A Pareto Analysis of the Growth Priorities for Emerging India

N Jayarama Shetty
Professor, Nitte School of Management, Gollahalli, Govindapura, Bangalore
A report by National Intelligence Council (Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds) predicts
that India will have been the 3
rd
largest economy of the world by 2030. It further says that
Indias GDP will grow from its current $ 1.8 trillion to 30 trillion level by 2030. The terms
Emerging Market and Emerging Economy are often made use of interchangeably. However
the operating definition of Emerging Market goes as, Emerging Market is a Nation with
Social and Business activity in the process of rapid growth and Industrialisation.

International Monetary Fund (July 16, 2010) labels India as Emerging Economy from among
24 countries. The term Emerging Markets was first brought into usage by Antonio Van
Agtmal in the year 1980. Ever since, the term is being loosely used to replace Emerging
Economies. Some economists term Emerging Economy as a phase between developing and
developed status. By 2010, 50 countries with more than 60% of population and 45% of GDP
matched these requirements. So far as India is concerned, the following 5 major sectors are
poised to grow so as to help Her reach the Developed Nation status by another one decade.
They are Information Technology, Telecom sector, Health care, Infrastructure and Retail

The scope of the full paper
As we can see, the list of 5 above does not include MSME which is a major sector to reckon
with. MSMEs accounting for 45% of manufacturing output, and 40% of exports ( Report by
Working Group on MSMEs growth, 2011) need to be recognised as a thrust area. The paper
will therefore investigate into the lop sided priorities with which Indian Economy is taken
forward. Pareto analysis by Wilfred Pareto, an Italian economist and philosopher, talks about
the malaise of choosing trivial many in the place of vital few. The growth pattern of the
present key sectors which enjoy the patronage vis-a-vis those left behind will be looked at
critically and analysed. The full conference paper will make an attempt to recast the growth
priorities in the light of possibilities and imperatives. The changing demographic profile will
be duly considered while suggesting new priorities alongside the existing one.

Methodology
1. Sectoral analysis of the investment vis-a-vis contribution to GDP will be undertaken
beginning from the advent of economic reforms and the findings and reported to form a
part of the full paper
2. Source documents will be properly and adequately acknowledged
3. A pareto chart will be drawn based on the table of relative importance of each of the sectors