Basic Concepts of Probability

A probability is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur. Probabilities can be expressed as proportions that range from 0 to 1, and they can also be expressed as percentages ranging from 0% to 100%. A probability of 0 indicates that there is no chance that a particular event will occur, whereas a probability of 1 indicates that an event is certain to occur. A probability of 0.45 (45%) indicates that there are 45 chances out of 100 of the event occurring. The concept of probability can be illustrated in the context of a study of obesity in children 5-10 years of age who are seeking medical care at a particular pediatric practice. The population (sampling frame) includes all children who were seen in the practice in the past 12 months and is summarized below. Age (years) 5 Boys Girls Totals 432 408 840 6 379 513 892 7 501 412 913 8 410 436 846 9 420 461 881 10 418 500 918 Total 2,560 2,730 5,290

We hear and make statements that involve probability all the time. For example: It will probably rain tomorrow I am certain that the sun will rise tomorrow morning. The South African cricket team is the favourite to win the world cup. Probability involves making predictions about things that may or may not happen. Probability is used by scientists, economists, gamblers etc. Terms used in the study of probability Experiment: The work or activity that generates the results to be studied. Outcome: The result of an experiment. For example: Experiment Toss a coin Roll a die Football game Outcome {head, tail} {1,2,3,4,5,6} {win, lose, draw}

Sample space or Outcome space: All possible outcomes.For example,when a die is rolled the sample space will be {1,2,3,4,5,6},and sample space is usually denoted by the symbol S. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6 }, n(s) = number of outcomes = 6 Event: A collection of outcomes from a specified sample space.For example when we rolled a die,we could define an event A as odd numbers A = {1,3,5 }, n(A) = number of outcomes = 3 Pr(Event): The probability of an event occuring.

Probabilities can be expressed as a fraction, as a decimal, or as a percentage. In the above example, if we want to calculate the probability of getting an odd number, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6 } Total number of possible outcomes, n(S) = 6 A = { 1,3,5 } Number of successful outcomes, n(A) = 3

The terms we use to describe the chances. Impossible : Impossible events have probabilities of zero.

Unlikely : Very unlikely events have probabilities close to zero. Even chance : Even chance events have probabilities close to 0.5 Likely : Very likely events have probabilities close to one. Certain : Certain events have probabilities of one.

The complement: The complement of an event is the event which does not happen. For example the complement of success is failure and the compliment of failure is success. If the event is A, the complement of A is written as A' . If I rolled a six sided die, what is the probability of : (a) getting a 6 (b) not getting a 6 S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } these are the possible outcomes. Number of possible outcomes, n(S) = 6 A = getting a 6, number of successful outcomes n(A) = 1

Combined events or Multiple events: When two experiments are conducted together and the results are considered as a combined event When we are dealing with multiple events it is important to make a systematic list of all outcomes. Lattice diagrams or tree diagrams can also be used to list the outcomes. Let's find the sample space for tossing a coin and rolling a die. The outcomes for tossing a coin are {Head (H), Tail (T) } The outcomes for rolling a die are { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } The possible outcomes for the combined event are: {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6} There are 12 possible outcomes.

We can use a tree diagram to list the sample space.

We can use a lattice diagram to show the sample space.

H Head (1,H) (2,H) (3,H) (4,H) (5,H) (6,H)

T (1,T) Tail 1 2 3 4 5 6 (2,T) (3,T) (4,T) (5,T) (6,T)

Rolling a die

Example
A jar contains 60 equal sized marbles, of which 35 are white and 25 are black. You take one from the jar without looking. (a) List all of the possible outcomes. (b) What is the probability of picking a black marble? (c) What is the probability of picking a red marble? (a) There are two possible outcomes.The marble could be either black or white. (b) The probability of picking a black marble is 25/60.(There are 25 black marbles in the jar.The number of successful outcomes are 25. There are 60 marbles in the jar, so the number of possible outcomes are60.) (c) The probability of picking a red marble is 0.(The number of red marbles in the jar is zero, so the probability is zero.)

Have a Go
Problem 1 What is the probability that a card drawn from a pack of cards(normal playing cards) will be: (a) a red card (b) a picture card (c)an ace

Practice Questions
Question 1 John bought 10 tickets in a raffle in which 500 tickets were sold. What is the probability that he will win the prize? Give your answer in decimals.

Question 2 A small packet of smarties has 5 yellow, 6 red, 5 green, 6 brown and 3 blue smarties. What is the probability of picking a blue one? Give your answer as a percentage.

Solution 1
What is the probability that a card drawn from a pack of cards(normal playing cards) will be: (a) a red card (b) a picture card (c)an ace In a normal pack of cards there are 52 cards, which consits of 4 suites.

Clubs

Hearts

Spades

Diamonds

In one suite there are 13 cards.They are:

A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K Hearts and Diamonds are red.There are 13 2 = 26 red cards. Clubs and Spades are black. A, K, Q, J, are picture cards. In a cards pack there are 4 4 =16 picture cards. There are 4 aces.