1

Finding the line of best t

When Barbara, Carmen, and Denice looked at the following plot, they thought the points lay more or less in a line. They each drew a dierent line, using dierent ideas about what line would t the data best. Top Earnings, WTA (Womens Tennis) 2001

You might have seen this in the problem set, Tennis, anyone?

When statisticians and other mathematicians want to t a line (or another curve) to data, they often use numerical methods and strict guidelines about what the curve of best t would be. Carmen found a line with equation y = 0.16x +2.44. Denice found a line with equation y = 0.19x + 2.58. Both lines miss each point. The dierence actual value predicted value is called a residual.

Problems with a Point: November 13, 2001

c EDC 2001

Finding the line of best t: Problem

For example, Carmens line predicts the ninth ranked players earnings to be $1 million: 0.16(9) + 2.44 = 1. The actual earnings was $0.946385. The residual is 0.946385 1, which is 0.053615. Denices line predicts the earnings to be $0.87, so the residual is 0.946385 0.87, which is 0.033615. 1. 2. 3. Residuals are calculated: actual value predicted value. What does the sign on the residual tell you? What does the absolute value of the residual represent? Calculate the absolute values of the residuals and complete the following table. For the last row, nd the sums of the last two columns. Rank Actual Predicted Earnings |Residuals| Carmen Denice

Earnings Carmen Denice 1 2.522610 2 2.238624 3 2.086263 4 1.832242 5 1.465116 6 1.314659 7 1.155716 8 0.995704 9 0.946385 10 0.867702 Sum: 4.

Which line, Carmens or Denices, has a lower sum of the absolute value of the residuals? Why would that line be better to use for predicting players earnings than the other?

Using the absolute value of the residuals gives you a way to decide if one line is better than another. However, its dicult to use absolute values to generalize the method so that you can nd the best line to use for any data set.
Problems with a Point: November 13, 2001 c EDC 2001

Finding the line of best t: Problem

3
Suppose you have a data set {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )}. The standard deviation in the x variable is Sx and in the y variable is Sy . Let x and y be the means of the x and y values, respectively. Then the least squares regression line is y = a + bx, where b= 1 n1
n

One line of best t is the one that makes the squares of the residuals as small as possible. A formula was found for this line, using techniques to make the sum of the squares of the residuals as small as possible. The resulting line is called the least squares regression line. (Regression simply means that some numerical way is used to decide how well the line ts the data. This is least squares regression because the way to decide is to make squares of the residuals the least possible.) The calculations are not really complicated, but even with just a few data points, it can get messy. Fortunately, graphing calculators and statistical software can use the formula to nd the least squares regression line easily. 5. Use a graphing calculator or other software to nd the least squares regression line. (This is sometimes just called linear regression.) 6. Use the line you just found to complete the following table, similar to the one in problem 3. Actual Predicted Earnings Residuals2 Denice

i=1

(xi x)(yi y ) (Sx )2

and

a = y by

You can copy Denices predicted earnings column from problem 3, but youll need to calculate values for the other columns.

Rank

Earnings Denice Regression 1 2.522610 2 2.238624 3 2.086263 4 1.832242 5 1.465116 6 1.314659 7 1.155716 8 0.995704 9 0.946385 10 0.867702 Sum:

Regression

Problems with a Point: November 13, 2001

c EDC 2001

Finding the line of best t: Answers

Answers
1. If the residual is negative, the predicted value is too high. (That is, the point is below the line.) If the residual is positive, the predicted value is too low. (The point is above the line.) The (vertical) distance from the point to the line. Or, the distance from the predicted point to the actual point. The table is as follows: Actual Predicted Earnings Earnings Carmen Denice 2.522610 2.28 2.39 2.238624 2.12 2.2 2.086263 1.96 2.01 1.832242 1.8 1.82 1.465116 1.64 1.63 1.314659 1.48 1.44 1.155716 1.32 1.25 0.995704 1.16 1.06 0.946385 1 0.87 0.867702 0.84 0.68 Sum: |Residuals| Carmen Denice 0.242610 0.132610 0.118624 0.038624 0.126263 0.076263 0.032242 0.012242 0.174884 0.164884 0.165341 0.125341 0.164284 0.094284 0.164296 0.064296 0.053615 0.076385 0.027702 0.187702 1.269861 0.972631
Teachers Note: You might have students complete both tables in pairs, or using spreadsheets or the data list capabilities of a graphing calculator.

2. 3.

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4.

Denices line has a lower sum. That means the total distance between the predicted and actual points is smaller than for Carmens lineso overall, Denices line comes closer to the points than Carmens. The line (using only the rst ve digits for each parameter) is y = 0.19135x + 2.59492. The table is as follows:
To calculate the squares of the residuals, you subtract each predicted value from the corresponding actual (observed) value, then square the result.

5. 6.

Problems with a Point: November 13, 2001

c EDC 2001

Finding the line of best t: Answers

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Actual Predicted Earnings Earnings Denice Regression 2.522610 2.39 2.4036 2.238624 2.2 2.2122 2.086263 2.01 2.0209 1.832242 1.82 1.8295 1.465116 1.63 1.6382 1.314659 1.44 1.4468 1.155716 1.25 1.2555 0.995704 1.06 1.0641 0.946385 0.87 0.8728 0.867702 0.68 0.6814 Sum:

Residuals2 Denice Regression 0.01759 0.01417 0.00149 0.00070 0.00582 0.00428 0.00015 0.00001 0.02719 0.02995 0.01571 0.01747 0.00889 0.00995 0.00413 0.00468 0.00583 0.00542 0.03523 0.03470 0.12203 0.12132

Problems with a Point: November 13, 2001

c EDC 2001