GULAPA, Patricia Ann E.

3FM3
15.19
Both Period
Yt=9.1560 + 1.0876 Y t-1 - 0.0617 Y tR 2 = 0.8947 = 89.47 %
Se = 47.8662

Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Housing Starts (1000)

333.0
270.4
281.1
443.0
432.3
428.9
443.2
413.1
391.6
361.5
318.1
308.4
382.2
419.5
453.0
430.3
468.5
464.2
521.9
550.4
529.7
556.9
606.5
670.1
745.5
756.1
826.8

One Period Lagged

Yt= -8.8662 + 1.0605 lag 1
R 2 = 0.8922 = 89.22 %
Se = 48.5166

One Period Lagged

333.0
270.4
281.1
443.0
432.3
428.9
443.2
413.1
391.6
361.5
318.1
308.4
382.2
419.5
453.0
430.3
468.5
464.2
521.9
550.4
529.7
556.9
606.5
670.1
745.5
756.1

Two Period Lagged

Yt= 13.6561 + 1.0569 lag 2
R 2 = 0.7588 = 75.88 %
Se = 70.8419

Two Period Lagged

333.0
270.4
281.1
443.0
432.3
428.9
443.2
413.1
391.6
361.5
318.1
308.4
382.2
419.5
453.0
430.3
468.5
464.2
521.9
550.4
529.7
556.9
606.5
670.1
745.5

GULAPA, Patricia Ann E.

3FM3
15.20
Both Period
Yt= 391.6099 + 0.3772 Y t-1 + 0.3765 Y t-2
R 2= 0.6260 = 62.6%
Se= 205. 1758

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

One Period Lagged

Yt= 416.1368 + 0.7214 lag 1
R 2 = 0.6133 = 61.33 %
Se = 215. 3764

Processed Juice
598
768
863
818
841
1140
1285
1418
1235
1255
1445
1336
1226
1135
1893
1372
1547
1450
1557
1742
1736
1886
1857
1582
1675

Two Period Lagged

Yt= 551.6544 + 0.6449 lag 2
R 2 = 0.5625 = 56.25%
Se = 216. 5797

One Period Lagged

598
768
863
818
841
1140
1285
1418
1235
1255
1445
1336
1226
1135
1893
1372
1547
1450
1557
1742
1736
1886
1857
1582

Two Period Lagged

598
768
863
818
841
1140
1285
1418
1235
1255
1445
1336
1226
1135
1893
1372
1547
1450
1557
1742
1736
1886
1857

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9458699
R Square
0.89466987
Adjusted R Square
0.8850944
Standard Error
47.8661613
Observations
25
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
22
24

SS
MS
F
Significance F
428144.1996 214072.1 93.43355
1.77043E-11
50405.72681 2291.169
478549.9264

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value
9.15600922
38.89359091 0.235412 0.816067
1.08760655
0.204160365 5.327217 2.39E-05
-0.06172883
0.226135107 -0.27297 0.78742

Lower 95%
Upper 95%
-71.50436112 89.81638
0.66420387 1.5110092
-0.530704335 0.4072467

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-71.5043611 89.81637955
0.66420387 1.511009233
-0.53070434 0.407246677

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.94457148
R Square
0.89221529
Adjusted R Square
0.88772426
Standard Error
48.5166238
Observations
26
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
24
25

SS
MS
F
Significance F
467632.7147 467632.7 198.6661 4.176E-13
56492.70685 2353.863
524125.4215

Coefficients Standard Error

-8.8661549
35.94746522
1.0604638
0.075237434

t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
-0.24664 0.807283 -83.058076 65.325766
14.0949 4.18E-13 0.9051814 1.2157462

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-83.0580761 65.32576633
0.905181368 1.215746229

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.8710899
R Square
0.7587976
Adjusted R Square
0.7483106
Standard Error
70.841947
Observations
25
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
23
24

SS
MS
F
Significance F
363122.5532 363122.6 72.35562 1.473E-08
115427.3732 5018.581
478549.9264

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
13.656089
57.54895914 0.237295 0.814529
-105.393 132.70518
1.0568547
0.124245073 8.50621 1.47E-08 0.7998342 1.3138753

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-105.393003 132.7051805
0.79983422 1.313875252

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.79123025
R Square
0.62604531
Adjusted R Square
0.58864984
Standard Error
205.175834
Observations
23
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
20
22

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1409513.365 704756.7 16.74121 5.348E-05
841942.4607 42097.12
2251455.826

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
391.609852
183.0845632 2.138956 0.04496 9.7021465 773.517557
0.37719618
0.204585189 1.843712 0.080094 -0.049561 0.8039534
0.37653906
0.187095729 2.012548 0.057824 -0.0137358 0.76681391

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

9.70214646
773.5175574
-0.04956105
0.803953404
-0.01373579
0.766813907

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.78315079
R Square
0.61332516
Adjusted R Square
0.59574903
Standard Error
215.376386
Observations
24
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
22
23

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1618690.107 1618690.107 34.89535
6.05287E-06
1020513.726 46386.98756
2639203.833

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value
416.136844 168.5907351 2.468325698 0.021822
0.72142303 0.122125466 5.907228514 6.05E-06

Lower 95%
Upper 95%
66.50106058 765.772628
0.468150321 0.97469575

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

66.5010606 765.7726275
0.46815032 0.974695747

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.749991058
R Square
0.562486588
Adjusted R Square
0.541652616
Standard Error
216.5797028
Observations
23
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
21
22

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1266413.705 1266414 26.99853 3.778E-05
985042.1214 46906.77
2251455.826

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
551.6543843
170.1573738 3.242025 0.003903 197.79276 905.516013
0.6448689
0.12410846 5.196011 3.78E-05 0.3867712 0.90296657

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

197.792755 905.516013
0.38677123 0.90296657