Asia Telecom Bull & Bear Pit Cheap Phones vs. Costs: BI Outlook

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)
Overview > Industry Outlook >> Exhibit 1 of 24
Asia Telecom Bull & Bear Pit Cheap Phones vs. Costs: BI Outlook
11/23/2013
The BI Industry Outlook outlines the major themes and trends that are shaping the Asia-Pacific telecom industry. The Bull Case calls for lowcost smartphones to spur data traffic and for Korean carriers to cut marketing spending. Indian operators may also gain from higher rates and revenue following industry consolidation. The Bear Case says profits may be crimped by expensive network upgrades and spectrum auctions, driven by increased data usage.
Praveen Menon & John Butler Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries
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SK Telecom, KT Corp. Avoid Korean IPhone Price War: Bull Case
11/22/2013
South Korean telecoms are working to significantly boost profit this year by cutting handset subsidies and lowering contract discounts. Bulls contend that greater regulatory scrutiny following a competition probe may help these efforts withstand marquee product launches. KT Corp. slashed 3Q marketing expenses 23% yoy, while SK made a 20% reduction and LG Uplus cut by 2%. KT's "double data" promotion for LTE failed to prevent a decline in customers in 3Q.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: DOCC CF US000000002112319429 P7<GO> Praveen Menon & John Butler Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

China, India Smartphone Sales Doubling Spurs Data Use: Bull Case
10/10/2013
Smartphone shipments in China and India doubled yoy to 95.7 million in 2Q, according to IDC, fueled by sales of handsets costing less than $150 from the likes of Lenovo, Huawei and Coolpad. The surge may be a boon for mobile operators as it will probably lead to greater use of data services. Highly lucrative data accounts for less than 15% of mobile service revenue in China and India, vs. 47% in Japan, as users have previously struggled to afford devices.

India Voice Rates May Rise as Competition Tumbles: Bull Case
10/10/2013
Bharti Airtel, India's biggest wireless carrier, has said voice rates may rise for the next three to five years because of industry consolidation and reduced discounting. The company posted a 3.9% increase in average revenue per minute in the June quarter, while Reliance had a 4.5% gain, underscoring the rising pricing power. The largest Indian operators have an average revenue per minute of 73 U.S. cents, 30% below 2009 levels.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA 1090 |1099-2-Q-VALUE|Q12|||R1252,1247<GO> Praveen Menon & John Butler Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Chinese Telecoms Get Data Boost From Cheap Handsets: Bull Case
08/19/2013
Rising sales of low-cost smartphones in China may boost data traffic for wireless carriers, helping offset SMS and voice revenue declines. Total smartphone shipments may jump 30% in 2H, according to IDC, fueled by devices priced below $100, which accounted for 33% of 1H unit sales. Affordable data plans and tie-ups with popular services such as WeChat may also boost data use. China Mobile's 1H data revenue rose 62% yoy, while Unicom's 3G revenue jumped 52%.

Smartphone Surge Forces Asia Carriers to Buy Spectrum: Bear Case
10/10/2013
Bears contend that explosive growth in Asian smartphone sales may push operators into expensive purchases of spectrum and equipment to cope with a jump in data traffic. Carriers in India and Japan are already planning to buy spectrum as licenses expire, while operators in China, Korea and Australia intend to expand capacity using small cells and Wi-Fi offloading.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA COMT |2-2-A-VALUE|AL6|||L242,245,259,256,257<GO>

Korea Telcos Miss Out on 4G Boom Amid Price Scrutiny: Bear Case
08/19/2013
South Korea's telecoms regulator fined wireless operators for unfair marketing practices in July. In a bear case, greater scrutiny may prevent rate increases, particularly for 4G services. LG Uplus also said the fines could damp customer additions. Market leader SK Telecom scrapped a goal of boosting average revenue per user 8% by 4Q, in favor of a 4% increase for 2013. Uplus and KT have targeted 8% growth by 4Q. About 42% of Korean mobile users have 4G.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA 1090 |1099-2-Q-VALUE|Q12|||R1030,1035,1036<GO> Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Reliance Mobile-Data Rate Cut Stokes India Price War: Bear Case
07/19/2013
Reliance halved headline 3G data rates to $2 for 1GB, undercutting peers such as Bharti, Vodafone and Idea, which have already lowered prices on excess data usage by as much as 90%. Bears contend that a data price war will offset recent optimism surrounding voice price increases spurred by regulatory action having reduced competition. Ebitda margins for India's three largest carriers have fallen by as much as 10% since 2008. 3G penetration remains below 5%.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA COMT |2-2-A-VALUE|A5|||R135,164,186<GO> Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Spectrum Auctions, China 4G Lead Asia Telecom Themes: BI Outlook
11/23/2013
Major themes developing across Asian telecoms include increasingly expensive spectrum auctions, such as a Taiwanese sale that raised $4 billion, or 3.3x the reserve price. Chinese carriers are also preparing for the arrival of 4G licenses later this year by boosting capex plans. Data revenue in China jumped 55% in the first eight months of the year, as greater use of 3G handsets helped spur a 65% surge in data traffic.
Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries


Taiwan Raises $4 Billion in Spectrum Auction, Triple Reserve
10/31/2013
Taiwan raised $4 billion in a wireless spectrum auction, with aggregate receipts more than 3.3x the reserve prices recommended by the regulator. The landmark auction drew 393 rounds of bids, as unlike comparable sales it had no pre-defined end date. (It began Sept. 3.) Other recent Asia-Pacific auctions include one in South Korea that raised $2.2 billion and a Singapore sale that pulled in $300 million.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: DOCC CF US000000002111892640 P1<GO>

Chunghwa, Far Eastone Buy Most Spectrum in Taiwanese Auction
10/31/2013
Taiwan's incumbent mobile operators, led by Chunghwa and Far Eastone, snapped up 190 MHz of the 270 MHz of wireless spectrum sold in an auction. In the 1,800 MHz band preferred globally by LTE operators, Chunghwa got two blocks for a total price of $1.2 billion, or $0.99 per MHz-Pop. Far Eastone won two blocks for $0.89 and Taiwan Mobile added one block for $0.90. The average 1,800 MHz price of $0.93 was a sizeable premium to South Korea's $0.72 and Singapore's $0.25.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: DOCC CF US000000002111892640 P1<GO> Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telenor Predicts 50% Mobile Usage in Myanmar, Targets Payments
09/30/2013
Telenor expects mobile penetration in Myanmar to reach 50% in three years, according to Bloomberg News. That would provide 25 million new subscribers for new entrants, Telenor and Ooredoo, and the two existing operators. Telenor expects mobile payments to be a significant growth driver, given a lack of financial services. In Pakistan, 17% of Telenor customers use mobile payments, racking up $2.5 billion of cash transfers per year.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: NSN MTW0K46TTDYJ<GO>

China Unicoms 13.9% Sales Growth Leads Peers on Customer Gains
09/23/2013
China Unicom boosted revenue 13.9% ytd through August, outpacing a 5.7% gain for market leader China Mobile and an 11.4% increase for China Telecom, according to MIIT. The operator's customer number rose 19.2%, surpassing 16.5% growth for Telecom and 8.1% for Mobile. Mobile's revenue share has fallen by 150 bps to 53.4%. The company may stem the decline with the conversion of 2G customers to 3G, which has helped it account for 66% of China's new 3G subs.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: HTTP 3056804<GO>

China's 55% Surge in Mobile Data Sales Offsets Voice Slowdown
09/23/2013
Mobile data revenue at Chinese telecoms jumped 55% in the first eight months of the year, as increased use of 3G handsets helped spur a 65% surge in data traffic. Wireline internet revenue rose 7.1% because of greater broadband use. The data gain offset slower growth for voice, which still accounts for 47% of industry revenue. Total voice revenue rose just 0.9%, as mobile-voice growth slumped to 2.4%, half the year-earlier pace, and wireline voice declined 10.3%.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: HTTP 3056804<GO>

Asia Telecom Profits Seen Rising 22% on Data Usage: BI Outlook
10/10/2013
Asian telecom carriers may boost 3Q profits 22%, based on consensus, because of higher data use and lower discounts. DoCoMo's profit growth may be hampered by customer gains trailing competitors KDDI and Softbank. Indian telecoms may win further increases in voice rates as reduced discounting cycles through their subscriber base. The carriers have warned that inflation may damp earnings. Korean operators may cut marketing spending on fears about regulatory scrutiny.

IPhone Subsidies, Data Use in Focus for 3Q Asia Telecom Earnings
10/03/2013
Asia telecom earnings start with Singapore's M1 on Oct. 14 and end in midNovember with the Korean carriers. Investors may focus on marketing initiatives and subsidy models for Apple's new iPhones, particularly in Japan, where market leader NTT DoCoMo will carry the devices for the first time. Korean telcos will be scrutinized over 3Q marketing costs. Indian telecoms may only report modest progress in voice pricing on seasonal weakness.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA EARNP<GO>

DoCoMo IPhones May Help Close 50% User-Gain Gap vs. Peers in 3Q
10/03/2013
NTT DoCoMo's agreement to carry Apple's new iPhones in Japan may end a dismal run of data-hungry customer losses, which has seen its market share fall by 7% since 2007. DoCoMo, still Japan's largest carrier, added 215,500 customers in July and August, trailing Softbank's 504,800 and KDDI's 434,400. The company's Ebitda may rise 2% in the year ending March, compared to a 60% jump for Softbank, including Sprint, and a 24% gain for KDDI, including JCOM, based on consensus.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA EARNP |1229-3-A-VALUE-7682||#7682|LCL<GO> Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Korean Telecoms 3Q Profit Growth May Quicken on Marketing Cuts
10/03/2013
Korean telecoms' earning growth may accelerate in 3Q from 2Q after government penalties handed out in July over unfair pricing policies. LG Uplus's 3Q Ebitda may jump 52%, while SK Telecom's may rise 22%, according to consensus estimates. KT Corp. may only post a 10% gain because of a greater reliance on fixed-line services. The anticipated growth may spur industry efforts to pare marketing costs for new subscribers, while squeezing more data revenue from 4G users.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: EQS /SAMPLE 10701249 /RESULTS<GO> Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Idea, Reliance May Lead India Telecom Profit Gain on Voice Rates
10/03/2013
Idea boosted realized rates per minute (ARPM) 6.1% in the June quarter, the most in India. ARPM rose 4.5% at Reliance and 4% at Bharti after several flat quarters. Industrywide consolidation has let carriers raise calling rates and cut discounts, such as free voice minutes. For the year ending March, Ebitda may rise 37% at Idea, 29% at Reliance and 11% at Bharti, according to consensus.


Asia's Largest Telecom Carriers Trade at 20% Premium: BI Outlook
10/18/2013
Bloomberg Industries' Asian telecom carriers peer group rose 29% ytd, outperforming the MSCI Asia Pacific Index's 9% gain. The largest Asian operators trade 20% above long-term EV/Ebitda averages, as the bulk of network-related spending concludes. Chinese carriers have the biggest price gap to analyst consensus targets, as handset subsidies erode margins. Japanese stocks have been the best performers this year, boosted by Abenomics.


Chinese Telecoms Trade at Lowest Multiples Among Asia Operators
09/18/2013
The Bloomberg Industries large-cap Asia telecom carriers peer group (BILTELVP) has rebounded 5% in the past month and trades at a median EV/Ebitda of 5.8x 2014 consensus Ebitda. The highest-valued carriers include Singapore's SingTel, Malaysia's Maxis and Digi.com, Taiwan Mobile and AIS (Thailand). Chinese telecoms trade below 4.0x as higher handset subsidies to lure 3G customers amid intense price competition may continue to crimp profits.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA COMPS |113-3-RATIO-8159||#8159|USD<GO>

Asian Telecoms Trade 20% Above Long-Term EV/Ebitda, Led by KDDI
10/18/2013
Asia-Pacific telecom carriers trade at 7.6x trailing 12month EV/Ebitda, 20% above the long-term average of 6.4x. Japan-based KDDI and Singapore's M1 trade at the highest premiums to long-term valuations. Indian carrier Bharti is trading 14% below its average, as a result of falling profitability at African operations. China Mobile trades 42% below its average as over-thetop calling and messaging applications caused voice revenue declines.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: EQS /SAMPLE 10522039 /RESULTS<GO>

Japan Telecoms Outperform on Abenomics; Chinese Trail Peers
10/18/2013
Japanese telecoms have reacted favorably to the new government's growth policies and significantly outperformed other Asian carriers ytd, surging 81% on average vs. the wider group's 25% gain. Leading the increases are Softbank, up 135% and KDDI, up 80%. Chinese carriers trail, with China Mobile and China Telecom posting negative returns ytd. Korean operators trade furthest from price targets, with an average 17% gap between share price and consensus target.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA MARKETS<GO>

KDDI, Softbank, SK Telecom Lead Asian Operators' Analyst Ratings
08/21/2013
The most profitable Japanese telecoms have some of the highest analyst ratings for Asian operators, while average price targets are rising slightly. KDDI, Softbank and Korea-based SK Telecom all score at least 4.5 (1 = sell, 3 = hold, 5 = buy), and are rated buy by more than 80% of analysts covering them. India's Bharti Airtel has the largest gap to consensus target price at 22%, followed by SK and Korea-based KT at about 20%.
For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA RATI<GO>

Asia Telecom Bull & Bear Pit Cheap Phones vs. Costs: BI Outlook

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Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Overview > Industry Outlook >> Exhibit 1 of 24

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

SK Telecom, KT Corp. Avoid Korean IPhone Price War: Bull Case

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

India Voice Rates May Rise as Competition Tumbles: Bull Case

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Smartphone Surge Forces Asia Carriers to Buy Spectrum: Bear Case

For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA COMT |2-2-A-VALUE|AL6|||L242,245,259,256,257<GO>

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Spectrum Auctions, China 4G Lead Asia Telecom Themes: BI Outlook

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Taiwan Raises $4 Billion in Spectrum Auction, Triple Reserve

For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: DOCC CF US000000002111892640 P1<GO>

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Chunghwa, Far Eastone Buy Most Spectrum in Taiwanese Auction

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telenor Predicts 50% Mobile Usage in Myanmar, Targets Payments

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

China Unicoms 13.9% Sales Growth Leads Peers on Customer Gains

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

China's 55% Surge in Mobile Data Sales Offsets Voice Slowdown

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Asia Telecom Profits Seen Rising 22% on Data Usage: BI Outlook

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

IPhone Subsidies, Data Use in Focus for 3Q Asia Telecom Earnings

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Korean Telecoms 3Q Profit Growth May Quicken on Marketing Cuts

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Asia's Largest Telecom Carriers Trade at 20% Premium: BI Outlook

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Chinese Telecoms Trade at Lowest Multiples Among Asia Operators

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Asian Telecoms Trade 20% Above Long-Term EV/Ebitda, Led by KDDI

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

Japan Telecoms Outperform on Abenomics; Chinese Trail Peers

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

Telecom Carriers, Asia-Pacific (BI TELCA)

KDDI, Softbank, SK Telecom Lead Asian Operators' Analyst Ratings

For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run: BI TELCA RATI<GO>

Telecom Carriers Team --Bloomberg Industries

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