Decision Support for Management

ABSTRSCT

Introduction:
In many country population is a main problem for the government, because government has
facing many challenges including this so here we see that which kind of thing we need to
improve our birth rate and what over uses are according to system dynamic(SD) is a tool or a
formula to helps us to control over population,
Because a population demand and their require from the government is basic rights like
education, medicines, public service transport, and entertainment. So the government is a
responsible for this to facilities their peoples.
The country of Pakistan capital name Islamabad and have a four provinces(states) and the
Punjab is the bigger one from others. Rawalpindi is a district including six (tehsils) county and
fourth largest city in Pakistan during which time Rawalpindi served as the national capital and
its population increased from 200,000 to over 2.3 million and now minimum population of this
city of A is 4,49,600 in (2011). Rawalpindi is located in the Punjab province, 280 km (174
miles) to the north-west of Lahore. It is the governmental accommodate of the Rawalpindi
division (District).The total area of the city is around 156 square kilometres (60 sq mi).

Is demographic system is a main examples in this system so why do I use it? (Background)
a) As we see that the population is work force for many other like for example, the basic facilities
require from the people like energy require and demand for electricity is total depend on
population and the other end like traffic and public transport is also on public demand,
Economic and the basic needs of the people are related with the population. Tax system
according to the law and increasing of disease are also related to population.
b) In number of the cases, the system can be alleged to be discrete in nature, thus discussion about
population is easy to understand for everyone or common people.
System Dynamic Diagrams
System dynamics is a tool (Formula) or key and we use it to dealing with the value of states in a
system greater than time. For example, you think a country like Pakistan as a system and we
abridge the states Punjab inside the city Rawalpindi only to consider the population of the city
more than time. or System dynamics is a mainframe-aided and move towards to policy
testing(analysis)and design of structure . It applies to dynamic problems to see arising in
intricate social, economic, ecological systems -literally any dynamic systems characterized by
interdependence, communal contact, information data feedback, and rounded causality.









(Fig.1)







Population

Poverty

Unemployment

Illiteracy
Economy
Policy

(Fig 1.1)

The Reasonable Elements of Rapid Population Growth:
The following elements of the system configuration model are as follows:
1. Micro Causes
Rapid In creasing Population
Birth Rate / year
Concept of a number of child
Lack of awareness
Non using of proper ( FPP) Family planning programme
Bad effects of society
Lack of sources
Illiteracy and unemployment
Poverty & child labour
2. Macro Causes
The following statistical data of Punjab province and the city of Rawalpindi to study three
macro and major causes of rapid growth of population are as follows.
(a) Poverty &child labour (b) Unemployment (c) Level of Economy
(a)Poverty &child labour
The main reasonable and effect cause of population growthing is poverty in city of Rawalpindi
mostly people live in rural arias and they have not sources to use the proper family planning
system so thats way the population is increased in that city. and the other way we see the
number of child are labouring because a family is so large and the reason is number of family
members and the runner is one mean their father so child is going to labouring. There are so
many problems but the child labour is also one of the them so as a result of responses to the
economic problems faced by helpless children. It also empirically investigates the household
demographics and incidence of child labour. The earning and involvement functions were
estimated for a sample of 200 children in that city.
(b) Unemployment
The second problem of that city is lack of jobs. Number of people are unemployed due to
some lack of sources they can not run any business. Population growth rate is 1.9% which is the
highest in the county. Our resources are limited. Different sectors are unable to provide jobs to
growing population due to economy reason. So the unemployment is the reason (factor) for
populations.
(c) Level of economy
Level of economy is very low in that city. Lack of industries and also lack of chances to
provide the jobs and facilities to their people. These are major reason of population growthing
because people have no job. Rawalpindi is a net contributor to the Pakistani economy, as whilst
having only 0.9% of the country's population, it contributes 1.5% to the countrys. So there are
lot of problems in the city of A but these problems are affected on over study.
So here we see the rate, level and constant of population.
Level of Population
Present situation or condition in the system is called Level in System dynamics expressions. In our
example the level variable represents the number of population in the city of Rawalpindi at year
(t)and we give details A(t).If we know the number of population in the city this year, we can guess
what will be the population of the city next year. To do that, we need to know the birth rate and
death rate. Birth rate y is defined as the number of birth B divided by the total population in the
city A.


Death rate d is simply counting the number of people who die in the city D divided by the total
population in the city A.



Now the both birth rate and death rate are calculated in a single year t, but in here we thought to
be constant. Then we can say that the number of population in the city next year will be

A (t+1) =A(t)+B-D
=A (t)+b.A(t)-d.A(t)
=A (t) (1+b-d) (1)
The number of Birth B and the number of Death D are called Rates variables in System
Dynamics terms, while birth rate y and death rate d are called Constants. Rates inconsistent
measures change of the level inconsistent between two consecutive times. Thus, rate variable
can be computed from the levels. In system dynamic, level unpredictable can only be changed
through rate variable. Rate variable cannot change another rate variable directly without level
variable.
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
Here is two types of diagrams the one of related with Equation (1) above and can be shown
graphically. First diagram is called Causal Diagram and the second diagram is called Stock and
Flow Diagram .

+ +


Birth Population Death

+ _ (Fig.2)

This loop diagram above can we see and read follow. This loop called Causal Diagram. In this
diagram the number of baby birth in the city(A) causes increase in population and higher
number of population causes higher number of birth. This part of loop is called positive
feedback loop as shown in orange. The number of people who die in the city is a function of
population. Higher the number of population, higher the number of death people. However,
higher the numbers of death peoples in the city will effect into reduce the number of
population. This part of loop is called negative feedback loop.
Balancing and Reinforcing loop
When we make the causal loop diagram then we see the two main point shows us the one called
is (+) positive and the second is (-) negative. Our this loop diagram we collect the feedback
from the sing of birth and the death focusing on the original factors about the loop. For example
in the causal diagram above we have two feedback loops. Birth and Population make one
feedback loop while Death and Population make the second feedback loop.
Statement of Problems
There are lot of problems in the city of A and also city have faced many challenges to stop the
increasing of population and the birth rate also. City government has manage the proper family
planning system for their people but the people of that city is not cooperative the reason is that
mostly people are illiterate (uneducated).Here is the problem for the government.
Stock and Flow diagram (SFD)
So the second diagram is (SFD).This diagram is represent the population dynamic of equation
(1) is through Stock and Flow Diagram proposed by Jay W. Forrester in 1971. I put again
equation (1) in here for clarity.
X (t+1) =A(t)+B-D
=A (t)+b.A(t)-d.A(t)
=A(t)(1+b-d) (1)
Where
A=Total Population in City
B=Number of birth in City
D=Number of death in City
t=Population in the city at Year

The flow diagram related to the equation is illustrated below.

Birth rate Death rate



+ +



Birth + Death -
(Fig.3)
According to this (SDF) Stock and flow diagram we see that the diagram shows causal
connection of the level and rates and constants in a system. When we compare this (SDF) with
causal diagram then does not differentiate rate from level and constant, this diagram (SDF)
differentiate the three variables. Sometimes, it also distinguish what kind of flow is moving in
the diagram (whether it is physical material, goods, equipment, people, actual things or abstract
things such as information, decision, money, order etc.) in the arrow link.
In this tutorial.
This example, we see that the changing a number of people in that city in this diagram. So the
variable rate of birth (B) is effected by a irregular birth rate(b) and the other side we see the
level variable of that city of A (t). Since the variable rate is pointing to the level, and the level
variable name Population ( A(t)). The death rate variable name(D) is effected by a constant
level of death rate name (d)and the level variable name Population or city A(t) as indicated by
the black arrow.
A sometime we want to related system dynamic with dynamical system. Order of the system is
single-minded by the number of level variable. If there is one level variable, it is called first
order system. If there are two level variables, it is called second order system, and so on.
Mathematical Equations & Numerical Example
For more understanding easily, here is simple numerical example to compute to the equation
(1). I put again equation (1) in here for clarity.

A(t+1) =A(t)+B-D
=A(t)+b.A(t)-d.A(t)
=A(t)(1+b-d)
(1)
For example, the birth rate is know to be 9%and the death rate is 3% and at time 0 the
population is 300 thousand. So we can see.
= Expected rate * 100
Current rate (Total rate) e.g. ( 3% * 100 )
Conclusion 9%
So when we make the casual loop chart and flow chart and also include the numerical example
and mathematical equation then we combining of all above relationships, we can get ideas or
obtain a casual loop of population system. The loop in the diagram is a positive feedback loop
while the relationship between population and social economy is also a negative causality.

The system dynamic model is used to analyze the strength of various method and their results
are same as obtained. The various methods have a different effect on different areas and
policies for family planning are important in the same various areas. So the virtual results of
system dynamics model shows that the birth rate of Punjab province will be decreased to 16%
within next six to seven years, if the real policies and measures of family planning would be
adopted properly in unbroken cycle. When people use proper family planning system and
fallow the (LHWs) ladies health workers programme hope that diseases are decreased and we
should control the growthing of population. So when the main three causes of the city of
Population


Rawalpindi are control then sure that the population is under control because people are
educated and employed and they have awareness to use the right way. They fallow the proper
family planning system.
References
Books (1-2)
Meadows, D.H. (1980) for System Dynamic (Developing a System Dynamic Model)
Michael C. Jackson (2000) System Approaches to Management p 148 C-6
www.springer.com Home New & Forthcoming Titles(book)
For Equations http://www.docstoc.com/docs/5624509/Stock--Flow-Diagrams
www.people.revoledu.com/kardi/tutorial/.../index.html
www.slideshare.net/benghuid/levels-and-rates
http://rawalpindi-city.blogspot.com
www.travel.mapsofworld.com/pakistan/rawalpindi.../facts.html
www.trueknowledge.com/q/population_of_rawalpindi_in_2011 -
www.mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19161/
www.paiman.org.pk/resources/DHPs/DP_Rawalpindi.pdf
System Dynamics method of population (Google search)
System Dynamics Tutorial

Teknomo, Kardi. System Dynamics Tutorials. http:\\people.revoledu.com\kardi\
tutorial\SystemDynamic\