Math 1040 Project 3: Probability Distribution

Trip Affleck
Part I
number probability

1 0.35

2 0.25

Expected Value: 2.55
3 0.15

Standard Deviation:
1.627
4 0.1

5 0.05

6 0.1






0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1 2 3 4 5 6
Series1
Part II







Bin Frequency



1 0.3642



2 0.2301



3 0.1603



4 0.0862



5 0.0746



6 0.0846




Expected Value =2.5307


Standard Deviation =3.00285


0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1 2 3 4 5 6
Series1
Part III



















In parts IA and IB the charts look very similar. The expected values of 7 in the theoretic and 6.91
in the simulation reinforce how close the results in the two exercises. The frequency of rolling a 7, the
actual mean in the theoretic and nearly the same value in the simulation, are very close with .17 and .18
respectively. The histograms have the same shape, roof peak shape. The theoretic is much more even but
the simulation follows the same pattern. The standard deviations 3.52 (Part IA) and 2.58 (Part IB) show
that the simulated probability has a better chance of a roll closer to the mean.



0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
2 4 6 8 10 12
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

Number of Pips
Theoretical
Probability When
Rolling 2 Dice
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

Number of Pips
Simulated Probability
When Rolling 2 Dice

Part IIA: Survey the Class for Shared Birthdays
When surveyed, no members of the class shared the same birthday. The class size was 19. We
think this may be typical of such a small class size.

Part IIB: Simulation of Class Members Sharing a Birthday

Number of simulated classes = 20
Number of classes where birthdays are shared = 11
Probability of sharing a birthday = 11 / 20 = 0.55

Part IIC: Calculation of Theoretical Probability of Shared Birthday
For a class size of n students:

P(at least 2 share birthday) = 1 (365Pn) / 365) ; where n is the number of students
n = 19; P(at least 2 share birthday) = 1 - 0.6208 = 0.3792
n = 20; P(at least 2 share birthday) = 1 0.5886 = 0.4114



64 10 11 5 30 25 27 48 9 67 3 2 11 14 13 3 16 3 9 16
90 14 15 38 37 50 58 71 16 74 7 53 26 29 20 36 27 10 57 39
111 17 48 63 51 80 68 78 48 85 19 57 30 33 26 44 33 46 69 66
140 35 49 87 52 82 78 97 134 86 23 61 54 38 33 45 68 48 70 95
169 35 69 91 115 92 173 122 138 121 33 62 60 38 67 100 70 102 106 97
183 56 82 113 129 109 175 134 138 136 55 77 172 39 146 152 76 111 115 105
197 63 93 144 142 113 204 136 160 156 63 88 182 65 154 152 90 141 144 127
206 69 105 158 160 144 226 235 213 158 78 98 205 74 164 163 107 170 161 176
215 118 126 194 175 164 226 247 243 173 83 108 206 75 182 190 118 211 178 184
228 119 127 196 176 164 231 254 249 182 87 113 223 143 186 206 143 223 213 191
236 163 128 235 207 201 236 316 283 197 110 117 250 168 186 215 171 226 224 191
287 181 182 249 283 229 245 319 289 228 114 157 250 174 191 223 174 243 240 192
297 191 230 266 309 233 277 323 291 281 141 173 262 228 213 245 188 253 246 223
304 233 240 270 309 265 279 324 314 286 177 195 276 235 220 260 212 261 262 239
311 242 245 323 324 291 294 334 335 318 256 230 293 262 229 306 224 281 265 296
324 262 275 329 328 331 306 335 339 327 275 257 329 290 248 331 257 303 276 341
325 277 275 346 329 332 329 340 340 338 305 269 341 305 320 339 298 327 315 351
349 308 277 358 337 344 332 342 350 339 357 294 361 327 339 357 326 329 317 353
360 362 306 361 365 363 359 362 361 365 361 310 361 328 362 364 339 356 330 354
No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes
P(YES)= 0.55
Part IIC: Conclusion
For the simulation of classes, a class size of 20 was used and 20 classes were simulated. The
probability that 2 people shared the same birthday in this simulation, P(S) was .5500. The theoretical
probability that 2 people share the same birthday in a class size of 20, P(T), was 0.4114. The simulation
produced a higher rate of shared birthdays than what is predicted by P(T).
When the class was polled, no one was found to share a birthday. The attending class size was
19. In a class size of 19 students the P(T) was 0.3792 so the P(T) that no one shares a birthday in a class
of 19 students is 0.6208 (1 P(T)). This means we could expect, based on the theoretical probability that
there is a slightly better than 62% probability that no one in a group of 19 students shares a birthday.
Taking all the data together, we can conclude that:
The poll taken in part one did not produce an unusual result since the chance that no one would
share a birthday was much higher based on the theoretical probability.
The simulation produced a result that was higher than the theoretical probability by greater than
5% which would make the event unusual.
The theoretical probability that at least 2 people share a birthday grows as the population size
increases.