A Comparative Analysis of the Declining Population of Japan and Ukraine

Tan, Chechen M. 2013-79236

Introduction The worlds population continues to amplify, but this boom is not present in all countries. Actually, some countries are experiencing a large-scale population decline. Through time, their population continues to decrease due to many factors such as substantial emigration, diseases that plague the countries, famine, and war. In this paper, we will probe this phenomenon using the current situation in Japan and Ukraine as examples. We will look at the factors that cause the depopulation and the rates at which they contribute to the population decline. We will also discuss how the people and government of these countries react to the issue of population decline and the measures and policies they employ to regulate their population.

Rates and Statistics First of all, lets look at the statistics and different rates regarding population growth in both countries. Table 1. Statistics of the two countries, Japan and Ukraine, for the year 2012 as shown by the data in http://www.indexmundi.com/. Statistics Population Forecast 2050 Population Percent Decrease Japan 127,368,088 95,152,000 25.3 % Ukraine 44,854,065 35,273,000 23.1% 15.5%

2012 Population over age 23.9 % 65 Rate of Natural Increase Fertility Rate Net Migration Rate -2.42 1.39 children born/woman

-6.08 1.5 migrant(s)/1,000

0 migrant(s)/1,000 -0.08 population population 9.15 deaths/1,000 population 8.39 births/1,000 population -0.077 % 289 83.91 years 80.57 years 87.43 years

Death Rate Birth Rate Growth Rate Doubling Time Total Population Male Female

15 deaths/1,000 population 9.59 births/1,000 population -0.625% Negative population growth 68.74 years 63.07 years 74.77 years

Japan has been aging rapidly over the last 20 years. The number of people over age 65 doubled from 7.1 percent of the total population in 1970, to 14.1 percent in 1994, according to Japan's statistics bureau. Today the country has the world's largest concentration of elderly at 23 percent of the total population. This, combined with a low fertility rate and an excess of emigrants, make Japan the world's fastest-shrinking country. By 2050, its population is expected to have declined by one-fourth from its current level. (Wong, 2010) Ukraine, Europe's fastest-shrinking country, has seen its population decrease steadily since 1993, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to Kyiv Post. The country's death rate, 15.9 per 1,000 people, exceeds the birth rate, 10.4 per 1,000, according to the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine. The population also faces an above-average rate of HIV in both men and women. Over the next 40 years, the population is expected to contract by 23.1 percent. (Wong, 2010) Next, well look at the age distribution per gender for both countries.

Figure 1. Distribution of population across ages and sexes in Japan for the year 2012. Image taken from: http://www.indexmundi.com/japan/age_structure.html.

We can see in figure 1 that the age group with the greatest number of people is the age group of 60 to 64 years old for both male and females. Also, the graph shows that the older population overpowers the younger population of Japan. Male and female population almost have the same population in every age group.

Figure 2. Distribution of population across sexes and ages in Ukraine for the year 2012. Image taken from: http://www.indexmundi.com/ukraine/age_structure.html. Figure 2 shows that middle aged up to old aged population are more than that of the younger population. Also, the overall female population is greater than the overall male population.

Causes of the population decline in Japan One reason for the population decline of Japan is that many Japanese in their 20s are not getting married and having children because of the nationwide struggle of getting regular and stable jobs. Part time workers, on the other hand, have low incomes and are deemed undependable. Therefore, they find themselves uncertain when making the decision whether to raise a family or not. Also, due to the high cost of living in Japan, married couples find having children as a burden, or a luxury that they cannot afford. In a society like Japan where childbirth out of wedlock is stigmatized, the decision not to marry also normally means that one has chosen not to have children. (Traphagan, 2013) Expanding educational and economic access for women leads to delay of having children. An increasing number of women tends to choose longer working hours and having a career instead of having children. Delayed marriage is also attributed by Japans population decline because older women will have difficulties in bearing and giving birth to children. Trends of industrialization and modernization breaks down the traditional family structures and lifestyles because of the influence of Western Ideals such as individual gain and happiness. Also, the Japanese government provides some of the most generous benefits to the elderly while moderately giving little support for the families and the lowest benefits to children in the industrialized world. The economic spending on families in GDP is 0.5%, relatively lower than Denmark, Norway and Hungary having 4%, 3% and 2.5% respectively which provides generous child care benefits. Another cause of Japans population decline is its strict immigration laws and reluctance to accept immigrants because they favor a unique and homogenous society. The latest devastating event that happened on March 2011 which was a tsunami and an earthquake that killed 19,000 people at the time and it is extensively acknowledged that it will have a secondary effect of dropping the overall life expectancy.

Figure 3. Birth Rate, Death Rate, and Population growth rate of Japan from the year 2000 up to the year 2012. Data taken from: http://www.indexmundi.com Figure 3 shows the growth rate, birth rate and death rate in Japan. The blue line illustrates that the birth rate was stable up to 2002, but it started to decline gradually and by the year 2006, it dropped abruptly from 9.37% to 8.1%, and it still continued to decline until 2011. The orange line shows the death rate which was increased continuously from 2000 up to 2011, but dropped slightly during the year 2012. The gray line shows us that the growth rate of Japan was already low and was continuously decreasing. It became negative after the year 2006. By 2011, it reached its lowest growth rate of -0.28%. The population growth rate started to increase soon after 2011 but remained negative in 2012.

Causes of the population decline in Ukraine Unnatural causes of death such as infectious and parasitic diseases, tuberculosis and many more encouraged high death rates of children and teenagers. Ukraines threat of population decline is mainly the result of environmental pollution, poor diets, widespread smoking, extensive alcoholism, and the countrys deteriorating medical healthcare. Another cause of Ukraines population decline is Migration. According to Ukraines official statistics, over the years 1994 to 2004, the difference between the people who left Ukraine and the people who moved in amounted to 1.22 million. Ukraine automatically loses at least 2 to 3 million people due to labor migration unless Ukrainians who works abroad return home. Growing desires among the young population for migration to have a better life also threatens the growth of the population. Lack of job opportunities, low chances of finding decent jobs and the low possibility of owning an apartment results in the declination of hope of the population, especially the youth. Housing issue is the main reason that hinders Ukrainians to marry and it facilitates divorces in young families according to sociological surveys. Ukraine used to have the fastest population growth rates in Europe due to the high birth rates. This was before the Communists launched their socio-economic experiments but it took a dramatic change during the second quarter of the 20th century. The people had to work more during the period of industrialization; therefore, they had no energy when they get home for reproduction. Another factor was the famine that occurred during 1932 up to 1933 which prevented the rise of birth rates in the country. But the major factors that caused the dramatic decrease of the birth rates of the country were the after effects of the World War II. It brought the age and gender distribution of the citizens to an imbalance. Also, when the people were finally freed from the ban of leaving their villages without proper consent from their local authorities, the people in rural areas fled in massive numbers to the cities and industrial areas where in the standards of living are higher. Therefore, people were further hindered from raising a family.

Figure 4. Birth Rate, Death Rate, and Population growth rate of Ukraine from the year 2000 up to the year 2012. Data taken from: http://www.indexmundi.com Figure 4 shows the growth rate, birth rate and death rate in Ukraine. The blue line shows the birth rate was stable until it suddenly dropped during the year 2006, but it increased by a relatively small amount in the year 2007. It then continued to gradually decline up to the year 2012. The death rate, illustrated as the orange line, shows an almost similar behavior with the birth rate. The gray line shows that the population growth rate of Ukraine in the beginning of the 21st century was already negative but is gradually increasing. It reached its highest growth rate in 2006 with a value of -0.6% but was still relatively low. After its highest rate, it started to decline but slowly increased after 2007.

Comparison of the state of Japan and Ukraine Japan is a well-known developed country that has consistently placed among the top 10 in the Human Development Index (HDI). Industrialization and the high cost of living in this developed country makes it more difficult for young couples to provide for a child thus leading them to a decision of not having children at all. Also because of industrialization and modernization, education and more economic access for women are available giving them longer working hours and leaving them no time to have a child. Moreover, most women in Japan only consider marriage by the time they are old and are unable to work as efficiently as they did when they were younger, and because of their age, by the time they get married, most of them are already unable to bear children. The Japanese also give much importance to their religion, specifically when it comes to matters on marriage. They strongly believe that birth outside marriage is against their religion. This means that the busy people of Japan will always have to marry before even thinking of having a child. Another value possessed by the Japanese is preserving their unique and homogenous population. They are against having immigrants in their homeland. Great events also contribute to Japans population decline. Some examples are the destructive tsunami and the earthquake that struck Japan last 2011. The disastrous events killed thousands of people which had a major impact on the countrys life expectancy for many years to come. Ukraine on the other hand, is a developing country, or rather a less-developed country. Ukraine has a poor economy which means lack of job opportunities and a small number of available decent and permanent jobs for its citizens. Due to the difficult situation in terms of making a living, Ukrainians decide to avoid marriage because it will be difficult for them to provide for the family that they will have to raise. Furthermore, Ukraine is currently entering their phase of industrialization. To earn more, people must work more. As a result, they are left with little time and energy to reproduce. Also, because of their poor economy and rare job opportunities, Ukrainians out-migrate because for labor opportunities and for the chance of having a better life. Most of those who work abroad decide not to return home because of the difficulty of living in their homeland. Also, a major event had worsened the already bad state of Ukraines population growth. The famine and the aftermath of the world war prevented the rise of birth rates and hindered them from raising families. Even though Japan is a well-developed country and Ukraine is a less-developed one, they both experience a decline in their population. Japans high cost of living and Ukraines difficulty in making a living are the main factors that hinder the citizens of both countries from having children and raising a family. Japans high industrialization leaves women with longer hours of

work while industrialization in Ukraine keeps them to work more for them to be able to earn sufficiently. Both of these situations result to less time and energy for reproduction. Moreover, migration is also a factor for both countries population decline. Japan doesnt want to accept immigrants to preserve their homogeneity while Ukrainians out-migrate because of the difficulty in living. Finally, great events like tsunamis and earthquakes in Japan, and famines and wars in Ukraine really shook the growth of their population.

Child Birth and Efforts to Increase the Population in Japan To combat the population decline in Japan, the government funded a few programs to sustain and assist families throughout the country. Families received $100 a month from the government for the first and second child up to age 2 and another $100 for each subsequent child as part of an effort to boost fertility rates. The government will make prenatal check-ups free as part of the plan. Also, the Japanese central government started to cover the cost of childbirth with a payment of $4,200 to help increase Japans dropping birth rate last 2009. Childbirth before was not covered by any medical insurance because it was not regarded as an illness. There are 500 medical institutions available for women to visit who have difficulty in getting pregnant. Fertility treatments and surrogate mothers are also an option for Japanese women. The Japanese government is alarmed in their declining population and the growing gray population because it will affect their economy due to lack of manpower among the young people.

Child Birth and Efforts to Increase the Population in Ukraine Orange revolution, a series of protests and political events that took place in Ukraine from late November 2004 to January 2005, created a new government that helped improve the demographic scenes that included financial aids to mothers and specifically increased childbirth benefits, lump sum payments for children born and on-going assistance to help cover the cost of raising children.

Furthermore, the Ukrainian authorities questioned their weak ability yet available policies in the demographic issues to support birth rate and maternity. Number of people entitled to child birth and care benefits were restricted by the new government and also cut the term of maternity leave and raised the retirement age for women. The Ukrainian government is alarmed for their declining population because if they will not be able to cope up with this problem, they will no longer be able to solve the demographic problem with their own resources alone.

Conclusion In conclusion, the key factor that fuels the population decline is the countrys economy. It may be very good to the point that it demands a higher cost of living, or really bad that it makes citizens see raising children unaffordable. But there are cases that this does not apply, such as in the Philippines. Our country isnt in a very good position in terms of economics but our population is growing, fast. There are more factors that control the growth of a countrys population such as the behavior of the people, as seen in the working ethics of the Japanese and the strong desire of some Ukrainians for greener pastures, and many more. But even though its hard to actually hard for the government to control its countries population growth, it remains to be a critical factor in determining the future of the country so a lot of effort must be done to improve the growth of its population. A lot of things are being done to counter the population decline in Japan and Ukraine, but most of them are directed to childbirth and are limited to the infancy of childhood period. This alone would probably be not enough, after all, the future of the children are what really worry the minds of the citizens.

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Definition of Terms Birth rate is the total number of births per 1000 of a population each year. Death rate is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Death rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1000 individuals per year. Developed country or "more developed country" (MDC), is a sovereign state that has a highly developed economy and advanced technological infrastructure relative to other less developed nations. Developing country, also called a less-developed country (LDC), is a nation with a low living standard, underdeveloped industrial base, and low Human Development Index (HDI) relative to other countries. Doubling time is the period of time required for a quantity to double in size or value. Fertility Rate- the ratio of live births in an area to the population; per 1000 population per year Growth rate is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite statistic of life expectancy, education, and income indices used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. Industrialization is the large-scale introduction of manufacturing, advanced technical enterprises, and other productive economic activity into an area, society, country, etc. Net migration rate- the difference of immigrants and emigrants of an area in a period of time, divided (usually) per 1,000 inhabitants (considered on midterm population). A positive value represents more people entering the country than leaving it, while a negative value mean more people leaving than entering it.

Population Decline or depopulation is the great reduction in a human population. Rate of natural increase (RNI) is the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate of a population.