Critically Assess Whether Climate Change Is Reshaping The Global Security Agenda

CRITICALLY ASSESS WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS RESHAPING
THE GLOBAL SECURITY AGENDA: THE CASE OF DARFUR
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
2009
CRITICALLY ASSESS WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS RESHAPING
THE GLOBAL SECURITY AGENDA: THE CASE OF DARFUR
A Thesis
Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in International Relations
of
The University of the West Indies

2009
Institute of International Relations

Faculty of Social Sciences
St Augustine Campus
ABSTRACT
Critically assess whether Climate Change is reshaping the Global Security Agenda: The Case of
Darfur
Climate change is one of the most challenging issues being faced by the global economy in the
21st century. Apart from the fact that significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the
scientific research on climate change, its implications have become so far-reaching that it now
threatens to reshape the global security agenda of the 21st century. As to who would be most
affected by climate change, research has shown with certainty that Africa would suffer the most.
The environment within this region particularly in Darfur, Sudan is already suffering from the
negative effects of climate change. Increased desertification coupled with declining rainfall and
increased drought has forced many darfurians to clash with each other over access to vital
resources such as land and water. These clashes have worsened already existing tensions
between ethnic and political groups in the region. The thesis therefore (through the case of
darfur) endeavours to determine the linkages between climate change and security so as to
determine the extent to which the climate change is reshaping the global security agenda.
Keywords: Climate Change, Security, Darfur, Climate Governance

Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Gail T.C. Rigobert of the Institute of International
Relations at the University of the West Indies, my sister, Gail Marlene Baptiste, as well as my
friends for all their help with my Master‟s Thesis over the past year.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………….…………iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS…...……………………………………………………iv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS…………………………………………….…………v
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 7
OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................ 9
DELIMITATIONS .................................................................................................. 10
METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................. 11
CHAPTER I: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................. 14
CHAPTER II:THE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION... ........ 20

THE DRIVE FOR RESOURCES: ENERGY SECURITY………………………..21
FOOD SECURITY .................................................................................................. 23
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES .......................................................................... 24
CHAPTER III: THE CASE OF DARFUR ............................................................. 26

CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA .......................................................................... 26
THE ETHNIC COMPOSTION OF DARFUR......................................................... 27
THE ECOLOGY OF DARFUR ............................................................................... 28
THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT ............................................................................. 29
THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE OF DARFUR ...................................................................... 31
LAND ISSUES ......................................................................................................................... 31
RESOURCE WARS ................................................................................................................. 33
CLIMATE CHANGE IN DARFUR: THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE CONFLICT? 34
CHAPTER IV: CLIMATE GOVERNANCE ......................................................... 38

GREEN GOVERNANCE: GOVERNANCE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL ............. 38
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION ...................................................................... 39
CIVIC ENVIRONMENTALISM ............................................................................ 40
RADICAL RESISTANCE ........................................................................................................ 40
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN DARFUR ............................................................. 41
CHAPTER V: RECOMMENDATIONS: THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS .................................................................................................... 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS ........... 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) ............................................................. 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) .............................................................. 44
THE “JANJAWEED” MILITIA GROUP ................................................................ 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES ........................................................................ 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) ................................................................................ 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN)............................................................................... 47
CHAPTER VI: IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY

AGENDA? .................................................................................................................. 48
TERRORISM ........................................................................................................... 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS...................................... 50
CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 53
BIBLOGRAPHY........................................................................................................ 55
APPENDICES ............................................................................................................ 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION ........................................................................ 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR ..................................................................... 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 ..................................................... 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN ........................... 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR ................................... 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR ........................................ 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 2007...68

INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda, climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions. The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels.
Not only have former sceptics such as George W. Bush, recognised the problem, but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8.
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance, the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of „high
politics‟, namely security politics. The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere. Or has it? In the scientific community, a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change. 2 But, there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security.
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis, that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled. And as such, all that remains now is further perfection of
1
See UNSCDP, United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security, UN Security Council 5663rd meeting, 17 April 2007.
2
The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC), have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place
3
See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report (Geneva, Switzerland
2001); International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out. This thesis however argues the
contrary.
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology, a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science. The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security. Such lack of clarity
is unsettling, not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security.
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land, water
and grazing rights.4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region. More than 200,000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence.5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives? Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region.6 However, given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region, the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis. In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs, “Two things have happened. First, the population has doubled in
4
UNEP. “Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment.” United Nations Environment Programme. June 2007.
http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf.. 9
5
Kevane, Michael. and Leslie Gray. 2007. The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis, The University of Santa
Clara.
6
Ibid p. 6
the last generation, and the second, the rainfall has gone down sharply. These are very hungry,
crowded people, and now they are killing each other….Darfur, at its core, is a conflict of
insufficient rainfall.”7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris. This begs the question, has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security? This is a question that needs to be answered.
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda. It will
also look at the current state of research, so as to create a pathway for probable consequences. It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change. More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions:
 Will global security politics be affected by climate change?
 Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change?
 Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change?
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security. It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change, and security. Secondly, the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security, food security and environmental refugees to determine
7
http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/viewMedia.php/prmTemplateID/9/prmID/5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity. The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region. It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region. Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda, the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change.
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis, the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism. Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors.8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security. 9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security.
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school. Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems,10 however not many have exclusively dealt with
8
See Weiner, Myron. 1992. Security, Stability and International Migration, International Security; Ullman,
Richard. 1983. Redefining Security. International Security.
9
Vayrynen, Raimo. 1998. Environmental Security and Conflicts: Concepts and Policies. International Studies. 13
10
See, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change
Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers.
its possible effects on international security. As such as a starting point of this thesis, security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology, economy and the like.
Additionally, it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics / International security. It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change. Also, given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not, say,
meteorology, it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel. The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years. In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity. For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing. However, from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research. Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security.
Methodology
For this thesis, I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time. The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena. Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security.
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine. Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed.
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur. The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis. Here, land tenure issues, Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed. Overall, the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions:
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict? Who are the main
actors/players? What role does climate change play in the current conflict? Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land, energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict?
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict. Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question.
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region. It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments, NGOs,
International Institutions, Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region.

Finally, it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda, or being dwarfed by these „more‟ critical issues.
CHAPTER I: LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda? This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles. 11 However, before discussing the
question at hand, one may want to define what climate change is. The UNFCCC defines climate
change as “a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.”12 However many argue that this definition
of so called „climate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions.13 Additionally, changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt. As such, the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading.14 Despite, these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change,
the phenomenon itself is taking place.15 More importantly, is its implications for International
security.
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one. One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s, sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to “low intensity biological or chemical warfare” See UNSCDPI, UN Security Council
5663rd meeting, 17 April 2007. http://www.un.org/News/Press /docs/2007/sc9000.doc.htm ( accessed May 12, 2009)
12
“climate change” according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (1992) 31.I.L.M.
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.”
13
K. Campbell et al. The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change, The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 2007, p. 8
14
Ibid
15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change Synthesis
Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 2.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf,
the connection between security and impending climate change.16 Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change, the less time there will be to adapt. As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change, the risk of violence increases, especially
in weak states.
Professor Thomas F. Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security, in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues, but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions, illegitimate or contested governments, and ethnic
group ties.17 However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune. In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying “Climate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerous–and more intractable –than the arms race between the
18
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war”
Clearly, the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda. The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk, Richard. 1971. The Endangered Planet: Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival. New York: Random
House
17
See Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. 1991. On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict.
International Security, 16 ; Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. 1994. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict:
Evidence from Cases. International Security, 19
18
Homer Dixon, Thomas F. 2007. Terror in the Weather Forecast. The New York Times, April 24.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/opinion/24homerdixon.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=thomas%20homer%20dixon%2
0on%20climate%20change%20an%20secrity&st=cse (accessed November 1, 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others). In extreme circumstances,
this is pursued by military power. Here, the agenda, is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary, defending against foreign coercion, attack and invasion. Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state. Ultimate security
therefore is the “absence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attack” (Baldwin 1995). Overall, this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe.19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states. In the end, new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars. What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts? The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts. At various times, critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977).
Ultimately, scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm. Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called „new thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions. The first, is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow „orthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential „threats‟, ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US. The U.S. National Security Council dealt largely with military issues, and U.S.
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration.20 This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security, or up to the level of international or global security.
More importantly, The Post-Cold War era, saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies. All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security. As a result, the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p. 107). However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security, food (in)
security and the like, has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate.21
Despite these criticisms, numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change, including individual states and organizations such as the UN.22
Indeed, there was no doubt that climate change will have significant “adverse effects”. 23 In
addition to its resulting “environmental and development challenges”, the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner, Myron. 1992. Security, Stability and International Migration, International Security; Ullman,
Richard. 1983. Redefining Security. International Security
21
Barnett, Jon. 2003. Security and Climate Change. Global Environmental Change 13(1): p. 14
22
For example, UN General Assembly Resolution 44/206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change.
23
As defined in the Framework Convention “adverse effects of climate change” means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition,
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare.
posed a clear long-term threat to global security. Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear.24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts. According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change “challenge” the foundations of Realism because they are, different from the
“traditional kind of military threats realist worry about.”25 Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens “to destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problems.”26
In an essay on time and the social sciences, Barbara Adam comments that, “cause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate, linear way. The issue of global warming, in
other words, is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable future.”27 Similarly Marc A. Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm.28
These observations/criticisms all point to the issue of securing “evidence” that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security. As such, this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the “casual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long, complex, and full of
uncertainties” http://www.cicero.uio.no/humsec/human_security.html
25
Mearsheimer, John J. 2001. The Tragedy of Power Politics. New York: W.W.Norton.
26
Walt, Stephen M. 1992. Revolution and War. World Politics, no.44: pp 275-316
27
Adam, B. 1995. Time watch: The Social Analysis of Time. Cambridge & Malden, MA: Polity Press.
28
Levy, Marc A. 1995. Is the Environment a National Security Issue? International Security, p. 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda.

CHAPTER II: MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security. The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that “warming of the climate systems is unequivocal, as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”29 Additionally,
“Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.” 30 Also,
another influential report, the Stern Review argues that “the body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a response.”31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate. The Stern review in particular states “Climate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past, and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa, the Nile basin, and Central Asia.”32 Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change, security and conflict.
29
Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 2.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf,
30
Ibid
31
The Stern Review, 2007, p. 3.
32
Ibid. p. viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social, political and economic effects of
climate change. This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates.
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level. He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states.33 He says quote “Conflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states, and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focus.”34 At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change, security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level.35 For Barnett, climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself.36
The Drive for Resources: Energy Security
As it relates to energy security, climate change is expected to affect this significantly. “The
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systems.”37
33
Barnett, Jon. 2003. Security and Climate Change. Global Environmental Change 13 (1): p. 10
34
Ibid
35
Nordas and Gleditsch. 2007. Climate Change and Security. Political Geography, p.634
36
Barnett, 2003, p. 14
37
Adgar, Nei. W. 2003. Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change. Economic
Geography, p. 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is. Thomas L. Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about “The One big thing.”38 But what is this one big thing?
Samuel P. Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or “civilizational” basis. He argues that “conflict between
civilizations” is what will dominate conflict in the modern world. 39 This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia.40 However are these “civilizational” conflicts the
centre/reason for many conflicts? Or, is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change? Additionally, is climate change the driver of, or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations?
Michael T. Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security. In his analysis, Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century. Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism, Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin, detail how consumption in the “tame zones of global politics” can not only create
resource wars in the “wild zones” but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions. Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption, climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change.
38
Friedman, Thomas L. 1999. The Lexus and the Olive Tree. New York: Farrar Straus, p. xvii
39
Huntington, Samuel P. 1999. The Clash of Civilizations. Foreign Affairs, p. 22
40
http://library.thinkquest.org/28172/skosovow.htm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil, natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions. These effects
(declining rainfall, rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict.
Food Security
As it relates to food security,41 Agriculture is particularly important. This is because it not only
provides food for persons, but more importantly, it‟s a main source of livelihood. In Sub-Sahara
Africa, Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods.42 As such, if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region, a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity.
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests. 43 More
specifically, in the case of Africa, by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 50%.44 For Africa, access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis, food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says “food security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
life”
42
Killman, Wulf. 2008. Climate Change and Food Security, Working Paper, Rome: Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), p . 9
43
Report, Summary for Policymakers, p. 50
44
Ibid, p. 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region.
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions, bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity.45 As such, there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees? Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to „climate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million.46 However, Myers came
under severe criticism. Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought.
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore “an economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investment.”47
45
Ibid, p. 61
46
See Myers, Norman. 2001
47
Black, R. 2001. Environmental Refugees: myth or reality? UNHCR Working Paper no. 34, New Issues in Refugee
Research, p. 7
Another interesting argument, is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions. Here, it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security. Is this
actually taking place? According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is „substantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflicts.”48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances, resulting from climate change.49 However, what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow, impacts on security within states.
48
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. 1994. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases.
International Security, p. 19.
49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR), The State of the World’s Refugees, Oxford: Oxford
University Press, p. 28.
CHAPTER III: The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates. This
is largely because of their weak environments, weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty.50 Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly,
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought. This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region. Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital, climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region, more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population. “The low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans, frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods, agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problems.”51 These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought.
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region. This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea.52 It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda, Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 2080.53
50
See Boko, et al. 2007. Africa Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, p. 448
51
Ibid, p. 454.
52
Parry et al., Climate Change 2007, pp. 9-10
53
Boko et al, 2007. Africa Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, p. 446
Moreover, “countries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk, independent of their
endowments of oil and diamonds.”54 States including Nigeria, Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries. Furthermore, because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities, their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension, mitigate against climate change.55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture, a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies. “Our analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflict.”56 Moreover with the decline in rainfall, crops begin to stagnate. This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue; as in the case of Darfur.
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57 is located west of Sudan; to the southwest is the Central African Republic,
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan, and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions. According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam, Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey, M. 2005. Natural Resources, Conflict and Conflict Resolution. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49 (4)
p. 534
55
“In engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades, there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively, directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commodities.” Ibid, p. 534
56
Hendrix, C. and S. Glasner. 2007. Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa. Political Geography, p. 711
57
See Appendix 1
strategic location “being the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan, and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africa.”58
The name Darfur meaning “Land of the Fur” holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa. 59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones: the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people, primarily camel nomads.60 The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads,
called the Baggara.61 According to R.S. O‟ Fahey (2004) “all are Muslim,” but interestingly “no
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenous.”62 This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance.63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work, livestock and
farming systems.64 Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region. However,
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s. This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region.65
58
Adam, B. 1999. Ethnic Composition, Economic Pattern, and Armed Conflicts in Darfur. Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly, 9-10
59
Farris, Stephen. 2007. The Real Roots of Darfur. The Atlantic Online.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200704/darfur-climate/2
60
Referred to as Zaghawa
61
See Appendix 2
62
For example, once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle, he would „become‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy
63
64
Ahmed, Abdalla. Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur: Experiences and Development Options. p.
87
65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2007. Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment , p. 9.
http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf.
Prior to the crisis in 2003, Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land, water and grazing
rights. However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003. As the crisis
subsided, one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration,
however, this was not the case. On the contrary, militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed “scorched earth”66 tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region.67 This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region.
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced, Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees. 68 Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence, some 2.4million people have been displaced
since 2003.69
The History of Conflict: A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom, the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments.70 Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts. 71 A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 1989. 72 With the increasing
„arabization‟ of policies in the region, there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase “Jiaotu”. It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food. The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter, industrial
resources or communication to name a few. See http://www.firstworldwar.com/atoz/ scorchedearth.htm
67
See UNEP. 2007. p. 75
68
Ibid p. 9
69
Ibid
70
Ibid
71
See Appendix 3
72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP), Ibid.
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south.73 These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005. However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict.
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since. It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People. Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act.74 The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion. Since the start of this conflict, a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA; however, violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate. 76 The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation.
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states).
However, power is concentrated in the hands of the “authoritarian”77 central government.78 It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989, the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A)
74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes, the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process, underdevelopment, the lack of political power, land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3496731.stm
75
The Black, nomadic, Arab speaking population
76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report. 2007. Darfur: Revitalizing the Peace Process. 30 April, p. 3.
77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/su.html
78
Ibid
al-Bashir79 encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic, Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region. 80
Regionally, the centralization of decision-making processes, severely limited the capacity of the
local government. Historically, The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions. However, the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government. These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states. This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region, but also given the policy-orientation of the central government, it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely.81
Land Issues
“ Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants, with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories, and
traditions of migration82 and settlement to the east and south.”83 The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly.
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence, in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years.
79
Leader of the National Congress Party
80
O‟Fahey, R.S. 2004. West Sudan: A Complex Reality with a Long History. International Herald Tribune, May 2
p. 27
81
Who are the Darfurians? Arab and African Identities, Violence and External Engagement. African Affairs, p. 11-
12
82
See Appendix 6
83
De Waal, A. 2006. The Question of Land. All Africa. July 16. http://allafrica.com/stories/200607140762.html
In Sudan, the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation.84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region.85 Additionally
through a registry process, the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership. Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for.86
More importantly, because national law effectively trumps traditional law, there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state.87 Additionally in 1971, the People‟s Local Government Act, (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished, this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system.88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems, but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region.
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert. Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s, however the country was
84
Some of these acts include: The Civil Transaction act (1984), The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few.
85
Gordon, Carey N. 1986. Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan: A Legislative Analysis. Journal of
African Law, p. 143 JSTOR
86
Ibid, p. 148
87
Ibid, p. 146
88
De Waal, A. 2006. The Question of Land. All Africa. July 16. http://allafrica.com/stories/200607140762.html
only able to export this commodity in 1999.89 This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations, to
the deliberate „redistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests, to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation.90 Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).91 This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions.92 However to date, the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission.93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned, this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states. China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan. So to does
Malaysia and India. However what distinguishes China from the rest, is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan.94
At present, Sudan produces approximately 500,000 barrels of oil per day. The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly, that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance.95 Despite this growth in production, revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur. Additionally, instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2007. Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment , p. 9.
http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf. p. 38
90
Shankleman, Jill. 2006. Oil Profits and Peace, Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press, p. 122
91
Ibid, p. 120
92
Ibid, p. 127
93
Ibid, p. 128
94
Goodman, P.S. 2004. China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil. Washington Post,
95
UNEP, 2007, p. 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating, poverty reducing initiatives, they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan.96
Climate Change in the Darfur: The root cause of the conflict?
Globally, Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure. A report done in 2007 cautions that “desertification97 has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions, currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger number” (Adeel, et
al. 2007, p. 2). More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside.
The Continent of Africa, although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on “climate
dependant” sectors,98 along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p. 40). This begs the question, although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99, can it really act as a threat to security in this region?
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman, P.S. 2004. China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil. Washington Post,
97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as, “land degradation in arid,
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities”
Adeel, et al. 2007, p.5
98
Such as rain fed agriculture
99
See UNEP. 2007. p. 9
Katrina. According to Peter Schwartz, Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security, “Nobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate change” despite this
“we can say that climate change means more Katrinas. For any single storm, as with any single
drought, it‟s difficult to say. But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughts.”100 In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it “acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the world.”101 This begs the question, is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur? Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region?
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum. According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post, “We discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
hand–an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers, look to its roots,
though, and you discover a more complex dynamic. Amid the social and political causes, The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising in part from climate change.”102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change.103 Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
101
G.R. Sullivan et al. 2007. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, Virginia: The CNA Corporation,
p. 6
102
Ki-moon, Ban. 2007. A Climate Culprit in Darfur. Washington Post, June 16.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/15/AR2007061501857.html
103
See Appendix 4
rainfall.104 The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region. Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards.105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change. Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur. As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups.
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur. Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia.106 Ultimately,
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos.
104
Human Rights Watch. 2004. Darfur in Flames: Atrocities in Western Sudan.
105
UNEP, 2007, p. 9.
106
K. Campbell et al. 2007. The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, p. 8.
CHAPTER IV: CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem. It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance.
Theoretically, Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality, ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism). Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale. It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order. Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach. Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change. The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives. Here, only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed. This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p. 124).
Green Governmentality: Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107 epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state,
mega-science and the business community. It entails the adminstration of life itself, including
individuals, populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p. 3). The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M. Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities, of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p. 99). Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature. According to Luke
1999, these “eco manageralist” practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce “the right disposition of things” between humans and
nature. It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003).
Ecological Modernization: Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth. Here, capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation, investment and trade. The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme. 108 This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions.109 On the surface the deregulated, market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality. For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol, the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market.
109
Backstrand, K. and E. Lovbrand, Climate Governance Beyond 201, p. 130.
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110 However M. Peeters (2003, p.
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account. Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse.
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes.111 It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112. Additionally, the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core.114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability. Climate
equity115 concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU). 2004. EU Emission Trading: An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change. European Commission.
111
Backstrand, K. and E. Lovbrand, p. 132
112
Elliot, L. Global Environmental Governance. p. 58
113
Such as sovereignty, capitalism, scientism and patriarchy
114
Paterson, M. 2000. Understanding Global Environmental Politics: Domination, Accumulation and Resistance.
Basingstoke: Macmillan.
115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur. At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak. The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include: The Ministry of Tourism, The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development, The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, The Ministry of Animal
Resources, The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health. 117 The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources.
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected, their mandates duplicated, not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems.118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan, particularly
the central region of Khartoum, it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades. This was clear when Dr. Alex de Waal 119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur. According to the Sheik, before the decline in rainfall,
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers. However with the onset of
drought in the region, “farmers began to fence off land–even fallow–for fear that it would be
116
H. Ott, et al. 2004. South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse
117
UNEP. 2007.Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment. p. 297
118
Ibid p. 303
119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herds.”120 Additionally, “Farmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration; the land could no longer support both herder and farmer.”121
However, now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region,
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future.
For Darfur, recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders. Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal. Therefore, taking the radical
resistance approach to governance, it means that countries in the developed world 122 must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region. In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers “This changes us from the position of Good Samaritans–
disinterested, uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligation–to a position where we,
unconciously and without malice, created the conditions that led to this crisis.” As such “We
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement. We are already
involved.”123
120
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200704/darfur-climate/2 http
121
Ibid
122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases?
123
CHAPTER V: RECOMMENDATIONS: THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons, Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees.124 Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence, some
2.4 million people have been displaced since 2003.125 For this stakeholder group, once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands. However, they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan. 126 Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region, it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region.
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan, led by the National Congress Party (NCP), has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region. What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur. In March of this year, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP. 2007. p. 9
125
Ibid
126
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur. Prior to the expulsions, aid groups
along with the U.N. ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 4.7 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid.127
However, the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government, not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found.128 Additionally,
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011,129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power. As such the extent to which they can/will
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate.
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers, it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan. How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned. In an effort to improve security throughout the
region, the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament.130 For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation. The effort was successful to the extent that over 3,000 weapons were
collected however, “the campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated, not based on
127
Ibid
128
Gordon, Carey N. 1986. Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan: A Legislative Analysis. Journal of
African Law, p. 148 JSTOR
129
Bayoumy, Yara. 2009. US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections. Reuters, May 7
http://www.reuters.com/article/africaCrisis/idUSL7480189
130
O‟Brien, Adam. 2008. Shots in the Dark: the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign. Smalls Arms Survey, p.
10 http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/portal/spotlight/sudan/Sudan_pdf/SWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaign.pdf
community-level security dynamics. The approach was militaristic, poorly planned and included
few security guarantees.”131 Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1,600 lives being lost.
On the Climate Governance front, the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region.
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment, but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead.132 This report has already been completed, and among other
things; it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance.133 Despite these
efforts, the conflict in Darfur still rages on. It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict.
The “Janjaweed” Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territory/land for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping. Although they have limited influence on the GOS, their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur.
131
Ibid
132
UNEP. 2007. Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment, p. 5
133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights & the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources. This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
134
conflict in Darfur. As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process.
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves. Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims, they are now engaging in the process of “Arab-Arab fractionalization.”135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis. This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region. It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region.
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly. Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region, the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level. However, in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region, this is another issue. “Hundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raid…killing at least 10 soldiers, possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch. 2004. Darfur in Flames: Atrocities in Western Sudan, p. 6
135
Gettleman, Jeffrey. 2007. Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War. New York Times, September 3.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/03/world/africa/03cnd-
darfur.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Arab%20tribes%20battling%20in%20Darfur%20over%20the%20spoils%20of%20w
ar&st=cse
included heavy weapons.”136 The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur. It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region, as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform.
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping, aid,
and the overall process of climate governance. Presently, the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur, with approximately 4.7 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid.137 Also, despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front, they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance.138 Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur, its influence on the current
situation has been minimal. The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance.
136
Gettleman, Jeffrey. 2007. Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force. New York Times ,October 1.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/01/world/africa/01darfur.html?_r=1&scp=5&sq=African%20Union%20fighting%
20in%20Darfur&st=cse
137
Bayoumy, Yara. 2009. US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections. Reuters, May 7.
http://www.reuters.com/article/africaCrisis/idUSL7480189
138
See UNEP. 2007. Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment.
CHAPTER VI: IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA?
“Scientific evidence has…given us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes. And those impacts go far beyond the environmental. Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agenda…” These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007. 139 Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change.140 However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda? Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis? It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation, for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance.
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US, the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security. Acts of Terrorism141 are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century. In fact, they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th century for example, the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed.142 Today however, the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP, United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security, UN Security Council 5663rd meeting, 17 April 2007.
140
Example, UN General Assembly Resolution 44/206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change.
141
See Appendix 7
142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably. Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year, the year 2007, saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack. 143 This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism, as a threat to global security. This begs the
question; has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner? Or, has the issue of climate change
become so important, that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism?
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that “agreements, even
when implemented, will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to address….Global warming will challenge the international community.” This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future. But, is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security? 144
E. Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases; the more likely they would become targets of terrorism. She says
quote “destruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths, property damage, political
chaos, and other adverse effects.”145 Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism. In the first case, the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7
144
K. Campbell et al. 2007. The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change, The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, p. 17
145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population. While in the second case, the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects.
Since the attacks of September 11, the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before. This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before. Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change, the
resulting effects (drought, famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions.146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism. For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
“Environmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could, especially if we acknowledge that the social, political,
economic, and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
life.”147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression. What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world. Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid, p. 18
147
Ibid, p. 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse, while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis. Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis. While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond, the current financial crisis, has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace. According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance, “the financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean power.”148 This
begs the question, is climate change being trumped by the current crisis? And if so, what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance?
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis.
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008. The bill proposed to cap U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices. However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis, within days of the bill being presented, Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship. 149 Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G, the recent crisis has created a “politics of
distraction” whereby “People are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the media.”150
148
Walsh, Bryan. 2008. Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy? Time, October 7.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1847409,00.html
149
Nordhaus, Ted. and Michael Shellenberger. 2008. The Green Bubble Bursts. Los Angeles Times, September 30
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep30,0,5840948.story
150
Rice-Oxley, Mark. 2008. Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum. The Christian Science Monitor,
November 18. http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/11/13/financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum/
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits, this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Additionally, with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies, the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push.
This has serious implications for climate change legislation. Says Wiley Barbour, founder of the
American Carbon Registry, “If this crisis consumes all of our attention, it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passed.”151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is “undeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiations….if we go to citizens under the current circumstances...and say I‟m increasing your
tax burden…to pay for climate policy that might not go down very well.”152
151
Walsh, Bryan. 2008. Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy? Time, October 7.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1847409,00.html
152
Rice-Oxley, Mark. 2008. Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum. The Christian Science Monitor,
November 18. http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/11/13/financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum/
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security.
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence, there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions. As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue. In the current international environment, efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon, especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis. However, as climate change continues to take place, and its effects
continue to expand globally, this view maybe changed in the future.
In the case of Darfur, resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process. Additionally, those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests.
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region, peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance, because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts, but also because of its impact on future security.
Additionally, any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future.

Overall, this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security. Rather, what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research. Some examples include.
1. How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers?
In other words, how will relations among these states be affected by climate change?
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region.
2. What role can adaptation technology play, in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment?
3. What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy?
APPENDICES
Appendix 1: The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
http://www.rightsmap.com/html/sudmap1.html
154
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L03772791.htm
Appendix 2: Ethnicity in Darfur
Source: understandingsudan.org
Appendix 3: Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source: UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment: Sudan

http://postconflict.unep.ch/sudanreport/sudan_website/index_maps.php?docid=981#anc981
Appendix 4: The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source: UNEP
Appendix 5: Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source: UNEP
Appendix 6: Migration routes used in Darfur
Source: UNEP
Appendix 7: Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide: 1921-October 2007
Source: http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/globalterrorism1.html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities,
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses). Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists, red identifies all other strikes
1. 13 Dec 1921: bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)

2. 16 Apr 1925: bombing of cathedral in Sophia, Bulgaria (160)
3. 18 May 1973: mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner, Siberia (100)
4. 4 Dec 1977: crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5. 20 Aug 1978: arson of theater in Abadan, Iran (477)
6. 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979: hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7. 23 Sep 1983: crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8. 23 Oct 1983: truck bombings of U.S. Marine and French barracks, Beirut, Lebanon (301)
9. 14 May 1985: armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka (150)
10. 23 Jun 1985: mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland, and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11. 18 Apr 1987: roadway ambush near Alut Oya, Sri Lanka (127)
12. 21 Apr 1987: bombing of bus depot in Columbo, Sri Lanka (106)
13. 29 Nov 1987: mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14. 21 Dec 1988: mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie, Scotland (270)
15. 19 Sep 1989: mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma, Niger (171)
16. 27 Nov 1989: mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota, Columbia (110)
17. 3 Aug 1990: armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy, Sri Lanka (140)
18. 13 Aug 1990: armed attack at mosque in Eravur, Sri Lanka (122)
19. 2 Oct 1990: crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou, PRC (132)
20. 12 Mar 1993: 15 bombings in Bombay, India (317)
21. 22 Sep 1993: crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi, Georgia (106)
22. 19 Apr 1995: truck bombing of federal building, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA (169)
23. 14-19 June 1996: hostage taking in Budennovsk, Russia, and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24. 23 Nov 1996: crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25. 29 Aug 1997: attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais, Algeria (238)
26. 22 Sep 1997: attack at Ben Talha, Algeria (277)
27. 30 Dec 1997: attack at Ami Moussa, Algeria (272)
28. 4 Jan 1998: attacks at Had Chekala, Remka, and Ain Tarik, Algeria (172)
29. 11 Jan 1998: attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed, Algeria (103)
30. 8 Aug 1998: truck bombings of U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Saalam,
Tanzania (303)
31. 13 Sep 1999: bombing of apartment building in Moscow, Russia (130)
32. 31 Oct 1999: intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts, USA, by pilot (217)
33. 10 Aug 2001: attack on train south of Luanda, Angola (152)
34. 11 Sep 2001: crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center, New York City, New
York, Pentagon in Alexandria, Virginia, and site in Pennsylvania, USA (2,993)
35. 12 Oct 2002: car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta, Indonesia (202)
36. 26 Oct 2002: hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow, Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37. 29 Aug 2003: car bombing outside mosque in Najaf, Iraq (125)
38. 1 Feb 2004: two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil, Iraq (109)
39. 21 Feb 2004: armed attack and arson at refugee camp, Uganda (239)
40. 27 Feb 2004: bombing and fire on ferry near Manila, Philippines (118)
41. 2 Mar 2004: multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala, Iraq (188)
42. 11 Mar 2004: bombings of four trains in Madrid, Spain (191)
43. 24 Jun 2004: multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44. 1-3 Sep 2004: hostage taking at school in Beslan, Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45. 28 Feb 2005: car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla, Iraq (135)
46. 14 Sep 2005: multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad, Iraq (182)
47. 5 Jan 2006: bombings in Karbala, Ramadi, and Baghdad, Iraq (124)
48. 11 Jul 2006: multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai, India (200)
49. 16 Oct 2006: truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana, Sri Lanka (103)
50. 23 Nov 2006: multiple car bombings in Baghdad, Iraq (202)
51. 22 Jan 2007: multiple bombings in Baghdad area, Iraq (101)
52. 3 Feb 2007: truck bombing in market place in Baghdad, Iraq (137)
53. 6 Mar 2007: two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims, Hilla, Iraq (137)
54. 27 Mar 2007: two truck bombings in Tal Afar, Iraq (152)
55. 18 Apr 2007: bombings in Baghdad, Iraq (193)
56. 3-10 Jul 2007: hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan
(102)
57. 7 Jul 2007: bombings in Baghdad and Armili, Iraq (182)
58. 14 Aug 2007: multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah, Iraq (520)
59. 18 Oct 2007: bombing of motorcade in Karachi, Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm. Robert Johnston155
155
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/globalterrorism1.html

Critically Assess Whether Climate Change Is Reshaping The Global Security Agenda

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CRITICALLY ASSESS WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS RESHAPING

THE GLOBAL SECURITY AGENDA: THE CASE OF DARFUR

Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste

Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste

Institute of International Relations

Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste

Keywords: Climate Change, Security, Darfur, Climate Governance

CHAPTER I: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................. 14

CHAPTER II:THE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION... ........ 20

CHAPTER III: THE CASE OF DARFUR ............................................................. 26

CHAPTER IV: CLIMATE GOVERNANCE ......................................................... 38

CHAPTER VI: IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY

APPENDIX TITLE PAGE

1 THE DARFUR REGION ........................................................................ 62

2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR ..................................................................... 63

3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 ..................................................... 64

4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN ........................... 65

5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR ................................... 66

6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR ........................................ 67

7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 2007...68

circle of the G8.

but also because of the dynamic nature of international security.

specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions:

 Will global security politics be affected by climate change?

 Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change?

extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change.

analysis of the effects of climate change on international security. 9 International security is in

individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with

of climate change and by extension security.

to energy security and food security will discussed.

presented so as to answer my research question.

International Institutions, Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete

solutions to the problems being experienced in the region.

one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977).

of individual or human security, or up to the level of international or global security.

signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate.21

threat will manifest itself is not yet clear.24

global security agenda.

economists and policy-makers in shaping a response.”31

climate change, security and conflict.

climate change. This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to

mitigate and adapt to changing climates.

adapt to the problem itself.36

The Drive for Resources: Energy Security

Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities

within and between nations?

security issue of climate change.

Africa, Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods.42 As such, if

persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity.

malnutrition which already exists in the region.

actually taking place? According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is „substantial evidence to

in turn cause group identity conflicts.”48

Climate change in Africa

resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought.

become more capable of transmitting malaria by 2080.53

contain conflict and by extension, mitigate against climate change.55

violent conflict will ensue; as in the case of Darfur.

The Ethnic Composition of Darfur

primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance.63

The Ecology of Darfur

the ecology of the region.65

five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees. 68 Specifically in

The History of Conflict: A Background to the Crisis in Darfur