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EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS

TRENDS
TO 2050

REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................................3
LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................................................................4
1.

INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
PURPOSE OF THE PUBLICATION ...................................................................................................................................................................................10
EU REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013 ...............................................................................................................................................................................11

2.

MAIN ASSUMPTIONS .......................................................................................................................................................................... 14


MACROECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO .....................................................................................................................................................14
WORLD FOSSIL FUEL PRICES........................................................................................................................................................................................16
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS ...............................................................................................................................................................................17
POLICY ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................20
FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS ...............................................................................................................................................................................................25
Discount Rates.....................................................................................................................................................................................................25
Degree days ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................26
Exchange rates ....................................................................................................................................................................................................26

3.

RESULTS FOR THE EU REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013............................................................................................................... 27


OVERVIEW OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICIES AND MEASURES...........................................................................................27
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF RES SUPPORTING MEASURES AND THE EVOLUTION OF RES INDICATORS ...................................................................30
OVERVIEW OF THE EU ETS AND PROJECTIONS ON CARBON PRICES ......................................................................................................................32
ENERGY CONSUMPTION ................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Industrial sector ..................................................................................................................................................................................................36
Residential sector ..............................................................................................................................................................................................36
Tertiary sector (services and agriculture) ..............................................................................................................................................38
Transport sector .................................................................................................................................................................................................38
POWER GENERATION .....................................................................................................................................................................................................42
Electricity generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................43
Steam and heat supply ...................................................................................................................................................................................47
Electricity costs and prices ............................................................................................................................................................................47
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEPENDENCY ..............................................................................................................................................49
CO2 EMISSIONS .............................................................................................................................................................................................................50
NON-CO2 EMISSIONS AND THEIR DRIVERS ................................................................................................................................................................53
Agriculture sector ...............................................................................................................................................................................................55
Energy sector .......................................................................................................................................................................................................56
Waste and wastewater sector .....................................................................................................................................................................56
F-gas emissions ..................................................................................................................................................................................................57
Industry sectors covered by the EU ETS ..................................................................................................................................................58
TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS (EXCLUDING LULUCF) ......................................................................................................................................................59
LULUCF EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS AND THEIR DRIVERS .....................................................................................................................................59
Emissions from forest land ...........................................................................................................................................................................61
Emissions from cropland ................................................................................................................................................................................62

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Emissions from grassland.............................................................................................................................................................................. 63


Emissions from other land ............................................................................................................................................................................ 63
TOTAL ENERGY SYSTEM AND OTHER MITIGATION COSTS .......................................................................................................................................... 63
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
GLOSSARY.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS .......................................................................................... 69
APPENDIX 2: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS ..................................................................................................... 85
APPENDIX 3: NON-CO2 GHG EMISSIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 147
APPENDIX 4: LULUCF EMISSIONS ............................................................................................................................................................ 159

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: EXAMPLES OF COSTS AND EFFICIENCIES OF DEMAND SIDE TECHNOLOGIES ..............................................................................................19
TABLE 2: EU AND OTHER POLICIES INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013 ...............................................................................................20
TABLE 3: EFFECT OF POLICIES ADOPTED IN THE REFERENCE 2013 SCENARIO ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION .........................................................30
TABLE 4: AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE INDUSTRY SECTOR ..................................................................................36
TABLE 5: INDICATORS OF POWER GENERATION .............................................................................................................................................................47
TABLE 6: VOLUME OF ELECTRICITY TRADE .....................................................................................................................................................................47
TABLE 7: EVOLUTION OF COST COMPONENTS OF ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2010-20 ................................................................................................48
TABLE 8 : MAIN NATIONAL POLICIES WITH SPECIFIC EFFECTS ON NON-CO2 GHGS AND CONSIDERED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO...............55
TABLE 9: METHODOLOGY USED TO ESTIMATE LULUCF EMISSIONS ..........................................................................................................................60

EU Reference scenario 2013

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF EU28.................................................................................................................................................................................. 14
FIGURE 2: GDP OF THE EU27........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF GDP PER CAPITA ............................................................................................................................. 15
FIGURE 4: GINI INDEX FOR THE EU28 MEMBER STATES ........................................................................................................................................... 15
FIGURE 5: STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY IN EU28..................................................................................................................................................... 16
FIGURE 6: FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT PRICES ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17
FIGURE 7: RATIO OF GAS TO COAL AND GAS TO OIL PRICES ........................................................................................................................................ 17
FIGURE 8: DEVELOPMENT OF CAPITAL COSTS OVER TIME FOR POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES..................................................................... 18
FIGURE 9: DISCOUNT RATES USED IN PRIMES ............................................................................................................................................................ 26
FIGURE 10: RES INDICATORS AT THE EU LEVEL .......................................................................................................................................................... 32
FIGURE 11: PROJECTION OF THE ETS PRICE ................................................................................................................................................................. 33
FIGURE 12: AVAILABLE ALLOWANCES AND ETS GHG EMISSIONS PROJECTION ...................................................................................................... 33
FIGURE 13: PROJECTION OF ALLOWANCES SURPLUS ................................................................................................................................................... 33
FIGURE 14: GIC IN RELATION TO GDP .......................................................................................................................................................................... 34
FIGURE 15: ENERGY INTENSITY PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR .......................................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 16: GROSS INLAND CONSUMPTION ................................................................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 17: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION .................................................................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 18: TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR........................................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 19: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ................................................................................................................... 36
FIGURE 20: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR BY ENERGY FORM .................................................................................... 36
FIGURE 21: IMPROVEMENTS IN EFFICIENCY OF THE ENERGY EQUIPMENT IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR COMPARED TO 2005 .......................... 37
FIGURE 22: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ............................................................................................................................. 37
FIGURE 23: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE TERTIARY SECTOR ................................................................................................................................... 38
FIGURE 24: TRENDS IN TRANSPORT ACTIVITY AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION .............................................................................................................. 40
FIGURE 25: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT..................................................................................................................................................... 40
FIGURE 26: TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT .................................................................................................................................................... 41
FIGURE 27: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT BY FUEL TYPE ............................................................................................................................ 42
FIGURE 28: STRUCTURE OF PASSENGER CARS FLEET AND FUEL CONSUMPTION ....................................................................................................... 42
FIGURE 29: ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL AND BY PLANT TYPE ........................................................................................................................ 44
FIGURE 30: INSTALLED POWER CAPACITIES .................................................................................................................................................................. 46
FIGURE 31: PROJECTED CAPACITY ADDITIONS .............................................................................................................................................................. 46
FIGURE 32: FUEL INPUT FOR STEAM GENERATION ........................................................................................................................................................ 47
FIGURE 33: COST COMPONENTS OF AVERAGE ELECTRICITY PRICE.............................................................................................................................. 48
FIGURE 34: PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (PRE-TAX) BY SECTOR........................................................................................................................................... 48
FIGURE 35: PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY ........................................................................................................................................................................... 49
FIGURE 36: PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................. 49
FIGURE 37: PRIMARY ENERGY IMPORTS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 49
FIGURE 38: NET IMPORTS BY FUEL................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
FIGURE 39: CO2 EMISSIONS OF POWER GENERATION AND ENERGY TRANSFORMATION .......................................................................................... 50
FIGURE 40: ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ........................................................................................................... 51
FIGURE 41: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ......................................................................................................................................... 51

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050


FIGURE 42: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TERTIARY SECTOR ...............................................................................................................................................52
FIGURE 43: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ...........................................................................................................................................52
FIGURE 44: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS .................................................................................................................................................................53
FIGURE 45: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR .............................................................................................................................................53
FIGURE 46: NON-CO2 GHGS BY MAJOR SECTORS IN EU28 2005 TO 2050.......................................................................................................54
FIGURE 47: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN EU28 BY SOURCE ...............................................................................................55
FIGURE 48: AGRICULTURE SECTOR ACTIVITY DRIVERS AND EMISSIONS OF NON-CO2 GHGS IN EU28................................................................56
FIGURE 49: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN EU28 BY SOURCE .........................................................................................................56
FIGURE 50: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE WASTE AND WASTEWATER SECTOR IN EU28 .............................................................................................57
FIGURE 51: F-GAS EMISSIONS IN EU28 BY SOURCE...................................................................................................................................................58
FIGURE 52: NON-CO2 GHGS OF EU-ETS SECTORS IN EU28 .................................................................................................................................58
FIGURE 53: EVOLUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS ...............................................................................................................................................................59
FIGURE 54: EU28 LULUCF EMISSIONS UNTIL 2050 IN MT CO2 ...........................................................................................................................60
FIGURE 55: EU28 LULUCF SECTOR LAND BALANCE IN 1.000 HA UNTIL 2050 ..................................................................................................61
FIGURE 56: EU28 HARVEST REMOVALS AND INCREMENT IN 1.000 M3 UNTIL 2050 ..........................................................................................61
FIGURE 57: DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU28 CARBON SINK IN THE FOREST SECTOR UNTIL 2050 ...........................................................................62
FIGURE 58: EVOLUTION OF ENERGY SYSTEM COSTS ....................................................................................................................................................63

EU Reference scenario 2013

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS


BEV

Battery Electric Vehicle

bn

billion

boe

barrel of oil equivalent

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural


BGR

Resources (Bundesanstalt fr Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe)

CAPEX

Capital Expenditure

Gpkm

giga passenger-kilometre, or
9

10 passenger-kilometre
giga tonne-kilometre, or 10
tonne-kilometre

CCGT

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

Gtkm

CCS

Carbon Capture and Storage

GWh

CDM

Clean Development Mechanism

km

kilometre

CHP

Combined Heat and Power

ktoe

1000 toe

CIS

Commonwealth of Independent States

Mt

million metric tonnes

CNG

Compressed Natural Gas

Mtoe

million toe or 10 toe

CO2

Carbon dioxide

MW

megawatt or 10 watt

DG ECFIN
EED

ENTSO-E

Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs


Energy Efficiency Directive
European Network of Transmission System
Operators for Electricity

gigawatt-hour or 10 watthours

MWh
p.a.

megawatt-hour or 10 watthours
per annum
passenger-kilometre (one

pkm

passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)

EPBD

Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

metric tonne

EPC

Economic Policy Committee

toe

tonnes of oil equivalent

tkm

tonne-kilometre (one tonne

ESCO

Energy Service Company

transported a distance of one


kilometre

ESD

Effort Sharing Decision

ETS

Emissions Trading Scheme

EU

European Union

EU28

European Union of 28 Member States

EU27

EU15

European Union of 27 Member States (before


accession of Croatia)
European Union of 15 Member States before
the 2004 enlargement (Austria, Belgium,

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,


Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)
Member States joining the European Union
after 2004, excluding Croatia (Bulgaria, CyEU12

prus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovak Republic)

EUROSTAT

Statistical Office of the European Union

EV

Electrically chargeable Vehicle

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GHG

Greenhouse Gas

GIC

Gross Inland Consumption

HDV

Heavy Duty Vehicle (HGVs and buses)

HGV

Heavy Goods Vehicle

IATA

International Air Transport Association

ICE

Internal Combustion Engine

IEA

International Energy Agency

IEA-WEO

International Energy Agency World Energy


Outlook

IPPC

Integrated Pollution Prevention Control

LCV

Light Commercial Vehicle

LDV

Light Duty Vehicle (LCVs and passenger


cars)

LNG

Liquefied Natural Gas

LPG

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

LULUCF

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

MS

Member State

NREAP

National Renewable Energy Action Plan

NTC

Net Transfer Capacities

OECD

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and


Development

OPEX

Operational expenditure

PHEV

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

PV

Solar Photovoltaic

EU Reference scenario 2013

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RES

Renewable Energy Sources

RES-E

Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity

RES-H&C

Renewable Energy Sources for Heating and


Cooling

RES-T

Renewable Energy Sources for Transport

RP

Resource-Production

TEN-T

Trans-European Transport Network

TYNDP

Ten-Year Network Development Plan (adopted by ENTSO-E)

USGS

United States Geological Survey

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

INTRODUCTION

EU Reference scenario 2013

INTRODUCTION

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

The Reference scenario was elaborated by a consorti-

1.

Introduction

Purpose of the publication


This report is an update and extension of the previous trend scenarios for development of energy systems taking account of transport and GHG emissions
developments, such as the European energy and
transport - Trends to 2030 published in 2003 and its
1

2005, 2007 and 2009 updates . The purpose of this


publication is to present the new "EU Reference scenario 2013" ("Reference scenario" later in the text).
This Reference scenario was finalised in July 2013. It
focuses even more than previous ones on the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU developments and the various interactions among policies,
including now also specific sections on emission
trends not related to energy. Its time horizon has
been extended up to 2050. It reports for the first time
on EU28 including Croatia. Moreover, the modelling
process has included four rounds of consultation of
Member States experts on Member State specific
assumptions and draft modelling results. The responsibility for the results rests, however, with the authors
of the scenario who were commissioned to do this
work by Directorate General for Energy, Directorate
General for Climate Action and Directorate General
for Mobility and Transport.
This new update is based on the latest available statistical year from EUROSTAT at the time of the modelling (the year 2010). In comparison to the previous
version, the newest macro-economic data already
shows the statistical effects of the on-going EU's
economic downturn in activity of different sectors as
well as energy consumption and GHG emissions.
The demographic and economic forecasts reflect recent projections by EUROSTAT and the joint work of
the Economic Policy Committee and the European
Commission (DG ECFIN) respectively. The "Ageing
2
Report 2012" has been the starting point of this ex-

Please see: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/


Please see:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_econ
omy/2012/2012-ageing-report_en.htm.
2

10

um led by the National Technical University of Athens


(E3MLab), using the PRIMES model for energy and
CO2 emission projections, the GAINS model for nonCO2 emission projections and the GLOBIOM-G4M
models for LULUCF emission and removal projections,
supported by some more specialised models (e.g.
GEM-E3 model that has been used for projections for
the value added by branch of activity, PROMETHEUS
model that has been deployed for projections of world
energy prices and CAPRI model for agricultural activity
projections). Please see more information about these
specialised models in the section on total GHGs emissions. The scenarios are available for the EU and each
of its 28 Member States simulating the energy balances and GHG emission trends for future years under
current trends and policies as adopted in the Member
States by spring 2012.
The PRIMES model is a modelling system that simulates a market equilibrium solution for energy supply
and demand in the EU28 and its Member States. The
model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices
of each energy form such that the quantity producers
find best to supply matches the quantity consumers
wish to use. The market equilibrium is achieved for
each time period and the simulation is dynamic over
time. The model is behavioural but also represents in
an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement
technologies. The system reflects considerations about
market
economics,
industry
structure,
energy/environmental policies and regulation, which are
conceived so as to influence market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES
reflects a distribution of decision making among agents
that act individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. The market integrating part of PRIMES subsequently simulates market clearing.
In this exercise the more detailed PRIMES-TREMOVE
transport model was also used to develop the transport
projections; this model is now fully integrated with the
main PRIMES model.
PRIMES is a general purpose energy model; it is conceived for designing projections to the future, scenario
building and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium
to long-term horizon. Its modular structure allows either
for integrating model use or for partial use.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

INTRODUCTION

ercise giving long term population and GDP growth


trends up to 2060 while the short and medium term

the perception related to nuclear power generation


and tightened the security requirements for nuclear

GDP growth projections were taken from DG ECFIN.

technologies.

The recent boom in shale gas development and exploration of unconventional oil reserves are increasing the fossil fuel reserve basis and thus changing the
projections about the developments of international
fuel prices. The fuel prices have been updated in the
new scenario to take into account the recent devel-

In the context of climate change policies, specific Copenhagen/Cancun pledges for 2020 have been also
set in other world regions, which have been considered in the world energy price modelling part of this
exercise.

opments.

EU Reference scenario 2013

Significant progress has been made towards the

The new Reference scenario determines as core element the development of the EU energy system un-

achievement of the targets set out in the EU Energy


and Climate Package, and new legislative measures,
3
most notably the Energy Efficiency Directive , have
been adopted at EU level. Several changes have occurred at national levels as well.
This report focuses on trend projections understood
in the sense of a Reference scenario. Similar to the
Reference scenario latest update from 2009, this
Reference scenario starts from the assumption that
the legally binding GHG and RES targets for 2020 will
be achieved and that the policies agreed at EU level
by spring 2012 (notably on energy efficiency) as well
as relevant adopted national policies will be implemented in the Member States. Following this approach the Reference scenario can help enlightening
the debate on where currently adopted policies might
lead the EU and whether further policy development,
including for the longer term, would be needed. This
Reference scenario can therefore also serve as
benchmark or reference for assessing the impacts of
envisaged policy initiatives at EU level in the areas of

der current trends and adopted policies. It includes


current trends on population and economic development including the latest 2010 statistics and takes
into account the highly volatile energy import prices
environment of recent years. It portrays economic
decisions, which are driven by market forces and
technology progress in the framework of concrete
national and EU policies and measures adopted until
spring 2012 and which are or will be implemented
over the next years. The Reference 2013 scenario
includes all binding targets set out in EU legislation
regarding development of renewable energies and
reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as
well as the latest legislation promoting energy efficiency.
These assumptions together with the current statistical situation derived from the EUROSTAT energy
balances represent the starting point for projections
which are presented from 2015 onwards in 5 years'
steps until 2050.

energy, transport and climate.

The Reference 2013 scenario benefited from the

Some technology development forecasts have


changed since the latest update in 2009 both in posi-

comments of Member States experts. Many comments and additional information communicated by

tive way: faster than expected development for solar


PV technology and negative: slower than expected

the Member States were accommodated in revising

developments for CCS and remote off-shore wind


technologies.
Furthermore, international events, such as the Fuku-

the draft Reference scenario, while preserving a harmonised approach to EU energy system modelling.
The modelling has involved Member States experts
at various stages starting from responses to a very

shima nuclear accident of March 2011, have changed

detailed policy questionnaire and the Member States'


comments on macro-economic and sectorial econom-

ic projections. As a second step, detailed transport

For precise references to legislation, please see Table 2.

EU Reference scenario 2013

11

INTRODUCTION

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

activity modelling took place on the basis of these


consulted/revised economic trends, which, in turn,
were consulted with Member States' experts in autumn 2012. The third modelling step consisted in energy system and economy modelling with PRIMES
based on the revised economic and transport results
from stages 1 and 2. The draft outcome of the energy
modelling was again consulted with experts from the
Member States. This step included also the modelling
of energy related and industrial CO2 emissions. The
final step was the modelling and consultation of nonCO2 GHG trends, including energy related ones, and
of CO2 emissions and removals related to land use,
land use change and forestry (LULUCF). The macroeconomic assumptions and the results of the energy
modelling were important drivers for such GHG emissions, which were also based on modelling of other
areas such as agriculture and forestry.
Member States comments have been accommodated
as far as possible while striving to provide a consistent EU Reference scenario based on harmonised
assumptions on e.g. GDP and world energy prices as
well as EU and national policies and making sure that
imports and exports of energy among Member States
match. It needs to be, however, noted that the responsibility for these results lies with the consultants
and the Commission services. In any case, the comments from Member States have helped a lot to improve the quality of the projections, on which this report gives an account, focusing on EU28 results.
In addition to its role as a trend projection, the Reference scenario is a benchmark for scenarios featuring
alternative policy approaches or framework conditions (e.g. higher energy import prices, more ambitious renewables and climate policies).
All numbers included in this report, except otherwise
stated, refer to European Union of 28 Member States.

12

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

THE EU REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013

EU Reference scenario 2013

13

ASSUMPTIONS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF EU28

2.

Main assumptions

0.8

525

0.7

520

0.6

Macroeconomic and demographic scenario

515

0.5

The Reference 2013 scenario builds on macro-

510

0.4

505

0.3

500

0.2

Millions

economic projections of GDP and population which


are exogenous to the models used. The historical
time series from 1995 to 2010 were entirely updated
using the time series from EUROSTAT. The economic indicators therefore fully reflect the economic
downturn as it occurred in recent years up to 2010.
GDP and population projections by MS are considered as given. The scenario mirrors the recent DG
ECFIN projections for the short and medium term
(following the agreement reached in the Economic
Policy Committee (EPC)) and the EPC/DG ECFIN
Ageing Report 2012 (from first quarter 2012) for the
long-run. The GEM-E3 model is used to project the
structure of the economy and gross value added
generated by different sectors, consistently with the
given GDP projection.
The macroeconomic scenario comprises numerical
projections of GDP (volume), households income,
population and sectorial activity (using gross value
added in volume as a proxy) for 22 sectors, in each
EU Member State. The 22 sectors comprise: 10 en-

-0.1
-0.2

1996-2007), see Figure 2. In the longer term, lower


growth rates are assumed (avg. 1.4% pa over the
period 2030-2050). GDP/capita is projected to increase by a factor of 1.7 between 2010 and 2050.
Labour supply is linked to slowly growing and then
declining population as well as its ageing; this combined with assumptions on productivity trends from
the Ageing report explain rather low potential GDP
growth rates for the EU.
5

FIGURE 2: GDP OF THE EU27

Billion Euro'10

25000

5.0

20000

3.0

15000

1.0

GDP
10000

-1.0

% change pa
5000

population projection for the period 2010 to 2050.


This projection assumes fertility rates rising slightly,

an increase in persons aged 65 or more.

5-years avg. %
change

the period 2015-2030, down from the 2.2% pa during

The population projections are based on EUROSTAT

changes in its age structure: the projections point to a


significant reduction in the population aged 15-64 and

0.0

485

0.1

current economic crisis, followed by steady GDP


growth rates in the medium term (avg. 1.6% pa over

relevant drivers for energy demand and supply).

and decline slightly thereafter (see Figure 1). It is projected that the population undergoes significant

490

% change pa

The GDP projection assumes a recovery from the

that it simulates the energy markets by considering all

the EU population is projected to increase up to 2040

Population

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

and the energy supply sector (the value added of


which is not used as input to the energy model given

further life expectancy gains, and continued, but decelerating inward net migration to the EU. As a result,

495

480

ergy intensive industries, 6 non energy intensive industries, 3 service sectors, construction, agriculture

14

530

5-years avg. %
change

-3.0

-5.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

The highest GDP growth rate is projected in the period 2015-2030 whereas declining labour force and
slowdown in productivity growth lead to lower growth

Due to lack of consistent data for Croatia data is shown from


2007 onwards
5
GDP is shown for the EU27 only as past consistent data for Croatia is only available from 2010 onwards.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

pace in the long term. Nevertheless, the slowdown in


population growth allows for steady growth of GDP

ASSUMPTIONS

FIGURE 4: GINI INDEX FOR THE EU28 MEMBER STATES


GINI index improves by 13.9% in 2050 from 2010

per capita in the long term. In this respect, the convergence is shown in the EPC/DG ECFIN Ageing

100%

Cumulative shares of income earned

90%

Report 2012, which materialises through higher


growth rates of the new Member States and, in the
longer term, lower dispersion of GDP per capita
among all the Member States (see Figure 3).
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF GDP PER
CAPITA

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
2010

30%

2050

20%

Latvia

10%

Estonia

0%

Lithuania

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cumulative shares of people from lower to higher incomes

Bulgaria
Poland
Romania

The Reference scenario projection sees a continua-

Slovakia

tion of trends towards higher share of services in

Malta

GDP, which generate 78% of total value added by


2050. The projection also shows a recovery of activity

Czech
Hungary

in industry after the current crisis with industry being


projected to grow predominantly through shifting to-

Croatia
Finland
Sweden

wards higher value added products, rather than higher amounts of products. For energy intensive indus-

EU28
UK

tries recovery and then slow growth pace is project-

Spain

2010-2050

ed. Non energy intensive industries see a more significant growth. The remaining sectors - construction,

France
Denmark

agriculture and energy sector - see a rather slow


growth of activity.

Portugal
Slovenia
Ireland

Austria
Germany

For basic metals (ferrous and non-ferrous)


global projection shows steady growth of
world consumption of basic metals, with very
slow decoupling from world GDP growth.

Netherlands
Belgium
Cyprus

Faced with the global competition and demand growth mainly in other world regions,

Italy
Luxembourg

the EUs share in global market steadily de-

Greece
-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

clines, continuing past trends. Activity is,


however, projected to remain in the EU,

3.00

thanks to shifting production to high quality

The impact of the current debt crisis is significant in


several EU countries, which will struggle to return to
growth in the short term; on the other hand, several
countries with lower GDP/capita are likely to see their
relative position improved.

EU Reference scenario 2013

An improvement of the GINI coefficient by -13.9% means that in


2050 there is a better cohesion than in 2010 (lower inequality
among incomes in MS). The main improvement of the GINI index
comes from the lowest classes of income frequency distribution
which means that poorer countries tend to grow faster than richer
countries in the EU.
The calculation of the GINI coefficient includes Croatia.

15

ASSUMPTIONS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

products and to the tight links with equipment


goods industry also located in the EU. EU

tor in the EU industry, growing at steady


pace, albeit slightly more slowly than in the

production of pig iron and primary aluminium


is projected to increase more slowly than

period before the crisis.

growth of the basic metals industry, which in

Other industries (food products, wood prod-

clude electric arc and recycled metals.

ucts, etc.) also see steady growth with the


exception of textile industry, which is project-

For energy intensive chemicals, the recovery


from crisis is slow and followed by slow

ed to decline, due to competition from other


world regions.

growth. The EU production of fertilisers and


petrochemical products is projected to stabilise and slightly decline in the long term as a
result of weakening of EU competitiveness
and low demand in the internal market. Other
chemicals, particularly pharmaceutical and
cosmetics, are projected to grow slightly faster.

The non-metallic minerals sector cement,


ceramics, glass - is characterised by slow recovery from crisis followed by a slower
growth pace than before the crisis. Slower
growth is related to lower demand due to
slowdown of construction activity linked to
demographic change.

For the paper and pulp industry there is significant recovery from crisis and sustained
growth, although pulp production grows much
less than the entire paper sector. Nonethe-

The macro-economic and sectorial projections are


available by Member State (see Appendix 1).

World fossil fuel prices


The world fossil fuel price projections have undergone substantial revisions of key assumptions compared to the previous Reference scenario exercise:
Trends to 2030 Update 2009 including on reserves notably of shale gas and other unconventional
hydrocarbons, world economic developments and the
reflection of Copenhagen/Cancun pledges. Prices are
projected to develop along new trajectories rather
different from the past ones, particularly for gas.
The projection has been developed independently
with the PROMETHEUS model (stochastic world energy model) and was finalised in January 2012. The
International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook

less there is a slow decline of EU share in

(IEA WEO) for 2011 was published while work on the


PROMETHEUS projections for the Reference scenar-

global trade of paper and pulp.

io was already in progress, consequently an effort

The equipment goods industry (engineering)


is projected to remain the most dynamic sec-

was made to harmonise some of the assumptions but


otherwise the results have been arrived at inde-

FIGURE 5: STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY IN EU28


Shares in %

Gross Value Added

Billion Euro'10

Other sectors

16

20000
18000
16000
Energy intensive
14000
industry
12000
10000
Non energy
8000
intensive
industry
6000
4000
Services
2000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

19

18

18

16

74

75

76

78

2010

2020

2030

2050

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

pendently.
Large upward revisions for conventional gas and oil

ASSUMPTIONS

production (RP) ratios result in resumption of upward


trend in prices.

resources availability (following USGS, BGR, IEA)


have been implemented as well as the inclusion of

In the longer term, gas prices do not follow the upward trend of oil price. This is mostly due to the very

worldwide estimates of unconventional gas resources

large additional undiscovered resources that were

(tight sands, shale gas and coal bed methane) based


on estimates from IEA. The change implies that the

factored in, including unconventional gas. More importantly, natural gas prices stabilise at a level that is

natural gas resource base increases more than 2.5


times with important implications on prices.

still high enough to ensure economic viability of unconventional gas projects.

FIGURE 6: FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT PRICES

The downward revision of gas prices compared with


the 2009 Baseline had also impacts on coal prices

160

given that both fuels are competing in power generacoal price in


$'2010/boe

120
100
80

tion.
FIGURE 7: RATIO OF GAS TO COAL AND GAS TO OIL PRICES

60
40

natural gas price in


$'2010/boe

20

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

Regarding economic drivers, overall higher GDP


growth is projected than in the previous exercise: major upward revisions were undertaken for China, India
and Middle East and North Africa regions. For Europe
DG ECFIN Ageing reports were used, whereas other
regions basically follow IEA projections.

gas to coal

oil price in
$'2010/boe

3.60

1.80

3.20

1.60

2.80

1.40

2.40

1.20

2.00

1.00

1.60

0.80

1.20

0.60

0.80

0.40

0.40

0.20

gas to oil

140

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

gas to coal

gas to oil

10 per. Mov. Avg. (gas to coal)

10 per. Mov. Avg. (gas to oil)

Energy technology progress

For the overall projection, the Copenhagen-Cancun

The EU Reference Scenario 2013, as the previous


Reference scenarios, deals explicitly with the pene-

pledges are expected to be respected through carbon


prices as well as dedicated policies and measures.

tration of new technologies notably in power generation and transport and specifically with progress in

China, India and the CIS meet their pledges through


lack of ambition, whereas OECD Western Pacific

renewable technologies including further technology


learning. As analysed in the part on results, the pene-

fall considerably short because of high ambition com-

tration of new technologies leads to changes in the

pared to track record so far. Apart from the EU, no


additional climate related policies are assumed for

energy mix, alongside other drivers such as relative


prices and costs, policies to promote energy efficien-

the period beyond 2030.

cy, renewables and new technologies and broader


market trends regarding economic efficiency and bet-

Up to 2035, the projections result in oil prices which


are broadly in agreement with IEA-WEO 2011 and
2012 update (reporting up to that time horizon). For
the shorter term, higher prices reflect failure of productive capacity to grow in line with demand (fuelled
by economic recovery in the EU and US and persistent growth in emerging regions). The situation eases
somewhat around 2020 before declining resource-

EU Reference scenario 2013

ter use of resources. These interdependent developments also bring about energy efficiency improvements on both the demand and supply side. They
also result in energy technology changes, which in
the modelling are represented by an uptake of specific energy technologies from a broad portfolio of different technologies that change over time. The tech-

17

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ASSUMPTIONS

nology portfolio in the Reference Scenario includes


the following categories:

End-use energy efficiency (thermal integrity


of buildings, lighting, electric appliances, motor drives, heat pumps, etc.).

Renewable energy in centralized and decentralized power generation, in direct heating


and cooling applications, as well as for blending with petrol or diesel oil.

Supercritical coal plants, advanced gas combined cycle plants and CHP.

CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Nuclear energy including 3


tion.

Advanced transmission and distribution grids


and smart metering.

Plug-in hybrid and battery/full electric vehicles, both for passenger and freight road
transportation (light commercial vehicles).

Improvements in conventional engines in


transport.

rd

changed considerably and these have been taken


into account in the PRIMES model. The changes include:

Solar photovoltaics (PVs): techno-economic


improvements in the solar PV industry have
surpassed previous expectations and costs
have changed already for the short term. The
development of PVs starts from lower costs,
than previously expected and has a positive
learning curve throughout the projection period.

Remote offshore wind: in the previous exercise, following the review of available literature assumptions, the assumptions about remote offshore wind were very positive, including strong cost reductions. Following the latest literature review, assumptions about
techno-economic developments have been
revised upwards. Capital costs for remote
offshore wind developments are now expected to be significantly higher and the costs
to reduce more slowly.

Nuclear: since the Fukushima accident in


March 2011 security standards for nuclear

th

and 4 genera-

Although the key features of the technologies in the


portfolio are known today, the projected evolution of
their technical and economic characteristics presupposes that substantial industrial research and

FIGURE 8: DEVELOPMENT OF CAPITAL COSTS OVER TIME FOR POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
Development of capital costs over time (non-RES)

Development of capital costs over time (RES)

6000

7000

5000

6000

5931

4212
3949

EUR'2010/kW

3522

3370
2553

2445
2348
2061

5175
4073

4000

3000

2000

5000
EUR'2010/kW

4350
4000

2165

1811

1811

3988

3507

3000

2829

3158
2560

2000

1963

1508
1232

1000
832

898
0
2015

2020

2025

2030

Pulverised Coal Suprcritical CCS oxyfuel


Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Gas Advanced
Nuclear third

778

2035

2040

2045

2050

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Coal


Gas combined cycle CCS pre combustion

demonstration takes place enabling deployment at a


wide scale.
Compared to the 2009 Reference exercise the development prospects of certain technologies have

18

1291

1000

0
2015

2020

1150

1085

2025

2030

788

2035

Wind onshore

Remote Wind Offshore

Solar Thermal

Geothermal

2040

2045

2050

Solar PV (large scale)

power plants have been tightened, leading to


higher costs for their construction and testing
requirements. Costs for nuclear power plants
are therefore increased. With the new risk
assessment, financing conditions for nuclear

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

power plants have also worsened and this is


also reflected in the modelling.

CCS: the construction of power plants


equipped with carbon capture technologies
has been developing at a much slower pace
than expected at the time of development of
the 2009 Reference exercise. Development
of CCS is also hampered and delayed due to
public acceptance issues over building of the
storage capacities. The new difficulties and
the delays in the development of CCS are
taken into account in this new exercise.
Demand side technologies have been updated where is was found necessary following
latest literature review which includes the
most up to date preparatory studies for the
preparation of eco-design regulations and the
amendment of CO2 from light duty vehicles
regulation.

The modelling also assumes that learning curves apply for specific technologies, thus reflecting decreasing costs and increasing performances as a function
of cumulative production. The steepness of the learning curve differs by technology, depending also on
their current stage of maturity.

ASSUMPTIONS

Taking into account the technology portfolio available,


energy efficiency gains in the scenarios are driven by
microeconomic decisions, reflecting the market
agents' aim of minimizing costs and maximizing economic benefits operating in the context of public policies that promote energy efficiency. Similarly, renewables and CHP development are driven by private
economic considerations also taking into account
supportive policies which are assumed to continue in
the Reference scenario and gradually decrease in the
longer term (see policy assumptions).
The techno-economic characteristics of existing and
new energy technologies used in the demand and the
supply sectors of the energy system evolve over time
and improve according to exogenously specified
trends including learning rates. At any given time,
several technologies are competing with different performance and costs as presented by examples in Table 1. Following the logic developed in the previous
PRIMES versions, consumers and suppliers are generally hesitant to adopt new technologies before they
become sufficiently mature. They behave as if they
perceive a higher cost (compared to engineering cost
evaluations for the operation of such equipment)
when deciding upon adoption of new technologies.

Public policies at EU and national level, through information campaigns, inTABLE 1: EXAMPLES OF COSTS AND EFFICIENCIES OF DEMAND SIDE TECHNOLOGIES
dustrial policy, R&D supAppliance/Equipment
Unit
Base case
Improved
Advanced
Best
port, taxation and other
Consumption
kWh/hour
1.05
-5%
-10%
-20%
means, aim at pushing
Domestic Dishwashers
Costs
EUR'10/appl
349
29%
80%
130%
more rapid adoption of new
technologies by removing
Consumption
kWh/hour
0.03
-26%
-80%
-82%
Domestic Lighting
or compensating uncertainCosts
EUR'10/appl
4
34%
130%
165%
ties associated with their
Efficiency
COP
2.50
21%
47%
52%
Domestic AC (Electricity)
use. In this way, the techCosts
EUR'10/kW
415.7
20%
61%
85%
nologies themselves reach
Efficiency
(Useful/Final)
0.68
9%
23%
30%
Domestic boiler -Dwelling size
maturity more rapidly as a
(natural gas)
Costs
EUR'10
3342
15%
49%
71%
result of learning-by-doing
Efficiency
(Useful/Final)
0.64
21%
42%
47%
effects and economies of
Water heating boiler (natural gas)
Costs
EUR'10
700
40%
101%
131%
scale. Supportive policies
for the adoption of new
For power generation technologies the Reference
technologies
thus
lead
to
modifications in the percepscenario takes an optimistic view about the future,
tion of technologies.
without however assuming breakthroughs in technology development. All power technologies known today are projected to improve in terms of unit cost and
efficiency.

EU Reference scenario 2013

In the end, agents adopt new technologies because


they aim at reducing the costs of energy services,
which represent an important household budget/company balance sheet item. On macro-economic

19

ASSUMPTIONS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

level, GDP growth is therefore associated with continuous improvement of the technological basis leading to improved energy intensity, which is also supported by the effects from structural change in the
economy.

notably the Joint Research Centre of the European


Commission.

Last but not least, the deployment of some of the new


technologies depends on the development of new
infrastructure and regulations, which are partly driven
by government. This is the case, for example, for interconnectors and grid expansion, CCS regarding the
transportation and storage of captured CO 2 and for
the electrification of transportation which depends on
TSOs and DSOs undertaking grid and control systems investments.

2012 and policies, measures and legislative provisions (including on binding targets) adopted by or

Policy assumptions
The Reference scenario 2013 includes policies and
measures adopted in the Member States by April

agreed in the first half of 2012 at EU level in such a


way that there is almost no uncertainty with regard to
their adoption. This concerns notably the Energy Efficiency Directive, on which political agreement was
reached by that time. The policies and measures reflected in the Reference 2013 scenario are described
in Table 2.

Technology assumptions are based on extensive literature review by the PRIMES team and have additionally been checked by the Commission Services,
TABLE 2: EU AND OTHER POLICIES INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013
EU LEVEL POLICIES
Energy Efficiency
1

Ecodesign Framework Directive

Directive 2005/32/EC

Stand-by regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 1275/2008

Simple Set-to boxes regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 107/2009

Office/street lighting regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 347/2010

Lighting Products in the domestic and Tertiary Sectors

Commission Regulation (EU) No 347/2010

regulations

Commission Regulation (EC) No 859/2009


Commission Regulation (EC) No 244/2009
Commission Regulation (EC) No 245/2009

External power supplies regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 278/2009

TVs regulation (+labelling) regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 642/2009

Electric motors regulation

Commission Regulation (EC)No 640/2009

Freezers/refrigerators regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 643/2009

10

Household washing machines regulation

Commission Regulation (EU) No 1015/2010

11

Household dishwashers regulations

Commission Regulation (EU) No 1016/2010

12

Industrial fans regulation

Commission Regulation (EU) Regulation No


327/2011

20

13

Air conditioning and comfort fans regulation

Commission Regulation (EU) No 206/2012

14

Circulators regulation

Commission Regulation (EC) No 641/2009

15

Energy Labelling Directive


and delegated Regulations covering:

Directive 2010/30/EU

lamps and luminaires,

supplemented by Delegated Regulations and

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ASSUMPTIONS

Commission directives

household tumble driers


air conditioners
televisions
household washing machines
household refrigerating appliances
household dishwashers
and Commission Directives covering:
household electric ovens
household combined washer-driers
household electric tumble driers
16

Labelling of tyres regulations

Regulation (EC) No 1222/2009


Commission Regulation (EU) 228/2011
Commission Regulation (EU) 1235/2011

17

Directive on end-use energy efficiency and energy ser-

Directive 2006/32/EC

vices
18

Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

Directive 2010/31/EU and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 244/2012

19

Energy Efficiency Directive

Directive 2012/27/EU
Power generation and energy markets

20

Cogeneration Directive

Directive 2004/8/EC

21

Completion of the internal energy market (including

Directive 2009/73/EC

rd

provisions of the 3 package).

Directive 2009/72/EC

Since March 2011, the Gas and Electricity Directives of

Regulation (EC) No 715/2009,

rd

the 3

package for an internal EU gas and electricity

Regulation (EC) No 714/2009

market are transposed into national law by Members


States and the three Regulations:

Regulation (EC) No 713/2009

- on conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks


- on conditions for access to the network for crossborder exchange of electricity
- on the establishment of the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER)
are applicable.
22

Energy Taxation Directive

Directive 2003/96/EC

23

Regulation on security of gas supply

Regulation (EU) 994/2010

24

Regulation on market integrity and transparency (RE-

Regulation (EU) 1227/2011

MIT)
25

Nuclear Safety Directive

Council Directive 2009/71/Euratom

26

Nuclear Waste Management Directive

Council Directive 2011/70/Euratom

27

Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from


renewable sources ("RES Directive")

Directive 2009/28 EC

EU Reference scenario 2013

21

ASSUMPTIONS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

(Cross-sectoral) Climate policies


28

EU ETS directive

Directive 2003/87/EC as amended by Directive 2004/101/EC, Directive 2008/101/EC


and Directive 2009/29/EC and implementing
Decisions,
in
2010/634/EU,

particular
2010/384/EU,
2011/389/EU
(cap),

2011/278/EU, 2011/638/EU
and carbon leakage list)
29

Directive on the geological storage of CO2

Directive 2009/31/EC

30

GHG Effort Sharing Decision

Decision 406/2009/EC

31

F-gas Regulation

Regulation (EC) No 842/2006

(benchmarking

Transport related policies


32

Regulation on CO2 from cars

Regulation (EC) No 443/2009

33

Regulation EURO 5 and 6

Regulation (EC) No 715/2007

34

Fuel Quality Directive

Directive 2009/30/EC

35

Regulation Euro VI for heavy duty vehicles

Regulation (EC) No 595/2009

36

Regulation on CO2 from vans

Regulation (EU) No 510/2011

37

Eurovignette Directive on road infrastructure charging

Directive 2011/76/EU

38

Directive on the Promotion of Clean and Energy Efficient Road Transport Vehicles (in public procurement)

Directive 2009/33/EC

39

End of Life Vehicles Directive

Directive 2000/53/EC

40

Mobile Air Conditioning in motor vehicles Directive

Directive 2006/40/EC

41

Single European Sky II

COM(2008) 389 final

42

Directive on inland transport of dangerous goods

Directive 2008/68/EC

43

Third railway package

Directive 2007/58/EC

44

Directive establishing a single European railway area


(Recast)

Directive 2012/34/EU

45

Port state control Directive

Directive 2009/16/EC

46

Regulation on common rules for access to the interna-

Regulation (EC) No 1072/2009

tional road haulage market


47

Directive concerning social legislation relating to road

Directive 2009/5/EC

transport activities
48

Regulation on ground-handling services at Union airports

Part of "Better airports package"

49

Regulation on noise-related operating restrictions at

Part of "Better airports package"

Union airports
50

7
8

22

Directive on the sulphur content of marine fuels

Directive 2012/33/EU

Council agreement on general approach (22 March 2012), European Parliament vote (16 April 2013)
Council agreement on general approach (7 June 2012), European Parliament vote (11 December 2012)

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ASSUMPTIONS

Infrastructure, innovation and RTD and funding


51

TEN-E guidelines

Decision No 1364/2006/EC

52

EEPR (European Energy Programme for Recovery)

Regulation (EC) No 663/2009, ETS Directive

and NER 300 (New entrants reserve) CCS and innovative renewables funding programme

2009/29/EC Article 10a(8), further developed


through Commission Decision 2010/670/EU

53

EU research, development RTD and innovation supth

port (7 framework programme) - theme 6 and its expected continuation under Horizon 2020, Competitiveness and Innovation Programme, e.g. Sustainable Industry Low Carbon scheme SILC I (2011-2013)
54

EU Cohesion Policy ERDF, ESF and Cohesion Fund

55

TEN-T guidelines

Decision 884/2004/EC and expected continuation 30 May 2013 trilogue agreement on


revised TEN-T guidelines9 supported by the
Connecting Europe Facility
Environment and other related policies

56

State aid Guidelines for Environmental Protection and

Community guidelines on state aid for envi-

2008 Block Exemption Regulation

ronmental protection

57

Landfill Directive

Directive 99/31/EC

58

EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive

Directive 91/271/EEC

59

Waste Framework Directive

Directive 2008/98/EC

60

Nitrate Directive

Directive 91/676/EEC

61

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

e.g. Council Regulations (EC) No 1290/2005,


No

1698/2005,

No

1234/2007

and

No.

73/2009
62

Industrial emissions (Recast of Integrated Pollution and

Directive 2010/75/EU

Prevention Control Directive 2008/1/EC and Large


Combustion Plant Directive 2001/80/EC)
63

Directive on national emissions' ceilings for certain pol-

Directive 2001/81/EC

lutants
64

Water Framework Directive

Directive 2000/60/EC

65

Substances that deplete the ozone layer

Relevant EU legislation implementing the


Montreal protocol, e.g. Regulation (EC) No
1005/2009 as amended by Commission Regulation (EU) 744/2010

Source: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-478_en.htm

EU Reference scenario 2013

23

ASSUMPTIONS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

NATIONAL MEASURES

66

67

Strong national RES policies

National policies on e.g. feed-in tariffs, quota


systems, green certificates, subsidies, favourable tax regimes and other financial incentives
are reflected.

National Energy Efficiency policies

National policies promoting energy efficiency


implementing EU directives and policies, as
well as specific national policies are fully taken
into account
Nuclear, including the replacement of plants
due for retirement, is modelled on its economic merit and in competition with other energy
sources for power generation but also taking
into account the national policies, including
legislative provisions in some MS on nuclear
phase out. Several constraints are therefore
put on the model such as decisions of Member
States not to use nuclear at all (Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal).
The nuclear phase-out in Belgium and Germany is respected while lifetime of nuclear
power plants was extended to 60 years in
Sweden.

68

Nuclear

Nuclear investments are possible in Bulgaria,


the Czech Republic, France, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. For modelling the following
plans on new nuclear plants were taken into
account: Finland (1720 MW by 2015), France
(1600 MW by 2020), Lithuania (1400 by 2025),
Poland (1600 MW by 2025), Slovakia (940
MW by 2015).
Member States experts were invited to provide
information on new nuclear investments/programmes in spring 2012 and comments on the PRIMES Reference scenario
results in winter 2013, which had a significant
impact on the modelling results for nuclear
capacity.

24

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ASSUMPTIONS

OTHER SUPRA-NATIONAL LEVEL POLICIES


69

Energy Star Program (voluntary labelling program)

70

International Maritime Organisation (IMO) International

2008 amendments - revised Annex VI (Pre-

convention for the prevention of pollution from ships


(MARPOL), Annex VI

vention of Air Pollution from ships)

71

WTO Agreement on trade with agricultural products


from Uruguay round fully respected

72

Voluntary agreement to reduce PFC (perfluorocarbons,


potent GHG) emissions in the semiconductor industry

73

International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), Convention on International Civil Aviation, Annex 16, Volume II (Aircraft engine emissions)

74

IMO, Inclusion of regulations on energy efficiency for

IMO Resolution MEPC.203(62)

ships in MARPOL Annex VI

Further assumptions
Discount Rates
The PRIMES model is based on individual decision
making of agents demanding or supplying energy and
on price-driven interactions in markets. The modelling
approach is not taking the perspective of a social
planner and does not follow an overall least cost optimization of the entire energy system in the longterm. Therefore, social discount rates play no role in
determining model solutions. Social discount rates
can however be used for ex post cost evaluations.
On the other hand discount rates pertaining to individual agents play an important role in their decisionmaking. Agents economic decisions are usually
based on the concept of cost of capital, which is, depending on the sector, either weighted average cost
of capital (for larger firms) or subjective discount rate
(for individuals or smaller firms). In both cases, the
rate used to discount future costs and revenues involves a risk premium which reflects business practices, various risk factors or even the perceived cost
of lending. The discount rate for individuals also reflects an element of risk averseness.
The discount rates vary across sectors and may differ
substantially from social discount rates (typically 45%) which are used in social long-term planning. In
the PRIMES modelling, the discount rates range from
8% (in real terms) applicable to public transport companies or regulated investments as for example grid

EU Reference scenario 2013

development investments (in the form of weighed


average cost of capital) up to 17.5% applicable to
individuals (households and private passenger
transport, following extensive literature review on discount rates of private consumers). Additional risk
premium rates are applied for some new technologies
at their early stages of development impacting on
perceived costs of technologies.
More specifically, for large power and steam generation companies the cost of capital are 9%. In industry,
services and agriculture the discount rate amounts to
12%. Households have an even higher discount rate
of 17.5%. For transport, the discount rate depends on
the type of operator. Private passenger transport investments (e.g. for cars) are based on a discount rate
of 17.5%, while for trucks and inland navigation ships,
which are considered as investment goods the rate is
12%. Public transport investment is simulated with an
assumed discount rate of 8% for the whole projection
period reflecting the acceptance of longer pay-back
periods than those required in industry or private
households. All these rates are in real terms, i.e. after
deducting inflation.
The decision-making environment of businesses and
households on energy consumption is expected to
change because of the implementation of the Energy
Efficiency directive (EED). The EED will bring about
higher market penetration of Energy Service Compa-

25

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ASSUMPTIONS

nies (ESCOs) or similar institutions as well as the


reduction of associated risks as perceived by potential clients through quality controls and certifications.
This will entail lower perceived discount rates and is
reflected in the new Reference scenario. The imple-

for current money changes over time; it starts at the


value of 1.39$/ in 2009 and is assumed to decrease

mentation of the EED and the widespread penetration


of ESCOs is mirrored by the reduction of discount

to 1.30 $/ by 2012, at which level it is assumed to


remain for the remaining projection period.

rates by up to 2 percentage points in services and up


to 5.5 percentage points in households. Discount
rates are assumed to decline linearly from their
standard levels in 2010 to reach the policy driven values by 2020 and they remain at these levels throughout the remaining projection period. Thus the discount rates for households are reduced in the context
of the Reference scenario to 14.75% in 2015 and
12% from 2020 onwards throughout the entire projection period. For services the discount rate was progressively decreased to 11% in 2015 and 10% from
2020 onwards (see Figure 9).
FIGURE 9: DISCOUNT RATES USED IN PRIMES
Discount rates
(in real terms)
Power generation
Industry
Tertiary
Public transport
Trucks and inland
navigation
Private cars
Households

Standard discount
rates of PRIMES
9%
12%
12%
8%

Modified discount rates due to EED


2015
9%
12%
11%
8%

2020 - 2050
9%
12%
10%
8%

12%

12%

12%

17.5%
17.5%

17.5%
14.75%

17.5%
12%

Degree days
The degree days, reflecting climate conditions, are
kept constant at the 2005 level, which is higher than
the long term average without assuming any trend
towards further warming. The degree days in 2000
were fairly similar to the ones in 2005. The year 2010
was not considered to be representative in terms of
degree days. Such an approach facilitates comparison of statistics with the projection figures that are
based on climate conditions at the beginning of this
century. This simplification can be also justified by
consistency reasons given the status of model development. A selective inclusion of global warming
trends only for some modelling parts where this
would be feasible (heating degree days) and not for
others (e.g. water supply conditions for power generation, impacts on agriculture) could lead to misleading results. Further research and modelling work is
needed for an inclusion into a reference scenario.

26

Exchange rates
All monetary values are expressed in constant prices
of 2010 (without inflation). The dollar exchange rate

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

3.

Results for the EU Reference scenario


2013

The Reference 2013 scenario reflects current trends


in developments in the EU energy system and in the
global energy supply and demand, as described in
detail in section 2, as well as the consequences of
adopted policies presented in the Table 2. In this section, the main effects of these trends and of the implementation of policies listed above are presented,
notably on energy demand, power generation and
emissions developments for the EU28.
The projections were performed by the PRIMES
model and its satellite models: PRIMES-TREMOVE
transport model and PRIMES biomass supply model.
The horizon of the projection is 2050 and results are
available in five-year time steps, for each Member
10
State and for the EU28.
Considering the timeframes of the policies included in
the Reference 2013 scenario, the results are presented distinguishing between three time periods, up
to 2020, 2020-30 and 2030-50. Up to 2020 the main
driver of developments is the achievement of the targets of the 20-20-20 Climate and Energy Package
and the EED. This period is characterised by increased penetration of RES and by strong energy
efficiency improvements. In parallel, until 2020, increasing international fossil fuel prices have considerable implications on energy demand. Moreover, the
reader should keep in mind that the period 2010-2015
is characterised by increased growth rates in energy
demand, as the economy is projected to be recovering from the recent economic crisis (see the macroeconomic data in Appendix 1).
In the decade 2020-30, the Reference scenario 2013
does not incorporate further targets with regard to
RES, but market dynamics, the on-going enabling
policies (such as streamlined authorisation procedures) and technology cost reductions allow for further penetration, albeit at lower growth rates. Also
energy efficiency measures implemented up to 2020
continue to deliver improvements in this period (as
the lifetime of new appliances, renovated buildings
etc. extends beyond the lifetime of the policies). As

RESULTS

with renewables, the improvement rates slow-down in


the absence of specific new policy measures. International fossil fuel prices are high but more stable in
comparison to the previous decade.
The ETS Directive continues to influence the energy
system, as the number of EU-ETS emissions allowances, continues decreasing linearly at 1.74% p.a. as
specified in the directive. This drives strong emission
reductions in particular in the power generation sector, including in the longer term up to 2050.

Overview of the implications of energy efficiency


policies and measures
The Reference 2013 scenario reflects all the policies
that have been adopted in recent years regarding
energy efficiency in the EU and in MS, including the
Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) (see Table 2). In
the following, we discuss these measures and provide a general overview of their effects on the energy
system, as well as their reflection in the PRIMES
model.
First of all, the EED (via its energy savings obligation)
and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
(EPBD) provisions bring about energy efficiency improvements in buildings through energy-related renovations of the existing building stock as well as improvements of the energy performance characteristics in new constructions. Renovations lead to better
insulation of the buildings (e.g. through window replacement, better faade insulation, roof insulation) or
changes in heating devices, resulting therefore in energy savings at a building level. After 2020, further
energy savings are induced as new households are
built following regional passive house standards.
Regarding heating systems, in the context of the Reference 2013 scenario, the replacement of equipment
is accelerated, as the energy efficiency measures
incorporated induce a more rapid uptake of advanced
technologies, whereas in the absence of such energy
efficiency measures, replacement with new, more
efficient technologies would occur only at the normal
end of lifetime of the heating equipment. Energy efficiency improvements in heating systems are acceler-

10

Summary results for EU28 and for each country are presented in
the Appendix.

EU Reference scenario 2013

ated further through synergies of the different efficiency measures, such as increased technology

27

RESULTS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

transparency (labelling), efficiency standards (ecodesign), highly efficient technical building systems

reflected in the modelling mechanisms, where economic agents are per se informed correctly about the

(EPBD), professional support through energy service


companies (ESCOs) and energy efficiency obliga-

prevailing and to some extent future prices., depending on the sector (there is less foresight in final de-

tions on energy distributors and/or retail sellers which

mand sectors with shorter equipment lifetimes than in

are therefore obliged to achieve significant energy


savings at their customer sites, etc. The same effi-

power generation).

ciency improvements apply for cooling/ventilation,


water heating and lighting.

The energy efficiency policies mentioned above

The PRIMES model can simulate different energy


efficiency policies with different modelling techniques.

costs (investment costs minus perceived benefits)


including risk factors (e.g. risk related to maintenance

The model-specific instruments used affect the con-

costs or technical reliability of advanced technologies

text and conditions under which individuals, in the


modelling represented by stylized agents per sector,

if chosen prior to fully established commercial maturity of such technologies). Such changes influence in

make their decisions on energy consumption and the


related equipment.

turn the mix of different technologies delivering the


same type of energy services. As in reality, the mod-

An example of such modelling instruments is the


modification of model parameters in order to mirror
technology performance or the effects of building
codes that are determined jointly in the process of
calibrating the interdependent model output to the
observations from the relevant statistical year (in this
exercise: 2010). Another technique is modification of
assumptions about technical and economic performance of future technologies that are available for
future choices by consumers within the model projection.
Furthermore, there are specific modelling instruments
for capturing the effects of measures that promote or
impose efficiency performance standards (BAT, ecodesign) and become increasingly important over time
as new items penetrate the market while old items
are getting out of use. Such modelling instruments
relate to individual technologies or groups of technologies and modify the perception of associated costs
by the modelled agents or influence the portfolio of
technologies that will be available for consumer
choice. Another type of measures are those which
improve consumer information through education,
labelling, correct metering and billing, energy audits
and technology support schemes aiming at inciting
consumers to select more efficient technologies.
Such measures are dealt with through the modelling
instruments discussed in this section or are directly

28

modify modelling parameters. This applies for example for the factors that affect perception of net energy

elling reflects the existence of mixes of technologies


and appliances for the same purpose with different
energy consumption and other characteristics, for
which economic actors have different perceptions
regarding costs. The factors affecting perception of
costs vary by equipment type. The efficiency policy
induced changes in the Reference scenario for
household appliances lead to perceived cost decreases in the more advanced technology options of
between 12 and 20% compared to the costs that
would have been perceived in the absence of the energy efficiency policies.
The penetration of ESCOs as explicitly incited by the
EED leads to an environment with reduced risks for
the consumers engaging in energy efficiency renovations, which can include both changes in the building
structure and changes in the energy equipment. This
is represented in the modelling by reduced discount
rates for certain sectors, mirroring the changes in the
decision making conditions and constraints of e.g.
households and services. Consequently, the (high)
subjective discount rates which prevail in capitalbudgeting decisions when such decisions are taken
solely by individuals, facing high information costs,
are reduced, moving closer to business interest rates.
In fact, the involvement of ESCO and the obligation
for energy distributors and retail sellers to facilitate
energy efficiency investment at the premises of final
customers enable individuals to make more cost-

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

effective choices thanks to the professional support of


e.g. ESCOs and utilities that are obliged to achieve

ings, as well as the introduction of more efficient appliances and better management of existing equip-

energy savings with their customers. In this way lower discount rates reduce the high weight that initial

ment in final energy use sectors. For the modelling of


the energy savings obligation or alternative measures

investment costs have compared with future energy

it has been assumed that the possible exemptions for

cost savings. In addition, these measures also induce


lower technical and financial risk, hence reducing the

ETS installations and transport are used.

perceived costs of new technologies and saving investments, (see also point above on perception of

Energy efficiency improvements also occur on the

costs). The discount rates used for the Reference


scenario 2013 are reported in the introductory section.

energy supply side, through the promotion of investments in CHP and in distributed steam and heat networks. These investments are combined with incentives on the consumer side to shift towards heating
through district heating, both in the residential and the
11

Another key modelling tool are efficiency values


(EVs) reflecting a variety of broad and sometimes un-

tertiary sectors .

specified instruments that bring about efficiency improvements. In the most concrete form these values

Improvements in the network tariff system and the

represent the price of hypothetical White Certificates,


reflecting the marginal costs of reaching energy savings obligations, e.g. for energy distributors and retail
sellers regarding energy efficiency at final customers
sites. In the Reference scenario, these values represent the implementation of the EED energy savings
obligations in domestic and service sectors, specific
building renovation policy efforts or a large range of
other pertinent measures, such as energy audits, energy management systems, good energy advice to
consumers on the various benefits of energy efficiency investment and better practices, targeted energy
efficiency education, significant voluntary agreements, etc.
In modelling terms therefore, the PRIMES model includes a number of instruments to reflect policies
leading to efficiency improvements.

regulations regarding the design and operation of gas


and electricity infrastructure are also required in the
context of the EED; moreover, the EED requires MS
and regulators to encourage and promote participation of demand side response in wholesale and retail
markets. In this context, the Reference 2013 scenario
assumes that intelligent metering is gradually introduced in the electricity system, enabling consumers
to more actively manage their energy use. This allows for demand responses so as to decrease peak
and over-charging situations, which generally imply
higher losses in the power grids. Thus, efficiency is
also improved as a result of the intelligent operation
of the systems.
Finally, some policies and measures that do not target energy efficiency directly, but for example target
emissions reduction, lead to significant additional energy efficiency benefits. Among these policies are the
ETS Directive (for details see section on ETS below),

The EED includes specific public procurement provisions which translate into a 3% p.a. refurbishment

the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD), and the CO2


standards for cars and vans. These policies drive en-

rate in the modelling and induce multiplier effects, as


the public sector assumes an exemplary role, i.e. pri-

ergy efficiency improvements along with fuel switching as a means of achieving reduction of emissions.

vate consumers are imitating the public sector energy


efficiency actions. Moreover, energy efficiency obliga-

The ESD defines legally binding national GHG emission targets in 2020 compared with 2005 for sectors

tions on energy distributors and retail sellers, as well


as alternative policy measures (e.g. financing, fiscal,
voluntary, and information measures) required by MS
according to the EED, drive further investment choices in improving thermal integrity of houses and build-

EU Reference scenario 2013

11

This incurs some rebound effects, e.g. houses connected to


district heating generally consume more heat than houses which
use individual (non-central) heating equipment, as district heating
is more cost efficient; such features are automatically integrated in
this price responsive energy modelling

29

RESULTS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

not covered by the EU ETS, ranging between -20%


and +20%, which shall lead to a EU-wide emission

son with the primary energy consumption (defined as


gross inland consumption minus non-energy use)

reduction by 10%. To achieve the targets, it also defines for each country a linear emission path between

projections of the Baseline 2007 scenario, which has


been used as the base for the energy savings objec-

2013 and 2020 which has to be satisfied each year

tive of the 20-20-20 climate and energy package. The

but is subject to a number of important flexibility


mechanisms, e.g. a carry-forward of emission alloca-

projected decrease reflects the aggregate effect on


energy consumption of all the policies that are includ-

tions, transfers between Member States and use of


international credits. It turned out that for the EU as a

ed in the Reference 2013 scenario.

whole the -10% target is achieved without the need


for modelling additional specific policy incentives.

TABLE 3: EFFECT OF POLICIES ADOPTED IN THE


REFERENCE 2013 SCENARIO ON ENERGY

With regard to the national target trajectories, in gen-

2020
2030
Primary energy consumption
-16.8%
-21.0%
- % change from Baseline 2007*
Primary energy consumption
-2.5%
-1.3%
- % change from Reference 2011
Gross inland consumption
-9.2%
-12.1%
- % change from 2005**
Primary energy consumption
-9.9%
-13.0%
- % change from 2005
* Time horizon of Baseline 2007 scenario was year 2030
** Year 2005 was the peak year for energy consumption in the EU

eral, flexibility both over time and between Member


States via the use of transfers has been assumed to
reflect the use of economically effective options to
meet the targets while respecting the clear Member
12

State indications on flexibility limitations .


For the CO2 standards for cars and vans, it is assumed, based on current reduction trends, that the
2020 CO2 targets for new vehicles set out in the regulations are achieved and remain constant afterwards
(for cars 95gCO2/km, for vans 147gCO2/km).
Policies on promoting RES also indirectly lead to energy efficiency gains; in statistical terms many RES,
such as hydro, wind and solar PV, have an efficiency
factor of 1; thus, the penetration of RES in all sectors,
in particular in power generation, induces energy savings. Other measures that foster energy efficiency are
financial instruments, in particular excise type taxes
(including those reflecting emissions); they are directly modelled in PRIMES allowing for the full reflection
of the effects of energy taxation and other financial
instruments on end user prices and energy consump-

13

CONSUMPTION

2050

1.2%
-11.1%
-11.8%

General overview of RES supporting measures


and the evolution of RES indicators
The Reference 2013 scenario starts from the assumption that the EU energy system evolves so that
the legally binding targets on RES (20% share of
gross final energy consumption from RES by 2020
and 10% specifically in the transport sector) are
achieved. In parallel, the framework for the penetration of RES significantly improves in the projection, as
the Reference 2013 scenario incorporates known
direct RES aids (e.g. feed-in tariffs) and other RES
enabling policies, such as priority access, grid development and streamlined authorisation procedures.
Obviously, RES penetration is also facilitated by the
ETS (depending on carbon prices).
As indicated in the Member States' submissions to

tion.

the EC, the national RES 2020 targets are generally


expected to be achieved at the Member State level,

Overall, the energy savings achieved in the Refer-

including only very limited recourse to the cooperation mechanism for those few countries that

ence 2013 scenario in 2020 amount to 16.8% (Table


3) using the metric defined for the 20% energy savings target. This figure is obtained through compari-

have not excluded making use of it. Drawing on current Member States plans to meet their legal obligations, the Reference 2013 scenario takes into ac-

12

Given the projected EU-wide compliance, it has been assumed


that transfers between Member States will be available at very low
prices just covering administrative costs, making it economically
unattractive to resort to the permitted use of international credits.
The relatively small costs and benefits of these emission transfers
have been included in the total system costs for 2020.

30

count the Member States projections on the trajectories of the RES shares by sector (RES-H&C for heat13

Primary energy consumption is defined as gross inland consumption minus non-energy use.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

ing and cooling, RES-T for transport and RES-E for


electricity) as expressed in the respective National

Overall, at the EU level, the RES share in gross final


energy consumption in 2020 reaches 20.9% (Figure

Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs).

10).

The PRIMES model has included detailed modelling

Beyond 2020, no additional RES targets are set.


However, RES enabling policies, the ETS and some
direct aids (depending on technologies and Member
State) continue; the direct aids are assumed to phase
out at a pace depending on RES technology. These
assumptions - in combination with technology progress (capital cost reduction due to learning effects) lead to further increase in RES penetration. In power
generation particularly, the continuation of the ETS
has a significant effect; until 2030, the share of RES
in power generation reaches 43%, and 50% by 2050.
In transport the increasing RES share is due to further penetration of biofuels and moderate electrification. Overall, RES in gross final energy consumption
account for 24% and 29% in 2030 and 2050 respectively.

of Member State policies representing a variety of


economic support schemes, including feed-in-tariffs.
A survey has been conducted for the purpose of the
Reference 2013 scenario to correctly represent current incentive schemes by Member State, including
their budget limitations when these exist. The existing
incentives have been then extrapolated to 2020 (if the
Member State does not include provisions up to
2020) in a conservative manner. The RES investments resulting from the overall policy and economic
context as well as incentives have been projected
assuming that investors evaluate project specific Internal Rates of Return including the financial incentives and decide upon investing accordingly. The projected RES investments implied directly for the financial incentives are considered as given by the market
model which decides upon the remaining potentially
necessary investments (among all power generation
technologies) based on pure economic considerations with a view to meeting the RES obligations.
Special fuel and electricity price elements (fees) are
accounted for in the model to recover fully all the
costs for the RES which are calculated through the
incentives and the contracting obligations over time.
The model further keeps track of the RES technology
vintages as projected and the outstanding fee is
raised throughout the economic lifetime of the thus
built power capacity, therefore also beyond 2020. For
Member States which do not achieve their RES target
through direct incentive policies, an additional instrument is included in the modelling the so-called RESvalue which is a dual variable for RES - introduced to
meet the targets by Member State. The value represents yet unknown policies to provide incentives for
RES such as further legislative facilitations, easier
site availability or grid access, or even direct financial
incentives, etc. The costs related to investments induced through the RES-value are fully recovered
through electricity prices.

EU Reference scenario 2013

Although direct incentives are phased out, in power


generation the investments in RES continue beyond
2020 due to three main factors: (1) continued learning
by doing of technologies including continued RDI especially for innovative RES, (2) the ETS price and (3)
extensions in the grid and improvement in marketbased balancing of RES as well as streamlined authorization and priority access. The feed-in tariffs and
other country specific financial incentives are assumed to be phased out beyond 2020 with the exception of incentives for innovative technologies such as
tidal, geothermal, solar thermal, solar PV and remote
off-shore wind where the phase out is more gradual.
As to the RES-values, they steeply decrease beyond
2020, in the absence of specific RES obligations after
2020; therefore RES investments beyond 2020 are
mainly driven by ETS carbon prices and are facilitated by non-financial supporting policies.
The learning by doing of RES technologies continues
throughout the projection period and allows for some
of the RES technologies to become economically
competitive already after 2020.
The ETS prices, which rise considerably towards the
end of the projection period (see next section), act as
an incentive and as the model simulates perfect foresight, the investments are spread throughout the projection period.

31

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

A further important element concerns the changes in


the electricity transmission system and the power
market. Through the improvements in the grid and
the Ten Years Network Development Plan of ENTSO-E the grid is better suited for up-taking higher
shares of RES. Furthermore, it is assumed in the
PRIMES modelling that the management of flows due
to the implementation of the internal market changes.
The EU target model is assumed to be successfully
implemented. The Reference scenario modelling includes flow based allocation of interconnection capacities, assuming a market model purely basing
trade on market forces throughout the EU internal
energy market with perfectly operating market coupling across all participating countries. This market is
assumed to operate successfully mainly beyond
2020. It implies that the balancing of RES occurs in a
very cooperative and cost-efficient manner avoiding
excessive investments in peak devices that would be
resulting if national perspectives in balancing were
persisting. Therefore the market improvements and
the EU-wide market coupling allows for rather low
balancing costs for RES, thus easing their market
penetration.

Overview of the EU ETS and projections on


carbon prices

Due to these changes in the system, the projected

narily estimated for the modelling as around 1750 Mt


CO2 cumulatively.

penetration of RES in power generation continues


beyond 2020, albeit at a decelerated pace compared
to the time period before 2020, and allows the share
of RES in electricity (RES-E) to reach 50% by 2050.
14

FIGURE 10: RES INDICATORS AT THE EU LEVEL

aviation, further industrial process emissions and certain industrial non-CO2 GHGs. The latter are integrated based on results of GAINS non-CO2 modelling
(see section on non-CO2 emission results) and
PRIMES then ensures consistent modelling of the
complete ETS. The annual volume of available EU
ETS allowances (quoted as allowances hereafter)
following the Directive provisions on the emissions
cap, is assumed to decrease by 1.74% p.a. from
2013 throughout the projection period, except for aviation for which the cap remains stable from 2013 onwards at 95% of average 2004-6 emission levels.
Aviation is modelled in the scope covered by EUROSTAT and therefore PRIMES based on fuels sold in
the EU, which corresponds to domestic and outgoing
international flights only.
International credits, priced at very low levels, are
expected to be used in the period until 2020, and
reaching the maximum permissible amount, prelimi-

The assumed cumulative emission cap 2008 to 2050


including the permissible international credits is
around 69500 Mt. The different allowance allocation
rules (auctioning, free allowances based on benchmarks) for the different sectors foreseen in the legis-

60%
50%
50%

40%
30%

The EU ETS is modelled in its amended scope (third


trading period from 2013 onwards), including also

Overall RES
share (%)

lation, and including the provisions for sectors at risk


of carbon leakage, are reflected in the modelling.

RES-E (%)
35%

29%
27%

20%

RES-H&C (%)

21%

10%
10%

14%

RES-T (%)

0%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

ETS prices are endogenously derived so as the cumulative ETS cap is met; the continuously decreasing
number of available allowances combined with the
significant allowance surplus which is only projected
to decrease after 2020 (see below) suggest that the
ETS price will follow only a slowly increasing trend
until 2025 and stronger increases thereafter; it is projected to reach 1010/tCO2 in 2020, 3510/tCO2 in
2030 and 10010/tCO2 in 2050 (Figure 11). The
PRIMES model simulates emission reductions in ETS
sectors as a response to current and future ETS pric-

14

32

Figures calculated according to the provision of RES Directive.

es (Figure 12), taking into account risk-averse behav-

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ior of market agents which leads to banking of allowances; perfect foresight of the carbon price progres-

FIGURE 11: PROJECTION OF THE ETS PRICE


120
100
100

sion in the period 2020-50 and that no borrowing from


the future is permitted. Increasing ETS prices induce

78

'10/tCO2

80

a switch in power generation towards the use of low

57

60

and zero carbon fuels or technologies (e.g. RES and


CCS). Moreover, the increase in the cost of energy,

40

reflecting the increasing ETS prices, supports energy


efficiency and fuel switching in the ETS sectors. Fi-

nally, increasing ETS prices indirectly influence energy efficiency in demand side sectors as well, since

RESULTS

35

20

14

10

15

FIGURE 12: AVAILABLE ALLOWANCES

AND

ETS GHG

EMISSIONS PROJECTION

expenditures for ETS allowances are passed through

3000

to consumer prices, notably in electricity prices.


2500

With the current and projected low level of the ETS


Mt CO2

2000

prices, the ETS emissions target for 2020 is achieved


as there is also a large amount of additional policies

1500
Emissions
1000
500

and because the economic crisis substantially re-

duced the industrial production as well as power demand and thus GHG emissions. The projection of

Interpolated values shown in faint color

FIGURE 13: PROJECTION OF ALLOWANCES SURPLUS

tion of the ETS legislation; should this not to be the


case, ETS prices would drop considerably below the

3000

2500

projected levels in the short term.


Mt CO2

2000

In the longer term, the trend of very low carbon prices


is reversed; beginning in 2030 and throughout the

1000
500

period to 2050, the level of the ETS price is increasing significantly. This is the consequence of decreas-

ply factors, namely of the delayed technology developments of CCS, public acceptance problems with
nuclear energy and CO2 storage, the updated offshore wind cost assumptions and phasing out of RES
support as well as the trends in world fuel prices,
where a decoupling of oil and gas prices takes place,
with gas prices remaining in the longer term at relatively stable levels.

2050

2048

2046

2044

2042

2040

2038

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2008

ing allowances supply following the implementation of


the linear reduction factor that reduces the cap substantially over time and a combination of energy sup-

1500

2010

ETS prices is based on the assumptions that actors


are risk-averse and have strong trust in the continua-

Allowances

2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050

implemented, particularly RES support policies but


also the EED, which influence also the ETS sectors,

Interpolated values shown in faint color

Phase II of the ETS has seen a rapid build-up of an


allowances surplus which is banked into phase III,
resulting from lower than expected emissions caused
by the economic crisis unfolding as of 2008 and the
early use of international credits. This surplus of allowances continues to increase in the short term, although there is economic recovery in the time period
up to 2020. Together with the indicated drivers and
complementary policies, risk-averse behaviour contributes to further banking of allowances until 2020
15

EU Reference scenario 2013

Allowances include the permissible use of international credits.

33

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

16

(Figure 13) . Beyond this time period, the gradually


increasing ETS prices lead to a progressive use of

nuclear technologies would operate with lower efficiencies.

previously banked allowances, which results in an


almost complete exhaustion of the projected surplus

The main drivers of decreasing GIC are the developments in final energy demand. These reflect the implemented energy efficiency policies that include,
among others, the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED),
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD),
the Eco-design Directive and a host of implementing
Regulations for specific products, CO2 emissions
standards for light duty vehicles etc. Following existing legislation until 2020, the assumed implementation of these measures is delivering significant energy
efficiency improvements with effects going also beyond 2020. High international energy prices, as well
as the relatively low growth rates projected for the
energy-intensive industries, further reduce energy
consumption. Beyond 2030, in the absence of additional policies on efficiency, final energy consumption
follows an increasing pace, albeit slow. It is thus visible that the developments of the energy system in the
decades 2010-20 and 2020-30 will have already set
the ground for an economy with lower energy intensity. Finally, the ETS continues to indirectly support
energy efficiency in the ETS sectors, throughout the
projection period.

17

the ETS price has increased substantially .

Energy consumption
The Reference 2013 scenario is characterized by
accelerating energy efficiency improvements, in particular until 2020 and continuing throughout the remaining projection period as demonstrated by the
declining energy intensity of GDP. Gross inland consumption (GIC) and GDP growth decouple (Figure
14), a trend that is enhanced by the newly introduced
legislation especially on energy efficiency and revised
assumptions about economic growth. As becomes
apparent in Figure 14, the shift from past increasing
trends of energy consumption is occurring in the period 2005-10, where apart from relevant legislation, the
economic crisis also has a downward effect on energy consumption. The downward trend on energy consumption commenced before the onset of the economic crisis, with EU energy consumption having
peaked in 2006. Despite the gradual economic recovery after the crisis, GIC does not resume growth,
instead it continuously decreases until 2035 and
demonstrates a moderate increase thereafter, yet
staying well below the 2010 level.
The projection indicates a shift in the fuel mix of GIC
over time towards renewable energy forms (Figure
16). This also contributes towards lower energy intensity since many RES technologies (e.g. hydro,
solar, wind) have, in statistical terms, an efficiency
factor of 1 thus, the penetration of RES in all sectors,
in particular in power generation, induces a further
reduction in GIC, given that alternative fossil fuel or

16

The absolute amount and time profile of the presented surplus is


valid for the described and partly simplifying modelling assumptions taken, for example due to the cut-off date and given that the
model proceeds in five year steps and the yearly data is based on
interpolations and estimates. Other Commission analyses may
therefore present different and more up to date results.
17
ETS back-loading is not included in the modelling as no corresponding legislation exists at the time of this analysis.

34

FIGURE 14: GIC IN RELATION TO GDP


24
22

2,000

GIC

20

1,800
1,600

18
1,400

16
14

1,200

12

1,000

10
8

800

GDP

600

6
4

400

200

GIC (Mtoe)

es (perfect foresight), banked allowances are used


particularly in the end of the projection period where

GDP (in trillion Euro'10)

by 2050. As emitters perceive the future carbon pric-

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

18

FIGURE 15: ENERGY INTENSITY PROJECTIONS BY SECTOR


Energy intensity indicators (2010=100)
120

100

Entire economy (GIC


over GDP)

80

Transport (Energy
on GDP)

60

Residential (Energy
on Private Income)

40

Industry (Energy on
Value added)
Tertiary (Energy on
Value added)

20

RESULTS

In addition to the considerable energy savings, the


projection also indicates a switch in the fuel mix of
final energy consumption over time, in favour of renewable energy forms (Figure 17). This shift is driven
by the binding targets on RES and energy efficiency
policies until 2020 with effects continuing until 2030,
and by the ETS even beyond 2030. The share of oil
decreases, but remains at a relatively high level as
transportation is projected to remain dominated by oil.
Consumption of solid fuels declines considerably
throughout the projection period.
FIGURE 18: TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR
Electricity demand by sector (TWh)
4500

Energy branch

4000
3500

FIGURE 16: GROSS INLAND CONSUMPTION


1800
1600
1400

Mtoe

1200

10

Natural gas

Tertiary
20

2000

24

6
3

7
4

27

27

28

27

25

25

26

31

33

30

29

1500
12

Households
13

25

24

500

25

Industry
(incl.electricity
for process CCS)

16

27

2010 2020 2030 2050


33

Oil

Solids

1000

24

35

200
0

17

12

600
400

7
3

13

Electricity
(net
imports)
Nuclear

9
2

2500

Renewable
energy
forms

1000
800

Transport

3000

Shares in %

2000

Shares in %

Transmission
distribution
losses

5000

14

32

Average annual growth rates


of electricity demand (%)

31

11

Gross generation

2010 2020 2030 2050

Transmission distribution losses


Energy branch

FIGURE 17: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION


1400

Transport
7
5

1200

10

11

11

22

24

Households

Renewables

21

1000

28

Mtoe

Electricity
600
Gas

400
200

Oil

Shares in %

Steam Distrib.
800

Industry (incl.electricity for process CCS)


-3.0

23
22

40

36

21

34

21

32

Solids

Tertiary

Industry
(incl.electricity
for process
CCS)
'40-'50
0.5

-2.0

-1.0

Households

Tertiary

Transport

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Energy branch

Transmission
distribution
losses

Gross
generation

1.1

0.6

1.2

1.6

0.9

0.8

'30-'40

0.0

1.5

0.8

2.0

1.0

1.2

0.9

'20-'30

-0.1

1.2

1.0

3.4

-0.8

1.1

0.7

'10-'20

0.7

0.1

0.1

2.8

-1.9

0.2

0.2

'00-'10

-0.2

1.7

2.9

-0.6

0.2

-1.0

1.0

2010 2020 2030 2050

18

The ratio between the energy use and GDP is influenced not
only by energy efficiency in transport but also by the evolution of
the volume of transport activity to GDP. Therefore, in Figure 24 the
relationship between transport energy consumption and transport
activity is presented in addition to the relationship between
transport energy consumption and GDP.

EU Reference scenario 2013

In final energy demand, electrification is a persisting


trend (Figure 18). This is due to two effects: a shift
towards electricity for heating and cooling (due to
higher demand for air conditioning and the introduction of electric heat pumps) and a continued increase
of electric appliances in the residential and the tertiary sector (mainly IT, leisure and communication
appliances). It is also the result of CO2 standards for
light duty vehicles and further electrification of rail
leading to higher uptake of electricity in the transport

35

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

CONSUMPTION IN THE INDUSTRY SECTOR


Average annual change of energy consumption
per unit of physical industrial output (%)
per unit of physical industrial
2010-00 2020-10 2030-20
output (%)
Iron and steel
-1.42
-0.93
-0.53
Non ferrous metals
-2.02
-0.54
-0.40
Chemicals
-3.30
-0.68
-1.20
Non metallic minerals
-0.88
-0.44
-0.46
Paper and pulp
0.50
-0.79
-0.94
Food, drink and tobacco
-0.60
-0.57
-0.99
Engineering
-1.40
-0.51
-0.71
Textiles
-3.22
-0.17
-0.89
Other industries
-0.98
-0.74
-0.87

350
300

Other industries
Textiles

250

Engineering

36

Paper and pulp

200
150

Non metallic minerals


Chemicals

100

Non ferrous metals

50

Iron and steel

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

FIGURE 20: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE


INDUSTRIAL SECTOR BY ENERGY FORM
350

8
Renewables

250

Heat/Steam
distr.

200

Electricity

150

Gas

11
6

13

14

31
31

SHares in %

300

Mtoe

32

30

31

30

100

33

29

Oil
50
Solids

11

10

12

12

11

8
9

2050

2045

2040

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

These trends are accompanied by a decline in the


use of coal and oil, to the benefit of renewable energy
forms (biomass and waste) and to a lesser extent
electricity (Figure 20). This fuel shift is driven by the
mandatory emission reductions that industrial activities should achieve in the context of the Integrated
Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) and the
Large Combustion Plant Directives (LCP), as well as
because of national action for complying with the
binding national targets of the Effort Sharing Decision
(ESD) in the short-term (concerning the non-ETS industries) and the increasing ETS prices (concerning
the ETS industries) mainly in the long-term. Switch to
biomass and waste is also driven by the upward trajectory of fossil fuel prices and is compatible with the
need for resource-efficiency, which will be one of the
drivers of global competitiveness. Finally, the provi-

-0.30
-0.39
-0.77
-0.03
-0.54
-0.52
-0.46
-0.51
-0.49

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Food, drink and tobacco

Overall, the trend on energy consumption is clearly


upward for the period until 2015, following the recovery from the economic crisis; beyond 2015 and
throughout the remaining projection period, energy
efficiency improvements offset the effects from the
growth of sectorial activity, and as a result energy
consumption appears to change only moderately over
time (Figure 19).

2050-30

FIGURE 19: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE

2035

Industrial sector
The activity of the industrial sector is projected to recover from the current crisis and follow an increasing
pace in the future, with the non-energy intensive sectors growing faster. This implies that energy consumption of the sector will grow at a slower rate relative to the activity of the sector. In parallel, following
the trends of previous years, energy efficiency of production processes in the sector improves over time in
order for the sector to remain globally competitive,
with higher gains observed in the period until 2030
(Table 4) supported by the implementation of corresponding policies.

TABLE 4: AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE OF ENERGY

Mtoe

In the following section, we present in detail the


trends on final energy consumption by sector.

sions on cogeneration in the EED in addition to the


Cogeneration Directive promote the penetration of
highly efficient cogeneration and the use of waste
heat for steam generation in industrial sites.

2030

sector. In the period until 2020, when energy efficiency policies are being implemented, the growth rate of
electricity demand is less than 0.5% per year up to
2020; thereafter, without specific energy efficiency
policies the electricity demand growth rate becomes
almost 1% per year.

2025

RESULTS

2010 2020 2030 2050

Residential sector
Energy demand in the residential sector is projected
to stabilize in the short term. After 2015 and throughout the remaining projection period, final residential
energy demand remains below the level of 2010. This
is attributable to the fact that the portfolio of policies

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

and regulatory provisions (notably EPBD) for the residential sector that is assumed in the Reference 2013
scenario is very rich, and drives considerable energy
efficiency savings.

RESULTS

FIGURE 21: IMPROVEMENTS IN EFFICIENCY OF THE ENERGY


EQUIPMENT IN THE
COMPARED TO 2005

RESIDENTIAL

SECTOR

% change from 2005


62

In general, energy efficiency in the residential sector


(as well as the tertiary sector) can be improved by:

45
28

- using more efficient energy equipment (e.g. lighting,

17

electric appliances, heating and cooling appliances),

Heating

thermal integrity of buildings), or

the implementation of relevant policies. These policies include notably the EED including the savings
obligation on distribution companies and retail sellers,
the provision on the exemplary role of public authorities as well as all the other provisions stimulating
more energy efficient behaviour. In addition, ecodesign standards as well as energy performance of

2020

2030

2050

The main reason behind the continuous electrification


of the sector, as demonstrated in Figure 22, is the
increasing penetration of electric appliances and their
quality improvements. This concerns mainly black
appliances (mobile phones, TVs, PCs etc.). At the
same time eco-design regulations drive significant
energy savings in specific electricity uses; the average efficiency of appliances and lighting improves by
approximately 25% in 2020 and by 45% in 2030, relative to 2005.
FIGURE 22: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE RESIDENTIAL
SECTOR

buildings requirements as well as "soft" measures,


such as public campaigns play a role along with

By energy use
350

measures improving transparency for allowing more


energy efficient choices (Labelling Directives).

Electric
Appliances

300

Mtoe

Water heating

150

Cooking

13

7
1

7
1

23

1
13

1
12

7
2

60

7
4

54

Heating
0

2010 2020 2030

2050

13

14

By energy form

2005. Energy consumed for heating purposes drops


to 2000 levels already by 2020 and further decreases

350

thereafter (Figure 22). Regarding the use of different

250

Heat/Steam
distr.

200

Electricity

Renewables

Mtoe

300

150
Gas

16

16

25

28

23
36

38
37

100

37
35

Oil
50
14

ally, the use of heating oil decreases to the benefit of


gas, especially beyond 2030, in part because of the

64

17

50

mand for heating and cooling purposes decreasing by


8% in 2020, 12% in 2030 and 17% in 2050 relative to

is partly the reason of the increasing shares of electricity consumption in the residential sector. Addition-

Cooling

improving thermal integrity of houses and efficiency


of heating appliances, with overall final energy de-

energy forms, increased efficiency requirements drive


a shift towards the use of electric heat pumps, which

14

2
14

65

100

EPBD and the EED), they drive investment choices

12

Lighting

250

200

Regarding the energy efficiency obligations on buildings and strict building codes (included both in the

Specific electricity uses

Shares in %

ment across the EU which is related to the effects of

Cooling

Shares in %

In the Reference 2013 scenario, there is a general


improvement in the efficiency of energy using equip-

26

15

- upgrading energy characteristics of buildings (e.g.

- inducing changes in energy consuming behaviour.

26

46

Solids

11

9
6
3
2
2
2010 2020 2030 2050
4

relatively low natural gas prices (in comparison to oil).

EU Reference scenario 2013

37

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

Tertiary sector (services and agriculture)


Projections of final energy demand in the tertiary sector follow the same trends as for the residential sector; energy consumption decline strongly between
2010 and 2020, followed by a decade of moderate
decrease and a slight increase after 2030. Energy
efficiency gains brought about by eco-design policies,
energy efficiency policies stemming notably from obligations under the EED and policies on the energy
performance of buildings, are very significant, and
over-compensate the effects of increasing sectorial
activity up to 2030, driving final energy demand below
2010 peak levels throughout the entire projection period. Marked efficiency progress is observed both for
heating and for specific electricity consumption, in
particular in the medium term (2020-30), driving energy consumption downwards in the period 2010-30,
contrasting past increasing trends (Figure 23). Beyond 2030, where no additional energy saving policies are implemented, energy consumption resumes
an increasing, albeit slow, pace of growth.
FIGURE 23: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE TERTIARY
SECTOR
By energy use
200
15

Electric
appliances

180

160

Agricultural uses

100
80

Other heat uses

Shares in %

120
Mtoe

14

Lighting

140

19
6

19
2
15

17
8

22

27

2
15

17
10

2
14

16
11

60
Cooling

40

43

34

30

Heating
0
2010 2020 2030 2050

By energy form

180

Renewables

2
7

Heat/Steam
distr.

41

5
7

6
7

6
6

Mtoe

Electricity

100
80

Gas

52

Shares in %

45
120

58

60

26
22

Oil

19
19

20
0

Freight transport follows a similar trend to passenger


activity after 2030, resulting from the slow-down of
GDP growth as well as from the shift of economic
activities towards services and limits to distant sourcing and off-shoring.
Road transport is expected to maintain its dominant
role in passenger transport by 2050, despite growing
Passenger cars alone would represent about 67% of
total passenger transport activity in 2050 although
their modal share would decrease by about 7 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. As previously mentioned, the growth slowdown for passenger
cars activity could be explained by the car ownership

Solids

Member States but also by the high congestion levels, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the ageing of
the EU population. Transport activity of buses and
coaches and powered 2-wheelers would grow at

29
40

Beyond 2030, the activity of passenger transport continues to grow albeit at slow rates, as a result of stagnant and after 2040 decreasing population, deceleration in GDP growth and saturation of passenger car
demand.

which is close to saturation levels in many EU15

160
140

Transport sector
The activity of the transport sector is growing significantly with the highest growth rates occurring from
2010 to 2030, driven by developments in economic
activity. This concerns both passenger and freight
transport. Freight transport in particular is growing at
higher rates than passenger transport, following more
closely the GDP developments.

at lower pace relative to other modes (0.6% p.a.).


39

20

200

Electrification of the tertiary sector is very significant.


The considerable increase in electricity consumption
concerns primarily the use of electric appliances and
the use of electricity for heating and cooling purposes
(heat pumps). The use of heating oil and gas follows
a decreasing trend, which is steeper in the period up
to 2030, attributable to energy efficiency policies.
Throughout the projection period, gas substitutes oil
for heating purposes.

15
13
10
2
1
1
1
2010 2020 2030 2050

slightly higher rates than passenger cars activity by


2050, 0.7% p.a. and 1.1% p.a., respectively. Overall,
the share of road transport (including buses and
coaches and powered 2-wheelers in addition to passenger cars) in total passenger transport activity

38

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

would go down from about 84% in 2010 to 76% in


2050.
Air transport is projected to be the highest growing of
all passenger transport modes, going up by 133%
between 2010 and 2050 (2.1% p.a.), mainly due to
the large increase of international trips (e.g. to emerging economies in Asia). Higher potential for air traffic
growth (3.1% p.a. for 2010-2050), including for international holiday trips, is expected in EU12 MS due to
their less mature markets and faster growing GDP
per capita. Aviation activity in EU15 would increase at
a lower rate compared to EU12 due to weaker growth
of GDP per capita and the available capacity at the
airports. Overall, air transport is expected to increase
its modal share by about 5 percentage points, from
8% in 2010 to 13% in 2050, and become the second

RESULTS

moderate increase at EU level (0.7% p.a. between


2010 and 2050).
Freight transport activity showed steady growth between 2005 and 2007, continuing the 1995-2005
trend. However, the economic crisis led to a reduction
of activity in the subsequent years resulting in lower
levels in 2010 compared to 2005. The projections
show an increase in the total freight transport activity
by about 57% (1.1% p.a.) between 2010 and 2050.
Notably, the strong growth in activity (1.7% p.a.) in
the short-term (up to 2015), driven by GDP developments, allows the recovery of freight transport activity
to pre-crisis levels.
Freight traffic shows strong correlation with GDP
growth until 2030. The completion of the TEN-T core

most important passenger mode after road transport.

network by 2030 and of the comprehensive network


by 2050 is expected to provide more adequate

Passenger rail activity is projected to increase by

transport infrastructure coverage and support a concentration of trans-national traffic and long-distance

79% during 2010-2050 (1.5% p.a.) and expand its


modal share by 2 percentage points (from 8% in 2010
to 10% in 2050), driven in particular by the completion of the TEN-T core network by 2030 and of the
comprehensive network by 2050. High-speed rail
sees a significant increase in terms of volume (2.5%
p.a. during 2010-2050) and share as a result of the
infrastructure build-up and the upgrade of existing
railway lines. About 37% of passenger rail traffic, expressed in passenger-kilometres, would be carried by
high-speed rail by 2050.
Passenger rail competes with both road and air
transport. In EU15 a relatively important share of additional demand would be covered by rail (in most
cases high-speed rail where investments are foreseen), considering the saturation of passenger car
demand. The increase of fossil fuel prices also shifts
part of the passenger road traffic to rail. In addition,
high-speed rail attracts demand from short-haul air
travel.

flows. It is also expected to provide support for logistic functions and improve inter-modal integration
(road, rail, and inland navigation), through the innovative information management systems which are part
of the network, and reduce the time losses caused by
road congestion. As already mentioned, beyond
2030, weaker growth prospects together with shifts in
GDP composition towards services and information
activities and limits to distant sourcing and off-shoring
contribute to a certain weakening in freight transport
activity.
Road freight traffic is projected to increase by about
55% between 2010 and 2050 (1.1% p.a.), but growth
is unevenly distributed between the EU15 and EU12.
The highest growth in road freight transport activity
would take place in the EU12 (72% for 2010-2050,
equivalent to 1.4% p.a.) where a strong correlation
with GDP growth can be observed. Overall, road
freight sees a slight reduction in its modal share, from
71% in 2010 to 70% in 2050.

19

Inland navigation holds a small share of total passenger transport activity and projections show a

By 2050, rail freight features the highest growth

19

to 1.5% p.a.) and increases its modal share from almost 16% in 2010 to 18% in 2050. The significant

Inland navigation includes inland waterways and national maritime transport.

among the freight transport modes (79%, equivalent

increase in rail freight transport activity is mainly driv-

EU Reference scenario 2013

39

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

en by the completion of the TEN-T core and comprehensive network; thus improving the competitiveness
of the mode.
Inland navigation traffic also benefits from the recovery in GDP growth and the completion of the TEN-T
core and comprehensive network, including support
for the logistic functions and improved inter-modal
integration, and is thus projected to grow by 41% between 2010 and 2050 (0.9% p.a.). However, the relatively stronger growth in road and rail traffic leads to a
slight decrease in its modal share, from about 13% in
2010 to 12% in 2050.
Historically, final energy demand in the transport sector has grown in line with the transport activity. However, despite the projected upward trends in transport
activity beyond 2010, final energy demand stabilizes
by 2050 to levels marginally lower than those observed in 2010. The projections show some weak
growth in energy demand (0.3% p.a.) in the shortterm (up to 2015), mainly driven by the strong recovery in the freight transport activity following the crisis.
Beyond 2015 however, energy demand is decoupling
from transport activity (Figure 24).
FIGURE 24: TRENDS IN TRANSPORT ACTIVITY AND ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
260

GDP

240

Index 1995=100

220
200
180

160
140
120
100
80

Freight
transport
activity
Passenger
transport
activity
Energy for
Freight
transportation
Energy for
Passenger
transportation

The main driver of low final energy demand from


transport relative to transport activity is the improvement in fuel efficiency driven by policies, in particular
for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
(Figure 26) and the uptake of more efficient technologies for other transport means. In order to comply
with the regulations on CO2 emissions standards for
Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs), covering passenger cars
and light commercial vehicles (LCVs), manufacturers

40

have to introduce more fuel efficient LDVs into the


market. In particular, in passenger road transport energy efficiency of vehicles improves by 21% in 2020
and 35% in 2030 relative to 2005 (Figure 26), leading
to a decline in energy demand in passenger road
transport by 2030. Beyond 2030, energy demand of
passenger road transport stabilizes. Efficiency gains,
driven by increasing fuel prices and techno-economic
developments, evolve at slower pace in lack of more
stringent CO2 emissions regulations.
FIGURE 25: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT
Shares in %

Mtoe
400
350

14

16

17

17

36

36

43

42

Inland
navigation

Aviation

31

300
250
200

34

Rail

150
100

Freight
road
transport

52

46

50
0
2010 2020 2030 2050

Other passenger transport modes also contribute to


the decoupling between activity and final energy demand. However this contribution is more apparent in
the longer term, from 2030 onwards. Aviation activity
increases considerably throughout the projection period leading to increased energy demand. Nonetheless, energy demand grows less than activity as aviation experiences high efficiency gains owing to the
introduction of more energy efficient aircrafts and the
20
renewal of the fleet . Efficiency improvements in aviation amount to 12% in 2020 relative to 2005, and
31% by 2030. Passenger rail features some relatively
lower rates of improvement in efficiency by 2030
compared to road and aviation. In addition to the currently high efficiency of rail relative to other transport
means, the long lifetime of the rolling stock delays its
renewal and therefore the improvements in efficiency.

20

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set ambitious targets to curb fuel consumption and mitigate GHG emissions
from aviation in its Carbon Neutral Growth initiative, according to
which the aviation industry has committed to an average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year by 2020 and a cap on aviation CO2 emissions from 2020 (carbon-neutral growth). By 2050
the CO2 emissions from aviation should be reduced by 50% relative to 2005 levels. Source:
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/pages/envi
ronment.aspx.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

The improvements would be mainly attributed to fuel


substitution; in particular switching from diesel to
electricity in areas where electrification is an economically viable option and in line with the provisions of
specific initiatives by MS.
FIGURE 26: TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
% change of consumed toe/Mpkm from 2005
Passenger transport

Road transport

Rail

Aviation

-12
-18

-18

-21

-22
-31

-31

-35

-35
-39

-40

RESULTS

due to their small share in energy demand. Overall,


fuel consumption in road freight transport per Mtkm is
projected to decrease by 6% in 2020, 15% in 2030
and 22% in 2050 relative to 2005.
Freight rail follows similar developments as passenger rail; it sees moderate improvements in specific
energy consumption, partly driven by the substitution
of diesel by electricity. However, by 2050 the efficiency gains in rail freight are somewhat higher than for
road freight, in lack of specific policies for CO 2 emissions reduction or energy efficiency of newly registered HGVs. By 2050, improvements in specific fuel
consumption for inland navigation amount to 24%
relative to 2005, slightly lower than those achieved in
rail freight.

-46

% change of consumed toe/Mtkm from 2005


Freight transport

Road transport

Rail

-6

-6

-7

Inland navigation

-13
-15

-16

-19
-23

-22

-20
-24

-28
2020

2030

2050

Efficiency improvements also take place in freight


transportation, and moderate the effect of the increasing activity (which is growing stronger than for
passenger transport) on energy demand. Heavy
goods vehicles (HGVs), which throughout the projection period account for more than 80% of energy consumed in freight transport, undergo improvements in
specific fuel consumption driven in particular by the
increasing fossil fuel prices. Fuel costs represent a
considerable part of operational costs of HGVs and
their minimization is among the main objectives of
HGV manufacturers and fleet operators. Improvements in technology, related among others to vehicle
design or vehicle powertrain, aim to reduce vehicle
specific fuel consumption. The reductions in vehicle
specific energy consumption of HGVs become more
apparent in the long term, as the renewal rate of the
HGV fleet is slow. LCVs on the other hand, show high
efficiency gains already by 2020 as a result of CO 2
emissions regulations, but their effect on energy demand of freight road transportation is not significant

EU Reference scenario 2013

The obligation to meet CO2 standards for LDVs is


reflected in the change of the transport fuel mix
(Figure 27). Emissions performance standards for
vehicles together with favourable taxation of diesel by
some Member States result in wide scale substitution
of petrol with diesel in conventional passenger cars,
and favor the introduction of diesel hybrid vehicles
21
(Figure 28) . Consumption of petrol declines considerably until 2030 and stabilizes from thereon to 2050,
as no more stringent requirements for fuel-efficiency
are introduced. Consumption of diesel increases by
2015 and stabilizes in the period 2015 to 2050, becoming the dominant fuel in passenger cars and continuing to be the primary fuel for heavy duty vehicles
(HGVs, buses and coaches). Heavy duty vehicles
have little potential to switch to alternative fuels such
as LNG as this would require significant investments
in infrastructure build-up across the EU, which is not
assumed to be the case in the Reference 2013 sce22
nario .
Consumption of jet fuels in aviation increases steadily
by 2050 due to the increase in transport activity and
despite improvements in efficiency; fossil fuels continue to dominate, and only after 2035 biofuels (biokerosene) slowly start penetrating the aviation fuel
mix - driven by high ETS prices.
21

Despite the relatively higher carbon intensity of diesel, dieselfueled vehicles are more fuel economic than gasoline-fueled vehicles.
22
The Clean Power for Transport package, adopted by the European Commission in January 2013, is not reflected in the Reference scenario 2013.

41

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

Biofuels in general, make significant inroads in


transport by 2020, driven by the legally binding target

the RES-T target, biofuels maintain their share as a


result of improved economics of the biofuel supply

Finally, other energy forms such as LPG and natural


gas maintain a rather small share in the final energy
demand of the transport sector. Passenger cars running on LPG and CNG see a moderate increase especially stemming from countries with re-fuelling infrastructure already in place; in Member States where
such infrastructure is currently not in place the uptake
of CNG and LPG vehicles on a commercial basis is
limited in the Reference 2013 scenario.

side and the increasing fossil fuel prices.

FIGURE 28: STRUCTURE OF PASSENGER CARS FLEET AND

of 10% renewable energy in the transport sector


(RES-T target). In parallel with the shift towards diesel vehicles, the share of biodiesel consumption increases, also driven by its uptake in road freight
transport. Beyond 2020, with no further tightening of

FUEL CONSUMPTION

FIGURE 27: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND IN TRANSPORT BY FUEL


4

Shares in %

Mtoe
400

350

300
250

200

2
3
1
8

16

17

6
8

2
4
2
8

7
4

Biofuels

100

Jet fuel

1
7
8

25
60

17

4
4
Fuel cell

6
8

7
1
9

7
3
9

39

32

29

LPG and CNG


53

36

41

Electricity

Hybrid

Biofuels

18
Gasoline conv.
53

36

44

37

55
57

30

Diesel conv.

H2
LPG and CNG

Plug-in and
BEV

26

Gas

Fuel oil

39

46

50

52

Gasoline
Diesel

56

2010

2020

2030

2050

2010 2020 2030 2050

Diesel
Gasoline

14

Methane, LPG and


others
Electricity

150

50

2
2

Shares in energy consumption by


cars (%)

Shares in car stock (%)

TYPE

Power generation

26
17

13

11

2010 2020 2030 2050

Electricity consumption in transport sees a steady


increase as a result of rail electrification and the penetration of alternative electric powertrains in road
transport. Electrically chargeable vehicles (EVs), in
particular in the segment of passenger cars and
LCVs, emerge around 2020 as a result of EU and
national policies as well as incentive schemes aiming
to boost their penetration. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)
hold the largest share among EVs due to their ability
to use both power-trains alternatively (internal combustion engine or electric motor) and they would represent two thirds of EVs in 2050. Some improvements in battery costs are assumed to occur allowing
for a decrease in capital costs together with slow increase in infrastructure availability. The penetration of
electric vehicles occurs mainly in niche markets, in
urban areas for urban commuting and municipal
fleets, due to limited range of vehicles, which is assumed to persist. By 2050 the share of electric vehicles in the total stock of cars reaches approximately
8% (Figure 28).

Developments in power generation in the Reference


2013 scenario are driven by the implementation of
RES policies to the horizon of 2020 and by growing
ETS carbon prices also in the longer term, especially after 2030. Both induce high level of RES penetration in power generation throughout the projection
period, in particular variable RES, which are demanding in terms of balancing services and system reserves. In order to support the penetration of RES,
the requirements for capacity back-up by thermal
plants are high, and are met in the projection by investments on flexible gas plants and by extensions of
lifetime of old (typically open cycle) plants.
In the short term, in particular up to 2020, developments are characterized by two main aspects: 1) the
necessity to achieve the RES targets, and 2) planned
investments in existing and new power plants. The
first necessity stimulates RES growth whereas the
second determines to a large extent the developments in conventional power plants. Considering the
very long lead times for large (in particular) conventional plants, investments that will take place up to
2020 are already known today. The PRIMES model

42

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

fully includes in its database all currently known


planned investments, including lifetime extensions as

Also the assumptions on nuclear have radically


changed compared to previous projections based on

well as planned decommissioning, based on commercial databases (e.g. Platts) and plans of large

recent policy developments, changed economic situation and detailed surveys into the possibilities of ex-

companies in all the Member States. The projections

tending the lifetime of existing power plants. The pos-

of large investments in this decade are strongly determined by such known investments and decommis-

sibilities of extension of lifetime for power plants have


been analytically assessed through a plant by plant

sioning plans.

survey based on the age, construction type (generation) of the power plant and national legislation. The

The Reference 2013 scenario also considers country

construction of new power plants on new sites (i.e. in


locations where there are currently no power plants)

specific potentials for RES penetration in addition to


the specificities by Member States in policies regarding nuclear and CCS options. Moreover, the scenario
assumes completion of the internal energy market
and the successful implementation of the 10-year
network development plan of ENTSO-E (TYNDP),
which entails considerable investments in electricity
transmission systems. These infrastructure developments include refurbishment or construction of
transmission and distribution power lines, the extension of the grid, enabling capacity additions and supporting the integration of the high levels of intermittent
RES in the system. Moreover, they allow for a general increase of net transfer capacities (NTC) values,
thus leading to a higher potential for trade within the
internal energy market. The possibility to make more

has become considerably more expensive based also


on issues related to public acceptance. The construction of new power plants on existing nuclear sites is
limited based on surveys which assess the possibilities (e.g. based on spatial limitations) of expansion in
existing locations. The model updates concerning
limitations, the new national legislation and the higher
costs lead to lower perspectives for nuclear than in
past projections.
Electricity generation
In the short term, the set of EU and national specific
policies that promote RES (notably implementation of
supportive financial instruments such as feed-in-

extensive use of interconnectors and new transmis-

tariffs) drive significant penetration of RES in power


generation. The binding short-term RES targets are

sion grids allows for use of sites with lower costs,


even when these are far away from consumption cen-

assumed to be achieved in the Reference 2013 scenario. RES expansion is also facilitated by the as-

tres. As a result the fully interlinked system allows for


better optimisation of resources and capacity expan-

sumed developments of grids and new equipment for

sion.

controlling grid operation, especially in the case of


smart grids. Up to 2020, the share of RES in electrici-

Regarding carbon capture and storage (CCS) the

ty generation (RES-E indicator ) reaches 35%, a


significant increase from the 20% in 2010. Beyond

23

PRIMES model has been updated to take into account the difficulties that this technology has been
encountering over the past years related to the de-

2020, no binding targets on RES are currently set,


however the share of RES in electricity generation
continues to increase attaining 43% in 2030 and 50%

velopment of demonstration plants and storage facilities. The cost of CCS power plants construction has

in 2050, driven by the increasing ETS prices, along


with the continuation of some direct support

been revised accordingly making the technology


more expensive, in particular the storage cost-supply

schemes and a continuation of enabling policies,


such as streamlined authorization procedures, priority

24

curves as well as the technology itself. In countries


(e.g. Austria) with stringent legislation, the storage
costs are extremely high, making investments in CCS
storage uneconomical throughout the projection period.

EU Reference scenario 2013

23

Calculated according to the definitions of the RES Directive used


also for the pertinent provisions of EUROSTAT statistics
24
After 2020, feed-in tariffs or equivalent support schemes are
substantially reduced depending on the maturity of the technology
and the MS.

43

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

access, where applicable, and the benefits that local


population may have from investing in local RES.

wind allow for the higher share in generation compared with capacity for off-shore wind.

FIGURE 29: ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL AND BY

Generation from PV contributes 4% in net generation


by 2020. Beyond 2020, PV generation continues to

PLANT TYPE
Net electricity generation
by fuel type (TWh)

Shares (%)

4500

Solar, tidal etc.

4000

Wind

3500

Hydro

3000

Biomass

2500

Derived gasses

1
5

12

15

4
1
23
3

2000

Natural gas

24

1500

Coal and
lignite

500

27

26

11
6
1
20
1

22

11
6
1
20
1

10
8
1
18

12

1
7

22

21

Nuclear

increase up to 6% in 2030 and 9% in 2050; PV ca9

22

20

Petroleum
products

1000

2010 2020 2030 2050


Shares (%)

Net electricity generation


by plant type (TWh)
4500

Solar and other


4000

Wind
3500
3000
2500
2000

Hydro
Biomass
Gas Oil
conventional
CCGT

1500

CCS

1000

Solids

500

Nuclear

1
5

12

15

22

3
9

11

17

5
6
15

11

14

26

10
7
6
12

21

28

22

port schemes and the decreasing costs of solar panels. While support schemes are being reduced, costs
continue to fall and total PV capacities reach 149GW
in 2030 and 231GW in 2050.
The use of biomass and waste combustion for power
generation also increases over time, both in pure biomass plants (usually of relatively small size) and in
co-firing applications in solid fuel plants; biomass attains a share in fuel input in thermal power plants of
25

26

5
7

pacity is projected to reach 110 GW in 2020, up from


30 GW in 2010. Investment is mostly driven by sup-

13

6
3

22

21

2010 2020 2030 2050

16% in 2020, 19% in 2030 and 26% in 2050 . Biomass also becomes very significant in CHP, in which
it contributes 33% in 2020, reaching 35% in 2030 and
41% in 2050. Biomass plant capacities reach 35 GW
in 2020, up from 25 GW in 2010, 39GW in 2030 and
66 GW in 2050. Above 50% of biomass power plants
use solid biomass; biogas use increases in the short
term and reaches a share of approximately 25% by
2020, with a slight increase in the remainder of the
projection period.

While RES provide growing shares in electricity generation (up to 50% in 2050), the contribution of variable RES (solar, wind as well as tidal/wave in the definition used here) remains significantly lower. These
variable RES combined account for 19% of total net
electricity generation in 2020, up from only 5% in
2010. Their share is rising to 28% in 2030 and 35% in
2050.
Wind provides the largest contribution from RES supplying 15% of total net electricity generation in 2020,
rising to 22% in 2030 and 26% by 2050. A share of
30% of total wind generation is produced from wind
off-shore capacities from 2020 onwards. Total wind
capacities increase to 205 GW in 2020, 305 GW in
2030 and 413 GW in 2050, up from 85 GW in 2010,
of which around a quarter is installed off-shore in
2020 and beyond; higher full load hours of off-shore

44

The relative contribution of hydro generation remains


rather constant at 10-11% of total net generation, with
small hydro slightly increasing. The share of geothermal electricity generation rises from 0.2% in 2020
to reach 0.6% in 2050. Tidal and wave, which mainly
develop after 2020 in a few MS with such resources,
represent 0.2% of total EU net generation by 2030,
reaching 0.4% at the end of the projection period.
Generation from conventional thermal plants decreases continuously up to 2030 and stabilises thereon, supported by the introduction of CCS. The introduction of CCS starts with the demonstration plants

25

Calculated following EUROSTAT definitions, i.e. excluding energy consumed by Industrial sectors and refineries for on site CHP
steam generation.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

26

RESULTS

built up to 2020, but only minor additions occur in


the projection until 2030. CCS develops mainly after

taking account of all relevant factors, in particular of


the ETS price, while the ETS price in turn is influ-

2030 reaching 1.7% of gross electricity generation in


2035 and rising further to 7% by 2050. In 2050, total

enced by such investments. The increase in ETS


prices therefore counteracts the increasing effect on

net CCS generation capacity amounts to 38 GW.

emissions that would otherwise occur from the rela-

CCS power generation in this scenario requires a


cumulative storage capacity of approximately 670Mt

tively low natural gas price.

CO2 up to 2050. The distribution of CCS by country is


very uneven as the analysis is considering the specif-

Gas plays a crucial role in the context of emission

ic policies as well as the availability of storage sites


27
by MS .

reduction targets and increased penetration of intermittent RES. As a fuel it is less CO2 emissions intensive relative to other fossil fuels, and gas units are
flexible enough to serve the increased balancing re-

Generation from solid fuels declines significantly

quirements of RES. Overall, generation from gas

throughout the projection period, in particular in the


period 2030-50, as ETS prices increase considerably.

power capacities provides around 20% of total net


generation up to 2040, falling only 1 percentage point

Investment in non-CCS solid fuel plants after 2020


amount to 33.6 GW, whereas 32.4 GW are added in

in the decade to 2050. The contribution of gas to total


net thermal generation ranges between 45% and

the decade 2011-20. Phasing out of solid generation


is very intense, as availability of CCS technologies is

55% throughout the projection period. Generation


from CCGT in particular constitutes 35% and 42% of

relatively limited. By 2050, more than half of solid-

total thermal generation in 2020 and 2030 respective-

fuelled generation is produced from facilities with installed CCS technologies.

ly, reaching 45% in 2050. Industrial gas technologies


serve CHP purposes, while gas peak devices reach

Gas-fired generation slightly decreases until 2020,


but increases thereafter, in 2050 reaching the same

7% of total thermal generation at the end of the projection period.

levels as in 2010. Total investment in gas-fired plants


in the period 2011-50 amounts to net 335 GW (225

Cogeneration develops significantly in the Reference


2013 scenario, driven by the corresponding provi-

GW gas plants are operating in 2010). This strong

sions of the EED. The share of gross electricity pro-

increase in gas capacity despite rather stagnant generation from gas highlights the key role that gas is

duced by CHP plants attains a level around 16%


throughout the period from 2020 until 2050, signifi-

increasingly playing as a back-up technology for variable RES.

cantly up from 13% in 2010.


Specific nuclear phase-out policies that have been

The interplay of continuously declining ETS allowance supply, RES policies and the demand levels

adopted by some EU MS (Germany and Belgium),


along with the higher cost induced by increased secu-

stemming from the level and structure of energy con-

rity requirements, drive electricity generation from

sumption entails only limited gas investment given


the existing plants and new investments (notably for

nuclear downwards in the short term (up to 2025).


Thereon, the projected level of investments surpass-

coping with RES targets) and the effects of energy


policies, especially on energy efficiency. The power

es decommissioning of nuclear capacity and by the


end of the projection period installed nuclear capaci-

plant investments have been modelled in each period

ties are almost equal to 2010 levels. Participation of


nuclear in the generation mix remains, however, low-

26

er than today, reflecting rising electricity generation

The included power plants are: UK (White Rose) 0.4478GW net


capacity, coal CCS; Netherlands (Rotterdam Capture and Storage
Demonstration Project-ROAD) 0.227GW net capacity, coal CCS;
Poland (Belchatow) 0.2294 GW net capacity, coal CCS.
27
In PRIMES it is assumed that no cross-border trade of CO2 is
possible therefore the CO2 captured in a country must also be
stored in the same country.

EU Reference scenario 2013

volume. The projected investments in nuclear capacity mainly occur on existing sites or are lifetime extensions through retrofitting; there are very few projected
investments in nuclear capacities on new sites. Out of

45

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

the 176GW of capacity additions, only 12GW are capacities constructed on new sites.

FIGURE 30: INSTALLED POWER CAPACITIES


GW net
1600

Considering the cumulative investments in the period


2011-50, retrofitting investments constitute approxi-

Solar and other

1400

Wind

mately one third of overall investments. As the share

1200

of non-dispatchable generation (variable RES) in the


system is increasing, profit margins of conventional

1000

Peak devices

800

Gas/Oil Conv.

28

generation are diminishing thus undertaking large


new investments in dispatchable capacities risks be-

CCGT

the combined generation of electricity and heat from


the same input fuel. Overall, CHP contributes to
greater energy efficiency. This feature is not present
for CCS, which actually requires more energy for the
same output, but delivers this electricity output almost
carbon free. As can be seen from Table 5 the shares

CCS solids

200

Solids
Nuclear
2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

FIGURE 31: PROJECTED CAPACITY ADDITIONS


Capacity additions (GW net)
600

Solar and other


Wind

500

Hydro
400

Biomass
Gas/Oil Conv.

300

CCGT
CCS

200

Solids

of zero (RES, nuclear), and low carbon technologies

100

(here: CCS) are rising or at least remaining stable


after 2020 (nuclear).

Nuclear

2001-10 2011-20 2021-30 2031-40 2041-50

Finally, in the context of high intermittent RES power


generation, the projection shows increasing volumes
of electricity trade over time to cover balancing requirements (Table 6). This is possible under the as-

2010

2005

2000

their low capital intensity compared to the construction of new plants.

despite an increasing share of CHP, which optimises

CCS gas

400

nomic perspective, despite their short lifetime, due to

plants there is an on-going trend towards higher efficiency of thermal electricity generation. This happens

Biomass

600

coming increasingly uneconomic. Retrofitting investments, where possible, are desirable from an eco-

Following the retirement of obsolete thermal capacity


and strong investment in modern thermal power

Hydro

Net capacity additions* (GW net)


Solar
2041-50

Wind

sumption of higher potential of trade in the internal


energy market, induced by the successful development of the TYNDP.

Hydro
Biomass

2031-40

Gas/Oil Conv.
CCGT
2021-30

CCS
Solids
Nuclear

2011-20

-50

50

100

150

28

Reflecting, among other things, lower wholesale prices following


substantial supply from capacity with close to zero marginal costs
over large parts of a typical day including around a noon peak of
demand.

46

* capacity additions minus decommissioned capacity

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

TABLE 5: INDICATORS OF POWER GENERATION


2010

2020

2030

2050

Efficiency for thermal


electricity production (%)

38.4

40.8

42.7

44.6

CHP indicator
(% of electricity from CHP)

12.6

15.8

16.1

16.2

CCS indicator
(% of gross electricity from CCS)

0.0

0.2

0.5

6.9

Non-fossil fuels
in electricity generation (%)

48.5

58.0

66.3

72.8

- nuclear

27.5

21.9

21.8

21.3

- renewable energy forms


and industrial waste

21.0

36.1

44.5

51.6

RESULTS

In terms of district heating fuel input, the share of solids and oil decreases considerably and the share of
gas decreases as well but at a slower rate and only
till 2030. Biomass is used increasingly representing
almost 50% of fuel input in 2020 and 57% in 2050 (in
comparison to 26% in 2010).
FIGURE 32: FUEL INPUT FOR STEAM GENERATION
50

Other fuels
(hydrogen,
methanol)
Geothermal
heat

45
40

29

TABLE 6: VOLUME OF ELECTRICITY TRADE

Sum of all export and import flows of electricity as simulated by the


model
2010
2020
2030
2050
Nordic
21.6
45.4
57.8
93.6
British islands
5.2
22.9
16.1
14.6
North-West EU
54.8
94.4
137.2
110.9
Iberian
12.1
11.0
14.9
33.2
Central-South EU
60.4
63.8
62.9
93.8
Central-East EU
27.3
20.6
30.1
36.1
Baltic States
11.4
4.0
7.9
12.1
South East Europe
32.0
44.8
62.2
81.0
with outside Europe
23.4
10.7
15.5
9.9
Total
248.1
317.6
404.8
485.3

35

demand are industry and households.


On the supply side, as explained above, the role of
cogeneration develops significantly in the Reference
2013 scenario, driven by the corresponding provi-

Biomass &
waste

30

26

28

33

35

45

41

42

50

50

45

45

3
5

3
9

2
12

2
11

49

Other gas fuels

25
20

Natural gas

15

Oil products
10

Lignite and
other solid fuels

5
0

2010 2020 2030 2050

Shares (%)

Fuel input in district heating and boilers (ktoe)


100
90
80

Steam and heat supply


Steam and heat demand continues to grow in the
EU28 till 2020 and then stabilises. Main sources of

Shares (%)

Fuel input for On Site CHP steam generation (ktoe)

70
60

Other fuels
(hydrogen,
methanol)
Geothermal
heat
Biomass &
waste

20
34

40

42

47

50

Gas

42

40
30

43

20
10
0

45

Oil

22
15

Solids
10

9
8

8
5

2010 2020 2030 2050

sions of the EED.


While electricity generation from CHP plants increases throughout the projection period, steam output
increases up to 2020 and remains almost constant
throughout the projection period.
The role of cogeneration in steam and heat supply
grows from 73% in 2010 to 76% in 2030 and 80% in
2050. Production of steam from district heating units
consequently decreases over time. Industrial boilers
and industrial CHP plants decrease only slightly over
the projection period due to increasing efficiency their
steam output increases slightly.
29

The modelling results for the statistical year 2010 appear to be


lower than the corresponding published data from ENTSO-E. This
is attributed to the limited time resolution of the load curves assumed in the model. The figures in Table 5 should be read as an
indication of the trend that trade flows will follow, rather than as
projections of their absolute level.

EU Reference scenario 2013

Electricity costs and prices


The developments in the EU28 power sector have
significant impacts on energy costs and electricity
prices, in particular in the short term. Power generation costs significantly increase by 2020 relative to
2010, mainly as a consequence of higher investments due to the need for significant capital replacement and higher fuel costs (because of the large increase in international fossil fuel prices). Grid costs
also increase to recover high investment costs in grid
reinforcements and interconnectors, which are fully
consistent with the provisions of the ENTSO-E
TYNDP as well as the achievement of the RES 2020
target. Smaller components of the cost increase are
national taxes and ETS allowance expenditures. In
addition, there are the arithmetic effects of successful
energy efficiency policies, which through curtailing

47

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

electricity demand reduce the denominator for sharing out the electricity costs while the numerator is

FIGURE 34: PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (PRE-TAX) BY SECTOR


'10/MWh

less affected due to the high share of fixed costs in


electricity generation and supply. As a result, average

220.0

electricity price in the period 2010-20 increases by

180.0

31% (Table 7).

160.0

200.0

140.0

TABLE 7: EVOLUTION OF COST COMPONENTS OF


ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2010-20
/MWh

120.0

Average price
Industry
Households

Services

100.0
80.0

diff. 2010-20

% contribution

Fixed and capital costs

14.2

34.5

Variable and fuel costs

4.5

11.1

Tax on fuels and ETS payments

3.8

9.1

Transmission, distribution and sales


costs

7.5

18.3

Other costs (imports, recovery for RES*)

8.4

20.6

broadly stable up to 2035 and then are projected to


moderately decrease up to 2050 (Figure 33 and Fig-

Excise and VAT taxes

2.6

6.4

ure 34), as the benefits, in terms of fuel cost savings,

Average price of electricity for final


demand sectors (after tax)

41.0

60.0

Beyond 2020, average electricity prices remain

resulting from the enormous restructuring invest-

*RES supporting costs passed on to consumers

FIGURE 33: COST COMPONENTS OF AVERAGE ELECTRICITY

The electricity prices in PRIMES are calculated in order


to recuperate all costs including those related to renew-

PRICE
160

ables including feed-in-tariffs, grid costs, and investment costs including stranded investments, back-up
and reserve costs, etc., and including some profit margin.

140

'10/MWh

120

100

The process to determine the electricity prices in


PRIMES can be divided into four steps:

80

i) Determination of total system costs under least cost


unit commitment and least cost expansion conditions
mimicking well-functioning markets. ii) Simulation of
wholesale markets by country and estimation of marginal system prices reflecting long run marginal costs.
iii) Matching of load profiles of customer-types with the

60

40

20

Calculation of electricity prices in PRIMES

2010

2020

2030

2050

Annual capital cost

34

45

41

39

Fixed costs

13

16

16

15

Variable costs

Fuel costs

34

39

36

33

Tax on fuels and ETS payments

11

Other costs (imports, recovery


for RES)

10

Excise tax and VAT on electricity

17

20

21

22

Average price of electricity (after


tax)

131

172

172

169

duration curve of long term marginal prices with customers sorted in descending order of their load factor
mimicking bilateral contracting. iv) Calculation of prices
by sector based on price levels by customer type calculated in step (iii) and the recovery of total system budget
including variable generation costs and annuity payments for capital costs, recovery of additional costs for
RES and cost of grid differentiated by voltage type.
Grid cost recovery is based exclusively on load payments at average grid tariffs determined as levelised
costs of regulated asset basis.
The pricing approach corresponds to the RamseyBoiteux methodology and allows for the differentiation of
electricity prices by sector.

48

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

ments in electricity supply come increasingly to the


fore. In addition, lower technology costs from technology progress and learning over time help contain
electricity prices together with deceleration of gas
price increase.

FIGURE 35: PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY


Electricity (net
imports)

1800
1600

crease in the capital cost components.

10

16

19

23

13

RES

11

1400
24

Nuclear

24

1000

12

13

24
24

800

Natural gas

600

37

35

400

35

Oil

200

15

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

increasing grid costs bring a decrease of the share of


variable cost components and a corresponding in-

Shares (%)

Mtoe
2000

1200

Over time, the structure of costs slightly changes;


capital intensive investments (RES and CCS) and

RESULTS

14

Solids

10

33

2010 2020 2030 2050

Primary energy supply and import dependency

increase after 2035; energy efficiency gains in final


energy demand are the main factors behind this
trend. In parallel, there is a shift in primary energy
supply towards RES along with a decline in the supply of solid fuels as well as oil (Figure 35). Natural
gas maintains an almost stable share in primary energy supply throughout the projection period. Nuclear
energy sees a decline in the short term (attributable
to the nuclear phase-out that is being pursued by
some Member States) but is projected to resume a

FIGURE 36: PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION


Shares (%)

Mtoe
1200

RES (other
than biomass)

13

15

1000

Biomass &
Waste

19

20
28

Nuclear

27

19

800

22
24

600

27

Natural gas

400

19
29

17

200

12

Oil

10

15
7

19

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

The trend in total primary energy supply is downward


throughout the projection period, with a moderate

17

Solids

12

9
2
9

2010 2020 2030 2050

moderate increasing trend in the decades after 2020.


The situation in imports evolves only moderately. BeRecovery from the economic crisis brings an upward
effect on energy demand, observed up to 2015,
which is consequently reflected on primary supply

yond 2020, despite the decreasing trend in final energy demand for fossil fuels, limited domestic resources result in an increase in imports of natural gas
and oil products (Figure 38), which drive net imports

solids). This trend is reversed until 2020, as the shift


towards the consumption of RES in parallel with the

as well as import dependence moderately upward. By


2030, import dependence reaches 55%, and by 2050

improvements in energy efficiency (which lowers the


demand) have a positive effect on import dependency

it is close to 57%.

(Figure 37). Evolution of primary energy production


follows the declining trend of primary energy supply, it

FIGURE 37: PRIMARY ENERGY IMPORTS


57.0

is however steeper and continuous throughout the

56.0

projection period (with a small increase in the period


2035-45), as it reflects the depletion of domestic fos-

55.0

980
970
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880

54.0

sil fuel reserves. The mix in primary energy production changes considerably over time, with RES (in-

53.0

cluding biomass) becoming the dominant energy form


(Figure 36).

51.0

52.0

50.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Import dependence (%)

EU Reference scenario 2013

Mtoe (thousands)

and import dependence (mainly for natural gas and

Net imports (Mtoe)

49

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

FIGURE 38: NET IMPORTS BY FUEL

Biomass supply, which is projected to be mostly indigenous in the EU, increases significantly over time

Net imports (Mtoe)

Solids

600
500

Crude oil and


Feedstocks

400

Oil products

following the developments of domestic industry


which is increasingly using advanced feedstock and
technologies. Until 2020, the increase in the demand
for biofuels is faster than the growth of the domestic
production, resulting in a substantial increase in the

300
Natural gas
Electricity

share of imported biofuels relative to past levels. Beyond 2020, domestic production catches up, and the

Renewable energy
forms

share of imported biofuels remains stable until the


end of the projection period.

200
100
0
2005

2010

2020

2030

2050

-100

CO2 emissions
Incremental net imports relative to 2005
(Mtoe)
78

32

31
22 25

2020

2030
2050
-28

-40
-70

Solids

-78

-91 -88
Oil

Gas

Renewable
energy forms

The external fossil fuel bill of the EU is projected to


rise in constant prices by around 50% from 2010 to
2030 and exceeds 2010 levels by around 80% in
2050, reaching around 500 bn 10 and 600 bn 10
in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

The developments in the EU according to the Reference scenario energy projections that have been described so far, following the provisions of the EU
ETS, the RES Directive, the ESD, the EED and other
specific policies, result in reduced energy intensity of
activities in parallel with reduced carbon intensity of
power generation and energy demand. The combined
effect of these developments is that CO2 emissions in
the EU are projected to decrease continuously until
2050. CO2 emissions reduction is very significant, in
particular in the power generation sector, resulting
mainly from the ETS, in particular in the longer term.
In other sectors, CO2 emissions reduction is mainly
driven by the energy intensity decreases that are induced by policies on energy efficiency.
The evolution of the generation mix implies a steady
decrease in carbon intensity of power generation
(Figure 39) and leads to significant emissions reductions from the sector. Carbon intensity of power generation from thermal

FIGURE 39: CO2 EMISSIONS OF POWER GENERATION AND ENERGY TRANSFORMATION


CO2 emissions of power generation (MtCO2)
1800

Refinery boilers

1400

Industrial boilers

1200

0.60

District heating
units
Thermal power
plants

800
600
400

0.58
0.50
0.41

0.30

0.20

A significant factor of
emissions reduction

0.33
0.22
0.16

0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

in power generation
is the higher CHP
market
penetration

0.10

200

and the increasing


use of biomass in
cogeneration,

50

in

0.50
0.40

1000

26% in 2020 relative


to 2005. The corresponding figure
2050 is 70%.

0.70

1600

0
2000

plants decreases by

Carbon intensity of power


generation from thermal
plants (tCO2/MWhe+MWhth)

which

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

make steam generation less carbon intensive over


time. In the longer term, the introduction of CCS
technologies contributes to further emissions reduction; in 2030 the share of total CO2 emissions from
power generation that are captured is small, being
slightly higher than 1%, however it is projected to rise
to 48% of the remaining low emission level by 2050.
Overall, in 2020, total CO2 emissions of power generation are reduced by 29% relative to 2005; by 2030
and 2050, total emissions reduce by 45% and 70%
respectively.
Also in the industrial sector, the ETS drives a shift
towards less carbon intensive fuels, for both energy
related and process related uses. In parallel, activity
of the sector is projected to grow faster for nonenergy intensive industries. Industry as a whole is
also expected to make substantial efforts on energy
efficiency as it is confronted with the increasing energy prices and the global competition.
The resulting effect on energy-related carbon intensi-

30

Process related emissions decrease only slightly in


the short term (2% reduction in 2020 relative to 2005)
but decrease becomes considerable in the long term
(15% reduction in 2030), especially in the last decade
of the projection (69% reduction in 2050) following
the increasing trends of ETS prices, which make CCS
for industrial processes an economically viable option.
The effect on emissions from energy intensity decrease is even more considerable for the residential
sector (Figure 41), driven by increasing international
fuel prices and policies on eco-design and performance of buildings, including the EED. The effect of
these policies, in combination with renewables policies and national specific policies on reducing pollutants (thus driving a shift towards less carbon intensive fuels), drives a decrease of carbon intensity of
the sector by 17%, 23% and 32% relative to 2005 in
2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively.
FIGURE 41: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
1400

2030 and 29% until 2050. As demonstrated in Figure

1200

40: Energy-related CO2 emissions of the industrial


sector

1000

Mt CO2

ty of the industrial sector is a 14% decrease by 2020


relative to 2005, which is projected to reach 19% until

the impact of energy intensity decreases is driving the


bulk of achieved emissions reduction.

CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains

800

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy

600
400

FIGURE 40: ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE


INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Actual CO2
emissions

200
0

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

900
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains

800
700
600

Mt CO2

RESULTS

Similarly, in the tertiary sector (Figure 42), a signifi-

500
400
300

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy

cant progress occurs in terms of energy intensity decrease driven by rising fuel prices and energy effi-

Actual CO2
emissions

Overall emissions decrease substantially throughout


the projection period, achieving carbon intensity re-

200
100

2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

ciency policies, with projections showing a shift toward less carbon intensive fuels and electricity.

30

These include also the small amount of CO2 emissions in the


fugitive, solvent and waste sectors.

EU Reference scenario 2013

51

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

duction of 24%, 36% and 46% relative to 2005 in


2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively.

fostered by rising ETS prices. CO2 emissions from


passenger rail are decreasing as a result of switching

FIGURE 42: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TERTIARY SECTOR

from diesel to electricity and the shift from conventional passenger rail to high-speed rail.

500

FIGURE 43: CO2 EMISSIONS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

450

350
Mt CO2

300
250
200

150

1600

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy

1200

Actual CO2
emissions

100

Passenger transport

CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains

50

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower transport
activity relative to
GDP
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains

1400

1000

Mt CO2

400

800

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy

600

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

400

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

CO2 emissions decrease until 2035 and slightly increase thereafter primarily driven by CO2 emissions

Freight transport

growth in freight road transport and aviation (Figure


700

43). Fuel efficiency gains driven by CO 2 standards for


LDVs as well as the increasing fossil fuel prices result

mainly projected in the longer run for the passenger


cars segment and in rail.

500

Mt CO2

A shift to alternative fuels, including electricity, is

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower transport
activity relative to
GDP
CO2 emission
reduction due to
energy intensity
gains

600

in significant emission reductions relative to current


trends. Decreases in carbon intensity of energy consumption are less pronounced as the projections do
not show a significant shift towards alternative fuels.

Actual CO2
emissions

200

In transport, CO2 emissions (excluding international


maritime) go down by 8% between 2010 and 2050.

400
300

CO2 emission
reduction due to
lower carbon
intensity of energy

200

100

considerable decrease in emissions from passenger


cars and light commercial vehicles, with the highest

reduction taking place in the period 2010-20. Beyond


2035, CO2 emissions from passenger road transport
stabilize with no further tightening of CO2 standards
assumed.

52

Actual CO2
emissions

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

The main drivers of declining emissions are policies


on CO2 emissions from LDVs. These bring about a

Regarding freight transport, CO2 emissions steadily


grow throughout the projection period. The main con-

Aviation emissions are increasing over the projection

tributor to CO2 emissions growth is road freight,


where the increased activity surpasses improvements

period, however at a slower rate than aviation activity,


primarily due to the fuel efficiency improvements and

in specific fuel consumption, especially for HGVs.


CO2 emissions from other modes (rail and inland nav-

the slow penetration of bio-kerosene beyond 2035,

igation) hold a small share in total freight emissions.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

FIGURE 45: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR


5000

31

tics ; the first one is that dedicated policies result in


ETS CO2 emissions reducing faster than overall

25

Tertiary

28

31

40

Residential

2500
2000

Shares in %

3000

6
11
11

5
12

14
4

16

4
4

Energy Branch

1000

34

500

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

Power
generation/District
heating

6
13

14

Industry

1500

2010

high marginal abatement costs in this sector. In the


long term, as power generation becomes almost

Transport

2005

compared to 1990 and decrease at much slower


pace between 2010 and 2050 due to the relatively

4000

1995

shows a very steep decrease in power generation,


whereas emissions in the field of transport increase

Process CO2
emissions

3500

Mt CO2

emissions. Moreover, the trend in CO2 emissions

4500

2000

Figure 44 and Figure 45 depict the evolution of total


CO2 emissions and indicate two main characteris-

RESULTS

17
4

30

25
16

2005 2020 2030 2050

completely carbon-free, the transport sector becomes


the largest source of CO2 emissions.

Non-CO2 emissions and their drivers

FIGURE 44: EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS

Current and future emissions of anthropogenic nonCO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) have been estimated

5000

for the Reference scenario using the GAINS model.


The input of energy activity drivers was taken from

Mt CO2

4000
3000

PRIMES model results and agricultural activity drivers


were derived from CAPRI model results (see box on

2000
1000
0

the next page). Drivers for other relevant sectors


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Non-ETS

1962

1854

1776

1631

1569

1515

1481

1456

1440

1432

ETS

2456

2162

2074

1908

1826

1601

1395

1266

1101

1018

Total CO2 4419

4016

3850

3539

3396

3116

2876

2721

2541

2450

5000
4000

Mt CO2

gases) viz. hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocar-

2000
1000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Process related CO2 280

236

257

274

278

240

227

212

110

86

Energy related CO2 4138 3780 3593 3265 3118 2876 2649 2510 2430 2364
Total CO2

nomic projections as described in section 2. The nonCO2 GHGs considered here are the ones targeted
under the Kyoto protocol, i.e. methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (F-

3000

(e.g., waste and F-gases) were developed within the


GAINS model to be consistent with the macroeco-

4419 4016 3850 3539 3396 3116 2876 2721 2541 2450

bons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6). Emissions of non-CO2 GHGs have been expressed in
terms of Mt CO2eq adopting IPCC AR2 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) over 100 years, i.e. on a
weight-equivalent basis the CO2 equivalent warming
potential adopted for CH4 is 21 (i.e. 1t CH4 equals 21t
CO2eq), for N2O it is 310 (i.e. 1t N2O equals 310t

31

For consistency reasons PRIMES calculates energy-related CO2


emissions based on the fuel use reported in Eurostat energy balances and projected in PRIMES. The calculated emissions may
therefore vary from energy-related CO2 emissions reported to UNFCCC. Process related and other CO2 emissions are projected
starting from the emission inventories for 2005 and 2010 as reported to the UNFCCC in May 2012. Starting from this basis, PRIMES
total CO2 emissions are calibrated to total CO2 emissions reported
to UNFCCC in 2012 for 2005 to the extent reasonably possible. In
particular, adjustments have been done for process-related emissions to avoid possible double counting of CO2 emissions. PRIMES
ETS sector coverage corresponds to the phase 3 ETS scope as
valid since 2013. ETS emissions are calibrated to 2005 and 2010
ETS CO2 emissions, with higher importance accorded to calibration
for 2005, based on verified emissions and estimates for scope
adjustments and additional sectors.

EU Reference scenario 2013

CO2eq) and for the different F-gases have a GWP


which ranges between 140 and 23900 depending on
the F-gas. The GAINS model estimates for CH4 and
N2O emissions in year 2005 are aligned with the
emissions reported by Member States to the UNFCCC (as of April 2012) by introducing country- and
gas specific calibration residuals. These carry over as
constants to all future years. The constants reflect
differences in the methodological approaches taken
by countries relative to the consistent GAINS model
approach, as well as minor emission sources which
countries report that are not captured in the GAINS

53

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

32

model structure . No calibration was conducted for


F-gas emissions, because of large variation between

by sector and in more detail - explaining drivers, current control and reasons for overall trends.

countries in the quality and completeness of the reported emissions.


Non-CO2 GHGs are emitted from a variety of sources
and sectors. Figure 46 shows the contribution of the
major sectors to total non-CO2 emissions in 2005 and
the projected development to 2050 in the Reference
scenario. Non-CO2 GHG emissions in EU28 are expected to decline from 903 to 728 Mt CO2eq between
2005 and 2030 and stabilize on that level throughout
the remaining projection period. The agricultural sector is a major contributor to emissions, responsible for
over 50% in 2005 and with only minimal decline expected in the future. The largest decline in emissions
is expected to take place in the waste and industry
sectors in response to existing control regulations.
FIGURE 46: NON-CO2 GHGS BY MAJOR SECTORS IN EU28
2005 TO 2050
1000

Calibration

Mt CO2 eq.

900
800

Other

700

AC & refrigeration

600
Wastewater

500
400

Waste

300

Industry

200

Energy

100
Agriculture

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

Table 8 provides an overview of the main national


policies affecting the Reference scenario non-CO2
GHG emissions projections in EU28. The relevant EU
level policies (see overview table in section 1.3) are
in particular the EU Landfill Directive and the EU Fgas regulation, as well as the EU ETS. In the following sections, the emission projections are described

32

A detailed description of the GAINS methodology for estimating


non-CO2 GHGs and projections for EU28 can be found in HglundIsaksson, L., W. Winiwarter, P. Purohit: Non-CO2 greenhouse gas
emissions, mitigation potentials and costs in EU28 from 2005 to
2050, Part I: GAINS model methodology, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

54

The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and


Synergies (GAINS) model is an integrated assessment
model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the purpose of describing policy-relevant pathways of atmospheric pollution from anthropogenic sources. Greenhouse gases
(GHGs) and many of the traditional air pollutants have
common sources, their emissions interact in the atmosphere, and separately or jointly they cause a variety of
environmental effects at the local, regional and global
scales. The GAINS model addresses emission control
strategies that simultaneously address air pollutants
and greenhouse gases.
The GAINS model was used to produce projections of
EU28 non-CO2 GHG emissions. The model includes
information on emission factors, technical control potentials and costs which when combined with economic,
energy and agricultural activity pathways from the
PRIMES and CAPRI models, result in consistent projections of future non-CO2 GHGs.
The Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) model is an agricultural sector model with a focus
on Europe (disaggregation into 280 NUTS2 regions,
detailed activity data and coverage of Common Agricultural policies), but embedded in a global market model
to represent bilateral trade between 44 regions (countries or country aggregates). The main model outputs
are market balance data, prices, income and economic
welfare and, due to its high level of disaggregation in
the activity data, also various environmental indicators
like nutrient balances, erosion etc. (see www.caprimodel.org).
The CAPRI outlook systematically merges the information in historical time series with external projections
from other models or independent expert knowledge
while imposing technical consistency. Key external information came from the models PRIMES, GLOBIOM
and AGLINK, together with national expert information
on specific items. The key outputs (to GAINS) were the
activity data in the livestock sector plus mineral fertilizer
use in the crop sector.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

TABLE 8 : MAIN NATIONAL POLICIES WITH SPECIFIC


EFFECTS ON NON-CO2 GHGS AND CONSIDERED IN
THE REFERENCE SCENARIO

RESULTS

FIGURE 47: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE AGRICULTURE


SECTOR IN EU28 BY SOURCE
600

Agricultural waste
burning -CH4

National policies

biodegradable
waste

Rice cultivation CH4

500

Austria, Belgium, Denmark,

Sheep -CH4
400

Germany, Netherlands, Sweden

National F-gas
policies

Austria, Belgium, Denmark,


Germany, Netherlands, Sweden

Subsidy scheme
for anaerobic digestion of manure

Netherlands

Mt CO2 eq.

Ban on landfill of

Poultry -CH4
300

Pigs -CH4
Non-dairy cattle CH4

200

Dairy cows -CH4

100
Manure -N2O

Agriculture sector
The main source of agricultural non-CO2 GHGs are
N2O emissions from microbial processes in soils.
They contribute to roughly half of agricultural nonCO2 GHGs in EU28, as shown in Figure 47. The activity driver for soil emissions used in GAINS is nitrogen input on agricultural lands, which is the sum of
the nitrogen contained in mineral fertilizers applied,
animal manure spread and crop residues left on
fields. Activity numbers used are Eurostat data, while
future trends in mineral fertilizer input on lands and
animal numbers are adopted from projections made
by the CAPRI model. Country-specific information on
crop residues and animal excretion rates are taken
from national reporting to the UNFCCC (2012) and
kept constant over time. N2O emissions from soils are
estimated at 251 Mt CO2eq in 2005 with a slight de-

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

Decomposing non-CO2 GHG emissions for the ETS


and the non-ETS sectors reveals different trends for
the two categories. Emissions from the ETS sectors
demonstrate a very significant decrease as they fall
90% from 2005 already by 2020 and slightly decrease thereafter (see section on industry sectors
below). These constitute however a small share of
overall non-CO2 GHGs (6% in 2005). The reduction
of emissions of gases from the non-ETS sectors is
less pronounced. In 2020 the reduction achieved is
11% relative to 2005. The trend continues to be decreasing reaching a 15% reduction in 2030. Beyond
2035, the trend is reversed and ultimately in 2050 the
reduction relative to 2005 is projected to be 13%.

Soils -N2O

The other major source of agricultural non-CO2


GHGs is livestock rearing (dairy and non-dairy cattle,
pigs, sheep and poultry) and accounts for 225 Mt
CO2eq in 2005 with a slight expected decline to 218
Mt CO2eq in 2030. CH4 emissions are released from
enteric fermentation in ruminants as well as management of animal manure, which gives rise to anaerobic conditions during which microbial activity
forms N2O and CH4 which are then released. Enteric
fermentation and manure management emissions
from dairy cows are driven by the development in
animal numbers as well as by changes in metabolic
activity: more productive cows (productivity expressed as milk yield per cow) tend to cause higher
emissions per animal. The increase in CH4 emissions
from dairy cows in Figure 48 results from an increased milk production and the combined effect of a
10 percent decline in animal numbers and a 30 percent expected increase in the average milk yield per
cow between 2005 and 2030.
For other animal categories, emissions are almost
exclusively driven by animal numbers. CH4 emissions
mainly from large pig farms are about 2 Mt CO2eq per
year lower than would be expected on the basis of
activity levels only due to the existing capacity to treat
manure in anaerobic digesters with energy recovery.
This is the result of national policies.

cline of 5 percent to 2030 due to declining trends in


mineral fertilizer use and cattle numbers (see Figure
47).

EU Reference scenario 2013

55

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

FIGURE 48: AGRICULTURE SECTOR ACTIVITY DRIVERS AND


EMISSIONS OF NON-CO2 GHGS IN EU28
Agriculture -activities
150
Pigs

140

in demand in countries which report higher leakage


rates. CH4 leakage from consumer gas distribution
networks declines faster than gas consumption due

130
Mineral fertilizer

120

2005=100

from this source does not decline proportionately with


gas consumption due to a relatively stronger increase

110
100
90

Non-dairy cattle

to effects of an on-going replacement of old town gas


networks in some EU countries expected to be com-

Dairy cows

pleted in 2030.

80
Sheep

70

60
Milkyield

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

50

FIGURE 49: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN


EU28 BY SOURCE
140

Agriculture non-CO2 GHGs


150

Mobile combustion
-N2O and CH4

120

Pigs -CH4

Stationary
combustion -N2O
and CH4
Gas distribution CH4

140
130

100

Dairy cows -CH4


Soils -N2O

110
100

Non-dairy cattle CH4


Manure -N2O

90
80
70
60

Mt CO2 eq.

2005=100

120

80

Long-distance gas
transmission -CH4

60

Natural gas
production -CH4

40

Oil production CH4

Sheep -CH4

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

50

20

Coal mining -CH4

leakage of CH4 from fossil fuel extraction and transportation and CH4 and N2O emissions from fuel combustion, as shown in Figure 49. N2O from combustion
sources is partly a direct by-product of combustion as
well as has been a side-effect of some NOx control
technologies on stationary and mobile combustion
33
sources . Some low-NOx technologies like fluidized
bed combustion or selective NO x reduction technologies reduce NOx emissions but may strongly increase
N2O emissions. The relative decline in N2O emissions
from combustion is stronger than the expected decline in total energy consumption, which is the result
of a fuel use shift in stationary sources away from
fluidized bed combustion of fossil solid fuels. CH4
emissions from extraction of coal, natural gas and oil
decline in line with the expected reduction of fossil
fuel production in the EU. The driver for the projected
leakage from long-distance gas transmission is the
gas consumption in the respective country. Leakage
33

Mobile combustion sources refer to combustion in the transport


sector. For mobile sources, this problem seems to be solved with
today's technologies.

56

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

Energy sector
Energy sector sources of non-CO2 GHGs are fugitive

2005

Waste and wastewater sector


In 2005, the waste and wastewater sectors in EU28
are estimated to have released almost 150 Mt
CO2eq. Half of this amount comes from municipal
solid waste as shown in Figure 50. CH4 from solid
waste is released when biodegradable matter decomposes under anaerobic conditions in landfills or
during storage and handling of biodegradable waste
in different waste treatment processes. Due to the
slow decomposition of waste in landfills, GAINS
models future emissions as driven by the gross (pretreatment) amounts of waste generated ten to twenty
years before. Further parameters include the fraction
of the waste deposited on landfills and the effect on
emissions of current recovery and control of landfill
gas. The gross amounts of solid waste generated are
driven by GDP and urbanization rate for municipal
solid waste and by value added in the relevant manufacturing industries. The implementation of the EU
Landfill Directive is expected to reduce CH4 emissions from municipal and industrial solid waste by
almost 60 percent between 2005 and 2030. A modest
decline in emissions of 9 percent between 2005 and

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

2010 result from landfill gas recovery becoming mandatory from 2009, while the deeper cuts in emissions

emissions from domestic wastewater treatment decline assuming that with the natural turnover of capi-

between 2010 and 2030 are expected from the increased diversion of biodegradable waste away from

tal municipal wastewater treatment plants will become more effective in controlling CH4 emissions.

landfills through separation and treatment. Taking

This assumption does not apply to the more small-

into account the time lag between disposal and emission release from landfills, the full effect of the Landfill

scale treatment of industrial wastewater and therefore


CH4 emissions from industrial wastewater are ex-

Directive on CH4 emissions is achieved only in 2030.


Thereafter emissions start rising slowly driven by the

pected to grow proportionately to value added in the


relevant industries.
FIGURE 50: NON-CO2 GHGS OF THE WASTE AND
WASTEWATER SECTOR IN EU28

Wastewater from households and organic processes

160

Wastewater N2O

in industry contain nitrogen and organic compounds


which wastewater treatment plants are decomposing

number of people connected to centralised (urban)


and decentralised (rural) collection of wastewater,
respectively. The activity data used to estimate CH4
emissions from industry wastewater is chemical oxygen demand (COD) in untreated wastewater from the
manufacturing of food, pulp and paper, and organic
chemical products. Projections of future emissions
are driven by growth in value added in respective industry. The EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Di-

Industrial solid
waste CH4

40
20

Municipal solid
waste CH4

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

emissions from wastewater is total population. Driver


for CH4 emissions from domestic wastewater is the

60

2020

pected to remain at a level of about 40 Mt CO 2eq between 2005 and 2050. The activity driver for N2O

Domestic
wastewater CH4

80

2015

wastewater handling and treatment in EU28 is ex-

Industrial
wastewater CH4

100

2005

also CH4 and N2O are formed and released. Figure


50 shows that the release of CH4 and N2O from

120

Mt CO2 eq.

before discharge. The main gaseous products are


CO2 and molecular nitrogen but during the process

140

2010

expected future growth in GDP and industry value


added.

F-gas emissions
Emissions of fluorinated gases (F-gases) considered
here are HFCs, PFCs and SF6. HFCs are primarily
used as cooling agent in air conditioners (AC) and
refrigerators, but also as blowing agents in foams and
propellants for aerosols. Sources of PFC emissions
are primary aluminum production and semiconductor
industry, while SF6 serves a variety of uses in e.g.,

rective regulates the release of waterborne pollutants

high and mid voltage switches, magnesium production and casting, soundproof windows, sports and

in wastewater from urban households and food industry. Appropriate treatment must be in place by 2005.

military equipment. Although used in small quantities,

In GAINS, appropriate treatment is interpreted as a


conversion from primary mechanical treatment to
secondary/tertiary aerobic and/or anaerobic treatment. As a side-effect to improved water quality, such

the high warming potentials and long lifetimes in the


atmosphere make the contribution of these gases to
global warming significant in CO2-eq terms. Figure 51
shows how F-gas emissions in EU28 are expected to

conversions also reduce the formation and release of

fluctuate between 80 and 90 Mt CO2eq over the period 2005 to 2050, which represents an increasing

CH4. CH4 emissions from domestic and industrial


wastewater drop slightly between 2005 and 2010

share of total non-CO2 GHGs from 9 to 12 percent

primarily due to extensions of secondary/tertiary


wastewater treatment in some new Member States

(due to the overall decline in CH4 and N2O emissions).

but also as a result of more people being connected


to centralized wastewater treatment. After 2030 CH 4

EU Reference scenario 2013

57

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

FIGURE 51: F-GAS EMISSIONS IN EU28 BY SOURCE


Mt CO2 eq.
Other industry sources

100

2040. The decline in F-gas emissions between 2010


and 2015 seen in Figure 51 is due to compliance with

90

Other SF6

the EU F-gas regulation which requires leakage control and end-of-life recovery of HFCs from AC and

80

Soundproof windows

refrigeration equipment, limitations on the use of F-

Mg production and casting

gases as propellants for aerosols and foams and a


ban on SF6 use in various applications e.g., sound-

HCFC22 production

70

High & mid voltage switches

60

Semiconductor industry
Primary Al production

50

proof windows and sports equipment.

Solvents HFCs

40

Fire extinguishers

30

Heat pumps
Foams

20

Aerosols

10

Refrigerated transport
Mobile AC

Stationary AC &
refrigeration

Industry sectors covered by the EU ETS


Emissions of non-CO2 GHGs from sectors regulated
under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS)
since 2013 include N2O emissions from nitric and
adipic acid production and PFCs from primary
aluminum production. In 2005 these emissions
amounted to 57 Mt CO2eq or 6 percent of total non-

The fluctuating but relatively stable level of F-gas

CO2 GHGs in EU28. N2O emissions from nitric and


adipic acid production can be effectively controlled

emissions is the combined result of a strong increase


in demand for services offered by F-gases (e.g., cool-

through installation of existing low cost technology.


The marginal cost of these technologies is lower than

ing), replacement of the ozone-depleting substances


CFCs and HCFCs with HFCs in order to comply with

the carbon price in the EU-ETS thereby making


technology adoption profitable. This together with the

the Montreal Protocol, and effects of adopted regulations to control F-gas emissions. Demand for cooling

anticipation of the ETS inclusion, related Joint

and refrigeration in GAINS is primarily driven by eco-

Implementation projects and the economic crisis


explain the sharp decline of 70 percent in reported

nomic growth along with cooling degree days, commercial floor space and assumptions about technolo-

emissions between 2005 and 2010 shown in Figure


52, as well as the further decline.

34

gy penetration and saturation rates . The EU F-gas


regulation came into effect in 2006 and the EU Di-

FIGURE 52: NON-CO2 GHGS OF EU-ETS SECTORS IN


EU28

rective on mobile air-conditioning systems in steps


from 2008 onwards. Together with stricter national F-

70
60

gas legislation in several member states (Austria,

bilization in future F-gas emissions after 2010 shown


in Figure 51. The Reference projection does not take

40

30
20

account of the ongoing revision of the EU F-gas regu-

10

lation due to be adopted by 2014, aiming to significantly reduce emissions. Included in the Reference

Nitric acid
production
Adipic acid
production
Primary aluminium
production

scenario is the prohibition of high GWP cooling


agents in mobile air conditioners (MACs). It is as-

By 2020 the expected decline in emissions is 90 per-

sumed that the use of HFC-134a in MACs is replaced


by HFO-1234yf with a GWP of 4 resulting in an al-

cent due to full adoption of available and improved


technologies. PFC emissions from primary aluminum

most complete phase-out of these emissions by

production are linked to the use of older production


technologies. With the natural turnover of capital the

34

58

Mt CO2 eq.

Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and Sweden) these regulations account for the expected sta-

50

Please see Hglund-Isaksson et al. 2013 for details.

older technologies are expected to be replaced by the

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

more efficient and less emitting point-feeder prebake


(PFPB) technology.

achieve the long-term objectives in the context of the


Roadmaps to 2050. More specifically, in line with the

Total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF)

EU's objective of -80 to -95% GHG emissions reduction in 2050 compared to 1990, the Roadmap for

Overall, in 2020, the corresponding GHG emissions

moving to a low carbon economy in 2050

targets are projected to be overachieved; total reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990 is 24%, result-

milestone for GHG emissions reductions in the EU of


40% in 2030 relative to 1990 and 80% in 2050, while

ing from 22% reduction of CO2 emissions and 35%

the projections in the Reference 2013 scenario are


32% reduction in 2030 and 44% reduction in 2050.

reduction of emissions from non-CO2 gases. In the


ETS sectors, total GHG emissions are reduced by

36

sets a

24% relative to 2005, surpassing the target of 21%


due to the projected continuous build-up of an allow-

LULUCF emissions and removals and their drivers

ance surplus. Regarding non-ETS sectors, the target


of the ESD is overachieved at the EU level, with total

land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) have


been estimated using the Global Biosphere Man-

emissions reducing by 15% in 2020 relative to 2005,

agement Model (GLOBIOM) and the Global Forest

surpassing the 10% target. Respective national targets are achieved domestically in the majority of

Model (G4M) models. Basic drivers, such as: GDP,


population development, energy demand, biomass

countries.

energy supply and productivity changes are generated by PRIMES and GEM-E3 or provided by global

Until 2030, developments (in particular in the power

databases . These drivers are then used by the economic bottom-up land use model GLOBIOM. Demand

sector) result in total GHG emissions reducing by


32% relative to 1990. Emissions of the ETS sectors
reduce by 36% compared to 2005, with 47% being
the corresponding figure for power generation alone.
Non-ETS sectors also see a decrease in emissions
but not as strong. Finally, in 2050 perspective, emissions continue to decrease, primarily driven by developments in power generation. Overall GHGs emissions are reduced by 44% relative to 1990 (46% for
CO2 emissions).
35

FIGURE 53: EVOLUTION OF GHG EMISSIONS


6000

Current and future CO2 emissions from the land use,

37

is endogenously produced by the model and matched


by supply of food, fodder, timber and energy. The
information between models flows not only in one
direction but is circulated between GLOBIOM and
G4M models iteratively, where relevant. While G4M is
used to estimate emissions from forest land, GLOBIOM estimates emissions from crop- and grassland.
Remaining emissions from wetlands, settlements and
other land (corresponding to UNFCCC accounts) are
not modeled explicitly and kept constant at 2010 levels until 2050.

Mt CO2

5000

4000

Table 9 gives a brief overview of the datasets and

3000

models used to estimate LULUCF areas and emission factors.

2000
1000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-ETS GHGs 2808 2667 2535 2383 2311 2238 2200 2176 2166 2165
ETS GHGs

2514 2180 2091 1913 1832 1606 1400 1271 1107 1024

Total GHGs

5322 4847 4626 4297 4142 3844 3601 3447 3273 3188

The decreasing trend in emissions beyond 2020 is


well pronounced, especially for the power generation
sector, however it is not sufficiently intense in order to

The EU28 LULUCF sector is at present a carbon sink


as it sequesters more carbon than it emits. The EU
LULUCF sink in the UNFCCC inventory was estimated between 288 Mt CO2 in 2000 and 296 Mt CO2 in
38
2010 which is around 20% above the projections

36
35

Excluding LULUCF emissions and removals. For comparability


reasons over time, ETS and non-ETS emissions for 2005 and 2010
are reported in ETS phase 3 scope as valid from 2013.

EU Reference scenario 2013

COM(2011)112
DG ECFIN publications are used for macro-economic projections.
38
Please see: http://unfccc.int.
37

59

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

delivered by GLOBIOM and G4M. The difference is


related to model and datasets uncertainties as well as

In general, forest management emissions are driven


by the balance of harvest removals and forest incre-

different modeling and reporting approaches applied.


The LULUCF sink is expected to be maintained until

ment rates (the growth of the biomass stored in a forest as a result of the growth of the trees with the

2050, even though it is projected to decline from

age). As harvesting removals increase over time re-

about -244 Mt CO2 in 2010, to -214 Mt CO2 in 2030


and -196 Mt CO2 in 2050 in the Reference scenario,

lated to growing demand for wood for products (such


as furniture or paper), the carbon sink in managed

which corresponds to a decrease from 2010 levels of


-12% by 2030 and -20% by 2050. This decline is the

forests declines significantly. Growing demand for


wood as projected by GLOBIOM is driven by popula-

result of changes in different land use activities of


which the forest sector changes are the most im-

tion and income growth as well as increasing wood


demand for renewable energy production. The signif-

portant. Figure 54 shows the projection of the total

icant decline in the managed forests carbon sink can

EU28 LULUCF sink in the Reference scenario until


2050 and the contribution from different activities.

however be partially compensated by a rising carbon


sink from afforestation, a decrease in deforestation

TABLE 9: METHODOLOGY USED TO ESTIMATE LULUCF

and increasing carbon storage in harvested wood


product. Since part of the harvested biomass is pro-

EMISSIONS

Afforestation/
reforestation (AR)

-50

Deforestation (D)

-100
Harvested Wood
Products (HWP)

-150
-200

Cropland (CL)

-250
-300

Grassland (GL)

-350
Wetlands, Settlements,
other land (WSOL)

-400

2050

-450
2045

Harvested
wood products

GLOBIOM estimate, calibrated


to historic level
(FAO, country
submission)

2040

UNFCCC data

Country level emission


factor based on UNFCCC data

50

2035

Settlements,
wetlands and
other land

Estimate of biophysical crop model (EPIC),


depending on soil,
climate and crop parameters

Forest management (FM)

100

2030

GLOBIOM estimate, calibrated


to historic level
(EUROSTAT)

G4M estimate based


on age class structure,
initial biomass stock,
management regime
etc.

FIGURE 54: EU28 LULUCF EMISSIONS UNTIL 2050 IN MT


CO2

2025

Grassland
management

forests that were established over the last 20 years


get into a phase of high biomass production.

2020

GLOBIOM estimate, calibrated


to historic level
(EUROSTAT)

Average biomass
stock estimated by
G4M, based on remote sensing map

tration from afforested areas increases due to that


fact that new forests are established but also young

2015

Cropland
management

emissions from deforestation continue to decrease in


line with historic trends. In addition, carbon seques-

2010

Forest management

Based on country
UNFCCC and
Kyoto data or
other data bases
(MCPFE)

wood products increases (see Figure 54). Until 2050,


Internal forest growth
model, simplified soil
emission estimate
based on literature

2005

Deforestation

cessed to final wood products which have a lifespan


of several years, the carbon sink from harvested

2000

Afforestation

G4M estimate,
based on GLOBIOM drivers,
calibrated to historic level (UNFCCC)
G4M estimate,
based on GLOBIOM drivers,
calibrated to historic level (UNFCCC)

Emission factor

Mt CO2

Area/Supply
estimate

LULUCF(FM,AR,D,HWP,C
L,GL,WSOL)

UNFCCC data

Activities in the agricultural sector have a smaller imIPCC default values

pact on the total LULUCF sink compared to the forest


sector. Still, net carbon emissions from cropland are
projected to decline by some 40% compared to 2010
due to the increasing cultivation of annual (e.g. miscanthus, switchgrass) and perennial lignocellulosic

60

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

crops (e.g. short rotation tree plantations) for renewable biomass based bioenergy production. Typically

2050, respectively. This is the result of different, partly, opposing trends. Increasing wood demand and

these plants provide more litter input into the soil and
management activities are less disturbing the soil,

corresponding rising harvesting removals are important drivers, but also a projected decline in the

leading to a reduced loss or even an accumulation of

forest growth rate due to ageing. Harvesting removals

soil carbon. Similarly, total emissions from grasslands


are expected to go down as more land is projected to

rise from 536 million m in 2010, to 620 million m in


3
2030 and 686 million m in 2050. At the same time,

be converted to grassland that typically tends to sequester additional carbon.

the carbon sink in managed forests declines from 303 Mt CO2 in 2010 to -127 Mt CO2 in 2030 and -24

Mt CO2 in 2050.
Figure 55 shows the EU28 LULUCF sector land balance until 2050. Over time, the forest area expands

Total harvest removals in EU28 increase steadily

by 4% in 2030 and 7% in 2050 compared to 2010 at

over time as well as the share wood removed for en-

the expense of cropland and grassland taken out of


production. Cropland and grassland areas remain at

ergy use in the total harvest (see Figure 56). This


share increases from 16% of total harvest in 2010, to

more or less constant levels. The area for perennial


crops (including annual lignocellulosic crops) for re-

17% in 2030 and 18% in 2050 as demand for renewable energy production rises. Despite a decrease of

newable energy production grows significantly and by


2030 7% of total cropland is cultivated with perennials

forest increment over time, in 2050 the increment is


3
with 777 million m still well above the total wood re-

(9% in 2050).

movals which sum up to 686 million m . Reasons for

FIGURE 55: EU28 LULUCF SECTOR LAND BALANCE IN


1.000 HA UNTIL 2050

Thousands

Areas (kha)
500
450
400
350
300
250

Land unclassified
in model
Accumulated
afforestation/
reforestation
Forest
management

Cropland
management

200

Grassland
management

150

Other land

the declining forest increment are a change in age


class structure towards a higher share of older forest
stands that grow at lower rates and a saturation of
biomass accumulation. European forests get older
but also thicker and therefore grow relatively slower
in the future. This trend might be reversed after 2050
following the more intensive use of forest (resulting in
reestablished younger forests stands) in the second
half of the century.
FIGURE 56: EU28 HARVEST REMOVALS AND INCREMENT IN
1.000 M3 UNTIL 2050

100

900000

Wetlands

800000
700000

Settlements

The following sections provide a more detailed overview of the drivers, emission projections and overall
trends by the different LULUCF sectors.

Thousand m3

50

600000

500000
400000
300000
200000

100000
0

Emissions from forest land


The current net forest sink (the sum of forest management, afforestation and deforestation) is projected
to decrease from -299 Mt CO2 in 2010, to -208 Mt
CO2 in 2030 and -150 Mt CO2 in 2050 which corresponds to a decline by -31% and -50% in 2030 and

EU Reference scenario 2013

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Other removals
Removals for energy use
Increment of managed forest total

Simultaneously, the carbon sink in harvested wood


products increases from-19 Mt CO2 in 2010 to -61 Mt

61

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

CO2 in 2030 and -95 Mt CO2 in 2050 compensating


the reduced sink in the managed forest to some de-

16 Mt CO2 in 2050 (38% decrease). The main driver


for this decline is the projected establishment of short

gree. In addition, the carbon sink from afforested areas is also growing until 2050. Even though annual

rotation tree plantations and lignocellulosic crops for


renewable energy production which has a positive

afforestation and reforestation rates decrease over

effect on the amount of carbon stored in the soil

time, 11 million ha (Mha) of land will be afforested


until 2030, 16 Mha until 2050 (see Figure 55). In

compared to conventional crops. Another important


factor is the growing use of perennial crops such as

2030, already 8% of the total forest area will be newly


planted forests (10% in 2050). The total forest area is

miscanthus. The PRIMES biomass supply indicates


that with growing demand the supply of these crops

projected to increase from 140 Mha in 2010, to 146


Mha in 2030 and 150 Mha in 2050. In total, afforested

will grow because these are relatively cost-effective.


In 2030, the area covered by perennial crops sums

areas are projected to sequester 94 Mt CO2 in 2030

up to 7 Mha (7% of total cropland) and 9 Mha (9% of

and 130 Mt CO2 in 2050. With increasing age the


new forests get more and more into a phase of high

total cropland) in 2050. While carbon sequestration


from perennials increases over time, emissions from

production and become gradually available for wood


and biomass supply. Towards 2050 these forests are

conventional crops decrease as area declines. The


conventional crop area is projected to decrease by 2

therefore also taking harvest pressure from older forests and thus help to keep the sink up in managed

Mha until 2030 and 7 Mha until 2050.

existing forests. Figure 57 shows the development of

Another important factor influencing soil carbon emis-

the carbon sink in the forest sector until 2050.

sions from croplands is a saturation effect. Modeled

FIGURE 57: DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU28 CARBON SINK IN


THE FOREST SECTOR UNTIL 2050
100

50
0

Forest management
(FM)

-50

Afforestation/
reforestation (AR)

Mt CO2

-100
-150

-300

the equilibrium due to a change in management lead


to a new equilibrium. The emissions or removals towards the equilibrium get smaller over time as the
new management continues. This is especially true
for more intense management changes such as the

Deforestation (D)

conversion of annual crops into perennial crop cultivation. Emissions from cropland remaining cropland

Harvested Wood
Products (HWP)

decline from 16 Mt CO2 in 2010 to -3 Mt CO2 in 2030


and -5 Mt CO2 in 2050. Emissions from land convert-

-200
-250

soil carbon stocks converge towards equilibrium under a constant management regime. Disturbances of

total Forest sector


(FM, AR, D, HWP)

-400

ed to cropland rise from 9 Mt CO2 to 17 Mt CO2 in


2030 and 21 Mt CO2 in 2050 as land converted to

-450

cropland starts emitting carbon when being cultivat-

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

-350

ed. As a result total cropland emissions are expected


to decline over time (see Figure 54 ).

Emissions from deforestation continue to decrease


from 45 Mt CO2 in 2010, to 12 Mt CO2 in 2030 and 4
Mt CO2 in 2050 as deforestation drops from 74.000

The total cropland area is projected to increase slightly from 101 Mha in 2010, to 105 Mha in 2030 and 102

ha in 2010 to 7.000 ha in 2050. This development is


consistent with historic trends.

Mha in 2050 related to the increase in perennial crop


cultivation. Cropland remaining cropland declines
from 96 Mha in 2010 to 95 Mha in 2030 and 87 Mha

Emissions from cropland


Cropland is a net source of carbon dioxide emissions
in EU28 at present. Over time, emissions are projected to decrease from 26 Mt CO2 in 2010, to 14 Mt CO2
in 2030 (44% decrease in comparison to 2010) and

62

in 2050. Land converted to cropland increases from 5


Mha in 2010 to 10 and 15 Mha in 2030 and 2050 respectively.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Emissions from grassland


Grasslands are a net carbon source at present in the
EU28. Over time, however, they turn from being a net
source in 2010 with emissions of 4 Mt CO2 to a net
carbon sink of -5 Mt CO2 in 2030 and -12 Mt CO2
2050. This result is mainly driven by land converted
to grassland as this land use change tends to sequester carbon after conversion. Even though total
grassland area decreases marginally from 62 Mha to
61 Mha by 2050, land converted to grassland sequesters by 2030 14 Mt CO2 and by 2050 21 Mt CO2
and turns grasslands into a net carbon sink. Grassland remaining grassland declines from 60 Mha in
2010 to 56 Mha in 2030 and 53 Mha in 2050 due to
afforestation and expansion of perennials. Land converted to grassland increases from 2 Mha in 2010 to
5 Mha in 2030 and 8 Mha in 2050 in order to com-

RESULTS

reflected. Last but not least, strongly increasing international fossil fuel prices cause a significant further
upward effect on energy system costs, both through
direct fuel expenditures and indirectly through the
electricity prices. Overall, in 2020 total system costs
constitute 15% of the GDP, rising from 13% in
40
2010 .
Beyond 2020 and throughout the remaining projection period, energy costs continue to increase in absolute terms but at a slower rate, below GDP growth,
as the system reaps benefits from the investments
undertaken in the previous decade (notably via fuel
savings). In this period, the share of energy system
costs in GDP is gradually decreasing, reaching 2010
levels in 2050.
41

FIGURE 58: EVOLUTION OF ENERGY SYSTEM COSTS


Evolution of energy system costs
relative to GDP (%)

pensate for the loss of grasslands and meet livestock


feeding demand.

16

Decomposition of
energy system costs
(%)

Energy system costs/GDP

14

Emissions from other land


Emissions from other land, settlements and wetlands
are not modeled explicitly in GLOBIOM and kept con39

stant at 2010 levels as reported by UNFCCC . Emissions from wetlands amount to 5 Mt CO2, for settle-

12
10

71

64

60

76

29

36

40

24

2020

2030

2050

8
6
4
2

2010

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CAPEX

OPEX

ments they amount to 39 Mt CO2 and for other land 1


Mt CO2. In EU28, around 22 Mha is covered by wetlands, 27 Mha by settlements and 26 Mha by other
land according to UNFCCC reported data.

Total energy system and other mitigation costs


The considerable changes in the EU energy system
and projected international fuel price developments
drive strongly increasing energy system costs until
2020. This is attributable to direct capital expenditure
payments both on the demand side (e.g. building insulation, replacing equipment with more efficient appliances, etc. triggered by energy efficiency policies)
and on the supply side (refurbishment and new investments in power generation and transmission,
needed to replace the existing capital stock). Additionally, increasing capital expenditures in power
generation driven by the RES 2020 target are also
39

http://unfccc.int

EU Reference scenario 2013

Reflecting increasing capital intensiveness of the energy system, the share of CAPEX (capital costs and
direct efficiency investments) in total system costs
increases over time, reaching 40% in 2050 from 24%
in 2010 (excluding ETS auction payments). Auction
payments are very small compared to total energy
system costs; it should be noted that auction payments do not represent an actual economic cost, as
the revenues are recycled into the economy.
Regarding OPEX, overtime electrification of the residential and the tertiary sectors result in electricity
costs becoming the main OPEX component for these
sectors, instead of other fuel costs. The opposite ef40

Total system costs include total energy system costs, costs related to process-CO2 abatement and non-CO2 GHG abatement.
The energy system costs have been calculated on the basis of
nominal discount rates, despite the use of lower discount rates for
simulating economic decision making under framework conditions
that strongly foster energy efficiency (see part on modelling of
energy efficiency policies). Further modelling work will look into an
alternative cost reporting methodology.
41
Excluding ETS auction payments, given that they result in corresponding auction revenues.

63

RESULTS

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

fect is observed for the industrial sector, owing to decreasing long term electricity prices.

Conclusion
The portfolio of policies and binding targets that have
been adopted so far in the EU are expected to bring
about considerable changes in the energy system
relative to past trends. Key policies that have been
examined in the Reference scenario are GHG reduction policies like the EU ETS along with efforts to
reach targeted RES shares and improve significantly
energy efficiency, including CO2 standards for vehicles. The latter two policy lines strongly support GHG
reduction, involving a large number of synergies and
also some overlaps, e.g. regarding the downward
effect of RES electricity penetration and electricity
savings on ETS prices. This has been addressed in
modelling the binding 2020 GHG targets as effect of
the EU ETS, the RES targets and other policies. An
additional non-ETS target-related policy driver to ensure achievement turned out not to be necessary.
At the same time, competitive energy provision for
businesses as well as affordability of energy use are
key issues for economic and social development in
the EU. Therefore this scenario analysis has also focused on relevant indicators in this respect, showing
overall developments and potential trade-offs. Energy
security issues have also been addressed, thereby
giving a comprehensive picture on the possible implications of pursuing the adopted policies under the
macro-economic and world energy framework conditions that have been modelled on the basis of the
long term economic and demographic analyses undertaken in collaboration with Member States experts
(notably the EPC/DG ECFIN Ageing Report).
GHG reduction is progressing in all sectors, but decarbonisation is particularly strong in power generation given the large number of options for decarbonisation in this sector and despite the move towards
using more electricity. This higher electricity use reflects its convenience at use as well as the synergies
from replacing CO2 emitting fossil fuels (where CCS
is not feasible or not economic) with electricity, which
in turn is generated in a low carbon mode. Indeed,
the main characteristic of the future EU energy system is a significant reduction of the carbon intensity of
power generation. Another key feature is the decoupling of energy consumption from GDP growth, which

64

is more limited for electricity due to the increasing


shares of electricity in final energy consumption.
Overall, despite significant economic growth making
the EU economy 78% larger in 2050 than it was in
2010, there is a decline of total energy consumption
by 8%.
The period until 2020 involves the most sweeping
transitions due to the legally binding targets of the 2020-20 Energy and Climate Package, the provisions of
the EED and the CO2 regulations for LDVs. The projection indicates that the measures contained in the
EED combined with mandatory objectives on renewables, the EU ETS and other EU and national efficiency and climate policies, coupled with the steep
increase in fossil fuel prices, induce energy savings
of the order of 17% in 2020 relative to the benchmark
(Baseline 2007 scenario). RES targets would be
achieved, indeed slightly overachieved. Regarding
GHG emissions, target levels (for all sectors combined and for the non-ETS sectors) would be even
surpassed at the EU level. This is due to the economic crisis and a combination of policies that lead at an
EU aggregate level to lower non-ETS emissions than
resulting from the aggregate binding Member State
targets in the Effort Sharing Decision and rising ETS
surplus allowances until after 2020. Consequently, in
2020 GHG emissions fall by 24% compared to 1990,
further decreasing to 32% below the 1990 level in
2030 and by 44% in 2050. However, this significant
decrease falls still considerably short of the EU's
2050 GHG objective. The transitions of the 2010-20
decade set the ground for future developments. Beyond 2020, no RES targets have been agreed and no
additional efficiency policies are defined, although
efficiency measures continue to bear improvements
in energy consumption until 2030 and beyond (notably the long term effects of more energy efficient investment brought about by different measures including eco-design, CO2 standards for LDVs, etc. Energy
consumption in 2030 is 21% lower than the 2030 energy consumption of the benchmark case (Baseline
2007). Moreover, the continuation of the ETS, leading
to large decrease of ETS allowances throughout the
projection period, constitutes a significant driver of
continuing RES penetration, energy efficiency and
further emissions reduction. In 2030, GHG emissions
are projected to be reduced by 32% relative to 1990.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

RESULTS

The changes that the power generation sector undergoes entail considerable capital intensive investments, as well as investments in the transmission
and distribution system. These have an upward effect
on electricity prices and energy system costs in the
transitional period until 2020, enhanced further by the
increased fossil fuel prices. Beyond 2020, however,
electricity prices stabilize and even decrease. A general effect on total energy system costs is that they
become more capital intensive over time. After having
undergone all the structural adjustments to cope with
the 2020 targets and policies, total energy system
costs grow slower than GDP, leading to decreasing
ratio of energy system costs to GDP in the period
2020-50.
Finally, the intense deployment of RES following notably the investment to achieve the 2020 targets results in sizeable decrease in external energy dependence. In the long run, however, the limited availability of indigenous fossil fuel resources (due to depletion of domestic resources) as well as limited additional biomass imports lead to total net energy imports increasing again (after 2035) This mainly concerns natural gas, which according to the projection
will play a crucial role in the context of emission reduction targets and as back-up for variable RES.

EU Reference scenario 2013

65

GLOSSARY

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

GLOSSARY

CHP therefore improves energy efficiency (see also:


cogeneration thermal plant).

Aviation: Aviation activity includes only intra-EU


(domestic and EU international) air transportation.
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in aviation
reflects sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, irrespective of airplane destination. They approximately
correspond to all outgoing domestic and international
flights.

Efficiency for thermal electricity production: A


measure of the efficiency of fuel conversion into electricity and useful heat. It is calculated as heat and
electricity output divided by the calorific value of input
fuel.

Biofuels: Biofuels include ethanol, biodiesel, biokerosene and bio heavy.


Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Carbon capture and geological storage is a technique for trapping carbon dioxide emitted from large point sources,
compressing it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is injected into the ground.
Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 emitted per
unit of energy consumed or produced (t of CO 2/tonne
of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh).
CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 emitted
per unit of GDP (carbon intensity of GDP - t of CO2/M
Euro).
Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a
common energy source to produce both electricity
and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel
efficiency (see also: CHP).
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A
technology which combines gas turbines and steam
turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same plant. The gas turbine (usually
fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical
power, which drives the generator, and heat in the
form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed to a
boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a
conventional steam turbine, which is also connected
to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine.
Combined Heat and Power (CHP): This means cogeneration of useful heat and power (electricity) in a
single process. In contrast to conventional power
plants that convert only a limited part of the primary
energy into electricity with the remainder of this energy being discharged as waste heat, CHP makes use
of a greater proportion of this energy for e.g. industrial processes, district heating, and space heating.

66

Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity


related): Energy efficiency in freight transport is calculated on the basis of energy use per tonne-km.
Given the existence of some methodological inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics,
absolute numbers (especially at the level of individual
Member States) might be misleading in some cases.
For that reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in certain cases.
Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in passenger transport
is calculated on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled. Issues related to consistency of
transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight
transport).
Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in
refineries, electricity and steam generation and in
other transformation processes.
Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity.
Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and
paper and pulp industries.
Energy Service Company (ESCO): A company that
implements a broad range of energy efficiency projects.
EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS):
A
scheme for greenhouse gas emissions allowance
trading within the Community, established by Directive 2003/87/EC in order to promote reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and
economically efficient manner. Installations included
in the scheme are combustion plants, oil refineries,
coke ovens, iron and steel plants, and factories producing cement, glass, lime, brick, ceramics, pulp and
paper. Recent amendments (2008/101/EC and
2009/29/EC) have enlarged its scope to include aviation and further process emissions.

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Feed-in tariff: The price per unit (of electricity) that


an eligible renewable electricity generator receives
according to cost-based calculations for the specific
resource used.
Final energy demand: Energy consumed in the
transport, industrial, household, services and agriculture sectors; the latter two sectors are sometimes
aggregated and named "tertiary". It excludes deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power
plants) and to the energy branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above mentioned final demand
sectors.
Freight transport activity: Covers goods transport

GLOSSARY

changes exports bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied


to international sea-shipping).
Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity
indicator calculated as the ratio of total energy consumption to GDP (toe/M Euro).
Hydro power plant: A plant that produces energy
through the use of moving water. In this report, hydro
excludes pumped storage plants that generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously pumped into an elevated storage reservoir during off-peak periods when excess generating capacity
is available. Energy losses in pumping are accounted
for separately.

by road, rail and inland navigation. Road transport


activity is defined according to the nationality princi-

Inland navigation: Covers inland waterways and

ple, in line with the available statistics from EUROSTAT.

ing consistency with the energy balances. Interna-

Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy


conversion device converting hydrogen and oxygen
into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The
fuel cell provides a direct current voltage that can be
used to power various electrical devices including
motors.
Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in power
plants and CHP plants.
Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, cokeoven gas and gasworks gas.
Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of
a generator, prime mover, or other electric power
production equipment under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer.
Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover
is a steam turbine, which is driven either by steam
produced from naturally hot water or by natural steam
that derives its energy from heat in rocks or fluids
beneath the surface of the earth. The energy is extracted by drilling and/or pumping.
GINI coefficient: (or index) Measures distribution
inequalities present in statistics, such as income distribution variation among EU Member States. A Gini
coefficient of zero expresses an exactly equal income
between MS.
Gross Inland Consumption (or primary energy
consumption): Quantity of energy consumed within
the borders of a country. It is calculated as primary
production + recovered products + imports +/- stock

EU Reference scenario 2013

national maritime transport, for the purpose of ensurtional maritime is not included in the above category
as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Import dependency: Demonstrates the extent to
which a country relies upon imports in order to meet
its energy needs.
Non-fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy
sources.
Non-energy uses: The use of petrochemicals and
other energy carriers for purposes other than energy
production, such as chemical feed-stocks, lubricants
and asphalt for road construction.
Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated, controlled, and
sustained at a specific rate for production of energy.
Oil: Includes crude oil, feed-stocks, refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil,
fuel oil, naphtha and other petroleum products.
Peak devices: Gas turbines, internal combustion
engines and other small-scale thermal power plants
which are usually used to supply electricity in peak
hours.
Passenger transport activity: Passenger transport
activity covers road transport (buses and coaches,
passenger cars and vans, powered 2-wheelers), rail
transport, aviation and inland navigation. Tram and
metro activity is provided together with rail in the reporting by MS.

67

GLOSSARY

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Primary production: Total indigenous production. In


PRIMES result sheets (Appendix 2) it also includes
recovered products.
Renewable energy sources: Energy resources
which are naturally replenishing but flow-limited.
These are virtually inexhaustible but limited in the
amount of energy that is available per unit of time.
Renewable energy resources include: biomass,
waste energy, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, wave
and tidal energy.
Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with
the use of radiant energy from the sun; includes solar
thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar
energy into electricity) plants.
Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and
lignite) and derived fuels (patent fuels, coke, tar, pitch
and benzole).
Thermal power plants: Type of electricity generating
plant in which the source of energy for the prime
mover is heat (nuclear power plants are excluded).
Wind power plant: Typically, a group of wind turbines supplying electricity directly to a consumer, or
interconnected to a common transmission or distribution system. Offshore wind includes windmills located
at sea (coastal wind mills are usually included in onshore wind).

68

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND


MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

EU Reference scenario 2013

69

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
EU-28: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

485.6
2.5

503.6
2.4

517.0
2.4

524.9
2.3

528.2
2.3

526.5
2.2

0.4
-0.5

0.3
-0.2

0.2
-0.2

0.1
-0.2

0.0
-0.2

10725.4
12814.2

12301.4
14186.9
11000.9
1637.6
50.0
18.7
196.6

14246.4
15773.9
12738.2
1888.6
54.2
21.3
233.1

16667.7
18162.1
14903.3
2128.0
56.8
22.1
260.6

19150.8
20901.3
17103.5
2336.3
57.2
22.3
284.8

21944.1
24439.2
19561.1
2546.0
56.9
22.1
306.9

1.4
1.0

1.5
1.1
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.7

1.6
1.4
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.1

1.4
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.9

1.4
1.6
1.4
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.7

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

68.6
98.4
221.6

78.3
106.6
247.7

88.4
116.6
283.7

94.1
124.3
316.3

98.3
128.6
350.1

1.3
0.8
1.1

1.2
0.9
1.4

0.6
0.6
1.1

0.4
0.3
1.0

engineering

652.1

789.2

920.6

1039.8

1158.3

1.9

1.6

1.2

1.1

63.6
267.3
703.0
0.0

56.4
301.8
786.8
0.0

48.4
330.8
901.0
0.0

42.5
355.0
988.2
0.0

38.7
386.2
1067.5
0.0

-1.2
1.2
1.1

-1.5
0.9
1.4

-1.3
0.7
0.9

-0.9
0.8
0.8

8324.6
4783.5
2147.8

9696.5
5686.6
2347.5

11479.6
6845.0
2676.6

13361.4
8111.4
2978.7

15507.4
9602.2
3301.3

1.5
1.7
0.9

1.7
1.9
1.3

1.5
1.7
1.1

1.5
1.7
1.0

1210.5

1470.3

1759.9

2071.2

2402.5

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.5

182.9
0.0

192.1
0.0

198.2
0.0

200.1
0.0

201.4
0.0

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.1

335.7

366.3

394.7

417.6

440.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

EU-27: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

481.1
2.5

499.2
2.4

512.4
2.4

520.3
2.3

523.6
2.3

521.9
2.2

0.4
-0.5

0.3
-0.2

0.2
-0.2

0.1
-0.2

0.0
-0.2

10670.6
12891.8

12256.0
14260.6

14189.9
15850.5

16600.1
18243.7

19073.1
20990.5

21858.7
24545.6

1.4
1.0

1.5
1.1

1.6
1.4

1.4
1.4

1.4
1.6

10961.3
1630.6
49.5
18.7
195.9
68.2

12689.8
1880.8
53.7
21.3
232.4
77.9

14846.2
2119.2
56.3
22.1
259.7
87.9

17039.7
2326.6
56.6
22.3
283.8
93.6

19493.4
2535.9
56.2
22.1
305.8
97.7

1.5
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.7
1.3

1.6
1.2
0.5
0.4
1.1
1.2

1.4
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.6

1.4
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.4

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

98.0
220.1
651.4
63.3

106.1
246.0
788.2
56.2

116.0
281.8
919.4
48.1

123.6
314.2
1038.4
42.2

127.8
348.0
1156.9
38.5

0.8
1.1
1.9
-1.2

0.9
1.4
1.6
-1.5

0.6
1.1
1.2
-1.3

0.3
1.0
1.1
-0.9

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

265.3
700.3
8295.2
4770.5
2140.4
1203.6

299.1
783.7
9659.6
5669.6
2338.7
1461.5

327.9
897.5
11435.4
6824.9
2665.7
1749.0

351.7
984.5
13311.6
8088.8
2966.5
2058.7

382.8
1063.6
15454.4
9578.1
3288.3
2389.1

1.2
1.1
1.5
1.7
0.9
2.0

0.9
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.8

0.7
0.9
1.5
1.7
1.1
1.6

0.9
0.8
1.5
1.7
1.0
1.5

180.7
335.2

189.8
365.8

195.7
394.1

197.6
417.0

198.9
439.6

0.5
0.9

0.3
0.7

0.1
0.6

0.1
0.5

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

70

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Austria: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

8.0
2.5

8.4
2.3

8.6
2.3

8.8
2.2

9.0
2.2

9.0
2.1

0.5
-0.9

0.3
-0.1

0.3
-0.2

0.1
-0.2

0.0
-0.2

245.5
17068.5

286.2
18640.0
258.6
45.6
2.9
0.8
3.8

337.7
21391.7
305.1
55.0
3.1
1.1
4.3

385.4
23858.8
348.2
61.2
3.2
1.1
4.6

442.5
27437.8
399.4
65.4
3.2
1.2
5.1

507.4
32265.1
457.1
71.6
3.1
1.2
6.1

1.5
0.9

1.7
1.4
1.7
1.9
0.7
4.0
1.1

1.3
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.2
-0.2
0.8

1.4
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.0
0.7
1.0

1.4
1.6
1.4
0.9
-0.3
0.1
1.8

2.3
2.7
4.7

2.6
3.1
4.9

2.8
3.6
5.6

3.0
3.8
6.3

3.1
4.0
7.1

1.1
1.2
0.3

1.1
1.5
1.5

0.4
0.7
1.1

0.4
0.5
1.3

19.1

25.9

29.5

30.6

32.4

3.1

1.3

0.4

0.6

1.0
8.3
17.7
0.0

0.8
9.3
19.7
0.0

0.7
10.0
21.5
0.0

0.6
11.7
23.5
0.0

0.6
14.1
25.2
0.0

-1.8
1.2
1.1

-1.4
0.7
0.9

-1.5
1.6
0.9

-0.7
1.9
0.7

188.5
103.6
45.9

223.0
122.1
52.4

257.7
139.7
59.4

302.2
163.8
68.9

351.7
192.4
79.1

1.7
1.7
1.3

1.5
1.4
1.3

1.6
1.6
1.5

1.5
1.6
1.4

35.1

44.4

54.5

65.3

75.9

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.5

3.8
0.0

4.0
0.0

4.2
0.0

4.2
0.0

4.2
0.0

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.0

6.9

7.5

7.7

8.3

8.7

0.8

0.3

0.7

0.5

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Belgium: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

10.2
2.4

10.8
2.3

11.6
2.3

12.2
2.2

12.7
2.2

13.1
2.2

0.6
-0.5

0.7
-0.1

0.5
-0.1

0.4
-0.1

0.3
-0.1

308.9
15914.2

354.7
17295.0

409.2
18178.4

474.6
20285.7

563.4
23397.8

668.8
27170.5

1.4
0.8

1.4
0.5

1.5
1.1

1.7
1.4

1.7
1.5

315.8
40.8
2.4
0.8
10.0
2.6

364.3
47.6
2.4
1.0
12.0
3.0

422.5
54.4
2.5
1.1
13.3
3.5

501.0
63.7
2.5
1.2
14.8
3.9

593.8
74.1
2.5
1.2
16.4
4.2

1.4
1.6
0.3
2.3
1.8
1.7

1.5
1.3
0.1
1.3
1.0
1.5

1.7
1.6
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.2

1.7
1.5
0.1
0.2
1.1
0.7

3.3
6.4
9.4
1.9

3.9
7.1
12.0
1.7

4.9
8.0
14.7
1.4

5.7
9.5
19.0
1.2

6.4
11.3
24.1
1.2

1.7
1.0
2.4
-1.3

2.2
1.3
2.1
-1.9

1.6
1.7
2.6
-1.1

1.1
1.7
2.4
-0.5

4.1
18.0
245.3
133.1
69.8
40.2

4.6
20.8
283.3
159.9
76.3
44.7

5.1
23.1
331.1
192.2
84.9
51.6

6.0
26.2
395.7
234.6
97.6
61.1

6.9
30.0
472.6
286.9
111.4
71.8

1.1
1.5
1.4
1.9
0.9
1.1

1.0
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.1
1.4

1.6
1.3
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.7

1.5
1.3
1.8
2.0
1.3
1.6

2.3
11.7

2.4
12.7

2.4
13.8

2.5
15.4

2.5
17.1

0.4
0.8

0.1
0.9

0.1
1.1

0.0
1.1

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

71

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Bulgaria: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

8.2
2.7

7.6
2.6

7.1
2.5

6.6
2.4

6.2
2.3

5.9
2.2

-0.8
-0.3

-0.6
-0.3

-0.7
-0.3

-0.6
-0.4

-0.6
-0.4

24.2
1778.1

36.1
2992.1
31.0
5.2
0.1
0.1
0.3

45.1
3996.8
38.8
6.4
0.2
0.1
0.4

51.5
5008.7
44.4
7.3
0.2
0.2
0.5

59.2
6306.6
50.9
8.4
0.2
0.2
0.5

64.9
7437.8
55.7
9.2
0.3
0.2
0.5

4.1
5.3

2.3
2.9
2.3
2.0
3.9
1.5
1.9

1.3
2.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.0

1.4
2.3
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.7
0.5

0.9
1.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.3

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.3
0.2
0.7

0.4
0.3
0.9

0.4
0.3
0.9

0.5
0.4
1.0

0.5
0.5
1.1

2.0
2.1
1.7

1.5
2.4
0.6

1.6
2.2
1.1

0.8
1.7
0.7

engineering

1.5

2.0

2.6

3.2

3.6

2.9

2.4

2.1

1.2

0.8
1.0
2.2
0.0

0.9
1.3
2.6
0.0

0.8
1.4
2.8
0.0

0.7
1.7
3.1
0.0

0.6
1.9
3.4
0.0

0.5
1.9
1.6

-1.6
1.5
0.7

-0.8
1.4
1.1

-0.8
1.6
0.7

21.8
13.7
4.0

27.7
18.1
4.7

32.0
21.0
5.1

36.8
24.2
5.8

40.4
26.4
6.1

2.4
2.8
1.5

1.4
1.5
1.0

1.4
1.4
1.2

0.9
0.9
0.5

trade

2.5

3.3

4.1

5.1

6.3

2.8

2.3

2.2

2.0

agriculture

1.5
0.0

1.6
0.0

1.7
0.0

1.7
0.0

1.7
0.0

0.7

0.2

0.1

0.0

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.6

2.7

1.7

0.7

1.0

0.6

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Croatia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

4.5
2.6

4.4
2.4

4.6
2.3

4.7
2.3

4.6
2.3

4.6
2.2

-0.2
-0.9

0.5
-0.1

0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.1

35.3
4528.9

45.9
5875.4

56.6
7299.8

67.6
9046.7

77.7
10816.9

85.4
12291.1

2.7
2.6

2.1
2.2

1.8
2.2

1.4
1.8

0.9
1.3

39.6
7.0
0.5
0.0
0.7
0.4

48.4
7.8
0.5
0.0
0.8
0.4

57.1
8.8
0.6
0.0
0.9
0.5

63.8
9.7
0.6
0.0
1.0
0.5

67.6
10.1
0.6
0.0
1.1
0.6

2.0
1.1
0.7
0.6
1.4
1.1

1.7
1.2
0.9
0.7
1.6
1.1

1.1
1.0
0.5
0.4
1.2
1.3

0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
1.2

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

0.4
1.4
0.6
0.3

0.5
1.7
1.0
0.3

0.6
1.9
1.2
0.2

0.7
2.0
1.4
0.2

0.8
2.2
1.4
0.2

1.3
1.8
4.6
-0.1

1.3
1.2
2.0
-1.1

1.5
0.8
1.2
-1.2

1.3
0.5
0.2
-1.0

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

2.0
2.6
29.4
13.0
7.4
6.9

2.7
3.1
36.9
17.0
8.8
8.8

3.0
3.4
44.3
20.1
10.9
10.9

3.3
3.7
49.8
22.6
12.2
12.5

3.4
3.9
53.0
24.2
13.0
13.4

2.7
1.5
2.3
2.8
1.8
2.5

1.1
1.1
1.8
1.7
2.1
2.1

1.0
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.4

0.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7

2.2
0.5

2.3
0.5

2.4
0.6

2.5
0.6

2.5
0.5

0.4
0.9

0.6
0.7

0.2
0.0

-0.1
-0.5

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

72

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Cyprus: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

0.7
3.1

0.8
2.7

0.9
2.6

1.0
2.5

1.0
2.4

1.1
2.3

1.5
-1.4

1.0
-0.2

1.0
-0.3

0.6
-0.5

0.5
-0.3

13.1
12052.6

17.3
14352.5
15.6
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1

19.8
15011.4
17.8
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1

24.1
16844.6
21.7
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.1

30.3
19994.5
27.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.1

36.2
22729.6
32.5
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.1

2.8
1.8

1.3
0.4
1.3
0.6
-0.2

2.0
1.2
2.0
1.4
0.7

2.3
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.3

1.8
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.0

2.4

1.5

1.6

1.0

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.1
0.1
0.4

0.2
0.1
0.4

0.2
0.1
0.4

0.2
0.1
0.6

0.2
0.1
0.6

0.4
1.4
0.3

1.0
1.4
1.6

1.5
1.2
2.1

0.9
1.4
1.5

engineering

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

1.3

1.7

2.6

1.1

0.0
0.2
1.4
0.0

0.0
0.2
1.5
0.0

0.0
0.3
1.7
0.0

0.0
0.3
2.1
0.0

0.0
0.4
2.4
0.0

-1.1
0.6
0.3

-1.1
1.4
1.2

-0.2
2.2
2.1

-0.3
1.8
1.7

12.9
7.2
3.4

14.9
8.6
3.4

18.5
10.8
3.9

23.3
13.7
4.9

27.9
16.8
5.8

1.5
1.8
-0.1

2.2
2.3
1.6

2.3
2.4
2.3

1.8
2.1
1.6

trade

1.9

2.6

3.3

4.3

5.0

3.2

2.6

2.6

1.5

agriculture

0.4
0.0

0.4
0.0

0.4
0.0

0.4
0.0

0.4
0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

1.0

1.1

0.8

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Czech Republic: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

10.3
2.6

10.5
2.3

10.8
2.3

10.8
2.3

10.7
2.2

10.7
2.2

0.2
-1.1

0.3
-0.1

0.0
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2

107.0
5471.8

149.3
7150.8

184.3
8521.4

218.8
10163.0

255.9
12200.1

290.0
14231.3

3.4
2.7

2.1
1.8

1.7
1.8

1.6
1.8

1.3
1.6

134.7
31.5
1.0
0.2
1.7
1.8

166.2
38.1
1.1
0.2
2.1
1.9

197.3
46.1
1.3
0.2
2.3
2.1

230.5
54.3
1.4
0.2
2.6
2.3

260.7
61.5
1.4
0.2
2.8
2.4

2.1
1.9
1.5
0.6
2.0
0.8

1.7
1.9
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0

1.6
1.7
0.9
1.6
1.4
0.8

1.2
1.2
-0.1
0.5
0.8
0.7

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

1.2
3.3
15.2
1.0

1.3
3.8
19.8
1.0

1.4
4.2
25.8
0.8

1.6
4.8
31.7
0.8

1.8
5.4
36.9
0.7

0.8
1.3
2.7
0.0

1.1
1.2
2.7
-1.5

1.2
1.3
2.1
-1.0

1.0
1.1
1.5
-0.7

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

6.2
9.7
85.7
48.6
20.7
14.2

7.0
11.3
108.2
62.4
24.5
18.9

7.9
12.5
129.4
75.3
27.9
23.8

8.9
13.9
152.4
89.5
31.3
29.1

9.8
15.3
174.2
103.0
33.9
34.8

1.2
1.5
2.4
2.5
1.7
2.9

1.2
1.0
1.8
1.9
1.3
2.3

1.2
1.1
1.7
1.7
1.2
2.0

1.0
0.9
1.3
1.4
0.8
1.8

2.3
7.7

2.3
8.6

2.3
9.4

2.4
9.8

2.5
9.8

0.3
1.2

0.1
0.8

0.3
0.5

0.2
0.0

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

73

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Denmark: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

5.3
2.2

5.5
2.1

5.7
2.1

5.9
2.1

6.0
2.1

6.0
2.1

0.4
-0.6

0.3
0.0

0.3
-0.1

0.2
0.0

0.1
-0.1

222.7
18517.2

235.6
20644.0
202.8
23.4
0.2
0.1
3.6

270.4
23144.3
232.8
25.8
0.2
0.1
4.1

314.9
26559.2
271.0
28.9
0.2
0.1
5.0

364.1
30797.8
313.1
32.9
0.2
0.1
6.1

430.5
37142.4
369.5
37.5
0.2
0.1
7.4

0.6
1.1

1.4
1.1
1.4
1.0
-0.1
1.8
1.2

1.5
1.4
1.5
1.1
0.0
0.4
2.1

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
-0.2
0.0
2.0

1.7
1.9
1.7
1.3
0.1
0.1
1.8

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.8
0.9
4.2

0.9
1.0
4.5

0.9
1.0
5.0

1.0
1.1
5.5

1.2
1.3
6.5

1.0
0.6
0.8

0.5
0.6
0.9

0.9
0.8
1.1

1.6
1.2
1.6

engineering

9.3

10.3

11.4

13.0

14.5

1.1

1.0

1.3

1.1

0.3
4.0
9.5
0.0

0.3
4.5
10.5
0.0

0.2
5.0
11.9
0.0

0.2
5.6
13.0
0.0

0.2
6.1
14.5
0.0

-1.6
1.1
1.0

-1.7
1.2
1.2

-1.2
1.0
1.0

-0.2
1.0
1.0

159.6
83.4
50.0

185.6
95.0
57.4

219.2
111.0
67.7

255.4
129.5
77.8

305.1
157.2
90.7

1.5
1.3
1.4

1.7
1.6
1.7

1.5
1.6
1.4

1.8
2.0
1.6

23.5

30.6

37.7

45.4

54.4

2.6

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.6
0.0

2.7
0.0

2.7
0.0

2.8
0.0

2.8
0.0

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.1

10.4

10.8

11.0

11.7

12.4

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.7

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Estonia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

1.4
2.4

1.3
2.1

1.3
2.1

1.3
2.1

1.2
2.1

1.2
2.1

-0.2
-1.4

-0.1
0.0

-0.3
-0.1

-0.3
-0.1

-0.2
0.0

10.1
3731.5

14.3
5558.7

19.4
7912.2

24.1
10494.5

28.8
13346.5

32.2
15739.7

3.5
4.1

3.1
3.6

2.2
2.9

1.8
2.4

1.1
1.7

12.5
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1

17.0
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1

21.0
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2

25.1
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2

28.1
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2

3.1
3.5
7.2
2.8
1.4
5.3

2.2
1.5
2.5
1.1
1.5
1.3

1.8
1.3
1.4
-0.3
1.2
0.7

1.1
0.8
1.8
-0.4
0.4
0.4

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

0.1
0.3
0.7
0.1

0.1
0.4
1.2
0.1

0.2
0.4
1.3
0.1

0.2
0.5
1.6
0.1

0.2
0.5
1.7
0.1

2.9
2.9
4.7
1.3

2.0
1.9
1.3
-0.6

1.2
1.4
1.6
-0.7

1.0
0.9
0.9
-0.8

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

0.6
0.7
9.1
5.1
2.0
1.5

0.8
0.9
12.4
7.3
2.6
2.1

0.9
1.0
15.8
9.4
3.2
2.7

1.0
1.2
19.1
11.7
3.5
3.4

1.1
1.4
21.7
13.4
3.7
4.1

2.6
2.2
3.2
3.5
2.7
3.5

1.7
1.7
2.4
2.6
1.8
2.7

1.2
1.7
1.9
2.2
1.1
2.2

0.7
1.0
1.3
1.4
0.5
1.8

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.6

1.5

0.8

-0.1

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

74

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Finland: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

5.2
2.3

5.4
2.1

5.6
2.1

5.7
2.1

5.7
2.1

5.7
2.1

0.3
-0.8

0.4
0.0

0.2
0.0

0.0
-0.1

0.0
-0.1

150.5
14733.0

179.7
18488.9
156.6
28.0
0.7
0.4
2.5

211.9
20939.6
184.6
32.8
0.9
0.5
2.7

243.5
23714.2
212.0
37.1
0.9
0.5
3.0

284.2
28035.5
247.3
41.3
0.9
0.5
3.2

329.4
33245.6
286.1
45.5
1.0
0.6
3.4

1.8
2.3

1.7
1.3
1.7
1.6
2.9
1.8
0.8

1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
0.2
0.1
1.0

1.6
1.7
1.5
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.7

1.5
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.7

1.0
3.8
2.7

1.2
3.9
3.0

1.4
4.2
3.4

1.5
4.4
4.1

1.6
4.6
4.6

1.9
0.2
1.0

1.6
0.8
1.5

1.0
0.5
1.7

0.3
0.4
1.3

11.9

15.0

17.3

19.5

21.5

2.3

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.4
4.6
10.4
0.0

0.4
5.3
11.8
0.0

0.3
6.0
13.1
0.0

0.3
6.9
14.5
0.0

0.3
8.1
15.7
0.0

-1.0
1.4
1.3

-1.5
1.3
1.1

-1.0
1.4
1.0

-0.8
1.5
0.8

113.6
60.1
33.1

134.7
72.3
38.2

156.0
83.8
43.2

185.2
100.7
49.6

218.1
121.1
56.4

1.7
1.9
1.4

1.5
1.5
1.2

1.7
1.9
1.4

1.7
1.9
1.3

15.6

19.3

24.1

30.0

35.8

2.2

2.3

2.2

1.8

4.8
0.0

4.9
0.0

4.9
0.0

4.9
0.0

4.8
0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

4.6

5.2

5.8

6.3

6.8

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.8

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

France: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

58.9
2.4

62.8
2.3

65.8
2.3

68.2
2.3

70.1
2.2

71.0
2.2

0.6
-0.3

0.5
-0.1

0.4
-0.1

0.3
-0.1

0.1
-0.1

1726.6
16201.1

1932.8
17903.9

2256.9
19773.7

2698.9
22675.5

3163.4
25848.6

3703.3
29918.6

1.1
1.0

1.6
1.0

1.8
1.4

1.6
1.3

1.6
1.5

1738.0
175.0
3.9
1.4
18.1
7.7

2029.3
203.7
4.0
1.7
20.8
8.8

2426.3
242.6
3.8
1.8
23.1
10.1

2840.9
276.6
3.5
1.8
25.0
11.3

3320.0
310.9
3.5
1.8
26.5
12.6

1.6
1.5
0.1
1.8
1.4
1.3

1.8
1.8
-0.6
0.7
1.0
1.4

1.6
1.3
-0.6
0.3
0.8
1.1

1.6
1.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
1.1

7.3
29.4
61.9
5.0

8.6
34.2
73.7
4.5

10.1
40.7
97.6
3.8

11.8
46.8
114.4
3.2

13.7
54.7
127.8
3.0

1.6
1.5
1.8
-1.0

1.6
1.7
2.8
-1.7

1.6
1.4
1.6
-1.6

1.5
1.6
1.1
-0.8

40.2
104.4
1428.3
820.6
393.1
184.5

47.4
117.2
1674.9
958.9
456.5
227.4

51.8
133.8
2015.1
1156.4
542.9
282.9

58.7
148.8
2379.9
1382.1
622.9
341.9

67.4
162.6
2810.3
1663.5
710.1
403.6

1.7
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.1

0.9
1.3
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.2

1.3
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.9

1.4
0.9
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.7

30.1

32.1

32.8

33.0

33.1

0.7

0.2

0.1

0.0

30.3

33.5

34.8

35.7

36.2

1.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

75

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Germany: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

82.2
2.2

81.8
2.1

80.1
2.1

77.9
2.1

74.8
2.1

70.8
2.1

0.0
-0.6

-0.2
0.0

-0.3
-0.1

-0.4
-0.1

-0.5
-0.1

2257.7
16649.9

2476.8
17395.9
2216.5
460.0
16.1
6.2
56.4

2801.8
19401.3
2507.1
517.1
17.3
6.7
64.8

2997.7
21234.4
2682.1
537.5
18.0
6.5
68.7

3185.2
23682.7
2846.8
551.5
17.6
6.2
71.7

3465.8
27991.8
3092.3
573.9
17.3
6.0
75.8

0.9
0.4

1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.8
1.4

0.7
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.6

0.6
1.1
0.6
0.3
-0.2
-0.4
0.4

0.8
1.7
0.8
0.4
-0.2
-0.4
0.6

14.3
18.9
38.3

14.8
20.0
40.0

15.1
20.7
42.3

14.9
20.6
43.5

14.7
20.0
45.1

0.4
0.6
0.4

0.2
0.3
0.6

-0.1
0.0
0.3

-0.2
-0.3
0.3

238.3

281.2

292.9

307.9

327.1

1.7

0.4

0.5

0.6

6.8
64.9
96.3
0.0

5.5
66.7
102.5
0.0

4.2
69.2
105.5
0.0

3.3
65.7
108.5
0.0

2.8
65.3
114.7
0.0

-2.0
0.3
0.6

-2.6
0.4
0.3

-2.4
-0.5
0.3

-1.8
-0.1
0.6

1596.3
965.0
405.0

1816.4
1131.0
437.9

1964.5
1258.3
452.7

2110.2
1381.1
466.9

2323.6
1531.8
504.0

1.3
1.6
0.8

0.8
1.1
0.3

0.7
0.9
0.3

1.0
1.0
0.8

207.6

228.3

233.7

242.9

269.3

1.0

0.2

0.4

1.0

18.7
0.0

19.1
0.0

19.8
0.0

19.3
0.0

18.5
0.0

0.3

0.4

-0.3

-0.4

64.0

71.1

74.6

76.7

80.1

1.1

0.5

0.3

0.4

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

Greece: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

76

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

10.9
2.8

11.3
2.7

11.5
2.6

11.6
2.5

11.6
2.4

11.6
2.3

0.4
-0.5

0.2
-0.3

0.0
-0.4

0.0
-0.3

0.0
-0.3

184.1
11778.0

227.3
14981.1

227.1
14620.3

256.6
16014.1

289.3
17225.0

322.1
18255.4

2.1
2.4

0.0
-0.2

1.2
0.9

1.2
0.7

1.1
0.6

200.6
18.2
1.1
0.7
2.0
1.3

200.4
19.4
1.1
0.8
2.1
1.5

226.4
21.4
1.1
0.8
2.4
1.6

255.0
23.2
1.1
0.9
2.6
1.6

283.5
25.1
1.1
0.9
2.8
1.7

0.0
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.8
2.1

1.2
1.0
0.0
0.4
1.1
0.3

1.2
0.8
-0.1
0.6
0.8
0.3

1.1
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.2

1.7
6.7
2.1
0.9

1.7
7.1
2.1
0.9

1.8
8.4
2.4
0.8

2.0
9.8
2.6
0.8

2.1
11.2
2.9
0.7

0.1
0.6
0.2
0.0

0.7
1.7
1.1
-1.3

0.7
1.5
1.1
-1.0

0.5
1.3
1.0
-0.7

1.8
10.7
165.1
96.5
37.2
25.1

1.9
10.5
163.9
99.8
32.8
24.9

2.1
11.0
187.3
116.0
36.1
28.8

1.8
11.6
213.4
132.7
41.4
32.8

1.8
12.3
239.2
151.7
43.9
37.0

0.7
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-1.3
-0.1

0.7
0.4
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.5

-1.1
0.5
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3

-0.3
0.6
1.1
1.4
0.6
1.2

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.5

6.6

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.8

6.9

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Hungary: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

10.2
2.5

10.0
2.3

9.9
2.3

9.7
2.2

9.4
2.2

9.2
2.1

-0.2
-0.8

-0.1
-0.1

-0.2
-0.3

-0.3
-0.2

-0.3
-0.2

79.9
4233.0

97.1
5164.2
82.1
16.9
0.2
0.2
1.6

106.6
5708.5
90.1
18.6
0.3
0.2
1.9

127.3
6941.5
107.6
22.4
0.4
0.2
2.2

146.5
8236.3
123.7
25.7
0.4
0.2
2.5

162.0
9438.4
136.6
28.4
0.4
0.2
2.6

2.0
2.0

0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
6.1
3.5
1.3

1.8
2.0
1.8
1.9
0.9
0.5
1.7

1.4
1.7
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
1.3

1.0
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.4

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.5
0.6
1.9

0.6
0.6
2.0

0.7
0.7
2.3

0.8
0.8
2.6

0.8
0.9
2.9

0.9
0.9
0.3

1.6
1.5
1.6

1.0
1.2
1.3

0.7
0.9
0.9

engineering

9.1

10.2

12.6

14.7

16.7

1.1

2.2

1.6

1.3

0.4
2.4
3.6
0.0

0.3
2.5
4.0
0.0

0.3
3.0
4.7
0.0

0.2
3.4
5.4
0.0

0.2
3.7
6.0
0.0

-1.9
0.8
1.1

-1.8
1.7
1.7

-1.6
1.2
1.4

-1.4
0.8
1.0

57.4
31.8
14.5

63.2
35.0
15.4

75.8
42.3
17.9

87.6
49.6
19.9

97.1
56.1
20.8

1.0
0.9
0.6

1.8
1.9
1.6

1.5
1.6
1.0

1.0
1.2
0.4

trade

8.0

9.5

12.0

14.4

16.4

1.8

2.3

1.9

1.3

agriculture

3.1
0.0

3.4
0.0

3.6
0.0

3.7
0.0

3.8
0.0

0.8

0.8

0.2

0.2

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.9

5.0

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.2

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Ireland: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

3.8
3.0

4.5
2.8

4.8
2.7

5.3
2.6

5.8
2.6

6.2
2.6

1.7
-0.6

0.8
-0.6

0.9
-0.1

0.9
-0.1

0.8
-0.1

123.2
16548.0

156.0
17747.3

191.6
18695.9

262.2
23044.2

324.6
25755.6

385.9
28220.3

2.4
0.7

2.1
0.5

3.2
2.1

2.2
1.1

1.7
0.9

141.1
36.7
0.1
0.1
15.5
0.6

173.4
46.0
0.2
0.1
19.5
0.7

237.2
60.5
0.2
0.1
25.2
0.9

293.3
72.8
0.2
0.1
28.1
1.0

348.2
84.6
0.2
0.1
30.8
1.1

2.1
2.3
0.6
1.2
2.3
2.0

3.2
2.8
1.8
1.1
2.6
2.3

2.1
1.9
1.0
0.3
1.1
1.6

1.7
1.5
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.8

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

4.7
6.4
7.4
0.2

5.9
7.9
9.6
0.2

6.1
10.7
14.6
0.2

7.1
13.1
19.9
0.2

7.9
15.4
25.4
0.2

2.2
2.1
2.5
0.2

0.4
3.2
4.3
0.2

1.5
2.0
3.2
-0.6

1.0
1.6
2.4
-0.4

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

1.7
4.5
97.6
53.3
28.5
13.4

2.1
6.0
118.6
70.3
28.1
17.5

2.6
7.5
165.3
105.1
33.9
23.5

3.1
8.9
207.0
136.4
39.3
28.4

3.5
10.2
248.2
168.9
43.7
32.6

2.1
3.0
2.0
2.8
-0.2
2.8

2.2
2.2
3.4
4.1
1.9
3.0

1.8
1.8
2.3
2.6
1.5
1.9

1.4
1.4
1.8
2.2
1.1
1.4

2.4
2.3

2.6
2.8

2.8
3.9

2.9
4.6

3.0
5.2

0.7
2.1

0.6
3.3

0.4
1.6

0.3
1.1

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

77

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Italy: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

56.9
2.6

60.3
2.4

62.9
2.4

64.5
2.3

65.7
2.3

65.9
2.2

0.6
-0.8

0.4
0.0

0.3
-0.2

0.2
-0.2

0.0
-0.2

1496.6
15739.5

1553.2
15602.4
1391.8
223.9
6.7
2.1
15.5

1691.3
16003.0
1515.5
240.8
6.8
2.3
17.2

1964.2
17952.1
1759.7
266.5
6.9
2.5
18.8

2225.2
20217.4
1991.4
285.1
7.1
2.6
21.8

2546.7
23899.1
2275.3
305.8
7.2
2.6
25.0

0.4
-0.1

0.9
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.1
1.0
1.1

1.5
1.2
1.5
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.9

1.3
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.5
1.5

1.4
1.7
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
1.4

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

11.2
10.3
25.2

12.7
11.2
27.8

15.3
13.0
32.8

16.3
14.2
38.1

17.2
14.7
43.6

1.3
0.9
1.0

1.9
1.5
1.7

0.6
0.9
1.5

0.5
0.3
1.4

engineering

91.7

101.1

115.4

122.3

129.9

1.0

1.3

0.6

0.6

24.4
36.9
84.5
0.0

21.3
40.3
89.3
0.0

18.4
43.3
103.9
0.0

16.5
46.2
114.1
0.0

15.3
50.2
124.0
0.0

-1.3
0.9
0.5

-1.4
0.7
1.5

-1.1
0.6
0.9

-0.7
0.8
0.8

1055.5
636.6
241.8

1155.5
707.7
245.9

1355.9
840.9
280.5

1556.3
983.3
305.9

1805.1
1167.1
336.9

0.9
1.1
0.2

1.6
1.7
1.3

1.4
1.6
0.9

1.5
1.7
1.0

150.7

175.0

206.3

238.3

271.2

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.3

26.4
0.0

26.9
0.0

28.2
0.0

28.9
0.0

29.9
0.0

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.3

27.9

30.0

33.4

35.9

40.5

0.7

1.1

0.7

1.2

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

Latvia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2.4
2.6

2.2
2.4

2.1
2.4

2.0
2.3

1.9
2.3

1.8
2.2

-0.6
-0.6

-0.5
-0.1

-0.6
-0.2

-0.6
-0.2

-0.6
-0.1

12.5
3085.1

18.0
5035.8

23.6
7297.9

29.7
9905.9

34.4
12119.0

36.7
13649.5

3.7
5.0

2.8
3.8

2.3
3.1

1.5
2.0

0.7
1.2

16.1
2.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1

21.2
2.9
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1

26.6
3.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2

30.8
3.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2

32.8
3.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2

2.8
2.6
6.1
8.8
3.1
1.8

2.3
1.3
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.0

1.5
0.7
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6

0.7
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.2

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

0.1
0.5
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.7
0.5
0.1

0.1
0.8
0.7
0.1

0.1
0.8
0.7
0.1

0.2
0.8
0.8
0.1

0.0
2.7
4.5
0.2

1.4
1.1
2.3
-1.2

0.9
0.7
1.2
-1.2

0.5
0.0
0.8
-1.5

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

0.7
1.0
12.3
6.5
2.4
2.7

0.8
1.2
16.4
9.2
2.8
3.8

0.9
1.4
21.3
12.2
3.2
5.1

1.0
1.5
25.0
14.3
3.5
6.4

1.0
1.6
27.0
14.9
3.5
7.8

1.8
2.3
2.9
3.4
1.5
3.4

1.2
1.5
2.6
2.9
1.5
3.0

0.8
1.1
1.6
1.6
0.9
2.4

0.0
0.4
0.8
0.4
-0.1
2.0

0.7
0.6

0.8
0.7

0.8
0.7

0.8
0.7

0.8
0.7

0.5
0.5

0.3
0.8

0.2
0.3

0.2
-0.6

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

78

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Lithuania: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

3.5
2.8

3.3
2.6

3.2
2.5

3.0
2.4

2.9
2.3

2.8
2.3

-0.5
-0.7

-0.5
-0.4

-0.4
-0.3

-0.4
-0.3

-0.4
-0.2

18.0
3300.3

27.5
5325.1
24.7
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.5

35.1
7357.5
31.5
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.6

41.8
9364.3
37.5
5.6
0.0
0.0
0.7

49.3
11685.8
44.2
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.7

55.6
13811.0
49.7
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.7

4.4
4.9

2.4
3.3
2.4
1.9
3.8
1.0
1.2

1.8
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.2
0.0
0.7

1.7
2.2
1.7
1.5
1.2
0.3
0.7

1.2
1.7
1.2
1.2
0.4
0.5
0.5

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.2
0.2
1.1

0.3
0.2
1.4

0.3
0.3
1.6

0.4
0.4
1.9

0.5
0.4
2.2

6.0
1.2
1.9

2.4
2.9
1.5

1.9
2.3
1.8

1.1
1.5
1.5

engineering

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.3

2.3

1.6

2.0

1.5

0.4
1.1
1.5
0.0

0.4
1.3
1.8
0.0

0.3
1.4
1.9
0.0

0.3
1.7
2.1
0.0

0.3
1.9
2.1
0.0

0.3
1.8
1.8

-1.0
1.1
0.9

-0.3
1.5
0.6

-0.3
1.2
0.4

17.6
8.7
3.9

23.1
11.7
4.7

28.1
14.2
5.4

33.5
16.9
6.3

38.1
19.1
7.0

2.7
3.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
1.3

1.8
1.7
1.5

1.3
1.2
1.2

trade

4.2

5.8

7.6

9.5

11.1

3.3

2.8

2.2

1.6

agriculture

0.8
0.0

0.8
0.0

0.9
0.0

0.9
0.0

0.9
0.0

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.1

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.4

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Luxembourg: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

0.4
2.6

0.5
2.5

0.6
2.5

0.6
2.4

0.7
2.3

0.7
2.2

1.5
-0.4

1.3
-0.1

0.9
-0.3

0.7
-0.4

0.5
-0.4

30.8
25151.4

40.3
26876.5

48.6
27830.0

58.3
30596.6

69.3
34728.6

82.1
40742.2

2.7
0.7

1.9
0.3

1.8
1.0

1.8
1.3

1.7
1.6

36.6
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2

44.1
2.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2

52.9
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2

62.8
2.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2

74.3
3.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2

1.9
0.8
-0.1
2.7
1.9
0.1

1.8
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3

1.7
0.5
-0.6
-0.4
0.1
0.2

1.7
0.7
-0.5
-0.3
0.7
0.4

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

0.1
0.3
0.6
0.1

0.1
0.3
0.7
0.1

0.1
0.3
0.8
0.1

0.2
0.4
0.9
0.1

0.2
0.4
0.9
0.1

0.3
1.0
2.0
-1.8

0.6
1.5
1.6
-1.5

0.5
1.6
0.6
-1.0

0.6
1.2
0.8
-0.8

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

0.5
2.0
31.9
22.0
6.2
3.6

0.5
2.1
39.1
27.3
7.0
4.6

0.5
2.2
47.6
33.5
8.2
5.8

0.6
2.3
57.4
40.8
9.5
7.0

0.7
2.5
68.3
48.8
11.2
8.3

0.1
0.5
2.1
2.2
1.3
2.6

1.1
0.3
2.0
2.1
1.5
2.3

0.9
0.3
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.8

1.4
0.9
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.7

0.1
0.4

0.1
0.4

0.1
0.4

0.1
0.4

0.1
0.5

0.0
0.3

-0.3
-0.4

-0.2
0.1

-0.3
0.8

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

79

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Malta: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

0.4
2.9

0.4
2.6

0.4
2.5

0.4
2.5

0.4
2.5

0.4
2.4

0.9
-1.0

0.0
-0.3

0.0
-0.2

-0.2
-0.2

-0.3
-0.1

5.3
8524.9

6.1
9099.6
5.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1

7.1
10886.3
6.2
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.1

8.6
13449.1
7.5
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.1

10.2
16431.3
8.8
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.2

11.3
18794.7
9.8
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.2

1.5
0.7

1.5
1.8
1.5
1.2
-0.5
-0.5
2.3

1.9
2.1
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.7

1.7
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.7

1.1
1.4
1.0
0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.0

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.1
0.1

1.6
0.8
1.6

1.2
1.7
1.8

0.7
1.4
1.3

0.2
1.0
0.6

engineering

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

1.2

1.9

1.7

0.7

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0

0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0

0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0

0.0
0.2
0.3
0.0

-0.3
0.6
1.1

-0.5
1.0
1.2

-0.6
0.9
1.1

-0.9
0.1
0.3

Tertiary
market services
non market services

4.3
2.7
1.1

5.1
3.3
1.1

6.2
4.1
1.3

7.4
5.0
1.4

8.3
5.8
1.4

1.6
2.0
0.6

2.0
2.3
1.4

1.8
2.0
1.0

1.2
1.5
0.1

trade

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.2

agriculture

0.1
0.0

0.1
0.0

0.1
0.0

0.1
0.0

0.1
0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.5

1.0

0.5

-0.4

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

Netherlands: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

15.9
2.4

16.6
2.4

17.2
2.3

17.6
2.2

17.6
2.2

17.4
2.1

0.4
0.2

0.4
-0.5

0.2
-0.2

0.0
-0.4

-0.1
-0.5

513.6
16012.0

588.4
16109.0

688.1
17740.8

767.2
19449.2

866.0
22469.1

994.4
27595.1

1.4
0.1

1.6
1.0

1.1
0.9

1.2
1.5

1.4
2.1

525.9
64.9
1.3
0.5
12.8
2.1

615.0
73.8
1.3
0.7
15.1
2.5

685.6
81.9
1.2
0.7
16.1
2.6

773.1
91.8
1.2
0.7
17.4
2.8

886.1
102.4
1.2
0.8
18.5
3.1

1.6
1.3
0.0
3.7
1.7
1.7

1.1
1.1
-0.5
0.4
0.6
0.2

1.2
1.1
-0.3
0.2
0.8
0.8

1.4
1.1
0.0
0.3
0.6
1.2

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

3.7
14.3
17.2
1.2

3.8
16.2
20.3
1.0

4.1
17.5
24.2
0.8

4.5
19.4
28.1
0.6

5.0
22.0
30.8
0.5

0.4
1.3
1.7
-1.6

0.7
0.8
1.7
-2.7

1.1
1.0
1.5
-2.1

1.0
1.3
0.9
-1.1

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

11.8
28.7
405.8
211.3
117.2
68.0

12.8
32.2
481.1
252.3
132.3
86.6

14.7
34.9
539.4
284.0
146.3
98.9

17.0
38.2
611.6
323.6
164.0
113.5

20.4
41.2
708.6
379.5
185.5
132.9

0.8
1.2
1.7
1.8
1.2
2.4

1.4
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.3

1.4
0.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4

1.9
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6

9.4
26.6

9.9
28.0

10.3
29.4

10.4
31.6

10.7
33.9

0.6
0.5

0.3
0.5

0.2
0.7

0.2
0.7

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

80

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Poland: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

38.7
3.2

38.2
2.9

38.4
2.7

37.6
2.6

36.1
2.5

34.5
2.4

-0.1
-1.0

0.1
-0.8

-0.2
-0.4

-0.4
-0.4

-0.4
-0.3

241.9
3978.1

354.6
5697.3
312.3
52.2
1.1
0.3
3.5

474.3
7798.8
417.6
76.0
1.4
0.3
5.1

564.2
9626.4
496.8
92.3
1.5
0.4
5.9

646.1
11582.8
568.3
107.7
1.6
0.4
6.6

697.2
13125.5
612.2
115.2
1.7
0.5
6.7

3.9
3.7

3.0
3.2
2.9
3.8
2.6
1.5
3.7

1.7
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.2
2.3
1.5

1.4
1.9
1.4
1.6
0.7
1.6
1.2

0.8
1.3
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.2

3.6
2.6
9.8

4.7
3.5
12.9

5.6
4.4
15.2

6.5
5.2
17.3

7.0
5.7
18.6

2.7
3.2
2.7

1.8
2.2
1.7

1.6
1.8
1.3

0.7
0.9
0.7

15.8

27.4

34.8

43.1

47.5

5.6

2.4

2.1

1.0

2.1
13.5
25.7
0.0

2.2
18.6
34.0
0.0

2.2
22.4
38.5
0.0

2.0
25.0
42.3
0.0

1.9
25.7
45.5
0.0

0.6
3.3
2.8

-0.1
1.9
1.2

-0.7
1.1
1.0

-0.8
0.3
0.7

216.4
100.0
43.9

285.9
135.6
55.2

341.4
163.8
66.0

391.8
187.9
76.7

423.8
204.8
81.2

2.8
3.1
2.3

1.8
1.9
1.8

1.4
1.4
1.5

0.8
0.9
0.6

trade

60.7

81.6

97.6

112.8

123.3

3.0

1.8

1.5

0.9

agriculture

11.7
0.0

13.5
0.0

14.1
0.0

14.4
0.0

14.5
0.0

1.4

0.4

0.2

0.1

17.9

21.8

24.6

26.5

27.7

2.0

1.2

0.7

0.4

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

Portugal: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

10.2
2.8

10.6
2.6

10.7
2.5

10.8
2.4

10.8
2.3

10.6
2.3

0.4
-0.6

0.1
-0.3

0.0
-0.4

0.0
-0.4

-0.2
-0.3

162.1
9914.1

172.7
10708.5

182.0
11223.0

219.4
13558.0

255.6
15866.7

287.9
18178.8

0.6
0.8

0.5
0.5

1.9
1.9

1.5
1.6

1.2
1.4

151.1
19.6
0.2
0.1
1.3
1.7

159.3
20.5
0.2
0.1
1.4
1.8

192.0
22.3
0.2
0.2
1.5
2.0

223.4
24.5
0.3
0.2
1.6
2.1

251.2
26.5
0.3
0.2
1.9
2.1

0.5
0.5
3.4
3.4
1.1
0.7

1.9
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.5
1.0

1.5
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.5

1.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
1.7
0.0

1.3
3.0
5.3
3.2

1.4
3.0
5.7
2.6

1.6
3.4
6.8
2.3

1.8
3.9
7.8
2.3

1.8
4.3
8.9
2.2

0.9
0.1
0.8
-1.9

1.5
1.0
1.7
-1.1

0.8
1.4
1.4
-0.4

0.1
1.0
1.3
-0.5

3.6
10.1
117.5
59.8
32.8
21.4

4.1
10.0
124.3
63.8
31.7
25.2

4.3
11.4
152.8
80.8
37.3
31.3

4.6
12.1
180.8
97.2
43.1
37.0

4.9
12.3
205.9
113.2
47.3
41.8

1.3
-0.1
0.6
0.7
-0.3
1.6

0.5
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.6
2.2

0.6
0.6
1.7
1.9
1.5
1.7

0.8
0.2
1.3
1.5
0.9
1.2

3.4
4.0

3.5
4.5

3.5
5.5

3.5
6.0

3.5
6.5

0.3
1.3

0.0
1.8

0.0
1.0

0.1
0.7

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

81

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Romania: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

22.5
3.2

21.5
2.9

21.0
2.7

20.3
2.6

19.4
2.5

18.5
2.4

-0.5
-1.0

-0.2
-0.8

-0.4
-0.4

-0.4
-0.4

-0.5
-0.3

83.1
1790.5

124.1
3698.9
112.0
25.0
0.5
0.1
1.0

157.3
4990.1
142.0
33.9
0.7
0.2
1.3

178.7
5973.3
161.3
38.8
0.7
0.2
1.4

201.4
7070.8
181.6
43.0
0.7
0.2
1.5

216.0
7983.4
194.4
44.0
0.7
0.2
1.5

4.1
7.5

2.4
3.0
2.4
3.1
3.4
2.5
2.4

1.3
1.8
1.3
1.4
0.8
0.0
0.9

1.2
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.3
-0.2
0.5

0.7
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

1.0
0.9
6.2

1.2
1.1
7.4

1.4
1.4
8.1

1.5
1.5
9.0

1.4
1.5
9.3

1.5
2.2
1.8

1.4
2.1
0.8

0.4
0.8
1.0

-0.1
0.3
0.4

engineering

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

9.9

16.0

19.5

22.4

22.9

4.9

2.0

1.4

0.3

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction

1.9
3.4
12.4
0.0

1.9
4.1
13.0
0.0

1.6
4.5
14.9
0.0

1.5
4.9
15.9
0.0

1.3
5.1
17.3
0.0

0.1
1.9
0.5

-1.5
0.8
1.3

-1.0
1.0
0.7

-1.2
0.3
0.8

Tertiary
market services
non market services

68.4
36.4
12.5

87.7
49.7
14.7

100.0
57.4
15.6

114.8
66.7
16.7

125.2
73.0
16.6

2.5
3.2
1.7

1.3
1.4
0.6

1.4
1.5
0.7

0.9
0.9
-0.1

12.1

15.4

18.8

22.8

26.9

2.5

2.1

1.9

1.6

7.5
0.0

7.8
0.0

8.1
0.0

8.5
0.0

8.8
0.0

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.3

6.3

7.4

7.7

7.9

7.9

1.7

0.3

0.3

0.0

trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

Slovakia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

5.4
3.2

5.4
3.1

5.6
2.9

5.6
2.8

5.5
2.7

5.3
2.7

0.0
-0.3

0.3
-0.5

0.0
-0.4

-0.2
-0.3

-0.3
-0.2

41.3
4726.2

65.7
7086.1

83.9
8922.4

105.8
11409.6

119.0
13223.3

127.4
14617.1

4.8
4.1

2.5
2.3

2.3
2.5

1.2
1.5

0.7
1.0

59.8
13.8
0.8
0.3
0.7
0.7

76.3
17.4
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.8

96.1
22.3
1.1
0.3
0.9
1.0

108.1
25.1
1.1
0.3
1.0
1.0

115.5
25.6
1.1
0.3
0.9
1.1

2.5
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.8

2.3
2.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.8

1.2
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5

0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.3

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

0.6
1.2
6.4
0.5

0.6
1.4
8.8
0.5

0.8
1.8
12.2
0.5

0.8
1.9
14.5
0.4

0.9
2.0
14.9
0.4

1.1
1.6
3.2
0.2

1.9
2.3
3.3
-0.3

0.7
0.9
1.7
-1.3

0.5
0.3
0.3
-1.4

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

2.6
5.7
36.3
18.7
8.4
7.4

3.0
6.9
47.7
25.3
10.1
10.3

3.7
8.6
60.0
31.9
12.4
13.5

4.0
9.4
68.1
36.5
13.2
16.2

4.0
9.6
75.0
40.9
13.1
18.9

1.6
1.9
2.8
3.1
1.8
3.4

2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.7

0.6
0.9
1.3
1.4
0.6
1.8

0.0
0.3
1.0
1.1
-0.1
1.6

1.9
3.8

2.0
4.2

2.1
5.3

2.2
5.5

2.2
5.2

0.8
1.0

0.5
2.2

0.2
0.4

-0.1
-0.5

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

82

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 1

REFERENCE 2013
Slovenia: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2.0
2.9

2.0
2.6

2.1
2.5

2.2
2.4

2.1
2.4

2.1
2.3

0.3
-1.0

0.5
-0.5

0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2

27.1
7784.1

35.4
9692.5
30.8
6.0
0.2
0.1
0.9

41.8
11079.2
36.4
7.3
0.2
0.1
1.2

48.8
13177.2
42.5
8.4
0.2
0.2
1.3

55.2
15408.6
47.9
9.4
0.3
0.2
1.4

60.7
17624.2
52.6
10.4
0.2
0.2
1.5

2.7
2.2

1.7
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.5
8.5
1.9

1.6
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.9

1.2
1.6
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.8

0.9
1.4
0.9
0.9
-0.1
0.1
0.6

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.3
0.3
0.6

0.3
0.3
0.7

0.3
0.3
0.7

1.0
-0.3
1.1

1.3
0.7
1.6

0.5
0.4
1.0

0.2
0.7
0.8

engineering

2.5

3.3

4.1

4.9

5.6

2.9

2.0

1.8

1.4

0.2
1.1
2.0
0.0

0.2
1.2
2.2
0.0

0.2
1.3
2.4
0.0

0.2
1.3
2.5
0.0

0.2
1.4
2.6
0.0

-1.1
0.8
1.1

-1.2
0.7
1.0

-1.3
0.6
0.5

-1.0
0.4
0.2

21.9
11.8
5.5

25.9
14.4
5.7

30.6
17.3
6.3

34.8
20.0
6.7

38.4
22.4
7.0

1.7
2.0
0.3

1.7
1.8
1.1

1.3
1.5
0.7

1.0
1.2
0.4

trade

3.9

5.0

6.2

7.3

8.2

2.6

2.2

1.6

1.2

agriculture

0.8
0.0

0.8
0.0

0.8
0.0

0.8
0.0

0.8
0.0

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.5

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

40.0
2.9

46.0
2.7

48.0
2.7

50.0
2.6

51.7
2.5

52.7
2.5

1.4
-0.5

0.4
-0.2

0.4
-0.4

0.3
-0.2

0.2
-0.2

856.8
12378.6

1051.3
13196.9

1227.4
14773.3

1583.3
18367.0

1835.6
20668.2

2045.3
22726.0

2.1
0.6

1.6
1.1

2.6
2.2

1.5
1.2

1.1
1.0

961.6
124.5
4.9
2.4
13.5
7.8

1122.5
148.5
5.3
2.5
16.6
9.7

1447.8
183.2
6.8
2.8
19.1
11.9

1676.7
204.8
7.2
2.9
21.3
12.3

1865.1
225.8
7.0
2.9
23.5
12.2

1.6
1.8
0.8
0.5
2.1
2.1

2.6
2.1
2.4
1.1
1.4
2.0

1.5
1.1
0.6
0.5
1.1
0.4

1.1
1.0
-0.2
0.0
1.0
-0.1

paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles

7.0
23.8
38.9
5.3

7.4
27.9
48.7
4.8

8.6
34.1
66.7
4.4

9.5
37.6
79.3
3.7

9.6
41.1
92.5
3.4

0.4
1.6
2.3
-0.9

1.6
2.0
3.2
-0.9

1.0
1.0
1.7
-1.5

0.1
0.9
1.5
-1.1

other industries (incl. printing)


Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade

20.8
114.8
700.3
380.4
177.4
117.0

25.6
125.8
824.7
461.2
189.4
147.5

28.9
157.0
1078.6
619.9
242.6
188.6

31.0
169.7
1271.2
754.6
263.0
226.5

33.5
176.4
1431.9
874.1
269.9
260.8

2.1
0.9
1.6
1.9
0.7
2.3

1.2
2.2
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.5

0.7
0.8
1.7
2.0
0.8
1.8

0.8
0.4
1.2
1.5
0.3
1.4

25.5
22.1

26.6
23.5

27.4
29.1

27.1
31.0

27.1
31.0

0.5
0.7

0.3
2.1

-0.1
0.6

0.0
0.0

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services

Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

Spain: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals

agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

EU Reference scenario 2013

83

APPENDIX 1

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

REFERENCE 2013
Sweden: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

8.9
2.1

9.3
2.1

10.1
2.1

10.6
2.1

10.9
2.1

11.2
2.1

0.5
-0.2

0.8
0.0

0.5
0.0

0.3
0.0

0.3
0.0

283.3
15496.3

349.2
18081.4
304.8
50.8
1.8
0.6
7.7

423.6
20797.2
369.8
60.4
2.4
0.9
8.5

505.2
24127.3
440.9
68.6
2.7
0.9
9.8

603.1
28609.9
525.8
78.0
2.7
0.9
11.3

717.0
33791.3
624.0
90.8
2.8
0.8
12.1

2.1
1.6

2.0
1.4
1.9
1.7
2.9
4.6
1.0

1.8
1.5
1.8
1.3
0.9
0.2
1.4

1.8
1.7
1.8
1.3
0.2
-0.5
1.5

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.5
0.3
-0.3
0.7

1.0
4.1
4.1

1.4
4.3
4.7

1.4
4.8
5.5

1.5
5.2
6.3

1.6
5.7
7.0

2.6
0.4
1.3

0.6
1.2
1.7

0.6
0.9
1.3

0.7
0.8
1.1

22.1

26.7

30.9

35.8

43.8

1.9

1.5

1.5

2.0

0.5
9.0
16.7
0.0

0.4
11.2
19.5
0.0

0.4
12.2
22.1
0.0

0.3
13.9
24.8
0.0

0.3
16.7
27.3
0.0

-0.8
2.3
1.5

-1.1
0.9
1.3

-1.1
1.3
1.1

-0.8
1.8
1.0

226.0
113.8
71.4

277.3
139.7
86.0

336.9
170.7
100.1

409.0
211.0
116.0

490.9
260.5
134.0

2.1
2.1
1.9

2.0
2.0
1.5

2.0
2.1
1.5

1.8
2.1
1.5

35.8

46.3

60.6

76.5

90.8

2.6

2.7

2.4

1.7

5.0
0.0

5.3
0.0

5.4
0.0

5.6
0.0

5.6
0.0

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.1

11.3

12.6

13.2

14.0

15.1

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.8

non metallic minerals


paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy
sector
and others
Energy
sector
and others

United Kingdom: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Gross Domestic Product (in 000 MEuro'10)
Household Expenditure (in Euro'10/capita)
SECTORAL VALUE ADDED (in 000 MEuro'10)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
non metallic minerals
paper pulp
food, drink and tobacco
engineering
textiles
other industries (incl. printing)
Construction
Tertiary
market services
non market services
trade
agriculture
Energy sector and others
Source: GEM-E3

84

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40 '40-'50

58.8
2.4

62.0
2.4

66.3
2.3

70.2
2.2

73.4
2.1

76.4
2.1

0.5
-0.1

0.7
-0.3

0.6
-0.4

0.5
-0.3

0.4
-0.3

1444.8
15784.6

1706.3
17704.5

2023.8
19238.0

2445.4
21741.9

2965.4
25333.1

3581.8
29977.1

1.7
1.2

1.7
0.8

1.9
1.2

1.9
1.5

1.9
1.7

1522.5
156.3
3.0
1.5
22.2
5.0

1805.7
176.7
3.0
1.3
29.2
5.7

2181.4
198.6
2.8
1.3
33.2
6.0

2642.6
222.2
2.7
1.2
36.2
6.2

3186.4
246.3
2.7
1.1
37.4
6.4

1.7
1.2
0.0
-1.3
2.7
1.2

1.9
1.2
-0.6
-0.3
1.3
0.6

1.9
1.1
-0.2
-0.8
0.9
0.3

1.9
1.0
-0.2
-0.9
0.3
0.3

21.2
24.7
53.6
4.7

21.4
25.7
64.6
3.9

21.2
27.5
79.2
3.1

20.0
29.0
98.8
2.5

18.4
29.5
121.8
2.1

0.1
0.4
1.9
-1.8

-0.1
0.7
2.1
-2.3

-0.6
0.5
2.2
-2.0

-0.8
0.2
2.1
-1.9

20.3
106.0
1199.8
739.6
308.8
142.7

22.0
126.2
1439.2
927.8
321.9
180.4

24.3
148.0
1768.9
1172.9
361.4
225.3

25.7
168.5
2181.6
1481.5
410.6
280.1

27.0
187.3
2677.8
1864.6
464.1
339.4

0.8
1.8
1.8
2.3
0.4
2.4

1.0
1.6
2.1
2.4
1.2
2.2

0.6
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.3
2.2

0.5
1.1
2.1
2.3
1.2
1.9

8.8
60.4

9.1
63.5

9.3
66.0

9.5
70.2

9.6
75.0

0.4
0.5

0.3
0.4

0.2
0.6

0.1
0.7

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2: SUMMARY ENERGY


BALANCES AND INDICATORS

EU Reference scenario 2013

85

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

EU28: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

947932
214627
176084
209437
243841
103944
30818
66071
1913
430
4712

904640
196059
136469
190678
257516
123918
26817
84883
6058
806
5354

841485
163855
103565
158525
236563
178977
32208
124361
12829
3691
5888

831739
149960
90871
149395
229122
212391
31687
136029
22662
14040
7974

808126
139654
77509
140735
193490
256738
32181
150677
41928
22705
9248

775146
127408
65363
124505
180877
276993
32953
151650
54362
28575
9453

750168
88528
55596
109610
201194
295241
34088
152957
66069
32035
10092

755836
79202
43537
101917
214924
316256
35117
155036
73559
37343
15202

757922
74288
34213
95373
217916
336132
35702
161613
78008
41520
19288

755763
72768
23257
82682
220665
356390
36021
164815
85278
44813
25464

737913
69144
16347
69668
215930
366824
36568
164084
92481
45911
27779

-1.2
-2.7
-5.2
-2.7
-0.3
5.6
0.4
6.5
21.0
24.0
2.3

-0.4
-1.6
-2.9
-1.2
-2.0
3.7
0.0
1.9
12.6
19.9
4.6

-0.7
-4.5
-3.3
-2.5
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.2
4.7
3.5
0.9

-0.1
-1.2
-5.9
-2.2
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.4
1.7
1.8
5.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

829314
98273
535238
518046
17192
193432
2029

988719
125211
604030
585121
18909
257849
1412

956735
110927
563977
541240
22737
276001
707

968177
116302
551969
527936
24033
286044
-128

912060
96769
528622
507046
21577
266444
-1601

915743
88251
521323
498075
23248
284343
-1508

921181
85336
521986
494522
27464
290114
-1489

911821
62203
525813
494867
30946
299138
-1740

917955
54550
528660
493650
35010
307780
-1818

940644
54960
538605
497877
40728
319195
-1880

963104
54873
544042
497143
46899
335472
-2095

1.4
1.2
0.5
0.4
2.8
3.6
-10.0

-0.5
-1.4
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.0

0.1
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
2.4
0.9
0.0

0.2
-2.2
0.2
0.0
2.7
0.7
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1732712
321277
665142
396145
243841
2029
104278

1833269
317986
683909
448380
257516
1412
124065

1767474
280653
620735
444428
236563
707
184389

1746442
266262
589584
435221
229122
-128
226382

1664663
236423
551528
406259
193490
-1601
278563

1633220
215659
530942
406923
180877
-1508
300327

1611470
173864
520209
397218
201194
-1489
320475

1605249
141405
510991
397005
214924
-1740
342663

1611435
128839
503915
397669
217916
-1818
364915

1628802
127728
501344
394790
220665
-1880
386154

1630018
124018
497898
396632
215930
-2095
397635

0.2
-1.3
-0.7
1.2
-0.3
-10.0
5.9

-0.6
-1.7
-1.2
-0.9
-2.0
0.0
4.2

-0.3
-3.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.0
1.4

0.1
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
1.1

18.5
38.4
22.9
14.1
6.0

17.3
37.3
24.5
14.0
6.8

15.9
35.1
25.1
13.4
10.4

15.2
33.8
24.9
13.1
13.0

14.2
33.1
24.4
11.6
16.7

13.2
32.5
24.9
11.1
18.4

10.8
32.3
24.6
12.5
19.9

8.8
31.8
24.7
13.4
21.3

8.0
31.3
24.7
13.5
22.6

7.8
30.8
24.2
13.5
23.7

7.6
30.5
24.3
13.2
24.4

3006692
396970

3286660
407042

3327452
377767

3416910
369108

3428487
354745

3530642
360436

3664473
367526

3806113
384851

3991697
414250

4202590
447802

4338637
473642

1.0
-0.5

0.3
-0.6

0.7
0.4

0.8
1.3

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

384957
223038
40042
102844
14918
4114
0

426995
228941
33244
133713
26452
4645
0

417273
197605
20532
149190
45117
4828
0

383090
186948
10850
131949
47367
5976
0

352461
160009
5924
124810
54922
6796
0

338048
143969
5272
126275
55679
6853
0

299413
105545
4564
124806
57154
7345
0

282783
77176
4034
127067
62251
12254
0

288580
68351
4151
129771
70151
16157
0

299341
70308
4144
128423
74298
22167
0

299175
68306
4107
125172
77085
24506
0

0.8
-1.2
-6.5
3.8
11.7
1.6
0.0

-1.7
-2.1
-11.7
-1.8
2.0
3.5
0.0

-1.6
-4.1
-2.6
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.0

0.0
-2.2
-0.5
0.0
1.5
6.2
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

1076346
740500
705
18667
316475

1110121
763156
3101
19517
324348

1001515
670015
13296
20813
297391

971670
646957
18237
22512
283964

910149
615082
26224
20814
248029

873505
594427
26522
19831
232725

879495
582078
27227
19702
250488

877552
571408
27464
18586
260094

866854
561252
27421
17323
260858

862355
555092
28231
17656
261377

851255
547329
29476
18478
255973

-0.7
-1.0
34.1
1.1
-0.6

-1.0
-0.9
7.0
0.0
-1.8

-0.3
-0.5
0.4
-0.5
0.1

-0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
0.1

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Energy Branch Consumption

86990

91952

88327

82471

77246

73943

71067

69188

68575

68919

69052

0.2

-1.3

-0.8

-0.1

117117

120718

114884

119316

122296

121539

121547

121156

119757

119350

119927

-0.2

0.6

-0.1

-0.1

1127687

1190674

1157570

1171067

1137297

1130470

1125536

1125533

1132629

1144095

1150707

0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

332412
217920
114492
286291
166083
342901

330448
216886
113563
311793
179768
368665

290978
187894
103085
311545
187856
367191

304838
197139
107699
312012
181948
372270

306198
197546
108652
299377
172717
359006

305662
195178
110484
300041
171685
353083

306929
194763
112166
297328
167352
353927

304625
192159
112465
298793
168292
353824

304043
189881
114162
301234
169602
357751

306949
190112
116837
303983
172439
360723

308922
188534
120388
303395
172664
365726

-1.3
-1.5
-1.0
0.8
1.2
0.7

0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2

0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1

0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2

61779
485890
266925
217599
46015
49480
0

54424
502788
285438
239418
52355
56250
0

49673
457366
269920
245271
53515
81825
0

48390
440945
271579
254567
55369
100150
67

46140
408539
251719
255699
56068
118868
264

43134
393484
249695
264355
56188
123187
427

41358
384945
241968
275584
55942
125118
620

39901
378414
238545
285884
56410
125536
843

37926
374817
235764
298901
57261
126758
1202

36212
373351
234302
313732
58018
126907
1571

34487
371479
238409
322774
58348
123322
1887

-2.2
-0.6
0.1
1.2
1.5
5.2
0.0

-0.7
-1.1
-0.7
0.4
0.5
3.8
0.0

-1.1
-0.6
-0.4
0.8
0.0
0.5
8.9

-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.2
-0.1
5.7

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

88147

104692

149354

194777

244433

264581

282698

300378

316888

331107

342063

5.4

5.0

1.5

1.0

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

5215.6

4846.8
2180.0
2666.7
3779.7
1341.6
159.8
520.3
457.9
249.2
1050.9
236.1
830.9

4626.1
2091.0
2535.1
3593.1
1201.1
150.0
539.6
430.7
220.7
1051.0
257.0
775.9

4296.7
1913.4
2383.3
3265.4
1045.2
139.7
508.6
392.6
195.5
983.7
273.7
757.5

4142.4
1831.8
2310.6
3117.7
970.8
131.2
492.9
380.3
181.5
961.2
277.8
746.9

3843.9
1606.1
2237.8
2876.1
790.0
125.1
484.3
360.3
159.6
956.7
239.5
728.2

3600.6
1400.4
2200.2
2649.1
619.1
117.0
458.1
350.9
151.8
952.2
226.8
724.7

3446.7
1271.0
2175.7
2509.9
520.0
111.3
433.4
340.0
145.1
960.2
211.5
725.2

3272.6
1106.6
2166.0
2430.4
461.0
107.0
425.5
332.9
140.5
963.4
110.4
731.8

3188.2
1023.7
2164.5
2363.9
401.9
103.9
425.2
323.8
137.6
971.5
86.3
738.0

-0.7

3985.8
1404.5
170.1
693.6
461.0
255.7
1001.0
262.3
967.4

5321.9
2513.8
2808.1
4138.3
1483.1
174.2
640.7
491.2
266.4
1082.7
280.3
903.3

-1.2
-1.3
-1.1
-1.5
-2.5
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
-2.4
-0.7
1.5
-0.9

-1.1
-1.7
-0.6
-1.3
-2.8
-1.1
-0.5
-0.9
-2.0
-0.3
-1.3
-0.4

-0.9
-2.2
-0.2
-1.0
-3.3
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
-5.0
0.1

91.8

93.6

85.3

81.4

75.6

72.9

67.6

63.3

60.6

57.6

56.1

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

86

-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-2.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
-1.0
-1.5

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

EU28: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

485.587
10725.4
161.6
2.30
46.7

493.791
11777.0
155.7
2.26
52.5

503.626
12301.4
143.7
2.14
52.7

510.817
13210.2
132.2
2.06
53.8

516.986
14246.4
116.8
1.96
53.0

521.721
15448.3
105.7
1.91
54.2

524.921
16667.7
96.7
1.78
55.1

527.075
17866.6
89.8
1.65
54.7

528.203
19150.8
84.1
1.56
54.8

528.090
20517.0
79.4
1.49
55.4

526.472
21944.1
74.3
1.45
56.6

0.4
1.4
-1.2
-0.7

0.3
1.5
-2.0
-0.9

0.2
1.6
-1.9
-0.9

0.0
1.4
-1.3
-1.0

1092.1
10.2

1338.5
11.4

1569.4
12.8

1892.2
14.3

2112.4
14.8

2233.1
14.5

2338.3
14.0

2410.8
13.5

2504.6
13.1

2608.5
12.7

2699.6
12.3

3.7

3.0

1.0

0.7

105.6
0.0
40.0
47.1

104.3
0.0
39.2
47.5

100.0
100.0
100.0
37.8
48.4

97.0
94.2
90.1
35.9
46.8

91.2
84.2
78.9
32.1
44.2

85.4
77.9
71.9
29.0
41.9

81.1
71.5
64.6
26.9
40.0

76.9
66.9
60.2
25.6
38.8

73.2
62.6
56.2
24.9
37.7

70.8
58.5
53.0
24.4
37.0

68.3
54.1
49.3
24.1
36.5

-0.5
0.0
-0.6
0.3

-0.9
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
-0.9

-1.2
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0

-0.9
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.5

0.39
2.14
2.09
1.61
1.54
2.92

0.37
2.08
1.94
1.58
1.48
2.94

0.33
1.97
1.79
1.47
1.33
2.86

0.29
1.91
1.77
1.38
1.21
2.82

0.25
1.83
1.66
1.31
1.13
2.74

0.23
1.78
1.61
1.27
1.06
2.72

0.18
1.74
1.58
1.21
0.95
2.70

0.14
1.70
1.50
1.17
0.90
2.69

0.11
1.66
1.43
1.13
0.86
2.68

0.09
1.63
1.39
1.10
0.81
2.67

0.08
1.61
1.38
1.07
0.80
2.66

-1.6
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-1.5
-0.2

-2.8
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.6
-0.4

-3.3
-0.5
-0.5
-0.8
-1.7
-0.1

-4.0
-0.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.9
-0.1

7.5
0.6

8.4
1.2

12.4
4.7

16.1
6.5

20.9
10.3

22.7
11.2

24.4
12.0

25.9
12.5

27.1
12.7

28.0
13.3

28.7
13.9

3007267
945027
933660
181203
514392
46848
358408
22253
118
5358
0
650058
136924
114281
101207
12893
180
0
398853
92439
0
186470
129190
67499
15128
0
567

3287285
997733
974939
141358
699743
83787
311883
70453
1459
5930
0
711660
134494
147780
105529
40510
1740
0
429386
98998
0
180630
169054
59434
19615
0
652

3328110
916685
830048
86851
795653
145901
374576
149202
22363
6831
0
838114
131323
226757
112159
84512
29846
240
480034
101203
0
175756
224922
54039
24590
0
726

3416910
887261
804369
45900
753663
188902
368453
263506
96144
8712
0
930128
123150
318900
118306
123698
76309
586
488079
103103
0
163211
253142
42299
28633
0
794

3428487
749295
706358
26245
708895
221059
374203
487529
142787
12116
0
1017923
111162
437092
120602
204726
110110
1655
469669
113668
904
141800
258836
33495
34635
0
903

3530642
705996
637739
24658
723849
231132
383179
632113
177015
14959
0
1067357
96912
517020
122416
258081
133723
2800
453425
114259
904
121501
266000
27775
37238
0
910

3664473
799389
475702
20658
738362
243292
396372
768244
206378
16077
0
1138323
107006
582765
124904
305395
149432
3033
448552
115758
1610
103961
280581
23784
39250
0
975

3806113
868122
343302
20977
764991
271722
408332
855332
251189
22146
0
1201184
115171
639395
128871
335743
171589
3193
446618
120668
7630
90682
291299
20062
42948
0
1627

3991697
896436
313974
21545
791462
314588
415145
907067
304009
27472
0
1274366
118838
693700
130562
355654
203942
3542
461828
127236
18271
88121
295982
21343
54237
0
2145

4202590
922451
349630
22478
798815
328910
418844
991599
328694
41168
0
1328626
122076
741307
132244
385234
217561
6268
465243
135974
34464
86837
297331
20242
57890
0
2943

4338637
923898
362710
22176
793169
343434
425214
1075357
347363
45316
0
1382012
121993
785504
134453
413394
230791
6865
474514
138054
38410
81632
301988
22106
65535
0
3253

1.0
-0.3
-1.2
-7.1
4.5
12.0
0.4
21.0
68.9
2.5
0.0
2.6
-0.4
7.1
1.0
20.7
66.7
0.0
1.9
0.9
0.0
-0.6
5.7
-2.2
5.0
0.0
2.5

0.3
-2.0
-1.6
-11.3
-1.1
4.2
0.0
12.6
20.4
5.9
0.0
2.0
-1.7
6.8
0.7
9.3
13.9
21.3
-0.2
1.2
0.0
-2.1
1.4
-4.7
3.5
0.0
2.2

0.7
0.6
-3.9
-2.4
0.4
1.0
0.6
4.7
3.8
2.9
0.0
1.1
-0.4
2.9
0.4
4.1
3.1
6.2
-0.5
0.2
5.9
-3.1
0.8
-3.4
1.3
0.0
0.8

0.8
0.7
-1.3
0.4
0.4
1.7
0.4
1.7
2.6
5.3
0.0
1.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.5
2.2
4.2
0.3
0.9
17.2
-1.2
0.4
-0.4
2.6
0.0
6.2

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

50.0

50.0

43.1

40.0

36.8

36.3

35.4

34.9

34.4

34.7

34.3

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

37.5
11.5
0.0
45.8
31.4
14.4

38.4
11.8
0.0
44.8
30.4
14.4

38.4
12.6
0.0
48.5
27.5
21.0

40.4
14.3
0.0
53.1
26.0
27.1

40.8
15.8
0.2
58.0
21.9
36.1

41.4
16.4
0.2
60.7
20.0
40.7

42.7
16.1
0.5
66.3
21.8
44.5

43.1
16.4
1.7
70.3
22.8
47.5

43.5
16.7
3.4
71.8
22.5
49.3

43.8
16.7
5.0
72.1
21.9
50.2

44.6
16.2
6.9
72.8
21.3
51.6

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

5894.2
519.6
4425.4
447.8
459.7
41.7

6251.6
527.2
4694.5
459.7
530.7
39.5

6466.4
512.8
4893.4
496.4
525.6
38.1

6755.8
531.5
5052.9
536.7
595.2
39.5

7045.6
551.0
5195.6
581.1
677.0
40.9

7491.4
575.5
5455.5
643.0
774.7
42.7

7962.2
602.4
5713.7
714.0
887.5
44.7

8288.2
623.2
5884.8
763.3
970.7
46.2

8629.0
644.5
6057.0
816.2
1063.8
47.7

8885.6
659.3
6182.6
852.9
1141.8
48.9

9148.2
674.6
6309.0
890.2
1224.2
50.2

0.9
-0.1
1.0
1.0
1.4
-0.9

0.9
0.7
0.6
1.6
2.6
0.7

1.2
0.9
1.0
2.1
2.7
0.9

0.7
0.6
0.5
1.1
1.6
0.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

2227.6
1522.0
405.5
300.1

2545.3
1803.3
416.0
325.9

2493.4
1764.4
392.5
336.6

2714.3
1923.1
435.5
355.7

2938.5
2076.4
485.8
376.2

3174.5
2232.6
540.5
401.4

3430.2
2399.4
602.3
428.5

3568.7
2495.2
632.2
441.2

3713.1
2594.8
663.9
454.4

3809.7
2661.2
684.3
464.2

3907.6
2729.6
704.0
474.0

1.1
1.5
-0.3
1.2

1.7
1.6
2.2
1.1

1.6
1.5
2.2
1.3

0.7
0.6
0.8
0.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

340814
7580
178015
95660
8093
45492
5973

366066
7663
181818
111643
7855
50512
6575

364944
7522
182270
112043
7399
49820
5892

369793
7717
176038
117949
7948
54002
6140

356476
7802
157091
120195
8539
56470
6379

350461
7852
145721
122455
9162
58568
6702

351233
7928
141680
126128
9805
58655
7037

351069
8009
140423
127299
9925
58250
7164

354945
8135
140890
128780
9976
59878
7287

357888
8186
141428
129671
9821
61433
7349

362851
8270
142783
131469
9625
63310
7394

0.7
-0.1
0.2
1.6
-0.9
0.9
-0.1

-0.2
0.4
-1.5
0.7
1.4
1.3
0.8

-0.1
0.2
-1.0
0.5
1.4
0.4
1.0

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.2

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

87

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

EU27: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

944342
214627
174729
208082
243841
103064
30312
65696
1913
430
4712

900832
196059
135432
188813
257516
123012
26273
84522
6057
806
5354

837269
163855
102804
156311
236563
177738
31492
123862
12817
3686
5881

828717
149960
90236
148399
229122
211000
31099
135363
22594
13983
7961

805878
139654
76958
140735
193490
255042
31582
149828
41816
22583
9233

772881
127408
64882
124505
180877
275209
32336
150803
54240
28390
9441

747783
88528
55168
109610
201194
293284
33413
152022
65944
31822
10083

753374
79202
43158
101917
214924
314173
34427
154005
73433
37117
15192

755340
74288
33881
95373
217916
333881
34978
160523
77838
41265
19277

753106
72768
22973
82682
220665
354017
35279
163680
85089
44517
25452

735318
69144
16113
69668
215930
364463
35816
162971
92284
45624
27767

-1.2
-2.7
-5.2
-2.8
-0.3
5.6
0.4
6.5
20.9
24.0
2.2

-0.4
-1.6
-2.9
-1.0
-2.0
3.7
0.0
1.9
12.6
19.9
4.6

-0.7
-4.5
-3.3
-2.5
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.1
4.7
3.5
0.9

-0.1
-1.2
-6.0
-2.2
0.4
1.1
0.3
0.3
1.7
1.8
5.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

825138
97795
532790
514059
18730
192527
1685

983457
124587
600393
580747
19646
257287
972

952254
110227
560977
537578
23399
275525
297

962484
115797
549056
524410
24645
284075
-548

905697
96286
525822
503630
22192
263726
-2087

909485
87928
518548
494705
23843
281544
-1986

914961
85074
519130
491120
28010
287422
-2021

905605
61859
522940
491490
31450
296573
-2313

911730
54208
525756
490288
35468
305137
-2304

934342
54715
535671
494530
41141
316319
-2265

956654
54644
541074
493810
47264
332519
-2534

1.4
1.2
0.5
0.4
2.3
3.6
-15.9

-0.5
-1.3
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.0

0.1
-1.2
-0.1
-0.3
2.4
0.9
0.0

0.2
-2.2
0.2
0.0
2.7
0.7
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1724865
320845
661160
393935
243841
1685
103398

1824307
317303
679353
446003
257516
972
123159

1758899
279970
617021
441796
236563
297
183251

1737735
265757
586043
432258
229122
-548
225103

1656059
235940
548184
403541
193490
-2087
276991

1624704
215336
527692
404124
180877
-1986
298660

1602873
173602
516932
394526
201194
-2021
318640

1596577
141061
507745
394440
214924
-2313
340720

1602634
128496
500686
395026
217916
-2304
362814

1619850
127483
498134
391914
220665
-2265
383919

1620981
123788
494703
393679
215930
-2534
395414

0.2
-1.4
-0.7
1.2
-0.3
-15.9
5.9

-0.6
-1.7
-1.2
-0.9
-2.0
0.0
4.2

-0.3
-3.0
-0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.0
1.4

0.1
-1.7
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
1.1

18.6
38.3
22.8
14.1
6.0

17.4
37.2
24.4
14.1
6.8

15.9
35.1
25.1
13.4
10.4

15.3
33.7
24.9
13.2
13.0

14.2
33.1
24.4
11.7
16.7

13.3
32.5
24.9
11.1
18.4

10.8
32.3
24.6
12.6
19.9

8.8
31.8
24.7
13.5
21.3

8.0
31.2
24.6
13.6
22.6

7.9
30.8
24.2
13.6
23.7

7.6
30.5
24.3
13.3
24.4

2996104
394494

3274309
404404

3313455
375229

3402657
366716

3413997
352276

3516471
357998

3649690
364937

3790687
382104

3974224
411365

4182474
444776

4318132
470483

1.0
-0.5

0.3
-0.6

0.7
0.4

0.8
1.3

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

383708
222681
39647
102348
14918
4114
0

425514
228404
32795
133223
26447
4645
0

416002
197074
20411
148579
45111
4828
0

381831
186584
10813
131136
47322
5976
0

351334
159666
5892
124086
54894
6796
0

337023
143772
5241
125571
55586
6853
0

298398
105411
4532
124119
56992
7345
0

281799
76961
4005
126513
62066
12254
0

287496
68138
4102
129143
69955
16157
0

298037
70192
4089
127555
74033
22167
0

297858
68205
4051
124256
76839
24506
0

0.8
-1.2
-6.4
3.8
11.7
1.6
0.0

-1.7
-2.1
-11.7
-1.8
2.0
3.5
0.0

-1.6
-4.1
-2.6
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.0

0.0
-2.2
-0.6
0.0
1.5
6.2
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

1070906
735155
705
18583
316463

1104746
757897
3101
19414
324334

997096
665701
13293
20716
297386

967473
642900
18195
22414
283964

905985
611217
26044
20696
248029

869474
590680
26354
19715
232725

875489
578358
27061
19583
250487

873609
567760
27299
18457
260093

862979
557664
27263
17196
260857

858566
551566
28082
17543
261375

847511
543864
29324
18353
255971

-0.7
-1.0
34.1
1.1
-0.6

-1.0
-0.9
7.0
0.0
-1.8

-0.3
-0.6
0.4
-0.6
0.1

-0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
0.1

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Energy Branch Consumption

86159

91120

87583

81858

76734

73445

70575

68704

68096

68447

68588

0.2

-1.3

-0.8

-0.1

116435

120003

114288

118704

121702

120941

120958

120573

119179

118779

119364

-0.2

0.6

-0.1

-0.1

1122342

1184339

1151237

1164352

1130486

1123692

1118669

1118521

1125525

1136865

1143392

0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

331020
217073
113947
284627
165325
341371

328869
215974
112895
309867
178847
366756

289602
187141
102460
309652
186849
365133

303343
196349
106994
310012
180916
370082

304636
196731
107905
297387
171626
356837

304062
194351
109710
298054
170601
350975

305330
193921
111409
295351
166207
351781

302974
191287
111687
296789
167105
351653

302354
188976
113378
299231
168378
355562

305188
189124
116063
301964
171175
358538

307133
187519
119613
301377
171368
363514

-1.3
-1.5
-1.1
0.8
1.2
0.7

0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2

0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1

0.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2

61705
483224
265916
216590
45802
49105
0

54278
499695
284196
238178
52098
55894
0

49523
454477
268632
243907
53270
81428
0

48249
438055
270154
253155
55094
99580
67

46002
405818
250372
254202
55787
118042
264

43008
390845
248241
262890
55900
122382
426

41230
382280
240576
274025
55655
124282
619

39771
375771
237136
284243
56123
124635
841

37795
372181
234343
297183
56980
125842
1200

36083
370727
232867
311900
57734
125986
1569

34358
368863
236942
320867
58063
122416
1884

-2.2
-0.6
0.1
1.2
1.5
5.2
0.0

-0.7
-1.1
-0.7
0.4
0.5
3.8
0.0

-1.1
-0.6
-0.4
0.8
0.0
0.5
8.9

-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.2
-0.1
5.7

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

87331

103846

148412

193514

242889

262990

280995

298554

314930

329030

340005

5.4

5.0

1.5

1.0

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

5189.9

4818.9
2169.3
2649.6
3761.2
1337.3
158.0
517.5
455.7
247.8
1044.8
233.6
824.2

4599.3
2080.8
2518.5
3575.1
1197.4
148.5
536.6
428.7
219.3
1044.6
254.3
769.8

4271.7
1904.2
2367.5
3248.6
1041.8
138.4
505.7
390.7
194.2
977.8
270.9
752.3

4118.1
1823.2
2294.9
3101.7
968.0
129.9
489.9
378.2
180.2
955.4
274.9
741.5

3820.4
1598.2
2222.2
2860.4
787.5
123.9
481.5
358.2
158.4
950.9
237.1
722.8

3577.4
1392.4
2185.0
2633.5
616.6
115.9
455.3
348.8
150.6
946.3
224.5
719.5

3423.4
1262.8
2160.5
2494.1
517.3
110.1
430.6
338.0
143.9
954.2
209.2
720.0

3250.9
1099.9
2150.9
2414.4
458.2
105.9
422.7
330.9
139.3
957.5
109.9
726.5

3166.5
1017.0
2149.5
2347.9
399.0
102.8
422.3
321.8
136.4
965.5
85.9
732.7

-0.7

3968.9
1400.3
168.1
690.7
459.1
254.2
996.5
259.7
961.3

5291.8
2501.2
2790.5
4118.1
1478.0
172.2
637.1
488.8
265.0
1077.0
277.2
896.4

-1.2
-1.3
-1.1
-1.5
-2.5
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
-2.4
-0.7
1.5
-0.9

-1.1
-1.7
-0.6
-1.3
-2.8
-1.1
-0.5
-0.9
-2.0
-0.3
-1.3
-0.4

-0.9
-2.2
-0.2
-1.0
-3.3
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
-5.0
0.1

91.8

93.6

85.3

81.4

75.6

72.9

67.6

63.3

60.6

57.5

56.0

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

88

-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-2.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
-1.1
-1.5

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

EU27: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

481.081
10670.6
161.6
2.30
46.7

489.325
11722.3
155.6
2.26
52.5

499.201
12256.0
143.5
2.14
52.7

506.264
13159.1
132.1
2.06
53.7

512.354
14189.9
116.7
1.96
52.9

517.061
15386.1
105.6
1.91
54.1

520.263
16600.1
96.6
1.78
55.0

522.430
17793.2
89.7
1.65
54.6

523.573
19073.1
84.0
1.56
54.7

523.481
20435.2
79.3
1.49
55.4

521.899
21858.7
74.2
1.45
56.5

0.4
1.4
-1.2
-0.7

0.3
1.5
-2.0
-0.9

0.2
1.6
-1.9
-0.9

0.0
1.4
-1.3
-1.0

1087.9
10.2

1332.4
11.4

1560.5
12.7

1880.9
14.3

2099.8
14.8

2219.4
14.4

2323.6
14.0

2395.3
13.5

2488.5
13.0

2591.6
12.7

2682.3
12.3

3.7

3.0

1.0

0.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
40.0
47.1

93.2
98.7
97.4
39.2
47.6

83.7
94.7
94.8
37.8
48.3

81.1
89.2
85.3
35.9
46.8

76.3
79.7
74.7
32.1
44.2

71.4
73.8
68.1
29.0
41.9

67.9
67.7
61.1
26.9
40.0

64.3
63.3
57.0
25.6
38.8

61.2
59.3
53.2
24.9
37.7

59.2
55.4
50.2
24.4
37.0

57.0
51.2
46.6
24.1
36.4

-1.8
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
0.3

-0.9
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
-0.9

-1.2
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
-1.0

-0.9
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.5

0.39
2.14
2.09
1.61
1.54
2.92

0.37
2.08
1.94
1.58
1.48
2.94

0.33
1.97
1.79
1.47
1.33
2.86

0.29
1.91
1.77
1.38
1.21
2.82

0.25
1.83
1.66
1.31
1.13
2.74

0.23
1.78
1.61
1.27
1.06
2.72

0.18
1.74
1.58
1.21
0.95
2.70

0.14
1.70
1.50
1.18
0.90
2.69

0.11
1.66
1.42
1.13
0.85
2.68

0.09
1.63
1.39
1.10
0.81
2.67

0.08
1.61
1.38
1.07
0.80
2.66

-1.6
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-1.5
-0.2

-2.8
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.6
-0.4

-3.3
-0.5
-0.5
-0.8
-1.7
-0.1

-4.0
-0.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.9
-0.1

7.5
0.6

8.4
1.3

12.4
4.7

16.1
6.5

20.9
10.3

22.7
11.2

24.4
12.0

25.9
12.5

27.1
12.7

28.0
13.3

28.7
13.9

2996677
945027
932109
179609
512821
46848
352534
22253
118
5358
0
646747
136924
112494
99421
12893
180
0
397328
91881
0
186157
128409
67112
15084
0
567

3274931
997733
972611
139503
697929
83773
305550
70443
1459
5930
0
708073
134494
145938
103693
40504
1740
0
427641
98483
0
180309
168068
59040
19571
0
652

3314111
916685
827663
86291
793100
145868
366247
149063
22363
6831
0
834264
131323
224768
110259
84423
29845
240
478173
100717
0
175431
223825
53643
24548
0
726

3402657
887261
803081
45708
748722
188714
361611
262722
96127
8712
0
925354
123150
316443
116259
123304
76293
586
485761
102587
0
162895
251589
41899
28584
0
794

3413997
749295
705123
26060
704250
220932
367238
486230
142752
12116
0
1012725
111162
434378
118555
204086
110082
1655
467185
113107
904
141596
256995
33104
34587
0
903

3516471
705996
637045
24477
719829
230724
376000
630696
176745
14959
0
1061915
96912
514107
120380
257384
133542
2800
450896
113752
904
121297
264095
27415
37179
0
910

3649690
799389
475234
20476
734499
242597
388519
766793
206106
16077
0
1132393
107006
579666
122700
304682
149251
3033
445720
115255
1610
103771
278350
23424
39200
0
975

3790687
868122
342551
20793
761045
270927
400310
853875
250918
22146
0
1194810
115171
636263
126636
335027
171407
3193
443377
120028
7630
90492
288333
20018
42907
0
1627

3974224
896436
313245
21249
786904
313747
406715
905093
303363
27472
0
1267489
118838
690015
128250
354707
203516
3542
458636
126663
18271
87932
293082
21281
54197
0
2145

4182474
922451
349227
22141
792473
327621
410219
989403
327771
41168
0
1321250
122076
737329
129913
384193
216954
6268
461845
134995
34464
86647
294453
20185
57616
0
2943

4318132
923898
362360
21840
786463
342281
416470
1073065
346440
45316
0
1374366
121993
781473
132107
412315
230185
6865
470900
136995
38410
81529
298817
22040
65261
0
3253

1.0
-0.3
-1.2
-7.1
4.5
12.0
0.4
20.9
68.9
2.5
0.0
2.6
-0.4
7.2
1.0
20.7
66.7
0.0
1.9
0.9
0.0
-0.6
5.7
-2.2
5.0
0.0
2.5

0.3
-2.0
-1.6
-11.3
-1.2
4.2
0.0
12.6
20.4
5.9
0.0
2.0
-1.7
6.8
0.7
9.2
13.9
21.3
-0.2
1.2
0.0
-2.1
1.4
-4.7
3.5
0.0
2.2

0.7
0.6
-3.9
-2.4
0.4
0.9
0.6
4.7
3.7
2.9
0.0
1.1
-0.4
2.9
0.3
4.1
3.1
6.2
-0.5
0.2
5.9
-3.1
0.8
-3.4
1.3
0.0
0.8

0.8
0.7
-1.3
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.3
1.7
2.6
5.3
0.0
1.0
0.7
1.5
0.4
1.5
2.2
4.2
0.3
0.9
17.2
-1.2
0.4
-0.3
2.6
0.0
6.2

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

50.0

50.1

43.2

40.0

36.9

36.3

35.5

34.9

34.5

34.7

34.4

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

37.6
11.4
0.0
45.8
31.5
14.3

38.4
11.7
0.0
44.7
30.5
14.3

38.4
12.6
0.0
48.5
27.7
20.8

40.4
14.3
0.0
53.1
26.1
27.0

40.7
15.8
0.2
58.0
21.9
36.0

41.3
16.4
0.2
60.7
20.1
40.6

42.7
16.1
0.5
66.3
21.9
44.4

43.0
16.4
1.7
70.3
22.9
47.4

43.5
16.6
3.4
71.8
22.6
49.2

43.8
16.7
5.0
72.2
22.1
50.1

44.5
16.1
6.9
72.9
21.4
51.5

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

5866.2
516.2
4405.3
446.1
456.9
41.7

6218.8
523.8
4670.3
457.9
527.3
39.5

6431.5
509.5
4867.4
494.1
522.5
38.1

6717.6
527.8
5024.8
534.2
591.3
39.4

7003.9
547.0
5165.3
578.4
672.3
40.9

7446.6
571.3
5423.4
640.1
769.1
42.7

7913.9
597.9
5679.6
710.9
880.8
44.7

8237.5
618.6
5849.7
760.2
962.9
46.1

8576.0
639.7
6020.9
813.0
1054.7
47.6

8830.8
654.5
6146.3
849.6
1131.4
48.9

9091.6
669.7
6272.6
886.8
1212.4
50.1

0.9
-0.1
1.0
1.0
1.4
-0.9

0.9
0.7
0.6
1.6
2.6
0.7

1.2
0.9
1.0
2.1
2.7
0.9

0.7
0.6
0.5
1.1
1.6
0.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

2222.9
1519.1
403.7
300.1

2533.0
1794.0
413.2
325.8

2481.9
1755.6
389.9
336.4

2701.7
1913.5
432.7
355.6

2924.8
2065.9
482.8
376.1

3159.5
2221.1
537.2
401.2

3413.8
2386.7
598.7
428.3

3551.4
2481.9
628.5
441.0

3694.9
2580.7
660.0
454.2

3790.9
2646.5
680.4
463.9

3888.2
2714.4
700.1
473.8

1.1
1.5
-0.3
1.2

1.7
1.6
2.2
1.1

1.6
1.5
2.2
1.3

0.7
0.6
0.8
0.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

339288
7526
176833
95514
8052
45418
5945

364165
7609
180606
111182
7809
50416
6542

362888
7468
181000
111506
7349
49712
5854

367610
7660
174730
117343
7904
53873
6099

354311
7742
155832
119585
8495
56322
6335

348358
7791
144537
121853
9119
58404
6655

349092
7867
140525
125482
9760
58472
6986

348902
7949
139292
126617
9880
58054
7111

352761
8074
139768
128090
9931
59665
7232

355707
8125
140323
128985
9778
61202
7293

360644
8210
141691
130764
9583
63059
7337

0.7
-0.1
0.2
1.6
-0.9
0.9
-0.2

-0.2
0.4
-1.5
0.7
1.5
1.3
0.8

-0.1
0.2
-1.0
0.5
1.4
0.4
1.0

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.2

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

89

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Austria: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

9799
293
1114
1533
0
6859
3597
3169
6
63
25

9992
0
1007
1404
0
7580
3154
4189
114
93
30

11837
0
1107
1486
0
9244
3302
5559
177
171
35

12068
0
965
1414
0
9689
3552
5506
288
324
20

11850
0
694
969
0
10186
3705
5471
617
367
26

11667
0
302
918
0
10447
3789
5344
870
420
25

11793
0
251
738
0
10804
3910
5193
1149
518
34

11421
0
167
575
0
10679
3968
4911
1149
627
25

11173
0
11
307
0
10856
4006
4880
1298
643
29

11178
0
0
14
0
11163
4026
5024
1319
771
23

11248
0
0
0
0
11248
4100
5018
1328
774
28

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

19132
3019
11012
7962
3050
5253
-118

24570
3969
13257
8170
5088
7153
229

21400
2981
11638
7061
4577
6114
200

23534
3701
12035
7284
4750
7075
13

22337
3048
11951
7396
4555
6332
104

21799
2533
11411
7207
4205
6647
84

20997
2292
11112
7058
4054
6261
86

20785
1929
10953
7006
3947
6568
91

21071
1581
11007
7095
3912
7099
98

21271
1522
11005
7099
3906
7275
74

21537
1440
10969
7076
3893
7578
58

1.1
-0.1
0.6
-1.2
4.1
1.5
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.4
-6.3

-0.6
-2.8
-0.7
-0.5
-1.2
-0.1
-1.9

0.1
-2.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
1.0
-1.9

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

29179
3597
12356
6519
0
-118
6825

34398
3999
14480
8159
0
229
7531

34618
3397
13091
8214
0
200
9715

35602
3701
12999
8489
0
13
10399

34187
3048
12646
7301
0
104
11089

33466
2533
11714
7565
0
84
11571

32790
2292
11363
6999
0
86
12052

32207
1929
11120
7142
0
91
11924

32244
1581
11017
7405
0
98
12143

32449
1522
11005
7289
0
74
12559

32785
1440
10969
7578
0
58
12740

1.7
-0.6
0.6
2.3
0.0
0.0
3.6

-0.1
-1.1
-0.3
-1.2
0.0
-6.3
1.3

-0.4
-2.8
-1.1
-0.4
0.0
-1.9
0.8

0.0
-2.3
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-1.9
0.3

12.3
42.3
22.3
0.0
23.4

11.6
42.1
23.7
0.0
21.9

9.8
37.8
23.7
0.0
28.1

10.4
36.5
23.8
0.0
29.2

8.9
37.0
21.4
0.0
32.4

7.6
35.0
22.6
0.0
34.6

7.0
34.7
21.3
0.0
36.8

6.0
34.5
22.2
0.0
37.0

4.9
34.2
23.0
0.0
37.7

4.7
33.9
22.5
0.0
38.7

4.4
33.5
23.1
0.0
38.9

59863
5961

64054
7321

67925
7594

71196
8147

70632
7748

73628
7977

76369
8255

78451
8460

81667
8851

84906
9239

88377
9615

1.3
2.5

0.4
0.2

0.8
0.6

0.7
0.8

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

3877
1216
278
1961
421
0
0

5425
1512
262
2836
814
2
0

5647
1019
177
2871
1580
1
0

6005
1142
92
3125
1639
7
0

4739
346
311
2448
1627
7
0

4509
94
71
2703
1634
7
0

4104
82
59
2333
1623
7
0

4037
164
58
2426
1381
8
0

4128
0
68
2492
1560
8
0

4380
0
72
2515
1785
8
0

4544
0
82
2565
1890
8
0

3.8
-1.8
-4.4
3.9
14.1
0.0
0.0

-1.7
-10.2
5.8
-1.6
0.3
19.1
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

11542
9060
16
557
1910

12016
9349
45
613
2009

11623
8155
472
931
2065

11822
8251
556
862
2153

11567
8103
586
757
2122

10799
7534
587
760
1918

10256
7336
595
738
1587

9611
7205
607
656
1143

9386
7143
630
630
983

9315
7137
668
588
924

9284
7114
716
600
853

0.1
-1.0
40.5
5.3
0.8

0.0
-0.1
2.2
-2.1
0.3

-1.2
-1.0
0.2
-0.3
-2.9

-0.5
-0.2
0.9
-1.0
-3.1

Energy Branch Consumption

1348

1615

1763

1832

1705

1570

1465

1342

1278

1253

1261

2.7

-0.3

-1.5

-0.7

Non-Energy Uses

1718

1716

1865

1968

2148

2098

2047

2022

2028

2061

2156

0.8

1.4

-0.5

0.3

23670

28141

27933

28470

27749

27316

26969

26727

26810

26968

27221

1.7

-0.1

-0.3

0.0

7236
5276
1960
6322
3066
7046

8762
6088
2674
6817
3445
9118

8843
6004
2839
6896
3396
8797

9147
6192
2955
6911
3142
9270

9056
6132
2925
6509
2959
9223

8833
5929
2904
6534
3100
8849

8780
5882
2898
6442
3043
8704

8622
5718
2904
6371
3059
8675

8585
5612
2974
6338
3138
8748

8632
5543
3089
6332
3199
8806

8762
5507
3255
6299
3253
8907

2.0
1.3
3.8
0.9
1.0
2.2

0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.6
-1.4
0.5

-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.6

0.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.3
0.1

1367
9832
4464
4432
1020
2555
0

1416
12095
5125
5013
1353
3140
0

1133
10647
4989
5274
1744
4145
0

1256
10783
5022
5320
1792
4296
1

1385
10123
4634
5402
1725
4475
4

1246
9537
4605
5628
1698
4595
7

1281
9255
4300
5848
1701
4575
9

1169
9062
4125
6023
1706
4631
10

1087
9023
4229
6274
1699
4484
13

1049
8987
4075
6494
1742
4604
17

995
8954
4179
6742
1730
4599
21

-1.9
0.8
1.1
1.8
5.5
5.0
-100.0

2.0
-0.5
-0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.0

-0.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.8
-0.1
0.2
8.0

-1.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
4.3

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

6126

7090

8554

9041

9895

10233

10918

11061

11228

11607

11775

3.4

1.5

1.0

0.4

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

84.8

89.7
34.9
54.9
71.9
15.5
4.3
16.9
7.6
3.2
24.3
5.5
12.4

92.2
37.7
54.5
73.9
15.5
4.5
19.0
6.9
2.5
25.5
5.7
12.6

85.0
33.0
52.0
66.8
11.7
4.3
17.6
5.9
2.1
25.2
6.0
12.2

80.3
30.5
49.9
62.2
10.3
3.9
16.3
5.7
2.1
24.0
6.0
12.2

74.9
27.1
47.8
57.4
8.1
3.4
15.4
5.4
1.7
23.4
5.6
11.9

70.6
24.6
46.1
53.9
7.1
2.8
14.1
5.1
1.6
23.2
5.1
11.6

68.7
23.2
45.5
52.3
6.3
2.5
13.8
4.9
1.6
23.3
4.9
11.5

68.0
22.9
45.1
51.6
6.4
2.4
13.4
4.7
1.5
23.3
4.9
11.5

67.9
22.8
45.2
51.6
6.6
2.3
13.3
4.4
1.5
23.4
4.8
11.6

0.6

65.6
12.5
3.4
16.6
8.9
3.9
20.2
4.7
14.5

97.0
38.1
58.9
78.6
17.0
3.9
18.3
8.6
4.4
26.6
5.0
13.4

0.9
2.1
2.2
0.2
-1.5
-1.9
1.9
1.6
-1.5
0

-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.7
-2.8
0.0
0.4
-2.6
-4.1
0.4
0.9
-0.2
0

-1.3
-1.9
-0.8
-1.5
-3.6
-2.4
-1.3
-0.9
-1.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.3
0

-0.5
-0.9
-0.3
-0.5
-1.1
-1.8
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
0

107.20

122.70

113.50

116.70

107.50

101.60

94.80

89.40

86.90

86.00

86.00

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.9
0.0
-51.5 -100.0
-0.1
-4.6
-0.3
-4.2
0.0
0.0
3.0
1.0
-0.9
1.2
5.8
-0.2
40.9
13.3
10.6
7.9
3.4
-2.8

0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-9.7 -100.0
-2.7 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
6.4
0.7
3.5
2.0
2.7
-1.0

-1.4
0.5
-13.4 -100.0
-15.3
1.6
-0.5
0.5
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

90

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Austria: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

8.002
245.5
118.9
2.25
65.6

8.201
266.8
128.9
2.29
71.4

8.375
286.2
121.0
2.08
61.8

8.470
312.5
113.9
2.08
66.1

8.591
337.7
101.2
1.95
65.3

8.730
361.3
92.6
1.86
65.1

8.850
385.4
85.1
1.75
64.0

8.934
412.5
78.1
1.67
64.5

8.978
442.5
72.9
1.62
65.3

8.987
474.2
68.4
1.59
65.6

8.969
507.4
64.6
1.57
65.7

0.5
1.5
0.2
-0.8

0.3
1.7
-1.8
-0.6

0.3
1.3
-1.7
-1.1

0.1
1.4
-1.4
-0.5

22.2
9.0

29.6
11.1

35.0
12.2

41.3
13.2

47.2
14.0

49.4
13.7

51.7
13.4

53.3
12.9

55.6
12.6

57.7
12.2

59.6
11.7

4.7

3.0

0.9

0.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
44.5
46.9

111.3
99.6
102.7
47.6
68.2

108.2
95.4
92.4
47.7
67.6

101.0
87.8
78.2
44.9
65.8

91.8
76.5
68.1
38.3
62.6

84.3
71.6
66.3
33.6
59.1

80.0
65.9
60.5
31.5
55.0

76.2
60.5
56.2
30.7
51.9

73.2
55.6
53.3
30.2
49.6

70.6
51.2
50.2
29.8
48.1

68.3
47.0
47.4
29.4
47.0

0.8
-0.5
-0.8
0.7
3.7

-1.6
-2.2
-3.0
-2.2
-0.8

-1.4
-1.5
-1.2
-1.9
-1.3

-0.8
-1.7
-1.2
-0.3
-0.8

0.17
2.10
2.30
1.41
1.26
2.87

0.21
2.05
2.08
1.26
1.26
2.91

0.17
1.86
1.92
1.11
0.94
2.76

0.16
1.90
2.08
1.01
0.81
2.75

0.13
1.83
1.95
0.90
0.71
2.73

0.11
1.76
1.85
0.87
0.67
2.71

0.08
1.70
1.75
0.83
0.57
2.69

0.07
1.65
1.63
0.80
0.54
2.67

0.06
1.62
1.60
0.77
0.51
2.66

0.06
1.59
1.55
0.74
0.48
2.64

0.06
1.57
1.52
0.71
0.47
2.62

0.0
-1.2
-1.8
-2.4
-2.9
-0.4

-3.1
-0.2
0.2
-2.0
-2.7
-0.1

-4.1
-0.7
-1.0
-0.8
-2.1
-0.2

-1.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
-0.1

25.1
3.0

24.4
3.0

29.6
5.4

30.7
8.0

34.5
10.7

36.1
11.9

39.0
13.2

39.8
14.0

40.2
14.9

41.3
15.8

41.4
16.5

59874
0
5727
1702
8864
1675
41836
67
3
0
0
15729
0
9585
9503
77
5
0
6144
2632
0
1713
3221
708
501
0
1

64066
0
7165
1641
14347
2882
36677
1331
21
2
0
16866
0
10399
9558
819
22
0
6467
3383
0
1589
3570
723
584
0
1

67937
0
4918
1275
16132
5052
38406
2064
89
1
0
19497
0
11867
10773
1014
80
0
7630
4597
0
1380
5048
439
761
0
1

71196
0
6392
390
12019
7277
41300
3346
459
11
0
20951
0
12950
11021
1529
400
0
8001
2709
0
1360
5232
413
995
0
1

70632
0
1821
416
10092
7138
43084
7171
899
11
0
23378
0
15106
11205
3114
787
0
8272
2953
0
1352
5390
411
1118
0
1

73628
0
467
383
10363
7183
44055
10114
1053
11
0
24148
0
16721
11340
4507
874
0
7426
3021
0
313
5786
207
1118
0
1

76369
0
408
329
7712
7122
45467
13359
1961
11
0
26360
0
19177
11661
6051
1466
0
7182
2804
0
305
5624
123
1130
0
1

78451
0
300
314
9359
6114
46136
13359
2858
12
0
27311
0
19861
11797
6051
2014
0
7450
3283
0
305
5929
132
1082
0
1

81667
0
0
392
9253
7268
46586
15088
3068
12
0
28379
0
20931
11925
6873
2133
0
7447
3283
0
68
6041
122
1216
0
1

84906
0
0
401
9696
8488
46810
15343
4156
12
0
28854
0
21939
11943
6994
3002
0
6914
3469
0
68
5459
117
1270
0
1

88377
0
0
473
11460
9193
47669
15443
4126
12
0
27824
0
22304
12275
7042
2987
0
5520
3685
0
68
3854
137
1459
0
1

1.3
0.0
-1.5
-2.8
6.2
11.7
-0.9
40.9
39.3
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.0
2.2
1.3
29.4
32.0
0.0
2.2
5.7
0.0
-2.1
4.6
-4.7
4.3
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.0
-9.5
-10.6
-4.6
3.5
1.2
13.3
26.1
25.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
2.4
0.4
11.9
25.7
0.0
0.8
-4.3
0.0
-0.2
0.7
-0.7
3.9
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

41.9

41.5

38.2

36.9

33.0

33.4

31.8

31.6

31.6

32.4

34.9

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

39.9
10.4
0.0
72.8
0.0
72.8

41.3
15.4
0.0
63.9
0.0
63.9

41.7
15.4
0.0
67.1
0.0
67.1

37.4
16.1
0.0
73.6
0.0
73.6

35.3
17.5
0.0
82.5
0.0
82.5

35.1
19.6
0.0
84.8
0.0
84.8

32.7
16.8
0.0
88.9
0.0
88.9

34.3
18.9
0.0
87.3
0.0
87.3

35.3
19.1
0.0
88.2
0.0
88.2

36.5
20.3
0.0
88.1
0.0
88.1

40.0
23.0
0.0
86.5
0.0
86.5

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

95.6
9.2
67.8
12.3
6.1
0.0

101.5
9.3
71.9
13.3
7.0
0.0

106.4
9.9
74.6
14.8
7.1
0.0

112.0
10.3
77.4
15.9
8.3
0.0

117.7
10.8
80.0
17.1
9.8
0.0

123.4
11.1
82.8
18.1
11.4
0.0

129.3
11.5
85.4
19.1
13.2
0.0

134.4
11.8
88.1
19.9
14.4
0.0

139.6
12.2
90.8
20.8
15.7
0.0

143.8
12.4
93.1
21.7
16.5
0.0

148.1
12.7
95.5
22.5
17.4
0.0

1.1
0.7
1.0
1.9
1.4
-1.2

1.0
0.9
0.7
1.5
3.3
0.9

0.9
0.7
0.7
1.1
3.0
0.7

0.7
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.4
0.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

54.2
35.1
16.6
2.4

58.4
37.0
19.0
2.4

50.9
28.7
19.8
2.4

59.9
36.4
21.0
2.5

70.4
45.4
22.3
2.7

74.3
47.7
23.8
2.8

78.4
50.0
25.4
3.0

81.3
51.5
26.8
3.1

84.5
53.0
28.3
3.2

86.9
54.1
29.5
3.3

89.4
55.1
30.8
3.4

-0.6
-2.0
1.8
-0.3

3.3
4.7
1.2
1.4

1.1
1.0
1.3
0.9

0.7
0.5
1.0
0.7

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

6795
123
3514
2326
235
590
60

8822
122
4011
3774
214
679
210

8518
132
4219
3240
210
706
110

8963
137
4084
3739
211
780
120

8917
141
3542
4205
219
797
130

8534
141
3146
4174
224
835
130

8385
141
2995
4092
228
916
140

8347
141
2996
4000
228
967
140

8411
143
3030
3974
228
1022
140

8465
143
3063
3970
224
1050
140

8559
143
3111
3991
221
1077
150

2.3
0.7
1.8
3.4
-1.2
1.8
6.2
0.0

0.5
0.7
-1.7
2.6
0.4
1.2
1.4
0.0

-0.6
0.0
-1.7
-0.3
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.8
0.3
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

0.8
0.7
0.0
0.0
-13.9 -100.0
-2.3
1.8
-2.7
2.0
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.2
6.4
0.7
8.1
3.8
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
2.4
0.8
0.4
0.3
6.9
0.8
6.4
3.6
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
1.4
0.0
0.0
-13.8
-7.2
0.4
-1.9
-11.4
0.5
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

91

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Belgium: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

13606
206
0
2
12422
976
40
931
1
1
3

13717
57
6
0
12277
1377
25
1327
20
3
3

16357
0
1241
0
12367
2748
27
2545
111
60
4

14316
0
1241
0
9721
3353
45
2584
410
314
1

14330
0
1241
0
8538
4550
46
2953
1038
491
21

7650
0
1241
0
1249
5160
48
3017
1309
744
42

6637
0
1241
0
0
5395
46
3017
1512
774
47

6837
0
1241
0
0
5596
46
3042
1627
830
50

7062
0
1241
0
0
5820
46
3059
1752
912
51

7792
0
1241
0
0
6550
47
3250
2122
1081
51

8407
0
1241
0
0
7165
48
3293
2553
1219
51

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

50407
7159
29493
34069
-4576
13278
372

53362
5093
32628
32211
417
14817
542

53093
3131
32552
29849
2703
16791
47

52536
2082
31339
29153
2186
17873
474

50645
2001
30423
28335
2088
16857
283

52563
1916
29962
27919
2043
18358
1181

53027
1891
30255
27989
2265
17932
1807

54197
1433
30641
28127
2514
19131
1832

55481
1371
30639
28026
2613
20694
1654

55869
1312
31309
28344
2965
20487
1694

56520
1243
31744
28519
3224
20790
1799

0.5
-7.9
1.0
-1.3
0.0
2.4
-18.6

-0.5
-4.4
-0.7
-0.5
-2.5
0.0
19.6

0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.6
20.4

0.3
-2.1
0.2
0.1
1.8
0.7
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

59212
7861
24107
13369
12422
372
1081

58981
5024
24752
14728
12277
542
1658

61503
3186
25630
16960
12367
47
3313

58457
2082
24229
17830
9721
474
4120

56163
2001
23034
16675
8538
283
5632

51053
1916
22424
17976
1249
1181
6306

50028
1891
22371
17422
0
1807
6537

50825
1433
22477
18327
0
1832
6756

52024
1371
22479
19577
0
1654
6942

52468
1312
22752
19093
0
1694
7617

53135
1243
22830
19154
0
1799
8110

0.4
-8.6
0.6
2.4
0.0
-18.6
11.9

-0.9
-1.2
-4.5
-0.6
-1.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
-3.6 -100.0
19.6
20.4
5.4
1.5

0.3
-2.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
1.1

13.3
40.7
22.6
21.0
1.8

8.5
42.0
25.0
20.8
2.8

5.2
41.7
27.6
20.1
5.4

3.6
41.4
30.5
16.6
7.0

3.6
41.0
29.7
15.2
10.0

3.8
43.9
35.2
2.4
12.4

3.8
44.7
34.8
0.0
13.1

2.8
44.2
36.1
0.0
13.3

2.6
43.2
37.6
0.0
13.3

2.5
43.4
36.4
0.0
14.5

2.3
43.0
36.0
0.0
15.3

82758
7932

85694
8243

93748
8395

89940
8157

90551
7706

78958
6709

75446
6675

78778
6918

87198
7425

93230
7930

95927
8086

1.3
0.6

-0.3
-0.9

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

7098
2629
187
3790
492
0
0

7677
1833
411
4612
821
0
0

8360
936
33
5669
1722
0
0

8016
414
96
5842
1664
0
0

7681
415
118
5330
1799
19
0

9110
415
241
6418
1998
38
0

8595
415
201
6001
1937
41
0

8434
0
169
6294
1926
45
0

8959
0
162
6953
1798
45
0

8947
0
176
6855
1871
45
0

8288
0
175
6353
1715
45
0

1.7
-9.8
-15.9
4.1
13.4
0.0
0.0

-0.8
-7.8
13.5
-0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

54601
38493
0
44
16064

52924
37443
0
29
15452

50598
35526
362
6
14704

45690
33819
444
17
11409

43967
33068
739
78
10082

36076
32629
741
54
2652

34860
32711
785
28
1336

34926
32857
793
38
1238

34797
32771
824
67
1134

35111
33134
870
69
1038

35288
33357
920
72
939

-0.8
-0.8
0.0
-17.9
-0.9

-1.4
-0.7
7.4
29.0
-3.7

-2.3
-0.1
0.6
-9.7
-18.3

0.1
0.1
0.8
4.8
-1.7

Energy Branch Consumption

2313

2124

3279

3155

3055

2869

2867

2887

2907

2930

2936

3.6

-0.7

-0.6

0.1

Non-Energy Uses

6739

7516

7593

7520

7896

7879

7884

7965

8001

8074

8238

1.2

0.4

0.0

0.2

37358

36585

36427

36226

34867

34456

34667

35503

36310

37022

37775

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

0.4

14059
10570
3489
9474
4164
9661

11711
9049
2662
9920
5028
9927

11182
8227
2956
8970
5976
10299

11021
8014
3007
9019
5865
10321

10872
7908
2964
8572
5614
9809

10649
7724
2926
8560
5542
9704

10694
7696
2997
8307
5661
10006

10985
7814
3171
8396
5867
10256

11350
7921
3429
8406
5938
10616

11484
7899
3585
8516
6140
10883

11856
7997
3860
8518
6251
11150

-2.3
-2.5
-1.6
-0.5
3.7
0.6

-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5

-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.2

0.5
0.2
1.3
0.1
0.5
0.5

3343
16312
10010
6667
492
533
0

1962
16523
10009
6896
428
767
0

1180
14935
11069
7163
668
1411
0

945
14469
11060
7284
636
1831
1

918
13108
10304
7188
914
2431
4

886
12764
10215
7176
945
2461
8

883
12773
10030
7495
957
2515
14

874
12930
10464
7772
857
2583
23

849
13040
10803
8257
687
2635
38

824
13190
10488
8752
987
2727
54

792
13258
10824
9058
990
2786
67

-9.9
-0.9
1.0
0.7
3.1
10.2
0.0

-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
0.0
3.2
5.6
0.0

-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.5
0.3
13.0

-0.5
0.2
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
8.2

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.9
-1.3
-7.4
-96.7 -100.0
0.0
254.2
0.0
0.0
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
-3.6 -100.0
10.9
5.2
1.7
-3.8
5.6
-0.1
10.6
1.5
0.2
55.1
25.0
3.8
50.3
23.3
4.7
3.1
17.3
8.2

-1.8
-1.4

1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.3
0.4
2.7
2.3
0.4

1.2
1.0

1.1
-0.2
0.0 -100.0
5.5
-0.7
1.2
0.3
0.7
-0.6
8.2
0.4
0.0
0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

500

858

1908

3011

4870

5396

5719

5858

5882

6673

7108

14.3

9.8

1.6

1.1

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

150.3

134.1
58.9
75.2
105.4
20.3
6.9
19.5
18.8
10.1
29.9
11.8
16.9

127.4
55.9
71.5
99.8
16.8
6.6
18.8
18.6
9.4
29.7
12.4
15.1

120.2
53.6
66.5
92.0
15.4
6.2
17.4
17.5
8.5
27.1
13.4
14.8

121.4
56.3
65.1
92.9
18.2
5.7
17.0
17.2
8.1
26.6
13.7
14.8

118.8
54.3
64.4
91.3
16.9
5.8
17.1
16.2
8.0
27.3
12.9
14.6

118.8
54.2
64.6
91.5
15.4
5.9
18.0
16.0
8.3
28.0
12.9
14.3

121.9
57.3
64.6
94.1
16.7
6.1
18.9
15.6
7.9
28.9
13.5
14.3

121.7
56.7
65.0
93.3
16.5
6.0
18.1
15.4
7.8
29.5
14.0
14.4

121.9
56.2
65.7
92.8
15.3
6.1
18.4
15.0
7.9
30.1
14.5
14.6

-1.1

121.3
25.1
4.9
34.0
20.2
8.2
28.9
7.8
21.2

146.6
70.5
76.1
113.3
24.0
4.0
24.5
20.5
10.6
29.8
14.7
18.6

-1.4
-2.1
3.4
-5.4
-0.7
2.1
0.3
4.2
-2.3
0

-1.1
-0.9
-1.2
-1.4
-2.8
-1.0
-1.1
-0.7
-1.7
-1.0
1.3
-1.3
0

-0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.9
-0.7
-0.2
-0.8
-0.6
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0

0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.5
0.3
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.6
0.0
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

102.70

100.20

91.60

87.00

82.10

82.90

81.10

81.20

83.30

83.10

83.30

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

92

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Belgium: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

10.239
308.9
191.7
2.05
78.1

10.446
334.4
176.4
1.92
80.1

10.840
354.7
173.4
1.71
76.8

11.239
382.1
153.0
1.71
78.6

11.593
409.2
137.2
1.64
77.9

11.911
439.2
116.2
1.82
87.3

12.204
474.6
105.4
1.82
88.9

12.473
516.3
98.4
1.80
88.8

12.718
563.4
92.3
1.81
88.7

12.936
614.4
85.4
1.78
87.8

13.126
668.8
79.4
1.75
87.1

0.6
1.4
-1.0
-1.8

0.7
1.4
-2.3
-0.5

0.5
1.5
-2.6
1.1

0.4
1.7
-1.4
-0.2

34.0
11.0

39.5
11.8

47.8
13.5

60.3
15.8

67.7
16.5

71.0
16.2

74.9
15.8

77.4
15.0

81.0
14.4

85.5
13.9

89.5
13.4

3.5

3.5

1.0

0.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
47.7
47.1

82.3
99.1
110.1
43.8
58.4

89.3
82.3
121.2
47.8
63.3

80.2
79.4
110.7
44.9
58.2

74.4
70.0
98.6
38.4
55.9

68.5
64.7
90.3
34.6
52.2

64.1
57.7
85.1
32.8
50.0

60.8
53.3
80.8
32.1
48.2

58.1
48.6
74.7
31.5
47.1

54.4
44.9
70.6
31.1
46.0

52.2
41.1
65.8
30.6
45.2

-1.1
-1.9
1.9
0.0
3.0

-1.8
-1.6
-2.0
-2.2
-1.2

-1.5
-1.9
-1.5
-1.6
-1.1

-1.0
-1.7
-1.3
-0.3
-0.5

0.28
2.44
2.42
2.13
1.98
2.99

0.26
2.33
2.09
2.06
2.11
3.00

0.20
2.15
1.74
2.09
1.69
2.90

0.17
2.11
1.71
2.07
1.59
2.87

0.15
2.02
1.60
2.04
1.51
2.76

0.20
2.00
1.60
2.00
1.47
2.74

0.19
1.98
1.60
1.95
1.42
2.73

0.17
1.98
1.64
1.90
1.41
2.73

0.17
1.96
1.67
1.85
1.33
2.72

0.15
1.91
1.57
1.81
1.27
2.71

0.14
1.89
1.55
1.76
1.27
2.70

-3.5
-1.3
-3.2
-0.2
-1.6
-0.3

-2.8
-0.6
-0.8
-0.2
-1.1
-0.5

2.4
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1

-1.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1

1.3
0.0

2.3
0.0

5.1
4.2

8.2
5.5

13.7
10.1

15.4
10.9

16.2
11.3

16.2
11.2

15.9
11.4

17.7
11.9

18.5
12.4

82773
48157
12916
797
19091
1336
460
16
0
0
0
13891
5801
116
103
13
0
0
7975
1112
0
1785
4951
702
537
0
0

85709
47595
8199
1740
25143
2516
288
227
1
0
0
14651
5817
273
104
167
2
0
8561
1631
0
1667
5618
690
587
0
0

93764
47944
4190
406
33178
5882
312
1292
560
0
0
17015
5941
1933
117
912
904
0
9141
2309
0
1176
6451
426
1088
0
0

89940
37679
1883
488
35547
7129
519
4766
1930
0
0
20031
4596
3971
165
1966
1840
0
11464
2634
0
245
9326
572
1320
0
0

90551
33094
1883
611
31866
7807
539
12075
2654
22
0
23556
4037
7378
177
4772
2429
0
12141
3188
0
246
9397
617
1878
0
3

78958
4852
1883
1227
41545
8789
560
15220
4837
44
0
24844
590
10336
178
5864
4295
0
13918
3825
0
246
11453
439
1775
0
5

75446
0
1882
987
40229
8779
534
17582
5405
48
0
27061
0
12068
186
7068
4813
0
14993
4120
0
246
12896
365
1480
0
6

78778
0
0
819
44064
8769
533
18919
5620
53
0
28404
0
13025
187
7849
4989
0
15379
2888
0
0
13532
343
1498
0
6

87198
0
0
906
49330
9107
539
20369
6895
53
0
31069
0
14869
188
8581
6100
0
16200
2526
0
0
13619
360
2216
0
6

93230
0
0
988
48938
9548
548
24669
8466
72
0
34850
0
17863
190
10141
7522
10
16987
4486
0
0
14225
269
2487
0
6

95927
0
0
936
45429
8953
563
29690
10275
81
0
38790
0
21152
196
11728
9213
15
17638
4878
0
0
14879
205
2549
0
6

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

64.9

64.0

60.4

49.3

42.4

35.3

31.1

31.0

31.4

29.9

27.7

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

41.4
6.5
0.0
60.4
58.2
2.2

42.1
8.5
0.0
59.1
55.5
3.5

44.9
16.0
0.0
59.7
51.1
8.6

48.3
17.1
0.0
57.8
41.9
15.9

47.2
18.1
0.0
62.1
36.5
25.5

50.5
22.0
0.0
43.4
6.1
37.3

52.0
24.4
0.0
42.9
0.0
42.9

54.8
20.9
0.0
43.0
0.0
43.0

57.0
16.9
0.0
42.4
0.0
42.4

57.2
24.4
0.0
46.4
0.0
46.4

57.5
24.1
0.0
51.7
0.0
51.7

137.1
13.3
106.5
8.6
8.4
0.3

145.6
17.5
110.1
10.1
7.6
0.3

149.4
18.9
110.5
11.1
8.6
0.3

156.7
19.8
114.8
12.0
9.7
0.3

162.8
21.0
117.5
13.0
11.0
0.3

172.7
21.9
123.6
14.3
12.6
0.3

182.9
22.8
129.4
15.9
14.5
0.3

192.4
23.9
135.2
16.9
16.0
0.4

202.5
24.9
141.4
18.0
17.7
0.4

211.8
25.8
147.4
18.9
19.4
0.4

221.5
26.7
153.5
19.7
21.2
0.4

0.9
3.6
0.4
2.6
0.3
-0.8

0.9
1.0
0.6
1.6
2.4
0.9

1.2
0.9
1.0
2.1
2.8
0.9

1.0
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.9
0.9

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

66.3
51.0
7.7
7.6

60.9
43.8
8.1
8.9

49.9
35.0
6.3
8.6

56.4
39.6
7.5
9.3

63.7
44.6
9.0
10.0

71.4
49.7
10.4
11.3

80.0
55.2
12.1
12.7

84.7
58.4
12.8
13.5

89.7
61.8
13.6
14.3

93.0
63.9
14.2
14.8

96.3
66.1
14.8
15.4

-2.8
-3.7
-2.0
1.2

2.5
2.5
3.7
1.5

2.3
2.1
3.0
2.4

0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

9660
216
4690
2837
184
1530
2030

9926
279
4712
3250
186
1281
2180

10293
317
5199
2903
177
1546
1510

10312
329
4955
3008
188
1671
1610

9800
334
4134
3253
211
1695
1720

9695
335
3796
3388
235
1753
1880

9997
337
3822
3617
261
1753
2060

10246
344
3916
3688
269
1817
2140

10607
352
4026
3816
276
1914
2230

10873
359
4149
3868
278
1991
2280

11140
367
4292
3942
277
2029
2330

0.6
3.9
1.0
0.2
-0.4
0.1
-3.0
0.0

-0.5
0.5
-2.3
1.1
1.8
0.9
1.4
0.0

0.2
0.1
-0.8
1.1
2.2
0.3
1.8
0.0

0.5
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

1.3
0.0
-10.6
-6.5
5.7
16.0
-3.8
55.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.2
32.5
1.3
53.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
7.6
0.0
-4.1
2.7
-4.9
7.3
0.0
0.0

-0.3
-1.8
1.2
-3.6 -100.0
0.0
-7.7
0.0 -100.0
4.2
4.9
-0.3
-0.4
2.4
0.6
2.9
1.2
0.1
5.6
-0.1
0.3
25.0
3.8
2.7
16.8
7.4
3.3
0.0
8.2
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.3
1.4
1.8
-3.8 -100.0
0.0
14.3
5.0
2.8
4.2
0.5
0.3
18.0
4.0
2.6
10.4
7.1
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.9
2.1
0.8
3.3
2.6
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
-14.5
0.0 -100.0
3.8
3.2
0.7
3.8
-5.1
-2.8
5.6
-2.4
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.2
0.4

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

93

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Bulgaria: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

9868
4295
70
12
4699
792
230
562
0
0
0

10630
4178
60
384
4826
1182
373
776
0
0
33

10437
4942
46
0
3956
1493
435
955
59
12
33

11045
5214
46
0
4015
1771
403
1054
115
155
43

11030
4810
46
0
4042
2133
400
1383
120
182
48

11434
5025
46
0
4042
2321
394
1478
124
267
59

10647
3994
46
0
4042
2565
398
1512
231
377
47

10283
3890
46
0
3574
2774
402
1624
231
421
95

11398
1757
46
0
6474
3121
406
1843
328
454
90

12082
2175
46
0
6474
3388
410
1986
335
569
89

12922
2818
46
0
6474
3584
414
2151
336
592
91

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

8725
2258
4125
5396
-1271
2742
-397

9589
2553
5257
6457
-1201
2458
-652

7230
1700
4180
6071
-1891
2131
-726

7228
1213
3832
5729
-1897
3163
-883

7012
1202
3639
5445
-1806
3318
-960

6799
1116
3510
5188
-1679
3400
-967

6710
1364
3510
5020
-1511
3518
-1356

6910
1220
3534
4870
-1336
3930
-1363

6499
1050
3562
4731
-1169
3784
-1366

6225
1187
3547
4555
-1008
3518
-1386

6254
1421
3544
4388
-844
3424
-1373

-1.9
-2.8
0.1
1.2
4.1
-2.5
6.2

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

18707
6433
4252
2932
4699
-397
788

20077
6895
5047
2804
4826
-652
1157

17831
6887
4027
2241
3956
-726
1446

18136
6427
3741
3162
4015
-883
1674

17877
6012
3520
3317
4042
-960
1946

18050
6141
3375
3398
4042
-967
2061

17162
5358
3364
3515
4042
-1356
2239

16991
5110
3383
3925
3574
-1363
2363

17688
2807
3405
3779
6474
-1366
2589

18089
3361
3380
3512
6474
-1386
2748

18949
4240
3370
3418
6474
-1373
2821

34.4
22.7
15.7
25.1
4.2

34.3
25.1
14.0
24.0
5.8

38.6
22.6
12.6
22.2
8.1

35.4
20.6
17.4
22.1
9.2

33.6
19.7
18.6
22.6
10.9

34.0
18.7
18.8
22.4
11.4

31.2
19.6
20.5
23.5
13.0

30.1
19.9
23.1
21.0
13.9

15.9
19.2
21.4
36.6
14.6

18.6
18.7
19.4
35.8
15.2

22.4
17.8
18.0
34.2
14.9

40639
10533

43964
9116

46009
9220

50140
8340

51374
7953

52206
8001

58405
8278

60581
8656

62802
8435

66106
9036

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

5986
4928
171
884
3
0
0

6689
5817
174
697
2
0
0

7552
6611
218
719
4
0
0

7041
5899
25
1079
38
0
0

6692
5500
29
1121
42
0
0

6921
5682
31
1168
40
0
0

6410
4935
92
1330
53
0
0

6726
4726
39
1700
204
56
0

4292
2442
43
1460
291
56
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

12382
5479
0
324
6579

13822
6738
0
368
6717

11449
6205
13
304
4927

10360
5844
47
409
4060

10286
5560
214
430
4081

9850
5303
202
274
4071

9664
5135
209
258
4062

9055
4986
202
275
3592

Energy Branch Consumption

1062

1015

1002

880

832

827

831

Non-Energy Uses

1265

1069

443

619

785

799

810

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

8640

9814

8842

9387

9461

9552

3523
2681
842
2155
969
1993

3714
2839
875
2117
1126
2856

2541
1768
772
2246
1175
2880

2695
1842
853
2426
1309
2957

2774
1896
878
2435
1352
2901

879
3003
1238
2085
879
555
0

978
3665
1243
2211
939
777
0

470
3142
981
2330
963
956
0

486
3105
1188
2615
1000
993
0

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

679

1008

1336

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

62.7

43.5
24.6
2.5
8.3
1.4
1.2
5.7
3.9
15.3

66.4
40.6
25.8
48.5
27.9
1.8
8.2
1.2
1.1
8.2
4.6
13.3

61.2
35.8
25.4
45.9
31.2
0.8
3.8
1.0
0.8
8.3
3.1
12.2

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

54.50

57.70

53.20

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

0.6
0.6
1.4
-0.3
-4.1
0.0
-96.6 -100.0
-1.7
0.2
6.5
3.6
6.6
-0.8
5.5
3.8
0.0
7.4
0.0
31.8
0.0
3.9

-0.4
-1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
-0.1
0.9
6.8
7.6
-0.1

1.0
-1.7
0.0
0.0
2.4
1.7
0.2
1.8
1.9
2.3
3.3

-0.3
-3.4
-1.4
-1.1
-0.5
4.5
2.8

-0.4
1.3
-0.4
-0.8
-1.8
0.6
3.5

-0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.7
-2.9
-0.1
0.1

-0.5
0.7
-0.5
-2.7
-1.7
6.2
6.3

0.0
-1.3
-1.3
4.0
0.2
2.8
3.0

-0.4
-1.1
-0.5
0.6
0.0
3.5
1.4

0.5
-1.2
0.0
-0.1
2.4
0.1
1.2

71088
11601

1.2
-1.3

1.1
-1.5

1.3
0.4

1.0
1.7

4706
3014
44
1214
374
61
0

5534
3907
45
1042
478
62
0

2.4
3.0
2.5
-2.0
1.4
0.0
0.0

-1.2
-1.8
-18.1
4.5
27.1
0.0
0.0

-0.4
-1.1
12.0
1.7
2.5
0.0
0.0

-0.7
-1.2
-3.5
-1.2
11.6
0.0
0.0

11863
4847
191
336
6489

11728
4671
189
380
6487

11563
4504
178
396
6486

-0.8
1.3
0.0
-0.6
-2.9

-1.1
-1.1
31.9
3.5
-1.9

-0.6
-0.8
-0.2
-5.0
0.0

0.9
-0.7
-0.8
2.2
2.4

849

805

846

1048

-0.6

-1.8

0.0

1.2

812

811

797

807

-10.0

5.9

0.3

0.0

9676

9876

10205

10422

10680

0.2

0.7

0.2

0.5

2836
1957
878
2507
1371
2839

2868
1974
894
2543
1381
2884

2926
2014
912
2664
1341
2945

3031
2086
945
2809
1359
3006

3053
2093
960
2957
1381
3031

3120
2122
998
3077
1402
3081

-3.2
-4.1
-0.9
0.4
1.9
3.8

0.9
0.7
1.3
0.8
1.4
0.1

0.3
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.1

0.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.1
0.3

468
2899
1130
2684
1033
1249
0

433
2789
1304
2743
957
1327
0

398
2791
1198
2872
1093
1323
0

361
2818
1277
3021
1177
1222
0

347
2850
1314
3240
1221
1232
0

328
2836
1214
3448
1332
1263
1

312
2839
1267
3663
1385
1214
1

-6.1
0.5
-2.3
1.1
0.9
5.6
0.0

0.0
-0.8
1.4
1.4
0.7
2.7
0.0

-1.6
-0.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
13.0

-1.2
0.1
0.3
1.2
1.2
-0.4
8.4

1598

1871

1986

2137

2195

2427

2573

2621

7.0

3.4

1.3

1.0

57.3
33.3
24.0
43.6
28.5
0.8
4.1
1.0
0.8
8.4
3.1
10.6

55.0
31.8
23.1
41.2
26.9
0.7
4.0
1.0
0.8
7.8
3.7
10.1

55.3
32.5
22.8
41.6
27.4
0.7
4.3
0.9
0.7
7.6
3.7
10.0

52.1
29.7
22.4
38.5
24.6
0.7
4.0
0.7
0.7
7.7
3.8
9.8

52.5
29.7
22.7
38.5
24.5
0.7
4.0
0.7
0.7
7.9
4.1
9.8

42.3
19.8
22.5
28.6
14.4
0.7
4.1
0.7
0.6
8.1
4.3
9.4

43.3
21.0
22.3
29.5
15.7
0.7
3.8
0.6
0.6
8.1
4.3
9.5

37.8
15.6
22.2
24.5
10.7
0.6
3.7
0.6
0.6
8.2
3.9
9.5

-0.2

0.5
2.4
-10.3
-7.6
-3.1
-3.9
3.9
-2.3
-2.2
0

-1.1
-1.2
-0.9
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
0.6
0.2
-0.5
-0.6
1.7
-1.9
0

-0.5
-0.7
-0.3
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
0.1
-3.2
-1.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.3
0

-1.6
-3.2
0.0
-2.2
-4.1
-0.3
-0.4
-1.3
-0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0

49.80

47.80

48.10

45.30

45.60

36.80

37.70

32.90

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

Source: PRIMES

94

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Bulgaria: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

8.191
24.2
774.0
2.33
46.5

7.761
31.6
636.2
2.41
47.5

7.564
36.1
494.6
2.57
40.3

7.362
40.9
443.5
2.40
39.6

7.121
45.1
396.3
2.31
38.9

6.856
48.0
376.4
2.30
37.3

6.611
51.5
333.1
2.24
38.7

6.406
55.4
306.8
2.27
40.2

6.235
59.2
298.9
1.61
36.3

6.070
62.3
290.2
1.63
34.0

5.899
64.9
291.9
1.29
32.6

-0.8
4.1
-4.4
1.0

-0.6
2.3
-2.2
-1.1

-0.7
1.3
-1.7
-0.3

-0.6
1.2
-0.7
-2.7

5.3
21.7

7.6
24.0

9.2
25.5

11.8
28.9

13.7
30.3

15.0
31.3

16.1
31.2

16.8
30.3

18.6
31.4

19.5
31.3

20.8
32.1

5.7

4.1

1.6

1.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
26.2
46.9

78.7
71.6
89.1
26.8
55.8

40.5
67.1
83.8
23.8
49.5

38.3
63.9
81.7
23.1
47.9

36.2
57.8
75.8
20.8
46.2

35.0
55.6
71.7
19.1
43.2

32.8
51.9
67.1
18.4
41.5

31.3
49.8
60.4
17.9
40.6

30.2
48.3
57.3
17.6
39.7

28.9
47.5
55.2
17.5
38.7

28.2
47.4
53.9
17.4
38.3

-8.6
-3.9
-1.8
-0.9
0.5

-1.1
-1.5
-1.0
-1.3
-0.7

-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.2
-1.1

-0.8
-0.5
-1.1
-0.3
-0.4

0.46
1.91
2.35
0.63
1.24
2.84

0.49
1.91
2.22
0.58
0.97
2.87

0.51
1.57
1.48
0.44
0.69
2.88

0.44
1.53
1.50
0.43
0.60
2.85

0.40
1.43
1.44
0.42
0.57
2.69

0.41
1.42
1.50
0.35
0.54
2.69

0.33
1.36
1.40
0.29
0.50
2.68

0.32
1.35
1.38
0.27
0.49
2.68

0.18
1.32
1.35
0.23
0.46
2.68

0.18
1.26
1.23
0.21
0.45
2.67

0.12
1.23
1.20
0.18
0.43
2.68

1.2
-1.9
-4.5
-3.5
-5.7
0.1

-2.4
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6
-1.9
-0.7

-2.0
-0.5
-0.3
-3.6
-1.3
0.0

-5.0
-0.5
-0.8
-2.3
-0.7
0.0

6.8
0.1

9.1
0.2

13.2
0.8

15.6
2.5

18.2
10.1

19.2
10.1

20.3
10.6

20.4
10.5

21.9
10.2

22.7
10.4

22.1
10.0

40646
18178
16941
661
2178
15
2673
0
0
0
0
9723
3473
977
977
0
0
0
5273
1129
0
4426
578
235
35
0
0

43972
18653
18458
606
1896
17
4337
5
0
0
0
9899
2678
1977
1967
10
0
0
5244
1177
0
4375
600
234
35
0
0

46017
15249
22606
393
1967
49
5057
681
15
0
0
8665
1885
2607
2207
375
25
0
4174
970
0
3285
615
262
11
0
0

50140
15310
22209
101
4913
172
4686
1337
1414
0
0
10234
1910
4194
2284
850
1060
0
4130
1093
0
2711
1105
264
50
0
0

51374
15310
21343
101
6868
187
4657
1395
1515
0
0
11232
1923
4323
2284
923
1116
0
4986
1510
0
2891
1803
237
55
0
0

52206
15310
22026
81
6892
179
4585
1440
1693
0
0
11922
1923
4412
2284
923
1205
0
5587
2020
0
2866
2346
320
55
0
0

58405
15310
24062
473
8611
260
4631
2684
2375
0
0
13355
1923
5333
2284
1515
1534
0
6099
2368
0
3518
2283
239
59
0
0

60581
15450
23239
218
10789
1025
4680
2684
2430
65
0
12888
1939
5360
2284
1515
1561
0
5588
2503
0
2943
2384
192
62
0
7

62802
28197
12612
101
9285
1499
4723
3813
2506
65
0
14946
3539
6227
2284
2346
1598
0
5180
2553
0
2563
2308
195
106
0
7

66106
28197
15771
178
7800
1948
4762
3892
3488
70
0
15645
3539
6868
2284
2346
2238
0
5238
2769
104
2631
2292
158
149
0
8

71088
28197
21005
204
6737
2520
4810
3908
3634
72
0
16385
3539
6972
2284
2354
2334
0
5874
2892
1235
3762
1773
158
174
0
8

1.1
1.3
0.0
0.0
-0.6
1.2
-12.7
16.7
13.3
2.3
14.3
3.3
-0.8
-0.1
7.4
6.8
58.8
4.6
-93.4 -100.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
1.7
0.2
0.0
5.2
2.1
0.3
0.0
9.4
5.1
46.2
3.2
0.0
0.0
1.8
2.0
4.5
4.6
0.0
0.0
-1.3
2.0
11.4
2.4
-1.0
0.1
17.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

1.0
3.1
-0.7
-4.1
-1.2
12.0
0.2
1.9
2.2
0.0
0.0
1.0
3.1
1.3
0.0
2.2
2.1
0.0
-0.2
1.0
0.0
0.3
-1.3
-2.1
5.6
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

43.0

46.0

54.8

52.3

49.3

47.1

47.2

50.6

45.6

45.6

45.4

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

28.4
7.8
0.0
51.3
44.7
6.6

27.0
6.1
0.0
52.3
42.4
9.9

28.5
8.0
0.0
45.7
33.1
12.6

33.5
12.1
0.0
45.7
30.5
15.2

36.6
17.0
0.0
44.9
29.8
15.1

36.3
19.3
0.0
44.5
29.3
15.1

44.8
22.9
0.0
43.2
26.2
17.0

45.2
24.5
0.0
43.5
25.5
18.0

47.2
23.4
0.0
65.0
44.9
20.1

47.1
24.1
1.7
64.1
42.7
21.4

47.5
23.7
18.4
60.7
39.7
21.0

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

47.7
14.6
27.5
3.9
1.7
0.0

56.0
13.7
35.8
2.8
3.6
0.0

65.5
10.6
47.9
3.0
3.9
0.0

68.3
10.9
49.1
3.4
4.8
0.0

71.0
11.2
50.0
3.8
6.0
0.0

73.8
11.5
50.9
4.1
7.2
0.0

76.8
11.9
51.8
4.4
8.7
0.0

79.4
12.2
52.9
4.5
9.8
0.0

82.0
12.5
53.7
4.7
11.1
0.0

83.7
12.6
54.0
4.8
12.3
0.0

85.5
12.7
54.1
4.9
13.7
0.0

3.2
-3.1
5.7
-2.5
8.9
-2.4

0.8
0.6
0.4
2.4
4.5
0.6

0.8
0.6
0.4
1.4
3.8
0.4

0.5
0.4
0.2
0.6
2.3
0.2

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

12.3
6.4
5.5
0.3

20.3
14.4
5.2
0.8

23.7
19.4
3.1
1.2

25.4
20.6
3.5
1.4

27.3
21.8
4.0
1.5

29.3
23.1
4.6
1.6

31.5
24.5
5.2
1.8

33.4
26.0
5.5
1.9

35.3
27.5
5.8
2.0

36.5
28.4
6.0
2.1

37.7
29.3
6.2
2.1

6.8
11.7
-5.7
14.3

1.4
1.1
2.7
2.4

1.5
1.2
2.7
1.6

0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

1822
142
987
513
78
101
20

2632
131
1156
1075
65
201
40

2730
99
1270
1129
46
182
60

2792
99
1246
1171
49
220
70

2738
101
1119
1207
53
250
70

2678
99
1023
1213
57
279
80

2722
99
993
1248
61
313
80

2778
99
982
1296
61
331
90

2843
100
972
1341
60
362
90

2875
98
961
1356
58
394
90

2929
98
953
1388
55
426
90

4.1
-3.6
2.6
8.2
-5.2
6.1
13.8
0.0

0.0
0.2
-1.3
0.7
1.6
3.2
2.1
0.0

-0.1
-0.1
-1.2
0.3
1.3
2.3
1.3
0.0

0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
-0.5
1.6
0.6
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

1.2
-1.7
2.9
-5.1
-1.0
12.6
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.1
-5.9
10.3
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-1.5
0.0
-2.9
0.6
1.1
-11.1
0.0
0.0

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

95

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Croatia: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

3590
0
1355
1355
0
880
505
375
0
0
0

3808
0
1037
1865
0
906
545
360
1
0
0

4216
0
761
2215
0
1239
716
499
12
5
7

3021
0
634
995
0
1392
588
666
67
57
13

2248
0
552
0
0
1696
599
849
112
122
15

2265
0
482
0
0
1783
617
847
122
185
12

2385
0
428
0
0
1957
675
934
125
213
10

2463
0
380
0
0
2083
690
1031
125
226
10

2583
0
332
0
0
2251
725
1090
170
255
11

2657
0
284
0
0
2374
742
1135
189
296
12

2595
0
234
0
0
2361
752
1113
197
286
12

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

4176
478
2448
3987
-1539
905
344

5262
624
3637
4374
-737
562
440

4481
699
3000
3662
-662
475
410

5693
505
2914
3526
-613
1969
419

6363
483
2800
3416
-615
2718
486

6258
323
2775
3370
-595
2799
478

6220
262
2856
3402
-546
2692
532

6217
345
2873
3377
-504
2566
573

6225
343
2904
3362
-458
2643
486

6302
245
2934
3347
-413
2877
385

6450
229
2968
3332
-364
2953
439

0.7
3.9
2.1
-0.8
-8.1
-6.2
1.8

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

7847
431
3983
2209
0
344
880

8961
683
4556
2377
0
440
906

8575
683
3713
2632
0
410
1137

8707
505
3541
2964
0
419
1278

8604
483
3345
2718
0
486
1571

8516
323
3250
2799
0
478
1667

8598
262
3277
2692
0
532
1835

8672
345
3246
2565
0
573
1943

8800
343
3229
2643
0
486
2101

8952
245
3210
2876
0
385
2235

9037
229
3195
2953
0
439
2221

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

5.5
50.8
28.2
0.0
11.2

7.6
50.8
26.5
0.0
10.1

8.0
43.3
30.7
0.0
13.3

5.8
40.7
34.0
0.0
14.7

5.6
38.9
31.6
0.0
18.3

3.8
38.2
32.9
0.0
19.6

3.0
38.1
31.3
0.0
21.3

4.0
37.4
29.6
0.0
22.4

3.9
36.7
30.0
0.0
23.9

2.7
35.9
32.1
0.0
25.0

2.5
35.4
32.7
0.0
24.6

10588
2476

12352
2639

13997
2538

14253
2391

14490
2469

14171
2438

14783
2589

15426
2747

17474
2886

20116
3026

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

1249
357
395
497
0
0
0

1481
537
450
490
4
0
0

1271
532
121
611
7
0
0

1259
364
37
813
44
0
0

1127
343
32
724
28
0
0

1026
197
31
705
93
0
0

1015
134
31
687
163
0
0

983
215
29
554
185
0
0

1085
213
48
628
196
0
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

5440
5345
0
83
12

5375
5259
0
104
13

4419
4314
3
97
4

4198
4057
43
98
0

4163
3865
180
118
0

4031
3747
167
115
1

4006
3720
166
119
1

3943
3648
165
128
1

Energy Branch Consumption

831

832

744

612

512

498

491

Non-Energy Uses

682

715

596

612

594

599

589

5345

6335

6333

6715

6811

6778

1392
847
545
1664
758
1531

1580
911
668
1926
921
1908

1377
752
624
1892
1006
2058

1495
790
705
2000
1032
2188

1562
815
747
1989
1091
2169

74
2665
1009
1009
213
375
0

146
3093
1243
1240
257
356
0

150
2888
1288
1364
245
398
0

141
2891
1425
1412
276
570
0

Annual % Change

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.6
-6.1
-91.0 -100.0
-5.6
-3.2
5.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
3.5
3.2
3.6
-1.8
2.9
5.4
0.0
25.0
0.0
37.1
0.0
8.1

0.6
0.0
-2.5
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.1
5.7
-4.1

0.4
0.0
-3.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.9
2.3
1.5
1.1

3.6
-3.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
19.0
1.7

-0.2
-5.9
0.2
0.0
-1.2
-0.1
0.9

0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.1
-2.0
0.5
-1.0

0.9
4.7
-0.7
1.8
0.0
1.8
2.6

0.0
-3.4
-1.0
0.3
0.0
1.7
3.3

0.0
-5.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.9
1.6

0.2
-0.7
-0.1
0.5
0.0
-1.0
1.0

20504
3158

2.8
0.2

0.3
-0.3

0.2
0.5

1.6
1.0

1303
116
55
868
265
0
0

1317
100
55
916
246
0
0

0.2
4.1
-11.1
2.1
38.4
0.0
0.0

-1.2
-4.3
-12.5
1.7
15.1
0.0
0.0

-1.0
-9.0
-0.2
-0.5
19.4
0.0
0.0

1.3
-1.4
2.9
1.4
2.1
0.0
0.0

3875
3588
158
127
1

3789
3526
149
113
1

3744
3465
152
125
2

-2.1
-2.1
0.0
1.6
-9.8

-0.6
-1.1
51.3
2.0
-21.8

-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
0.0
11.4

-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
1.7

484

479

473

464

-1.1

-3.7

-0.4

-0.3

584

578

571

564

-1.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

6867

7013

7104

7230

7315

1.7

0.7

0.1

0.3

1600
827
773
1987
1084
2107

1599
843
757
1977
1145
2146

1650
872
778
2004
1187
2171

1689
905
784
2002
1224
2188

1761
987
774
2019
1264
2186

1790
1015
775
2018
1296
2212

-0.1
-1.2
1.4
1.3
2.9
3.0

1.3
0.8
1.8
0.5
0.8
0.5

0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.5
-0.1

0.6
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.2

138
2721
1346
1498
281
827
0

126
2639
1454
1465
288
806
1

128
2665
1392
1559
287
836
1

130
2642
1409
1642
287
901
1

130
2636
1421
1718
281
916
2

129
2624
1435
1832
285
922
3

129
2616
1467
1908
285
906
3

7.3
0.8
2.5
3.1
1.4
0.6
0.0

-0.9
-0.6
0.4
0.9
1.4
7.6
51.2

-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
12.1

0.0
-0.1
0.3
1.0
0.0
0.4
5.3

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

815

847

942

1263

1544

1591

1703

1824

1958

2077

2057

1.5

5.1

1.0

1.0

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

25.7

27.9
10.7
17.1
18.5
4.3
1.8
2.8
2.1
1.4
6.1
2.5
6.8

26.8
10.2
16.6
18.0
3.7
1.5
3.0
2.0
1.4
6.4
2.7
6.1

24.9
9.2
15.8
16.8
3.5
1.3
2.9
1.9
1.3
5.9
2.9
5.2

24.3
8.5
15.8
16.1
2.8
1.2
2.9
2.0
1.3
5.7
2.9
5.3

23.4
7.9
15.5
15.7
2.5
1.2
2.9
2.0
1.2
5.8
2.4
5.4

23.2
8.0
15.2
15.7
2.5
1.2
2.8
2.1
1.2
5.9
2.3
5.2

23.3
8.2
15.1
15.8
2.7
1.2
2.8
2.0
1.2
6.0
2.3
5.2

21.7
6.7
15.0
15.9
2.8
1.1
2.8
2.0
1.2
6.0
0.5
5.3

21.7
6.7
15.0
16.0
2.9
1.1
2.8
2.0
1.2
6.0
0.4
5.3

0.8

16.9
4.1
2.0
2.9
1.9
1.5
4.5
2.6
6.2

30.1
12.6
17.6
20.2
5.1
2.0
3.5
2.4
1.5
5.7
3.1
6.9

0.9
0.3
-1.1
-0.2
1.0
-0.6
3.1
-0.3
1.0
0

-1.1
-1.6
-0.8
-1.0
-2.1
-3.2
0.2
-0.9
-0.4
-0.4
1.2
-2.6
0

-0.6
-1.5
-0.1
-0.7
-3.2
-0.6
-0.1
0.5
-1.0
-0.1
-1.8
0.3
0

-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.1
0.8
-0.6
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-8.6
-0.1
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

80.80

94.80

87.60

84.20

78.40

76.40

73.70

72.80

73.30

68.20

68.20

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

96

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Croatia: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

4.506
35.3
222.5
2.16
53.1

4.466
43.9
204.3
2.25
58.6

4.426
45.9
186.8
2.16
52.2

4.554
51.0
170.7
2.07
65.3

4.632
56.6
152.0
1.96
73.9

4.659
62.2
136.9
1.89
73.4

4.658
67.6
127.2
1.82
72.3

4.646
73.4
118.1
1.81
71.6

4.629
77.7
113.2
1.80
70.7

4.609
81.8
109.4
1.78
70.3

4.573
85.4
105.8
1.77
71.3

-0.2
2.7
-1.7
0.0

0.5
2.1
-2.0
-1.0

0.1
1.8
-1.8
-0.7

-0.1
1.2
-0.9
-0.1

4.2
11.9

6.1
14.0

9.0
19.6

11.3
22.1

12.6
22.2

13.7
22.0

14.7
21.8

15.5
21.1

16.2
20.8

16.9
20.7

17.3
20.2

7.9

3.4

1.6

0.8

0.0
112.1
0.0
47.4
42.1

0.0
102.7
0.0
41.7
43.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
41.6
52.5

98.2
92.5
89.6
39.6
53.4

91.8
80.9
86.3
35.6
49.5

86.3
71.8
77.5
31.8
44.9

83.5
64.5
75.5
29.4
43.9

81.5
59.0
73.0
27.8
43.9

80.1
54.9
71.8
26.7
42.2

81.7
52.0
71.5
25.9
40.7

81.2
49.3
71.4
25.2
40.4

0.0
-1.1
0.0
-1.3
2.2

-0.8
-2.1
-1.5
-1.5
-0.6

-0.9
-2.2
-1.3
-1.9
-1.2

-0.1
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.4

0.31
2.01
2.07
1.15
1.94
2.94

0.32
2.06
2.22
1.25
1.59
2.97

0.25
1.97
2.06
1.12
1.38
2.97

0.21
1.90
2.00
1.02
1.31
2.92

0.19
1.77
1.85
0.97
1.22
2.72

0.16
1.77
1.82
1.03
1.21
2.72

0.13
1.74
1.79
1.03
1.06
2.72

0.13
1.70
1.69
1.02
1.00
2.72

0.13
1.68
1.66
1.00
0.96
2.72

0.12
1.65
1.59
0.99
0.94
2.73

0.12
1.64
1.58
0.98
0.91
2.72

-2.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-3.3
0.1

-2.6
-1.1
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
-0.9

-3.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.6
-1.4
0.0

-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
0.0

14.5
0.4

12.8
0.4

14.2
0.4

18.1
1.7

21.9
10.3

22.6
10.4

23.9
10.6

25.0
10.8

26.5
10.9

27.6
11.0

27.0
11.3

10590
0
1551
1594
1571
0
5874
0
0
0
0
3310
0
1786
1786
0
0
0
1524
558
0
313
781
387
44
0
0

12354
0
2328
1855
1814
14
6333
10
0
0
0
3587
0
1842
1836
6
0
0
1745
515
0
321
986
394
44
0
0

13999
0
2385
560
2553
33
8329
139
0
0
0
3850
0
1989
1900
89
0
0
1861
486
0
325
1097
396
43
0
0

14253
0
1288
192
4941
188
6842
785
17
0
0
4774
0
2457
2047
394
16
0
2317
515
0
316
1553
400
48
0
0

14490
0
1235
185
4645
126
6965
1299
35
0
0
5198
0
2714
2047
640
27
0
2485
561
0
204
1841
391
48
0
0

14171
0
695
181
4020
409
7179
1417
269
0
0
5442
0
2913
2036
697
180
0
2529
507
0
204
1906
361
59
0
0

14783
0
468
182
3863
695
7853
1451
272
0
0
5931
0
3099
2204
713
182
0
2831
503
0
190
2231
361
50
0
0

15426
0
751
184
3945
795
8022
1456
272
0
0
6373
0
3132
2235
715
182
0
3241
640
0
190
2966
45
41
0
0

17474
0
729
296
4558
842
8430
1974
646
0
0
6877
0
3685
2312
948
426
0
3192
573
0
190
2900
62
41
0
0

20116
0
403
337
6342
1289
8625
2196
923
0
0
7376
0
3978
2331
1040
606
0
3398
979
0
190
2878
56
274
0
0

20504
0
351
336
6706
1153
8744
2291
923
0
0
7646
0
4031
2346
1079
606
0
3615
1060
0
102
3172
66
274
0
0

2.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
4.4
-6.4
-9.9
-10.5
5.0
6.2
0.0
14.4
3.6
-1.8
0.0
25.0
0.0
76.8
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
3.2
0.6
0.7
0.0
21.8
0.0
70.3
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.9
-1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
-4.6
3.5
5.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.0
-9.2
-0.2
-1.8
18.6
1.2
1.1
22.8
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.7
1.1
20.9
0.0
1.3
-1.1
0.0
-0.7
1.9
-0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0

1.6
0.0
-1.4
3.1
2.8
2.6
0.5
2.3
6.3
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.3
2.1
6.2
0.0
1.2
3.8
0.0
-3.0
1.8
-8.1
8.9
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

35.0

37.8

40.1

33.3

31.2

29.0

27.8

27.0

28.4

30.5

30.0

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

32.5
17.0
0.0
55.5
0.0
55.5

34.9
16.8
0.0
51.5
0.0
51.5

37.4
14.3
0.0
60.7
0.0
60.7

45.1
18.5
0.0
54.9
0.0
54.9

47.2
19.1
0.0
58.1
0.0
58.1

44.5
17.0
0.0
65.4
0.0
65.4

44.1
16.2
0.0
69.5
0.0
69.5

49.6
23.8
0.0
68.4
0.0
68.4

50.9
20.2
0.0
68.1
0.0
68.1

55.2
24.2
0.0
64.8
0.0
64.8

55.8
22.5
0.0
63.9
0.0
63.9

28.0
3.3
20.2
1.8
2.8
0.0

32.9
3.4
24.2
1.8
3.4
0.0

34.9
3.4
26.0
2.3
3.1
0.0

38.2
3.7
28.1
2.5
3.9
0.0

41.7
4.0
30.2
2.7
4.8
0.0

44.9
4.2
32.1
2.8
5.7
0.0

48.3
4.5
34.1
3.0
6.7
0.0

50.6
4.6
35.1
3.1
7.8
0.0

53.1
4.7
36.0
3.2
9.1
0.0

54.8
4.8
36.3
3.3
10.4
0.0

56.6
4.9
36.4
3.4
11.8
0.1

2.2
0.1
2.6
2.7
1.3
210.3

1.8
1.8
1.5
1.6
4.3
1.6

1.5
1.0
1.2
1.2
3.5
1.4

0.8
0.4
0.3
0.6
2.9
0.6

4.7
2.9
1.8
0.1

12.3
9.3
2.8
0.1

11.5
8.8
2.6
0.1

12.6
9.6
2.8
0.2

13.7
10.5
3.0
0.2

15.0
11.5
3.3
0.2

16.4
12.6
3.6
0.2

17.3
13.4
3.7
0.2

18.2
14.1
3.8
0.2

18.8
14.7
3.9
0.2

19.4
15.2
3.9
0.2

9.4
11.9
3.9
8.5

1.7
1.8
1.4
1.7

1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8

0.8
0.9
0.4
0.8

1525
54
1182
147
41
74
280

1901
54
1212
461
47
96
330

2056
54
1270
537
49
108
380

2184
57
1307
606
44
129
410

2165
60
1259
610
44
148
440

2103
61
1184
602
44
165
470

2141
61
1155
646
45
183
510

2167
60
1130
682
45
196
530

2184
61
1122
690
45
213
550

2182
60
1105
685
44
231
560

2208
60
1093
705
43
251
570

3.0
0.0
0.7
13.9
1.9
3.9
2.8
0.0

0.5
1.2
-0.1
1.3
-1.2
3.2
1.6
0.0

-0.1
0.1
-0.9
0.6
0.3
2.2
1.5
0.0

0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
1.6
0.5
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

97

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Cyprus: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

44
0
0
0
0
44
0
9
0
35
0

51
0
0
0
0
51
0
10
0
41
0

85
0
1
0
0
84
0
19
3
61
1

146
0
1
0
0
146
0
35
27
82
2

1071
0
1
864
0
206
0
44
53
106
3

2939
0
1
2646
0
292
0
57
63
167
5

4993
0
1
4626
0
366
0
63
73
224
7

5834
0
1
5412
0
421
0
63
87
264
6

6911
0
1
6474
0
436
0
64
87
279
5

7430
0
1
6972
0
456
0
61
87
304
4

7338
0
1
6880
0
457
0
56
87
311
4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

2545
33
2511
1153
1358
0
0

2822
43
2773
0
2773
0
0

2924
11
2890
0
2890
0
0

2904
15
2832
-1
2833
1
0

1759
13
1679
-1
1680
-48
0

-145
11
1613
-1
1614
-1883
0

-2102
11
1656
-1
1657
-3893
0

-2943
10
1667
-1
1668
-4761
0

-3922
11
1711
-1
1711
-5809
0

-4374
10
1726
-1
1727
-6293
0

-4240
10
1748
-1
1749
-6199
0

1.4
-10.4
1.4
-100.0
7.8
0.0
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

2393
32
2315
0
0
0
46

2518
36
2426
0
0
0
57

2717
17
2592
0
0
0
108

2834
15
2617
0
0
0
201

2593
13
1447
813
0
0
320

2545
11
1373
756
0
0
406

2625
11
1401
723
0
0
491

2609
10
1401
636
0
0
561

2686
11
1426
647
0
0
601

2728
10
1421
658
0
0
639

2740
10
1418
653
0
0
658

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

1.4
96.7
0.0
0.0
1.9

1.4
96.3
0.0
0.0
2.3

0.6
95.4
0.0
0.0
4.0

0.5
92.4
0.0
0.0
7.1

0.5
55.8
31.3
0.0
12.4

0.4
53.9
29.7
0.0
15.9

0.4
53.4
27.5
0.0
18.7

0.4
53.7
24.4
0.0
21.5

0.4
53.1
24.1
0.0
22.4

0.4
52.1
24.1
0.0
23.4

0.4
51.8
23.8
0.0
24.0

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

3369
357

4376
414

5344
460

5655
493

6482
416

6679
404

7162
415

7177
401

7570
419

8029
439

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

881
0
881
0
0
0
0

1077
0
1077
0
0
0
0

1176
0
1176
0
0
0
0

1114
0
1089
0
25
0
0

863
0
30
805
28
0
0

781
0
5
748
28
0
0

754
0
6
715
33
0
0

671
0
0
629
42
0
0

695
0
0
639
56
0
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

1171
1171
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

15
0
15
0
0

20
0
19
0
0

73
0
71
0
2

69
0
65
0
4

67
0
62
0
4

66
0
61
0
4

66
0
62
0
4

Energy Branch Consumption

54

22

21

23

13

11

10

10

Non-Energy Uses

84

70

83

84

82

81

85

90

96

1632

1816

1921

2043

2089

2098

2186

2200

2258

441
237
204
227
114
850

319
204
115
329
195
972

236
174
61
373
273
1039

262
202
60
377
311
1093

255
197
58
381
365
1089

253
195
58
381
387
1078

268
208
60
376
422
1119

283
218
65
363
419
1136

32
1300
0
258
0
42
0

36
1386
0
341
0
54
0

18
1375
0
420
0
107
0

15
1445
0
444
0
139
0

13
1335
8
521
0
210
2

11
1287
8
539
0
250
4

11
1311
8
580
0
272
4

Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

6.7
28.9
-13.2 -100.0
95.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.6
9.4
0.0
0.0
8.2
8.6
0.0
34.7
5.6
5.6
0.0
16.1

16.6
0.0
0.0
18.3
0.0
5.9
0.0
3.6
3.4
7.7
7.3

1.9
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
-0.6
0.9
1.7
-3.1

-5.0
1.7
-5.3
0.0
-5.3
0.0
0.0

0.0
-2.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
55.3
-4.0

3.6
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
2.4
-3.4

1.3
-6.4
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.0

-0.5
-2.5
-5.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.5

0.1
-2.0
-0.3
-1.2
0.0
-7.8
4.4

0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.5
0.0
0.0
1.5

8314
455

4.7
2.6

1.9
-1.0

1.0
0.0

0.7
0.5

708
0
0
650
58
0
0

709
0
0
641
68
0
0

2.9
0.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

-3.1
0.0
-30.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

66
0
61
0
4

69
0
64
0
5

-35.3
-100.0
0.0
0.0
-9.0

17.1
0.0
16.8
0.0
0.0

-0.9
0.0
-1.3
0.0
8.8

0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5

10

11

-9.0

-4.8

-2.0

0.1

102

108

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

1.2

2295

2313

1.6

0.8

0.5

0.3

304
235
69
361
424
1169

321
248
74
357
448
1169

325
248
77
348
461
1179

-6.1
-3.0
-11.3
5.1
9.1
2.0

0.8
1.2
-0.5
0.2
3.0
0.5

0.5
0.6
0.3
-0.1
1.5
0.3

1.0
0.9
1.2
-0.4
0.4
0.3

10
1311
7
582
0
285
5

11
1330
8
614
0
291
5

10
1318
8
651
0
301
5

10
1310
12
674
0
300
6

-5.7
0.6
0.0
5.0
0.0
9.8
7.2

-3.2
-0.3
0.0
2.2
0.0
7.0
0.0

-2.0
-0.2
0.2
1.1
5.0
2.6
9.0

-0.2
0.0
2.1
0.8
3.1
0.5
1.5

-1.3
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-15.5 -100.0
-1.2
-0.5
1.8
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

98

42

51

103

169

281

355

425

481

498

522

529

9.4

10.6

4.2

1.1

10.9

10.1
5.8
4.4
8.1
3.8
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
3.1
0.6
1.5

9.8
5.8
4.0
8.0
3.5
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.2
3.2
0.7
1.1

8.0
4.3
3.7
6.2
2.0
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.2
3.0
0.7
1.2

7.8
4.1
3.7
5.8
1.8
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
3.0
0.7
1.3

7.8
4.0
3.8
5.8
1.7
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
3.2
0.6
1.4

7.6
3.8
3.8
5.6
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
3.2
0.6
1.5

7.8
4.0
3.9
5.7
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
3.3
0.6
1.5

7.9
4.0
3.9
5.6
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.3
0.7
1.6

7.9
4.0
3.9
5.6
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.3
0.7
1.6

-0.7

7.1
2.8
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.0
2.6
0.8
3.0

10.3
6.0
4.3
7.9
3.5
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.1
2.9
0.9
1.4

1.3
2.9
-100.0
-7.5
6.7
0.0
1.8
-3.2
-6.9
0

-2.3
-2.9
-1.6
-2.7
-6.2
0.0
-0.4
-2.8
2.5
-0.1
1.5
-2.2
0

-0.3
-0.7
0.1
-0.6
-1.6
0.0
-1.5
-2.8
-1.9
0.4
-1.6
1.9
0

0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
0.0
0.1
-3.6
-1.6
0.3
0.6
0.7
0

151.10

142.20

140.30

136.50

111.20

107.60

107.80

105.70

108.40

109.50

109.20

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Cyprus: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

0.690
13.1
182.0
2.98
98.6

0.749
15.4
163.5
3.15
100.7

0.803
17.3
156.7
2.97
100.9

0.839
18.3
155.0
2.84
95.2

0.885
19.8
131.1
2.38
62.2

0.933
21.7
117.6
2.27
-5.2

0.973
24.1
108.8
2.20
-72.7

1.007
27.1
96.2
2.13
-101.8

1.036
30.3
88.7
2.10
-131.2

1.064
33.3
81.8
2.07
-143.2

1.090
36.2
75.7
2.05
-136.9

1.5
2.8
-1.5
0.0

1.0
1.3
-1.8
-2.2

1.0
2.0
-1.9
-0.8

0.6
2.0
-1.8
-0.4

1.1
8.3

2.0
12.8

2.8
16.0

3.4
18.9

3.4
17.4

3.8
17.7

4.3
17.6

4.5
16.5

4.8
15.8

5.0
15.0

5.2
14.4

9.8

2.2

2.1

1.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
49.2
191.9

70.3
121.8
146.5
52.4
174.4

55.4
118.5
174.3
56.9
195.0

59.7
113.0
187.1
53.4
190.0

56.2
104.9
200.8
46.9
184.0

52.9
95.3
192.9
40.4
176.4

51.5
84.1
188.0
36.8
170.3

49.0
71.8
165.4
34.7
165.4

48.0
63.9
149.8
33.3
161.5

47.1
57.2
143.5
32.2
158.2

44.9
51.3
135.9
31.4
155.4

-5.7
1.7
5.7
1.5
0.2

0.1
-1.2
1.4
-1.9
-0.6

-0.9
-2.2
-0.7
-2.4
-0.8

-0.7
-2.4
-1.6
-0.8
-0.5

0.85
2.56
3.16
1.00
0.00
3.01

0.80
2.45
3.10
1.38
0.44
3.00

0.71
2.24
2.72
1.17
0.55
2.95

0.62
2.21
2.71
1.00
0.68
2.94

0.31
2.00
2.41
0.86
0.53
2.80

0.27
1.92
2.12
0.74
0.45
2.81

0.24
1.87
1.97
0.66
0.38
2.82

0.21
1.86
1.87
0.59
0.33
2.82

0.20
1.84
1.78
0.50
0.29
2.82

0.19
1.79
1.71
0.42
0.26
2.83

0.18
1.77
1.66
0.35
0.25
2.82

-1.8
-1.3
-1.5
1.6
0.0
-0.2

-8.0
-1.1
-1.2
-3.0
-0.4
-0.5

-2.5
-0.7
-2.0
-2.7
-3.4
0.1

-1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-3.2
-2.0
0.0

2.9
0.0

3.1
0.0

5.8
2.0

9.2
2.6

15.2
10.1

19.3
10.1

22.5
10.0

25.5
10.0

25.7
10.0

26.4
9.9

26.7
10.3

3370
0
0
3370
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
988
0
0
0
0
0
0
988
0
0
0
0
988
0
0
0

4377
0
0
4376
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1126
0
1
0
0
1
0
1125
0
0
0
0
1125
0
0
0

5326
0
0
5288
0
0
0
31
6
1
0
1577
0
89
0
82
7
0
1488
1
0
0
0
1481
7
0
0

5655
0
0
5116
0
108
0
309
122
0
0
1941
0
224
0
145
79
0
1717
17
0
0
0
1703
14
0
0

6482
0
0
154
5265
125
0
611
327
0
0
2585
0
443
0
249
194
0
2142
15
0
0
721
1404
16
0
0

6679
0
0
26
5082
125
0
736
710
0
0
2943
0
674
0
291
383
0
2269
27
0
0
921
1332
16
0
0

7162
0
0
30
4876
152
0
850
1254
0
0
3209
0
987
0
329
658
0
2221
28
0
0
981
1218
22
0
0

7177
0
0
0
4313
193
0
1009
1661
0
0
3501
0
1232
0
405
828
0
2269
20
0
0
1137
1104
28
0
0

7570
0
0
1
4400
260
0
1009
1901
0
0
3358
0
1325
0
405
920
0
2033
14
0
0
1165
823
45
0
0

8029
0
0
0
4554
280
0
1009
2186
0
0
3251
0
1429
0
405
1024
0
1822
19
0
0
1323
447
52
0
0

8314
0
0
0
4655
337
0
1008
2314
0
0
3378
0
1480
0
405
1075
0
1898
33
0
0
1557
276
65
0
0

4.7
0.0
0.0
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

2.0
0.0
0.0
-29.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.7
48.2
-95.0
0.0
5.1
0.0
17.4
0.0
11.7
39.4
0.0
3.7
28.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
8.0
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

37.0

41.9

37.0

31.7

28.0

25.4

25.1

23.1

25.4

27.8

27.7

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

32.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

34.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

38.8
1.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.7

40.3
0.9
0.0
9.5
0.0
9.5

55.3
1.4
0.0
16.4
0.0
16.4

57.6
1.7
0.0
23.5
0.0
23.5

57.7
1.7
0.0
31.5
0.0
31.5

57.7
1.3
0.0
39.9
0.0
39.9

57.7
1.3
0.0
41.9
0.0
41.9

58.7
1.4
0.0
43.3
0.0
43.3

60.6
2.5
0.0
44.0
0.0
44.0

12.1
1.1
4.1
0.0
6.9
0.0

13.9
1.3
4.9
0.0
7.7
0.0

14.5
1.3
6.0
0.0
7.2
0.0

16.5
1.4
6.4
0.0
8.8
0.0

18.6
1.4
6.6
0.0
10.6
0.0

21.3
1.5
7.2
0.0
12.6
0.0

24.3
1.6
7.7
0.0
15.0
0.0

26.1
1.6
8.1
0.0
16.4
0.0

28.1
1.7
8.5
0.0
17.9
0.0

29.0
1.7
8.7
0.0
18.6
0.0

29.9
1.7
8.8
0.0
19.4
0.0

1.8
1.4
4.0
0.0
0.4
0.0

2.5
1.0
0.9
0.0
4.0
0.0

2.7
0.9
1.6
0.0
3.5
0.0

1.0
0.5
0.7
0.0
1.3
0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0

1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0

1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0

1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0

1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0

1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0

1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0

1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0

1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0

-1.8
-1.8
0.0
0.0

0.7
0.7
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0

0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

848
29
292
251
0
275
00

969
32
395
243
0
299
00

1039
35
514
212
0
277
00

1093
36
518
214
0
325
00

1089
37
474
214
0
364
00

1078
37
439
218
0
383
00

1119
37
433
224
0
425
00

1136
37
433
229
0
437
00

1169
38
443
235
0
453
00

1169
38
440
236
0
454
00

1179
38
439
239
0
462
00

2.1
2.0
5.8
-1.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0

0.5
0.4
-0.8
0.1
0.0
2.8
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
-0.9
0.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

1.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-15.2 -100.0
-0.8
-0.2
2.0
4.1
0.0
0.0
3.4
0.9
14.4
3.1
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
8.3
2.0
0.0
0.0
2.8
1.0
13.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
-0.8
6.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
2.3
-1.4
-7.2
3.3
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

99

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Czech Republic: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

30628
25049
389
169
3506
1515
151
1364
0
0
0

32868
23570
597
154
6405
2142
205
1933
2
2
0

31554
20730
308
167
7248
3102
240
2772
29
62
0

28043
16268
286
184
8008
3298
284
2704
39
270
0

27656
15287
276
197
8024
3872
291
3173
43
365
0

27636
15121
271
207
8024
4013
294
3168
50
501
0

28916
12882
274
200
11367
4193
296
3273
54
570
0

30184
11084
227
209
14354
4310
298
3274
56
682
0

31476
12153
148
196
14422
4558
321
3493
58
686
0

32240
12960
21
97
14490
4673
350
3539
59
724
0

32245
12757
0
0
14720
4768
356
3640
60
712
0

0.3
-1.9
-2.3
-0.1
7.5
7.4
4.7
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0

-1.3
-3.0
-1.1
1.7
1.0
2.2
2.0
1.4
4.1
19.5
0.0

0.4
0.5
-1.7
0.0
-0.1 -100.0
0.2 -100.0
3.5
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.5
2.4
0.5
4.6
1.1
-1.2
0.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

9495
-4721
7593
5656
1937
7482
-861

12795
-3270
9803
7855
1948
7535
-1086

11461
-2968
8988
7854
1134
6846
-1285

14571
-2626
9219
8016
1204
8125
-621

14725
-2807
9096
7920
1176
8258
-560

14339
-3432
8988
7815
1173
8578
-612

14363
-3422
9155
7915
1240
8337
-660

15096
-3103
9370
8072
1297
8828
-1023

14527
-4070
9562
8212
1350
9104
-1225

14825
-4338
9756
8373
1383
9390
-1259

15325
-4620
9782
8384
1398
9971
-1222

1.9
-4.5
1.7
3.3
-5.2
-0.9
4.1

2.5
-0.6
0.1
0.1
0.4
1.9
-8.0

-0.2
2.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.1
1.7

0.3
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.9
3.1

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

41270
21643
7965
7500
3506
-861
1518

45279
20248
10054
7703
6405
-1086
1955

44771
18474
9335
8019
7248
-1285
2981

42614
13642
9505
8308
8008
-621
3772

42381
12479
9372
8455
8024
-560
4612

41975
11689
9258
8785
8024
-612
4831

43279
9460
9429
8537
11367
-660
5147

45280
7981
9597
9037
14354
-1023
5334

46004
8083
9710
9300
14422
-1225
5714

47066
8622
9777
9487
14490
-1259
5948

47571
8137
9782
9971
14720
-1222
6183

0.8
-1.6
1.6
0.7
7.5
4.1
7.0

-0.5
-3.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
-8.0
4.5

0.2
-2.7
0.1
0.1
3.5
1.7
1.1

0.5
-0.8
0.2
0.8
1.3
3.1
0.9

52.4
19.3
18.2
8.5
3.7

44.7
22.2
17.0
14.1
4.3

41.3
20.9
17.9
16.2
6.7

32.0
22.3
19.5
18.8
8.9

29.4
22.1
19.9
18.9
10.9

27.8
22.1
20.9
19.1
11.5

21.9
21.8
19.7
26.3
11.9

17.6
21.2
20.0
31.7
11.8

17.6
21.1
20.2
31.4
12.4

18.3
20.8
20.2
30.8
12.6

17.1
20.6
21.0
30.9
13.0

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

72898
10600

81917
11631

85303
11114

76298
9210

75945
9019

78639
9591

81420
9263

89244
9811

96399
12054

101684
13620

106722
14483

1.6
0.5

-1.2
-2.1

0.7
0.3

1.4
2.3

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

15886
13945
311
1236
395
0
0

15702
14025
161
1292
224
0
0

15321
13595
78
1108
540
0
0

10649
9076
1
704
867
0
0

10100
8192
2
890
1015
0
0

10125
7908
2
1100
1114
0
0

8123
5666
5
1232
1219
0
0

6814
4297
7
1275
1234
0
0

7299
4618
9
1464
1208
0
0

7943
5212
10
1511
1210
0
0

8253
4891
11
1848
1504
0
0

-0.4
-0.3
-12.9
-1.1
3.2
0.0
0.0

-4.1
-4.9
-30.9
-2.2
6.5
0.0
0.0

-2.2
-3.6
10.3
3.3
1.8
0.0
0.0

0.1
-0.7
3.6
2.0
1.1
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

15076
6219
64
948
7846

19896
8276
3
922
10696

20111
8372
231
815
10693

20599
8490
305
930
10874

20783
8391
587
956
10849

20207
8284
584
538
10802

23722
8390
607
451
14274

26808
8503
618
388
17299

26802
8567
635
343
17257

27000
8608
628
315
17450

27064
8599
641
268
17555

2.9
3.0
13.8
-1.5
3.1

0.3
0.0
9.8
1.6
0.1

1.3
0.0
0.3
-7.2
2.8

0.7
0.1
0.3
-2.6
1.0

Energy Branch Consumption

1772

1807

1774

1485

1446

1474

1443

1470

1635

1759

1789

0.0

-2.0

0.0

1.1

Non-Energy Uses

2188

3004

2767

2901

2989

2951

2986

3060

3098

3132

3145

2.4

0.8

0.0

0.3

24709

25999

25618

26863

27137

27124

27404

28187

28796

29431

29864

0.4

0.6

0.1

0.4

10119
6380
3740
6023
4162
4405

9682
6749
2934
6216
3910
6191

8755
5741
3015
6619
3949
6295

9412
6154
3259
6852
3992
6607

9570
6090
3480
6879
3972
6715

9605
5970
3635
6885
3931
6703

10117
6249
3868
6698
3694
6895

10549
6445
4104
6866
3723
7050

10881
6579
4303
6945
3756
7213

11250
6701
4549
7031
3870
7280

11432
6686
4745
7125
3950
7357

-1.4
-1.1
-2.1
0.9
-0.5
3.6

0.9
0.6
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.6

0.6
0.3
1.1
-0.3
-0.7
0.3

0.6
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.3

5007
5386
6491
4246
2624
955
0

3640
6926
6741
4754
2478
1462
0

3081
6631
6688
4919
2249
2048
0

3302
6670
7199
5003
2434
2255
1

3075
6447
7125
5056
2528
2900
5

2664
6393
7436
5188
2284
3149
10

2664
6522
7202
5412
2268
3324
12

2561
6640
7701
5678
2110
3484
12

2417
6742
7745
5893
2141
3845
13

2296
6784
7978
6173
2162
4025
15

2182
6803
8099
6567
2226
3970
17

-4.7
2.1
0.3
1.5
-1.5
7.9
14.0

0.0
-0.3
0.6
0.3
1.2
3.5
90.4

-1.4
0.1
0.1
0.7
-1.1
1.4
9.9

-1.0
0.2
0.6
1.0
-0.1
0.9
1.9

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

1233

1666

2484

3079

3931

4079

4371

4542

5052

5278

5462

7.3

4.7

1.1

1.1

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

150.9

139.8
79.3
60.4
117.0
63.8
1.8
20.7
8.1
4.9
17.7
4.8
18.0

120.1
61.9
58.2
98.7
43.1
1.8
21.8
8.6
5.1
18.3
5.8
15.6

114.3
58.0
56.3
93.4
40.6
1.7
20.0
8.1
5.2
17.8
5.8
15.1

111.5
55.7
55.8
90.7
38.9
1.5
19.9
7.7
5.1
17.7
5.7
15.1

101.1
46.1
55.1
81.1
29.1
1.5
21.0
7.1
4.3
18.1
5.2
14.8

95.3
40.4
54.9
76.4
23.9
1.5
21.0
7.2
4.2
18.4
4.7
14.3

91.6
36.7
54.9
72.1
21.1
1.5
19.6
6.9
4.3
18.8
4.7
14.8

88.5
33.6
54.9
69.5
18.3
1.5
19.9
6.5
4.3
18.9
3.9
15.0

83.2
28.8
54.4
67.4
16.5
1.5
19.6
6.5
4.3
19.0
0.6
15.3

-0.8

125.4
66.8
2.6
28.4
8.3
6.8
12.6
5.6
19.9

148.7
87.3
61.4
124.1
66.2
2.3
24.8
7.9
5.0
18.1
5.3
19.3

-0.7
-0.5
-3.4
-3.1
-0.2
-3.2
3.5
-1.7
-1.0
0

-2.0
-3.1
-0.7
-2.2
-4.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.7
0.0
2.0
-1.8
0

-1.2
-2.3
-0.2
-1.4
-3.3
-1.5
0.5
-1.3
-1.8
0.2
-1.0
-0.2
0

-1.0
-2.3
-0.1
-0.9
-2.8
0.0
-0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.3
-10.4
0.2
0

76.90

75.70

71.20

61.20

58.20

56.80

51.50

48.60

46.60

45.00

42.40

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

100

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

APPENDIX 2

Czech Republic: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

10.278
107.0
385.8
3.04
23.0

10.221
130.7
346.4
2.74
28.3

10.507
149.3
299.8
2.61
25.6

10.691
165.0
258.3
2.32
34.2

10.816
184.3
230.0
2.20
34.7

10.864
200.5
209.3
2.16
34.2

10.840
218.8
197.8
1.87
33.2

10.782
237.3
190.8
1.69
33.3

10.740
255.9
179.8
1.57
31.6

10.715
274.0
171.8
1.48
31.5

10.668
290.0
164.0
1.42
32.2

0.2
3.4
-2.5
-1.5

0.3
2.1
-2.6
-1.7

0.0
1.7
-1.5
-1.6

-0.1
1.4
-0.9
-1.4

15.6
14.6

21.4
16.4

29.4
19.7

35.5
21.5

39.6
21.5

42.3
21.1

44.6
20.4

47.0
19.8

49.9
19.5

52.9
19.3

54.9
18.9

6.6

3.0

1.2

1.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
26.8
27.5

68.9
86.6
81.3
29.2
48.0

46.0
82.3
76.4
27.9
47.3

45.8
77.4
68.8
26.8
45.6

41.6
69.7
60.9
24.4
43.9

38.5
64.0
55.0
22.1
41.2

36.3
56.8
47.4
21.1
39.2

34.6
53.2
43.8
20.4
37.8

33.1
49.5
40.9
19.8
36.4

31.9
46.3
39.2
19.2
35.4

30.8
43.8
37.6
18.6
34.6

-7.5
-1.9
-2.7
0.4
5.6

-1.0
-1.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.8

-1.3
-2.0
-2.5
-1.5
-1.1

-0.8
-1.3
-1.1
-0.6
-0.6

0.60
2.26
2.80
1.37
1.63
2.85

0.55
2.14
2.56
1.26
1.27
2.92

0.53
2.00
2.37
1.22
1.24
2.81

0.38
2.00
2.31
1.25
1.28
2.78

0.35
1.88
2.09
1.18
1.31
2.64

0.34
1.86
2.08
1.12
1.29
2.64

0.25
1.84
2.07
1.06
1.18
2.62

0.19
1.81
1.99
1.05
1.14
2.61

0.16
1.72
1.80
0.99
1.13
2.60

0.13
1.69
1.77
0.93
1.12
2.60

0.12
1.65
1.71
0.91
1.10
2.58

-1.3
-1.2
-1.7
-1.2
-2.7
-0.1

-4.0
-0.6
-1.2
-0.4
0.6
-0.6

-3.4
-0.2
-0.1
-1.0
-1.1
-0.1

-3.7
-0.5
-0.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.1

4.7
1.3

5.9
0.2

9.0
4.2

10.9
5.5

13.8
10.3

14.3
10.6

15.2
10.9

15.4
10.9

16.7
11.0

17.0
10.9

17.3
11.1

72911
13590
52561
372
3907
723
1758
0
0
0
0
13312
1706
947
947
0
0
0
10659
3733
0
8972
1286
129
272
0
0

81931
24728
49522
326
4215
739
2380
21
0
0
0
15607
3621
1044
1016
28
1
0
10943
3808
0
8871
1525
276
271
0
0

85319
27998
47113
159
4121
2188
2789
335
616
0
0
18071
3636
3251
1077
215
1960
0
11184
2889
0
8866
1703
279
336
0
0

76298
30765
32031
6
3825
3817
3307
458
2090
0
0
18930
3820
3475
1188
277
2011
0
11635
3359
0
8253
2394
414
575
0
0

75945
30692
30181
11
4555
4483
3388
498
2138
0
0
18395
3827
3509
1192
307
2011
0
11059
3601
0
7633
2417
342
666
0
0

78639
30692
31802
14
5092
4839
3422
582
2198
0
0
16811
3827
3586
1192
352
2042
0
9397
3697
0
5908
2497
326
666
0
0

81420
45074
18520
13
6444
5069
3446
632
2223
0
0
17998
5597
3649
1194
387
2068
0
8752
3644
0
5326
2418
322
686
0
0

89244
57814
13812
20
6288
4947
3465
655
2243
0
0
20437
7162
3698
1195
414
2089
0
9577
3458
0
6144
2436
311
686
0
0

96399
58100
20646
37
6294
4647
3728
677
2270
0
0
21630
7197
3804
1248
438
2117
0
10629
3681
846
7167
2452
297
714
0
0

101684
58399
24745
43
6834
4609
4067
690
2297
0
0
22191
7233
3917
1318
453
2145
0
11040
3911
1504
7443
2715
293
589
0
0

106722
61813
23478
62
8786
5411
4138
703
2331
0
0
22755
7624
3978
1330
468
2180
0
11152
4134
1609
7524
2848
158
624
0
0

1.6
-1.2
7.5
0.9
-1.1
-4.4
-8.1
-23.6
0.5
1.0
11.7
7.4
4.7
2.0
0.0
4.1
0.0
13.3
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
0.2
7.9
0.5
13.1
0.8
1.3
1.0
0.0
3.6
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.5
-0.1
-2.5
2.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-1.5
2.9
3.6
8.0
2.1
2.2
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.7
3.9
-4.8
2.2
3.5
1.2
0.2
2.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
3.9
0.4
0.0
2.4
0.3
0.0
-2.3
0.1
0.0
-3.5
0.0
-0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0

1.4
1.6
1.2
8.0
1.6
0.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.6
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.0
1.2
0.6
0.0
1.7
0.8
-3.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

57.9

55.3

49.8

43.2

44.4

50.1

48.9

47.3

47.4

48.3

49.4

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

31.2
17.9
0.0
22.0
18.6
3.4

30.0
16.8
0.0
34.0
30.2
3.8

30.1
14.2
0.0
39.8
32.8
6.9

32.0
16.8
0.0
53.0
40.3
12.7

33.4
20.5
0.0
54.2
40.4
13.8

35.5
23.0
0.0
53.1
39.0
14.0

31.8
20.9
0.0
69.3
55.4
14.0

31.6
19.1
0.0
77.5
64.8
12.7

37.3
18.9
8.7
72.0
60.3
11.7

39.2
18.6
14.2
68.9
57.4
11.5

39.3
18.4
14.3
69.7
57.9
11.8

103.4
16.2
66.8
15.4
5.0
0.0

111.9
15.6
71.8
14.6
9.9
0.0

108.6
17.4
67.1
15.6
8.5
0.0

118.3
18.6
72.4
17.3
10.0
0.0

128.2
19.9
77.2
19.2
11.8
0.0

138.2
21.0
82.5
20.8
14.0
0.0

149.4
22.0
88.4
22.5
16.5
0.0

159.2
22.9
94.1
23.9
18.3
0.0

169.1
23.8
99.5
25.5
20.3
0.0

176.7
24.6
103.4
26.7
21.9
0.0

184.6
25.4
107.6
28.0
23.7
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.0
0.1
5.4
0.0

1.7
1.3
1.4
2.1
3.4
0.0

1.5
1.0
1.4
1.6
3.4
0.0

1.1
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.8
0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

54.9
37.3
17.5
0.1

58.4
43.4
14.9
0.1

65.7
51.8
13.8
0.1

71.2
55.9
15.3
0.1

77.2
60.2
16.9
0.1

83.3
64.6
18.6
0.1

90.0
69.3
20.6
0.1

94.6
72.8
21.8
0.1

99.6
76.4
23.1
0.1

102.7
78.8
23.8
0.1

106.0
81.3
24.6
0.1

1.8
3.3
-2.4
-5.0

1.6
1.5
2.1
1.9

1.5
1.4
2.0
1.9

0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

4280
200
2286
1383
209
197
50

6066
189
2653
2684
193
342
50

6132
210
2393
2998
186
341
40

6422
224
2476
3130
203
384
40

6519
236
2381
3262
220
416
50

6496
239
2254
3309
230
459
50

6677
242
2280
3391
240
517
60

6821
244
2340
3443
244
544
60

6975
248
2398
3500
243
580
60

7034
251
2420
3518
236
603
70

7102
255
2438
3556
228
617
70

3.7
0.5
0.5
8.0
-1.2
5.6
-2.2
0.0

0.6
1.2
-0.1
0.8
1.7
2.0
1.8
0.0

0.2
0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.9
2.2
1.7
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.3
0.9
0.8
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

101

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Denmark: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

28093
0
18600
7428
0
2065
3
1687
365
8
3

31314
0
19011
9397
0
2906
2
2317
569
10
8

23335
0
12479
7357
0
3498
2
2798
671
16
10

24411
0
10422
10300
0
3689
2
2673
913
101
0

20066
0
8631
7177
0
4258
2
2813
1270
172
0

17487
0
7193
5725
0
4570
2
2860
1504
204
0

14616
0
4992
4888
0
4736
2
2829
1679
227
0

13781
0
4377
4558
0
4846
2
2844
1753
246
0

12298
0
3498
3634
0
5166
3
2938
1972
253
0

8050
0
1522
1164
0
5364
3
3015
2076
271
0

6856
0
526
457
0
5874
2
3246
2352
274
0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

-7447
3783
-8463
-8856
393
-2882
57

-10454
3505
-9392
-11255
1863
-5010
118

-3648
2642
-3957
-5214
1257
-3022
-98

-4787
2854
-2587
-3715
1128
-6097
-78

-1612
1680
-1162
-2368
1206
-3485
-103

498
904
62
-1217
1279
-1934
-82

3579
155
2200
778
1422
-265
-79

4443
119
2689
1207
1482
118
-79

6250
45
3569
1984
1585
1065
-78

11031
42
5733
3930
1803
3634
-85

12701
41
6788
4901
1887
4109
-95

-6.9
-3.5
-7.3
-5.2
12.3
0.5
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

19792
3985
9160
4465
0
57
2124

19765
3713
8289
4413
0
118
3232

19317
3809
6886
4437
0
-98
4283

18851
2854
7065
4201
0
-78
4809

17618
1680
6645
3680
0
-103
5717

17101
904
6394
3768
0
-82
6118

17248
155
6275
4593
0
-79
6305

17252
119
6168
4602
0
-79
6443

17537
45
6174
4580
0
-78
6816

18021
42
6337
4656
0
-85
7070

18438
41
6363
4397
0
-95
7733

20.1
46.3
22.6
0.0
10.7

18.8
41.9
22.3
0.0
16.4

19.7
35.6
23.0
0.0
22.2

15.1
37.5
22.3
0.0
25.5

9.5
37.7
20.9
0.0
32.4

5.3
37.4
22.0
0.0
35.8

0.9
36.4
26.6
0.0
36.6

0.7
35.8
26.7
0.0
37.3

0.3
35.2
26.1
0.0
38.9

0.2
35.2
25.8
0.0
39.2

0.2
34.5
23.8
0.0
41.9

36047
4045

36240
3848

38778
5260

36243
3977

33667
3232

33686
3168

34521
3004

36759
3187

39342
3325

43020
3585

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

7834
3669
1354
2112
699
0
0

7127
3444
346
1996
1341
0
0

7595
3760
216
1809
1811
0
0

5794
2771
45
1614
1365
0
0

4872
1604
48
1394
1826
0
0

4213
833
40
1520
1820
0
0

4084
88
37
2400
1560
0
0

4278
62
41
2410
1765
0
0

4349
0
48
2437
1864
0
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

9033
8496
0
520
17

8460
7928
0
519
13

8105
7277
0
815
13

8146
6670
206
1268
2

7796
6233
356
1204
4

7762
5949
349
1459
5

7868
5745
350
1767
6

7482
5561
359
1555
7

Energy Branch Consumption

1150

1247

1195

1105

895

779

655

301

289

265

275

279

283

286

14719

15497

15535

15072

14336

14027

2932
1156
1777
4160
2805
4821

2863
1107
1756
4451
2856
5327

2434
823
1611
4900
3029
5172

2336
773
1563
4587
2854
5296

2352
794
1557
4210
2660
5115

290
7059
1667
2791
2255
657
0

253
7291
1707
2877
2424
944
0

136
6751
1793
2757
2833
1265
0

80
6260
1594
2670
2819
1648
1

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

1669

2674

3741

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

70.3

53.4
24.5
2.2
5.4
3.9
3.0
14.4
2.5
14.4

65.1
29.2
35.9
50.0
20.3
2.3
5.1
3.6
2.7
15.9
2.2
12.9

62.6
27.8
34.7
48.6
21.1
2.1
3.9
3.2
2.7
15.5
1.3
12.7

100.00

92.60

89.00

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-1.8
-1.5
0.0 -100.0
-3.9
-3.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
5.4
2.0
-3.5
0.7
5.2
0.1
6.3
6.6
7.1
26.7
13.9
-43.9

-3.1
0.0
-5.3
-3.8
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.1
2.8
2.8
1.0

-3.7
0.0
-10.6
-11.2
0.0
1.1
-0.1
0.7
1.7
1.0
0.6

-7.8
-4.4
-11.5
-7.6
-0.4
1.4
0.6

0.0
-21.2
0.0
0.0
1.7
-22.7
-2.6

6.5
-6.5
5.8
9.6
1.4
0.0
0.9

-0.2
-0.5
-2.8
-0.1
0.0
0.0
7.3

-0.9
-7.9
-0.4
-1.9
0.0
0.6
2.9

-0.2
-21.2
-0.6
2.2
0.0
-2.6
1.0

0.3
-6.5
0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.9
1.0

46114
3919

0.7
2.7

-1.4
-4.8

0.3
-0.7

1.5
1.3

4615
0
61
2638
1916
0
0

4763
0
60
2363
2341
0
0

-0.3
0.2
-16.8
-1.5
10.0
0.0
0.0

-4.3
-8.2
-14.0
-2.6
0.1
0.0
0.0

7370
5461
348
1553
8

7412
5433
383
1587
9

7301
5410
431
1451
10

-1.1
-1.5
0.0
4.6
-2.9

-0.4
-1.5
0.0
4.0
-11.9

0.1
-0.8
-0.1
3.9
5.5

-0.4
-0.3
1.0
-1.0
2.2

621

559

427

385

0.4

-2.8

-3.1

-2.6

288

292

298

307

-1.3

0.5

0.3

0.3

14064

14207

14519

15034

15502

0.5

-0.8

-0.2

0.5

2307
792
1515
4065
2699
4956

2310
789
1521
4135
2719
4901

2356
812
1544
4222
2735
4895

2417
839
1578
4387
2768
4948

2565
895
1670
4603
2806
5060

2691
958
1733
4802
2817
5193

-1.8
-3.3
-1.0
1.6
0.8
0.7

-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-1.5
-1.3
-0.1

-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.4

0.8
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.2
0.3

72
5848
1521
2488
2677
1727
3

66
5597
1524
2517
2619
1699
4

62
5461
1531
2603
2693
1706
8

53
5374
1604
2776
2676
1712
12

41
5393
1637
2981
2722
1726
18

39
5539
1656
3262
2736
1778
25

38
5575
1743
3483
2789
1845
30

-7.3
-0.4
0.7
-0.1
2.3
6.8
0.0

-6.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.0
-0.6
3.2
75.6

-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.5
0.1
-0.1
11.5

-2.4
0.1
0.6
1.5
0.2
0.4
7.1

4006

5042

5487

5547

5730

6084

6285

6963

8.4

3.0

1.0

1.1

55.0
23.0
32.1
41.6
16.3
2.1
3.1
2.5
2.3
15.3
1.2
12.2

47.8
17.4
30.4
34.4
10.9
1.7
3.1
2.2
2.2
14.3
1.3
12.1

44.0
14.5
29.5
30.6
8.2
1.5
2.8
2.2
2.2
13.8
1.3
12.1

42.1
13.3
28.7
29.1
7.3
1.2
2.6
2.1
2.2
13.6
1.0
11.9

41.4
13.1
28.3
28.7
7.1
1.2
2.6
2.1
2.2
13.5
1.0
11.7

40.9
12.8
28.1
28.3
6.8
1.0
2.6
2.1
2.2
13.6
1.0
11.6

41.0
12.5
28.5
29.0
7.3
0.7
2.9
2.1
2.2
13.8
0.4
11.6

40.4
11.8
28.6
28.5
6.5
0.6
3.0
2.1
2.2
14.0
0.3
11.6

-1.2

-0.9
-1.5
-0.4
-3.1
-2.0
-0.8
0.8
-6.7
-1.3
0

-2.7
-4.6
-1.3
-3.4
-6.4
-1.9
-2.5
-3.7
-2.0
-0.8
0.1
-0.4
0

-1.3
-2.6
-0.6
-1.6
-3.8
-3.3
-1.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-2.0
-0.2
0

-0.2
-0.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-3.8
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
-5.9
-0.1
0

78.30

67.90

62.50

59.80

58.80

58.20

58.30

57.50

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-1.7
0.8
-25.2 -100.0
-2.5
2.4
5.6
-0.1
-1.6
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

102

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Denmark: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

5.330
222.7
88.9
2.70
-35.3

5.411
237.0
83.4
2.53
-50.9

5.535
235.6
82.0
2.52
-18.2

5.629
252.8
74.6
2.21
-24.4

5.720
270.4
65.1
1.95
-8.7

5.811
292.4
58.5
1.79
2.8

5.893
314.9
54.8
1.69
19.7

5.954
338.1
51.0
1.66
24.4

5.992
364.1
48.2
1.62
33.7

6.017
395.4
45.6
1.61
57.8

6.038
430.5
42.8
1.54
64.9

0.4
0.6
-0.8
-0.7

0.3
1.4
-2.3
-2.5

0.3
1.5
-1.7
-1.4

0.1
1.6
-1.2
-0.4

16.5
7.4

22.7
9.6

25.3
10.7

27.4
10.8

30.7
11.4

32.5
11.1

34.0
10.8

35.7
10.6

37.9
10.4

40.4
10.2

43.5
10.1

4.4

2.0

1.0

1.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
50.4
40.1

101.9
95.9
95.4
49.3
59.2

91.8
101.7
97.9
49.2
68.4

83.7
88.4
85.4
47.1
67.0

80.3
75.4
73.9
41.8
63.8

74.4
66.9
68.8
37.8
60.9

70.5
62.7
64.0
35.2
58.1

67.2
59.1
59.7
33.8
55.6

64.8
56.4
55.8
32.8
53.9

64.5
53.8
51.9
32.2
52.9

63.3
50.8
47.6
31.9
51.9

-0.9
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
5.5

-1.3
-2.9
-2.8
-1.6
-0.7

-1.3
-1.8
-1.4
-1.7
-0.9

-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-0.5
-0.6

0.36
1.81
1.85
0.94
1.05
2.98

0.28
1.76
1.79
0.80
0.95
2.99

0.26
1.63
1.62
0.66
0.90
3.00

0.21
1.54
1.33
0.54
0.81
2.88

0.15
1.52
1.30
0.52
0.84
2.79

0.11
1.49
1.20
0.54
0.83
2.78

0.10
1.46
1.14
0.51
0.82
2.77

0.09
1.44
1.11
0.50
0.82
2.76

0.09
1.41
1.07
0.48
0.80
2.75

0.09
1.40
1.14
0.45
0.79
2.73

0.08
1.38
1.10
0.44
0.80
2.70

-2.9
-1.0
-1.3
-3.6
-1.6
0.1

-5.6
-0.7
-2.2
-2.2
-0.7
-0.7

-4.0
-0.4
-1.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1

-1.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
-0.1

10.6
0.1

16.1
0.2

22.1
0.3

24.6
3.0

32.8
10.2

36.6
11.1

37.0
11.9

37.8
12.6

39.4
13.2

39.4
14.5

42.4
16.4

36053
0
16673
4439
8774
1895
30
4241
1
0
0
12444
0
2428
10
2417
1
0
10016
5578
0
6173
2103
1164
577
0
0

36246
0
15463
1375
8780
3989
23
6614
2
0
0
12992
0
3142
11
3128
3
0
9850
4738
0
5166
2683
1107
893
0
0

38785
0
16976
750
7908
5315
21
7809
6
0
0
13596
0
3765
9
3749
7
0
9831
4839
0
4967
2709
1134
1021
0
0

36243
0
11928
202
8114
5080
29
10617
272
0
0
14049
0
4784
12
4489
282
0
9265
4255
0
4423
2715
1105
1022
0
0

33667
0
5474
201
6769
6084
23
14770
347
0
0
13983
0
6333
12
5960
360
0
7650
3844
0
3308
2693
505
1144
0
0

33686
0
2603
197
6964
5829
22
17488
584
0
0
13772
0
7450
12
6858
579
0
6322
3455
0
2050
2806
321
1144
0
0

34521
0
276
186
8824
4908
23
19521
784
0
0
14229
0
8195
12
7420
762
0
6034
2974
0
1231
3360
299
1146
0
0

36759
0
169
201
9358
5833
29
20386
784
0
0
13580
0
8369
12
7594
763
0
5211
3269
0
91
3522
292
1307
0
0

39342
0
0
247
8950
6404
29
22927
785
0
0
14988
0
9230
12
8454
763
0
5757
3378
0
0
4080
245
1432
0
0

43020
0
0
353
10909
6803
29
24139
787
0
0
16394
0
9725
12
8947
766
0
6669
4280
0
0
4840
207
1621
0
0

46114
0
0
353
8889
8714
22
27347
788
0
0
18453
0
10989
12
10210
767
0
7464
4686
0
0
5120
543
1802
0
0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

31.6

30.2

30.9

28.2

26.6

27.1

27.1

30.2

29.4

29.4

27.9

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

34.9
52.6
0.0
17.1
0.0
17.1

35.7
52.1
0.0
29.3
0.0
29.3

35.0
49.2
0.0
33.9
0.0
33.9

37.6
61.6
0.0
44.1
0.0
44.1

32.7
50.7
0.0
63.0
0.0
63.0

31.8
45.0
0.0
71.0
0.0
71.0

29.9
38.7
0.0
73.1
0.0
73.1

31.3
41.4
0.0
73.5
0.0
73.5

30.8
39.5
0.0
76.6
0.0
76.6

33.7
40.8
0.0
73.8
0.0
73.8

32.4
38.1
0.0
80.0
0.0
80.0

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

73.5
5.5
51.2
5.5
7.9
3.3

75.0
6.0
50.6
6.1
9.3
3.0

77.7
6.3
51.6
6.6
10.2
2.9

81.0
6.6
52.8
6.9
11.7
3.0

84.6
6.8
53.9
7.3
13.4
3.1

88.8
7.1
55.3
7.7
15.5
3.2

93.2
7.4
56.4
8.2
17.9
3.3

97.1
7.7
57.6
8.6
19.7
3.4

101.2
8.0
58.8
9.1
21.7
3.6

105.3
8.3
60.1
9.6
23.5
3.7

109.5
8.6
61.4
10.1
25.5
3.9

0.6
1.4
0.1
1.8
2.6
-1.3

0.9
0.7
0.4
1.0
2.8
0.7

1.0
0.8
0.5
1.1
2.9
0.7

0.8
0.8
0.4
1.1
1.8
0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

27.8
24.0
2.0
1.7

27.5
23.3
2.0
2.2

19.7
15.0
2.2
2.4

22.1
17.1
2.4
2.5

24.8
19.4
2.6
2.7

26.2
20.6
2.9
2.8

27.8
21.7
3.1
3.0

29.0
22.6
3.3
3.1

30.2
23.5
3.6
3.2

31.5
24.5
3.7
3.2

32.9
25.6
3.9
3.3

-3.4
-4.6
1.0
3.5

2.3
2.6
1.7
1.0

1.2
1.1
1.8
1.1

0.8
0.8
1.1
0.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

4821
106
2562
1031
103
856
1630

5327
114
2422
1538
107
955
1910

5172
126
2648
1254
113
875
1550

5295
129
2536
1386
114
968
1610

5114
131
2183
1488
116
1030
1660

4955
132
1956
1503
118
1076
1700

4900
133
1845
1519
121
1107
1740

4894
135
1810
1517
122
1132
1780

4947
137
1786
1536
120
1187
1810

5059
140
1788
1578
117
1252
1840

5192
143
1802
1618
116
1325
1880

0.7
1.7
0.3
2.0
0.9
0.2
-0.4
0.0

-0.1
0.4
-1.9
1.7
0.2
1.6
0.7
0.0

-0.4
0.1
-1.7
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.0

0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.9
0.4
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

0.7
-1.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
-10.7
-16.3
-12.3
-1.0
-1.5
10.9
1.4
-3.5
0.7
6.3
6.6
17.5
50.0
-19.3 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
4.5
5.3
-1.0
3.3
4.5
4.7
21.5
48.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-2.5
-1.4
-2.3
0.0
0.0
-2.1
-4.0
2.6
-0.1
-0.3
-7.8
5.9
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
1.5
0.0
0.0
-25.8 -100.0
-0.8
3.3
2.7
0.0
-2.1
2.9
0.0
-0.1
2.8
1.7
8.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.3
0.0
0.0
2.6
1.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
1.6
7.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
1.1
-2.5
2.3
0.0
0.0
-9.4 -100.0
2.2
2.1
-5.1
3.0
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

103

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Estonia: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

3435
2669
249
5
0
512
0
512
0
0
0

4250
3176
375
7
0
692
2
686
5
0
0

5467
3943
532
5
0
988
2
961
24
0
0

6764
4432
1089
0
0
1243
5
1165
70
3
0

8842
5259
2080
0
0
1503
7
1394
98
4
0

8682
5022
2120
0
0
1540
8
1350
177
6
0

8438
4687
2174
0
0
1577
10
1335
225
7
0

8269
4466
2228
0
0
1575
11
1292
263
9
0

8202
4281
2276
0
0
1645
12
1303
321
10
0

8110
4141
2282
0
0
1687
12
1250
414
12
0

7960
4054
2275
0
0
1631
12
1141
466
12
0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

1619
270
777
-125
902
657
-80

1435
27
859
-225
1085
792
-138

813
-22
710
-394
1104
558
-280

354
-6
237
-774
1011
725
-330

-833
-2
-763
-1415
653
515
-149

-749
4
-765
-1378
613
477
-85

-615
5
-734
-1348
614
412
35

-449
5
-690
-1315
625
398
113

-320
9
-625
-1275
650
376
135

-238
10
-522
-1209
687
230
174

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

4970
2968
908
662
0
-80
513

5569
3194
1126
800
0
-138
589

6106
3917
1060
563
0
-280
847

6881
4426
1090
723
0
-330
971

7767
5257
1081
509
0
-149
1069

7688
5026
1120
466
0
-85
1161

7578
4692
1208
398
0
35
1245

7570
4470
1309
378
0
113
1300

7627
4290
1424
348
0
135
1430

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

59.7
18.3
13.3
0.0
10.3

57.3
20.2
14.4
0.0
10.6

64.2
17.4
9.2
0.0
13.9

64.3
15.8
10.5
0.0
14.1

67.7
13.9
6.6
0.0
13.8

65.4
14.6
6.1
0.0
15.1

61.9
15.9
5.2
0.0
16.4

59.0
17.3
5.0
0.0
17.2

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

8507
2183

10203
2194

12962
2292

15162
2690

13346
2367

12791
2277

11658
2164

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

2442
2199
16
226
2
0
0

2600
2353
10
227
10
0
0

3115
2715
11
209
179
0
0

3152
2668
32
289
162
0
0

2362
1978
4
217
163
0
0

2042
1673
0
209
160
0
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

968
0
0
455
514

1296
0
0
489
807

1564
0
0
446
1117

2106
0
28
429
1649

3567
0
74
356
3137

Energy Branch Consumption

165

193

201

231

Non-Energy Uses

180

182

37

39

2423

2867

2905

571
245
326
929
345
578

719
273
446
890
494
765

118
763
177
429
511
425
0

119
971
263
519
547
447
0

Annual % Change

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

4.8
4.9
4.0
2.9
7.9
14.6
-1.7 -100.0
0.0
0.0
6.8
4.3
18.4
11.7
6.5
3.8
0.0
15.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.5
-1.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
3.7
-0.4
8.6
5.3
0.5

-0.3
-0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.9
-0.8
3.7
2.8
0.8

-82
8
-407
-1138
731
148
189

-6.7
0.0
-0.9
12.2
2.0
-1.6
13.4

0.0
-23.1
0.0
13.6
-5.1
-0.8
-6.1

-3.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-2.2
0.0

-9.6
2.3
-2.9
-0.8
0.9
-5.0
8.8

7609
4151
1531
195
0
174
1558

7609
4062
1640
107
0
189
1610

2.1
2.8
1.6
-1.6
0.0
13.4
5.1

2.4
3.0
0.2
-1.0
0.0
-6.1
2.4

-0.2
-1.1
1.1
-2.4
0.0
0.0
1.5

0.0
-0.7
1.5
-6.3
0.0
8.8
1.3

56.3
18.7
4.6
0.0
18.7

54.6
20.1
2.6
0.0
20.5

53.4
21.6
1.4
0.0
21.2

11007
2095

10917
2023

11022
2049

11482
2130

4.3
0.5

0.3
0.3

-1.3
-0.9

-0.1
-0.1

1666
1255
0
222
189
0
0

1461
942
0
287
232
0
0

1325
689
0
372
265
0
0

1167
533
0
337
297
0
0

1089
441
0
359
289
0
0

2.5
2.1
-3.0
-0.8
55.4
0.0
0.0

-2.7
-3.1
-10.7
0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.0

-3.4
-4.4
-35.6
0.2
1.5
0.0
0.0

-2.1
-5.1
0.0
2.4
2.1
0.0
0.0

3647
0
70
370
3206

3734
0
69
364
3301

3811
0
65
347
3398

3900
0
64
352
3484

3931
0
63
361
3507

3930
0
64
356
3511

4.9
0.0
0.0
-0.2
8.1

8.6
0.0
0.0
-2.2
10.9

0.5
0.0
-0.7
0.2
0.5

0.3
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
0.3

226

208

187

171

159

149

144

2.0

1.2

-1.9

-1.3

43

45

45

48

49

50

51

-14.6

1.6

0.4

0.6

3091

3151

3198

3241

3273

3317

3358

3393

1.8

0.8

0.3

0.2

570
231
339
1028
522
786

665
285
380
1044
561
822

726
329
396
1040
571
815

725
328
397
1078
593
801

740
333
408
1078
607
815

749
337
412
1081
618
825

767
341
426
1080
628
842

770
339
431
1097
645
846

782
336
446
1109
654
848

0.0
-0.6
0.4
1.0
4.2
3.1

2.4
3.6
1.6
0.1
0.9
0.4

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.2

83
945
207
593
532
546
0

85
950
218
686
552
599
0

116
884
228
717
544
661
1

118
863
245
743
553
674
2

108
874
246
778
554
677
5

111
885
252
806
557
655
6

106
898
251
829
560
666
7

102
900
246
875
579
650
7

100
895
252
924
556
661
6

-3.4
2.2
1.6
3.3
0.4
2.5
6.3

3.3
-0.7
1.0
1.9
0.2
1.9
89.1

-0.7
-0.1
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.2
14.5

-0.4
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.0
-0.1
1.5

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

489

548

775

925

929

1010

1119

1160

1254

1390

1457

4.7

1.8

1.9

1.3

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

16.9

19.3
13.9
5.4
16.7
12.9
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.4
2.4
0.4
2.2

19.2
14.0
5.3
16.7
12.9
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.4
2.4
0.4
2.1

16.0
10.9
5.1
13.3
9.5
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.6
2.1

14.8
9.7
5.1
12.0
8.2
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.6
2.2

12.9
7.8
5.1
10.2
6.4
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.5
2.1

11.7
6.6
5.1
9.1
5.2
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.5
2.2

10.8
5.6
5.1
8.1
4.3
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.5
2.3
0.5
2.2

10.0
4.9
5.1
7.3
3.5
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.6
2.3
0.5
2.2

9.6
4.5
5.1
7.0
3.1
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.6
2.2
0.4
2.2

1.3

14.2
10.9
0.1
0.9
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.7
2.1

18.6
13.0
5.6
15.7
11.5
0.2
1.0
0.2
0.5
2.3
0.7
2.2

1.6
1.7
-0.5
-1.7
-4.2
2.2
3.3
-6.0
0.8
0

-1.9
-2.4
-0.5
-2.2
-3.0
1.3
1.6
-2.7
1.4
-0.6
4.6
-0.6
0

-2.1
-3.3
0.0
-2.6
-3.8
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
1.0
-0.1
-1.4
0.2
0

-1.5
-2.7
0.0
-1.9
-3.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.1
-0.3
0.0
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

41.30

45.50

47.10

46.90

39.00

36.10

31.40

28.60

26.30

24.30

23.40

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

104

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Estonia: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

1.372
10.1
490.7
2.86
31.9

1.348
14.3
389.2
2.82
25.2

1.340
14.3
426.8
2.73
12.9

1.335
17.3
396.8
2.43
5.0

1.324
19.4
399.6
1.71
-10.4

1.304
21.5
357.0
1.56
-9.4

1.280
24.1
314.4
1.35
-7.9

1.259
26.4
286.4
1.20
-5.7

1.243
28.8
265.2
1.07
-4.1

1.229
30.7
247.6
0.96
-3.0

1.213
32.2
236.1
0.92
-1.0

-0.2
3.5
-1.4
-0.5

-0.1
3.1
-0.7
-4.6

-0.3
2.2
-2.4
-2.4

-0.3
1.5
-1.4
-1.9

1.4
13.9

2.2
15.3

2.9
20.3

3.6
20.8

4.3
21.9

4.7
21.9

5.1
21.2

5.5
20.8

5.9
20.6

6.3
20.6

6.6
20.6

7.5

3.9

1.8

1.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
40.4
12.8

84.7
63.3
104.6
32.5
18.0

70.0
76.0
107.8
33.9
26.1

65.3
62.4
94.5
32.9
25.0

63.3
54.7
85.9
29.5
23.8

59.2
50.4
79.7
26.1
22.3

55.9
44.2
72.0
24.3
21.1

53.3
39.8
66.3
23.0
20.3

51.1
35.9
61.5
22.2
19.4

48.8
33.6
58.8
21.9
18.5

48.3
32.0
56.5
21.5
17.7

-3.5
-2.7
0.8
-1.7
7.4

-1.0
-3.2
-2.2
-1.4
-0.9

-1.2
-2.1
-1.7
-1.9
-1.2

-0.7
-1.6
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9

0.68
1.33
1.58
0.32
0.92
2.95

0.65
1.42
1.44
0.27
1.04
2.98

0.64
1.27
1.33
0.19
0.75
3.00

0.57
1.21
1.24
0.15
0.70
2.90

0.46
1.18
1.23
0.14
0.79
2.72

0.40
1.16
1.21
0.13
0.83
2.72

0.34
1.14
1.15
0.13
0.82
2.70

0.28
1.15
1.15
0.13
0.85
2.70

0.23
1.14
1.08
0.13
0.86
2.69

0.18
1.12
1.03
0.13
0.86
2.67

0.17
1.10
1.01
0.13
0.86
2.65

-0.6
-0.4
-1.7
-5.2
-2.0
0.2

-3.3
-0.8
-0.8
-2.8
0.5
-1.0

-3.1
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
0.4
-0.1

-3.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
-0.1

17.5
0.0

16.9
0.0

23.6
0.1

27.2
2.0

27.1
10.2

29.1
10.4

31.9
10.9

32.8
11.1

35.1
11.5

38.3
12.3

39.8
12.9

8509
0
7678
56
757
13
5
0
0
0
0
2736
0
2
2
0
0
0
2734
452
0
2476
191
41
26
0
0

10205
0
9302
32
760
35
22
54
0
0
0
2780
0
37
5
32
0
0
2743
446
0
2469
196
41
37
0
0

12964
0
11167
41
712
740
27
277
0
0
0
2739
0
114
6
108
0
0
2625
402
0
2305
197
42
81
0
0

15162
0
12228
133
1216
705
62
817
0
0
0
3187
0
371
17
354
0
0
2816
428
0
2153
476
84
104
0
0

13346
0
9881
18
1519
707
82
1140
0
0
0
2853
0
516
21
495
0
0
2337
423
0
1376
723
134
104
0
0

12791
0
8478
0
1475
693
89
2056
0
0
0
2968
0
828
22
807
0
0
2140
430
0
1376
566
94
104
0
0

11658
0
6449
0
1576
902
118
2613
0
0
0
3275
0
1084
28
1056
0
0
2191
443
0
1369
617
93
112
0
0

11007
0
4664
0
2066
1094
128
3056
0
0
0
3583
0
1241
31
1209
0
0
2343
497
0
1369
758
93
123
0
0

10917
0
3171
0
2652
1225
136
3733
0
0
0
3841
0
1479
33
1446
0
0
2362
501
0
1369
771
93
129
0
0

11022
0
2278
0
2400
1395
138
4810
0
0
0
4274
0
1931
34
1896
0
0
2343
573
0
1369
682
93
199
0
0

11482
0
1885
0
2570
1474
140
5413
0
0
0
4843
0
2160
34
2125
0
0
2683
644
0
1369
893
93
328
0
0

4.3
0.0
3.8
-3.1
-0.6
49.8
18.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49.8
11.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-1.2
0.0
-0.7
0.3
0.3
11.9
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.0
-1.2
-8.2
7.9
-0.5
11.7
15.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
16.3
13.6
16.4
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.5
0.0
-5.0
13.9
12.1
2.5
0.0
0.0

-1.3
0.0
-4.2
-35.6
0.4
2.5
3.7
8.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
7.7
2.6
7.9
0.0
0.0
-0.6
0.5
0.0
-0.1
-1.6
-3.6
0.7
0.0
0.0

-0.1
0.0
-6.0
0.0
2.5
2.5
0.9
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
3.5
1.1
3.6
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
5.5
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

31.7

37.4

48.9

48.9

48.8

45.4

37.9

33.0

30.9

28.3

26.2

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

29.9
11.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2

33.5
10.2
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.1

34.9
10.3
0.0
8.1
0.0
8.1

39.0
14.9
0.0
10.5
0.0
10.5

44.2
23.0
0.0
14.5
0.0
14.5

44.8
25.0
0.0
22.2
0.0
22.2

46.1
28.5
0.0
31.2
0.0
31.2

46.1
34.1
0.0
38.9
0.0
38.9

45.7
34.8
0.0
46.7
0.0
46.7

44.7
38.2
0.0
57.6
0.0
57.6

46.8
36.4
0.0
61.2
0.0
61.2

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

10.3
2.6
6.8
0.4
0.2
0.4

14.2
2.7
10.0
0.3
0.7
0.4

13.6
2.1
10.3
0.3
0.6
0.3

14.5
2.2
10.9
0.4
0.7
0.4

15.4
2.3
11.4
0.4
0.8
0.4

16.4
2.4
12.1
0.5
1.0
0.4

17.6
2.5
12.8
0.5
1.3
0.4

18.5
2.6
13.4
0.5
1.5
0.5

19.4
2.7
13.9
0.6
1.7
0.5

19.9
2.7
14.1
0.6
2.0
0.5

20.4
2.8
14.2
0.7
2.3
0.5

2.8
-2.4
4.3
-1.3
12.2
-0.9

1.3
1.2
1.1
2.3
4.1
1.2

1.3
0.8
1.1
2.3
4.3
1.1

0.8
0.4
0.5
1.4
2.9
0.9

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

12.1
3.9
8.1
0.0

16.5
5.8
10.6
0.0

12.3
5.6
6.6
0.0

13.5
6.0
7.5
0.0

14.9
6.4
8.5
0.0

16.4
6.8
9.6
0.0

18.1
7.3
10.8
0.0

19.4
7.8
11.5
0.0

20.7
8.4
12.4
0.0

21.7
8.7
12.9
0.0

22.6
9.1
13.5
0.0

0.2
3.6
-2.0
-3.0

2.0
1.3
2.5
0.8

2.0
1.4
2.3
1.8

1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

572
22
365
112
45
21
70

757
22
386
255
44
42
80

781
17
397
270
51
38
80

817
18
406
282
58
44
90

809
19
374
293
64
50
90

795
19
340
300
69
57
90

808
19
329
311
73
65
100

818
20
320
321
74
72
100

833
20
318
333
72
80
110

837
20
315
339
65
88
110

839
20
309
347
57
96
110

3.2
-2.5
0.8
9.2
1.3
6.3
1.3
0.0

0.3
1.2
-0.6
0.8
2.3
2.7
1.1
0.0

0.0
0.3
-1.3
0.6
1.3
2.7
0.7
0.0

0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.5
-1.3
2.0
0.5
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

105

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Finland: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

15043
1088
343
0
5799
7814
1261
6546
7
1
0

16886
2136
481
0
6003
8267
1185
7066
15
1
0

17485
1806
622
0
5881
9175
1111
8038
25
1
0

22359
2250
339
0
9225
10546
1221
9224
87
14
0

22848
1851
339
0
9507
11151
1173
9610
342
26
0

24479
1913
339
0
11582
10644
1185
8942
478
39
0

26678
1548
339
0
14442
10348
1218
8501
577
52
0

26748
1044
339
0
14704
10660
1230
8783
594
54
0

26935
949
339
0
13725
11922
1286
9633
945
58
0

28107
901
339
0
14159
12708
1324
10223
1103
58
0

29125
716
339
0
14453
13617
1365
10883
1311
58
0

1.5
5.2
6.1
0.0
0.1
1.6
-1.3
2.1
14.2
9.8
0.0

2.7
0.2
-5.9
0.0
4.9
2.0
0.5
1.8
29.8
34.7
0.0

1.6
-1.8
0.0
0.0
4.3
-0.7
0.4
-1.2
5.4
7.2
0.4

0.4
-3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.6
1.2
4.2
0.6
1.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

18570
3532
10594
12159
-1565
3422
1021

19278
3338
10956
11068
-112
3598
1463

17900
3976
9151
11522
-2370
3837
903

18356
3844
9131
11487
-2356
4136
782

17059
3283
8850
11007
-2158
3519
806

16159
3039
8634
10636
-2002
3732
-92

15338
3052
8343
10283
-1940
3719
-639

15251
3113
8174
10050
-1876
3716
-662

14666
2054
8013
9809
-1796
4344
-716

14028
1623
7987
9677
-1690
4348
-939

13750
1024
7930
9526
-1596
4762
-1014

-0.4
1.2
-1.5
-0.5
4.2
1.2
-1.2

-0.5
-1.9
-0.3
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1

-1.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-1.1
0.6
0.0

-0.5
-5.3
-0.3
-0.4
-1.0
1.2
2.3

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

32917
5124
9736
3422
5799
1021
7814

35057
4934
10870
3598
6003
1463
8189

36978
6878
10271
3837
5881
903
9208

40500
6093
9256
4135
9225
782
11009

39694
5134
8979
3515
9507
806
11753

40429
4952
8770
3725
11582
-92
11491

41811
4601
8486
3712
14442
-639
11209

41790
4157
8315
3705
14704
-662
11571

41393
3003
8159
4330
13725
-716
12892

41915
2524
8135
4319
14159
-939
13717

42652
1740
8080
4729
14453
-1014
14665

1.2
3.0
0.5
1.2
0.1
-1.2
1.7

0.7
-2.9
-1.3
-0.9
4.9
-1.1
2.5

0.5
-1.1
-0.6
0.5
4.3
0.0
-0.5

0.1
-4.7
-0.2
1.2
0.0
2.3
1.4

15.6
29.6
10.4
17.6
23.7

14.1
31.0
10.3
17.1
23.4

18.6
27.8
10.4
15.9
24.9

15.0
22.9
10.2
22.8
27.2

12.9
22.6
8.9
23.9
29.6

12.2
21.7
9.2
28.6
28.4

11.0
20.3
8.9
34.5
26.8

9.9
19.9
8.9
35.2
27.7

7.3
19.7
10.5
33.2
31.1

6.0
19.4
10.3
33.8
32.7

4.1
18.9
11.1
33.9
34.4

69921
5390

70525
5801

80577
6398

80001
6169

80083
6020

91554
6947

100382
7505

104941
8214

110154
8764

117468
9470

123273
9908

1.4
1.7

-0.1
-0.6

2.3
2.2

1.0
1.4

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

7136
3177
122
2093
1744
0
0

7744
2995
97
2349
2302
0
0

10211
5101
99
2264
2747
0
0

10213
4416
10
2478
3309
0
0

9232
3393
7
2108
3725
0
0

9130
3256
4
2391
3478
0
0

8517
2928
4
2447
3138
0
0

9121
2755
14
2316
4036
0
0

9500
1661
11
2940
4887
0
0

9563
1201
10
2927
5426
0
0

9401
414
21
3221
5744
0
0

3.6
4.8
-2.1
0.8
4.6
0.0
0.0

-1.0
-4.0
-23.4
-0.7
3.1
0.0
0.0

-0.8
-1.5
-4.6
1.5
-1.7
0.0
0.0

0.5
-9.3
8.3
1.4
3.1
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

21406
13249
0
1053
7103

21839
13247
0
1266
7326

23446
14629
142
1605
7069

26916
14624
222
1698
10372

26937
14149
380
1653
10756

28625
13801
354
1663
12807

30988
13398
333
1639
15618

30177
13140
322
1188
15527

28866
12878
314
1155
14518

29426
12754
308
1427
14936

30035
12600
320
1893
15222

0.9
1.0
0.0
4.3
0.0

1.4
-0.3
10.3
0.3
4.3

1.4
-0.5
-1.3
-0.1
3.8

-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.7
-0.1

Energy Branch Consumption

1112

1109

1477

1435

1383

1417

1411

1409

1414

1433

1439

2.9

-0.7

0.2

0.1

Non-Energy Uses

1113

1328

1579

1599

1697

1720

1724

1727

1727

1727

1740

3.6

0.7

0.2

0.0

24629

25487

26484

26276

25879

25363

25059

25047

25275

25504

25980

0.7

-0.2

-0.3

0.2

12329
10317
2012
4547
3400
4353

11997
9873
2124
5049
3705
4735

11604
9472
2132
5787
4125
4969

11810
9621
2189
5482
4018
4965

11982
9789
2193
5116
3934
4847

11846
9611
2236
4872
3981
4663

11876
9610
2266
4789
3897
4497

11760
9435
2325
4829
3997
4460

11791
9357
2434
4945
4036
4503

11773
9244
2528
5091
4118
4523

12029
9350
2680
5227
4155
4568

-0.6
-0.9
0.6
2.4
2.0
1.3

0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.2
-0.5
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2
0.3
-0.7
-0.1
-0.7

0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1

1108
7976
1204
6507
3335
4499
0

943
8295
1077
6942
3971
4259
0

878
7918
1009
7178
4663
4838
0

820
6974
1197
7027
4891
5366
1

869
6637
1028
7072
4805
5464
3

875
6459
959
7083
4752
5229
6

905
6191
904
7250
4659
5143
7

905
6098
845
7558
4701
4930
8

894
5994
846
7905
4674
4953
10

870
5969
842
8250
4755
4806
12

858
5901
886
8635
4873
4812
14

-2.3
-0.1
-1.8
1.0
3.4
0.7
6.7

-0.1
-1.8
0.2
-0.1
0.3
1.2
0.0

0.4
-0.7
-1.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.6
9.1

-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.9
0.2
-0.3
3.0

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

7253

7497

8794

9331

10388

10244

9922

10316

11528

12230

13108

1.9

1.7

-0.5

1.4

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

72.1

78.7
46.3
32.4
65.6
31.7
2.6
11.4
1.9
3.6
14.4
2.2
10.9

71.6
42.4
29.2
59.2
27.6
2.5
10.8
1.3
2.9
14.1
2.4
9.9

65.4
37.4
28.0
52.8
22.5
2.4
10.6
1.2
2.8
13.3
2.6
9.9

64.6
37.5
27.1
51.9
22.4
2.4
10.4
1.2
2.8
12.8
2.7
9.9

61.5
35.4
26.1
49.4
21.1
2.3
9.8
1.2
2.8
12.3
2.4
9.8

57.9
32.3
25.6
46.0
18.5
2.1
9.4
1.1
2.7
12.2
2.2
9.6

53.9
28.9
25.0
42.3
15.2
2.1
9.2
1.1
2.4
12.3
2.2
9.5

51.8
27.0
24.8
40.3
13.4
2.1
9.1
1.1
2.3
12.3
2.1
9.4

49.4
24.7
24.6
37.8
11.1
2.0
9.2
1.0
2.2
12.4
2.1
9.4

0.9

58.2
22.4
2.3
14.3
2.4
3.9
12.9
1.5
12.4

71.9
38.8
33.1
58.3
22.9
2.2
13.0
2.3
3.8
14.1
1.6
12.0

1.2
3.5
1.3
-2.2
-2.2
-0.8
1.1
3.9
-1.3
0

-1.8
-2.1
-1.5
-2.1
-3.4
-0.5
-0.7
-4.5
-2.5
-0.8
1.9
-1.0
0

-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
-0.8
-1.0
-0.2
0

-1.1
-1.8
-0.3
-1.3
-3.2
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
0.0
-0.6
-0.2
0

101.00

100.70

110.30

100.30

91.60

90.40

86.20

81.10

75.60

72.60

69.20

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

106

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Finland: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

5.171
150.5
218.7
1.77
55.3

5.237
171.4
204.5
1.66
54.2

5.351
179.7
205.8
1.78
48.1

5.475
197.7
204.9
1.46
45.1

5.577
211.9
187.3
1.33
42.7

5.655
227.6
177.6
1.28
39.8

5.704
243.5
171.7
1.18
36.5

5.725
262.7
159.1
1.10
36.3

5.727
284.2
145.6
1.02
35.3

5.724
306.5
136.7
0.96
33.3

5.727
329.4
129.5
0.89
32.1

0.3
1.8
-0.6
0.0

0.4
1.7
-0.9
-2.8

0.2
1.4
-0.9
-1.2

0.0
1.5
-1.4
-1.4

17.4
11.5

21.4
12.5

27.8
15.5

32.5
16.5

36.4
17.2

39.1
17.2

41.7
17.1

44.2
16.8

46.9
16.5

49.3
16.1

51.2
15.6

4.8

2.7

1.4

1.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
38.0
28.5

81.0
94.2
99.8
37.8
32.1

79.4
98.0
104.6
39.2
32.6

72.5
84.4
92.6
37.5
30.5

70.0
73.4
84.1
34.3
29.3

64.6
64.8
79.0
31.3
27.7

61.3
59.3
71.9
28.7
26.0

57.4
55.0
67.9
27.3
25.0

54.7
51.6
62.7
26.7
24.3

52.3
48.7
58.8
26.1
23.6

50.7
46.0
54.8
25.7
23.0

-2.3
-0.2
0.4
0.3
1.4

-1.3
-2.8
-2.2
-1.3
-1.1

-1.3
-2.1
-1.5
-1.8
-1.2

-1.0
-1.3
-1.3
-0.5
-0.6

0.20
1.36
1.16
0.52
1.16
2.97

0.19
1.30
1.09
0.45
1.02
2.97

0.23
1.18
0.98
0.33
0.88
2.89

0.19
1.11
0.91
0.24
0.72
2.84

0.16
1.08
0.89
0.24
0.71
2.74

0.15
1.07
0.88
0.25
0.70
2.74

0.13
1.04
0.82
0.24
0.72
2.73

0.11
1.01
0.80
0.24
0.68
2.73

0.09
0.99
0.78
0.22
0.60
2.73

0.08
0.97
0.78
0.21
0.57
2.72

0.06
0.95
0.77
0.19
0.52
2.71

1.3
-1.4
-1.6
-4.5
-2.7
-0.3

-3.5
-0.9
-1.0
-3.3
-2.1
-0.5

-1.9
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0

-3.9
-0.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.6
0.0

28.4
0.3

28.3
0.4

31.8
3.9

34.1
6.1

38.5
10.8

38.6
11.2

37.7
11.4

39.2
11.6

43.3
12.2

45.5
12.5

47.8
13.5

69968
22513
12452
587
10816
8860
14660
78
2
0
0
16417
2687
2883
2841
39
3
0
10846
8280
0
5041
2807
978
2021
0
0

70572
23305
10998
500
11921
9891
13784
170
3
0
0
16650
2690
3080
2994
82
4
0
10880
7745
0
4797
2771
907
2405
0
0

80667
22875
20827
484
11847
11413
12922
294
5
0
0
16817
2691
3280
3102
171
7
0
10847
8587
0
4379
2866
970
2632
0
0

80001
36692
7304
49
9547
11196
14199
1008
6
0
0
18612
4320
3763
3345
411
7
0
10529
8355
0
3972
2759
907
2890
0
0

80083
37782
4995
34
8084
11523
13640
3978
48
0
0
19970
4321
4949
3361
1538
50
0
10701
8321
0
3800
2538
777
3586
0
0

91554
46634
5174
22
9165
11168
13782
5561
48
0
0
20766
5349
5575
3372
2153
50
0
9842
7745
0
3014
2475
765
3588
0
0

100382
59443
4452
22
6043
9501
14157
6706
58
0
0
22245
6843
6057
3441
2556
60
0
9346
7425
0
3014
2427
616
3288
0
0

104941
61454
4066
71
5450
12633
14307
6902
58
0
0
23355
7095
6195
3499
2636
60
0
10066
8139
0
2833
2438
609
4186
0
0

110154
58155
2624
65
5726
17582
14952
10984
67
0
0
24667
6733
7731
3647
4015
70
0
10203
7596
0
1917
3008
425
4853
0
0

117468
61092
2010
55
5936
20081
15397
12830
67
0
0
26025
7096
8434
3718
4646
70
0
10496
7629
0
1379
3421
83
5613
0
0

123273
62393
857
126
5632
23081
15874
15243
67
0
0
28496
7247
9321
3796
5456
70
0
11928
7134
0
615
4808
17
6488
0
0

1.4
0.2
5.3
-1.9
0.9
2.6
-1.3
14.2
11.1
1.6
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.3
0.9
15.9
8.8
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
-1.4
0.2
-0.1
2.7
0.0
0.0

-0.1
5.1
-13.3
-23.4
-3.7
0.1
0.5
29.8
26.7
0.0
0.0
1.7
4.9
4.2
0.8
24.6
21.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
-1.4
-1.2
-2.2
3.1
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

46.8

46.5

52.4

46.9

43.9

48.0

49.2

48.8

48.5

49.0

47.0

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

39.4
36.4
0.0
65.9
32.2
33.7

37.0
38.9
0.0
66.8
33.0
33.8

37.5
36.2
0.0
58.9
28.4
30.5

23.7
26.7
0.0
78.9
45.9
33.0

22.9
27.1
0.0
83.6
47.2
36.4

24.0
26.4
0.0
84.3
50.9
33.4

20.2
19.3
0.0
89.5
59.2
30.3

21.0
20.9
0.0
90.9
58.6
32.3

23.5
23.4
0.0
92.4
52.8
39.6

25.3
23.8
0.0
93.2
52.0
41.2

27.2
23.9
0.0
94.6
50.6
44.0

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

80.0
7.7
56.6
3.9
7.7
4.2

87.0
7.5
62.8
4.0
8.8
3.8

89.9
7.5
65.7
4.5
8.5
3.7

93.8
7.8
67.8
4.8
9.7
3.8

97.8
8.0
69.7
5.1
11.1
3.9

101.3
8.2
70.8
5.4
12.9
4.0

104.9
8.3
71.7
5.8
15.1
4.1

108.1
8.4
72.9
6.0
16.7
4.1

111.4
8.6
73.9
6.3
18.5
4.2

114.0
8.6
74.7
6.5
20.0
4.3

116.7
8.7
75.4
6.6
21.6
4.3

1.2
-0.2
1.5
1.4
1.1
-1.2

0.8
0.6
0.6
1.4
2.7
0.6

0.7
0.3
0.3
1.1
3.1
0.3

0.5
0.3
0.3
0.7
1.8
0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

45.5
32.0
10.1
3.5

44.4
31.9
9.7
2.8

43.9
29.5
9.8
4.6

46.9
31.2
10.8
4.9

50.1
33.0
11.9
5.2

53.3
34.9
12.8
5.6

56.6
36.8
13.9
5.9

59.3
38.4
14.7
6.2

62.2
40.0
15.7
6.5

64.6
41.4
16.5
6.8

67.1
42.7
17.4
7.0

-0.4
-0.8
-0.4
2.8

1.3
1.1
2.0
1.3

1.2
1.1
1.6
1.2

0.9
0.8
1.1
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

4335
91
2270
1203
90
509
1720

4712
89
2460
1332
92
569
1700

4954
89
2584
1328
90
679
1830

4948
91
2496
1323
96
752
1890

4829
92
2277
1350
104
811
1950

4645
91
2021
1349
109
878
1980

4479
90
1847
1342
113
887
2000

4442
89
1774
1353
115
909
2030

4484
89
1740
1379
116
956
2050

4504
88
1721
1392
114
983
2060

4549
88
1713
1413
112
1016
2070

1.3
-0.2
1.3
1.0
0.0
2.9
0.6
0.0

-0.3
0.3
-1.3
0.2
1.5
1.8
0.6
0.0

-0.7
-0.3
-2.1
-0.1
0.8
0.9
0.3
0.0

0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

2.3
1.0
4.6
0.2
-1.1
-7.9
-4.1
9.1
-2.9
-0.4
-1.9
4.5
0.4
0.6
5.4
4.2
1.8
0.8
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.2
4.7
0.3
2.0
2.2
0.2
0.5
5.2
3.9
1.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
-1.3
1.2
-1.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-7.6
-0.4
3.5
-2.3
-16.5
-0.9
3.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

107

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

France: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

129847
2482
2013
1505
107093
16754
5773
10831
7
17
126

136034
383
1544
909
116474
16724
4449
12040
83
22
130

134775
162
1467
646
110539
21962
5332
15574
857
108
91

136586
87
0
0
111401
25098
5528
15966
1942
1292
370

132493
0
0
0
99077
33416
5567
19326
5697
2472
353

131307
0
0
0
94132
37174
5623
19291
8876
3038
347

133213
0
0
0
94071
39142
5831
18463
10769
3739
340

135099
0
0
0
93566
41533
6566
17785
11505
4240
1436

135408
0
0
0
91144
44264
6701
18358
12096
5270
1839

137900
0
0
0
92144
45756
6727
17931
13503
5579
2016

133396
0
0
0
87863
45533
6784
16491
14409
5639
2210

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

134424
13005
91607
85671
5936
35778
-5974

144391
13511
95403
85568
9835
40720
-5187

133605
12162
84371
65651
18720
39553
-2644

131778
9833
80073
63937
16137
43254
-4739

118838
6728
74138
60152
13986
38605
-5049

114567
5796
71662
58470
13192
36606
-4418

109307
4842
69954
57542
12411
33312
-3676

106427
3858
68203
56627
11576
32213
-2768

104731
3687
67296
56164
11132
30857
-2181

105862
5436
67015
56156
10859
30704
-2107

108113
6372
66867
56275
10592
31702
-1636

-0.1
-0.7
-0.8
-2.6
12.2
1.0
-7.8

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

257777
15048
89084
35766
107093
-5974
16761

276545
14303
93261
41025
116474
-5187
16669

268530
12046
83925
42540
110539
-2644
22124

265645
9920
77368
43240
111401
-4739
28456

248480
6728
71346
38546
99077
-5049
37832

242947
5796
68858
36485
94132
-4418
42095

239553
4842
67140
33159
94071
-3676
44018

238536
3858
65440
31987
93566
-2768
46454

237092
3687
64562
30545
91144
-2181
49336

240620
5436
64253
30323
92144
-2107
50571

238241
6372
64059
31241
87863
-1636
50341

5.8
34.6
13.9
41.5
6.5

5.2
33.7
14.8
42.1
6.0

4.5
31.3
15.8
41.2
8.2

3.7
29.1
16.3
41.9
10.7

2.7
28.7
15.5
39.9
15.2

2.4
28.3
15.0
38.7
17.3

2.0
28.0
13.8
39.3
18.4

1.6
27.4
13.4
39.2
19.5

1.6
27.2
12.9
38.4
20.8

2.3
26.7
12.6
38.3
21.0

2.7
26.9
13.1
36.9
21.1

535958
56172

571395
60388

564088
61728

591166
62283

583539
58064

605085
60378

631997
63638

649190
67116

671005
70584

711403
76942

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

13379
6559
1241
4034
1545
0
0

17097
6402
2185
6298
2212
0
0

16920
4717
1638
8178
2387
0
0

16487
3825
749
7883
3881
151
0

13937
1113
80
8070
4524
151
0

12851
727
127
6634
5211
151
0

10747
0
158
4938
5500
151
0

10524
0
139
3101
6033
1251
0

11262
0
109
2558
6934
1661
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

205489
91164
329
312
113684

211643
88602
400
271
122371

191882
74262
2420
261
114939

187680
68737
2826
456
115661

171550
64177
3596
828
102949

164609
62465
3674
949
97521

163373
61518
3828
941
97087

160582
60497
3879
970
95235

157311
59931
3871
829
92681

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

0.4
-0.2
-23.9 -100.0
-3.1 -100.0
-8.1 -100.0
0.3
-1.1
2.7
4.3
-0.8
0.4
3.7
2.2
62.6
20.9
20.3
36.8
-3.2
14.5

0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
1.6
0.5
-0.5
6.6
4.2
-0.4

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.8
0.8
-0.6
1.5
2.1
9.8

-1.2
-5.7
-1.3
-0.9
-2.9
-0.2
6.7

-0.8
-3.2
-0.6
-0.4
-1.2
-1.5
-3.1

-0.1
1.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-4.0

0.4
-2.2
-0.6
1.7
0.3
-7.8
2.8

-0.8
-5.7
-1.6
-1.0
-1.1
6.7
5.5

-0.4
-3.2
-0.6
-1.5
-0.5
-3.1
1.5

0.0
1.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-4.0
0.7

724782
79391

0.5
0.9

0.3
-0.6

0.8
0.9

0.7
1.1

13091
1845
141
2135
7131
1839
0

13354
2119
198
1948
7041
2049
0

2.4
-3.2
2.8
7.3
4.4
0.0
0.0

-1.9
-2.6
-13.4 -100.0
-26.1
7.1
-0.1
-4.8
6.6
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

1.1
0.0
1.1
-4.5
1.2
13.9
0.0

158158
59873
4017
667
93601

155165
59966
4296
581
90322

-0.7
-2.0
22.1
-1.8
0.1

-1.1
-1.4
4.0
12.2
-1.1

-0.5
-0.4
0.6
1.3
-0.6

-0.3
-0.1
0.6
-2.4
-0.4

Energy Branch Consumption

10830

9975

10242

8311

7581

7321

7339

7109

7144

7452

7693

-0.6

-3.0

-0.3

0.2

Non-Energy Uses

16225

14528

11996

11920

12023

12194

12351

12346

12047

11958

11946

-3.0

0.0

0.3

-0.2

154489

162383

158771

158093

151406

150106

147937

147181

147692

149698

150949

0.3

-0.5

-0.2

0.1

37170
21437
15733
39680
26957
50682

36628
22084
14544
46584
28648
50522

31242
18407
12834
46298
30914
50317

32919
19741
13178
45651
28648
50875

33187
19567
13620
43207
26621
48392

32835
18499
14337
42618
27313
47340

33561
18667
14893
40703
26416
47258

32948
17932
15016
40077
26993
47163

33228
17628
15600
39468
27326
47671

34356
17998
16358
38854
28287
48200

35234
18026
17208
37552
29124
49038

-1.7
-1.5
-2.0
1.6
1.4
-0.1

0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.7
-1.5
-0.4

0.1
-0.5
0.9
-0.6
-0.1
-0.2

0.2
-0.2
0.7
-0.4
0.5
0.2

5775
72354
30907
33096
3236
9123
0

5219
73261
33744
36352
4163
9644
0

4496
66723
32478
38185
3654
13236
0

3899
62220
32561
39892
3520
16000
2

3600
57112
27963
39377
3312
20036
6

3287
54806
27091
41691
3392
19828
11

3264
53054
25267
44446
3198
18678
30

3100
51504
25417
46497
2998
17602
62

2983
51067
24526
48606
2918
17476
116

2916
50870
24679
51540
2767
16760
167

2883
50807
26101
52915
2649
15389
205

-2.5
-0.8
0.5
1.4
1.2
3.8
0.0

-2.2
-1.5
-1.5
0.3
-1.0
4.2
0.0

-1.0
-0.7
-1.0
1.2
-0.3
-0.7
17.8

-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.9
-0.9
-1.0
10.1

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

15207

15818

21137

27317

36520

41288

42954

44027

46263

47289

47136

3.3

5.6

1.6

0.5

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

571.5

532.2
147.1
385.1
368.1
48.1
16.5
61.5
57.5
42.0
142.6
23.4
140.8

499.9
143.8
356.1
343.4
42.1
15.0
57.4
51.6
34.6
142.8
26.8
129.6

454.6
124.5
330.1
300.8
29.2
13.4
50.6
44.4
31.1
132.2
27.5
126.3

435.0
116.6
318.5
283.9
23.8
12.7
46.9
42.8
30.0
127.7
27.1
124.0

411.3
103.3
308.0
266.1
15.7
12.5
46.9
40.2
25.0
125.8
22.0
123.2

393.7
90.2
303.5
250.4
7.7
10.9
44.4
37.9
24.7
124.8
20.8
122.5

386.4
87.5
298.9
244.1
5.6
10.7
43.1
34.4
24.5
125.8
20.1
122.2

371.1
73.4
297.7
242.9
4.9
10.7
44.5
31.4
24.7
126.6
4.8
123.4

374.3
73.3
301.0
246.4
4.2
11.9
48.5
28.2
25.6
128.0
2.9
125.0

-0.7

389.0
46.8
19.9
76.4
53.5
43.5
149.0
28.7
153.8

572.5
174.8
397.8
400.2
53.7
16.3
73.7
64.9
42.6
149.0
27.9
144.4

-0.6
0.3
-1.8
-2.1
0.7
-0.3
-0.4
-2.0
-0.9
0

-1.6
-1.7
-1.5
-2.0
-4.9
-2.0
-1.9
-2.5
-3.0
-0.8
1.6
-1.1
0

-1.0
-1.8
-0.7
-1.2
-6.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
-2.1
-0.5
-2.2
-0.2
0

-0.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.4
-6.4
-0.2
0.2
-1.8
0.1
0.1
-9.6
0.1
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

100.70

100.90

93.80

88.10

80.10

76.70

72.50

69.40

68.10

65.40

65.90

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

Source: PRIMES

108

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

France: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

58.858
1726.6
149.3
1.51
51.6

60.963
1869.7
147.9
1.45
51.7

62.791
1932.8
138.9
1.37
49.3

64.387
2081.3
127.6
1.29
49.1

65.808
2256.9
110.1
1.21
47.3

67.077
2483.4
97.8
1.17
46.6

68.223
2698.9
88.8
1.11
45.1

69.237
2918.6
81.7
1.05
44.1

70.056
3163.4
74.9
1.03
43.6

70.628
3425.8
70.2
1.01
43.4

71.029
3703.3
64.3
1.03
44.8

0.6
1.1
-0.7
-1.0

0.5
1.6
-2.3
-1.2

0.4
1.8
-2.1
-0.9

0.2
1.6
-1.6
-0.4

159.7
9.2

185.6
9.9

214.2
11.1

255.8
12.3

286.4
12.7

303.1
12.2

312.9
11.6

323.8
11.1

337.3
10.7

351.4
10.3

367.8
9.9

3.0

2.9

0.9

0.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
40.6
46.2

93.9
106.1
98.2
40.6
42.5

84.5
99.0
99.5
39.9
42.3

82.7
91.0
85.5
37.7
41.8

77.1
79.8
73.1
33.6
39.0

69.0
71.8
68.0
30.1
36.3

65.4
63.2
60.3
27.4
34.9

60.3
57.6
56.7
26.0
33.9

56.9
52.4
52.8
25.2
32.9

55.1
47.6
50.3
24.8
32.1

53.6
42.5
47.7
24.4
31.7

-1.7
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.9

-0.9
-2.1
-3.0
-1.7
-0.8

-1.6
-2.3
-1.9
-2.0
-1.1

-1.0
-2.0
-1.2
-0.6
-0.5

0.08
2.09
2.05
1.35
1.61
2.94

0.09
2.03
2.01
1.39
1.49
2.95

0.08
1.91
1.97
1.24
1.36
2.83

0.07
1.81
1.74
1.13
1.21
2.81

0.05
1.71
1.52
1.03
1.17
2.73

0.04
1.65
1.43
1.00
1.10
2.70

0.02
1.61
1.40
0.99
0.95
2.66

0.01
1.57
1.35
0.95
0.92
2.65

0.01
1.54
1.30
0.87
0.90
2.64

0.01
1.52
1.30
0.81
0.87
2.63

0.01
1.53
1.38
0.75
0.88
2.61

-0.3
-0.9
-0.4
-0.8
-1.7
-0.4

-5.1
-1.1
-2.5
-1.9
-1.5
-0.4

-6.7
-0.6
-0.9
-0.4
-2.1
-0.3

-7.0
-0.3
-0.1
-1.4
-0.4
-0.1

9.4
1.2

9.3
1.3

12.7
6.0

16.6
7.1

23.2
10.2

26.4
11.5

27.8
12.6

28.5
13.1

29.8
13.4

30.0
13.8

29.6
14.6

536054
415162
27004
7165
15370
3561
67137
77
5
573
0
107928
63235
20641
20568
66
7
0
24052
7013
0
9300
5102
8244
1406
0
0

571497
451529
27515
7925
26259
5016
51747
962
11
534
0
107789
63258
21412
20642
757
13
0
23119
6766
0
7871
5784
7903
1561
0
0

564190
428521
23359
5821
26614
6800
62013
9969
564
529
0
116297
63258
28037
20934
5970
893
240
25002
5178
0
6918
8548
7869
1667
0
0

591166
431786
15150
1134
39019
10740
64278
22584
5703
772
0
126380
63258
36371
21260
10238
4630
243
26751
5934
0
5237
11786
7686
2023
0
20

583539
384218
4761
408
36002
15704
64736
66248
10281
1181
0
142781
62857
54827
21260
25687
7470
410
25096
6474
0
3438
11690
6689
3258
0
20

605085
365240
3104
474
31132
20336
65386
103204
14465
1743
0
148630
54670
71194
21260
39363
9931
639
22766
6967
0
2378
11573
4535
4260
0
20

631997
369072
0
411
24040
21100
67806
125218
22385
1965
0
163303
54021
83757
21760
47354
13913
730
25525
6467
0
0
17503
3743
4260
0
20

649190
371113
0
728
9148
27599
76347
133784
27164
3307
0
170373
54294
91137
24018
50230
16134
755
24942
6322
0
0
18081
2141
4554
0
166

671005
369140
0
556
6649
32583
77919
140649
39585
3924
0
184242
53958
101021
24131
52764
23313
812
29263
7228
258
0
17731
5465
5847
0
220

711403
377857
11087
619
7694
31400
78225
157006
42329
5186
0
198911
55204
108307
24161
58470
24433
1242
35401
7727
1386
1128
20670
6946
6413
0
244

724782
374092
12713
725
7758
33342
78887
167548
44219
5499
0
205431
54573
112542
24333
61781
25157
1271
38316
6962
1795
1297
21164
8719
6863
0
272

0.3
0.8
-1.1
-0.4
-14.7 -100.0
-23.3
0.1
3.1
-4.0
8.7
3.0
0.4
0.5
20.9
6.6
33.7
8.1
8.4
5.2
0.0
0.0
2.1
1.4
-0.1
-1.5
6.9
4.3
0.2
0.2
15.7
6.3
23.7
6.4
5.5
5.9
0.0
0.2
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.8 -100.0
3.2
4.1
-1.6
-5.6
6.9
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.7
0.1
0.0
2.9
-5.5
2.3
0.8
1.5
3.5
5.3
0.0
1.2
0.1
1.5
0.6
1.3
3.0
2.8
2.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.0
4.3
2.4
0.0
13.9

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

54.2

57.8

53.0

51.2

44.9

44.9

42.7

42.0

40.2

39.3

38.8

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

34.1
3.0
0.0
90.8
77.4
13.3

33.6
4.0
0.0
89.2
79.0
10.2

31.8
2.8
0.0
90.1
76.0
14.2

34.5
3.2
0.0
90.6
73.0
17.6

35.2
3.2
0.0
92.9
65.8
27.1

37.0
5.0
0.0
94.3
60.4
33.9

36.6
3.6
0.0
96.1
58.4
37.7

31.8
4.2
0.0
98.5
57.2
41.3

31.9
4.2
0.3
98.9
55.0
43.9

34.8
4.0
1.8
97.3
53.1
44.2

36.7
4.3
2.3
97.1
51.6
45.5

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

895.5
43.0
699.2
80.7
69.1
3.5

930.0
44.0
732.7
88.6
61.5
3.1

959.3
49.9
741.2
99.3
65.9
3.0

998.6
52.6
764.9
104.6
73.3
3.1

1033.9
55.6
782.6
110.3
82.1
3.2

1102.3
58.8
825.4
123.1
91.6
3.4

1173.1
62.3
867.2
137.6
102.4
3.6

1226.7
65.1
896.9
150.7
110.2
3.8

1282.3
67.9
926.7
164.9
118.9
3.9

1325.5
70.0
950.6
175.5
125.4
4.0

1369.8
72.1
974.9
186.6
131.9
4.2

0.7
1.5
0.6
2.1
-0.5
-1.4

0.8
1.1
0.5
1.1
2.2
0.7

1.3
1.1
1.0
2.2
2.2
1.1

0.8
0.7
0.6
1.5
1.3
0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

304.6
204.0
57.7
42.9

292.9
205.3
40.7
46.9

277.1
182.2
30.0
65.0

307.9
201.9
37.5
68.5

342.2
223.0
47.0
72.2

380.3
246.1
57.5
76.6

422.6
271.0
70.2
81.4

437.6
280.9
73.4
83.3

453.3
291.2
76.8
85.4

465.9
299.8
79.3
86.8

478.6
308.7
81.7
88.3

-0.9
-1.1
-6.3
4.2

2.1
2.0
4.6
1.1

2.1
2.0
4.1
1.2

0.6
0.7
0.8
0.4

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

50435
693
28504
13082
1132
6683
3420

50234
710
29780
11666
979
6794
3060

49996
806
30321
10969
931
6659
3080

50538
841
29238
11966
1062
7110
3200

48039
867
25919
12251
1231
7438
3330

46970
888
24102
12556
1410
7664
3500

46870
909
23517
13275
1614
7188
3680

46764
926
23572
13347
1648
6894
3750

47260
949
23864
13374
1678
7012
3830

47781
964
24166
13415
1679
7168
3870

48610
982
24610
13649
1668
7311
3910

-0.1
1.5
0.6
-1.7
-1.9
0.0
-1.0
0.0

-0.4
0.7
-1.6
1.1
2.8
1.1
0.8
0.0

-0.2
0.5
-1.0
0.8
2.7
-0.3
1.0
0.0

0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

0.5
0.3
-1.4
-2.1
5.6
6.7
-0.8
62.6
59.7
-0.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
3.1
0.2
56.9
62.4
0.0
0.4
-3.0
0.0
-2.9
5.3
-0.5
1.7
0.0
0.0

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

109

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Germany: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

135698
60629
4719
15825
43750
10775
1869
7864
804
115
123

137004
56488
5877
14241
42061
18338
1684
13811
2341
353
148

132514
45125
4846
9694
36257
36593
1756
29606
3250
1452
529

117145
37417
3896
8597
24144
43091
1927
30417
5380
4247
1119

99062
30754
3107
8875
8074
48253
1966
30939
8153
5874
1320

89767
27058
2749
7240
0
52719
2075
30820
11385
7070
1368

77803
13658
2485
5961
0
55699
2229
30774
14023
7238
1435

76462
11582
1269
4480
0
59130
2254
31206
15431
7810
2428

71446
7454
616
2635
0
60741
2329
31788
15326
8598
2701

74819
4520
0
2395
0
67904
2402
33376
17173
9226
5727

76965
3679
0
2058
0
71228
2501
33343
18654
9543
7187

-0.2
-2.9
0.3
-4.8
-1.9
13.0
-0.6
14.2
15.0
28.8
15.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

205785
21663
126994
102682
24312
56865
263

213142
25734
122840
113690
9150
65734
-393

202567
31842
112090
93969
18120
60114
-1286

198540
28844
105465
89044
16422
63884
-114

187615
28258
96558
82001
14557
61876
135

178113
26100
89582
76725
12857
60989
475

175486
27584
84163
72850
11313
61573
884

166767
19087
80857
70929
9928
64852
1079

166894
16399
77685
68839
8846
70676
1479

163303
14736
76423
68190
8232
69500
2174

159464
13581
74887
67154
7733
68371
2204

-0.2
3.9
-1.2
-0.9
-2.9
0.6
0.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

343625
84802
132158
71878
43750
263
10775

345999
81731
124162
80873
42061
-393
17564

336101
77120
114204
73406
36257
-1286
36400

312657
66261
106344
72470
24144
-114
43552

283454
59012
96492
70700
8074
135
49041

264597
53158
89150
68128
0
475
53686

249915
41242
83410
67399
0
884
56980

239790
30670
78885
69133
0
1079
60023

234846
23854
75079
73037
0
1479
61397

234560
19257
73388
71368
0
2174
68374

232805
17260
71875
69817
0
2204
71649

-0.2
-0.9
-1.4
0.2
-1.9
0.0
12.9

24.7
38.5
20.9
12.7
3.1

23.6
35.9
23.4
12.2
5.1

22.9
34.0
21.8
10.8
10.8

21.2
34.0
23.2
7.7
13.9

20.8
34.0
24.9
2.8
17.3

20.1
33.7
25.7
0.0
20.3

16.5
33.4
27.0
0.0
22.8

12.8
32.9
28.8
0.0
25.0

10.2
32.0
31.1
0.0
26.1

8.2
31.3
30.4
0.0
29.1

7.4
30.9
30.0
0.0
30.8

572210
73946

613328
70749

620878
62205

603045
59216

586628
54095

583111
51809

590722
50424

593513
49892

600618
49590

613420
50859

631337
51780

0.8
-1.7

-0.6
-1.4

0.1
-0.7

0.3
0.1

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

84557
67101
1407
12891
3158
0
0

88631
65728
2035
15930
4938
0
0

94600
59887
802
19263
14625
24
0

80615
50029
184
16716
13266
420
0

77615
44093
271
19409
13404
439
0

73708
39458
446
20099
13263
441
0

63772
28080
270
20813
14128
481
0

59465
18859
260
24677
14241
1429
0

58769
13021
269
29410
14421
1648
0

58102
9296
264
28261
15631
4649
0

57197
7780
384
26574
16314
6145
0

1.1
-1.1
-5.5
4.1
16.6
0.0
0.0

-2.0
-3.0
-10.3
0.1
-0.9
33.8
0.0

-1.9
-4.4
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.0

-0.5
-6.2
1.8
1.2
0.7
13.6
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

181613
120741
225
1198
59450

190786
127817
1941
4323
56704

164954
105667
2960
4781
51545

143980
98872
3503
4367
37239

118556
90919
3930
3556
20151

103136
85197
3788
2956
11196

98641
81046
3883
2767
10945

95383
78670
3990
2481
10242

91617
76330
4060
1811
9416

90046
75468
4296
1895
8386

88915
74386
4505
1923
8101

-1.0
-1.3
29.4
14.8
-1.4

-3.2
-1.5
2.9
-2.9
-9.0

-1.8
-1.1
-0.1
-2.5
-5.9

-0.5
-0.4
0.7
-1.8
-1.5

Energy Branch Consumption

14565

14389

12920

11968

10572

9604

8827

8259

7726

7441

7253

-1.2

-2.0

-1.8

-1.0

Non-Energy Uses

31195

31327

29737

30940

30990

30223

29426

28597

27917

27488

27550

-0.5

0.4

-0.5

-0.3

219083

222407

217362

214610

201105

192650

187218

181703

178909

178575

176937

-0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.3

57553
39352
18200
63023
32572
65936

59012
40503
18509
67784
33238
62373

60541
41407
19134
62041
32886
61894

61024
41847
19177
61070
31505
61011

59669
40826
18843
56837
27653
56946

57172
38856
18315
55630
26276
53573

55327
37514
17814
55363
25146
51383

52929
35893
17036
54783
24409
49581

50938
34364
16574
55404
23880
48687

49832
33493
16339
56743
23746
48254

49151
32904
16246
56815
22839
48133

0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.2
0.1
-0.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8

-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0

-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
0.1
-0.5
-0.3

10958
98722
56064
41569
6831
4939
0

9857
88873
59919
44794
10735
8228
0

9620
82458
54053
45482
11303
14445
0

9288
76438
54133
45527
12069
17138
17

8948
67246
50217
44933
11714
17998
48

8366
61483
46678
45246
11592
19195
90

8136
56856
45274
46560
11394
18830
168

7215
53454
43054
46973
11419
19315
273

6697
50743
41749
47917
11186
20188
430

6367
49650
40672
49498
11093
20714
581

6003
48466
40298
50870
10802
19787
712

-1.3
-1.8
-0.4
0.9
5.2
11.3
-7.5

-0.7
-2.0
-0.7
-0.1
0.4
2.2
171.1

-0.9
-1.7
-1.0
0.4
-0.3
0.5
13.3

-1.5
-0.8
-0.6
0.4
-0.3
0.2
7.5

8828

13949

24372

35026

40002

44830

48166

51710

53132

57602

60242

10.7

5.1

1.9

1.1

1059.7

958.9
507.9
451.0
780.8
322.4
24.8
112.3
102.1
46.2
172.9
56.7
121.4

878.3
459.6
418.7
706.0
263.2
22.4
116.3
92.8
42.7
168.7
60.6
111.8

806.7
427.8
378.9
640.5
243.7
19.9
105.6
82.1
34.8
154.4
60.7
105.6

750.1
399.6
350.6
589.3
224.9
18.4
96.5
76.1
29.5
144.1
59.5
101.3

669.4
342.4
327.0
521.7
176.9
17.6
94.4
72.6
23.7
136.6
52.7
95.0

593.0
283.9
309.1
455.9
138.1
16.1
81.5
68.9
20.8
130.4
43.9
93.2

557.3
259.5
297.8
423.8
124.0
14.9
72.6
66.4
18.7
127.2
41.7
91.8

513.1
221.9
291.2
394.5
103.6
13.9
68.7
66.2
17.1
125.1
27.5
91.1

482.1
199.8
282.3
378.1
93.8
13.4
67.2
65.0
14.6
124.1
13.6
90.4

-1.0

848.5
330.6
28.1
130.1
119.0
53.2
187.4
63.8
147.4

1030.3
543.8
486.5
838.5
342.5
27.9
115.2
123.2
52.5
177.2
61.7
130.0

-0.8
-0.3
-1.3
-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
-0.8
-1.2
-1.9
0

-1.7
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
-2.8
-2.2
-0.6
-2.2
-2.8
-1.1
0.7
-1.4
0

-1.8
-2.2
-1.5
-2.0
-3.2
-1.2
-1.1
-1.2
-3.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.1
0

-1.6
-2.7
-0.7
-1.6
-3.1
-1.3
-1.7
-0.6
-2.4
-0.5
-6.5
-0.2
0

84.20

81.90

76.20

69.80

64.10

59.60

53.20

47.10

44.30

40.80

38.30

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-2.9
-2.4
-0.1
-3.8
-7.8
-6.3
-4.3
-2.2 -100.0
-0.9
-3.9
-5.2
-13.9 -100.0
0.0
2.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.3
0.6
0.4
-0.1
0.4
9.6
5.6
1.4
15.0
2.1
1.4
9.6
0.8
8.4
-0.8
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
-2.2
0.3
0.0

-0.7
-0.2
-1.4
-1.2
-2.5
0.0
20.7

-0.5
-3.5
-0.6
-0.4
-1.9
0.5
4.7

-1.7
-1.3
-2.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.4
-0.4
-0.5
-13.9 -100.0
0.0
20.7
3.0
1.5

-0.4
-4.3
-0.7
0.2
0.0
4.7
1.2

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)
TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions
TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES

110

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Germany: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

82.163
2257.7
152.2
2.47
59.5

82.501
2325.9
148.8
2.42
61.2

81.802
2476.8
135.7
2.32
59.8

80.954
2673.6
116.9
2.26
62.9

80.098
2801.8
101.2
2.26
65.4

79.078
2915.1
90.8
2.23
66.5

77.872
2997.7
83.4
2.09
69.3

76.478
3074.3
78.0
1.90
68.6

74.815
3185.2
73.7
1.80
70.0

72.914
3326.6
70.5
1.68
68.6

70.807
3465.8
67.2
1.62
67.4

0.0
0.9
-1.1
-0.6

-0.2
1.2
-2.9
-0.3

-0.3
0.7
-1.9
-0.8

-0.5
0.7
-1.1
-1.2

226.4
10.0

298.6
12.8

313.9
12.7

373.2
14.0

408.3
14.6

411.7
14.1

418.4
14.0

419.0
13.6

424.5
13.3

437.2
13.1

447.2
12.9

3.3

2.7

0.2

0.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
43.2
46.3

95.7
105.9
96.9
41.2
36.5

101.8
94.6
86.6
40.0
34.9

94.7
88.5
76.7
37.9
33.5

89.3
79.4
64.0
33.8
31.1

83.6
75.1
58.1
30.7
28.8

79.6
72.7
53.8
28.4
27.3

75.5
70.0
50.7
26.7
26.4

71.4
67.9
47.6
25.8
25.4

68.6
65.8
45.0
25.4
24.7

66.2
62.2
41.3
25.1
24.3

0.2
-0.5
-1.4
-0.8
-2.8

-1.3
-1.7
-3.0
-1.7
-1.2

-1.1
-0.9
-1.7
-1.7
-1.3

-0.9
-0.8
-1.3
-0.6
-0.6

0.50
2.24
2.26
1.89
1.63
2.84

0.46
2.10
1.95
1.82
1.58
2.84

0.42
1.99
1.86
1.65
1.41
2.79

0.35
1.96
1.91
1.52
1.36
2.76

0.33
1.87
1.77
1.44
1.26
2.71

0.31
1.80
1.69
1.37
1.12
2.69

0.24
1.75
1.71
1.31
0.94
2.66

0.19
1.66
1.54
1.26
0.85
2.63

0.17
1.59
1.42
1.20
0.78
2.61

0.14
1.55
1.38
1.17
0.72
2.59

0.12
1.53
1.37
1.14
0.64
2.58

-1.7
-1.1
-2.0
-1.4
-1.5
-0.2

-2.4
-0.6
-0.5
-1.3
-1.1
-0.3

-3.1
-0.7
-0.4
-1.0
-2.9
-0.2

-3.3
-0.7
-1.1
-0.7
-1.9
-0.2

3.9
0.7

6.0
3.3

10.8
6.1

15.8
7.8

19.3
10.4

22.6
11.8

25.0
13.3

27.6
14.3

28.8
14.7

31.2
15.7

33.0
16.5

572313
169606
296687
4785
59970
10121
21732
9352
60
0
0
112920
21339
10495
4268
6113
114
0
81086
14369
0
51950
20352
6909
1875
0
0

613438
163055
297517
10583
77602
16589
19581
27229
1282
0
0
123274
20718
24081
4158
18415
1508
0
78475
16511
0
50207
19208
6623
2436
0
1

620989
140556
262573
8361
96744
42825
20427
37793
11681
29
0
149666
20379
48769
4258
27191
17320
0
80518
18551
0
48405
23623
5164
3318
0
8

603045
93583
228036
1145
104747
54454
22411
62564
35617
488
0
169056
12015
75907
4949
35600
35357
0
81135
21674
0
47038
26473
3796
3772
0
56

586628
31294
202629
1643
124457
57456
22860
94798
50981
510
0
192877
6808
103239
5195
48956
49089
0
82830
25283
0
45041
29422
3470
4839
0
58

583111
0
179599
2706
131121
57861
24132
132385
54794
513
0
199865
0
118432
5503
60343
52585
0
81433
25152
0
40616
31846
3044
5869
0
59

590722
0
135186
1616
144061
64423
25917
163062
55897
560
0
210791
0
129281
5748
69949
53584
0
81510
25119
0
33929
38591
2180
6747
0
64

593513
0
84108
1599
175436
66123
26213
179435
58937
1661
0
220607
0
137979
6085
75556
56338
0
82628
25879
1111
29993
43169
1851
7425
0
190

600618
0
47995
1684
207233
67845
27082
178204
68660
1916
0
230711
0
146943
6417
75584
64943
0
83768
25862
1285
25776
46745
1826
9202
0
219

613420
0
34618
1721
200457
70416
27931
199690
73182
5406
0
241298
0
158277
6877
83149
68251
0
83021
25154
1291
21046
49773
1663
9922
0
617

631337
0
31031
2462
191051
74454
29086
216911
79197
7145
0
258109
0
170859
7193
89394
74272
0
87250
26429
1291
19419
52145
2224
12646
0
816

-0.6
0.1
-13.9 -100.0
-2.6
-4.0
-15.0
-0.2
2.6
1.5
3.0
1.2
1.1
1.3
9.6
5.6
15.9
0.9
33.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
2.6
0.9
-10.4 -100.0
7.8
2.3
2.0
1.0
6.1
3.6
11.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.2
3.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-2.8
2.2
2.7
-3.9
-4.5
3.8
3.4
0.0
0.0
22.0
0.9

0.3
0.0
-7.1
2.1
1.4
0.7
0.6
1.4
1.8
13.6
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.6
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
-2.8
1.5
0.1
3.2
0.0
13.6

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

54.0

53.2

44.8

38.5

33.1

31.9

30.9

29.8

28.9

28.3

27.3

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

37.8
10.6
0.0
36.8
29.6
7.2

39.0
12.6
0.0
37.1
26.6
10.5

37.3
13.2
0.0
40.8
22.6
18.2

41.5
21.9
0.0
44.6
15.5
29.1

42.8
24.8
0.0
44.0
5.3
38.6

43.4
25.6
0.0
46.2
0.0
46.2

46.6
25.2
0.0
52.5
0.0
52.5

47.6
26.1
1.6
56.0
0.0
56.0

47.8
24.0
1.8
57.2
0.0
57.2

46.3
23.8
1.7
61.4
0.0
61.4

46.0
23.4
1.7
64.4
0.0
64.4

1065.5
69.0
849.6
90.0
54.7
2.2

1096.9
67.1
875.7
90.4
61.7
2.0

1126.3
61.8
904.7
99.4
58.5
2.0

1162.6
64.1
920.2
109.7
66.5
2.0

1199.2
66.5
933.8
121.0
76.0
2.1

1226.9
67.7
940.8
130.7
85.6
2.1

1251.4
69.2
942.3
141.4
96.5
2.1

1269.4
70.9
944.5
149.4
102.5
2.1

1288.6
72.6
946.6
158.1
109.1
2.2

1302.0
73.2
948.1
165.2
113.2
2.2

1314.7
73.9
949.4
172.0
117.2
2.2

0.6
-1.1
0.6
1.0
0.7
-1.4

0.6
0.7
0.3
2.0
2.6
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.1
1.6
2.4
0.2

0.2
0.3
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.2

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

431.2
280.7
82.7
67.8

470.5
310.1
95.4
64.9

483.4
313.1
107.3
63.0

505.7
322.8
117.0
65.9

529.1
332.5
127.6
69.0

554.1
344.1
137.7
72.3

580.1
355.8
148.7
75.7

593.4
361.8
154.2
77.5

607.2
367.8
160.1
79.3

615.7
372.4
162.8
80.4

623.8
377.2
165.0
81.6

1.2
1.1
2.6
-0.7

0.9
0.6
1.7
0.9

0.9
0.7
1.5
0.9

0.4
0.3
0.5
0.4

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

65928
1040
37017
18303
1943
7345
2810

62373
992
35410
15555
1830
8265
3210

61896
893
34934
15272
1818
8719
2600

61010
919
33025
15229
1947
9619
2710

56945
931
28663
14611
2056
10402
2820

53572
911
25416
14034
2162
10757
2910

51382
894
23608
13872
2247
10461
2990

49580
892
22764
13649
2266
9707
3020

48686
895
22311
13440
2252
9485
3040

48253
887
22016
13338
2181
9528
3030

48132
881
21800
13339
2100
9710
3010

-0.6
-1.5
-0.6
-1.8
-0.7
1.7
-0.7
0.0

-0.8
0.4
-2.0
-0.4
1.2
1.8
0.8
0.0

-1.0
-0.4
-1.9
-0.5
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.0

-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

0.8
-1.9
-1.2
5.7
4.9
15.5
-0.6
15.0
69.4
119.0
0.0
2.9
-0.5
16.6
0.0
16.1
65.3
0.0
-0.1
2.6
0.0
-0.7
1.5
-2.9
5.9
0.0
0.0

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

111

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Greece: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

10011
8222
281
42
0
1466
318
1009
39
99
2

10323
8538
101
18
0
1666
431
1015
109
101
10

9473
7315
133
7
0
2017
641
919
233
197
27

9493
6759
95
0
0
2638
501
982
451
659
45

8937
5646
62
0
0
3229
598
1094
755
728
55

7147
3526
0
0
0
3621
697
1224
831
807
63

5612
1454
0
0
0
4158
775
1186
838
884
475

6574
434
0
0
0
6140
826
1337
1296
1183
1498

7702
285
0
0
0
7417
853
1408
1689
1376
2092

7869
233
0
0
0
7636
861
1475
1717
1384
2199

8165
98
0
0
0
8067
865
1504
1795
1465
2437

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

22119
769
19663
20561
-898
1689
-1

23473
364
20451
19474
977
2332
325

21805
401
17511
20726
-3215
3231
491

21037
268
17308
21334
-4026
2617
452

20760
268
16303
20289
-3986
3084
361

20942
240
15311
19309
-3998
4091
469

21528
216
14712
18667
-3955
5233
546

21020
203
14358
18238
-3879
4964
541

20148
192
14145
17932
-3787
4299
509

20148
182
13893
17605
-3712
4641
448

20224
177
13764
16659
-2895
4940
395

-0.1
-6.3
-1.2
0.1
13.6
6.7
0.0

-0.5
-4.0
-0.7
-0.2
2.2
-0.5
-3.0

0.4
-2.1
-1.0
-0.8
-0.1
5.4
4.2

-0.3
-1.0
-0.3
-0.6
-1.5
-0.3
-1.6

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

28265
9038
16058
1705
0
-1
1466

31387
8944
18098
2354
0
325
1666

28841
7863
15064
3234
0
491
2190

27660
7027
14544
2606
0
452
3031

26707
5914
13416
3041
0
361
3974

25025
3766
12336
4002
0
469
4453

24078
1670
11759
5123
0
546
4979

24467
637
11389
4806
0
541
7093

24650
477
11128
4115
0
509
8421

24778
414
10867
4429
0
448
8620

25104
274
10730
4689
0
395
9016

0.2
-1.4
-0.6
6.6
0.0
0.0
4.1

-0.8
-2.8
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
-3.0
6.1

-1.0
-11.9
-1.3
5.4
0.0
4.2
2.3

0.2
-8.6
-0.5
-0.4
0.0
-1.6
3.0

32.0
56.8
6.0
0.0
5.2

28.5
57.7
7.5
0.0
5.3

27.3
52.2
11.2
0.0
7.6

25.4
52.6
9.4
0.0
11.0

22.1
50.2
11.4
0.0
14.9

15.0
49.3
16.0
0.0
17.8

6.9
48.8
21.3
0.0
20.7

2.6
46.5
19.6
0.0
29.0

1.9
45.1
16.7
0.0
34.2

1.7
43.9
17.9
0.0
34.8

1.1
42.7
18.7
0.0
35.9

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

53415
8430

59416
10124

57356
7796

56439
6925

59454
6787

57755
6088

57480
5562

60777
5470

63733
5555

66524
5812

69511
6026

0.7
-0.8

0.4
-1.4

-0.3
-2.0

1.0
0.4

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

11606
8170
2092
1280
64
0
0

12532
8694
2180
1605
52
0
0

11075
7567
1369
2061
79
0
0

9138
6745
1118
1188
86
1
0

8071
5627
716
1580
142
6
0

6615
3471
584
2421
133
6
0

5892
1376
480
3493
129
414
0

5559
428
328
3073
295
1435
0

5260
289
265
2347
330
2030
0

5564
238
213
2647
329
2137
0

5813
103
201
2829
302
2378
0

-0.5
-0.8
-4.2
4.9
2.2
0.0
0.0

-3.1
-2.9
-6.3
-2.6
6.0
0.0
0.0

-3.1
-13.1
-3.9
8.3
-0.9
52.0
0.0

-0.1
-12.1
-4.3
-1.0
4.4
9.1
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

22535
22474
0
0
61

21614
21521
0
0
93

22768
22640
128
0
0

22323
22016
307
0
1

21639
21048
589
0
1

20551
20003
545
0
2

19877
19361
513
0
3

19438
18927
507
0
3

19100
18599
497
0
4

18757
18242
511
0
4

17830
17275
550
0
5

0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.5
-0.7
16.5
0.0
0.0

-0.8
-0.8
-1.4
0.0
9.7

-0.5
-0.6
0.4
0.0
1.9

1518

1629

1726

1601

1490

1308

1153

1117

1125

1104

1066

1.3

-1.5

-2.5

-0.4

719

761

1108

1157

1295

1234

1222

1227

1211

1203

1229

4.4

1.6

-0.6

0.0

18563

20821

19158

19029

18963

18672

18489

18672

18725

18763

18911

0.3

-0.1

-0.3

0.1

4447
2736
1711
4486
2419
7212

4158
2588
1570
5497
3079
8087

3602
2357
1245
4632
2746
8177

3718
2476
1242
4638
2517
8156

4097
2780
1317
4494
2516
7857

4138
2825
1313
4537
2539
7458

4028
2711
1317
4653
2475
7333

4063
2724
1339
4763
2549
7297

4023
2707
1317
4780
2585
7337

3992
2670
1322
4791
2588
7392

4027
2654
1373
4800
2565
7518

-2.1
-1.5
-3.1
0.3
1.3
1.3

1.3
1.7
0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-0.4

-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.4
-0.2
-0.7

0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1

891
12631
257
3710
28
1046
0

458
14278
586
4377
49
1073
0

301
12125
781
4568
177
1205
0

265
11638
786
4534
223
1582
1

265
10912
779
4731
247
2027
1

239
10141
909
4781
273
2327
4

216
9765
961
4903
322
2317
6

200
9525
1048
5199
257
2435
8

188
9283
1083
5408
206
2541
16

176
9159
1025
5560
206
2615
21

171
9074
1077
5743
206
2615
25

-10.3
-0.4
11.7
2.1
20.3
1.4
17.7

-1.3
-1.0
0.0
0.4
3.4
5.3
0.0

-2.0
-1.1
2.1
0.4
2.7
1.3
14.4

-1.1
-0.4
0.6
0.8
-2.2
0.6
7.6

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

Energy Branch Consumption


Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-0.6
-0.6
-4.5
-1.2
-2.6
-12.7
-7.2
-7.4 -100.0
-16.4 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
4.8
2.6
7.3
-0.7
2.6
-0.9
1.8
0.8
19.7
12.5
1.0
7.1
14.0
2.0
32.7
7.4
24.0

1.9
-12.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
0.6
1.2
3.9
2.6
8.5

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

1371

1517

1851

2865

3653

3865

3979

5113

5923

6074

6237

3.0

7.0

0.9

2.3

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

130.6

118.9
65.2
53.7
92.1
48.7
3.2
6.7
6.7
2.8
24.1
6.6
20.2

105.9
57.7
48.1
83.3
41.5
3.1
6.2
6.6
2.4
23.5
6.0
16.5

97.8
52.6
45.2
74.8
35.3
2.9
6.6
6.1
2.1
21.8
7.3
15.7

85.1
42.7
42.3
62.7
25.6
2.7
6.0
5.6
2.1
20.8
7.4
14.9

72.7
32.2
40.5
52.7
16.9
2.5
5.7
5.3
1.9
20.5
5.6
14.4

65.6
25.4
40.2
45.5
10.4
2.3
5.6
5.0
1.9
20.3
5.5
14.6

62.3
22.9
39.4
42.3
7.8
2.5
5.1
4.7
1.8
20.4
5.4
14.6

61.9
23.0
38.9
42.0
8.0
2.5
4.7
4.4
1.8
20.5
5.2
14.8

61.3
22.5
38.8
41.4
7.7
2.4
4.7
4.0
1.8
20.7
5.0
14.9

-0.9

98.0
52.4
2.7
10.4
7.5
3.4
21.5
8.8
23.8

137.0
77.3
59.7
106.0
56.2
2.8
8.9
9.8
4.2
24.1
9.5
21.6

-0.6
-0.7
1.8
-4.3
-1.2
-2.0
1.1
-2.8
-1.7
0

-1.9
-2.1
-1.7
-2.1
-3.1
-1.1
-0.2
-0.9
-2.8
-1.0
0.9
-2.5
0

-2.9
-4.8
-1.1
-3.4
-7.1
-1.4
-1.5
-1.4
-0.8
-0.6
-2.6
-0.9
0

-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.2
-3.8
-0.1
-1.0
-1.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.6
0.2
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

121.60

127.50

110.70

98.50

91.00

79.20

67.70

61.10

58.00

57.60

57.00

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

112

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Greece: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

10.904
184.1
153.6
3.47
69.5

11.083
224.4
139.9
3.38
68.6

11.305
227.3
126.9
3.19
69.1

11.445
213.4
129.6
3.01
68.9

11.526
227.1
117.6
2.80
69.9

11.562
240.6
104.0
2.51
74.6

11.578
256.6
93.8
2.19
79.3

11.605
273.8
89.4
1.86
76.2

11.630
289.3
85.2
1.72
72.3

11.629
304.3
81.4
1.69
71.9

11.576
322.1
77.9
1.65
71.2

0.4
2.1
-1.9
-0.8

0.2
0.0
-0.8
-1.3

0.0
1.2
-2.2
-2.4

0.0
1.1
-0.9
-1.4

16.5
9.0

21.4
9.5

28.8
12.7

35.2
16.5

37.4
16.4

39.0
16.2

40.8
15.9

42.1
15.4

44.2
15.3

45.9
15.1

47.8
14.8

5.7

2.7

0.9

0.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
41.8
46.9

85.4
99.5
100.4
40.5
45.6

81.5
78.3
86.7
38.4
54.8

87.0
83.3
85.1
36.8
53.8

87.2
76.3
80.0
33.8
51.9

84.2
73.5
75.8
30.2
48.1

77.6
71.9
68.8
27.9
45.9

74.5
70.4
66.1
26.5
44.7

71.6
68.3
63.1
25.6
43.1

68.8
66.6
59.8
25.0
41.7

66.0
65.0
55.9
24.6
41.0

-2.0
-2.4
-1.4
-0.9
1.6

0.7
-0.3
-0.8
-1.3
-0.5

-1.2
-0.6
-1.5
-1.9
-1.2

-0.8
-0.5
-1.0
-0.6
-0.6

0.98
2.31
2.35
1.68
1.41
2.98

0.94
2.26
2.14
1.78
1.38
2.98

0.82
2.10
1.86
1.44
1.01
2.94

0.70
2.03
1.68
1.42
0.93
2.88

0.57
1.93
1.61
1.36
0.83
2.77

0.42
1.85
1.46
1.24
0.81
2.78

0.28
1.80
1.40
1.14
0.78
2.79

0.16
1.75
1.37
1.05
0.73
2.78

0.12
1.71
1.26
0.98
0.71
2.78

0.12
1.67
1.18
0.92
0.71
2.77

0.11
1.65
1.16
0.84
0.72
2.75

-1.7
-1.0
-2.3
-1.5
-3.2
-0.1

-3.6
-0.8
-1.4
-0.6
-2.0
-0.6

-7.0
-0.7
-1.4
-1.7
-0.6
0.1

-4.6
-0.4
-0.9
-1.5
-0.4
-0.1

7.0
0.0

6.9
0.0

9.2
2.0

14.6
4.9

18.7
10.1

20.2
10.5

21.1
10.6

27.0
11.3

31.3
11.8

32.1
12.5

32.8
13.6

53425
0
34313
8885
5920
163
3693
451
0
0
0
10208
0
2548
2359
189
0
0
7659
195
0
4425
1172
2034
28
0
0

59427
0
35543
9207
8171
222
5017
1266
1
0
0
11812
0
2970
2396
573
1
0
8841
312
0
4708
1826
2249
59
0
0

57367
0
30797
6089
9830
319
7460
2714
158
0
0
15061
0
3961
2436
1323
202
0
11099
373
0
4781
3416
2809
94
0
0

56439
0
27311
5482
7512
377
5829
5246
4679
2
0
20978
0
8003
2756
2195
3052
0
12975
489
0
4462
5979
2443
91
0
0

59454
0
24447
3626
9981
626
6950
8779
5038
7
0
22407
0
9868
3149
3433
3286
0
12539
528
0
4334
5589
2458
157
0
1

57755
0
15701
3114
15436
588
8100
9659
5150
7
0
20448
0
10250
3171
3720
3359
0
10197
633
0
1897
5587
2555
157
0
1

57480
0
7065
2604
22261
585
9012
9742
5729
482
0
20362
0
10577
3192
3745
3640
0
9785
1029
0
1347
5688
2521
174
0
55

60777
0
1715
1858
20622
1441
9602
15068
8802
1668
0
23743
0
13849
3192
5533
5125
0
9894
788
0
1181
6014
2127
381
0
190

63733
0
1222
1532
16520
1516
9920
19641
11022
2360
0
26685
0
16457
3192
7068
6198
0
10228
880
0
1181
6526
1737
514
0
269

66524
0
1050
1229
19340
1413
10015
19970
11022
2485
0
27872
0
16768
3192
7379
6198
0
11104
1375
0
1181
7515
1647
478
0
284

69511
0
536
1179
20582
1278
10059
20877
12236
2765
0
29450
0
17653
3192
7677
6784
0
11798
1188
0
1007
8374
1611
490
0
316

0.7
0.0
-1.1
-3.7
5.2
6.9
7.3
19.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.5
0.3
21.5
0.0
0.0
3.8
6.7
0.0
0.8
11.3
3.3
13.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.0
-2.3
-5.1
0.2
7.0
-0.7
12.5
41.4
38.6
0.0
4.1
0.0
9.6
2.6
10.0
32.2
0.0
1.2
3.5
0.0
-1.0
5.0
-1.3
5.3
0.0
0.0

-0.3
0.0
-11.7
-3.3
8.4
-0.7
2.6
1.0
1.3
52.0
0.0
-1.0
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.9
1.0
0.0
-2.4
6.9
0.0
-11.0
0.2
0.3
1.0
0.0
52.0

1.0
0.0
-12.1
-3.9
-0.4
4.0
0.6
3.9
3.9
9.1
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.6
0.0
3.7
3.2
0.0
0.9
0.7
0.0
-1.4
2.0
-2.2
5.3
0.0
9.1

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

55.3

53.3

40.4

29.0

28.8

31.0

31.4

28.8

27.0

27.0

26.7

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

36.5
2.1
0.0
8.1
0.0
8.1

36.5
1.7
0.0
10.9
0.0
10.9

36.5
4.3
0.0
18.6
0.0
18.6

38.3
5.2
0.0
28.6
0.0
28.6

41.2
4.8
0.0
36.0
0.0
36.0

45.3
6.1
0.0
40.7
0.0
40.7

48.2
8.6
0.0
44.4
0.0
44.4

42.2
6.2
0.0
60.2
0.0
60.2

37.9
5.0
0.0
69.8
0.0
69.8

39.4
5.7
0.0
67.5
0.0
67.5

39.0
6.9
0.0
67.9
0.0
67.9

128.7
21.7
66.7
3.1
29.9
7.3

152.9
21.7
89.7
3.4
31.1
7.1

160.2
21.1
105.4
3.0
23.8
6.8

166.0
21.7
106.6
3.2
27.6
6.9

172.1
22.3
107.3
3.3
32.1
7.0

181.3
22.9
109.9
3.6
37.7
7.3

191.1
23.5
111.9
3.8
44.3
7.7

199.3
24.0
114.3
4.2
48.8
7.9

207.7
24.5
116.6
4.5
53.9
8.2

214.8
24.8
118.6
4.8
58.1
8.5

222.0
25.1
120.5
5.0
62.6
8.8

2.2
-0.3
4.7
-0.2
-2.2
-0.7

0.7
0.5
0.2
0.9
3.0
0.3

1.1
0.5
0.4
1.4
3.3
0.8

0.8
0.3
0.4
1.4
1.7
0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

38.7
29.0
0.4
9.3

41.6
32.5
0.6
8.5

36.7
29.8
0.6
6.3

37.9
30.6
0.6
6.7

39.2
31.3
0.7
7.2

41.0
32.6
0.7
7.8

43.0
33.8
0.7
8.4

44.7
35.1
0.8
8.8

46.4
36.3
0.8
9.3

48.0
37.5
0.8
9.6

49.6
38.7
0.9
10.0

-0.5
0.3
3.7
-3.8

0.6
0.5
0.6
1.3

0.9
0.8
1.0
1.7

0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

7201
284
3338
1712
49
1325
4930

8080
283
4143
1775
53
1181
6450

8166
280
4300
1925
24
919
7170

8143
284
4131
1947
24
1023
7330

7842
285
3755
1935
24
1098
7450

7443
281
3292
1873
24
1203
7700

7316
276
3046
1868
25
1306
7950

7280
273
2932
1885
25
1353
8120

7319
273
2868
1888
25
1441
8250

7374
272
2826
1885
24
1525
8420

7499
272
2818
1917
23
1619
8510

1.3
-0.1
2.6
1.2
-6.8
-3.6
3.8
0.0

-0.4
0.2
-1.3
0.1
-0.1
1.8
0.4
0.0

-0.7
-0.3
-2.1
-0.4
0.5
1.7
0.7
0.0

0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.5
1.1
0.3
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

113

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Hungary: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

11598
2893
1698
2475
3672
859
15
758
0
0
86

10385
1748
1470
2331
3585
1252
17
1145
1
2
87

11088
1593
1172
2235
4078
2010
16
1844
46
5
99

10954
1725
844
1773
4465
2148
21
1911
66
56
92

10375
503
814
1871
4585
2601
22
2227
155
111
86

12349
480
757
1749
6549
2814
22
2328
196
175
93

13607
379
715
1676
8008
2830
22
2259
196
253
100

13415
320
518
1818
6128
4631
22
2419
223
364
1602

12124
983
272
1781
3826
5262
22
2717
226
363
1934

12678
865
14
698
6022
5079
22
2481
235
399
1941

12637
998
0
270
6168
5202
22
2611
241
384
1943

-0.4
-5.8
-3.6
-1.0
1.1
8.9
0.5
9.3
0.0
0.0
1.4

-0.7
-10.9
-3.6
-1.8
1.2
2.6
3.1
1.9
12.9
35.2
-1.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

13960
1087
5295
5883
-589
7283
296

17501
1299
5859
6071
-212
9807
535

15135
1143
5749
5952
-203
7726
447

14675
1007
5638
5927
-289
7382
560

14443
1023
5494
5860
-366
7331
492

14198
1137
5756
6098
-342
6799
400

14004
910
6093
6401
-308
6520
377

14878
837
6335
6666
-331
7114
482

15739
962
6553
6918
-365
7651
448

16363
840
6768
7167
-399
8223
418

16821
811
6713
7148
-435
8732
444

0.8
0.5
0.8
0.1
-10.1
0.6
4.2

-0.5
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
6.1
-0.5
1.0

-0.3
-1.2
1.0
0.9
-1.7
-1.2
-2.6

0.9
-0.6
0.5
0.6
1.7
1.5
0.8

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

25300
3850
6966
9657
3672
296
859

27704
3031
7208
12094
3585
535
1252

25978
2730
6832
9815
4078
447
2077

25629
2731
6483
9155
4465
560
2235

24817
1526
6308
9203
4585
492
2704

26547
1617
6513
8548
6549
400
2921

27612
1289
6808
8195
8008
377
2934

28293
1157
6853
8932
6128
482
4742

27863
1945
6825
9433
3826
448
5387

29041
1705
6782
8921
6022
418
5193

29458
1809
6713
9002
6168
444
5322

0.3
-3.4
-0.2
0.2
1.1
4.2
9.2

-0.5
-5.6
-0.8
-0.6
1.2
1.0
2.7

1.1
-1.7
0.8
-1.2
5.7
-2.6
0.8

0.3
1.7
-0.1
0.5
-1.3
0.8
3.0

15.2
27.5
38.2
14.5
3.4

10.9
26.0
43.7
12.9
4.5

10.5
26.3
37.8
15.7
8.0

10.7
25.3
35.7
17.4
8.7

6.2
25.4
37.1
18.5
10.9

6.1
24.5
32.2
24.7
11.0

4.7
24.7
29.7
29.0
10.6

4.1
24.2
31.6
21.7
16.8

7.0
24.5
33.9
13.7
19.3

5.9
23.4
30.7
20.7
17.9

6.1
22.8
30.6
20.9
18.1

35185
7771

35750
6477

37364
6558

35383
5595

36250
5290

40959
6085

44627
6614

44883
6765

48109
8188

52694
8867

54884
9345

0.6
-1.7

-0.3
-2.1

2.1
2.3

1.0
1.7

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

6009
2755
1052
2140
61
0
0

5692
1924
155
3078
534
0
0

5265
1646
138
2704
777
0
0

4518
1915
138
1642
823
0
0

3811
693
107
2015
996
0
0

3024
675
56
1245
1049
0
0

2446
481
66
970
928
0
0

4670
410
74
1504
1191
1491
0

6740
1075
81
2168
1602
1814
0

5696
858
84
1589
1351
1814
0

5786
994
87
1422
1469
1814
0

-1.3
-5.0
-18.4
2.4
28.9
0.0
0.0

-3.2
-8.3
-2.5
-2.9
2.5
0.0
0.0

-4.3
-3.6
-4.7
-7.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0

4.4
3.7
1.4
1.9
2.3
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

12948
7634
0
470
4843

13248
8200
3
627
4418

14604
8590
175
474
5365

14366
8317
214
415
5419

14579
8225
396
368
5591

16980
8482
399
407
7690

18544
8822
419
417
8887

16581
8914
430
381
6857

14508
8927
446
348
4788

16661
8919
448
347
6946

16724
8882
458
358
7027

1.2
1.2
0.0
0.1
1.0

0.0
-0.4
8.5
-2.5
0.4

2.4
0.7
0.6
1.3
4.7

-0.5
0.0
0.5
-0.8
-1.2

Energy Branch Consumption

1164

1062

1105

948

890

985

1014

982

1087

1129

1149

-0.5

-2.1

1.3

0.6

Non-Energy Uses

1579

2162

1977

1982

2176

2480

2746

2815

2803

2773

2726

2.3

1.0

2.4

0.0

16098

18173

16660

16917

16573

17001

17189

17462

17609

17877

18187

0.3

-0.1

0.4

0.3

3513
2517
996
5603
3710
3272

3372
2271
1102
6464
4071
4266

2912
1853
1058
5719
3628
4401

2769
1711
1057
5886
3800
4462

2835
1785
1050
5530
3829
4380

3056
1942
1114
5703
3836
4407

3087
1920
1167
5746
3806
4550

3177
1954
1222
5873
3799
4614

3146
1946
1200
5923
3839
4701

3236
1967
1269
6015
3901
4725

3328
1986
1342
6105
3977
4776

-1.9
-3.0
0.6
0.2
-0.2
3.0

-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.0

0.9
0.7
1.1
0.4
-0.1
0.4

0.4
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.2

665
4176
6503
2531
1447
774
0

690
4859
7852
2781
1308
683
0

481
4703
6261
2941
1090
1184
0

392
4652
6440
2968
1165
1300
0

378
4365
6179
3026
1149
1474
1

433
4416
6190
3247
1172
1541
2

433
4503
5994
3479
1174
1603
3

454
4533
6069
3612
1163
1626
5

453
4608
5935
3741
1272
1592
9

438
4593
5982
4028
1205
1618
12

431
4586
6161
4197
1169
1628
16

-3.2
1.2
-0.4
1.5
-2.8
4.3
0.9

-2.4
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
0.5
2.2
93.7

1.4
0.3
-0.3
1.4
0.2
0.8
15.0

0.0
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.0
0.1
8.6

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

2.7
-0.4
-2.8
5.0
-1.3 -100.0
-1.1
-8.7
5.7
-1.3
0.8
3.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.7
2.4
1.0
8.6
2.1
1.5
16.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

814

839

1490

1798

2274

2500

2592

2942

3232

3144

3265

6.2

4.3

1.3

1.2

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

77.4

67.9
23.7
44.1
49.2
16.0
1.5
5.4
8.6
5.2
12.5
3.3
15.3

63.7
21.2
42.5
46.7
13.9
1.2
4.7
8.8
5.5
12.5
3.1
13.9

57.5
17.0
40.5
40.7
9.5
1.2
4.8
8.0
5.6
11.7
3.2
13.6

56.3
16.0
40.3
39.5
7.5
1.3
5.3
8.1
5.5
11.8
3.5
13.3

53.3
13.5
39.8
37.1
5.5
1.2
5.1
8.0
5.1
12.1
3.2
13.0

54.4
14.3
40.1
38.0
6.1
1.3
5.3
8.2
4.8
12.2
3.3
13.1

55.1
15.0
40.0
38.6
6.9
1.2
5.0
8.2
4.9
12.4
3.3
13.2

51.6
11.7
39.8
36.4
4.7
1.2
5.2
8.1
4.7
12.4
2.2
12.9

51.2
11.0
40.2
36.4
4.2
1.3
5.4
8.2
4.8
12.6
1.8
13.0

-1.3

54.9
22.1
1.5
6.8
8.8
6.1
9.5
4.0
18.5

79.1
30.1
49.0
56.3
18.3
1.2
6.7
10.7
6.7
12.5
4.3
18.6

-1.1
-3.2
-0.2
-2.3
-0.2
-1.6
2.7
-1.9
-1.9
0

-1.6
-3.3
-0.8
-1.9
-5.2
-2.6
-1.2
-0.7
0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-1.2
0

-0.8
-2.3
-0.2
-0.9
-5.2
0.6
0.6
0.0
-0.8
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0

-0.2
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
-1.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.4
0.2
-2.7
0.0
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

79.20

80.90

69.40

65.10

58.80

57.50

54.50

55.60

56.30

52.70

52.30

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

114

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Hungary: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

10.222
79.9
316.5
2.17
55.2

10.098
98.0
282.6
2.03
63.2

10.014
97.1
267.6
1.90
58.3

9.958
101.7
252.1
1.82
57.3

9.901
106.6
232.8
1.64
58.2

9.820
115.9
229.1
1.49
53.5

9.704
127.3
216.9
1.34
50.7

9.575
137.5
205.7
1.34
52.6

9.443
146.5
190.2
1.38
56.5

9.316
154.4
188.1
1.25
56.3

9.177
162.0
181.8
1.24
57.1

-0.2
2.0
-1.7
-1.3

-0.1
0.9
-1.4
-1.4

-0.2
1.8
-0.7
-2.0

-0.3
1.2
-0.9
-0.4

12.2
15.3

17.2
17.5

21.6
22.2

24.8
24.3

27.7
26.0

30.5
26.3

33.5
26.3

35.6
25.9

37.9
25.9

39.3
25.4

40.3
24.9

5.8

2.5

1.9

0.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
28.4
34.4

74.8
90.3
90.0
29.9
48.0

64.8
85.4
81.9
27.8
46.1

58.8
84.2
81.8
27.0
45.1

57.3
75.6
78.6
24.8
43.6

56.5
71.8
72.3
22.5
41.1

51.9
65.9
65.1
21.1
39.5

49.5
62.2
59.9
20.3
38.4

46.1
58.8
56.8
19.6
37.2

45.0
56.5
54.7
19.1
36.3

44.1
54.4
53.1
18.8
35.5

-4.2
-1.6
-2.0
-0.2
3.0

-1.2
-1.2
-0.4
-1.2
-0.6

-1.0
-1.4
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0

-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-0.6
-0.5

0.41
1.94
1.92
1.57
1.65
2.92

0.34
2.02
2.00
1.66
1.65
2.94

0.31
1.90
1.85
1.50
1.44
2.84

0.27
1.87
1.71
1.49
1.46
2.81

0.18
1.81
1.68
1.45
1.45
2.68

0.13
1.81
1.74
1.42
1.44
2.67

0.09
1.77
1.64
1.40
1.35
2.66

0.10
1.75
1.67
1.39
1.28
2.65

0.10
1.73
1.60
1.38
1.27
2.64

0.07
1.70
1.61
1.35
1.20
2.63

0.06
1.70
1.61
1.34
1.20
2.63

-2.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-1.3
-0.3

-5.3
-0.5
-1.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.6

-6.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-0.1

-2.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.1

4.8
0.0

4.4
0.1

8.5
4.4

10.3
5.3

13.3
10.1

14.2
10.4

14.5
10.6

16.2
11.1

17.5
11.6

16.8
11.6

17.1
11.8

35191
14180
9590
4404
6719
120
178
0
0
0
0
8237
1706
44
44
0
0
0
6487
1464
0
1515
3722
957
293
0
0

35756
13834
7023
455
12502
1730
202
10
0
0
0
8301
1728
65
48
18
0
0
6508
1608
0
1324
4316
514
354
0
0

37371
15761
6234
490
11714
2449
188
534
1
0
0
9135
1992
353
56
295
2
0
6791
1462
0
1247
4678
515
350
0
0

35383
16989
6678
639
7732
2326
249
768
4
0
0
9092
2017
478
63
413
3
0
6596
1292
0
882
4899
433
382
0
0

36250
17323
1997
473
10651
3637
255
1799
114
0
0
8258
2030
1059
64
903
93
0
5168
1501
0
301
4172
147
549
0
0

40959
25911
2011
259
5508
4177
254
2281
558
0
0
8951
3029
1793
64
1236
493
0
4129
1655
0
291
3114
133
591
0
0

44627
32289
1354
267
3791
3589
258
2281
798
0
0
10167
4035
2012
64
1236
712
0
4119
1625
0
291
3114
104
610
0
0

44883
25440
1134
351
7456
4850
258
2598
1063
1733
0
10293
3019
2379
64
1387
928
0
4894
1599
0
238
3719
107
633
0
198

48109
16744
5445
466
12573
6762
255
2625
1128
2109
0
10753
2000
2446
64
1400
981
0
6307
2122
605
709
4268
137
953
0
241

52694
26426
4825
486
8321
6119
258
2733
1415
2109
0
11806
3125
2731
64
1452
1215
0
5950
2155
605
521
4068
139
981
0
241

54884
27068
5803
502
8119
6804
258
2804
1415
2109
0
12338
3200
2765
64
1485
1215
0
6373
1963
722
588
4221
126
1198
0
241

0.6
-0.3
1.1
0.9
-4.2
-10.8
-19.7
-0.3
5.7
-0.9
35.2
4.0
0.5
3.1
0.0
12.9
0.0
63.2
0.0 -100.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
-1.0
1.6
0.2
23.1
11.6
2.4
1.4
0.0
11.8
0.0
46.8
0.0
0.0
0.5
-2.7
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-13.2
2.3
-1.1
-6.0
-11.8
1.8
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

2.1
6.4
-3.8
-5.6
-9.8
-0.1
0.1
2.4
21.5
0.0
0.0
2.1
7.1
6.6
0.0
3.2
22.6
0.0
-2.2
0.8
0.0
-0.3
-2.9
-3.4
1.1
0.0
0.0

1.0
-0.9
7.5
3.2
3.9
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
-1.2
1.6
0.1
0.9
2.7
0.0
2.2
0.9
0.0
3.6
1.5
1.0
3.4
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

44.7

45.7

43.3

42.2

48.1

49.8

47.7

47.5

47.6

47.5

47.3

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

29.8
13.5
0.0
41.1
40.3
0.8

32.8
19.1
0.0
44.1
38.7
5.4

34.1
19.6
0.0
50.7
42.2
8.5

33.1
21.8
0.0
57.5
48.0
9.5

37.8
23.9
0.0
63.8
47.8
16.0

34.0
21.0
0.0
81.0
63.3
17.8

31.6
18.1
0.0
87.9
72.4
15.5

28.6
20.0
0.0
80.1
56.7
23.4

34.9
27.6
12.0
61.6
34.8
26.8

33.0
23.6
10.9
74.1
50.1
24.0

34.7
22.9
11.8
73.7
49.3
24.4

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

80.1
18.7
47.0
12.3
2.1
0.0

84.2
17.8
50.5
12.2
3.7
0.0

83.6
16.0
53.8
10.2
3.6
0.0

87.4
16.6
55.7
10.8
4.4
0.0

91.4
17.2
57.5
11.4
5.3
0.0

100.3
18.1
63.0
12.8
6.4
0.0

110.0
19.0
69.0
14.4
7.7
0.0

116.5
19.6
72.8
15.4
8.7
0.0

123.3
20.2
76.7
16.5
9.9
0.0

127.6
20.6
78.7
17.2
11.0
0.0

131.9
21.0
80.7
17.9
12.2
0.0

0.4
-1.6
1.4
-1.9
5.7
0.0

0.9
0.7
0.7
1.2
3.9
0.0

1.9
1.0
1.9
2.3
3.8
0.0

0.9
0.5
0.8
1.1
2.4
0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

28.8
19.1
8.8
0.9

36.4
25.2
9.1
2.1

44.9
33.7
8.8
2.4

46.7
34.6
9.6
2.6

48.5
35.4
10.4
2.7

52.3
37.8
11.4
3.0

56.3
40.4
12.6
3.3

58.8
42.1
13.2
3.4

61.4
43.9
13.9
3.6

62.9
45.1
14.3
3.6

64.6
46.2
14.6
3.7

4.5
5.8
0.0
10.4

0.8
0.5
1.7
1.3

1.5
1.3
1.9
1.9

0.7
0.7
0.8
0.6

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

3270
340
1665
864
171
230
00

4262
318
1904
1625
153
261
10

4401
278
1791
1949
151
230
10

4461
286
1773
1972
161
268
10

4379
289
1644
1977
170
299
10

4406
289
1607
2004
179
324
10

4549
290
1628
2071
189
369
10

4613
291
1622
2101
192
406
10

4700
294
1641
2133
192
439
10

4724
295
1640
2138
187
463
10

4775
294
1651
2156
180
492
10

3.0
-2.0
0.7
8.5
-1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.1
0.4
-0.9
0.1
1.2
2.7
1.3
0.0

0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.5
1.1
2.1
1.7
0.0

0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
1.4
0.4
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

115

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Ireland: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

2190
997
0
958
0
235
73
141
21
0
0

1671
847
0
461
0
364
54
213
96
0
0

1994
1040
9
316
0
628
52
329
242
6
0

2412
653
9
642
0
1107
68
493
494
52
0

2886
643
9
537
0
1698
84
622
872
119
1

3412
447
9
519
0
2436
85
719
1418
213
2

3757
281
9
661
0
2806
88
915
1498
302
3

3797
68
9
761
0
2958
93
1004
1517
341
3

3923
62
9
736
0
3116
104
1091
1544
374
3

3998
59
9
656
0
3274
117
1135
1570
448
3

4192
58
9
639
0
3485
126
1178
1658
519
3

-0.9
0.4
0.0
-10.5
0.0
10.3
-3.4
8.8
27.7
46.8
0.0

3.8
-4.7
0.0
5.4
0.0
10.4
5.0
6.6
13.7
35.8
0.0

2.7
-7.9
0.0
2.1
0.0
5.2
0.4
3.9
5.6
9.8
10.6

0.5
-7.6
0.0
-0.2
0.0
1.1
1.8
1.3
0.5
2.7
0.7

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

12156
1693
7977
2994
4982
2478
8

13715
2016
8514
3316
5198
3010
176

13001
1038
7496
2981
4514
4386
40

12984
2053
7656
3057
4599
2789
240

12211
1921
7361
2897
4464
2170
235

11422
1208
7426
2865
4561
2027
260

11437
398
7573
2844
4729
2614
294

11994
412
7724
2811
4913
3004
293

12359
413
7864
2785
5079
3168
303

12833
412
7975
2777
5199
3480
326

13339
419
8195
2793
5403
3727
329

0.7
-4.8
-0.6
0.0
-1.0
5.9
17.0

-0.6
6.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-6.8
19.3

-0.7
-14.6
0.3
-0.2
0.6
1.9
2.3

0.8
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.7
1.8
0.6

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

14249
2646
7924
3436
0
8
235

15235
2789
8437
3470
0
176
364

15100
2095
7604
4696
0
40
666

15294
2706
7563
3431
0
240
1354

14988
2564
7263
2706
0
235
2220

14718
1655
7322
2544
0
260
2937

15070
679
7461
3272
0
294
3364

15664
481
7610
3761
0
293
3519

16149
475
7744
3900
0
303
3727

16690
471
7849
4131
0
326
3913

17380
476
8060
4361
0
329
4154

0.6
-2.3
-0.4
3.2
0.0
17.0
11.0

-0.1
2.0
-0.5
-5.4
0.0
19.3
12.8

0.1
-12.4
0.3
1.9
0.0
2.3
4.2

0.7
-1.8
0.4
1.4
0.0
0.6
1.1

18.6
55.6
24.1
0.0
1.6

18.3
55.4
22.8
0.0
2.4

13.9
50.4
31.1
0.0
4.4

17.7
49.5
22.4
0.0
8.9

17.1
48.5
18.1
0.0
14.8

11.2
49.8
17.3
0.0
20.0

4.5
49.5
21.7
0.0
22.3

3.1
48.6
24.0
0.0
22.5

2.9
48.0
24.1
0.0
23.1

2.8
47.0
24.8
0.0
23.4

2.7
46.4
25.1
0.0
23.9

23669
3467

25621
3422

28429
3406

27355
3335

27686
3204

29853
3265

32358
3233

35596
3493

38015
3733

40478
3994

43333
4267

1.8
-0.2

-0.3
-0.6

1.6
0.1

1.5
1.4

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

4747
1902
996
1825
24
0
0

4742
1906
766
2040
30
0
0

4592
1363
135
3017
77
0
0

3875
2087
13
1642
132
0
0

3164
1956
14
976
219
0
0

2214
1161
16
797
240
0
0

2088
218
18
1474
378
0
0

2350
8
20
1925
396
0
0

2526
5
22
2020
479
0
0

2718
5
24
2182
508
0
0

2892
5
26
2329
533
0
0

-0.3
-3.3
-18.1
5.2
12.6
0.0
0.0

-3.7
3.7
-20.4
-10.7
11.0
0.0
0.0

-4.1
-19.7
2.6
4.2
5.6
0.0
0.0

1.6
-17.4
1.9
2.3
1.7
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

3480
3317
0
0
162

3495
3354
1
0
139

3179
2943
90
0
146

3359
3066
182
0
111

3416
2907
402
0
108

3363
2874
412
0
77

3339
2853
419
0
67

3308
2820
421
0
67

3291
2794
433
0
63

3300
2786
454
0
61

3341
2802
480
0
59

-0.9
-1.2
0.0
0.0
-1.1

0.7
-0.1
16.1
0.0
-3.0

-0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-4.6

0.0
-0.1
0.7
0.0
-0.6

Energy Branch Consumption

254

296

257

240

225

204

174

165

168

171

176

0.1

-1.3

-2.5

0.1

Non-Energy Uses

552

308

265

301

332

348

373

395

412

429

450

-7.1

2.3

1.2

0.9

10688

12515

11790

12379

12407

12691

13279

13861

14336

14813

15471

1.0

0.5

0.7

0.8

2497
1242
1256
2503
1670
4018

2631
1344
1287
2907
1980
4997

1921
895
1026
3241
1961
4667

2335
1056
1278
3213
1924
4907

2441
1105
1337
3107
1896
4963

2650
1190
1460
3129
1881
5031

2867
1239
1628
3209
1911
5291

3046
1274
1772
3336
1964
5516

3197
1290
1907
3403
1995
5742

3364
1298
2066
3483
2055
5910

3582
1307
2276
3592
2138
6159

-2.6
-3.2
-2.0
2.6
1.6
1.5

2.4
2.1
2.7
-0.4
-0.3
0.6

1.6
1.2
2.0
0.3
0.1
0.6

1.1
0.3
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.8

707
6918
1200
1744
0
118
0

758
8019
1461
2094
0
184
0

606
7111
1614
2163
0
295
0

589
7102
1736
2293
0
659
0

579
6773
1694
2328
0
1032
1

473
6829
1706
2535
18
1128
2

446
6933
1761
2788
64
1282
3

463
7071
1786
3043
121
1373
4

461
7189
1831
3239
189
1422
6

458
7270
1908
3450
248
1472
8

463
7458
1995
3673
355
1518
9

-1.5
0.3
3.0
2.2
0.0
9.6
0.0

-0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.7
0.0
13.3
74.9

-2.6
0.2
0.4
1.8
316.8
2.2
13.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
1.4
8.9
0.8
6.4

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

217

355

658

1227

2074

2783

3177

3313

3500

3644

3866

11.7

12.2

4.4

1.0

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

69.2

63.3
20.0
43.3
41.6
13.3
0.3
3.5
7.6
3.1
13.8
1.4
20.3

63.7
19.9
43.8
41.2
12.6
0.3
3.9
7.0
3.0
14.3
1.6
20.9

60.8
17.7
43.0
37.9
10.5
0.3
3.7
6.6
2.9
13.8
1.7
21.2

57.4
14.4
43.0
34.0
6.8
0.3
4.0
6.4
2.5
14.0
1.9
21.5

55.0
12.0
43.1
31.9
4.5
0.3
4.1
6.1
2.3
14.7
1.7
21.4

56.0
12.2
43.8
32.6
4.6
0.2
4.0
6.2
2.2
15.4
1.8
21.6

57.1
12.5
44.7
33.3
4.8
0.2
4.0
6.1
2.2
16.0
1.8
22.1

58.4
12.9
45.5
34.1
5.2
0.2
4.1
6.1
2.1
16.4
1.8
22.6

60.0
13.2
46.8
35.2
5.5
0.2
4.2
6.1
2.2
17.0
1.7
23.1

-0.9

42.9
15.5
0.3
5.3
6.3
3.3
12.1
2.9
23.5

71.5
25.4
46.1
46.9
15.3
0.4
5.6
7.0
3.5
15.0
2.6
22.0

-0.3
-1.5
1.1
-4.3
1.8
-0.7
1.3
-7.1
-1.4
0

-0.4
-1.2
-0.1
-0.9
-2.3
-1.0
0.8
-1.4
-0.7
0.0
2.1
0.4
0

-1.0
-3.9
0.0
-1.7
-8.2
-1.6
0.9
-0.9
-2.2
0.7
0.0
0.1
0

0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
1.1
-0.8
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.7
0.1
0.4
0

123.10

127.10

112.50

113.20

108.10

102.00

97.90

99.60

101.60

103.90

106.70

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)


Source: PRIMES

116

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Ireland: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

3.778
123.2
115.7
3.01
84.4

4.112
156.7
97.2
3.08
89.4

4.468
156.0
96.8
2.75
85.6

4.605
170.7
89.6
2.69
84.3

4.815
191.6
78.2
2.53
80.9

5.052
225.3
65.3
2.31
77.0

5.276
262.2
57.5
2.12
75.3

5.513
294.8
53.1
2.08
76.0

5.758
324.6
49.7
2.06
75.9

5.995
353.2
47.3
2.04
76.2

6.207
385.9
45.0
2.03
76.1

1.7
2.4
-1.8
-0.9

0.8
2.1
-2.1
-0.8

0.9
3.2
-3.0
-1.8

0.8
2.0
-1.2
-0.2

10.1
8.2

13.9
8.9

16.3
10.5

20.0
11.7

22.0
11.5

23.8
10.6

26.1
10.0

27.9
9.5

29.7
9.2

31.4
8.9

33.6
8.7

5.0

3.0

1.7

1.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
50.1
101.1

82.2
94.0
99.1
48.4
103.8

45.5
102.1
97.6
47.7
130.9

49.5
98.9
88.6
45.3
130.4

46.2
86.2
77.7
40.7
127.1

43.7
74.2
64.8
36.3
120.5

41.2
65.9
56.2
33.7
117.5

39.5
61.4
51.1
32.4
115.3

38.2
57.3
46.8
31.4
111.5

37.3
54.3
44.2
30.5
109.1

36.9
51.2
41.9
30.0
108.5

-7.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.5
2.6

0.1
-1.7
-2.3
-1.6
-0.3

-1.1
-2.6
-3.2
-1.9
-0.8

-0.6
-1.3
-1.5
-0.6
-0.4

0.65
2.53
2.14
2.53
1.99
3.00

0.60
2.49
2.14
2.43
1.76
3.01

0.47
2.37
1.80
2.35
1.58
2.95

0.46
2.28
1.65
2.19
1.58
2.91

0.38
2.18
1.54
2.14
1.53
2.78

0.23
2.12
1.50
2.04
1.35
2.78

0.13
2.05
1.43
1.89
1.22
2.78

0.12
2.00
1.32
1.85
1.12
2.79

0.12
1.97
1.25
1.79
1.08
2.78

0.12
1.93
1.21
1.74
1.03
2.77

0.12
1.90
1.16
1.69
1.02
2.76

-3.3
-0.7
-1.7
-0.8
-2.3
-0.2

-2.0
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6

-9.9
-0.6
-0.7
-1.2
-2.3
0.0

-0.7
-0.4
-1.0
-0.5
-0.9
0.0

2.0
0.0

2.8
0.0

5.4
2.3

9.7
4.5

16.4
10.0

21.6
10.4

23.6
10.5

23.6
10.4

24.1
10.7

24.2
11.1

24.6
11.4

23673
0
8587
4638
9263
95
846
244
0
0
0
4398
0
351
233
118
0
0
4047
77
0
1386
1834
772
55
0
0

25626
0
8839
3340
11574
130
631
1112
0
0
0
5775
0
729
233
496
0
0
5046
173
0
1370
2820
780
77
0
0

28434
0
6384
605
17714
317
599
2815
0
0
0
8269
0
1665
237
1428
0
0
6604
246
0
1370
4340
783
111
0
0

27355
0
10272
58
9921
564
795
5745
0
0
0
8454
0
2334
246
2088
0
0
6120
331
0
1370
4545
43
162
0
0

27686
0
9610
36
5847
929
980
10143
0
141
0
9793
0
3914
296
3561
0
58
5879
422
0
1268
4341
45
225
0
0

29853
0
5804
20
4781
1019
986
16493
379
371
0
11984
0
6487
301
5688
346
151
5497
578
0
1234
3993
29
241
0
0

32358
0
985
73
9919
1604
1025
17418
735
600
0
12648
0
7222
312
5992
674
244
5426
749
0
351
4569
179
326
0
0

35596
0
36
81
13561
1605
1081
17641
810
781
0
13894
0
7457
332
6059
748
319
6437
1003
0
351
5427
184
475
0
0

38015
0
22
100
14678
2023
1210
17956
851
1176
0
14712
0
7853
375
6212
786
479
6859
960
0
240
5892
186
542
0
0

40478
0
22
92
15917
2016
1357
18261
1200
1614
0
15893
0
8433
418
6252
1104
658
7460
1076
0
240
6435
192
593
0
0

43333
0
22
137
16733
2038
1471
19280
1200
2452
0
16996
0
9117
454
6559
1104
1000
7879
1129
0
240
6793
229
617
0
0

1.8
0.0
-2.9
-18.4
6.7
12.8
-3.4
27.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.5
0.0
16.8
0.2
28.3
0.0
0.0
5.0
12.3
0.0
-0.1
9.0
0.1
7.4
0.0
0.0

-0.3
0.0
4.2
-24.6
-10.5
11.4
5.0
13.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
0.0
8.9
2.2
9.6
0.0
0.0
-1.2
5.6
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-24.8
7.3
0.0
0.0

1.6
0.0
-20.4
7.3
5.4
5.6
0.4
5.6
0.0
15.6
0.0
2.6
0.0
6.3
0.5
5.3
0.0
15.6
-0.8
5.9
0.0
-12.0
0.5
14.7
3.8
0.0
0.0

1.5
0.0
-17.4
3.2
2.6
1.2
1.8
0.5
2.5
7.3
0.0
1.5
0.0
1.2
1.9
0.5
2.5
7.3
1.9
2.1
0.0
-1.9
2.0
1.2
3.2
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

58.1

48.3

37.7

35.5

31.2

27.7

28.8

28.9

29.1

28.7

28.7

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

40.9
2.4
0.0
5.0
0.0
5.0

43.3
2.4
0.0
7.3
0.0
7.3

46.8
6.7
0.0
13.1
0.0
13.1

46.2
5.0
0.0
26.0
0.0
26.0

44.6
6.0
0.0
44.0
0.0
44.0

45.1
7.4
0.0
64.5
0.0
64.5

51.8
10.4
0.0
66.1
0.0
66.1

55.9
12.1
0.0
61.6
0.0
61.6

57.3
13.6
0.0
61.1
0.0
61.1

57.1
11.9
0.0
60.4
0.0
60.4

56.3
11.2
0.0
61.0
0.0
61.0

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

53.5
6.1
38.8
1.4
6.3
0.9

63.4
6.7
43.8
1.9
10.1
1.0

66.4
6.9
46.5
1.8
10.3
1.0

70.6
7.1
49.0
1.9
11.6
1.0

75.1
7.2
51.7
2.0
13.1
1.0

81.9
7.7
56.2
2.1
14.8
1.1

89.5
8.2
61.1
2.3
16.6
1.2

95.5
8.6
64.9
2.4
18.2
1.3

101.9
9.1
69.0
2.5
19.9
1.4

107.1
9.4
72.3
2.6
21.3
1.5

112.5
9.8
75.8
2.7
22.7
1.6

2.2
1.2
1.8
2.7
5.1
0.3

1.2
0.5
1.1
0.9
2.4
0.9

1.8
1.3
1.7
1.3
2.4
1.7

1.2
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

13.2
12.3
0.5
0.5

18.6
17.9
0.3
0.3

11.4
10.9
0.1
0.4

13.1
12.5
0.1
0.4

14.9
14.4
0.1
0.5

17.0
16.3
0.1
0.5

19.3
18.6
0.1
0.6

21.0
20.2
0.1
0.7

22.8
21.9
0.1
0.7

24.2
23.3
0.1
0.7

25.6
24.7
0.1
0.8

-1.5
-1.1
-15.4
-1.6

2.7
2.8
1.4
2.1

2.6
2.6
1.3
2.4

1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

4016
74
1965
1299
40
613
250

4994
79
2126
1893
42
836
180

4664
96
2292
1466
43
748
200

4902
98
2252
1672
45
814
210

4958
100
2070
1867
47
852
220

5025
104
1973
2014
49
863
240

5285
109
1950
2238
50
913
250

5509
113
1966
2382
51
970
270

5735
118
2011
2501
50
1025
290

5904
121
2061
2599
48
1045
300

6152
125
2130
2748
45
1073
310

1.5
2.7
1.6
1.2
0.8
2.0
-2.1
0.0

0.6
0.4
-1.0
2.4
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.0

0.6
0.8
-0.6
1.8
0.7
0.7
1.5
0.0

0.8
0.7
0.4
1.0
-0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

117

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Italy: Reference scenario


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

28491
4
5004
13627
0
9856
3801
1736
48
12
4259

28116
60
6527
9886
0
11642
3101
3518
202
30
4791

30583
64
6362
6885
0
17272
4395
7033
785
298
4762

43259
0
12467
8738
0
22053
4225
7820
1061
3144
5804

50276
0
13180
10139
0
26957
4205
9482
1802
4897
6571

49500
0
12678
7985
0
28837
4279
9276
3054
5684
6544

49909
0
12564
6795
0
30550
4385
9667
3803
6179
6516

47215
0
9135
5468
0
32612
4434
9503
4209
7892
6574

48881
0
7752
4371
0
36758
4412
10424
4545
9310
8068

48506
0
5843
2342
0
40321
4389
10690
4845
9760
10637

46431
0
4563
1463
0
40405
4361
10050
5181
9780
11033

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

153560
13133
89091
90943
-1852
47008
3813

161019
16367
79934
95086
-15153
59840
4227

149536
14301
68108
85163
-17056
61600
3797

130612
15347
53183
70454
-17271
56864
3070

120982
15095
49383
65573
-16190
50758
2854

119001
13947
47583
63054
-15471
51966
2394

118263
14012
47160
61721
-14560
51506
2215

119800
10101
49902
63551
-13649
54247
2028

120932
10053
50607
63392
-12785
53968
1882

125204
12521
51853
63813
-11961
53920
1819

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

175798
12550
91119
57945
0
3813
10371

188523
16461
84889
70651
0
4227
12295

175515
14170
70513
68057
0
3797
18977

170589
15347
62381
65591
0
3070
24200

167799
15095
59156
60845
0
2854
29849

164862
13947
56732
59839
0
2394
31949

164293
14012
55995
58152
0
2215
33919

163100
10101
55330
59507
0
2028
36134

165905
10053
54690
58099
0
1882
41181

7.1
51.8
33.0
0.0
5.9

8.7
45.0
37.5
0.0
6.5

8.1
40.2
38.8
0.0
10.8

9.0
36.6
38.4
0.0
14.2

9.0
35.3
36.3
0.0
17.8

8.5
34.4
36.3
0.0
19.4

8.5
34.1
35.4
0.0
20.6

6.2
33.9
36.5
0.0
22.2

269898
34969

296786
36143

298718
33042

319241
32343

320696
32590

333722
33226

350221
36712

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

49150
6045
18954
19668
438
4046
0

58911
10399
12079
29585
2270
4578
0

53965
9484
7365
28966
3527
4622
0

47466
11789
938
25790
3754
5194
0

45335
12357
757
21747
4545
5929
0

43045
11527
713
20347
4530
5929
0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

103181
97473
0
0
5709

107863
102914
176
0
4773

98336
92366
1466
95
4408

89690
84432
1900
96
3262

85774
80330
2933
96
2415

Energy Branch Consumption

7696

10052

9539

9106

Non-Energy Uses

8429

8608

9560

9570

126142

134621

124769

41069
26005
15064
27528
15026
42519

39858
25613
14245
31232
18668
44863

3586
57838
38022
23472
1424
1799
0

Annual % Change
Production (incl.recovery of products)
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

0.7
5.1
33.7 -100.0
2.4
7.6
-6.6
3.9
0.0
0.0
5.8
4.6
1.5
-0.4
15.0
3.0
32.1
8.7
37.4
32.3
1.1
3.3

-0.1
0.0
-0.5
-3.9
0.0
1.3
0.4
0.2
7.8
2.4
-0.1

-0.4
0.0
-4.9
-7.4
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.2
1.6
2.3
2.7

128919
12478
52162
63395
-11233
57131
1739

-0.3
0.9
-2.6
-0.7
24.9
2.7
0.0

-2.1
0.5
-3.2
-2.6
-0.5
-1.9
-2.8

-0.2
-0.7
-0.5
-0.6
-1.1
0.1
-2.5

0.4
-0.6
0.5
0.1
-1.3
0.5
-1.2

169704
12521
53972
55979
0
1819
45414

171237
12478
52954
58252
0
1739
45815

0.0
1.2
-2.5
1.6
0.0
0.0
6.2

-0.4
0.6
-1.7
-1.1
0.0
-2.8
4.6

-0.2
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
-2.5
1.3

0.2
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
-1.2
1.5

6.1
33.0
35.0
0.0
24.8

7.4
31.8
33.0
0.0
26.8

7.3
30.9
34.0
0.0
26.8

369286
37601

403151
45716

434790
54348

455481
58190

1.0
-0.6

0.7
-0.1

0.9
1.2

1.3
2.3

42588
11796
870
18889
5103
5929
0

40412
8044
832
20456
5152
5929
0

42722
8096
832
18685
7769
7339
0

46314
10664
924
16104
8814
9807
0

48238
10693
910
17661
8790
10185
0

0.9
4.6
-9.0
3.9
23.2
1.3
0.0

-1.7
2.7
-20.3
-2.8
2.6
2.5
0.0

-0.6
-0.5
1.4
-1.4
1.2
0.0
0.0

0.6
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
2.8
2.7
0.0

82503
77271
3020
118
2094

80979
75822
3146
117
1894

79166
74239
3070
119
1738

77371
72690
3018
35
1628

75810
71226
3029
34
1522

74039
69530
3040
32
1437

-0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-2.6

-1.4
-1.4
7.2
0.1
-5.8

-0.6
-0.6
0.7
2.0
-2.4

-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
-6.3
-1.4

8860

8552

8618

8328

8647

9005

9004

2.2

-0.7

-0.3

0.2

9796

9735

9816

9900

9977

10237

10491

1.3

0.2

0.0

0.3

125072

123585

122645

122251

122905

124437

125704

126375

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

31059
19287
11772
31395
20358
41957

32376
19889
12487
31639
19065
41992

32361
20009
12352
31881
18438
40905

32439
20025
12414
31425
18378
40403

32207
19824
12383
31119
18202
40724

32074
19731
12343
31105
18815
40911

32219
19816
12402
31530
19201
41488

32660
20090
12570
31883
19514
41647

32992
20074
12918
31568
19625
42190

-2.8
-2.9
-2.4
1.3
3.1
-0.1

0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
-1.0
-0.3

0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2

3980
59032
40609
25871
3082
2046
0

2910
48910
38499
25736
3332
5381
0

2299
47088
38372
26849
2718
7745
1

1851
44187
37401
26763
2785
10595
2

1672
42217
37702
27390
3084
10576
4

1548
41514
37378
28331
2931
10541
9

1443
40927
37217
29716
2940
10646
16

1376
40408
37608
31784
3326
9908
27

1309
39599
38035
33702
3111
9908
39

1263
38574
38707
35074
3232
9474
51

-2.1
-1.7
0.1
0.9
8.9
11.6
-16.5

-4.4
-1.0
-0.3
0.4
-1.8
7.0
140.9

-1.8
-0.6
0.0
0.6
0.5
-0.1
14.8

-1.0
-0.4
0.2
1.1
0.5
-0.5
9.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

5958

7312

12871

17715

22185

23382

24753

26981

30083

31460

32206

8.0

5.6

1.1

1.3

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

552.6

502.0
213.7
288.3
404.7
135.9
16.4
49.5
53.6
30.2
119.1
24.4
72.9

467.5
185.1
282.4
374.4
115.7
14.9
48.8
51.9
25.3
117.7
21.5
71.5

446.2
176.9
269.3
351.8
106.5
14.1
47.5
50.1
22.8
110.9
24.2
70.2

432.1
172.0
260.1
337.8
99.2
13.3
44.6
49.7
22.5
108.5
26.0
68.3

415.1
160.6
254.5
326.6
91.8
12.8
43.8
48.0
21.5
108.6
21.6
66.9

393.0
144.1
248.9
306.7
74.9
12.4
42.6
46.8
21.1
108.8
21.6
64.8

365.7
118.8
247.0
286.1
55.8
11.9
42.6
45.1
20.8
109.9
15.1
64.6

342.3
96.5
245.8
271.8
43.7
11.5
43.4
43.2
20.3
109.7
5.4
65.1

337.9
92.5
245.4
267.1
41.2
11.0
43.3
41.5
19.8
110.3
4.7
66.0

-1.0

434.9
137.1
15.9
79.9
53.4
24.4
124.3
28.6
89.1

591.7
262.6
329.1
470.5
158.5
18.4
72.5
59.9
29.3
131.9
30.8
90.3

-0.7
-0.1
0.4
-4.7
0.0
2.2
-0.4
-1.6
-2.0
0

-1.2
-1.9
-0.7
-1.4
-2.4
-1.5
-0.4
-0.7
-2.8
-0.7
-0.1
-0.4
0

-0.7
-1.0
-0.6
-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
-1.1
-0.5
0

-1.0
-2.7
-0.2
-1.0
-3.9
-0.8
-0.1
-0.7
-0.4
0.1
-7.3
-0.1
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

105.60

113.00

95.90

89.30

85.30

82.60

79.30

75.10

69.90

65.40

64.60

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

118

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Italy: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

56.924
1496.6
117.5
2.47
86.5

58.462
1571.6
120.0
2.50
84.4

60.340
1553.2
113.0
2.31
83.8

61.788
1605.3
106.3
2.19
75.1

62.877
1691.3
99.2
2.10
70.6

63.737
1824.6
90.4
2.05
70.6

64.491
1964.2
83.6
1.99
70.3

65.166
2093.8
77.9
1.88
71.7

65.694
2225.2
74.6
1.72
71.2

65.968
2374.1
71.5
1.60
72.1

65.915
2546.7
67.2
1.56
73.5

0.6
0.4
-0.4
-0.7

0.4
0.9
-1.3
-0.9

0.3
1.5
-1.7
-0.5

0.1
1.3
-1.1
-1.2

144.3
9.6

162.0
10.3

191.5
12.3

229.0
14.3

249.9
14.8

267.8
14.7

280.8
14.3

286.7
13.7

300.7
13.5

309.9
13.1

316.7
12.4

2.9

2.7

1.2

0.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
30.5
54.4

98.9
109.3
116.8
29.7
58.6

83.3
108.5
125.3
27.3
63.8

84.6
106.8
113.2
26.3
62.0

80.7
103.1
103.7
24.2
59.9

76.2
95.0
95.3
22.4
56.3

72.6
87.5
87.2
21.0
54.0

70.0
81.7
84.0
20.4
52.7

67.9
77.3
80.2
20.0
51.6

66.6
72.2
75.9
19.7
50.5

64.8
65.2
70.7
19.3
50.5

-1.8
0.8
2.3
-1.1
1.6

-0.3
-0.5
-1.9
-1.2
-0.6

-1.1
-1.6
-1.7
-1.4
-1.0

-0.6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.4
-0.3

0.47
2.23
1.94
1.94
1.62
2.92

0.45
2.18
1.82
1.92
1.57
2.94

0.38
2.02
1.59
1.71
1.49
2.84

0.31
1.95
1.51
1.64
1.33
2.80

0.29
1.87
1.47
1.57
1.24
2.71

0.26
1.84
1.38
1.58
1.22
2.69

0.23
1.82
1.36
1.54
1.18
2.67

0.18
1.78
1.33
1.50
1.12
2.66

0.12
1.75
1.32
1.43
1.08
2.65

0.09
1.72
1.33
1.36
1.04
2.63

0.08
1.70
1.31
1.32
1.01
2.61

-2.0
-1.0
-2.0
-1.3
-0.9
-0.3

-2.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-1.8
-0.5

-2.3
-0.3
-0.7
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2

-5.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.8
-0.1

4.6
0.3

5.3
0.9

10.0
4.7

13.8
6.4

17.5
10.2

18.6
11.2

19.7
12.0

21.4
12.4

23.4
13.0

24.1
13.4

24.5
13.9

269947
0
26272
85878
106398
1908
44205
563
18
4705
0
67866
0
13658
13212
427
19
0
54207
6476
0
8749
23807
20233
868
0
551

296839
0
43606
47124
156191
6152
36067
2344
31
5324
0
78649
0
15960
14209
1717
34
0
62689
7547
0
7864
36671
16046
1472
0
636

298772
0
39734
21713
158215
11586
51116
9126
1905
5377
0
104353
0
27098
17834
5793
3470
0
77255
8435
0
8676
54126
10546
3217
0
689

319241
0
54109
4929
154337
14623
49127
12333
23407
6377
0
116633
0
42001
18426
7371
16204
0
74632
7931
0
8950
55374
6221
3397
0
689

320696
0
59925
4014
130647
19632
48893
20954
29397
7232
0
119980
0
49300
18547
11200
19553
0
70680
8405
0
8688
53894
3706
3604
0
787

333722
0
57251
4065
121304
20122
49751
35514
38484
7232
0
132074
0
62175
18827
18005
25343
0
69898
9696
0
7087
54950
3461
3614
0
787

350221
0
60029
4896
115587
22864
50983
44223
44408
7232
0
139254
0
69979
19175
22598
28206
0
69275
9915
706
7733
54695
2394
3667
0
787

369286
0
44013
4662
126217
23266
51556
48940
63398
7232
0
144420
0
80970
19439
25258
36273
0
63450
9803
1343
5244
51611
2069
3740
0
787

403151
0
50548
4668
114993
38882
51298
52844
81045
8872
0
157462
0
92590
19503
27517
45570
0
64872
10512
3937
7833
47118
1959
6988
0
974

434790
0
70382
5305
111744
42384
51030
56337
85865
11742
0
157465
0
96516
19567
29205
47744
0
60950
10520
6894
10790
40027
1683
7148
0
1302

455481
0
70419
5255
128288
40636
50713
60243
87745
12181
0
153310
0
99067
19631
30931
48505
0
54244
10923
9351
10811
32017
1927
8137
0
1352

1.0
0.0
4.2
-12.8
4.0
19.8
1.5
32.1
59.4
1.3
0.0
4.4
0.0
7.1
3.0
29.8
68.3
0.0
3.6
2.7
0.0
-0.1
8.6
-6.3
14.0
0.0
2.3

0.7
0.0
4.2
-15.5
-1.9
5.4
-0.4
8.7
31.5
3.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
6.2
0.4
6.8
18.9
0.0
-0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-9.9
1.1
0.0
1.3

0.9
0.0
0.0
2.0
-1.2
1.5
0.4
7.8
4.2
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
3.6
0.3
7.3
3.7
0.0
-0.2
1.7
0.0
-1.2
0.1
-4.3
0.2
0.0
0.0

1.3
0.0
0.8
0.4
0.5
2.9
0.0
1.6
3.5
2.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
1.8
0.1
1.6
2.7
0.0
-1.2
0.5
13.8
1.7
-2.6
-1.1
4.1
0.0
2.7

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

43.2

41.2

31.5

30.2

29.5

27.9

27.7

28.2

27.9

29.8

31.9

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

39.4
8.3
0.0
19.0
0.0
19.0

37.7
9.0
0.0
16.8
0.0
16.8

37.7
11.5
0.0
26.5
0.0
26.5

42.5
12.2
0.0
33.2
0.0
33.2

42.0
14.2
0.0
39.3
0.0
39.3

42.0
16.2
0.0
45.3
0.0
45.3

42.5
16.6
2.0
48.5
0.0
48.5

43.7
16.2
3.6
52.6
0.0
52.6

43.9
15.6
9.5
57.8
0.0
57.8

44.9
15.0
15.5
56.9
0.0
56.9

45.8
14.5
19.2
55.2
0.0
55.2

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

943.0
93.4
755.9
55.2
33.5
5.0

931.4
101.0
726.5
56.5
42.7
4.7

952.9
102.9
740.5
55.6
49.4
4.5

971.6
104.3
747.8
58.2
56.6
4.6

990.7
105.2
754.7
60.7
65.5
4.7

1041.4
108.8
786.3
67.3
74.1
4.9

1094.8
113.0
818.0
74.8
83.9
5.1

1128.9
115.8
837.8
78.9
91.1
5.2

1164.1
118.6
857.8
83.1
99.2
5.3

1192.6
120.4
874.4
86.0
106.4
5.4

1221.3
122.2
890.9
88.8
113.9
5.5

0.1
1.0
-0.2
0.1
3.9
-0.9

0.4
0.2
0.2
0.9
2.9
0.2

1.0
0.7
0.8
2.1
2.5
0.9

0.5
0.4
0.4
0.9
1.5
0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

245.8
185.1
22.8
37.9

285.5
211.8
22.8
50.9

241.8
175.8
18.6
47.4

256.1
186.6
20.0
49.5

271.2
197.9
21.4
51.8

292.0
213.6
23.3
55.1

314.5
230.6
25.4
58.6

325.7
239.1
26.4
60.2

337.4
248.0
27.5
61.8

345.6
254.0
28.3
63.3

353.9
260.2
29.1
64.7

-0.2
-0.5
-2.0
2.3

1.2
1.2
1.4
0.9

1.5
1.5
1.7
1.2

0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

42174
1484
22919
12485
526
3491
12690

44403
1642
21483
15699
492
3700
13870

41415
1643
19791
14551
439
3863
11280

41386
1659
18953
14967
456
4189
11620

40273
1643
17259
15301
473
4406
11920

39742
1636
16355
15424
503
4581
12450

40033
1638
15874
15945
533
4747
12960

40200
1646
15609
16110
544
4979
13120

40756
1661
15629
16345
550
5243
13270

40897
1655
15702
16385
543
5278
13330

41421
1663
15877
16799
533
5213
13370

-0.2
1.0
-1.5
1.5
-1.8
1.0
-1.2
0.0

-0.3
0.0
-1.4
0.5
0.7
1.3
0.6
0.0

-0.1
0.0
-0.8
0.4
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.0

0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

119

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Latvia: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1411
16
2
0
0
1393
242
1150
0
0
0

1868
3
7
0
0
1858
286
1568
4
0
0

2116
2
2
0
0
2111
303
1804
4
0
0

2336
3
3
0
0
2330
270
2031
28
1
0

2643
3
2
0
0
2637
277
2279
80
1
0

2502
3
2
0
0
2498
287
2102
107
1
0

2527
3
2
0
0
2522
287
2096
137
2
0

2638
0
-1
0
0
2639
287
2199
149
3
0

2518
0
-1
0
0
2519
287
2062
167
3
0

2742
0
-1
0
0
2743
287
2270
182
4
0

2767
0
-1
0
0
2768
287
2266
211
4
0

4.1
2.2
-17.4
1.5
0.6
2.2
-89.9 -100.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
2.3
2.2
-0.9
4.6
2.4
28.5
34.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.4
0.5
-0.9 -100.0
-1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
-0.8
0.4
5.6
2.2
7.2
3.3
2.0
0.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

2239
61
1113
87
1026
1113
154

2989
77
1676
4
1672
1434
185

1993
112
1443
2
1442
903
75

2868
107
1824
1
1823
1461
29

2687
92
1797
1
1796
1306
58

2929
76
1850
1
1849
1405
75

2991
73
1914
1
1913
1429
67

2980
75
1947
1
1946
1374
95

3132
71
1968
1
1967
1451
112

2911
63
1982
1
1981
1275
111

2876
48
1982
1
1981
1267
92

-1.2
6.3
2.6
-31.9
3.5
-2.1
-6.9

3.0
-2.0
2.2
-6.7
2.2
3.8
-2.6

1.1
-2.3
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
1.5

-0.2
-2.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.6
1.6

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

3742
132
1173
1092
0
154
1191

4484
82
1379
1358
0
185
1481

4538
109
1293
1462
0
75
1599

4920
110
1544
1460
0
29
1776

5028
94
1503
1301
0
58
2072

5111
79
1541
1395
0
75
2020

5179
75
1590
1417
0
67
2031

5261
75
1609
1354
0
95
2127

5271
71
1616
1423
0
112
2049

5257
63
1617
1241
0
111
2225

5236
48
1612
1228
0
92
2255

1.9
-1.9
1.0
3.0
0.0
-6.9
3.0

1.0
-1.4
1.5
-1.2
0.0
-2.6
2.6

0.3
-2.2
0.6
0.9
0.0
1.5
-0.2

0.1
-2.2
0.1
-0.7
0.0
1.6
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

3.5
31.4
29.2
0.0
31.8

1.8
30.8
30.3
0.0
33.0

2.4
28.5
32.2
0.0
35.2

2.2
31.4
29.7
0.0
36.1

1.9
29.9
25.9
0.0
41.2

1.5
30.2
27.3
0.0
39.5

1.5
30.7
27.3
0.0
39.2

1.4
30.6
25.7
0.0
40.4

1.3
30.7
27.0
0.0
38.9

1.2
30.8
23.6
0.0
42.3

0.9
30.8
23.4
0.0
43.1

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

4135
1438

4905
1325

6626
1285

7642
1019

7651
1010

8171
1103

8714
1159

9048
1286

9773
1413

10180
1481

10582
1510

4.8
-1.1

1.4
-2.4

1.3
1.4

1.0
1.3

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

545
53
84
408
0
0
0

602
0
18
562
21
0
0

815
9
10
767
29
0
0

970
14
9
771
175
0
0

916
22
14
661
219
0
0

921
21
10
671
220
0
0

986
20
15
731
220
0
0

1054
20
13
647
375
0
0

1077
19
0
733
324
0
0

1145
15
0
590
540
0
0

1111
2
0
561
548
0
0

4.1
-15.9
-19.3
6.5
0.0
0.0
0.0

1.2
9.0
3.3
-1.5
22.4
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

570
0
0
569
1

478
0
3
476
0

382
0
27
355
0

433
0
47
386
0

506
0
95
410
1

558
0
90
467
2

532
0
84
444
3

538
0
87
447
4

515
0
87
425
3

471
0
84
384
3

515
0
91
422
3

Energy Branch Consumption

39

42

48

18

15

16

16

20

21

23

24

2.1

Non-Energy Uses

75

97

73

78

89

95

94

96

95

93

93

-0.3

3255

4021

4271

4371

4434

4495

4548

4575

4617

4590

4566

576
229
347
1327
603
750

699
282
417
1504
749
1069

774
305
469
1511
773
1213

761
310
451
1547
793
1269

804
339
465
1559
786
1285

816
354
462
1568
789
1323

820
341
478
1577
771
1380

825
346
479
1562
772
1416

819
345
474
1560
773
1465

808
337
470
1540
764
1478

62
1057
329
385
598
824
0

74
1325
508
493
603
1018
0

94
1456
498
534
579
1110
0

92
1448
492
599
619
1120
0

69
1391
472
629
611
1262
1

55
1426
509
683
658
1162
2

52
1471
503
716
673
1130
3

53
1490
514
763
685
1067
4

50
1515
515
831
680
1022
3

RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

1180

1378

1456

1595

1849

1782

1781

1805

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

10.2

6.8
2.6
0.0
1.0
0.3
0.7
2.2
0.2
3.2

11.6
3.0
8.5
7.7
2.2
0.0
1.1
0.4
0.8
3.2
0.3
3.6

12.5
3.8
8.7
8.4
2.4
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.8
3.6
0.6
3.6

12.1
3.7
8.3
8.3
2.4
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.8
3.7
0.6
3.2

11.5
3.5
7.9
7.8
2.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.8
3.5
0.6
3.1

12.0
3.8
8.2
8.0
2.2
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.8
3.6
0.6
3.3

12.1
3.9
8.2
8.2
2.3
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.7
3.8
0.6
3.3

12.0
3.7
8.3
8.1
2.1
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.7
3.9
0.5
3.4

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

38.10

43.20

46.80

45.00

42.80

44.80

45.30

44.80

Annual % Change

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-3.9
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.4
-4.6
1.4
-95.9 2264.8

0.7
0.6
-0.9
-10.1
0.7 -100.0
1.0
-1.3
0.1
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
-1.2
0.8
15.1

-0.2
0.0
0.4
-0.3
-0.7

-10.8

0.4

2.0

2.0

0.5

0.0

2.8

0.4

0.3

0.0

790
334
456
1530
748
1498

3.0
2.9
3.0
1.3
2.5
4.9

0.4
1.1
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.6

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.7

-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.4

47
1519
506
858
680
976
3

45
1515
508
872
677
946
3

4.2
3.3
4.2
3.3
-0.3
3.0
0.0

-3.1
-0.5
-0.5
1.6
0.5
1.3
0.0

-2.7
0.6
0.6
1.3
1.0
-1.1
15.3

-0.8
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
-0.9
0.0

1774

1916

1931

2.1

2.4

-0.4

0.4

12.3
3.9
8.4
8.3
2.2
0.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.5
3.5

11.9
3.5
8.4
7.8
1.8
0.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.5
3.5

11.8
3.4
8.4
7.7
1.7
0.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.5
3.6

2.1

2.0
-0.9
0.0
0.0
6.5
2.0
5.0
10.0
1.3
0

-0.9
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
-1.2
0.0
-1.5
-1.8
-1.1
0.0
0.1
-1.4
0

0.6
1.0
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.0
-0.3
0.7
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
0

-0.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.3
-1.5
0.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.5
0.3
-0.9
0.4
0

45.80

44.30

44.10

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)

Source: PRIMES

120

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Latvia: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

2.382
12.5
298.6
1.82
59.7

2.306
18.6
241.0
1.72
63.0

2.248
18.0
252.5
1.84
41.6

2.194
21.0
233.8
1.70
55.1

2.141
23.6
213.1
1.54
50.4

2.083
26.4
193.3
1.57
53.9

2.022
29.7
174.5
1.58
54.2

1.963
32.1
163.9
1.54
53.0

1.909
34.4
153.4
1.57
55.4

1.854
36.0
146.2
1.49
51.5

1.797
36.7
142.5
1.47
51.0

-0.6
3.7
-1.7
0.1

-0.5
2.8
-1.7
-1.8

-0.6
2.3
-2.0
0.3

-0.6
1.1
-1.0
-0.4

2.0
16.1

3.2
17.0

4.6
25.6

5.7
26.9

6.6
27.8

7.2
27.1

7.9
26.6

8.4
26.2

8.8
25.6

9.3
25.8

9.7
26.4

8.6

3.6

1.9

1.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
34.5
11.6

87.7
74.7
83.0
34.2
16.6

107.1
73.9
83.4
30.4
19.5

86.1
62.6
72.8
29.0
19.4

86.1
55.3
63.6
26.7
18.7

82.8
49.0
56.2
24.9
17.8

77.5
43.6
48.3
23.3
17.2

74.9
39.9
44.4
22.3
16.6

72.0
37.4
41.1
21.9
15.9

69.3
35.4
38.7
21.6
15.4

68.1
34.6
36.9
21.4
15.0

0.7
-3.0
-1.8
-1.2
5.4

-2.2
-2.9
-2.7
-1.3
-0.4

-1.0
-2.3
-2.7
-1.4
-0.9

-0.6
-1.2
-1.3
-0.4
-0.7

0.21
1.29
1.80
0.22
1.14
2.93

0.17
1.37
1.55
0.29
1.10
2.97

0.16
1.40
1.34
0.37
1.08
2.93

0.15
1.36
1.25
0.35
1.01
2.88

0.13
1.27
1.11
0.29
0.96
2.76

0.13
1.29
1.13
0.28
0.99
2.76

0.13
1.30
1.05
0.31
0.97
2.75

0.12
1.31
1.06
0.33
0.95
2.73

0.12
1.31
1.02
0.34
0.92
2.72

0.09
1.31
0.99
0.34
0.91
2.71

0.09
1.32
0.99
0.34
0.91
2.68

-2.2
0.8
-2.9
5.1
-0.5
0.0

-2.1
-1.0
-1.9
-2.1
-1.3
-0.6

-0.3
0.2
-0.5
0.6
0.1
0.0

-2.0
0.1
-0.3
0.5
-0.3
-0.1

33.2
0.7

32.1
0.8

32.2
3.0

35.0
5.2

40.0
10.4

38.0
10.6

37.4
10.7

37.6
11.8

36.6
12.0

39.7
12.7

40.3
14.2

4136
0
78
107
1128
0
2819
4
0
0
0
1944
0
1499
1497
2
0
0
444
254
0
31
331
79
3
0
0

4906
0
0
6
1486
41
3326
47
0
0
0
2053
0
1544
1517
27
0
0
509
400
0
30
412
49
18
0
0

6627
0
2
2
2988
66
3520
49
0
0
0
2504
0
1587
1557
30
0
0
917
1079
0
40
773
51
54
0
0

7642
0
68
53
3258
792
3144
326
1
0
0
3113
0
1791
1635
155
1
0
1322
1133
0
16
1070
53
183
0
0

7651
0
84
50
2383
982
3224
927
1
0
0
3577
0
2101
1672
428
1
0
1476
1140
0
18
1167
66
225
0
0

8171
0
98
50
2459
986
3336
1241
1
0
0
3754
0
2280
1733
545
1
0
1474
1140
0
16
1167
66
225
0
0

8714
0
81
50
2681
963
3342
1594
1
0
0
3927
0
2415
1733
681
1
0
1511
1159
0
16
1204
67
225
0
0

9048
0
75
46
2114
1734
3342
1735
2
0
0
4108
0
2458
1733
723
2
0
1650
1178
0
16
1229
67
338
0
0

9773
0
78
0
2839
1578
3334
1942
2
0
0
4154
0
2525
1733
790
2
0
1629
1185
0
16
1215
37
361
0
0

10180
0
56
0
2390
2275
3337
2121
2
0
0
4281
0
2583
1733
848
2
0
1697
1343
0
16
1235
37
409
0
0

10582
0
10
0
2483
2293
3339
2455
2
0
0
4468
0
2715
1733
980
2
0
1753
1395
0
16
1269
13
454
0
0

4.8
0.0
-30.7
-32.8
10.2
0.0
2.2
28.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
0.0
0.6
0.4
29.4
0.0
0.0
7.5
15.6
0.0
2.4
8.8
-4.4
35.8
0.0
0.0

1.4
0.0
45.2
38.0
-2.2
31.0
-0.9
34.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
0.0
2.8
0.7
30.5
0.0
0.0
4.9
0.5
0.0
-7.4
4.2
2.6
15.3
0.0
0.0

1.3
1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-9.8
0.0 -100.0
1.2
-0.4
-0.2
4.4
0.4
0.0
5.6
2.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.7
1.8
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.9
0.0
0.0
-1.3
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
-7.7
0.0
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Avg. Load factor of net power capacity (F) (%)

21.7

24.6

27.7

27.3

23.8

24.3

24.8

24.5

26.2

26.4

26.3

Electricity indicators
Efficiency of gross thermal power generation (%)
% of gross electricity from CHP
% of electricity from CCS
Carbon free gross electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms

20.7
31.4
0.0
68.3
0.0
68.3

21.9
30.7
0.0
69.6
0.0
69.6

32.3
45.0
0.0
54.9
0.0
54.9

37.0
48.6
0.0
55.8
0.0
55.8

32.9
31.0
0.0
67.1
0.0
67.1

33.5
32.6
0.0
68.1
0.0
68.1

32.9
32.2
0.0
67.7
0.0
67.7

32.4
30.6
0.0
75.3
0.0
75.3

35.9
37.1
0.0
70.1
0.0
70.1

35.5
36.2
0.0
76.0
0.0
76.0

37.1
33.9
0.0
76.4
0.0
76.4

Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

15.4
2.3
11.8
1.0
0.3
0.0

17.3
2.9
12.4
1.2
0.8
0.0

21.8
2.0
16.9
0.9
2.0
0.0

23.1
2.1
17.6
1.0
2.5
0.0

24.5
2.2
18.2
1.1
3.1
0.0

26.4
2.3
19.0
1.2
3.9
0.0

28.4
2.5
19.8
1.4
4.8
0.0

30.3
2.6
20.6
1.5
5.7
0.0

32.1
2.7
21.1
1.6
6.6
0.0

33.3
2.8
21.3
1.8
7.4
0.0

34.5
2.9
21.4
1.9
8.4
0.0

3.5
-1.7
3.7
-1.2
20.5
0.0

1.2
1.0
0.7
2.2
4.5
0.0

1.5
1.2
0.8
2.4
4.6
0.0

1.0
0.7
0.4
1.6
2.8
0.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

18.1
4.8
13.3
0.0

28.2
8.4
19.8
0.0

27.8
10.6
17.2
0.1

30.3
11.5
18.7
0.1

33.1
12.6
20.4
0.1

36.8
14.0
22.7
0.1

41.0
15.5
25.3
0.1

43.8
16.5
27.1
0.1

46.8
17.6
29.1
0.1

48.1
18.0
30.0
0.1

49.4
18.4
30.9
0.1

4.4
8.3
2.6
202.9

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7

2.2
2.1
2.2
3.0

0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe) (G)

740
24
479
141
69
27
00

1060
29
505
380
87
59
00

1206
20
524
467
71
118
70

1259
21
505
509
72
144
80

1274
22
461
538
73
172
80

1311
23
432
570
75
202
90

1367
24
415
616
77
224
110

1402
25
405
636
79
245
120

1449
26
403
655
79
273
120

1462
26
398
653
77
295
120

1481
27
392
657
74
320
130

5.0
-1.6
0.9
12.7
0.2
15.9
0.0
0.0

0.6
0.8
-1.3
1.4
0.3
3.9
1.5
0.0

0.7
0.9
-1.0
1.4
0.6
2.7
2.7
0.0

0.4
0.5
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
1.8
0.7
0.0

Total energy-rel. and other mitigation costs

(B)

(in 000 M10)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Residential (Energy on Private Income, index 2000=100)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added, index 2000=100)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport (C)
Indicators for renewables
Share of RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (D) (%)
RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by source (in GWhe)
Nuclear energy
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass-waste
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal and other renewables
Other fuels (hydrogen, methanol)
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Hydrogen plants
Geothermal heat

(E)

Transport sector

Public road transport


Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES

EU Reference scenario 2013

121

APPENDIX 2

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

Lithuania: Reference scenario

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50

Production (incl.recovery of products)


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

3275
12
358
0
2223
682
29
653
0
0
0

3903
20
269
0
2713
902
39
860
0
0
3

1318
9
125
0
0
1185
46
1114
19
0
5

1325
8
89
0
0
1228
41
1158
28
1
0

1489
6
65
0
0
1418
50
1337
28
2
0

3123
5
51
0
1802
1265
51
1179
30
4
0

4144
5
41
0
2597
1501
53
1409
34
6
0

4251
5
35
0
2610
1602
66
1476
53
7
0

4387
5
26
0
2636
1720
68
1513
132
7
0

4436
5
8
0
2636
1787
68
1568
143
8
0

4468
5
0
0
2636
1828
69
1595
155
8
0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

4337
87
2307
4842
-2535
2065
-115

5101
191
2681
9082
-6401
2492
-255

5737
182
2691
9347
-6656
2484
515

5866
205
2468
8784
-6316
3092
227

5714
160
2509
8435
-5926
3039
117

4920
163
2389
7949
-5560
2506
-43

4570
163
2424
7602
-5178
2497
-387

4564
169
2420
7220
-4800
2507
-395

4563
177
2407
6833
-4426
2588
-470

4605
179
2408
6458
-4050
2619
-462

4677
178
2455
6126
-3671
2625
-443

2.8
7.6
1.6
6.8
10.1
1.9
0.0

0.0
-1.2
-0.7
-1.0
-1.2
2.0
-13.8

-2.2
0.1
-0.3
-1.0
-1.3
-1.9
0.0

0.1
0.4
0.1
-1.1
-1.7
0.2
0.7

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

7160
98
2214
2064
2223
-115
675

8790
202
2773
2476
2713
-255
882

6864
205
2587
2492
0
515
1065

7044
213
2411
3091
0
227
1102

7053
166
2427
3035
0
117
1307

7890
168
2294
2499
1802
-43
1171

8563
168
2323
2489
2597
-387
1373

8661
174
2313
2495
2610
-395
1464

8794
182
2294
2571
2636
-470
1581

8880
184
2277
2598
2636
-462
1648

8977
182
2312
2600
2636
-443
1690

-0.4
7.6
1.6
1.9
-100.0
0.0
4.7

0.3
-2.1
-0.6
2.0
0.0
-13.8
2.1

2.0
0.1
-0.4
-2.0
0.0
0.0
0.5

0.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
1.0

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

1.4
30.9
28.8
31.1
9.4

2.3
31.5
28.2
30.9
10.0

3.0
37.7
36.3
0.0
15.5

3.0
34.2
43.9
0.0
15.6

2.4
34.4
43.0
0.0
18.5

2.1
29.1
31.7
22.8
14.8

2.0
27.1
29.1
30.3
16.0

2.0
26.7
28.8
30.1
16.9

2.1
26.1
29.2
30.0
18.0

2.1
25.6
29.3
29.7
18.6

2.0
25.8
29.0
29.4
18.8

11119
3076

14412
2783

4993
2003

8739
1778

9969
1656

12697
2131

18086
2533

18981
2564

20858
2709

21623
2836

22081
2937

-7.7
-4.2

7.2
-1.9

6.1
4.3

1.0
0.7

Fuel Inputs to Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

917
0
200
716
1
0
0

1227
0
178
1044
5
0
0

1282
0
100
1117
65
0
0

1810
0
8
1700
101
0
0

2058
0
15
1934
109
0
0

1437
0
15
1334
87
0
0

1700
0
21
1397
282
0
0

1672
0
26
1343
303
0
0

1764
0
30
1404
329
0
0

1816
0
31
1436
348
0
0

1791
0
33
1425
333
0
0

3.4
-100.0
-6.7
4.5
59.8
0.0
0.0

4.8
0.0
-17.5
5.6
5.3
0.0
0.0

-1.9
0.0
3.4
-3.2
10.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.0
2.4
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.0

Fuel Input to other conversion processes


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Derived gases, cokeries etc.

8007
5120
0
653
2235

12723
9471
4
519
2730

9999
9454
45
498
2

9504
8978
55
469
2

9305
8748
131
425
1

10745
8363
125
454
1802

11209
8049
124
437
2598

11045
7775
120
540
2611

10822
7547
119
518
2637

10569
7292
118
522
2637

10386
7069
120
559
2637

2.2
6.3
0.0
-2.7
-49.9

-0.7
-0.8
11.3
-1.6
-7.2

1.9
-0.8
-0.5
0.3
118.2

-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
1.2
0.1

Energy Branch Consumption

613

854

722

675

655

649

669

653

651

647

643

1.6

-1.0

0.2

-0.2

Non-Energy Uses

662

804

714

626

584

566

558

554

553

548

547

0.8

-2.0

-0.4

-0.1

3772

4614

4751

4976

4940

4912

4946

5020

5126

5209

5293

2.3

0.4

0.0

0.3

780
363
417
1369
568
1055

995
443
552
1512
677
1431

897
487
410
1584
720
1548

1048
571
477
1615
725
1588

1037
581
456
1584
712
1607

1060
593
468
1559
702
1591

1087
608
479
1563
706
1590

1117
623
493
1590
710
1603

1166
644
523
1615
707
1638

1211
656
555
1634
709
1655

1227
655
572
1700
688
1679

1.4
3.0
-0.2
1.5
2.4
3.9

1.5
1.8
1.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4

0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1

0.6
0.4
0.9
0.4
-0.1
0.3

88
1355
363
533
828
605
0

192
1614
519
686
905
698
0

199
1609
567
716
922
737
0

205
1620
558
771
1021
801
0

157
1607
459
779
1016
922
0

160
1588
517
813
1034
800
0

159
1573
487
899
1044
783
1

165
1572
503
965
1046
767
1

174
1560
527
1039
1047
778
1

176
1565
535
1101
1045
785
2

174
1598
548
1150
1014
807
2

8.5
1.7
4.6
3.0
1.1
2.0
-5.7

-2.4
0.0
-2.1
0.8
1.0
2.3
41.7

0.1
-0.2
0.6
1.4
0.3
-1.6
16.9

0.5
0.1
0.6
1.2
-0.1
0.2
6.1

Annual % Change

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-8.7
1.2
-3.0
-3.8
-10.0
-6.3
0.0 -100.0
-100.0
0.0
5.7
1.8
4.7
0.8
5.5
1.8
0.0
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-29.5

10.8
0.4
-1.3
-0.6
-4.6 -100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.0
0.5
1.3
0.5
0.6
1.7
8.0
10.7
2.0
2.2
-0.1

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Renewable energy forms
Other fuels (hydrogen, ethanol)
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (A)

754

864

995

1058

1248

1098

1185

1254

1361

1429

1442

2.8

2.3

-0.5

1.0

TOTAL GHG emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors (2013 scope) GHG emissions
of which non ETS sectors GHG emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHG emissions

19.2

21.0
8.3
12.7
12.2
3.7
1.6
1.2
0.7
0.6
4.5
1.6
7.2

21.8
9.7
12.1
13.4
4.8
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.5
4.6
1.9
6.5

21.7
9.8
11.8
13.2
5.1
1.5
1.2
0.5
0.4
4.4
2.1
6.3

20.0
8.3
11.7
11.6
3.8
1.2
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.3
2.1
6.3

19.6
8.2
11.5
11.7
3.9
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.3
1.7
6.2

19.7
8.2
11.5
11.7
3.9
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.3
1.7
6.3

19.8
8.4
11.4
11.9
4.0
1.3
1.4
0.5
0.4
4.4
1.7
6.2

19.8
8.4
11.4
11.9
4.0
1.3
1.5
0.5
0.4
4.4
1.7
6.2

20.0
8.4
11.6
12.1
4.0
1.2
1.5
0.5
0.4
4.4
1.6
6.4

0.9

10.3
4.0
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.5
3.1
1.6
7.3

23.1
10.6
12.6
12.5
3.9
1.7
1.4
0.7
0.6
4.2
1.7
8.9

1.7
-0.7
3.8
0.7
2.9
1.8
3.7
0.2
-0.2
0

0.3
1.7
-0.7
0.8
3.4
-0.5
0.7
-3.4
-3.1
-0.3
3.0
-1.3
0

-1.0
-1.8
-0.3
-1.2
-2.8
-1.4
1.1
-0.7
-1.3
-0.2
-2.2
-0.2
0

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.1
0

TOTAL GHG emissions Index (1990=100)

38.40

46.50

42.20

43.80

43.50

40.10

39.40

39.50

39.80

39.80

40.20

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Source: PRIMES

122

EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050

APPENDIX 2

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


2000

Lithuania: Reference scenario


2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'50


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 M10)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M10)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %

3.512
18.0
398.1
1.44
59.8

3.425
26.2
335.9
1.42
57.1

3.329
27.5
249.3
1.78
81.9

3.246
32.4
217.5
1.90
81.6

3.180
35.1
201.2
1.87
79.3

3.115
38.1
207.0
1.47
61.2

3.044
41.8
204.9
1.37
52.4

2.977
45.3
191.4
1.35
51.8

2.922
49.3
178.5
1.35
51.0

2.869
53.0
167.5
1.34
50.9

2.812
55.6
161.5
1.34
51.1

-0.5
4.4
-4.6
2.2

-0.5
2.4
-2.1
0.5

-0.4
1.8
0.2
-3.1

-0.4
1.4
-1.2
-0.1

2.9
15.9

4.2
16.0

6.1
22.2

7.4
22.8

8.4
24.1

9.4
24.6

9.9
23.7

10.2
22.6

10.6
21.6

11.0
20.8

11.4
20.6

7.9

3.3

1.6

0.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
23.8
20.1

80.3
72.3
88.2
20.5
20.6

61.3
75.7
87.1
23.1
21.7

61.0
64.0
73.1
21.9
21.