6.5 THE IMPACT OF INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ON THE CUDECO REGISTER
DISCLAIMER: All Information presented as shareholder research has been sourced from broker trading records and Cudeco registry records. While the author considers the data to be accurate and the summaries presented as also being an accurate reflection of trading, no guarantees are given as to the reliability of data or any conclusions put forward. Shareholders and investors are encouraged to do their own Due Diligence and to make up their own minds in regard to any trends present in the trading data. 2
REFERENCE LINKS TO PREVIOUS RESEARCH PAPERS
Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Why Blog? 1.2 The Current Situation 1.3 Blog Content Chapter 2: An Overview of Trends Associated With 15 Months of Trading 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Trading Trends Over a 15 Month Period Chapter 3: Trading Trends Leading up to Aug 18, 2010 3.1 Trading Leading Up to the Aug 18 Resource Upgrade 3.2 An Analysis of Price Under-Performance During Jan-Feb 2010 3.3 Market Manipulation Issues, 7.5 Months of Auction Investigations and Down Tick Analysis 3.4 A Review of June/July 2006 JORC Issues 3.5 Market Reactions to Significant Announcements 2010 3.6 The 2010 Resource Estimate and Issues Related to JORC Code Compliance Chapter 4: Trading that Occurred Following the Aug 18, 2010 Resource Upgrade 4.1 Historic Trends and Aug 18, 2010 Trading Data Chapter 5: Trading Updates 5.1 Short Position Update - Nov 1, 2011 5.2 Registry Update as at Nov 3, 2011 5.3 Market Update Nov 14 5.4 Summary of Issues Plus Trading Anomalies During November 2011 and in a Broader Context Chapter 6: Registry Anomalies 6.1 An Overview of Monthly Registry Anomalies Spanning 2 Years of Trading 6.2 Increased Registry Activity Versus ASX Buying and Selling 6.3 Trading Featuring Substantially Increased Registry Activity Over ASX Activity - Part 2 6.4 Trading Featuring Substantially Increased ASX Activity Over Registry Activity.
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Issues that have emerged in 2.5 years of trading in CuDeco Limited concerning the impact that institutional shareholders have had in the market and on the register are summarized below. Further concerns will be brought to notice in forthcoming blogs.
a. Cartel Concerns: The trading of sophisticated institutional investors over a two and a half year period has the hallmarks of a cartel controlling all aspects of trading. The monopoly over trading has resulted in trading statistics such as: 5 Institutional shareholders accounting for : o 70% of all registry movements over 2.5 years, and; o 85% of all registry activity over the first 6 months of 2012. 2 institutional shareholders in their own right accounting for: o 50% of all registry activity over 2.5 years and; o 70% of all registry activity over the first 6 months of 2012. Institutional dealings are characterized by high levels of churn with shares being passed back and forth between each other resulting in extraordinary registry share flows such as:
The symmetry of share flows and the ease by which large volumes of selling and buying have been accommodated by the market are difficult to reconcile with genuine trading and suggest that the market has been dominated by fund managers pursuing suspicious investment objectives. Note: Registry activity includes trades that have occurred on the ASX and subsequently settled, but it also includes trades that have occurred away from the ASX such as through Dark Pools.
b. Transparency Concerns: The system of trading and settlements, while purportedly fair and transparent has resulted in only 27.6% of the buying and selling by brokers over 2.5 years being able to be reconciled on the register against the shareholders they have acted for. Trades that do reconcile are generally associated with retail investors. .
c. Increasing levels of institutional ownership coinciding with aberrant trading trends: Accompanying the dominance over trading by institutions, concerning irregularities between broker activity and registry activity and a flat and unresponsive share price, there has been an increase in ownership by the 5 institutional investors of 51.4 million shares. Combined institutional ownership has increased from 19% of the register in January 2010 to 38% of the register at the end of June 2012.
2.5 Years of Broker Trading in terms of the Register Opaque Dealings Transparent 72.4 % 27.6 % Representing around 408.9 million buys & sells in the market
The lack of transparency is because most trades are executed in the market by brokers and then forwarded to other agents for settlement and mainly in favour of institutions. The links between client and broker are completely obscured in the process. Many of the trades also represent wash trades that dont even make it to the register. Institutional Entity OFF ON NET Citicorp Nominees 124,057,631 123,164,692 -892,939 National Nominees 99,615,532 99,639,309 23,777
4
d. Aberrant trading trends: Research has investigated whether registry anomalies (i.e.; large fluctuations between the volumes of buying & selling and the volumes of share flows that have occurred on the register) are a pointer to unorthodox and possibly manipulative trading behaviours. Trading over the 2.5 years reviewed has demonstrated consistently high levels of anomalism that has fluctuated between periods of Wash Trades and periods of Dark Trades about which virtually nothing is known.
In the table below, variances between registry share flows and ASX volumes have been compared to both ASX volumes and to registry volumes. Periods where Wash Trades and Dark Trades have dominated are shaded. It also needs to be kept in mind that variances for normal trading would be expected to be close to zero.
Dark Trades regarding CuDeco are running at levels that are multiples of the levels already creating concerns for the ASX and for the market regulator.
(The ratios in the table indicate the number of registry share flows that have corresponded to a trade of 100 shares on the ASX. Normally, a trade of 100 shares should correspond to registry flows of 100 shares).
e. Control over pricing movements: A relatively small group of affiliated brokers have been responsible for most of the falls in price that have occurred and they have used parcels of shares considerably smaller in size than the average sized parcel across all trading. Research data suggests that the mechanism for price falls is programmed into algorithms which seem to recognize gaps between BIDs and ASKs when they appear and then take prices lower with either a cross trade or with a trade that goes through at a lower ASK price. Strangely, the mechanism for control over price falls has resulted in only 5% of all downward movements in price occurring at the buyers BID price. Implicit in the control over prices is the ability for algorithms to somehow recognize the quotes of affiliated brokers and to ensure that a trading partner is able to receive each Down Tick. f. Dominant trading The institutional influence over trading is spread far and wide but it also manifests through particular brokers having more prominent roles, through groups of brokers having prominent roles and through retail brokers camouflaging large volumes of institutional orders amongst those of retail clients. Most of the control emerges through trading algorithms tuned to generate particular trading volumes and somehow designed to interact with the brokers who are all servicing institutional buying and selling instructions. In particular, the trading data associated with broker UBS Securities raises several concerns. With a market share of only 5.5% of all trading volumes, it has consistently been the largest net seller of shares in over 2.5 years of trading. UBS has also been responsible for a mammoth 27% of all settlement activity which demonstrates the wide ranging involvement it has with the trading of other brokers, and it has conducted the largest number of crossings (XT trades) and the largest number of transactions both by very wide margins. UBSs role in downward price movements is indicated for example by a market share of 24% of all Down Ticks that have occurred during the 1 st half of 2012..
Total Dark Trades: 116.9 mill sells, 119.5 mill buys Total Wash Trades: 87.1 mill sells, 89.1 mill buys
General: Trading data suggests that anomalous trends are the result of institutional fund managers colluding with their trading and spreading their influence across a wide network of brokers. Assisting them in their endeavours have been HFT algorithmic trading programs (in controlling price movements and auction results), manipulative short selling, illegal Wash Trades, Dark Pool share exchanges and a grossly non- transparent trading and settlement environment. In so doing they take on the apparance of a cartel that is monopolizing all aspects of trading and severely compromising the markets role in fair price discovery.
Pre JORC JORC Post JORC Comparison Jan to May 2010 Jun & Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct & Nov 2010 Dec 2010 to Dec 2011 Jan to Jun 2012 To Registry Volumes 29% 45% 119% 41% 45% 35% 51% To ASX Volumes 22% 81% 54% 70% 31% 48% 103% Ratio 100:78 100:181 100:46 100:170 100:69 100:154 100:203
Extremely anomalous 5
CHARTS SHOWING AN INCREASING INSTITUTIONAL PRESENCE ON THE REGISTER AND A DOMINANCE OVER TRADING
Top 20 - Institutions Top 20 - Other Holders Balance of Register Registry Breakdown 2006
1,2, & 3 Citicorp National HSBC Non Institutions ANZ JP Morgan DOMINANCE OVER TRADING BY CuDECOs INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERS
Combined Institutional Holdings as at Jan 1, 2010 20,445,838 shares (14.8% Ownership)
Combined Institutional Holdings as at Jun 30, 2012 71,698,305 shares (38.3% Ownership) Jan 2010 Jun 2012 Placements + 39.2 M Trading + 12.2 M Accumulation INCREASING LEVELS OF INSTITITIONAL OWNERSHIP OVER THE REGISTER
Institutions Citicorp National HSBC 1,2, & 3 JP Morgan 30 Months Trading 2012 - 6 Months Trading
Top 20 Institutions New Apex Asia Top 20 - Other Holders Balance of Register Registry Breakdown 2012 Total Registry Movements OFF ON 438,800,819 439,011,283
Total Registry Movements OFF ON 67,874,628 68,022,177
Section 1 ........... Pg. 7 AN OVERVIEW OF THE WORLDS FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Section 2 Pg.10 THE OWNERSHIP OF THE ASX, AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL MEDIA AND PUBLIC SHARE FORUMS
Section 3 ............. Pg. 16 THE INCREASING INSTITUTIONAL PRESENCE ON THE CUDECO SHARE REGISTER
Section 4 ........ Pg. 21 A SUMMARY OF 30 MONTHS OF BROKER ACTIVITY
Section 5 ........ Pg. 43 INSTITUTIONAL REGISTRY ACTIVITY FROM JANUARY 2010 to JUNE 2012
Appendices .... Pg. 60
Appendix 1: TOP 20 SHAREHOLDER LISTS FROM 2006 to 2011 Pg. 61 Appendix 2: BROKER TRADING SUMMARY: JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012 Pg. 63 Appendix 3: BROKER and REGISTRY SUMMARIES JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012 Pg. 65 Appendix 4: INSTITUTIONAL REGISTRY SUMMARIES: JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012 Pg. 67 Appendix 5: ASX PARTICIPANT CODES Pg. 69 Appendix 6: LEADING RETAIL BROKERS - MONTHLY TRADING STATISTICS Pg. 72
7
Section 1
BACKGROUND INFORMATION: An Overview of the Worlds Financial System
8
6.5.1.1 A PERSPECTIVE ON THE STRUCTURE OF WORLD FINANCE Observing how the world financial system is structured helps to put into perspective the trading taking place in the markets and in particular, the trading associated with CuDeco. After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 a science based organization that publishes the web ezine New Scientist Online conducted extensive research into the structure of world finances. Information about the organization may be summarized as: New Scientist magazine was launched in 1956 for all those men and women who are interested in scientific discovery, and in its industrial, commercial and social consequences. It explores and interprets the results of human endeavour set in the context of society and culture. New Scientist explains why a development is significant as well as putting social and cultural context around it, delivering more insight than any other current affairs or science source. The research was prompted by the precarious state of affairs in regard to global finances triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The collapse was related to an extreme over exposure to sub-prime mortgages by Lehman which had immediate ramifications across the worlds financial system. The research by the New Scientist organization demonstrated the strong relationships between the worlds most powerful economic entities through joint ownership of assets, strategic alliances and joint dealings across a range of financial products. Importantly it showed how problems can quickly manifest globally when a major financial catastrophe occurs because of the chain of connectedness between these powerful entities. The full article is available on the internet <link>, however the main findings are summarized below. 6.5.1.2 TITLE of ARTICLE: The Capitalist Network That Runs The World: An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy. The reality based study combined the mathematics long used to model natural systems with comprehensive corporate data to map ownership among the world's transnational corporations (TNCs). Previous studies have found that a few TNCs own large chunks of the world's economy, but they included only a limited number of companies and omitted indirect ownerships, so could not say how this affected the global economy - whether it made it more or less stable, for instance. The study was based on a database listing 37 million companies and investors worldwide, where 43,060 TNCs and the share ownerships linking them were assessed. A model was constructed to map the structure of economic power by establishing which companies controlled others through shareholding networks and where each company's operating revenues were directed to. A core of 1318 companies with interlocking ownerships each had ties to two or more other companies, and on average they were connected to 20. What's more, although they represented 20 per cent of global operating revenues, the 1318 appeared to collectively own through their shares the majority of the world's large blue chip and manufacturing firms - the "real" economy - representing a further 60 per cent of global revenues. Cross holdings associated with most of the 1318 companies tracked back to a "super-entity" of 147 even more tightly knit companies - all of their ownership was held by other members of the super- entity - that controlled 40 per cent of the total wealth in the network. "In effect, less than 1 per cent of the companies were able to control 40 per cent of the entire network" 9
The top 50 of the 147 super connected companies are summarized below. The highlighted entities have connections to the trading taking place with CuDeco according to the following: o They may be represented as a nominee entity sitting in an institutional account (green font) that is listed as a CDU shareholder, or; o They may be a broker affiliate of the leading world company that is heavily involved in the trading of Cudeco shares (red font). 1. Barclays plc
18. Goldman Sachs Group Inc
36. Standard Life plc 2. Capital Group Companies Inc
19. T Rowe Price Group Inc
37. CNCE 3. FMR Corporation
20. Legg Mason Inc
38. Nomura Holdings Inc 4. AXA
21. Morgan Stanley
39. The Depository Trust Company 5. State Street Corporation
22. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Grp
40. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance 6. JP Morgan Chase & Co
23. Northern Trust Corporation
41. ING Groep NV 7. Legal & General Group plc
24. Socit Gnrale
42. Brandes Investment Partners LP 8. Vanguard Group Inc
25. Bank of America Corporation
43. Unicredito Italiano SPA 9. UBS AG
26. Lloyds TSB Group plc
44. Deposit Insurance Corp of Japan 10. Merrill Lynch & Co Inc
27. Invesco plc
45. Vereniging Aegon 11. Wellington Management Co
28. Allianz SE 29. TIAA
46. BNP Paribas (refer Nominees) 12. Deutsche Bank AG
30. Old Mutual Public Limited Co
47. Affiliated Managers Group Inc 13. Franklin Resources Inc
31. Aviva plc
48. Resona Holdings Inc 14. Credit Suisse Group
32. Schroders plc
49. Capital Group International Inc 15. Walton Enterprises LLC
33. Dodge & Cox
50. China Petrochemical Group Company 16. Bank of New York Mellon Corp
34. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc*
17. Natixis
35. Sun Life Financial Inc
6.5.1.3 COMMENTS It is of interest that the Vanguard Group is rated as the No 8 world rated company and is also part of the M&G Group of Companies. M&G are a major CuDeco shareholder. The connectedness of institutional trading regarding CuDeco takes on a whole new look when viewed from the findings of the New Scientist Group. Vanguards large investment as part of the group that has captured a major stake in the company and that continues to seek increased exposure through placements and through on-market buying looks to be a particularly significant development. Serious questions are raised by the simultaneous occurrence of: The active involvement of companies that are leaders in terms of global economics in CuDeco trading; The involvement of brokers who also figure prominently in a global context in trading CuDeco shares; The anomalous trends evident in long term trading data for CuDeco; and The negative press coverage regarding Rocklands and CuDeco in contrast to the company reporting strong progress on all fronts as it fast tracks development.
CuDecos institutional shareholders in representing sophisticated investors help to explain the ready accessibility to Dark Pools to conveniently re-arrange portfolios whenever required and for whatever reason as well as the strong levels of co-ordination, co-operation and facilitation that appears to have taken place in support of each others trading agendas.
The situation resonates more closely with the corporate targeting of CuDeco rather than genuine buying and genuine selling between investors acting ethically, fairly and transparently at all times. 10
Section 2
FURTHER BACKGROUND INFORMATION The Ownership of the ASX, Australian Financial Media and Public Share Forums
11
6.5.2.1 THE ASX: Top 20 Shareholders 2012 The Top 20 shareholders of the ASX as at August 1, 2012 are listed in the table (as taken from the 2012 Annual Report). Attention has been drawn to the entities who have also been actively involved with trading CuDeco shares ( ) and to those who have been involved with Cudeco but in a minor way. ( ) In a sense the involvements are not surprising as CuDeco is listed as an ASX200 company and there is interconnectedness between major financial entities throughout the financial system.
6.5.2.2 CUDECO: Top 20 Shareholders For comparison purposes the Top 20 CuDeco shareholders as per the 2012 Annual are also listed.
JP Morgan trades as two distinct entities: J P Morgan Nominees and JP Morgan Nominees Leading trading entities 12
6.5.2.3.1 MEDIA OWNERSHIP IN AUSTRALIA Media ownership in Australia is distributed between commercial, national public broadcasters and not-for- profit community broadcasters. Australian media ownership has been described as one of the most concentrated in the world. For example, 11 of the 12 capital city daily papers are owned by either Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation (accounting for around 70% of daily newspaper circulations) or by John Fairfax Holdings. The duopoly over media control shows up in the leading newspapers by circulation which according to Wikipedia are as follows:
The leading newspapers owned by Fairfax are, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Australian Financial Review (AFR) and The Herald. News Limited control the rest led by The Herald Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Courier Mail, The Advertiser, The Australian and the Gold Coast Bulletin.
6.5.2.3.2 OWNERSHIP OF NEWS LIMITED Until the formation of the News Corporation Ltd. in 1979, News Limited was the principal holding company for the business interests of Rupert Murdoch and his family. Since then, News Limited has been wholly owned by News Corp. In 2004, News Corp Limited announced its intention to reincorporate to the United States. On 3 November News Corp Limited ceased trading on the Australian Stock Exchange; and on 8 November, News Corporation began trading on the New York Stock Exchange. TOP 20 HOLDERS Shares Cede & Co 530,801,809 Chess Depositary Nominees 265,787,594 Private Holders - 18 in number 1,329,825 Totals 797,919,228
Newspaper City State/Territory Circulation Owner Cede & Co. Nominee name for The Depository Trust Company, a large clearing house that holds shares in its name for banks, brokers and institutions in order to expedite the sale and transfer of stock.
The control exercised by Murdoch in areas associated with his financial interests including politics, national policy (e.g. the war in Iraq), climate change, the environment and commerce are well enunciated in an article by Robert Manne of the SMH, a Fairfax publication. The point is that all media has the ability to influence public opinion in all areas including the financial markets. As mentioned previously, CuDeco has generally received limited favourable press coverage which has been inconsistent with reported progress made by the company. 13
6.5.2.3.3 THE OWNERSHIP OF FAIRFAX: (Reference: the 2012 Annual Report) The Top 20 shareholders of Fairfax are listed below again with the entities who are prominent in trading Cudeco highlighted ( ) and those that have also been involved but to a lesser extent also highlighted ( ).
6.5.2.3.4 MEDIA COVERAGE of CuDECO It is fair to say that all daily newspapers with the exception of the Gold Coast Bulletin have been particularly harsh in their coverage of CuDeco preferring to focus on perceived management shortfalls and the disappointment surrounding the companys JORC compliant resource. There has been no critical analysis of the issues surrounding the unreliability of JORC estimates when it comes to resources exhibiting strong nugget effects, and no coverage of the importance of bulk mining trials in being able to more accurately estimate likely mining grades for such resources. Nor has there been any research done on why the company has ordered equipment for a processing plant designed to mine ore at grades markedly higher than JORC estimates or why its EIS submissions to the QLD Government and submissions to the Townsville port authority stipulate production levels greatly in excess of what could be achieved from JORC estimates given the volume of ore throughput planned. There has been no commentary about the company consistently being able to achieve premium placement deals when raising finance or the success of its share Buy Back programs that have been implemented to take advantage of an undervalued share price. Nor has there been any coverage of note concerning the many achievements made by the company in advancing its discovery at Rocklands towards what will be a significant new mining enterprise for QLD.
Newsworthy achievements that for the most part have been ignored by media include: The granting of a 30 year mining license by the QLD Government dispelling any notion of a marginal mining operation at Rocklands; Major investors being prepared to pay premiums to gain exposure to Rocklands; The plans for mining being based on mining trials not the JORC based 1.7% Cu equivalent grade, with grades in the first years expected to be considerably higher than JORC estimates; The fact that an open cut mine at Rocklands will have a low strip ratio with mineralization accessible from the surface and looks like being commissioned substantially debt free; The securing of rail and port infrastructure and the outright ownership of its mining fleet; New copper discoveries that will add to the high grade component of the resource; A separate rare earth, precious metals discovery at Wilgar likely to form a second mining operation to its flagship measured and indicated deposit known as Las Minerale; The recent go ahead by the QLD Government to develop its highly promising uranium prospects first brought to prominence by the high grade uranium found by CRA back in the 60s.
14
6.5.2.3.5 INSTITUTIONAL TRADING: The ownership structure of Fairfax, the ASX and indeed CuDeco show the similar levels of institutional control that encompass all major public companies including those who are members of the ASX200 index. However it is with the nominees listed in the institutional omnibus accounts where the true ownership is found. The unifying of holdings through institutional guardianship often with a mandate for institutional fund managers to use shares under management for income generation delivers enormous financial resources to institutions that can be used to great effect in the market. The extensive involvement of institutions in both short selling and stock lending is a case in point particularly when equivalent securities are used to satisfy loan obligations. In such instances, and the practice looks to be widespread, shorting can take place on-market with immediate price discovery resulting in lower prices, yet exposed position can be managed indefinitely off-market due to the extensive resources and wide ranging flexibility available to institutional fund managers. Individual institutions are powerful trading entities in their own right, but when they trade in unison as appears to be the case with CuDeco with constant exchanges of shares back and forth both on-market and off-market, and when they provide ready access to each others holdings via stock lending to facilitate short sales (albeit for a fee paid for by funds under management), collusion represents an extremely formidable force that is capable of completely monopolizing the market in a stock. There is also the question of why institutions even need to access each others holdings when they usually have shares in their own right that they can sell in the market and then re-purchase if they consider a stock over-valued. Furthermore the trading activities of institutions as revealed in the case of CuDeco are likely to be spread across the ASX with serious ramifications for the integrity of the entire system. Also of concern is that super funds which represent the wellspring of cash flowing into the system may be subsidizing the trading objectives of fund managers regardless of whether profits or losses materialize for clients. The trend over 2.5 years with CuDeco has been for churn based trading in a zero sum game environment, so that institutions are presumably taking turns at profiting from each other. It is an odd situation but it is supported by trading data. Institutional management fees of course are likely to be independent of any profits or losses generated. The trading data that follows draws attention to what may be motivating institutions with their trading. Possible motivations might include: Trading for genuine profits with profits delivered by retail investors and each other; Trading to earn commissions irrespective of the trades being profitable or not; Trading to bleed profits from each through stock lending & shorting, where costs are paid for by the funds being managed; Trading in pursuit of agendas such as the purposeful suppression of share prices. The lower prices resulting from share price suppression may enable sophisticated investors to acquire large volumes of shares through placements from the company that may not otherwise be available directly from the market. Whatever has prompted the unusual trading behaviours adopted by institutions, the one constant over a period of two and a half years, is the significant increase in institutional ownership over the company. Certainly a dysfunctional share price and public confusion surrounding Rocklands hasnt stopped sophisticated investors from increasing their stakes in the company both on and off-market.
It is also worth noting that substantial losses in portfolio values often accompany stock lending activity despite the fees earned through the lending of stock it suggests other motives in facilitating short selling.
15
6.5.2.4.1 PUBLIC FORUMS: Share discussions on public forums came into vogue with the advent of share trading through the internet in the mid to late 90s. While promoting the free exchange of information between members they have also proved hazardous because of the misinformation also spread by vested interests, and the difficulty in controlling the accuracy of what is volunteered.
TheBull.com.au, a media company run and owned by long-standing finance journalists with no ties to any financial services company or Association summed up the activities of public forums in an informative article titled:
THE MYSTERIOUS WORLD OF STOCK FORUMS Death threats, politics, allegations of insider trading...it's all happening on stock forums.
6.5.2.4.2 There are several share forums of somewhat obscure ownership including: HOT COPPER; TOP STOCKS; AUSSIE STOCK FORUMS, and; SHARESCENE.
The HotCopper website is operated by Report Card Pty Ltd (ACN 092 598 859) although according to an article by Age journalist Mark Hawthorne published in Jan 2009, ownership of Hot Copper was linked to broker Adam Rankine-Wilson (now deceased). Interestingly, Rankine-Wilson happened to be associated with Azure Capital the firm who has been assisting CuDeco with fund raising since early 2009. LINK: http://www.theage.com.au/business/canadian-rules-make-coal-a-cheap-export-asset-20090115- 7i0r.html?page=2
1. Invest by listening to stock tips on forums, newspapers and magazines is a sure way to financial ruins. Everything you read has to be taken with a pinch of salt. 2. Build up your investment analytical skills - in both fundamental and technical analysis FIRST. 3. Use forums intelligently. Ask questions. There is no such thing as stupid question. Only the stupid chooses to be stupid by NOT asking questions. 4. Some free things (like free tips) actually cost a lot in the end. You need to spend money to get educated first - through books or courses. As a member of a forum, you can play a part in increasing the level of accountability of stock forums by posing the following questions: - Does your investor forum accept script (shares in a company) in payment for stock promotion or advertising? - Do any of the owners of your forum run or work for a stock brokerage or financial advisory firm? - What is your policy on people registering more than one account and what technology and processes do you have in place to prevent this means of manipulating the share market? Excerpt 2: Re: Tips for subscribers to public forums ..the pitfalls with investor forums are that beginners frequently fall into the trap of blindly following stock tips, often to their financial demise, that moderation of content is sometimes compromised for the sake of maximising advertising dollars and that moderators abuse their role to further their own interests, such as censoring posts that do not concur with their own investment view. Excerpt 1 16
Section 3
THE INCREASING INSTITUTIONAL PRESENCE ON THE CUDECO SHARE REGISTER
17
6.5.3.1 INTRODUCTION There have generally been widely disparate views between public perceptions of the company following its initial discovery at Rocklands back in late 2005 early 2006 and the actions of sophisticated investors in the market. The stock has been surrounded by controversy and conjecture following intervention by the ASX in June 2006 in forcing a downgrade of the companys initial inferred resource (Refer Research Paper 3.4) which was magnified many times over because of further JORC based issues surrounding a resource upgrade in August 2010 (Refer Research Paper 3.6). Trading has seen the markets most influential brokers pay a lot of attention to the stock for over 6 years despite the public confusion, and in recent years sophisticated investors have secured substantial levels of increased ownership over the company. It is fair to say that while there may have been some assumptions in the companys June 2006 Inferred JORC statement that were subsequently proven incorrect by follow up exploration, (e.g.; assumptions about continuity of grades in extrapolating the resource along strike and at depth, and assumptions about specific gravity values assumed for the bulk of the resource). However the companys estimates regarding the amount of copper at Rocklands were remarkably accurate. Subsequent events have proven that the company was much closer to the mark with its knowledge about the resource than the ASXs advisers who were instrumental in forcing a resource downgrade, yet enormous damage was inflicted on the company and its shareholders by what now looks to be an embarrassing and unnecessary intervention. It would appear that sophisticated investors were not side tracked by the ASXs intervention back in 2006 and nor were they side tracked by the confusion surrounding a subsequent resource statement announced to the market in Aug 2010. Clearly the difficulty in being able to accurately estimate resources for unique ore bodies such as Rocklands that are subject to pronounced nugget effects led to investors being misinformed and confused. The result was a resource with grade estimates that are likely to be exceeded by actual mining as suggested by extensive bulk mining trials that have been undertaken. It is an ironic situation as the intention of the ASX JORC code is meant to more reliably inform investors about mineral resources yet it would appear that the exact opposite has occurred. The revelations provided by trading behaviours in the market and the increasing institutional ownership over the company possibly describe the merits of the Rockland resource far more reliably than a potentially flawed compulsory JORC code ever could. Trading data very much suggests that sophisticated investors have seized upon the resource confusion and a likely undervaluation of the Rocklands resource resulting from JORC compliance, and have used the situation to their advantage. The trading behaviours adopted by sophisticated investors have been largely responsible for: Destabilizing the market at critical times; Controlling price movements over a very long period of time; Elevating the confusion surrounding the stock particularly when the share price has been prevented from responding to good news in the way that is expected from significant market developments; Maintaining an undervalued share price possibly to facilitate opportunistic placements and by default, increased ownership over the company. Trading outcomes such as the above have had the effect of magnifying uncertainty and has led to retail investors being confused and in some cases panicked out of their holdings. 18
6.5.3.2 INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP OCTOBER 2012 The Top 20 shareholders listed below account for 69.1% of the company as at Oct 5, 2012. The figure compares to 41.6% for the corresponding 2009 Annual statement. Research has documented trading from the beginning of Jan 2010 coinciding with the ownerhip by sophisticated investors increasing by 27.5%. A listing of Top 20 shareholders from 2006 to 2011 is included as Appendix 1.
6.5.3.4 REGISTRY STATISTICS YEAR Top 20 Shares Held % of Register Institutions Only % of Register Total Issued Shares 2006 28,900,533 39.6% 4,679,509 6.4% 73,042,012 2007 37,077,353 39.0% 15,252,490 16.1% 94,975,161 2008 52,880,570 44.4% 24,333,182 20.4% 119,229,279 2009 57,533,441 41.6% 26,279,177 19.0% 138,195,237 2010 59,459,223 40.9% 29,875,448 20.5% 145,412,627 2011 89,808,306 56.2% 59,845,107 37.4% 159,858,145 2012 130,221,057 47.7% 74,774,381 39.7% 188,398,520
2012
An increase in institutional ownership from 6.4% in 2006 to 39.7% in 2012 says a lot about what is playing out in the market camouflaged by layers of confusion spread by brokers, financial media and public forums.
19
6.5.3.5.1 CHARTS The increasing levels of corporate control over the register is borne out by the following charts.
The situation is certainly counterintuitive to what could be expected from a company with a supposedly inferior low grade resource. The more reliably informed sectors of the market have positioned themselves while many retail investors have sold out. The company has certainly vindicated itself following difficulties in getting a complex resource to comply with JORC reporting requirements and at the same time having the JORC estimates match the likely realities of mining. Yet shareholders have been unfairly subjected to very considerable losses of wealth and loss of opportunity over a 6 year period through problems with being able to convey their in-house assessments to the market about a unique resource, which are likely to be much more accurate to those officially sanctioned by the ASX. 6.5.3.5.2
Top 20 - Institutions Top 20 - Other Holders Balance of Register Registry Breakdown 2006
Top 20 Institutions New Apex Asia Top 20 - Other Holders Balance of Register Registry Breakdown 2012
Increasing Institutional Ownership As a per cent of the Register
Increasing Institutional Ownership By Number of Shares 20
6.5.3.6 INSTITUTIONAL INVOLVEMENT FROM 2006 to 2012
The high volumes of churn based trading associated with institutions generally and with Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees in particular, provide the backdrop for major institutional accumulation off-market. The accumulation has principally been in the form of placements but there have also been some on-market acquisitions through substantial levels of buying by the M&G Group. The fact that the corporate presence in the market has been overwhelming, but with only one active participant accumulating shares, is extremely unusual and also suggests a unified/co-ordinated approach to trading. Sophisticated investors would all have access to the same information, yet there has been no attempt to either maximize profits or to add to stock levels in the face of obvious interest in the stock. The principal activity of institutions has been to churn their holdings back and forth between themselves. While the motivation and intent of institutions with their trading is fairly clear in supporting increased corporate ownership over the company, there is a more important question concerning their monopoly over the market. The question arises because increased corporate ownership over the company has come at the expense of all other investors, particularly retailers. The question is one of unfair management of the market while achieving their corporate agendas with their techniques used for managing the market giving rise to highly anomalous long term data trends. Or to put it succinctly, the concern relates to share price manipulation even if the tactics used are given the green light by market regulators.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Prolific Trading entities Citicorp & National Nominees Despite major confusion regarding the Rocklands resource in Aug 2010 it was the catalyst for major corporate involvement in the company through late 2010 and 2011 (Oct) The increased registry presence of institutions has coincided with anomalous data trends and dubious trading behaviours Shares Held 21
Section 4
A SUMMARY OF 30 MONTHS OF BROKER ACTIVITY IN RELATION TO CuDECO
22
6.5.4.1 BROKER TRADING SUMMARY: Period Jan 2010 through to June 2012 A summary of 30 months of trading is provided in the following table. Broker codes are available as Appendix 5. The Totals column under the Trading Details section is the sum of buying and selling transactions and provides a measure from which to compare broker activity. Net is an indication of net buying or net selling from all the trading and Margin refers to the difference between average selling prices and average buying prices. The % Market Share section enables broker performance to be monitiored whether it by volume of trades, number of transactions or the volume of settlements undertaken. SALES PURCHASES TRADING DETAILS % MARKET SHARE Broker Sell Sell Buy Buy Trades Totals Net Margin By Total Volume By Number of Trades BY Settlements Volumes Trades Volumes ABNA 19,680 123 22,748 137 42,428 3,068 $0.32 0.0% 0.0% - AGNT 19,800 16 0 0 19,800 -19,800 - 0.0% 0.0% - AIEX 24,796,565 16,213 21,738,508 15,563 46,535,073 -3,058,057 -$0.07 5.7% 3.2% 9.1% AUST 599,721 464 158,540 86 758,261 -441,181 0.881 0.1% 0.1% - BAIL 647,064 504 250,373 204 897,437 -396,691 -$0.15 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% BBY 13,682,619 15,477 28,222,106 26,366 41,904,725 14,539,487 -0.017 5.1% 4.2% 0.8% BELL 10,027,918 6,437 7,676,658 5,087 17,704,576 -2,351,260 $0.16 2.2% 1.2% 3.4% BRID 208,316 172 186,902 158 395,218 -21,414 0.018 0.0% 0.0% - BRLL 629,626 489 676,890 346 1,306,516 47,264 $0.17 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% BTIG 376,565 243 76,565 149 453,130 -300,000 -0.252 0.1% 0.0% - BYS 74,028 53 76,590 69 150,618 2,562 $0.40 0.0% 0.0% - CAM 421,750 210 356,655 194 778,405 -65,095 -0.358 0.1% 0.0% - CARM 170,419 181 189,169 159 359,588 18,750 -$0.67 0.0% 0.0% - CCZ 15,000 22 5,000 5 20,000 -10,000 1.529 0.0% 0.0% - CITI 29,539,055 44,139 29,578,486 45,978 59,117,541 39,431 $0.01 7.2% 9.1% 2.4% CLSA 362,993 920 157,931 224 520,924 -205,062 -0.403 0.1% 0.1% - CMCS 2,343,583 1,711 2,115,135 1,712 4,458,718 -228,448 -$0.01 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% COMM 76,624,662 48,152 75,215,000 48,164 151,839,662 -1,409,662 0.009 18.6% 9.8% 11.9% CSUI 10,246,191 24,229 10,861,565 26,113 21,107,756 615,374 $0.02 2.6% 5.1% 2.0% D2MX 3,785,228 1,614 4,010,207 1,222 7,795,435 224,979 -0.054 1.0% 0.3% - DAIW 273,004 415 347,032 433 620,036 74,028 $0.46 0.1% 0.1% - DMG 34,190,490 59,738 31,410,111 56,832 65,600,601 -2,780,379 -0.08 8.0% 11.8% 5.2% ETRD 26,758,640 16,823 23,951,632 16,564 50,710,272 -2,807,008 $0.04 6.2% 3.4% 5.9% EURO 82,314 95 122,613 80 204,927 40,299 0.194 0.0% 0.0% - EVAN 271,717 141 10,175 5 281,892 -261,542 $0.64 0.0% 0.0% - FOST 1,508,690 663 1,803,806 833 3,312,496 295,116 0.108 0.4% 0.2% - FTDT 6,028 28 14,453 41 20,481 8,425 $0.03 0.0% 0.0% - FWH 79,344 70 52,270 43 131,614 -27,074 -0.944 0.0% 0.0% - GETCO 215,151 1,297 215,230 1,260 430,381 79 $0.00 0.1% 0.3% - GS 12,143,860 13,911 12,393,121 15,059 24,536,981 249,261 -0.006 3.0% 2.9% - HART 3,171,051 1,376 2,016,787 1,411 5,187,838 -1,154,264 -$1.04 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% HUB24 8,154,262 2,968 8,085,633 2,830 16,239,895 -68,629 0.013 2.0% 0.6% 0.9% IABL 0 0 616 2 616 616 - 0.0% 0.0% - IMCP 1,498,323 5,245 1,460,734 4,218 2,959,057 -37,589 -0.009 0.4% 1.0% - INCA 161,028 154 63,117 76 224,145 -97,911 -$0.23 0.0% 0.0% - INST 5,405,076 8,880 5,221,925 9,350 10,627,001 -183,151 -0.485 1.3% 1.8% - INTS 270,191 142 891,653 133 1,161,844 621,462 $1.54 0.1% 0.0% - ITG 116,077 571 419,919 1,204 535,996 303,842 0.653 0.1% 0.2% - JDV 507,233 404 524,841 483 1,032,074 17,608 -$0.01 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% JPM 3,578,482 4,147 4,079,534 3,256 7,658,016 501,052 -0.261 0.9% 0.8% 2.4% KOKO 61,018 317 42,209 262 103,227 -18,809 -$0.51 0.0% 0.1% - LDAL 113,271 251 47,960 36 161,231 -65,311 -0.894 0.0% 0.0% - LODG 713,239 812 120,453 158 833,692 -592,786 -$0.75 0.1% 0.1% - MACP 6,468,903 4,276 5,523,062 3,839 11,991,965 -945,841 0.095 1.5% 0.8% 1.7% MACQ 15,655,957 34,330 15,284,159 31,915 30,940,116 -371,798 -$0.09 3.8% 6.7% 5.3% MERL 9,654,118 14,709 9,201,293 14,730 18,855,411 -452,825 -0.069 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 23
6.5.4.2.1 LEADING BROKERS: Broker data by itself doesnt convey what is occurring with trading because institutions spread their immense influence across a wide cross section of brokers The result is to smooth out their impact on the market but at the same time they are able to effectively dominate all trading activity. Sales Purchases Trading Details % Market Share Broker Sell Volume Trades Buy Volume Trades Totals Net Margin By Total Volume By Number of Trades BY Settlements COMM 76,624,662 48,152 75,215,000 48,164 151,839,662 -1,409,662 $0.01 18.6% 9.8% 11.9% DMG 34,190,490 59,738 31,410,111 56,832 65,600,601 -2,780,379 -$0.08 8.0% 11.8% 5.2% CITI 29,539,055 44,139 29,578,486 45,978 59,117,541 39,431 $0.01 7.2% 9.1% 2.4% ETRD 26,758,640 16,823 23,951,632 16,564 50,710,272 -2,807,008 $0.04 6.2% 3.4% 5.9% AIEX 24,796,565 16,213 21,738,508 15,563 46,535,073 -3,058,057 -$0.07 5.7% 3.2% 9.1% UBS 24,255,420 76,170 20,098,239 69,322 44,353,659 -4,157,181 $0.02 5.4% 14.8% 26.9% BBY 13,682,619 15,477 28,222,106 26,366 41,904,725 14,539,487 -$0.02 5.1% 4.2% 0.8% SOSL 16,814,844 12,223 16,903,003 11,818 33,717,847 88,159 -$0.03 4.1% 2.4% 1.0% MACQ 15,655,957 34,330 15,284,159 31,915 30,940,116 -371,798 -$0.09 3.8% 6.7% 5.3% MSDW 8,681,210 28,336 20,476,144 41,603 29,157,354 11,794,934 $0.07 3.6% 7.1% - GS 12,143,860 13,911 12,393,121 15,059 24,536,981 249,261 -$0.01 3.0% 2.9% - SBAR 12,519,913 8,739 12,195,335 6,825 24,715,248 -324,578 $0.21 3.0% 1.6% 0.02 CSUI 10,246,191 24,229 10,861,565 26,113 21,107,756 615,374 $0.02 2.6% 5.1% 2.0% MERL 9,654,118 14,709 9,201,293 14,730 18,855,411 -452,825 -$0.07 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% BELL 10,027,918 6,437 7,676,658 5,087 17,704,576 -2,351,260 $0.16 2.2% 1.2% 3.4%
24
The reality with trading is that the majority of buying and selling by all leading brokers is for institutions including a substantial portion of the activity within the retail brokers, COMM, ETRD and AIEX. Trading in CuDeco is dominated by broker Commonwealth Securities followed by Deutsche Bank and Citigroup Global Markets but registry data suggests that they are all servicing much the same institutional interests. 6.5.4.2.2 LEADING BROKERS BY NET BUYING & NET SELLING The long term trends regarding net buying and net selling by brokers are somewhat peculiar with just two brokers responsible for practically all of the net accumulation that occurred and a handful of brokers dominating the net selling. NET BUYING BROKER SELLS BUYS NET SELLS % MARKET SHARE BBY 13,682,619 28,222,106 14,539,487 5.1% MSDW 8,681,210 20,476,144 11,794,934 3.6% INTS 270,191 891,653 621,462 0.1% CSUI 10,246,191 10,861,565 615,374 2.6% JPM 3,578,482 4,079,534 501,052 0.9% STBG 489,938 860,915 370,977 0.2% ITG 116,077 419,919 303,842 0.1% FOST 1,508,690 1,803,806 295,116 0.4% GS 12,143,860 12,393,121 249,261 3.0% D2MX 3,785,228 4,010,207 224,979 1.0% SOSL 16,814,844 16,903,003 88,159 4.1% WBC 199,802 285,913 86,111 0.1%
The dominant net buying by BBY Ltd is largely attributable to the company itself with Buy Back programs to take advantage of an undervalued share price. The shares purchased through the Buy Back also had the effect of countering increasing levels of short selling that tended to increase in intensity as significant operational break throughs were achieved by the company. The trend is evident on the chart spanning 2.5 years where there was generally downward pressure on the share price in all periods other than when M&G were accumulating stock. The large volumes of selling by M&G is assumed to be institutionally based.
2010 SHORT SELLING (Monthly Short Sales as a percentage of Monthly Total Sales) Price Slump None of the buying and selling of these bokers can be linked to the register as all brokers use 3 rd party agents to settle their transactions. However it is assumed that most of their activity is servicing institutional orders as the numbers are needed to account for the large volumes of back and forth institutional transfers that have occurred.
6.5.4.2.3 THE CDU SHARE PRICE VERSUS MONTHLY SHORT SELLING
25
The companys Buy Back and Employee Share Purchase Scheme purchases accounted for around 14 million shares in total which happened to coincide with all of BBYs accumulation. It leaves a further almost 14 million BBY sales and close to 14 million purchases attributable to institutional dealings. The other significant accumulation was associated with buying by Morgan Stanley (MSDW). MSDW was responsible for the bulk of purchases by M&G leaving a further 8 million buys and sells churned back and forth through the market. The churned stock is also likely to represent institutional activity. Disclosures concerning the Buy Back purchases and the substantial holding of the M&G Group add a degree of transparency to the accumulation of shares by BBY and MSDW, however there is zero transparency concerning the additional activities of the two brokers which when combined exceeds 22 million sales and purchases conducted for unknown clients but assumed to be institutions. While the net buying is readily accounted for, it also suggests extremely unusual market dynamics. The vast majority of trading is represented by trading churn by institutional investors with shares generally retained and/or holdings added to. It is highly unlikely that just one sophisticated investor has recognized the merits of Rocklands and has set about gaining a major stake in the company with all other knowledgeable parties simply not interested. It doesnt make sense, especially when new discoveries with the potential to become major long life mining enterprises are a rarity. Also, major mining companies are all facing difficulties increasing their resource inventories and growing their businesses in regard to copper. Significantly, M&Gs decision to gain exposure to Rocklands was based primarily on Due Diligence on the information released on Aug 18, 2010 which contradicts the severe market reaction that occurred and adds deep suspicion about what really took place. Especially since the M&G buying took the price back up to a high of $4.72 on Dec 12, 2010 just as their on-market buying campaign came to a halt. 6.5.4.2.4 NET SELLING BROKER SELLS BUYS NET SELLS % MARKET SHARE UBS 24,255,420 20,098,239 -4,157,181 5.40% AIEX 24,796,565 21,738,508 -3,058,057 5.70% ETRD 26,758,640 23,951,632 -2,807,008 6.20% DMG 34,190,490 31,410,111 -2,780,379 8.00% PSL 8,407,362 5,999,627 -2,407,735 1.80% BELL 10,027,918 7,676,658 -2,351,260 2.20% RBSM 3,124,511 1,561,750 -1,562,761 0.60% COMM 76,624,662 75,215,000 -1,409,662 18.60% HART 3,171,051 2,016,787 -1,154,264 0.60% ORDS 3,002,309 1,970,038 -1,032,271 0.60% MACP 6,468,903 5,523,062 -945,841 0.80% LODG 713,239 120,453 -592,786 0.10%
The net selling is more evenly distributed than the net buying with UBS Securities leading the way by a wide margin followed by retail brokers in AIEX & ETRD and then Deutsche Bank (DMG). It is interesting to compare the net selling of brokers as per ASX data to the net registry movements associated with the same brokers which is usually retail based. The discrepancies shown highlighted in the following table point to where institutional trading by brokers has also occurred and which has been settled by other agents not the brokers themselves. The selling is a mixture of retail and corporate sales however the register shows that over 20 million shares have been removed from retail hands over the 2.5 year period. 26
The very large volumes of buying and selling generally represent the washing of shares back and forth between institutional holdings and that is particulalry evident with the most prominent broker Commonwealth Securities. Only 40% of its turnover appears to be related to retail client activity which suggests that large volumes of trades are likely to have been done for institutions. 6.5.4.3.1 LEADING BROKERS BY NUMBER OF TRADES: The leading broker by the number of transactions put through the market and by a very wide margin was UBS Securities. Given that very little is known about the effect of trading algorithms the prominence by UBS represents an excellent starting point to assess what impact algorithms have on the market and the fairness of trading to other participants - especially when trading programs are tuned to the programs used by affiliated brokers and especially if brokers are able to run multiple algorithms. Certainly the system is shrouded in unknowns other than that the programs are manipulative. It is why the major players need equal access to the ASX computers, irrespective of the unfairness imposed on all other particpants who dont have privileged access. (Refer Alan Kohler article)
Very small orders are the preserve of sophisticated investors who can afford the upfront licensing fees to sanction their use. However the ability to place small orders not only helps in forcing retail investors to pay LODG has no registry presence as its trades are settled by agents Variances between what has occurred on the register and the net trading of brokers is a pointer to the extent of trading done for non retail clients that is settled elsewhere 27
more or receive less in order to gain an order fill but it can facilitate control over pricing levels with very substantial price fluctuations achieved for little overall cost. Adding to the success of algorithms trading back and forth with each other by brokers who are in control of the market, has been a dumb downed market with no significant buying interest from outsiders. That has certainly been the case with CuDeco. Misinformation has enveloped the company because of JORC related issues stemming from the ASXs intervention back in June 2006 and again in 2010 with a resource statement that was surrounded by confusion and disappointment.
6.5.4.4.1 ORDER SIZES USED BY THE PROMINENT BROKERS A summary of the average order size used by the leading brokers for buying and selling is provided in the following tables. The first table rates prominent brokers by the size of their selling orders, and the second lists them by the size of their buying orders. In general, the brokers with the smallest order sizes are associated almost exclusively with trading on behalf of institution. It focusses even greater attention on what trading algorithms are achieving in swapping shares back and forth between sophisticated interests that are likely to be informally affiliated and pursuing common trading objectives. Broker Sells Trades Avg. Sell Buys Trades Avg. Buy Broker Sells Trades Avg. Sell Buys Trades Avg. Buy MSDW 8,681,210 28,336 306 20,476,144 41,603 492
6.5.4.5.1 CROSS TRADES Cross trades have been a significant feature of trading where the trend appears to have been not for parcels of shares to be legitimately crossed up by brokers having both the selling client and the buying client, but rather, trading algorithms have issued them automatically as per inbuilt programming instructions. As such the trades appear to be more strategic and possibly manipulative rather than shares being genuinely exchanged. Crossings equate to 12.2% of all shares traded over the 2.5 year period, so represent a significant feature of trading. A summary of the various types of cross trades that have occurred reveals that the main crossing types utilized have been XT (a standard form of crossing) and SXXT (portfolio crossings). Type Volume Share %
Type Number Share % XT 33,132,469 66.4%
XT 44,507 85.7% SXXT 14,303,894 28.7%
SXXT 2,286 4.4% CPXT 763,170 1.5%
CPXT 2,068 4.0% NXXT 508,597 1.0%
NXXT 1,065 2.1% LTXT 254,220 0.5%
LTXT 9 0.0% ETXT 253,165 0.5%
ETXT 108 0.2% CX 214,429 0.4%
CX 1,715 3.3% L1XT 195,000 0.4%
L1XT 1 0.0% L3XT 122,099 0.2%
L3XT 5 0.0% L4XT 99,222 0.2%
L4XT 2 0.0% L5XT 45,143 0.1%
L5XT 14 0.0% CXXT 14,293 0.0%
CXXT 54 0.1% NX 3,562 0.0%
NX 69 0.1% IBXT 1,400 0.0%
IBXT 5 0.0% Total 49,910,663
Total 51,908
Broker involvements with XT crossings are set out in the table with brokers COMM, DMG and UBS clear leaders in terms of volume. However UBS appears to have swamped trading with immense numbers of cross trades which look to be designed to influence trading to the advantage of its clients rather than representing genuine exchanges of shares. Whatever purposes are being served for UBS clients the result has been to dumb down trading with small orders making it very difficult for retail investors to compete. 6.5.4.5.2 XT Trades Broker Volume Share % Number Share % Average COMM 16,881,606 51.0% 5,786 13.0% 2,918 DMG 3,260,162 9.8% 8,348 18.8% 391 UBS 2,446,253 7.4% 14,852 33.4% 165 ETRD 1,992,885 6.0% 653 1.5% 3,052 CITI 1,493,826 4.5% 4,419 9.9% 338 AIEX 1,424,941 4.3% 447 1.0% 3,188 MACQ 920,668 2.8% 3,864 8.7% 238 SBAR 772,725 2.3% 78 0.2% 9,907 BBY 764,896 2.3% 564 1.3% 1,356 SOSL 719,476 2.2% 429 1.0% 1,677 MSDW 571,151 1.7% 2,716 6.1% 210 HUB24 314,928 1.0% 39 0.1% 8,075
The situation is similar for DMG with an average crossing trade of 391 shares compared to 572 for all their sells and 553 for all their buys. The average crossing size by UBS of 165 shares compares to their average transaction size across all trading of 318 shares for sales and 290 for purchases. The statistic questions the genuiness of crossings particulalry when very small parcels are crossed resulting in a change in price . 29
6.5.4.5.3 PORTFOLIO CROSSINGS (SXXT) Given the suspicions regarding trading as highlighted by the anomalous data uncovered by research, the nature of portfolio crossings requires scrutiny. In particular, do the transactions represent bona fide exchanges of shares between genuine buyers and genuine sellers or are they just another mechanism for getting shares back into their rightful ownership after sales to trading partners on the ASX? The reason(s) behind the sales in the first place is what provokes suspicion as institutions have been actively increasing their holdings, not disposing of them. Brokers have facilitated the following portfolio crossings. Broker Volume % Share Count CITI 2,955,,521 21% 397 GS 2,627,359 18% 373 DMG 2,350,122 16% 430 GSP 1,743,343 12% 298 MACQ 1,411,054 10% 225 CSUI 1,020,482 7% 186 JPM 741,649 5% 149 MERL 540,481 4% 101 MSDW 461,621 3% 77 UBSW 344,691 2% 32 CLSA1 49,037 0% 2 RBS 46,805 0% 11 COMM 11,729 0% 5 Totals 14,303,894
2,286
6.5.4.6.1 DOWN TICK TRENDS Research into Down Ticks has uncovered some interesting anomalies regarding downward price movements. The majority of price changes over 2.5 years of trading appear to have been managed by a select band of brokers trading relatively small parcels shares back and forth between themselves as well as in their own right via cross trades. Attention has already been drawn to the fact that where a fall in price has occurred, Down Ticks have occurred at the sellers asking price or have been achieved by a cross trade around 95% of the time. It is a perplexing phenomenon but it is confirmed by long term data. Logically it would be expected that over long periods of time falls in price would occur at the buyers Bid price 50% of the time (more or less), and at the sellers ASK price the remaining 50% of the time. A bias of 95% favouring the sellers ASK and broker cross trades is extraordinarily anomalous and means that only 5% of downward price movements have resulted in the buyers BID price being hit. What appears to have taken place to cause such anomalism is that Down Ticks are programmed to occur whenever there is a gap between the BID and the ASK quotes and where trades have been occurring at the sellers price. A seller reducing their ASK slightly but still positioned above the BID is then immediately accepted by a buyer willing to pay over the BID. The transaction results in a trade at the new ASK price but the trade represents a fall in price. Alternatively, a cross trade may occur at a reduced price from where the stock was last trading but with the price chosen still above the quoted BID price. The process looks to be managed by broker affiliates using algorithms that automatically execute when a trading gap occurs. 30
Broker cross trades may be one of a number of varieties such as XT trades where the broker assigns the price, portfolio crossings where the broker assigns the price, CPXT trades, where the mid-point of a trading GAP is used for the transaction price and so on. All can result in either higher or lower prices than the previous pricing level but in the case of Down Ticks lower prices have been purposefully chosen by brokers or at least by their trading algorithms. In previous research the trend was for high levels of Down Ticks at the ASK price which when combined with broker crossings meant that 95% of price falls were broker directed so that the transaction price was above the highest BID quote in the system. A recent trend through 2012 has seen substantially more cross trades and less trades at the asking price but when combined the result still equated to around 96%. It means that most transactions (i.e.; all but 4%) have occurred at pricing levels above the buyers BID price. The highly unusual situation appears to have resulted from brokers colluding with each other, albeit through the design of the trading algorithms that they run. In general, trading data suggests that the seller reducing the ASK price and the buyer who accepts the new ASK price are generally working together. In addition only small parcels of shares have been used to force most changes in price. The trends regarding unusual price formation for the 1 st 6months of 2012 are detailed in the next section.
6.5.4.6.2 DOWN TICK DATA - 2012: January to June In trading over the first 6 months of 2012, the number of Down Ticks in price totalled 7,614. However, of all the falls in price that have taken place, only 4% have occurred at the buyers BID price it is an astonishing outcome! It means that reductions in price have been characterized by reduced asking prices as explained above or through broker crossings. It suggests tight control over price movements by those responsible for the Down Ticks (DTs). The data is summarized below. DTs @ the ASK 6,138 81% Broker Crossings 1,141 15% DTs @ the BID 335 4% Totals 7614 100% To assess what is taking place in the market it is of interest to identify the brokers who have been responsible for the majority of Down Ticks, both as sellers that have led to price falls, and as buyers who have facilitated the trades.
SELLERS RESPONSIBLE FOR DOWN TICKS BUYERS IN SUPPORT OF DOWN TICKS Importantly, all brokers with the exception of Commonwealth Securities (COMM) primarily represent institutions, and even then a large part of COMMs trading has traditionally been associated with non-retail clients. Institutions are therefore seen to have had an enormous impact on controlling pricing levels with the trading of shares back and forth between themselves generally, and with a monopoly over Down Ticks. These brokers represent 87% of all sellers of Down Ticks These brokers represent 89% of all buyers of Down Ticks 31
The influence by brokers in terms of price management of the CDU share price is better undertood when an analysis is made of the parcel sizes of trades resulting in changed pricing levels. In all trading over the 6 month period Jan to Jun 2012, the average parcel size of 77,994 separate transactions was 433 shares. It compares to a parcel size of 448 for the 7,614 transactions that resulted in a fall in price. However 70% of the Down Tick transactions had parcel sizes under 250 shares. The involvement of brokers in forcing Down Ticks through transactions involving small numbers of shares is as follows PARCELS of 1 to 10 SHARES IN SIZE: There were 1,582 Down Tick transactions involving parcels of between 1 and 10 shares in size. Remarkably, such transactions represent a very considerable 20.8 % of all Down Ticks in price over the 6 month period. In the table, the column % Share refers to the number of DTs by each broker compared to all DT transactions below 11 shares in size.
PARCELS of 11 to 100 SHARES IN SIZE: There were 2,596 Down Tick trades involving share parcels of between 11 and 100 in size which represents a further 34.1% of all trades over a six month period that resulted in a fall in price.
The leading 4 account for 16.1% of all DTs over the entire 6 month period. The leading 4 account for 10.4% of all DTs over the entire 6 month period.
SELLERS of Down Ticks BUYERS of Down Ticks The leading 4 account for 19.3% of all DTs The leading 4 account for 17.5% of all DTs SELLERS of Down Ticks BUYERS of Down Ticks Broker Number % Share
The leading 4 account for 8.0% of all DTs The leading 4 account for 9.5% of all DTs SELLERS of Down Ticks BUYERS of Down Ticks 32
There were 1,188 Down Tick trades involving parcels of between 101 and 250 shares in size which represent a further 15.6% of all trades that resulted in a fall in price. 6.5.4.6.3 SUMMARY OF DOWN TICK (DT) TRADES It is particularly telling that Down Tick transactions have occurred with parcel sizes much smaller than the average parcel size of all shares traded, and that reductions in price have stemmed from a certain group of brokers providing most of the selling and buying.
PARCEL SIZE TRANSACTIONS % OF ALL DTs CUMULATIVE 10 and under 1,582 21% 21% 11 to 100 2,596 34% 55% 101 to 250 1,188 16% 70% Above 250 2,248 30% 100% Totals 7,614 100%
The activity of the leading brokers regarding Down Ticks is summarized further by including the number of crossings that have been undertaken in forcing Down Ticks in price. 6.5.4.7.1 LEADING BROKERS: The 4 largest selling brokers asociated with Down Tick trades were UBS, MACQ, CITI and DMG. The tables below show who the major buyers were in the selling transactions conducted by these brokers. Broker cross trades have been highlighted by shading. UBS DT Sells - 1,824
MACQ DT Sells - 1013
CITI DT Sells - 560
DMG DT Sells - 562 Broker Count % of UBS Sells Broker Count % of UBS Sells Broker Count % of CITI Sells Broker Count % of DMG Sells UBSW 475 26.0%
MACQ 250 24.7%
CITI 102 18.2%
DMG 154 27.9% CITI 248 13.6%
CITI 171 16.9%
UBSW 72 12.9%
CITI 76 13.8% BBY 198 10.9%
UBSW 94 9.3%
CSUI 55 9.8%
UBSW 54 9.8% CSUI 159 8.7%
CSUI 84 8.3%
MACQ 48 8.6%
CSUI 45 8.2% MSDW 108 5.9%
DMG 72 7.1%
MSDW 45 8.0%
COMM 34 6.2% COMM 82 4.5%
BBY 69 6.8%
COMM 43 7.7%
BBY 33 6.0% MACQ 80 4.4%
MSDW 43 4.2%
BBY 40 7.1%
MSDW 33 6.0% GS 70 3.8%
COMM 42 4.1%
DMG 37 6.6%
MACQ 28 5.1% INST 68 3.7%
GS 41 4.0%
GS 24 4.3%
GS 22 4.0% DMG 66 3.6%
AIEX 35 3.5%
AIEX 22 3.9%
SUSQ 15 2.7% SOSL 59 3.2%
SOSL 29 2.9%
SOSL 21 3.8%
AIEX 11 2.0% ETRD 53 2.9%
INST 27 2.7%
MERL 14 2.5%
MERL 9 1.6% GETCO 48 2.6%
BELL 11 1.1%
INST 12 2.1%
INST 8 1.4% AIEX 30 1.6%
ETRD 11 1.1%
TPPM 6 1.1%
GETCO 7 1.3% ITG 25 1.4%
TPPM 11 1.1%
PERSH 5 0.9%
BELL 5 0.9% In each case the dominant buyer of DT trades was the broker themselves through the use of cross trades. Such transactions involving small parcels of shares and where the broker is both seller and buyer in leading to a reduction in price represents extremely suspicious trading behaviour. The situation compounds an already unacceptable situation of brokers working collusively, through the use of trading algorithms, to control pricing outcomes between themselves. The following table draws attention to broker crossings involving parcels of shares under 100 in size.
Excessive use of broker crossings involving small numbers of shares and at levels not commensurate with their overall market activity also presents as highly suspicious trading behaviour.
Half of all DTs were achieved with trades of under 100 shares and 70% occurred with parcels under 250 shares 33
In 6 months trading there were around 77,994 transactions of which approx. 7,614 were trades that led to lower prices. Yet 70% of such trades have influenced prices downward with little effort in terms of shares traded with parcels mostly well under 250 shares in size. Such levels of control by a select few and with one broker clearly dominating price setting does little to justify official claims of fair trading. Particularly as changes in price are key events in share trading and set the bench mark for subsequent trading activity so that overt control over pricing outcomes can seriously distort price discovery. What the research data does is to put on display the results of algorithms continuously punching out seemingly innocuous trades in dribs and drabs but where every now and then an opportunity presents to conveniently take the share price lower at little cost to a clients holding. Contrived trades between brokers or manipulative crossings by brokers at crucial times that result in lower prices may be revealing a sinister level of control over the market that takes place daily yet is virtually impossible to monitor on a daily basis. Only analysis of long term data and the auditing of brokers accounts along with their clients has any chance of discovering what exactly is taking place. 6.5.4.8.1 COMMENT: Irregularities in CuDeco trading provide an opportunity to investigate a number of concerning issues and to assess their impact on the wider market. The issues include: The impact of the privileged use of trading algorithms about which next to nothing was known when their licensing was approved; The use of HFT trading in terms of monopolizing the trading in a particular stock which is an aspect of trading completely overlooked by the current debate ; The excessive use and bland acceptance of Wash Trades; The excessive use of Dark Pools for exchanges of shares, the reasons for which are obscure; Manipulative abuses of the system of short selling including irregular reporting and the management of exposed positions off-market ; The inadequacies of a system that facilitates collusion, unfair dealings and cartel like levels of control over the market by sophisticated investors, and; The shortfalls of a system that promotes itself as transparent when the reality is that the majority of dealings are opaque and extremely difficult to reconcile. CuDeco research at least provides a level of transparency about the trading taking place where the extent of problems is clearly evident. It is apparent that the system has been interminably compromised by the introduction of trading innovations brought about through new technology, imaginative trading schemes and exotic new financial products - but without any comprehension of what negative impacts might accompany them and what measures might be needed to guarantee the integrity of the market. NOTE: While the focus has been on Down Ticks as price suppression has been a common theme with the trading of CuDeco, the same levels of control appear to exist on the upside as well. With upward movements in price, there looks to be a strong bias toward broker crossings and trades that favour the BID price in causing increases in price (i.e.; Up Ticks). The same group of brokers tend to dominate upward movements as well as downward movements with the real issue being, who are they acting for and what are their clients attempting to achieve? Again Up Tick trends with transactions occurring at the asking price only taking place 5% of the time are far removed from what would be expected in a normal/fair market. 34
6.5.4.9.1 BROKER AFFILIATIONS Recent developments shed some important insights into broker relationships and the likelihood that brokers assist each other with their trading objectives. On Sept 12 this year various financial media outlets reported a decision by Citigroup (CITI) to sell its share of broker Morgan Stanley Smith Barney (SBAR) to Morgan Stanley (MSDW). The reporting confirms the association between CITI, MSDW and SBAR with CITI and MSDW having joint ownership of SBAR. The inference is that their institutional trading regarding CuDeco is likely to be strongly aligned because of the interconnections between all 3. Extracts of the media reports are as follows: Morgan Stanley, Citigroup settle brokerage dispute Sept 11, 2012 Ratings agency Fitch considers Morgan Stanley's purchase of an additional 14% of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney (MSSB) from Citigroup Inc. (Citi) to be a positive development for Morgan Stanley and a more modest net positive for Citi. The move raises Morgan Stanley's ownership of the joint venture to 65%. Also Morgan Stanley to Take Over Smith Barney, With Citigroups Blessing Sept 13, 2012 - The joint venture, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, was born in 2009, forged from Citigroups Smith Barney unit and Morgan Stanleys counterpart, as a way to benefit both companies. For Citigroup, which had long identified the brokerage as a nonessential asset to be sold off to free up capital, the deal will speed up its own rehabilitation plan. The two companies outlined steps that would allow Morgan Stanley to buy the 49 percent of the business that it did not already own within three years. That will begin with the purchase of a 14 percent stake that will close by the end of September. Morgan Stanley will buy an additional 15 percent by next June. The media announcements reveal that even before the deal that has been struck CITI controlled 49% of SBAR and MSDW owned 51% demonstrating the ownership connections between the three brokers. Given that CITI and MSDW do not show retail activity on the register and can be assumed to service institutional interests, and given that a good portion of SBARs activity is also institutionally based, it would be reasonable to look at a situation where the 3 brokers could be effectively regarded as one trading group. Such a scenario would provide an extremely powerful presence in the trading of CuDeco shares on behalf of institutions and would help to explain in part the co-operation with trading that is evident in the data with large volumes readily swapped back and forth with minimal changes to effective ownership. It also follows that brokers dont have to be formally affiliated to take part in collusive trading strategies and could be doing so simply by complying with the instructions that are issued to them by institutional fund managers even without the knowledge that other brokers are engaged similarly and by the same interests.
35
6.5.4.10.1 INSTITUTIONAL TRADING THROUGH RETAIL BROKERS Brokers such as COMM, ETRD and AIEX have large numbers of retail clients, but also facilitate large volumes of buying and selling for corporate and/or institutional interests. The result is that the activity of corporate entities is camouflaged amongst retail investors and is further hidden from view when the corporate transactions are forwarded to ASTC participants for processing. On the other hand, retail transactions put through the market by these brokers are processed by the broker themselves. Also, a lot of the transactions are likely to be Wash Trades as they dont appear to make it to the register, further disguising whatever trading agendas are being served by the anonymous buying and selling taking place within the retail brokers. The extent of corporate involvement amongst the leading retail brokers has been quantified for all trading between January 2010 and June 2012 and is summarized in Appendix 6. The results are quite revealing even though monthly reconciliations of broker activity with registry activity involve slight distortions to data. That is because of T+3 settlements where a month of registry activity doesnt exactly coincide with a month of ASX data. Nevertheless longer term comparisons convey a clear picture of what is occurring as summarized in the following half yearly tables. Over an extended time frame, T+3 influences at the beginning and end of the periods covered become insignificant because of the large volumes of data involved. Institutional buying and selling is clearly a dominant feature of retail broker activity and accounts for in excess of 50% of their activity during critical trading periods. The surplus calculation in the tables below provide an indication of the extent of non-retail activity by comparing totals for surplus Buying & Selling Estimates to totals for all ASX Buying & Selling. 6.5.4.10.2.1 RETAIL BROKER HALF YEARLY SUMMARIES FOR 2010: ASX Activity versus Client Registry Movements ASX ACTIVITY REGISTER ACTIVITY SURPLUS TRADES SURPLUS PERIOD BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS % Jan to June 2010 COMM 11,004,404 12,351,017 5,061,382 6,699,516 5,943,022 5,651,501 49.6% ETRD 4,167,986 4,389,017 2,511,336 2,705,179 1,656,650 1,683,838 39.0% AIEX 3,680,528 3,968,571 3,050,339 2,201,502 630,189 1,767,069 31.3%
Surplus Transactions 8,229,861 9,102,408
PERIOD BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS SURPLUS % July to Dec 2010 COMM 50,798,505 50,316,028 15,921,128 15,118,944 34,877,377 35,197,084 69.3% ETRD 16,007,060 15,541,064 6,665,039 6,427,064 9,342,021 9,114,000 58.5% AIEX 15,354,983 13,273,040 7,536,381 6,353,941 7,818,602 6,919,099 51.5%
Surplus Transactions 52,038,000 51,230,183
The outstanding feature of trading by retail brokers from July to Dec 2010 was the 50+ million trades additional to the retail orders that show on the register. The volatile period included the August resource upgrade, the turbulent months that followed and culminated in M&G accumulating shares in Nov and Dec 2010.
Overall trading from July to Dec 2010 was also associated with 73+ million Wash Trades that have been completely invisible to the market, many of which are likely to have originated within the ranks of retail brokers. The trades are invisible because of the obfuscation that occurs with settlements and the fact that many of the trades have been netted out and havent made it to the register. The trades did however manage to influence prices and market sentiment.
The volumes involved and the invisibility of the trades is likely to represent an enormous manipulative presence in the market that can only properly be evaluated via official audits of broker and client accounts 36
ASX ACTIVITY REGISTER ACTIVITY SURPLUS TRADES SURPLUS PERIOD BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS % Jan to Jun 2011 COMM 6,227,654 7,200,986 3,616,136 4,305,501 2,611,518 2,895,485 41.0% ETRD 3,292,782 2,146,721 2,625,757 1,743,542 667,025 403,179 19.7% AIEX 2,409,801 2,540,977 1,643,027 2,142,950 766,774 398,027 23.5%
Surplus Transactions 4,045,317 3,696,691
PERIOD BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS SURPLUS % July to Dec 2011 COMM 5,040,078 3,321,863 3,965,539 2,232,347 1,083,554 1,087,856 26.0% ETRD 2,181,079 1,115,957 1,703,408 917,285 478,439 326,304 24.4% AIEX 2,131,931 1,171,467 1,518,353 701,526 614,074 469,941 32.8%
Surplus Transactions 2,176,067 1,884,101
PERIOD BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS SURPLUS % Jan to Jun 2012 COMM 3,554,021 2,025,106 2,414,351 1,361,129 1,139,670 663,977 32.33% ETRD 1,109,733 758,873 1,045,998 629,013 63,735 129,860 10.30% AIEX 1,219,322 784,453 1,155,156 755,781 64,166 28,672 4.63%
Surplus Transactions 1,267,571 822,509
The data suggests that the retail brokers are likely to have played a pivotal role in conducting large volumes of trades anonymously for institutions and/or sophisticated investors during critical trading periods. It also indicates that any institutional presence amongst retail brokers diminished immediately after M&G acquired a significant stake at the end of 2010. The reduction in activity is particularly noticeable amongst Commonwealth Securities who has been the most prominent broker in CDU trading. The levels of surplus COMM trades were consistently above 45% in the months leading up to the Aug 18 resource announcement, then leapt to 80% during August. They continued at high levels (around 60%) in the months Sept, Oct, Nov 2010 and then dropped back markedly once M&G had completed its on-market buying campaign in early Dec 2010.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2010 2011 M&G Buying completed Pre Aug 18 Level of Non-Retail Trades by Commonwealth Securities Surplus Trades Highly anomalous 37
6.5.4.10.3.1 NOVEMBER and AUGUST 2010 COMPARISONS The trading data for the 3 leading retail brokers for November and August 2010 is summarized below. NOV 2010 ASX ACTIVITY REGISTER ACTIVITY SURPLUS TRADES SURPLUS BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS % Leading Retail Brokers COMM 9,262,322 8,721,779 3,572,703 3,082,741 5,689,619 5,639,038 63.0% ETRD 3,863,538 3,191,153 1,599,557 971,233 2,263,981 2,219,920 63.6% AIEX 2,905,025 2,481,544 1,712,457 940,863 1,192,568 1,540,681 50.7%
Surplus Transactions 9,146,168 9,399,639
AUG 2010 ASX ACTIVITY REGISTER ACTIVITY SURPLUS TRADES SURPLUS BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS % Leading Retail Brokers COMM 26,084,613 27,680,628 5,259,096 5,454,178 20,825,517 22,226,450 80.10% ETRD 6,709,009 7,276,407 1,935,527 2,006,295 4,773,482 5,270,112 71.80% AIEX 5,996,952 5,537,259 2,404,036 1,814,563 3,592,916 3,722,696 63.40%
Surplus Transactions 29,191,915 31,219,258
The trades associated with the 3 leading retail brokers in August account for approximately 60% of the 50 million wash trades identified for the month. Together with the 9 million surplus trades in Nov 2010 (representing 56% of missing trades for Nov which was around 16 mill buys & sells) the activities of the 3 leading retail brokers would have provided an enormous foil for trading to be unfairly influenced from within the ranks of leading retail brokers. The situation should perhaps ring alarm bells for regulators and to make matters worse, the influence of institutional trading extends much further than the 3 leading retail brokers.
6.5.4.10.4.1 TRADING BY COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES Jan to Dec 2010 excluding August The chart compares monthly ASX buying and selling to monthly retail settlements during 2010 with data for August omitted. The differences in heights (between red & black and blue & grey), represent surplus trades which in turn may represent trades done on behalf of institutions or wash trades by anonymous entities. The extent of surplus trades on behalf of institutions and/or sophisticated investors is clearly evident.
The surplus trades during August amongst the 3 leading retail brokers approximate the trading by all brokers during 2012 up until Jun 30 which totalled 33.7 million Sells and 33.7 million Buys. Surplus trades by 3 retail brokers during a month that coincided with a significant accumulation campaign by M&G. It was one of the rare on-market buying campaigns since the discovery was first made 5 years earlier.
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec All COMM Selling All COMM Buying Retail Client OFF Movements Retail Client ON Movements ASX Activity Registry Activity COMM SUMMARY 2010 Excluding August Level of Surplus Trades Trading Volumes 2010 Sells Buys 38
6.5.4.10.4.2 BROKER COMM TRADING FOR 2010 - including August The impact of manipulative wash trades on trading was also a prominent feature of trading on Aug 18 (Refer Research Paper 4.1 Sect 4.8.1 & Sect 4.8.4) and the days and weeks that followed with Commonwealth Securities likely to be responsible for a large majority of them. The impact of wash trades on trading during August is dramatically highlighted when August data is also included with all other months during 2010.
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec COMM TRADING SUMMARY 2010 Including August All COMM Selling All COMM Buying Retail Client OFF Movements Retail client ON Movements ASX Activity Registry Activity Trading Volumes, and Retail OFF movements Extraordinarily anomalous trading activity by COMM deserving of an enquiry in its own right 2010 Month by Month Surplus Sell Trades Retail ON movements Surplus BuyTrades 2010 Registry Volumes The trading in Aug 2010 for the most part didnt represent shareholders selling in disappointment although that did occur with the selling based more on confusion than anything else and with a lot of the selling forced because of margin limits being triggered. There was confusion about how large quantities of copper didnt seem to make it into resource calculations and confusion brought about by an orchestrated selling campaign where large volumes of wash trades took prices dramatically lower and created adverse market sentiment.
Retail selling was a minor part of the trading activity that occurred within Commonwealth Securities during August with retail registry movements representing just under 20% of the amount of ASX buying and selling transacted by COMM. Also, retail interests within COMM were marginal net buyers, not net sellers during August, as were the major institutions. The almost 80% of non-retail transactions occurring within Commonwealth Securities in August, is likely to represent the tip of a very large iceberg of nefarious dealings and suspect trading behaviours accompanying the resource upgrade announcement.
39
6.5.4.10.5.1 FURTHER TRADING SNAPSHOTS The remarkable feature about COMM trading is that following the Aug 2010 JORC announcement and the November 2010 accumulation of shares by M&G, volumes transacted by COMM reduced considerably. During 2011 monthly buying & selling volumes rarely made it above 1.4 million shares whereas from Aug through to November 2010 monthly volumes were well over 5 million shares. Despite the reduced volumes during 2011, sophisticated investors maintained a presence in COMM albeit to a lesser extent than previously. Their influence is represented in the chart below by the gaps between COMM buying (blue) and the ON movements of retail clients (grey) and the gaps between COMM selling (maroon) and the OFF movements of retail clients (black). The gaps or differences in height represent the volume of trades that occurred that were separate to those of retail clients.
1
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec COMM Broker Activity versus Registry Activity - 2011 Broker Activity Registry Activity OFF ON Buys Sells Retail selling has been the trend during all of 2012 apart from June with daily volumes generally subdued. Just over 1 million shares were sold from the holdings of COMM retail clients over the 6 month period.
Sophisticated investors have nevertheless retained a presence as per the surplus trades in evidence (refer to the gaps between red & black, blue & grey)
Data suggests that there has ben an ever present but somewhat camouflaged corporate influence operating from within Commonwealth Securities over the entire 2.5 year period reviewed. Voluntary Suspension 2011 COMM Broker Activity versus Registry Activity - 2012 Net Retail Selling Surplus Broker sells Volumes 2012 Volumes 40
6.5.4.10.6.1 A TWO AND A HALF YEAR TRADING SUMMARY FOR COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES
The following table summarizes COMM trading in the volatile months following the Aug 18 resource announcement up until when M&G completed their buying in early Dec 2010. Although retail trading volumes represent a substantial 12+ million buys and sells overall, the data nevertheless reveals that very high levels of non-retail influences were responsible for the majority of trading.
ASX ACTIVITY REGISTRY DEALINGS SURPLUS TRADES SURPLUS PERIOD SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS TRADES % 2.5 Years 76,624,662 75,215,000 30,978,536 29,717,437 45,646,126 45,497,563 60% Aug 2010 26,084,613 27,680,628 5,259,096 5,454,178 20,825,517 22,226,450 80% Sep, Oct, Nov 19,707,650 18,889,128 7,358,812 7,262,333 12,348,838 11,626,795 62%
Post JORC Totals 45,792,263 46,569,756 12,617,908 12,716,511 33,174,355 33,853,245 73%
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 Jan - Jun 2010 Jul - Dec 2010 Jan - Jun 2011 Jul - Dec 2011 Jan - Jun 2012 COMM 30 Month SUMMARY While it is perfectly legal for corporate entities to co-mingle their orders amongst the retail clients of Commonwealth Securities the overwhelming dominance by such entities combined with an absence of transparency presents acute problems for the integrity of the market.
The size of the problem:
Trading by COMM represents 18.6% of the 409+ mill shares that have traded on the ASX between Jan 2010 and Jun 2012. The next most dominant broker is DMG with only 8%.
COMM retail clients were responsible for around 7.4% of all shares traded, which leaves 11.2% of COMM activity servicing non retail interests. The surplus activity alone equates to more activity than any other broker and yet the activities are opaque to the market.
Also the extremely high level of cross trades within COMMM (i.e.16.9 million over 30 months) gives rise to the possibility for entities to be shorting stock within COMM intraday and then scooping up retail orders to cover positions as they become available in the ensuing panic.
If not shorting, then holdings could be sold down and then reclaimed from the market as retail panic inevitably sets in. All such activity would have been camouflaged from view and may qualify as Wash Trades.
Non retail surplus transactions representing institutional trades & trades by other sophisticated investors many of which are likely to qualify as Wash Trades. Extremely dubious activity during the 2 nd
half of 2010!
Period Jan 2010 to Jun 2012 Trading & Registry Volumes
The situation requires a forensic examination by auditors as the trading data is extremely suspicious given that the market has failed to provide fair price discovery and that a cartel like trading monoply is clearly in evidence. 41
6.5.4.10.7.1 THE INSTITUTIONAL PRESENCE AMONGST RETAIL BROKERS To recap, the trading of institutions within retail brokers represents a strong corporate presence in the market that masquerades as retail activity but is likely to contribute to a substantial amount of institutional share flows on the register. To a certain extent it represents an invisible presence in the market that has had an extremely influential effect on trading as well as creating negative market sentiment. The surplus trades identified of retail brokers and indeed all brokers are assumed to relate to institutional transactions as the numbers are needed to reconcile the large volumes of institutional registry share flows that have occurred. Based on retail disclosures on the register, the market shares of retail brokers as summarized in table 6.5.4.2.1 together with the surplus trades quantified in table 6.5.5.2.1 can be split into retail and institutional components to help clarify the dynamics of trading. The results are as follows:
The splits can be used to more accurately compare how much market activity has been in support of retail trading and how much has been in support of institutional interests. The two aspects of trading of the retail brokers have been indicated for COMM as follows:
In the tables that follow brokers are ranked in terms of their market shares taking into account both retail trades and other trades. Also, in line with the potential for trading by CITI, MSDW and SBAR to be servicing the same institutional clients and supportive of each others trading strategies because of their corporate connections (Refer Sect 6.5.4.9.1) they have been shown as a broker group for comparison against the influence of all other brokers. (Refer Table 3). As an affiliated group they emerge as the single most influential trading interest associated with the trading taking place in CuDeco. The tables reflect the following: Table 1: A straight forward comparison of market share statistics based on information in Section 6.5.4.2.1 that summarizes all ASX trading by brokers over 2.5 years. Table 2: A comparison of broker market shares allowing for institutional and retail trading undertaken by brokers. Some brokers such as DMG, CITI, & MSDW appear to be corporately based without retail clients. Table 3: A comparison taking into account retail and institutional components of broker trading together with the possibility that CITI, MSDW and SBAR may be unified in their trading and therefore need to be considered as a single and influential trading entity.
COMM: 18.6% COMM Ret: 7.4% and COMM Inst: 11.2% Stripped of its retail trades COMM at 11.2% is revealed to be the largest corporate broker by a wide margin. Retail components of all trading over 2.5 years Surplus trades assumed to be mosrly for institutions From 6.5.4.2.1 From 6.5.4.2.1 42
6.5.4.10.7.2 BROKER COMPARISONS
Table1: from Sect 6.5.4.2.1 Table2: allowing for retail & institutional trading Table3: BROKER MARKET SHARES BROKER MARKET SHARES FURTHER DEFINED INSTUTITIONAL INFLUENCE OVER TRADING INSTITUTIONAL RETAIL COMM 18.6%
The broker trading data strengthens the view that institutions are behaving in a cartel like manner with control over trading approaching 80% on the ASX as far as CuDeco is concerned, and with Dark Pool trading thrown into the mix as well, the control over the register is even higher. Concerns about a cartel are particularly relevant when the bulk of buying and selling amongst so many brokers all revolves around the trading activities of just a few institutional shareholders. The next section reveals that in over 2.5 years of trading, CuDecos 5 institutional shareholders have controlled around 333.3 million OFF and ON movements on the register compared to around 409 million buys and sells occurring on the on the ASX. They have been responsible for 70% of all registry movements. To further accentuate cartel issues, 2 of the institutional shareholders have been responsible for 50.3% of all institutional registry activity over the 30 month period and in the 1 st six months of 2012 they have accounted for around 70% of register movements in their own right. By any measure, the trading data portrays a seriously lopsided and dysfunctional market in the trading of CuDeco securities principally due to the activities of 2 institutions but supported by the actions of the remaining 3 institutional shareholders. For an ASX200 company with close to 6,500 other shareholders the situation is clearly unacceptable and the opposite to investor expectations regarding fair markets. The broker network who are likely to have facilitated the institutional dominance over trading 43
Section 5
INSTITUTIONAL REGISTRY ACTIVITY PERIOD JANUARY 2010 to JUNE 2012
44
6.5.5.1.1 INSTITUTIONAL DEALINGS - PERIOD JANUARY 2010 to June 2012 (30 months) The most influential trading entities regarding CuDeco are the major institutional shareholders led by their fund managers. Their trading over the 2.5 year period reviewed has been characterized by extremely elevated volumes compared to all other investors/traders. And despite the massive levels of trading churn put through the market, their holdings have either been retained or added to. Remarkably, the 5 institutional shareholders dont seem to get in each others way with the large amounts of buying and selling supplied to the market with stock freely passing back and forth both on-market and off-market. Their trading very much takes on the appearance of a cartel dictating terms to the rest of the market and as such questions of share price manipulation and the fairness of the market cannot be ignored. The obvious co-operation that occurs between institutions is further brought into focus by the large holding belonging to the M&G Group which is split amongst a number of funds as indicated in various substantial shareholder notices. The various holdings have been distributed across 3 separate institutional shareholders that provide custodial services for the shares. As custodians the institutions are usually mandated to buy and sell shares for income generation. Buying and selling can therefore legitimately feature 3 institutions distributing buying and selling orders across a range of brokers but where all orders effectively relate back to interests associated with M&G. And of course M&G is not the only entity managed by institutions so that the situation is repeated many times over. It represents a deceptive trading environment where many of the orders put through the market by a large number of brokers effectively represent the same interests. Institutional stock lending casts further doubt about the integrity of the market as it ensures downward pressure on prices is continuously maintained despite the diminished portfolio values for the funds being managed and whose shares have bent lent out to facilitate the short selling. Quite tellingly, regular major adjustments to open short positions in relation to CuDeco have occurred off-market without price discovery. There have also been serious discrepancies between the shareholdings of the major lenders and reported open short positions where large increases (i.e. stock loaned out) and large decreases (i.e.; stock returned to lenders) is not reflected in the shareholdings of lenders. High volume turnovers by institutions even when the stock has been in voluntary suspension add further weight to arguments that trading lacks integrity. A further market integrity issue is that institutional dealings cannot be easily reconciled with the brokers acting for them. While analysis can guesstimate who the major brokers must be in acting for them it is simply not possible to know the specifics of trading. The confusion results from broker trades done on behalf of institutions being processed not by the broker but by a settlement specialist who takes no part in buying and selling. By the time trades are settled the brokers responsible for the institutional buying and selling are invisible to the market. The register lists changes to institutional shareholdings but they are referenced to the ASTC participant who settles the transactions, not the actual brokers. On the other hand, retail trading presents as the opposite extreme with their dealings completely transparent and with retail shareholders and their brokers all identified on the register. Research has used the transparent dealings of retail investors and worked backwards to establish the quantities of broker trading left over (i.e.; surplus trades) that must be attributable to institutions based on the share flows that have occurred on the register. The term retail broker is a misnomer because the reality is that brokers can deal with both retail clients and institutional clients (and other corporate clients as well). However where they tend to follow through and settle the transactions for their retail clients and their corporate clients, dealings on behalf of institutions are always forwarded to 3rd party agents for settlement. The volumes of institutional dealings can therefore be estimated by determining the number of retail trades and the number of corporate trades from the register and then simply subtracting from the total number of broker trades to reveal the levels of institutional trading activity.
Reconciling broker buying & selling back to the register over a period of two and a half years is therefore able to reveal a lot about the structure of the CuDeco market and the dominance exercised by institutions. The stranglehold over the market by institutions makes it likely that the functioning of the market has been seriously compromised for the entire period reviewed. 45
6.5.5.2.1 RECONCILIATION OF BROKER BUYING & SELLING WITH THE REGISTER
Appendix 3 lists a summary of broker trading data and a list of registry transactions spanning 2.5 years of trading. The registry data comprises ASX broker settlements and ASTC settlements where the former generally represents retail and corporate clients, and the latter represents a mixture of retail clients, corporate clients and institutional clients. But even so, institutional trading is by far the most prominent feature of ASTC settlements. The data has been summarized to align ASX broker buying & selling data with the corresponding settlement data of their clients who in the main are either retail or corporate investors. Subtracting client registry movements from the trading data of their brokers establishes the pool of surplus trades that are likely to be forwarded to ASTC agents for settlement in favour of institutions.
All ASX Broker Buying & Selling Retail and Corporate Investor Clients Surplus Transactions 46
6.5.5.2.2 BROKERS WHO DONT SETTLE THEIR OWN TRADES Separate to the previous list of brokers who all appear on the register along with their clients are a group of brokers who buy and sell for a range of clients but who rely on 3 rd party settlement agents for the settlement of their transactions. The combined trading of these brokers represents a further 24.6 million sells and 22.2 million buys that like the surplus trades previously identified are also camouflaged from the market through the settlement process. Their trading activity on the ASX is summarized in the table below. The clients of these brokers include retail, corporate and institutional investors but the majority are likely to be institutions as that is where the majority of 3 rd party settlements appear to end up. PID CODE SELLS BUYS
MFGSA 1043 40,385 0 Sub Totals 20,703,445 20,681,625
Sub Totals 2,942,100 1,427,528
Sub Totals 985,293 116,664
Registry share flows for retail and corporate clients serviced by the above brokers and settled by ASTC or ACH agents amounted to 11.2 million sells and 5.8 million buys. It leaves a further 13.4 million sells and 16.4 million buys as surplus trades likely to have been settled on behalf of institutions. ASX TRADES SHAREHOLER REGISTRY MOVEMENTS SURPLUS TRADES PID BROKER SELLS BUYS OFF ON SELLS BUYS % OTHER As above 24,630,838 22,225,817 11,215,126 5,793,690 13,415,712 16,432,127 63.7%
6.5.5.2.3 SUMMARY The two summaries are combined below to give an overview of trading and to draw attention to the gulf that exists between transparent trading and opaque trading. The term transparent is used in the sense retail investors, corporate investors and the company with its Buy Back are all connected to the brokers responsible for their buying and selling so that a clear audit trail is evident. And opaque is used in the sense that the trades that are forwarded to ASTC participants to be settled and which mostly represent institutional trades, are not identifiable with the brokers responsible for them.
Transparent Dealings Opaque Dealings Effectively 72.4% of trading taking place is camouflaged by the settlement process where the linkages between the active brokers in the market and the trading entities initiating the trades are removed. It makes it virtually impossible to monitor what is taking place without the official auditing of accounts.
47
The vagueness associated with official reporting represents a serious breach of system integrity, particularly given that the non-retail activity of brokers has had a very major impact on shaping the CuDeco market. The issues become even more acute when the dominant non-retail influence associated with the 293 million sells and 298.5 million buys identified in Section 6.5.5.2.3 is traced back to just 5 institutional shareholders. 6.5.5.3.1 INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ISSUES The fragmentation of institutional orders and their distribution to the majority of brokers who actively trade CuDeco, followed by the camouflaging of broker details through ASTC agents taking over settlement duties, provides enormous scope for institutional fund managers to unfairly influence pricing outcomes. It would appear that fund managers are able to travel under the radar of both the systems gatekeepers and the investing public with virtually a free reign to impose their trading agendas over the market. Two and a half years of data clearly demonstrates the influence they have had with their trading strongly resembling the actions of a cartel dictating terms to the rest of the market. Also evident from the data is an absence of regulatory oversight in the face of glaring trading anomalies as the anomalies have persisted for an extended period of time and still occur in daily trading. The key trading issue is not that lots of brokers buy and sell under instructions for institutions but the fact that the same entities by issuing so many orders that effectively cancel each other out are engaging in non- genuine buying and selling and are likely to be rigging and distorting the markets bidding system while doing so. The weight of buying & selling able to be generated by institutional fund managers means that market forces are easily overcome in favour of institutional trading objectives and yet with all of their trading activity their holdings are retained and/or added to. The obvious support for each other in the market amounts to collusion and constitutes a reprehensible situation given the requirement for fair markets. 6.5.5.3.2 INSITUTIONAL FUND MANAGEMENT ISSUES Investment funds placed within an institutional omnibus account are passive investments and rely on a manager to make the buying and selling calls. The fact that the funds are under management suggests that they are there for the longer term yet the reality is that the institutional shareholdings are the most vigorously traded holdings on the CuDeco register. The trading has had by far the most influential impact on the share price of any holder or any other group yet the over trading and the active shorting of CuDeco would have resulted (at least on paper) in a very substantial capital depreciation in holdings over the 30 month period. It is an important point as the trading behaviours may not be motivated by the traditional profit motive that is mandatory with most investment strategies and one of the reasons we have markets in the first place. Trading by institutions may in fact be taking into account big picture corporate incentives and fund management incentives as well, with the former necessarily bringing with it issues related to share price manipulation and the latter raising issues of propriety in the management of funds that have been entrusted to them. Importantly, in terms of profit considerations, the churning activity of institutions takes on the appearance of a zero sum game. A range of brokers effectively buying and selling shares to each other from the same shareholdings cant all make profits. The losses of some would represent the profits of others and over time maybe they take it in turns profiting from trades. However, it could well be that achieving control over the market is at times a more useful activity than achieving profitable trades, and such thinking may even lead to a tolerance for loss making trading strategies. Institutions are actually well placed to pursue loss making trading initiatives with funds under management fully capable of wearing any losses. Also the tolerance for loss making trading is quite prevalent in modern markets so the suggestion is not as strange as it might first appear. A prime example is found with institutions lending their shares knowing that lower prices will result from the short selling that they facilitate. Along the same line of thinking share price suppression may help certain entities acting through institutions to pick up large tranches of shares cheaply either from the market itself or directly from the 48
company through placements. A companys share price is universally held up as the final arbiter of value when funding discussions take place so a low share price can actually be a good bargaining chip for entities seeking strong exposure to a company and its projects. Trading activity that can pressure a share price may even make good corporate sense if the activity is able to travel under the radar and not attract concerns relating to share price manipulation - even though essentially that is what it is. Such thinking is actually supported by historical precedent where entities being prosecuted or fined or even questioned on the basis of share price manipulation appear to be extremely rare events. 6.5.5.3.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR CuDECO In line with the above observations, the CuDeco share price has been constantly kept under pressure and at undervalued levels and has been forced substantially lower coinciding with key milestones and coinciding with the company entering funding discussions. There have also been occasions where the price has been strongly controlled while large numbers of shares have been accumulated. The situation is unacceptable particularly in view of the broad based data trends that reveal unorthodox trading activity and where it should be a straight forward matter to identify and assess the reasonableness and intent of trading strategies and to take action where manipulative activity is obviously on display.
6.5.5.4.1 SUMMARY OF BROKER & REGISTRY DATA Total broker activity over the 30 months reviewed came to just under 409 million sales and 409 million purchases. The break up between brokers trades and how they translated to the register is as follows: Broker Activity Description Transparent Registry Activity Transparent Trades 103.9 M Sells & 104.6M Buys Retail Entities, Corporate Entities and the Company Buy Back. Ref 6.5.5.2.1 OFF 103,871,013 ON 104,633,549 (as noted on the register against the brokers responsible for the buying & selling)
Non Transparent Trades 24.6M Sells & 22.2M Buys Retail and Corporate Entities, Ref 6.5.5.2.2 Transparent Registry Activity 11,215,126 OFF and 5,793,690 ON
Non Transparent Trades 293.8M Sells & 298.5 M Buys Broker Trades forwarded to ASTC Agents for settlement in favour of Retail, Corporate & Institutional Entities. Ref 6.5.5.2.3 Non Transparent Registry Activity 293,816,191 OFF & 298,475,091 ON Part of ASTC Settlements which totalled 323.7 M OFF & 329.5 M ON
The trades identified in Category A and Category B above all appear on the register accompanied by the brokers responsible for the trades.
The broker trades identified as surplus trades in Category C above generally show up in ASTC registry listings although all dont make a smooth transition to the register. Many of the surplus trades are actually wash trades as brought to attention in Research Paper 6.4 Section 6.4.2.8, and as Wash Trades they dont actually flow through to the register. A further complicating factor is the fact that many ASTC settlements also take into account trades taking place Off-Market away from the ASX (i.e.; the so called Dark Pool trades). Such trades add to registry volumes compensating for the losses because of Wash Trades.
ASTC registry dealings therefore are complicated to assess but the end result has been for total ASTC settlements amounting to 323.7 million OFF movements (sales) and 329.5 million ON movements (purchases) comprising the surplus trades identified and Dark Pool off-market activity.
A. B. C. 49
6.5.5.4.2 ASTC SETTLEMENTS The complete breakdown of ASTC settlements over the 2.5 years of trading reviewed is provided in the following table. Settlements corresponding to institutional shareholdings have been shaded.
The over riding trend with ASTC settlements is for institutional shareholders to be the main recipients of share flows, and by a very wide margin. The breakdown of all ASTC settlements over the 30 month period was as follows:
Institutional shareholders account for around 94% of all ASTC settlements. Individually, the institutions would represent formidable traders in their own right and would wield significant impact over the market however the synchronized trading that has taken place between them of (i.e.; the facilitation of trades back and forth between each other both on-market and off-market) would magnify their impact on the market very substantially. It also raises the serious cartel conduct/market fixing type issues that require vigorous investigation as the spurious dealings in relation to CuDeco are likely to be repeated across the entire ASX. Category C surplus trades as per Table 6.5.5.4.1 therefore contribute to ASTC settlement registry numbers as follows.
Surplus Trades as Summarized Previously 293,816,191 298,475,091 (Ref: Table 6.5.5.4.1) Wash Trades as Previously Estimated 87,081,032 89,077,916 (Ref: Paper 6,4 Sect 6.4.2.8) Net Surplus Trades 206,735,159 209,397,175
Net Surplus Trades 206,735,159 209,397,175 Dark Trade Estimates 116,979,521 120,086,869 (Ref: Paper 6,4 Sect 6.4.2.10) Total Trades Settled by ASTC Agents 323,714,680 329,484,044
The data strongly suggests that any failure by the market in being able to provide fair price discovery in the trading of CuDeco Securities is likely to be the direct result of institutional fund managers flooding the market with non-genuine orders. Their level of dominance over all trading is certainly incompatible with a market system that is meant to operate fairly, genuinely and with integrity. The vast majority of ASTC settlements have been in favour of institutions Less Giving: Then, plus Results in 50
6.5.5.5.1 LEADING BROKERS REGARDING INSTITUTIONAL BUYING and SELLING The brokers likely to be providing the bulk of institutional buying and selling are again summarized below. Analysis of leading brokers was previously done in Sect 6.5.4.10.7.2. The list is based on the numbers of surplus trades identified over and above retail and corporate client orders. PID BROKER Surplus Sells Surplus Buys Surplus % Totals 1402 COMM 45,752,159 45,486,684 60.1% 91,238,843 2103 DMG 34,190,490 31,410,111 100.0% 65,600,601 2032 CITI 29,535,665 29,575,096 100.0% 59,110,761 6788 SOSL 15,544,978 15,641,367 92.5% 31,186,345 2992 MSDW 8,681,210 20,476,144 100.0% 29,157,354 1572 MACQ 14,325,950 14,108,822 91.9% 28,434,772 1123 BBY 13,682,619 14,135,585 66.4% 27,818,204 1442 ETRD 12,300,737 11,662,754 47.3% 23,963,491 3610 GSP 11,713,826 12,077,319 97.0% 23,791,145 1103 CSUI 10,246,191 10,861,565 100.0% 21,107,756 1505 UBS 12,152,954 8,044,138 45.5% 20,197,092 6386 AIEX 10,149,811 10,006,788 43.3% 20,156,599 3663 MERL 9,654,118 9,201,293 100.0% 18,855,411 3383 SBAR 8,104,985 8,828,633 68.5% 16,933,618 1382 HUB24 7,238,774 7,338,712 89.8% 14,577,486 6776 PSL 6,281,474 4,488,738 74.8% 10,770,212 1543 BELL 5,309,668 4,145,552 53.4% 9,455,220 2552 TPPM 4,217,867 4,143,668 78.5% 8,361,535 2893 D2MX 3,663,303 3,897,907 97.0% 7,561,210 1088 MORR 3,417,554 3,417,554 99.7% 6,835,108 2972 JPM 3,085,982 3,579,748 87.0% 6,665,730 6086 HART 2,364,891 1,849,321 81.2% 4,214,212 2442 MACP 1,528,067 1,619,275 26.2% 3,147,342 2702 RBS 1,112,404 1,219,950 80.0% 2,332,354 2338 ORDS 1,256,043 379,275 32.9% 1,635,318 5128 TAYL 786,000 833,281 86.6% 1,619,281 2662 CMCS 733,018 628,549 30.5% 1,361,567 2921 INTS 218,091 854,153 92.3% 1,072,244 4064 RBSM 1,125,502 -91,085 22.1% 1,034,417
Separate to the above list of leading institutional brokers are the brokers who dont settle their own trades and forward them to ASTC agents and/or ACH agents who in turn generally settle heavily in favour of institutions. Some of the following brokers may therefore have also made significant contributions to institutional buying and selling. BROKER PID Surplus % Surplus Sells Surplus Buys Totals SUSQ 9452 100.0% 7,420,378 7,434,726 14,855,104 INST 2172 100.0% 5,405,076 5221,925 10,627,001 FOST 1232 100.0% 1,508,690 1803,806 3,312,496 MINC 2302 100.0% 1,496,937 1570,387 3,067,324 IMCP 9512 100.0% 1,498,323 1460,734 2,959,057 PERSH 1791 100.0% 1,004,670 493,094 1,497,764 TIMB 2382 100.0% 4,79,886 452,584 932,470 LODG 3292 100.0% 7,13,239 120,453 833,692 NAL 1291 100.0% 343,672 390,685 734,357 DAIW 3063 100.0% 273,004 347,032 620,036 ITG 3453 100.0% 116,077 419,919 535,996 WBC 1051 100.0% 199,802 285,913 485,715 BTIG 2452 100.0% 376,565 76,565 453,130 GETCO 2292 100.0% 215,151 215,230 430,381 MOELIS 2111 100.0% 385,884 0 385,884 CLSA 2212 100.0% 288,788 8,5025 373,813 EVAN 1471 100.0% 271,717 1,0175 281,892 RBC 2542 100.0% 216,741 35,641 252,382 OPTV 9232 100.0% 113,431 122,035 235,466 The leading role by COMM dispels the popular misconception that it functions mainly as a retail broker.
COMM is clearly the largest institutional broker and by a very wide margin.
Put another way, an extremely large amount of institutional business is conducted behind the camouflage afforded by COMMs large retail client base. An assessment of who Fosters have been dealing for would assist greatly in understanding their spurious report released immediately after the Aug 18 resource upgrade was announced which called for $1.20 when their previous advice to the market was a valuation of $9.60 51
6.5.5.6.1 REGISTRY BREAKDOWN FOR 30 MONTHS OF TRADING The entire registry breakdown for the 30 months of trading is as follows. The data excludes placement shares. ASX Broker Settlements
OFF ON NET Retail Entities 96,185,709 79,351,896 -16,618,813 Broker Nominees 66,464,866 65,740,808 -724,058 Corporate Entities 18,809,798 16,988,822 -1,820,976 CuDeco 90,632 14,086,521 13,995,889
Total Registry Activity 505,337,188 505,306,212 184,024
Combining broker based registry summaries and ASTC based registry summaries under the various shareholder categories provides the following overview of trading. Broker Nominees are viewed as facilitating settlements for short selling and short covering transactions and not representing share flows denoting ownership changes. They have therefore been excluded from data reflecting ownership changes.
Again, the single most prominent feature over the 30 months reviewed is the dominance over trading by the relatively small number of institutional shareholders. A summary of institutional trading including shares accumulated through placements is provided in the table that follows. Note: ANZ Nominees ceased trading in Oct 2010 following the August 2010 resource upgrade with the bulk of its holding then crossed to JP Morgan Nominees which commenced trading in its own right at the same time.
30 MONTH REGISTRY SUMMARY Shareholder Category OFF ON NET
6.5.5.6.2 INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ACTIVITY: Summary ENTITY Holding as at Jan 1 st 2010 OFF ON NET Holding as at Jun 29 th 2012 ANZ NOMINEES 4,744,004 13,544,264 8,800,260 -4,744,004 0 CITICORP NOMINEES 2,080,124 124,057,631 123,164,692 -892,939 1,187,185 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES 5,078,071 69,493,625 83,845,779 14,352,154 19,430,225 J P MORGAN NOMINEES 3,397,855 14,242,707 32,475,648 18,232,941 21,630,796 JP MORGAN NOMINEES 0 6,502,897 31,023,093 24,520,196 24,520,196 NATIONAL NOMINEES 5,145,784 99,615,532 99,639,309 23,777 5,169,561
The trading data is brought more clearly into perspective by removing placement shares and reversing the rebalancing of holdings that occurred between some institutional holdings through off-market crossings in Jan 2011. The following table more closely portrays the impact of their trading in the market and Dark Pool exchanges, and forms the basis of the graphs that follow. ENTITY OFF ON NET ANZ NOMINEES 13,544,264 8,800,260 -4,744,004 CITICORP NOMINEES 124,057,631 123,164,692 -892,939 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES 41,695,946 45,171,064 3,475,118 J P MORGAN NOMINEES 14,242,707 25,681,542 11,438,835 JP MORGAN NOMINEES 6,502,897 9,544,966 3,042,069 NATIONAL NOMINEES 99,615,532 99,639,309 23,777 TOTALS 299,658,977 312,001,833 12,342,856
Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees have achieved extraordinary levels of symmetrical trading churn for marginal net changes, while other institutional shareholders have churned large quantities of stock with a bias towards accumulation.
Institutions 1 2 3 4
1,2, & 3 Citicorp National HSBC Non Institutions ANZ JP Morgan DOMINANCE OVER THE REGISTER BY CuDECOs INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERS REGISTRY SHARE FLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH 2.5 YEARS OF TRADING 30 Month Registry Activity Summary 1. Retail 21.8% 2. Corporate 7.0% 3. CuDeco 1.6% 4. Institutions 69.6%
KEY
Combined Institutional Holdings as at Jan 1, 2010 20,445,838 shares (14.8% Ownership)
Combined Institutional Holdings as at Jun 30, 2012 71,698,305 shares (38.3% Ownership) Jan 2010 Jun 2012 Placements + 39.2 M Trading + 12.2 M Accumulation Total Registry Movements OFF ON 438,800,819 439,011,283
Total Registry Movements OFF ON 67,874,628 68,022,177
53
6.5.5.6.3 COMMENT The strong corporate positioning that has obviously taken place behind the scenes over the 2.5 years of trading reviewed is somewhat paradoxical given the poor market sentiment associated with: A resource portrayed in the financial media as dubious and/or confusing; A persistently languishing share price, and; Perennially negative views upheld in the media, brokerage houses and on public forums irrespective of operational gains made by the company and emerging fundamental value. While contradictions about company value, the attractiveness or otherwise of Rocklands, the future prospects of the company etc. etc. can be debated both subjectively and endlessly, and they have been, the two constants that remain and which can be conclusively demonstrated are: Extensive trading data anomalies resulting from the trading by sophisticated investors spanning two and a half years of trading, and; Increasing corporate ownership by the institutions trading the stock where combined holdings have increased from 14.8% to 38.3% over the same period and to 51% if the passive holding (i.e. a non- trading holding) of new major investor New Apex Asia is also considered. The situation represents an extraordinary accomplishment in achieving such high levels of increased ownership without impacting the share price and as such may be demonstrating how corporate assets are rendered cheap and acquired by stealth while a companys share price is managed through manipulative trading strategies. If so then the behaviours are officially sanctioned as regulators have to date approved the trading and have been disinclined to pursue what can only be regarded as highly dubious trading practices. Practices that have delivered an effective trading monopoly over the market and raised serious integrity issues about the markets ability to function in the manner expected of it. 54
6.5.5.7.1 CITICORP NOMINEES AND NATIONAL NOMINEES The issues of share price manipulation and/or cartel activity are given further prominence by the dominant trading profiles of Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees over the 2.5 year period.
Entity
Shares Owned Jun 29, 2012 Ownership of Company Market Share of all Registry Activity Citicorp Nominees 1,187,185 0.63% 28.2% National Nominees 5,169,561 2.75% 22.1% Total 50.3%
The trading by the 2 entities represents an incredible accomplishment but it comes with extremely worrisome implications regarding the fairness of the market for all other participants over the period. The dominance and control over the market by CuDecos 5 institutional shareholders as demonstrated by them being responsible for 70% of all buying and selling over 2.5 years of trading is the single most worrisome feature of trading. It is made infinitely worse by a situation where just two entities have controlled 50% of the entire market in their own right. The characteristics of cartel behaviour are clearly in evidence. The control over the market escalated following the release of a resource upgrade on Aug 18, 2010. It resulted in a major market shakeup which allowed the opportunity for the M&G Group to step in and secure a cheap 10 million share placement in Oct 2010 and to conduct an on-market buying campaign during Nov & Dec 2010. From Jan 2011 the escalation in the control over trading by the 5 institutions continued with control extending to 85% of all trading in the first 6 month of 2012 as shown.
Citicorp Nominees National Nominees TOTALS Period OFF ON Market Share OFF ON Market Share 2 Entities All 5 2010 Pre-JORC 25,341,495 24,668,544 27% 16,943,994 16,498,938 18% 45% 66% 2010 Post-JORC 38,966,199 38,961,495 25% 24,447,238 25,887,114 16% 42% 64% 2011 29,663,529 29,951,014 24% 38,133,397 37,956,716 31% 55% 71% 2012-6 months 28,777,948 28,250,156 42% 19,684,710 19,130,687 29% 70% 85% TOTALS 122,749,171 121,831,209 28% 99,209,339 99,473,455 22% 50.3% 70%
The increased instutional control over trading following M&G acquisitions late Dec 2010 has been accompanied by an escalation in off-market activity referred to as Dark Pool Trading as shown below. The period following the resource announcement witnessed a share price collapse as institutional brokers flooded the market with non genuine selling and buying much of which didnt impact the register (i.e.; Wash Trades). Genuine selling was restricted to retail investors who were either panicked or margined out of their holdings. To highlight the highly irregular volumes of Wash Trades and Dark Trades that have occurred and to put matters into perspective, anomalous share flows have been compared to all registry share flows of shareholders and also to total ASX volumes of buying & selling. Pre JORC JORC Post JORC Dark Trades & Wash Trades Compared to: Jan to May 2010 Jun & Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct & Nov 2010 Dec 2010 to Dec 2011 Jan to Jun 2012 Registry Volumes 29% 45% 119% 41% 45% 35% 51 % ASX Volumes 22% 81% 54% 70% 31% 48% 103 %
Two entities have controlled more than half of all trading over a 30 month period Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees controlled 70% of all registry activity in the first half of 2012, and together with the other 3 institutions they controlled 85%. Such cartel like levels of control over an ASX200 company with 7500+ other shareholders is clearly breaching principles of fair trading. Their high volumes of non genuine churn based trading has also facilitated the accumulatiion of cheap shares from retail investors many of whom have sold in frustration at a share price being prevented from reflecting strong gains made by the company.
The control of 50.3% of all share flows over a 2.5 year period further reveals their strong monopoly over trading.
Wash Trade Stats Increasing Dark Trade Activity Dark Trades Stats 55
6.5.5.7.2 COMPARISON TO OTHER TRADERS The high levels of trading volumes generated by Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees and their almost perfect symmetry in terms of quantities of shares bought and sold provide an immediate sign that something quite peculiar is playing out with their trading. They certainly suggest a level of trading wizardry not normally associated with genuine buyers and sellers acting independently in fair and orderly markets where large amounts of buying and selling have a significant impact on prices. Comparison to other leading corporate entities trading CuDeco over the 30 month period further helps to put the dominance of institutions into perspective.
CORPORATE ENTITY OFF ON
INSTITUTION OFF ON BRISPOT NOMINEES 11,687,946 11,945,836
ANZ NOMINEES 13,544,264 8,800,260 JERSEY INVESTMENTS 2,734,878 2,614,878
J P MORGAN NOMINEES 14,242,707 25,681,542 UBS WEALTH 1,316,362 1,102,163
JP MORGAN NOMINEES 6,502,897 9,544,966 VALDARNO P/L 726,248 1,018,607
NATIONAL NOMINEES 99,615,532 99,639,309 ASGARD CAPITAL 666,371 674,991
OTHERS 10,322,645 20,805,224
TOTALS 33,291,456 42,008,537
TOTALS 299,658,977 312,001,833
Counting JP & J P Morgan Nominees and ANZ Nominees as one group as the two Morgan groups are obviously affiliated and ANZ Nomine crossed the bulk of its shares to JP Morgan Nominees when it ceased trading, each institution in their own right eclipses all corporate activity. If they have been affiliated with their trading and acting as a cartel as the trading data suggests, then the collective influence over all trading by the 5 institutions can only be described as massive. Also, some of the corporate trading suggests affiliations back to institutions as well which would potentially increase the influence of institutions further. For example Brispot Nominees is connected to broker UBS Securities who is involved in settlements far exceeding their buying and selling profile in the market and suggesting that they are working closely with major institutional interests. i.e.; UBS settlements have totalled 99.4 million OFF movements and 99.7 million ON movements on behalf of unknown clients while as a broker they have only put 24.3 million sells and 20.1 million buys through the ASX market of which their only significant client Brispot Nominees accounts for about half. The remainder presumably represent institutional trades settled by ASTC agents. The numbers certainly signify the strong ties between the trading of Brispot and the dealings of UBS Securities which extend to institutions through the large settlement involvement of UBS Securities. The opaque behind the scenes dealings certainly dont ease concerns regarding share price manipulation The ease with which shares have passed back and forth between the most sophisticated investors in the market place over such a long period of time provokes deep suspicion. Simply because there are no friends in finance unless there are strong mutual benefits involved from co-operation. Usually, large volumes of genuine selling places share prices under pressure, and similarly, large volumes of genuine buying causes strong price re-ratings. The cosy trading relationships that support high volumes of trading churn and seemingly without a profit motive because of the zero sum game nature of such activity, are therefore highly dubious. While there is an argument that the ready accommodation of buying and selling demonstrates strong liquidity it may also be demonstrating share price manipulation given that the share flows are effectively back and forth between affiliated parties with control over prices that have cost retail investors very considerable amounts of money.
56
The extensive role that Dark Pool trading has played adds further to suspicions about prices being maintained under pressure on the ASX with selling to trading partners leading to lower prices - with the shares retrieved off-market through Dark Pool exchanges - without an impact on prices. It is about the only explanation that makes sense of the incongruous volumes of shares being exchanged off-market. (Refer Dark Trade anomalies, Research Paper 6.4 Sect 2) Any attempt to assess what is taking place with trading at least needs to take into account the following established trends: Extraordinary levels of dominance over trading by a small number of institutional shareholders; A share price that collapsed following a confusing resource statement and has remained capped for long periods of time since, despite dramatic gains in the operational strength of the company and positive clarifications about the resource; A persistent undervaluation of the company compared to its peers and to likely project economics; A share price that has failed in its role of fair price discovery as demonstrated by the company capitalizing on cheap prices through extensive Buy Back programs, by consistently raising funds at strong premiums to the share price, and by having a major supplier willingly take shares at a premium in lieu of a substantial payment for services provided, and; Institutions reflecting strong growth in ownership of the company through on-market buying and through company placements, despite their extensive stock lending, short selling and price capping activity.
6.5.5.8.1 A MONTH BY MONTH REVIEW OF INSTITUTIONAL TRADING The share price performance of the company belies what is happening behind the scenes both corporately and operationally, making share price manipulation a compelling argument to explain chronic data anomalies. The case for collusion is also brought more strongly into focus by observing the trading synergies between Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees as reflected by monthly trading data. By way of example, the trading of institutions during Jan 2010 is summarized below where Total Movements (i.e.; Movements ON and OFF the register) have been used for comparative figures. The involvement of Citicorp Nominees equated to 48% of all institutional activity for the month, and the involvement of National Nominees equated to 11% as shown. JAN 2010 OFF ON ANZ Nominees 867,738 303,195 Citicorp Nominees 1,308,460 1,243,859 National Nominees 406,193 165,854 HSBC Nominees 344,684 559,093 J P Morgan 0 65,749
Totals 2,927,075 2,337,750
Monthly data for Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees has been summarized for all months over the 2.5 years reviewed. Refer Appendix 4. In the chart that follows, combined market shares above 60% have been highlighted by shading to indicate the periods where they have been the main drivers behind institutional control over the market.
Citi % =(1.31 + 1.24) million (2.93 + 2.34) million * 100 48% Nat % =(0.41 + 0.17) million (2.93 + 2.34) million * 100 11%
Market Share Calc. Combined, their market share of institutional trading was 59% 57
As well as showing the impact that Citicorp Nominees and National Nominees have had within the group of institutions, their impact on trading compared to the rest of the market has also been tabulated. Combined market shares in excess of 50% of all trading have also been shaded. Finally, the combined market share of all 5 institutions has been provided to demonstrate the consistent levels of control they have exercised over the entire market on a monthly basis for at least the 2.5 years covered by research. Levels of control over 50% of the entire market have been highlighted as well.
SHARE OF ALL INSTITUTIONAL TRADING
INSTITUTIONAL SHARE OF ALL TRADING
CITICORP NATIONAL 2 Combined Leading 2 Institutions only All 5 Institutions 2 0 1 0
Jan 48% 11% 59% 22% 36% Feb 24% 16% 40% 21% 53% Mar 20% 19% 39% 22% 57% Apr 14% 33% 47% 28% 61% May 24% 22% 47% 25% 54% Jun 59% 34% 93% 73% 78% Jul 56% 31% 87% 69% 79% Aug 47% 31% 79% 48% 61% Sep 48% 28% 76% 56% 75% Oct 34% 18% 52% 35% 66% Nov 19% 18% 37% 19% 51% Dec 31% 26% 57% 36% 62% 2 0 1 1
Jan 33% 40% 73% 39% 54% Feb 35% 38% 73% 51% 69% Mar 48% 38% 86% 67% 78% Apr 26% 46% 71% 62% 87% May 24% 24% 49% 32% 66% Jun 18% 50% 69% 42% 62% Jul 42% 50% 93% 63% 73% Aug 30% 54% 84% 62% 73% Sep 9% 87% 97% 91% 94% Oct 38% 58% 96% 93% 98% Nov 38% 41% 79% 54% 68% Dec 37% 41% 78% 55% 71% 2 0 1 2
Jan 50% 48% 97% 80% 82% Feb 52% 38% 90% 74% 83% Mar 55% 32% 88% 81% 92% Apr 50% 31% 81% 70% 87% May 43% 31% 74% 59% 80% Jun 44% 24% 67% 57% 85%
COMMENTS: The combined share flows of all institutions over the 2.5 year period was 299.4 million shares moved OFF and 312.1 million shares moved ON representing 70% of all registry activity. Citicorp and National Nominees alone represent just over 50% of all registry share flows with 223.7 million OFF and 312.1 million ON. The increased patterns of control over trading also follow a pattern of increased levels of ownership over the company. Price containment has followed increasing institutional ownership over the company as has the amount of Dark Pool trading undertaken, particularly following significant de-risking events achieved by the company late 2011 early Jan 2012. Price containment has also been accompanied by an increase in short selling by institutions also following the de-risking of the Rocklands late 2011 and into 2012 with the register suggesting that institutions are both the lenders of stock and the purchasers of shares sold short. It is difficult to explain the unusual symmetry and volumes of share flows in terms other than collusion between institutional fund managers and the wide network of brokers they engage.
58
The dominant trading of Citicorp and National Nominees is evident in the chart where their combined share of monthly institutional activity was around 80% for most of the time and averaged 73% over the 30 month period. For clarification, market share refers to all registry activity (i.e. movements both OFF and ON the register) which in turn resulted from both buying and selling on the ASX and through Dark Pool exchanges away from the ASX.
The dominance of Citicorp and National Nominees over the entire market is revealed even more fully when their market share is compared to the registry activity of all shareholders. Their combined market share of all registry activity averaged 50% across all 30 months but as evidenced in the chart was up around 80% for a substantial period of time. The extensive volumes of Dark Pool trades undertaken is thought to be the main reason for their out performance compared to all other shareholders.
CITICORP & NATIONAL NOMINEES SHARE OF INSTITUTIONAL TRADING 2010 2011 2012
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n CITICORP & NATIONAL NOMINEES MARKET SHARE OF ALL REGISTRY ACTIVITY The combined trading of Citicorp & National makes them leading trading institutions by a wide margin. 2010 2011 2012 High levels of control over all activity in their own right 6.5.5.8.2 6.5.5.8.3 59
The dominance of institutions as a group is highlighted further by the following graphic which compares the combined registry activity of the leading 2 traders (i.e. Citicorp & National Nominees) to total shareholder movements, and the combined registry activity of all 5 institutional shareholders to total shareholder movements.
All 5 institutions accounted for 70% of all registry activity over the 30 month period with their outperformance in Mar & Apr 2011, and again in Sep & Oct 2011 associated with extensive off market activity while the stock was in voluntary suspension. Even ignoring suspension months, institutional trading is clearly seen to be the dominant force in the market with large volumes of shares effectively flowing back and forth between each other through the services of a large number of brokers acting for the same client(s). The trading has all the characteristics of a cartel monopolizing the market and controlling pricing outcomes, strongly led by 2 dominant members. Two principal traders passing stock back and forth between themselves is of course an essential requirement to be able to achieve remarkable trading statistics such as: OFF Register ON Register 124,057,631 shares 123,164,692 shares 99,615,532 shares 99,639,309 shares
In terms of collusion between institutional fund managers it is especially curious that National Nominees and Citicorp Nominees stepped back from their dominant trading profiles while the M&G Group conducted their on-market buying program during Nov 2010 and then promptly resumed their prominence with National almost doubling their trading profile from Dec 2010 right through to Jun 2012.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n REGISTRY SHARE FLOWS OF THE LEADING 2 INSTITUTIONS COMPARED TO ALL 5 INSTITUTIONS 2010 2011 2012 Market Share of all registry activity by all 5 institutions Market Share of all registry activity by Citi & National November 2010 Registry Flows INSTITUTION OFF ON Citicorp Nominees 2,641,280 2,385,038 National Nominees 2,789,685 2,040,033 HSBC Nominees 2,890,182 4,436,380 J P Morgan 409,609 6,854,608 JP Morgan 1,411,923 767,497
Citicorp National November Market Share 19% 18% Pre Nov 2010 Avg. (10 months) 37% 24% Post Nov 2010 Avg. (19 months) 37% 42%
M&G Buying Dramatic Increase Curious Fall 6.5.5.8.4 Corresponding to M&G accumulating 60
APPENDICES
Appendix 1: TOP 20 SHAREHOLDER LISTS FROM 2006 to 2011 Pg. 61 Appendix 2: BROKER TRADING SUMMARY: JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012 Pg. 63 Appendix 3: BROKER and REGISTRY SUMMARIES JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012 Pg. 65 Appendix 4: INSTITUTIONAL REGISTRY SUMMARIES: JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012 Pg. 67 Appendix 5: ASX PARTICIPANT CODES Pg. 69 Appendix 6: LEADING RETAIL BROKERS - MONTHLY TRADING STATISTICS Pg. 72
61
APPENDIX 1: TOP 20 SHAREHOLDER LISTS FROM 2006 to 2011
2006
2007
2008
62
2009
2010
2011
63
APPENDIX 2: BROKER TRADING SUMMARY JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012
Note: The settlements attended to by ASTC agents involve buying & selling done by ASX brokers and then forwarded to them to finalize. It is assumed that ASTC Participants also look after off-market (Dark Pool) transactions Institutions 67
APPENDIX 4: INSTITUTIONAL REGISTRY SUMMARIES - JAN 2010 TO JUNE 2012
2010
2011
2012
Institutional Entity OFF ON
OFF ON
OFF ON JAN ANZ Nominees 867,738 303,195
0 0
0 0
Citicorp Nominees 1,308,460 1,243,859
1,320,405 1,420,088
4,464,222 4,415,011
National Nominees 406,193 165,854
1,687,464 1,642,282
4,073,132 4,459,128
HSBC Nominees 344,684 559,093
728,400 1,002,689
131,232 116,927
J P Morgan Nominees 0 65,749
35,959 316,785
244,259 0
JP Morgan Nominees 0 0
93,206 91,368
18,494 0
Totals 2,927,075 2,337,750
3,865,434 4,473,212
8,931,339 8,991,066 FEB ANZ Nominees 971,685 693,511
0 0
0 0
Citicorp Nominees 1,103,107 1,103,556
3,447,396 3,350,544
4,554,683 4,567,017
National Nominees 1,015,941 494,039
3,710,354 3,749,544
3,460,668 3,171,990
HSBC Nominees 1,824,626 1,744,139
965,180 894,183
364,166 600,683
J P Morgan Nominees 203,575 50,107
932,505 1,091,363
312,380 354,955
JP Morgan Nominees 0 0
740,857 535,177
90,065 48,065
Totals 5,118,934 4,085,352
9,796,292 9,620,811
8,781,962 8,742,710 MAR ANZ Nominees 1,531,357 1,388,170
8,593,945 10,300,391 MONTHLY SUMMARIES 2010 OFF ON Jan 2,927,075 2,337,750 Feb 5,118,934 4,085,352 Mar 7,126,869 7,241,506 Apr 4,403,308 6,234,093 May 6,352,776 5,412,639 Jun 16,734,542 16,356,778 Jul 18,967,721 18,753,256 Aug 25,939,655 26,423,450 Sep 30,568,729 30,403,424 Oct 16,792,326 16,778,604 Nov 10,142,679 16,483,556 Dec 9,931,858 14,017,770 2011 OFF ON Jan 3,865,434 4,473,212 Feb 9,796,292 9,620,811 Mar 11,359,200 10,231,934 Apr 2,128,022 2,970,951 May 9,517,418 9,541,604 Jun 6,039,205 5,948,330 Jul 11,307,909 10,483,484 Aug 12,723,797 11,965,204 Sep 2,793,657 2,693,335 Oct 1,943,775 2,103,297 Nov 7,245,117 8,566,643 Dec 8,593,945 10,300,391 2012 OFF ON Jan 8,931,339 8,991,066 Feb 8,781,962 8,742,710 Mar 12,910,072 13,811,697 Apr 7,199,546 7,332,963 May 7,984,871 8,593,957 Jun 11,530,944 11,102,066 Totals 299,658,977 312,001,833