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2013/14 Term 2
Solutions to Practice Problems (Chapter 3)
Problem 1:
(a) 0.2+a+0.1+a+0.2=1 => a = (1-0.5)/2=0.25
(b) E(X) = 0.2(-1)+0.25(0)+0.1(1)+0.25(2)+0.2(3)=1.0
E(X2) = 0.2(1)+0.25(0)+0.1(1)+0.25(4)+0.2(9)=3.1 => Var(X)=E(X2)-[E(X)]2=2.1
(c) Pr(X<1)=Pr(X=-1)+Pr(X=0)=0.2+0.25=0.45, F(0)=Pr(X<1)=0.45
(d) Var(Y)=Var(6-2X)=Var(2X)=4Var(X)=8.4
(e)
Pr(XY)=Pr(X=3)+ Pr(X=2)=0.2+0.25=0.45
Problem 3: (a)
Pr( X
Pr( X
Pr( X
Pr( X
0) 1 / 8
Pr( X
Pr( X
1) 3 / 8
2) 3 / 8 Pr( X
Pr( X
3) 1 / 8
0) 1 / 8
1) 4 / 8 1 / 2
2) 7 / 8
3) 8 / 8 1
(b) E(X)=1(3/8)+2(3/8)+3(1/8)=1.5
(d) The expected number of girls will have 3 or more episodes in the first 2 years of life is
E(Y)=np=2(0.6201)=1.2402
Problem 14:
(a) Let X be the number of woman with positive bacteriuria out of 5 women. Then
X~Binomial(5,0.04). Hence, Pr(X1)=1-Pr(X=0)=1-(0.96)5=1-0.8154=0.1846.
(b) Let Y be the number of woman with positive bacteriuria out of 100 women. Then
Y~Binomial(100,0.04). Since n20, p<0.1, np=100(0.04)=4<5, one can approximate the
Binomial distribution Y by a Possion distribution W~Poisson(np=100x0.4)=Poisson(4).
Therefore, Pr(Y 3) Pr(W 3) 1 Pr(W 0) Pr(W 1) Pr(W 2) 1 e 4 (1 4 42 / 2) 0.7619
** Note that Pr(Y3)=1-Pr(Y=0) -Pr(Y=1) -Pr(Y=2)=1-(0.96)100-100(0.04)(0.96)99
-(100)(99)/2(0.04)2 ( 0.96)98 =1-0.0169-0.0703-0.1450=0.7678
Hence, the approximation is good for up to 2 decimal places.
(c) Let U be the number of bacteriuria at time 0. Then U~Binomial(10,0.04). Now
10
Pr(U 1) (0.04)(1 0.04) 9 0.2770
1
Let V be the number of bacteriuria at time 1 and A be the woman with positive
bacteriuria at time 0. Now, consider two cases:
(i)
If the same women will have bacteriurias in time 1, then
Pr(V 1 | U 1)
Pr({A positive at time 1} {other 9 women are negative at time 1})
Pr({A negative at time 1}) Pr({1 of the other 9 women is positive at time 1})
(because of independence)
(because of independence)
0.80(0.2682) 0.2145
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