Sarah Lewandowski

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Sinusoidal Modeling Project
Part 1
A. The formula for the average low temperatures in Houghton Lake, Michigan is
F(t)=25.5sin((2/12)(t-4))+41.5, where F(t) is the average low temperature of
each month, and t is the month (January = 1). The growing season is when
temperatures remain above 32 Fahrenheit. To find the length of the growing
season, look at the function F(t) graphed below in Figure 1.


Figure 1. Average Low Temperatures Function

If you plot the function y=32, the places where it intersects with the function F(t)
are the places where the growing season begins and ends. The first intersection
points, from graph trace, are when month=3.27 and 10.7. This means that the
growing season, on average, begins after 3.27 months and ends at 10.7 months,
because the temperature (according to the function) does not drop to less than
32 F. To find the length of the growing season each year, simply subtract 10.7-
3.27, which means that the average length of the growing season is 7.43 months,
from about March to October. The maximum average low temperature is 67 F,
which occurs close to the middle of the growing season. The minimum average
low temperature in Houghton Lake is 16 F. which occurs about halfway between
Sarah Lewandowski
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the end and the beginning of each season. Since the growing cycle repeats
every year, the period is 12 months, which also means that the growing season
comes every 12 months, or 1 year.

B. A function for average daylight hours in Fairbanks, Alaska is plotted below
(Figure 2).


Figure 2. Average Daylight Hours

The function F(L)=8.5sin((2/365)(L-80))+12.2 helps to find how much light
therapy a person requires. One hour of light therapy equals one hour of
darkness. A person wants to make up the daylight hours from all days where
there are less than 12 hours of sun a day. To do this, trace the intersection points
of the function F(L) and y=12. They are days 78.6, rounded to 79, and 246. The
days that have sun for less than 12 hours are between 0 and 79, and 264 and
365. Subtract 365-264 and that equals 101 days. When you add 101 to 79, that
gives you 180 days where there is less than 12 hours of sun. The person will
require light therapy on 180 days.

Sarah Lewandowski
D1
10C

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Part 2
The following data shows average maximum temperature in each month in
Warsaw, Poland, found at www.worldclimate.com.
Table 1
Average Maximum Temperatures in Warsaw, Poland
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
F 43.0 44.8 59.0 72.0 79.9 84.7 87.1 86.2 80.1 69.8 55.2 47.1

The independent variable is the month, and the dependent is temperature in F,
because the temperature changes depending on what month it is.

The data is plotted below in Figure 3.


Figure 3. Scatterplot of Average Maximum Temperature per Month

It makes sense that the average monthly temperature can be modeled by a
periodic function because within a year, temperature increases and decreases,
depending on what month or part of the year it is. It repeats every year also, so
the period is 12 months.

Sarah Lewandowski
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Non-regression Model (cosine)

Period = 12
Amplitude = (max-min)/2 = (87.1-43.0)/2 = 22.05
Phase Shift = shift to the right 7 from 0
Vertical Shift = 43 [minimum] + 22.05 [amplitude] = 65.05
OR 87.1 [maximum] 22.05 [amplitude] = 65.05

2a = 12
a = 6/ b = 22.05= 22.05 h = 7 k = 65.05

y = 22.05cos(
/ 6
7 x
)+65.05

To predict the temperature halfway through February, plug 2.5 into the equation
for x. The predicted temperature is 49.4583 F. This outcome is very reasonable
because the temperature in February is 44.8, and the temperature in March is
59.0, and 49.4583 falls in between those.

Temperature is graphed, and a sinusoidal regression equation is fitted to the
graph below in Figure 4. The model is:
y=25.1171sin(0.450336x-1.55698)+63.4989


Figure 4. Regression Model

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Using this regression model to predict the temperature halfway through August,
plug 8.5 into the equation and the predicted temperature is 82.6983 F. This
answer is reasonable because the temperature for August is 86.2 and the
temperature for September is 80.1, and 82.6983 is between these values.

The scatter plot, non-regression model, and regression model are shown in
Figure 5. Regression is shown in blue, and non-regression is shown in red.


Figure 5. Regression and Non-Regression Models

The regression equation (blue) has a higher maximum, and a lower minimum
because the graph extends past the window. This means that the amplitude is
slightly larger in the regression model. The phase shift is the same; it is 7 in both.
In general, the regression equation is obviously a better model, because since it
is determined by the calculator, it is more accurate than just using 12 data points.