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Variance
Expected squared deviation from the mean
( ) ( ) | | ( ) | | ( ) | |
( ) | | { }
2
2 2 2
...
2 2 1 1
X E X E
X E
n
x
n
p X E x p X E x p X Var
=
+ + + =
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Standard deviation
Square root of the variance
Same units as X
SD X ( ) = Var X ( )
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Variance and SD as measures of risk
Var and SD measure the expected dispersion
between outcomes and the average outcome
Higher when
Outcomes can deviate a lot from expected value
Probability of extreme deviations is high
Lets think about whether these are good
measures of risk
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Example
Investment A
$0 with probability 2/3
$9M with probability 1/3
Investment B
$-5M with probability 0.2
$5M with probability 0.8
Which is the riskier investment?
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Example
Profit from Investment A
$0 with probability 2/3
$9M with probability 1/3
Profit from Investment B
$-5M with probability 0.2
$5M with probability 0.8
Mean = 3M
Variance = 18
2
Mean = 3M
Variance = 16
2
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Asymmetry
Var and SD potentially measure risk, but they
miss something:
Large losses are more risky than large gains
Extreme example
Worst case scenario
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Another way to quantify risk
Value at Risk (VaR)
Question:
What is the minimum loss under
exceptionally bad outcomes?
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Value at Risk (VaR)
Minimum loss in the bottom p% of outcomes
Focus on the left tail of the distribution
Usually 1% or 5% for a given time interval
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1%
2%
3%
5%
VaR at 10% is -4
7.5%
VaR at 1% is -10
VaR at 5% is -6
Profit -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
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Example
Profit from Investment A:
-$1M with probability 0.1%
$0 with probability 49.9%
$2 with probability 50%
Profit from Investment B:
-$1 with probability 20%
$1 with probability 80%
Which investment is riskier?
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Example
Profit from Investment A:
-$1M with probability 0.1%
$0 with probability 49.9%
$2 with probability 50%
Profit from Investment B:
-$1 with probability 20%
$1 with probability 80%
Which investment is riskier?
VaR at 1% = $0
VaR at 5% = $0
VaR at 10%= $0
VaR at 1% = -$1
VaR at 5% = -$1
VaR at 10%= -$1
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Mean-Variance Criterion
Balancing expected tendency and variance
aE(X)-bVar(X)
a>0, b>0
An investment in X might be preferred to Y if:
a[E(X)]-b[Var(X)] > a[E(Y)]-b[Var(Y)]
What does this say?
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Mean-Variance Criterion
Basis of Markowitzs (1950) portfolio theory
1990 Nobel Prize
Often used in practical applications
Prior to Markowitz, portfolios were chosen on
the basis of E(X) alone, without regard for
Var(X)!
We will study the properties of the mean-
variance criterion later in the course
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Review of concepts: An example
Random variable: damages from an automobile
accident
Possible Outcomes for Damages Probability
$0 0.50
$200 0.30
$1,000 0.10
$5,000 0.06
$10,000 0.04
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Expected value
Possible Outcomes for Damages Probability
$0 0.50
$200 0.30
$1,000 0.10
$5,000 0.06
$10,000 0.04
EV = .5(0) + .3(200) + .1(1,000)
+ .06(5,000) + .04(10,000)
= $860
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Variance
Possible Outcomes for Damages Probability
$0 0.50
$200 0.30
$1,000 0.10
$5,000 0.06
$10,000 0.04
Variance = .5(0-860)
2
+ .3(200-860)
2
+ .1(1,000-860)
2
+ .06(5,000-860)
2
+ .04(10,000-860)
2
= 4,872,400 ($
2
)
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Standard deviation
Possible Outcomes for Damages Probability
$0 0.50
$200 0.30
$1,000 0.10
$5,000 0.06
$10,000 0.04
SD = (Variance)
1/2
= (4,872,400)
1/2
= 2,207 ($)
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Practical concerns
Where do these probabilities come from?
We need a way to translate past observations
into probabilities
Statistics
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Summary of todays class
Inference based on samples averages can be
quite misleading
Need to account for risk
Probability theory allows us to model risks
A measure of a typical observation (mean)
Measures of expected dispersion (variance and SD)
(Imperfect) measures of risk
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