Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia examined and Using a Porcess-Based Modeling Approach By Grant Gallinger IntroductionDengue virus

is a very harmful virus passed through female mosquitos to humans. About 50100 million people each year are affected by the virus. The dengue virus is not regularly found in Australia but in all parts of the world. Around 0! of the world live is Dengue-endemic regions. "n #00$-#00% one of the largest Dengue outbrea&s occurred since 1%50. 'ne thousand people were infected with the deadly virus. The dengue virus has been occurring in all parts of the world for years and has infected and even &illed many people. The researchers feel that if they could time when the virus is going to spread by &nowing when it will occur( they will be able to harness its powers and save lives. The researchers said )*nderstanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range( seasonality( and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaption strategies to minimi+e future disease burden in Australia., -esearchers want to see the relationship between the climate change and the number and magnitude of dengue outbrea&s. The information will be gathered at .airn( /ueensland( which is where the outbrea& occurred. The researchers will find out in what times of the year and seasons is the outbrea& of dengue the worst and most harmful. They predict these outbrea&s through a system model called D012i3. This system through climate change(local meteorologic( entomological( and demographic data. This topic is of ma4or importance because it has the potential to save lives. "f we could figure when the virus is most easily spread( the people could be treated quic&er or even prevent the virus from infecting them in the first place. This study has the potential to save hundreds and thousands of lives. The researcher5s were trying to prove that the system D012i3 would be able to predict future outbrea&s of dengue long before the outbrea& occurred. The had obtained this prediction of precious

studies and therefore had high hopes going into the the study. Materials and MethodsThis type of research did not involve a lot of in the lab studies. "t was mostly the collection of the number of dengue cases reported each month and the climate change everyday. 6rom this information graphs and charts were made to map the occurrence of the outbrea&. They used a lot of local research building to find out the temperature changes and population changes. They pulled their records to find the information. Also to verify that the patient had dengue they set a standard that the patient had to have a fever( headache( rash( arthralgia( and nausea. The D012i3 was used to to see the relationship between the climate and dengue outbrea& in .airns. esults"n .airns( #(7%0 dengue cases were reported during 1%%0-#00% and also 85 imported cases recorded since 1%%$. The studies showed that the outbrea& of dengue was most common through the months of 9anuary and ending in 9une. "n the wet season the number of dengue cases decreased. Although the increase was not outstanding showing that seasonal change was not the ma4or issue. D0 was able to predict $ of the 1: reported cases in this time period. Also of the time period( D012i3 was able to predict two of them. The scientist were surprised by the practically random occurrence of the dengue outbrea& in .airn. They predicted that with the climate change would show specific times when the dengue outbrea&s would occur. D012i3 was able to predict most of the outbrea&s but not as specific as the researchers hoped. DiscussionThe information gathered supported D012i3;s predicting abilities to a point. D012i3 predicted the largest outbrea& between #00$-#00% but missed the outbrea& from #00:-#00 . 'verall the study was a success and the information gathered proved the ma4or outbrea&s in this

hypothesis. "n the study the researchers in this study were able to gather all of the information that they needed for this specific study. The limitations of the study were some cases of dengue could have been counted as dengue when they weren5t and other cases when they were counted as not having dengue when they did. Dengue is a virus can loo& li&e the common cold or other small cold. "n Australia( not everyone has access to hopitals because of lac& of money or transportation. 2ome cases dengue could not have been reported to a hospital and therefore not reported to D012i3. Also the measurements of temperature were not completely accurate.

<ibliography 3elanie <annister-Tyrrell( .raig =illiams( 2cott A. -itchie( >ina -au( 9anette ?indesay( >eoff 3ercer and David @arley, December 1:( #01:()weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia eAamined using a process-based modeling approach., httpBCCwww.a4tmh.orgCcontentC$$C1C75.fullD sidEd dc5a$%- a8b- 0:5-b%b1-