern for India. The region is close to Indias corridor which links the north-east passage. The move has alarmed India because it will bring the Chinese forces within a few kilometres of the Siliguri Corridor which connects the rest of India with the Northeast and Nepal with Bhutan. Having an agriculture and forestry based economy; Bhutan has recently opened up its economy. Chinese Page 4 of 6

companies have been given contract to construct the worlds tallest Buddha Statue in Thimphu. Beijing is exporting farming and telecommunication equipment and has also offered to invest in projects related to health and education services. Unquestionably, China is an attractive source of investment. Today, the security of Bhutan is vulnerable. Bhutan is no more a protectorate of India and is steadily moving towards China. Chinese government is utilizing delicate force strategies to deliberately connect Nepal with China. Nepal is creating ties with China; however this seems to have no adverse effect with Nepal's relations with India. It seems Nepal is absolutely dependent upon a win-win circumstance as Nepal is simply investigating financial benefits with China". China is overwhelmingly offering military support to Nepal which seems as an immediate countermeasure against India. China seems to be progressively attempting to take control of India's position of being the largest trading partner with Nepal. In 2011-2012, India-Nepal exchange was USD 3 billion and the sum volume of exchange between Nepal and China added up to USD 1.2 billion. To upgrade these ties, China has offered zero-duty medicine to Nepal. There are presently just about 19 China Study Centers and Institutes in Nepal to advertise Chinese dialect and society. China is also helping Nepal for the advancement tourism, administration, and hydropower and building framework for deeper connectivity to socio-financial development of Nepal. Conclusion For the long term sustainability of China there are many key factors to consider. Chinas strategical planning will require paying close focus on the Indian Ocean. China is worried about its developing dependence in the Indian Ocean paths to manage China's growing economy. In 2010 China imported over half of its oil consumption and Chinese President Hu Jintao raised the issue of the Malacca Strait. There is little doubt that it's a crucial chokepoint on Chinas oil channels. China interest in developing substitute harbors and pipelines, such as in Pakistan, Burma, Sri Lanka, would seem to be focused desire to reduce the criticality of the Malacca Strait. Even if Chinas oil support didn't have to pass through the Strait of Malacca, it would nevertheless traverse significant portions of the Indian Ocean. China is more motived on developing close ties, including but not limited to military ties, trade relations, transportation with the various South Asian countries than necessarily focusing on surrounding and isolating India. The latter is simply a result for the bigger purpose of making sure that Chinas south flank and the attendant oil support is protected and populated by welcoming nations. The advancement of Page 5 of 6

the Indian naval forces means that Chinese economic development is possibly at the mercy of India, as well as the United States. The forging of Indian security bonds with Japan and the United States is therefore a source of problem. This is likely an important element of Chinese attempts to create Indias neighbors as friendly states and a strategy that China is said to harbor when it comes to Indian Ocean region. Leveling India is likely to be a concern for China, not merely for the safety of Chinas oil lifeline, but also due to the fact that Indias overall growth. Just as the U.S. is stressed regarding China's grow th and Chinese leaders are challenged with the potential of a soaring India. The possible worry is that India will catch up with China before China catches up with the United States or even Western Europe. All of this means that China must invest more focus, effort and energy to staying in the lead against India because it has less of a margin for error.

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