Global Oil and Gas - Seasonal Drop in LNG Prices - Barclays - Apr 2014

Equity Research
29 April 2014
Global Oil & Gas Weekly
Seasonal drop in LNG prices

European Integrated Oil
Over the past 12 weeks, North East Asia LNG prices have dropped 34% from
$19.7/mBtu to $14.7/mBtu currently. This should not, in our opinion, be viewed as a
sudden glut in supply in the LNG market but more a reflection of normal seasonality
prices are virtually unchanged y/y and so far during 2014 LNG prices in Asia have
averaged $17.6/ mBtu, 2% higher than at this point in 2013. Post the seasonal lull over
2Q and 3Q we would expect to see a sharp recovery in LNG prices towards the end of
the year. Demand remains robust particularly in China and Japan and supply additions,
at least short term, are limited. The rate of new LNG projects coming on stream
accelerates from 2015 onwards, particularly in Australia and the US, and this is likely to
limit upside in prices later in the decade but there also remains risk to the performance
of the existing LNG stock. We estimate that over 20% of the current LNG production
capacity is over 25 years old and as a result may become more susceptible to declines
as has been the case in 2014 with Eni and BGs Egyptian LNG assets. Of the Global
Integrateds, BG (EW, PT 1250p), Shell (OW, PT 2660p), Total (OW, PT EUR55) and
Chevron (EW, PT $130) have the most material exposure to the LNG market.
Lydia Rainforth, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 6669
lydia.rainforth@barclays.com
Barclays, London
Joshua Stone
+44 (0)20 3134 6694
joshua.stone@barclays.com
Barclays, London
Americas Integrated Oil
Paul Y. Cheng, CFA
1.212.526.1884
paul.cheng@barclays.com
BCI, New York
European Oil Services & Drilling
Mick Pickup
Demand-supply dynamics support near-term LNG prices: We see limited new LNG
supply additions in 2014 and with the 5% increase in demand we forecast, pricing is
likely to remain robust in 2014. Beyond 2016, there are several large LNG projects
scheduled to come on stream, which could put some pressure on spot prices later in
the decade. However, it should be noted that the majority of new start-ups that are
expected to come on stream typically have volumes that are committed under longterm agreements which are still linked to oil prices. Our long-run LNG price assumption
in Asia remains $14/mbtu.
Movement in Asian LNG prices
+44 (0)20 3134 6695

mick.pickup@barclays.com
Barclays, London
European Oil & Gas: E&P
Alessandro Pozzi
+44 (0)20 7773 4745
alessandro.pozzi@barclays.com
Barclays, London
CEEMEA Oil & Gas
$/mBtu
Matthew Thomas
20
+44 (0)20 7773 3640

matthew.j.thomas@barclays.com
Barclays, London
15
Caroline Learmonth
+27 11 895 6080
caroline.learmonth@absacapital.com
10
5
Jan-12
Absa Capital, Johannesburg

Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Somshankar Sinha
+91 22 6719 6031
somshankar.sinha@barclays.com
Source: Energy Intelligence, Barclays Research
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside
the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 48.
BSIPL, Mumbai
Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Barclays Research Industries included in this report
Industry
Industry view
Author(s)
Positive
Paul Cheng CFA
Asia ex-Japan Oil
Positive
Somshankar Sinha, Clement Chen
CEEMEA Oil
Neutral
Matt Thomas
Positive
Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone
European Exploration & Production
Positive
Alessandro Pozzi
Positive
Mick Pickup
European Refining & Marketing
Negative
Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone
Russian Oil Services & Drilling
Positive
Mick Pickup
US Independent Refiners
Positive
Paul Cheng, CFA
29 April 2014
CONTENTS
CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES................................ 4
Corporate Calendar
REFINING AND MARKETING MARGINS .................................. 5
2014
TANKER AND EXCHANGE RATES ............................................ 6
April
29
BP
Eni
Galp
Statoil
Q1 2014 Earnings Release

30
Aker Solutions
Shell
Subsea 7
Total

INVENTORIES ................................................................................ 7
CRACK SPREADS .......................................................................... 8
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE .................................................. 9
INTEGRATEDS ............................................................................. 10
Valuations........................................................................................................................ 11
May
Share price performance .............................................................................................. 13
01
BG Group
REFINERS ...................................................................................... 17
07
CGG
Maire Tecnimont

08
MOL
Repsol
PGS

AGM
09
PGS
SBM Offshore

13
OMV
14
Polarcus
Wood Group

Valuations........................................................................................................................ 18
SERVICES ...................................................................................... 24
Valuations........................................................................................................................ 25
E&PS............................................................................................... 32
Valuations........................................................................................................................ 33
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OILS ....................................... 41

Valuations........................................................................................................................ 42
The data source for all charts and tables is Company data, Barclays Research, unless
otherwise stated. Share prices are as of 25 April 2014 at market close, unless
otherwise stated.
29 April 2014
Crude oil and natural gas prices

Natural gas
Crude - $/bl
Henry Hub
Rockies
Russia
UK-NBP
Zee
Date
Brent
WTI
ANS
Kern River
Dubai
OPEC
WTI-Maya
Brent-Urals
$/mBtu
$/mBtu
$/kcf
p/therm
p/therm
NE Asia LNG
$/mBtu
21-Apr-14
109.6
102.3
109.3
103.7
106.0
105.2
8.2
1.6
4.76
4.60
48.88
47.86
14.70
14-Apr-14
109.1
104.0
109.5
105.6
105.6
105.4
9.3
1.2
4.62
4.49
51.71
51.34
14.80
07-Apr-14
106.6
102.7
108.3
105.1
103.7
103.5
9.2
0.8
4.60
4.47
51.60
50.59
15.50
01-Apr-14
105.3
100.5
106.6
103.3
103.2
102.7
9.8
0.7
4.42
4.42
49.38
48.81
15.70
Apr-14
107.7
102.4
108.4
104.4
104.6
104.2
9.1
1.1
4.60
4.49
50.39
49.65
15.18
Mar-14
107.3
100.5
107.5
104.0
103.9
103.9
10.2
0.9
4.48
4.91
10.94
56.93
55.85
16.75
Feb-14
108.8
100.8
106.6
106.4
104.9
105.3
9.7
1.1
5.96
7.41
11.08
58.97
57.64
19.58
Jan-14
107.4
94.9
103.9
102.8
104.3
105.1
8.2
0.6
4.67
4.70
11.15
65.22
63.61
18.86
2Q 2014
107.7
102.4
108.4
104.4
104.6
104.2
9.1
1.1
4.60
4.49
50.39
49.65
15.18
1Q 2014
107.8
98.5
105.9
104.3
104.4
104.9
9.3
0.7
5.04
5.67
11.06
60.37
59.03
18.40
18.07
4Q 2013
109.4
97.1
105.0
100.7
106.8
106.5
8.0
0.9
3.85
3.93
11.21
67.89
66.52
3Q 2013
110.0
105.6
111.0
109.8
106.0
106.7
6.5
(0.1)
3.81
3.40
11.22
65.06
64.96
15.65
2Q 2013
103.0
94.1
104.3
104.7
100.8
101.0
(3.8)
0.9
4.00
3.81
11.72
65.53
67.00
14.69
1Q 2013
112.8
94.3
110.4
113.9
108.0
109.4
(8.4)
2.1
3.50
3.50
12.30
74.27
71.44
17.95
2014
107.8
99.4
106.5
104.3
104.5
104.7
9.3
0.8
4.93
5.38
11.06
57.88
56.69
17.59
2013
108.8
97.9
107.8
107.4
105.4
105.9
0.6
0.9
3.72
3.66
11.61
68.19
67.48
16.59
2012
112.1
94.3
110.9
111.9
109.1
109.6
(5.5)
1.7
2.75
2.68
12.87
59.56
59.32
15.14
2011
111.0
95.1
109.6
112.4
106.1
107.6
(3.6)
1.7
3.94
3.79
11.80
56.84
57.56
13.77
11.13
2010
79.7
79.5
78.9
82.8
78.1
77.5
9.2
1.4
4.37
3.94
9.77
42.52
43.06
2009
62.2
62.1
61.1
64.6
62.1
61.1
5.8
0.6
3.94
3.17
8.21
30.81
31.20
8.91
2008
97.2
99.1
97.9
91.5
93.2
93.5
15.5
3.3
8.82
6.30
10.98
58.11
58.99
11.42
6.96
2007
72.7
72.3
71.7
62.3
68.4
68.8
12.5
3.2
6.94
4.10
7.92
29.85
30.38
2006
65.8
66.2
63.6
55.1
61.6
61.0
15.1
4.9
6.75
5.27
7.19
40.20
43.33
6.46
2005
55.0
56.6
53.7
45.0
49.4
50.7
11.4
4.5
8.91
7.15
5.68
38.30
40.94
5.60
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream
29 April 2014
Source: Bloomberg, Natural Gas Week, European Gas Markets
Source: WGI
Refining and marketing margins

Refining margins - $/bl
Date
US W. Coast Singapore
European marketing margins - $/bl
NW Europe
US Gulf
Med
21-Apr-14
0.78
9.15
19.15
5.26
1.80
14-Apr-14
0.92
7.18
12.66
5.27
07-Apr-14
1.40
7.01
15.62
01-Apr-14
1.62
6.13
Apr-14
1.18
Mar-14
(0.52)
Feb-14
Jan-14
US gasoline marketing margins - $/bl
Eur 6
France
Germany
Italy
UK
PADD1
PADD2
PADD3
PADD4
PADD5
12.94
12.86
1.55
15.64
10.00
16.42
21.42
7.02
11.03
12.87
9.12
24.03
(4.94)
8.63
24.00
5.73
1.66
15.82
10.87
15.44
21.98
7.82
11.10
11.94
4.20
6.65
25.72
(6.10)
7.76
5.45
1.83
14.41
9.42
15.13
20.15
6.86
13.74
16.00
8.19
29.53
10.42
7.36
13.80
5.43
1.71
15.29
10.09
15.66
21.19
7.23
12.20
13.42
8.15
25.82
0.90
6.85
4.55
5.88
(1.14)
18.41
14.92
15.43
24.59
11.25
11.87
14.23
5.43
29.14
10.62
(0.54)
5.85
10.05
5.58
(0.11)
16.25
11.98
14.87
22.32
9.14
10.44
8.47
3.07
22.66
(3.56)
(0.82)
9.28
5.09
5.81
(0.74)
18.16
13.43
15.31
25.48
12.03
13.92
7.51
4.90
22.45
7.23
2Q 2014
1.18
7.36
13.80
5.43
1.71
15.29
10.09
15.66
21.19
7.23
12.20
13.42
8.15
25.82
0.90
1Q 2014
(0.64)
7.48
6.45
5.76
(0.67)
17.61
13.44
15.20
24.13
10.81
12.07
10.07
4.47
24.75
4.76
4Q 2013
(1.45)
6.06
6.08
3.19
(1.20)
18.27
11.46
20.10
24.21
10.23
15.08
8.87
7.08
29.49
5.36
3Q 2013
0.13
3.75
9.37
4.84
-0.68
17.65
10.92
19.37
23.53
9.56
11.71
8.91
7.06
34.63
2.68
2Q 2013
1.28
11.27
13.63
7.35
1.60
18.52
14.14
20.76
22.46
11.98
12.41
20.09
9.87
37.73
4.29
1Q 2013
1.04
18.89
14.09
8.89
2.33
16.83
14.98
15.67
23.80
6.88
12.11
8.83
6.39
17.70
(2.76)
2014
(0.21)
7.45
8.18
5.68
(0.11)
17.14
12.77
15.30
23.54
10.09
12.21
10.71
5.36
24.87
4.00
2013
0.28
9.95
10.86
6.10
0.52
17.80
12.80
18.99
23.48
9.64
12.83
11.57
7.60
29.82
2.29
2012
2.61
18.66
11.31
8.45
3.59
16.69
11.16
18.58
23.46
9.56
12.52
11.46
7.72
28.38
6.87
2011
0.22
15.02
6.91
8.49
1.33
17.74
14.18
14.27
27.47
9.01
11.65
11.46
8.57
17.26
7.08
2010
1.42
1.29
8.37
4.66
2.46
13.81
10.34
11.36
22.55
6.20
9.07
9.42
7.62
14.49
6.14
2009
1.53
1.68
10.34
3.15
2.95
8.03
7.68
9.22
11.91
3.32
8.26
7.55
6.85
9.02
1.41
2008
3.94
1.42
9.51
8.43
6.54
12.54
11.71
9.76
19.83
8.85
13.30
10.86
11.52
13.87
7.58
2007
2.63
5.72
17.56
6.65
6.08
9.32
7.87
8.10
14.90
6.39
10.56
11.35
8.99
13.02
2.39
2006
1.26
3.53
16.94
5.00
6.05
7.60
5.61
5.80
13.61
5.36
12.52
8.64
10.27
11.49
2.60
2005
2.90
4.62
14.16
6.39
6.40
6.55
4.32
3.01
10.87
4.17
9.08
7.16
8.16
8.73
2.64
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
29 April 2014
Source: European Energy Commission, Barclays Research
Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
Tanker and exchange rates

Tanker rates - $/ship/day
Date
Exchange rates
Suezmax
Aframax
Clean
Dirty
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
GBP/EUR
USD/NOK
USD/CAD
USD/AUS
21-Apr-14
11,033
15,081
12,895
8,137
1.38
1.68
1.22
6.00
1.10
1.08
14-Apr-14
13,613
17,733
12,619
8,595
1.38
1.68
1.21
5.98
1.10
1.07
07-Apr-14
10,246
18,001
13,594
10,258
1.38
1.67
1.21
5.95
1.09
1.07
01-Apr-14
12,111
14,742
13,579
10,169
1.37
1.66
1.21
5.99
1.10
1.08
1.07
Apr-14
11,751
16,389
13,172
9,290
1.38
1.67
1.21
5.98
1.10
Mar-14
14,344
14,794
14,531
10,110
1.38
1.66
1.20
6.00
1.11
1.10
Feb-14
14,463
15,392
21,143
10,273
1.37
1.66
1.21
6.11
1.11
1.11
Jan-14
57,662
51,898
33,829
10,574
1.36
1.65
1.21
6.15
1.09
1.13
2Q 2014
11,751
16,389
13,172
9,290
1.38
1.67
1.21
5.98
1.10
1.07
1Q 2014
28,823
27,361
23,167
10,319
1.37
1.66
1.21
6.09
1.10
1.11
4Q 2013
23,777
18,715
9,576
10,664
1.36
1.62
1.19
6.06
1.05
1.08
3Q 2013
11,704
13,010
12,432
11,439
1.32
1.54
1.17
5.96
1.04
1.09
2Q 2013
12,134
11,765
11,833
12,983
1.31
1.53
1.18
5.84
1.02
1.01
1Q 2013
15,176
14,118
14,293
21,518
1.32
1.55
1.18
5.63
1.00
0.96
2014
20,287
21,875
18,170
9,804
1.38
1.66
1.21
6.03
1.10
1.09
2013
15,698
14,402
12,033
14,151
1.33
1.56
1.18
5.87
1.03
1.03
2012
17,738
14,881
14,769
13,162
1.29
1.59
1.23
5.82
1.00
0.97
2011
19,239
13,528
10,535
12,644
1.39
1.60
1.15
5.61
0.99
0.97
2010
31,259
19,745
14,956
11,292
1.33
1.55
1.17
6.05
1.03
1.09
2009
28,205
15,969
12,738
8,869
1.39
1.57
1.12
6.29
1.14
1.28
2008
78,573
50,923
37,239
25,508
1.47
1.85
1.26
5.65
1.07
1.20
2007
44,781
35,865
30,533
26,018
1.37
2.00
1.46
5.86
1.07
1.19
2006
52,931
39,338
30,758
27,227
1.26
1.84
1.47
6.41
1.13
1.33
2005
53,579
41,650
37,639
31,145
1.24
1.82
1.46
6.44
1.21
1.31
Source: Clarksons Shipping Weekly
29 April 2014
Source: Datastream
Inventories
US crude oil inventories, m bl
US gasoline inventories, m bl
US distillate inventories, m bl
440
250
180
400
160
230
360
140
210
320
120
190
280
100
170
240
80
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
7 Year Range
2013
2014
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
7 Year Range
2013
2014
US Refinery Utilisation, %
US total inventories, m bl
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
7 Year Range
2013
2014
Natural Gas Storage, bcf
105
3,750
1,200
95
1,100
2,750
85
1,000
1,750
75
900
65
Oct-01
800
1 4
Week
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7 Year Range
2013
750
Oct-03
Oct-05
Oct-07
Refinery utilisation
Oct-09
Oct-11
Oct-13
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
7 Year Range
2013
2014
Rolling 12 month average
2014
Non-commercial Paper Positions, m bl
Futures Curve - Brent, $/bl
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Dec-14
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
2013
2014
Baker Hughes US Rotary Rig Count

2,000
1,600
1,200
800
400
Dec-15
Dec-16
Brent
Dec-17
Dec-18
0
Mar-04
Mar-06
WTI
Mar-08
Gas rigs
Mar-10
Mar-12
Mar-14
Oil rigs
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research
29 April 2014
Crack spreads
European Gasoline Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
European Diesel Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
30
20
European Naptha Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
40
20
30
10
20
10
-10
-20
10
0
-10
-30
-10
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
10 Year Range
2013
2014
European Kerosene Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
10 Year Range
2013
2014
European LSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
50
40
30
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
10 Year Range
2013
2014
European HSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
20
-30
10
0
-40
-10
-50
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
10 Year Range
2013
2014
-40
-50
-60
Brent-WTI Spread, $/bl
Brent-Urals Crude Spread, $/bl

9
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
10 Year Range
2013
2014
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
10 Year Range
2013
2014
Brent Spot Price $/bl
30
150
20
120
10
90
60
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
-10
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
30
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commitments of Traders report - US CFTC, American Petroleum Institute (API), Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays Research
29 April 2014
Share price performance

European Integrateds vs European Market
European Services vs European Market
European Refiners vs European Market
105
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Apr-13
105
100
95
90
85
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
100
95
90
85
80
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
75
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
European E&P vs European Market
European Integrateds vs European Services
European Integrateds vs European Refiners
105
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Apr-13
130
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Apr-14
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
European Integrateds vs European E&P
European Services vs European Refiners
European Services vs European E&P
120
110
110
115
100
105
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
100
110
90
105
95
80
90
70
85
100
95
90
60
85
Apr-13
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
80
75
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies
under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the FTSE 300 Integrated Sector (Euro) for the European companies and the S&P500 Integrated Sector (US) for the US companies.
29 April 2014
Integrateds
29 April 2014
10
Integrateds
Valuations
Price
Company
Rating
25-Apr
Target Up/(Down)
Price
EV:EBIDA, x
P/E, x
side, %
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
FCF yield, %
15F
13F
14F
Dividend yield, %
15F
13F
14F
15F
RoACE, %
13F
14F
15F
Barclays
2013
Cons
2014
Change in
EPS
EPS
last mnth
cons in
Majors
BP
U/W
494
550
11
6.1
5.5
5.5
10.7
9.8
10.2
2.0
2.5
4.1
4.9
5.2
5.4
9.0
8.5
8.5
46.2
47.7
-2
Chevron*
E/W
124
130
7.4
7.4
6.7
12.7
13.3
11.8
(0.5)
(0.5)
1.4
3.5
3.8
4.1
11.8
10.7
10.7
9.8
10.9
-2
ExxonMobil*
E/W
100.4
95.0
(5)
10.2
10.7
10.3
14.8
16.2
15.8
2.9
2.8
3.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
15.2
12.3
12.3
6.8
7.5
Royal Dutch Shell A
O/W
2249
2660
18
6.4
6.3
6.4
10.8
10.3
10.3
2.2
2.7
2.6
5.1
5.4
5.7
10.1
9.5
9.5
3.5
3.5
Royal Dutch Shell B
O/W
2402
2660
11
6.8
6.7
6.7
11.6
11.0
11.0
2.0
2.5
2.4
4.8
5.1
5.3
10.1
9.5
9.5
3.5
3.4
Total
O/W
49.6
55.0
11
6.1
5.8
5.5
11.1
10.5
10.6
1.2
2.6
3.7
4.9
5.0
5.1
11.0
10.1
10.1
6.0
6.3
-1
7.2
7.1
6.9
11.9
11.9
11.6
1.7
2.1
2.9
4.3
4.6
4.8
11.2
10.1
10.1
Arithmetic average
-1
Integrated - Europe
BG Group
E/W
1145
1250
10.6
9.0
7.6
17.9
14.4
11.3
(6.4)
(1.6)
1.9
1.7
1.9
2.1
7.8
9.8
9.8
64.0
69.0
Eni
E/W
18.4
20.5
11
6.1
5.6
5.5
13.6
11.5
10.7
(1.4)
2.0
2.1
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.5
7.6
7.6
1.4
1.3
-3
Galp
O/W
12.7
17.0
34
15.0
12.7
10.5
37.4
26.7
22.5
(4.3)
(2.2)
(1.7)
2.7
3.3
3.9
4.8
7.3
7.3
0.3
0.4
-1
MOL
U/W
13195
14500
10
5.6
4.7
4.4
11.5
8.4
8.5
7.3
8.0
5.4
2.6
3.6
3.5
5.8
6.7
6.7
1145
1525
-2
OMV
U/W
32.0
38.0
19
4.4
4.3
4.0
8.5
8.7
8.3
(2.7)
0.2
6.0
4.1
4.2
4.4
9.5
7.6
7.6
3.7
3.9
-1
Repsol
E/W
18.9
23.0
22
6.8
5.9
5.2
16.1
13.8
11.7
7.0
9.7
14.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.6
7.6
7.6
1.2
1.4
-1
Statoil
O/W
173.3
195.0
14.5
14.9
Arithmetic average
13
4.7
4.5
4.3
12.0
11.6
11.4
1.1
2.3
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.5
10.8
9.8
9.8
17
7.6
6.7
5.9
16.7
13.6
12.1
0.1
2.6
4.7
3.8
4.1
4.3
7.1
8.0
8.0
-1
-1
Integrated - US*
ConocoPhillips
O/W
74.4
83.0
12
7.3
7.1
6.5
13.5
12.8
10.5
(1.7)
(1.9)
0.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
10.5
11.1
11.1
5.5
6.1
-1
Hess
O/W
87.4
90.0
7.7
7.0
6.5
22.7
19.2
17.3
(0.8)
0.9
2.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
5.2
5.8
5.8
3.9
4.6
Murphy
E/W
63.7
65.0
5.2
4.9
5.3
13.1
12.9
15.4
(5)
(1.6)
(2.0)
2.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
6.1
6.1
4.9
5.5
6.5
6.2
6.0
16.2
14.9
13.9
(2.0)
(0.5)
0.4
2.2
2.2
2.2
7.7
7.7
7.7
Arithmetic average
0
0
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research.

* Chevron, Exxon Mobil and the US Integrateds are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York. The forecasts for these companies are based on assumptions which are aligned but may sometimes differ from those
used for the European companies.
The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on return on market capitalisation under mid-cycle assumptions.
29 April 2014
11
Valuations
Integrateds
P/E, x
2014 Average
P/E
RoACE, %
10
5
RoACE, %
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
Cons vs BC EPS (%)
2014 Average
2014 Average
2013
2014
EV/b, $
25
20
15
10
5
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
0
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
COP
HES
MUR
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
Dollar EPS change y/y, %
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS, %
COP
HES
MUR
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
2014 Average
EPS Growth
2014 Average
COP
HES
MUR
FCF Yield, %
COP
HES
MUR
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
0
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
-5
COP
HES
MUR
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
COP
HES
MUR
Gearing - Net Debt to Equity, %
20
2014 Average
EV: 2P reserves
COP
HES
MUR
10
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
Dividend Yield, %
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
Free cash flow yield, %
2014 Average
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
EV/EBIDA
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
10
COP
HES
MUR
20
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
30
10
COP
HES
MUR
15
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
40
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
20
Dividend yield, %
BG
ENI
Galp
MOL
OMV
REP
STL
EV:EBIDA, x
2014 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates
29 April 2014
12
Integrateds

Change in USD share price over last week, %
Change in USD share price over last month, %
BP
MOL
OMV
BG
TOT
REP
GALP
RDSA
CVX
COP
XOM
STL
ENI
Change in USD share price over last three months, %

STL
TOT
COP
GALP
ENI
CVX
REP
RDSA
XOM
BP
OMV
MOL
BG
MOL
COP
XOM
CVX
BG
BP
TOT
REP
RDSA
STL
ENI
GALP
OMV
-3
-2
-1
Change in USD share price over last year, %

TOT
COP
STL
REP
BP
BG
XOM
RDSA
GALP
ENI
CVX
OMV
MOL
10
12
14
30
40
50
BP vs European Integrateds
105
500
480
460
100
440
95
420
Jul-13
Oct-13
BP vs Sector
Jan-14
BP, p
400
Apr-14
90
85
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
95
90
Jul-13
Oct-13
CVX vs Sector
Apr-14
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
ConocoPhillips vs US Integrateds
100
85
Apr-13
20
95
520 105
105
90
Apr-13
80
Apr-13
15
100
Chevron vs US Integrateds
110
10
110
85
20
110
90
10
115
95
-5
European Integrateds vs US Integrateds
100
-10
-10
European Integrateds vs Brent
105
-20
-15
Jan-14
CVX, $
130 130
125 125
120
120 115
115 110
110 105
100
105 95
100 90
Apr-14
Apr-13
80
75
70
65
60
55
Jul-13
Oct-13
COP vs Sector
Jan-14
50
Apr-14
COP, $
29 April 2014
13

Exxon Mobil vs US Integrateds
Integrateds
Royal Dutch Shell A vs Royal Dutch Shell B
Royal Dutch Shell A vs European Integrateds
110
105
101
103
106
100
100
100
102
95
99
97
98
94
98
90
97
91
94
85
96
88
90
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
XOM vs Sector
Jan-14
80
Apr-14
XOM, $
Jul-13
Oct-13
TOT vs Sector
Jan-14
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
Apr-14
110
105
100
95
90
85
Jul-13
Oct-13
GALP vs Sector
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
GALP, E
Oct-13
RDSA vs Sector
Jan-14
2000
Apr-14
RDSA, p
1400
105
20
120
1300
100
19
1200
95
1100
90
1000
85
110
18
17
100
90
80
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
BG vs Sector
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
Apr-14
Jul-13
Eni vs European Integrateds
Jan-14
900
Apr-14
110
105
100
95
Jul-13
Oct-13
REP vs Sector
16
15
Jul-13
Oct-13
ENI vs Sector
Jan-14
14
Apr-14
ENI, E
Statoil vs European Integrateds
115
90
Apr-13
80
Apr-13
BG, p
Repsol vs European Integrateds
115
80
Apr-13
85
Apr-13
130
TOT, E
Galp vs European Integrateds
2500
2250
BG Group vs European Integrateds
Total vs European Integrateds

125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Apr-13
2750
95
94
Apr-13
3000
Jan-14
REP, E
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
Apr-14
115
180
110
170
105
160
100
150
95
140
90
130
85
120
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
STL vs Sector
Jan-14
110
Apr-14
STL, NOK
29 April 2014
14
Integrateds
BP vs Total
BP vs Shell
Total vs Eni
110
115
130
105
110
100
105
95
90
85
100
110
95
100
90
80
90
85
75
70
Apr-13
120
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
80
Apr-13
Total vs Shell
BG vs Statoil
Eni vs Repsol
130
130
110
120
120
110
110
100
90
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
100
100
90
90
80
70
70
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
OMV vs Repsol
BG vs Eni
Eni vs Statoil
110
150
120
100
130
110
90
110
100
80
90
90
70
70
80
60
Apr-13
Oct-13
80
80
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research
29 April 2014
15
Integrateds
Local Price
25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
Hang Seng
-1d
-5d
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
22224
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
-1.5
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-2.4
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
-3.4
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
3.3
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.4
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.4
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-4.6
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
-5.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
2.0
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
9.9
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
-6.6
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
-1.7
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
13.2
Integrated - Majors
BP
Chevron
ExxonMobil
Royal Dutch Shell A
Royal Dutch Shell B
Total
Arithmetic Average
494
124
100.4
27.3
2402
49.6
0.9
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.5
0.0
2.4
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.7
4.4
5.9
3.8
2.9
2.7
3.6
3.9
4.6
8.7
7.4
5.8
5.9
7.2
6.6
3.7
4.3
2.8
3.3
3.5
4.7
3.7
3.7
4.3
2.8
3.3
3.5
4.7
3.7
2.6
-0.7
-0.8
5.8
6.9
11.9
4.3
-1.0
-4.8
-3.5
2.4
3.3
6.9
0.6
15.4
3.0
17.7
9.0
10.1
5.1
10.0
0.6
2.0
-4.7
3.1
3.9
18.8
3.9
-1.4
-1.1
-0.5
-1.4
-0.8
1.6
-0.6
1.1
9.9
4.1
-5.5
-6.2
-6.7
-0.6
39.3
60.3
52.9
39.2
50.5
15.1
42.9
Integrated - Europe
BG Group
Eni
Galp
OMV
Repsol
Statoil
Arithmetic Average
1145
18.4
12.7
32.0
18.9
173
-0.4
-1.6
0.2
-1.4
-0.3
0.8
-0.4
1.0
-2.1
0.7
0.9
0.7
-0.9
0.0
3.4
1.2
1.9
0.9
1.7
3.6
2.1
8.1
6.9
7.4
1.4
8.1
4.1
6.0
3.3
1.6
1.5
-2.4
2.5
2.3
1.5
3.3
1.6
1.5
-2.4
2.5
2.3
1.5
-10.4
5.8
6.8
-7.6
3.7
19.2
2.9
-13.3
4.1
5.2
-5.3
1.1
16.5
1.4
12.8
3.1
-3.0
-2.6
3.1
7.5
3.5
11.1
10.2
9.9
4.4
18.1
8.7
10.4
-1.4
-8.9
-5.8
5.8
3.5
-15.5
-3.7
4.2
-6.9
1.2
18.1
0.7
-3.1
2.4
8.7
32.0
2.1
20.3
5.7
32.9
16.9
Integrated - US
ConocoPhillips
Cenovus Energy
Hess
Husky Energy
Imperial Oil
Murphy
Suncor
Arithmetic Average
74.4
32.5
87.4
35.4
53.0
63.7
41.0
-0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-0.9
-0.3
-1.6
0.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.6
0.2
-2.8
1.5
-0.3
0.8
-0.1
5.0
1.2
4.6
0.2
1.8
6.9
3.1
3.3
11.7
12.0
8.9
8.8
4.3
5.8
13.6
9.3
5.8
1.8
5.5
6.9
3.0
1.4
6.2
4.4
5.8
1.8
5.5
6.9
3.0
1.4
6.2
4.4
5.3
3.1
5.3
1.3
8.5
-1.8
6.0
3.9
-0.4
1.2
-0.1
-5.3
5.4
-3.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.9
-4.1
5.5
10.5
1.4
6.6
-2.6
2.6
13.5
4.7
15.9
8.0
15.1
14.2
21.4
13.3
0.0
-8.8
-9.6
-7.2
-6.6
-3.8
-3.1
-5.6
3.6
-7.4
35.2
-2.8
-4.8
7.0
-8.8
3.2
55.7
29.8
6.0
24.5
17.7
21.7
11.6
23.8
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for
companies under coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted
average for our coverage.
29 April 2014
16
Refiners
29 April 2014
17
Refiners
Valuations
Company
Rating
Price
Target
Up/(Down)
25-Apr
Price
side, %
EV:EBIDA, x
P/E, x
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
FCF yield, %
Dividend yield, %
RoACE, %
Barclays
2014
Cons
2014
Change in
cons in
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
EPS
EPS
last mnth
-15
Refiners - Europe
Hellenic
E/W
6.28
9.00
43
6.4
5.8
5.5
7.6
7.0
7.0
15.2
16.5
16.5
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.9
7.9
0.82
0.34
Grupa Lotos
E/W
39.1
34.0
(13)
8.8
9.0
8.9
11.5
12.8
13.0
5.5
4.6
4.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.38
4.35
Motor Oil
O/W
8.85
9.50
6.9
6.7
6.3
8.7
9.3
9.3
16.6
15.8
15.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
10.9
11.1
11.1
1.02
0.85
-13
Neste Oil
U/W
14.78
15.0
7.7
6.5
6.1
14.5
12.2
12.0
7.1
9.9
9.9
4.5
4.6
4.7
6.8
6.8
6.8
1.02
1.22
-2
PKN Orlen
U/W
45.1
40.0
(11)
5.5
4.5
3.7
12.6
9.8
8.6
9.4
12.4
23.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.9
7.1
7.1
3.57
2.80
-8
Saras
U/W
1.25
1.00
(20)
5.3
4.9
4.3
50
52
41.3
10.1
10.0
10.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
3.6
3.6
0.03
-0.02
-13
Tupras
U/W
47.7
42.8
(10)
8.5
8.0
7.9
9.5
6.9
8.5
8.8
16.9
14.0
6.01
4.57
8.1
6.7
6.1
14.7
14.5
13.5
6.3
11.7
14.1
3.5
3.7
3.0
7.5
7.6
6.7
Arithmetic average
-2
-9
Refiners - US*
Alon USA Energy
U/W
16.4
14.0
(15)
7.1
9.9
6.7
13.1
27.4
13.1
8.6
5.4
10.3
1.8
2.8
3.0
9.3
9.0
9.0
1.25
0.86
14
Delek US Holdings
O/W
31.2
35.0
12
7.3
8.0
5.8
13.6
15.2
9.6
2.9
0.2
9.0
2.4
3.0
3.7
14.2
17.2
17.2
2.30
2.38
-4
Tesoro
O/W
55.0
100
82
5.6
5.2
4.8
9.5
8.0
6.9
4.6
3.3
3.3
2.4
3.1
3.8
16.5
17.4
17.4
5.80
5.30
-9
Valero
O/W
56.7
70.0
24
6.0
6.1
6.0
8.9
9.9
9.9
7.5
6.5
6.6
1.8
2.1
2.5
14.9
12.0
12.0
6.35
6.07
26
6.5
7.3
5.8
11.3
15.1
9.9
5.9
3.8
7.3
2.1
2.8
3.3
13.7
13.9
13.9
Arithmetic average
3
1
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research. *The US Refiners are covered by Barclays Integrated oil research team, headed by Paul Cheng, in New York.
The price targets for the European companies are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology. For the US they are based on an assumed discount to the estimated greenfield replacement value.
29 April 2014
18
Valuations
Refiners
P/E, x
Dividend yield, %
10
20
10
15
8
6
10
2014 Average
-50
RoACE, %
2014 Average
2014 Average
VLO
TSO
DK
ALJ
TUP
SRS
PKN
VLO
TSO
DK
ALJ
TUP
SRS
PKN
EV/Capital Employed
VLO
TSO
DK
ALJ
TUP
SRS
PKN
VLO
TSO
DK
ALJ
TUP
SRS
PKN
NEST
0.0
MOH
-100%
LOT
-20
HEP
0.5
VLO
-50%
TSO
30
DK
1.0
ALJ
0%
TUP
80
SRS
1.5
PKN
50%
NEST
130
MOH
2.0
LOT
100%
HEP
2014
EV: Capital employed, x
NEST
EPS Growth
NEST
2013
180
2014 Average
MOH
HEP
VLO
TSO
DK
ALJ
SRS
TUP
PKN
NEST
MOH
LOT
50
2014 Average
Cons vs BC EPS (%)
NEST
100
HEP
VLO
0
TSO
-20
DK
5
ALJ
-10
TUP
10
SRS
PKN
150
NEST
15
MOH
10
LOT
200
HEP
20
2014 Average
20
FCF Yield, %
MOH
Dividend Yield, %
RoACE, %
HEP
VLO
TSO
DK
ALJ
SRS
P/E
TUP
PKN
NEST
MOH
LOT
HEP
VLO
TSO
DK
2014 Average
MOH
EV/EBIDA
ALJ
SRS
TUP
MOH
PKN
NEST
0
LOT
0
HEP
LOT
LOT
LOT
HEP
EV:EBIDA, x
2014 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays estimates
29 April 2014
19
Refiners

PKN
TUPRS
LTS
NES1V
Sector
MOH
ESSR
Brent
ORL
SRS
ELPE
TUPRS
PKN
ORL
LTS
Brent
Sector
NES1V
ESSR
SRS
MOH
ELPE
-6
-4
-2

NES1V
SRS
MOH
Brent
LTS
Sector
PKN
TUPRS
ELPE
ORL
ESSR
-60
-40
-20
20
40
Essar vs European Refiners

170
100
150
90
130
80
110
70
90
60
70
50
Jul-13
Oct-13
ESSAR vs Sector
-15
-10
-5
10
Jan-14
ESSR, p
50
Apr-14
-20
15
-10
10
20
European Refiners vs Brent
European Refiners vs US Refiners
110
140
105
130
100
120
95
110
90
100
85
90
80
80
75
70
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Hellenic Petroleum vs European Refiners
110
40
Apr-13
SRS
TUPRS
PKN
Sector
LTS
NES1V
ESSR
MOH
Brent
ORL
ELPE
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
ELPE vs Sector
Jan-14
ELPE, E
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
30
Oct-13
40
Jan-14
50
60
Apr-14
Lotos Group vs European Refiners

10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Apr-14
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Apr-13
45
40
35
30
25
Jul-13
Oct-13
LTS vs Sector
Jan-14
20
Apr-14
LTS, PLN
29 April 2014
20

Motor Oil vs European Refiners
Neste Oil vs European Refiners
150
130
110
90
70
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
MOH vs Sector
Jan-14
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Apr-14
55
100
90
45
80
35
70
PKN vs Sector
20
Jan-14
PKN, PLN
25
Apr-14
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Apr-13
110
180
100
16
12
8
160
90
80
140
70
120
60
100
50
Jul-13
Oct-13
NES1V vs Sector
65
110
Oct-13
ORL vs European Refiners
Jan-14
4
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
SRS vs Sector
40
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
ORL vs Sector
NES1V, E
Saras vs European Refiners
120
Jul-13
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Apr-13
MOH, E
PKN Orlen vs European Refiners
60
Apr-13
Refiners
Jan-14
80
Apr-14
ORL, ILS
Tupras vs European Refiners
Jan-14
SRS, E
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Apr-14
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Tupras vs Sector
Jan-14
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Apr-14
TUPRS, TRY
29 April 2014
21
Refiners
PKN Orlen vs Lotos Group
Saras vs Motor Oil
Saras vs Neste
110
140
130
100
120
90
100
80
80
70
60
60
Apr-13
40
Apr-13
120
110
100
90
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
80
70
60
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Neste vs Tupras
Tupras vs Saras
Hellenic vs Motor Oil
180
140
160
160
120
140
100
120
80
100
60
80
140
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
120
100
80
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
40
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Essar vs Neste
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
Apr-13
Jul-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays.
29 April 2014
22
Refiners
Local Price
25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
Refiners - Europe
Hellenic
Grupa Lotos
MOL
Motor Oil
Neste Oil
ORL
PKN Orlen
Saras
Tupras
Arithmetic Average
Refiners - US
Alon
Delek
HollyFrontier
Marathon Petroleum
SunCoke Energy
Tesoro
Valero
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
6.28
39.1
13195
8.85
14.78
0.98
45.1
1.25
47.7
-3.0
2.0
1.8
0.7
-5.0
-0.5
-1.3
-0.6
1.1
-0.5
-4.8
0.3
1.7
-0.2
0.1
-1.3
3.0
-2.2
2.0
-0.2
-5.5
-0.7
-1.3
-1.5
-1.2
-2.9
0.3
-2.6
1.5
-1.5
-17.7
6.1
6.8
-10.4
-0.5
2.2
11.2
13.0
17.7
3.2
-13.3
2.1
4.7
-6.5
0.3
1.9
3.6
-0.9
5.5
-0.3
-13.3
2.1
4.7
-6.5
0.3
1.9
3.6
-0.9
5.5
-0.3
-16.8
9.2
-12.3
8.1
3.3
-12.5
9.1
51.2
11.9
5.7
-4.1
7.0
-16.2
15.6
3.0
-11.6
5.3
52.6
6.1
6.4
0.6
-1.1
-8.1
9.2
-10.4
-8.1
-5.8
-7.7
-7.2
-4.3
14.1
6.6
-2.7
10.2
48.7
-14.1
-1.5
-1.7
-12.7
5.2
-5.0
-14.3
5.9
-2.4
3.4
-15.6
-11.5
6.4
-19.8
-5.9
-1.4
-5.5
-12.4
-11.1
9.7
-2.0
-1.2
-6.8
5.3
-2.8
32.8
57.2
-4.5
25.2
-11.0
26.2
50.4
-37.0
56.3
21.7
16.4
31.2
51.9
90.7
20.7
55.0
56.7
-0.4
0.0
0.8
0.0
-4.5
1.5
0.2
-0.3
4.3
-0.1
2.1
0.9
-5.3
4.0
1.2
1.0
16.8
11.2
12.3
8.9
-4.6
15.9
11.2
10.2
3.0
1.3
4.3
-3.5
-4.6
3.4
4.5
1.2
9.9
7.5
9.0
4.2
-9.2
8.7
6.7
5.3
9.9
7.5
9.0
4.2
-9.2
8.7
6.7
5.3
-0.7
-9.3
4.4
-1.1
-9.1
-6.0
12.4
-1.3
-9.7
-15.6
-4.2
-5.1
0.1
-13.5
5.4
-6.1
62.3
61.9
18.8
42.7
32.9
35.7
48.9
43.3
-27.4
-24.8
3.4
-8.6
21.1
-15.3
-0.3
-7.4
-23.0
-27.1
-16.7
-20.9
-12.0
-8.0
-15.4
-17.6
5.3
55.8
10.5
42.2
4.7
32.9
33.3
26.4
200.0
245.4
262.0
NA
NA
298.3
97.7
220.7
29 April 2014
23
Services
29 April 2014
24
Services
Valuations
Price
Target
Up/(Down)
Rating
25-Apr
Price
side, %
Aker Solutions
CGG Veritas
Hunting
Maire Tecnimont
Petrofac
PGS
U/W
U/W
O/W
O/W
U/W
O/W
100
12.3
869
2.63
1443
71.5
106
13.6
1050
3.25
1655
93.0
Polarcus
Saipem
SBM Offshore
Subsea 7
Technip
E/W
E/W
O/W
O/W
O/W
4.31
19.5
13.0
113
82.3
Tecnicas Reunidas
TGS
Wood Group
Arithmetic average
E/W
U/W
O/W
42.6
200
792
Company
EV:EBIDA, x
P/E, x
FCF yield, %
Dividend yield, %
RoACE, %
Barclays
2014
Cons
2014
Change in
cons in
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
EPS
EPS
last mnth
6
10
21
24
15
30
9.7
(11.5)
11.7
21.5
11.4
7.7
8.1
21.4
10.7
11.6
10.3
7.6
7.8
13.8
9.1
8.8
8.4
6.3
21.1
(4.1)
14.5
48.1
11.8
10.2
13.4
17.6
14.0
14.4
12.2
7.3
10.9
9.7
12.3
11.0
10.2
7.1
(6.7)
(52)
11.9
(24)
(8.5)
(5.0)
8.2
(28)
9.3
(0.3)
3.6
(2.5)
8.7
(13)
18.5
8.4
2.0
(1.6)
4.0
0.0
3.4
0.0
3.0
1.2
3.7
0.0
3.5
0.0
3.1
4.6
4.1
0.0
3.9
0.0
3.7
5.5
8.7
(8.0)
8.3
5.6
26.1
9.3
11.3
4.1
9.2
13.1
21.0
8.3
13.9
5.8
10.1
13.1
21.9
10.1
7.45
0.70
100.70
0.18
1.99
1.16
7.68
0.61
97.82
0.15
1.98
1.27
-2
-15
60
-1
0
-4
6.4
20.0
18.4
175
100
48
3
41
55
22
5.0
23.3
nm
9.0
9.1
4.8
10.9
7.0
6.4
9.4
4.1
7.4
7.5
5.9
6.8
9.3
nm
30.1
18.9
17.5
5.1
24.8
8.2
10.3
17.4
3.8
11.8
5.3
8.8
12.4
1.0
(5.6)
(30)
4.5
7.8
2.4
6.5
(20)
2.3
5.9
6.8
12.8
(21)
2.6
10.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.3
2.2
0.0
1.3
0.0
3.2
2.7
0.0
2.8
0.0
3.6
3.0
0.5
(1.1)
4.6
5.2
9.8
0.5
4.7
10.5
9.1
9.3
0.4
8.3
12.3
9.9
12.7
0.14
0.79
1.60
1.83
4.72
0.11
0.81
1.69
1.89
4.82
-11
1
-4
0
-2
49
185
1025
15
-7
30
22
13.8
5.2
12.1
9.9
11.0
4.5
11.1
9.6
7.8
4.3
9.4
7.7
16.6
12.8
12.2
16.9
14.1
12.4
12.1
13.1
12.4
11.9
10.8
9.9
6.4
2.3
4.9
(6.7)
9.2
6.1
7.4
0.8
9.3
5.9
7.7
4.1
3.3
4.3
1.5
1.9
3.9
4.7
1.5
2.3
4.4
4.2
1.7
2.6
26.3
22.2
14.3
9.4
27.6
20.2
13.9
11.6
27.0
19.2
15.0
12.8
3.03
2.70
0.65
2.65
2.59
0.63
-1
1
0
2
Services - Europe
Source: Company data, Data stream , Ba rclays Research - Price targets a re ba se d on a sum-of- the-pa rts based DC F methodology.
29 April 2014
25
Valuations
Services
P/E, x
Dividend yield, %
5
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3
2
1
P/E
2014 Average
2014 Average
RoACE, %

300%
16
10
200%
11
100%
-10
0%
2014 Average
WG
TRS
TGS
TEC
SUB
SBM
PGS
SPM
PLCS
MT
PFC
WG
TGS
TRS
TEC
SUB
SBM
SPM
PGS
PFC
PLCS
MT
HTG
EV/Capital Employed
WG
TGS
TRS
TEC
SUB
SBM
PGS
SPM
PLCS
PFC
MT
WG
TGS
TRS
TEC
SUB
SPM
SBM
PGS
PFC
EPS Growth
PLCS
MT
HTG
CGG
WG
-4
-100%
AKSO
2014 Average
TGS
TRS
TEC
SUB
SBM
SPM
PGS
PLCS
PFC
MT
HTG
CGG
AKSO
Cons vs BC EPS (%)
2014
EV:Capital Employed, x
20
-20
CGG
AKSO
WG
TRS
TEC
SUB
TGS
2013
2014 Average
HTG
SBM
PGS
SPM
PLCS
MT
WG
TGS
TRS
TEC
SUB
SBM
SPM
PGS
PLCS
PFC
MT
HTG
CGG
AKSO
FCF Yield, %
PFC
-5
-10
HTG
CGG
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
AKSO
10
2014 Average
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
15
HTG
Dividend Yield, %
2014 Average
RoACE, %
CGG
AKSO
WG
TRS
TGS
TEC
SUB
SBM
PGS
SPM
PLCS
MT
PFC
HTG
CGG
0
AKSO
WG
TGS
TRS
TEC
SUB
CGG
EV/EBIDA
SBM
PGS
SPM
PLCS
MT
PFC
HTG
CGG
AKSO
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
AKSO
EV:EBIDA, x
2014 Average
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research estimates
29 April 2014
26
Services


MT
TEC
PFC
AMC
WG
SPM
Sector
HTG
TRE
PGS
CGG
AKSO
Brent
SUB
SBMO
SPM
AMC
TEC
MT
CGG
Sector
SBMO
TRE
AKSO
SUB
HTG
WG
PGS
Brent
PFC
MT
TEC
CGG
SUB
AKSO
Sector
WG
SPM
AMC
TRE
PGS
HTG
PFC
SBMO
Brent
-2
10
12

MT
AMC
TRE
HTG
PFC
SBMO
Brent
WG
TEC
Sector
SPM
AKSO
SUB
PGS
CGG
10
15
50
100
150
200
250
Aker Solutions vs European Services

110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
Apr-13
110
140
100
130
100
70
90
Jul-13
Oct-13
AKSO vs Sector
Jan-14
AKSO, NOK
1300
1100
900
80
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
32
125
28
115
24
105
20
95
16
85
12
75
Jul-13
Oct-13
CGG vs Sector
Jul-13
Oct-13
AMEC vs Sector
Jan-14
700
Apr-14
AMEC, p
Maire Tecnimont vs European Services
135
65
Apr-13
60
110
80
50
Apr-13
40
120
CGG Veritas vs European Services

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Apr-14
20
Amec vs European Services
60
0
European Services vs US Services
90
-50
-20
20
Jan-14
CGG, E
8
Apr-14
410
360
310
260
210
160
110
60
10
Apr-13
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jul-13
Oct-13
MT vs Sector
Jan-14
0.0
Apr-14
MT, E
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage
29 April 2014
27

Petrofac vs European Services
PGS vs European Services
130
1600
120
1500
110
1400
100
1300
90
1200
80
1100
70
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
PFC vs Sector
Jan-14
1000
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
PGS vs Sector
Saipem vs European Services
Jan-14
140
120
25
110
20
105
15
10
80
60
Oct-13
SBMO vs Sector
Jan-14
0
Apr-14
90
70
70
60
50
50
30
40
Apr-14
44
42
40
120
38
110
36
100
34
90
32
Jan-14
TRE, E
120
100
85
Jul-13
Oct-13
18
16
14
12
Jul-13
Oct-13
SPM vs Sector
140
90
80
Apr-13
10
Apr-13
20
Jan-14
10
Apr-14
SPM, E
Jan-14
80
Apr-14
SUB, NOK
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Apr-13
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
Jul-13
Oct-13
TEC vs Sector
Jan-14
60
Apr-14
TEC, E
Wood Group vs European Services
130
TRE vs Sector
22
80
160
SUB vs Sector
140
Oct-13
24
110
Technip vs European Services
100
SBMO, E
Tecnicas Reunidas vs European Services
Jul-13
130
90
PGS, NOK
95
100
Jul-13
100
Subsea 7 vs European Services
160
80
Apr-13
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Apr-13
PFC, p
SBM Offshore vs European Services
40
Apr-13
Services
30
Apr-14
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Apr-13
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
Jul-13
Oct-13
WG vs Sector
Jan-14
600
Apr-14
WG, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays Oil Services Index calculated as a market capitalisation weighted average for companies under coverage.
29 April 2014
28
Services
Amec vs Wood Group
Saipem vs Technip
Petrofac vs Wood Group
150
130
130
140
120
110
130
110
120
90
100
70
90
110
100
80
90
50
80
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
30
Apr-13
70
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Maire Tecnimont vs Tecnicas Reunidas
PGS vs CGG Veritas
Petrofac vs Maire Tecnimont
310
130
160
260
120
140
210
110
160
100
110
90
60
80
10
Apr-13
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
120
100
80
60
40
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
20
Apr-13
Jul-13
Petrofac vs Tecnicas Reunidas
Subsea 7 vs Saipem
Subsea 7 vs Technip
120
170
120
150
110
90
130
100
80
110
90
90
80
110
100
70
60
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research.
29 April 2014
29

25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
Oil Services - Europe
Aker
AMEC
CGG Veritas
Hunting
Maire Tec
Petrofac
PGS
Polarcus
Saipem
SBM
Subsea 7
Technip
Tecnicas
TGS
Wood Group
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
Services
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
100
1238
12.3
869
2.63
1443
71.5
4.31
19.5
13.03
113
82.3
42.6
200
792
0.5
-0.4
2.5
0.5
-0.4
0.4
1.1
2.7
0.8
-0.7
1.6
-1.1
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.6
6.6
4.1
7.1
3.0
9.6
2.8
3.3
5.3
4.0
0.6
6.9
7.6
3.5
2.2
4.7
4.4
11.5
4.3
3.9
1.5
5.0
3.4
0.3
1.4
9.5
-1.4
5.7
11.1
3.6
3.8
6.5
4.3
7.7
17.4
13.3
5.6
43.9
8.2
13.0
0.0
14.2
23.8
7.3
21.2
11.2
14.4
10.7
13.2
7.2
11.3
6.3
1.7
-2.9
1.2
-2.1
-7.5
10.5
-1.0
1.0
10.2
4.2
1.6
4.1
2.8
7.2
11.3
6.3
1.7
-2.9
1.2
-2.1
-7.5
10.5
-1.0
1.0
10.2
4.2
1.6
4.1
2.8
-6.5
15.5
-1.7
13.0
62.0
19.7
1.2
-7.1
25.8
-11.6
-1.9
18.2
8.2
25.7
17.1
11.2
-12.8
3.8
-7.5
11.2
66.9
18.3
3.4
0.5
13.9
-10.7
-2.9
7.2
3.9
23.7
12.5
8.3
27.1
3.6
-25.0
-0.4
8.5
-11.6
-5.1
19.7
-3.2
1.5
-8.9
-18.6
17.0
-10.6
-12.1
-1.2
2.7
12.7
3.7
6.3
41.5
23.4
0.4
-21.3
23.5
15.3
19.3
13.5
-1.9
1.1
3.5
9.1
-27.5
-5.2
-2.2
-18.0
-18.2
-16.8
-21.7
-26.2
-47.3
3.2
-25.7
-1.3
-2.3
-23.6
-7.0
-15.3
-8.2
-1.7
-24.2
5.0
-10.7
-17.5
-9.9
-8.2
-20.3
19.6
-1.4
-10.3
1.5
15.7
11.4
-3.9
116.1
33.9
75.5
93.5
-83.0
53.0
111.9
84.1
26.0
-2.5
70.6
102.2
0.6
187.6
147.9
63.9
Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under
coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
29 April 2014
30

25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
Oil Services - U.S.
Baker Hughes
Basic Energy Systems
Bristow Group
Cameron Int
CARBO
Chart industries
Core Laboratories
Diamond Off
Dresser-Rand
Dril-Quip
ENSCO
Exterran Holdings
FMC Tech
Global Geophysical
Gulfmark Offshore
Halliburton
Helmerich & Payne
Hercules Offshore
Hornbeck Offshore
ION Geophysical
Key Energy Ser
Nabors
National Oilwell
Noble Corp.
Oceaneering
Parker Drilling
Patterson-UTI
Rowan Comp
Schlumberger
Seacor
Seadrill
Superior Energy
Tenaris
Tetra
Thermon
Tidewater
Transocean
Weatherford
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
Services
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
69.7
26.03
76.2
64.6
135.4
75.3
190.7
53.5
61.2
113.7
51.7
43.8
56.8
0.10
44.5
62.9
107.0
4.51
40.8
4.39
9.81
24.7
83.5
31.5
73.7
6.50
32.2
31.3
101.8
83.3
208
32.6
16.3
12.60
23.8
51.8
42.9
20.5
-0.1
-6.8
0.3
-0.5
-0.9
-3.6
-1.7
3.5
0.5
-0.5
0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-5.9
0.0
-1.0
0.0
3.9
-2.0
-3.5
-4.0
0.0
0.7
-0.9
-2.2
-4.3
-0.7
-0.6
0.0
-4.5
3.6
0.0
0.1
-2.3
-1.0
0.9
-0.6
11.2
-0.6
2.0
-7.5
2.7
1.6
-2.5
-2.1
-11.2
10.5
2.4
1.5
3.4
0.1
3.6
3.5
-0.5
3.2
-3.5
2.3
1.2
-5.2
0.6
-0.3
1.3
3.7
-0.1
-0.3
-2.3
3.0
1.8
-2.9
2.7
4.0
0.9
-3.4
-2.4
5.6
5.7
12.4
0.9
10.0
-2.4
5.3
6.5
1.1
1.1
-4.9
16.6
6.8
5.1
6.3
2.7
8.9
13.6
4.2
9.1
1.0
4.9
7.0
6.6
1.9
5.1
6.8
6.0
5.1
-4.8
4.6
3.6
4.8
-0.2
5.0
9.1
1.7
4.6
0.3
9.1
8.7
22.0
5.3
12.8
10.4
3.6
4.3
14.2
-10.4
-0.7
21.0
11.6
13.4
6.8
14.8
10.6
-91.7
-0.2
13.9
9.2
0.7
5.2
7.6
21.7
12.4
11.9
8.3
3.8
-9.5
11.9
-1.3
14.2
1.7
2.9
14.8
8.2
7.4
-4.8
12.8
10.4
27.2
5.6
7.2
-5.0
0.9
4.6
-1.9
-5.2
-3.9
9.7
4.8
1.5
-2.1
-0.1
8.6
-12.8
-1.0
6.7
-0.5
-1.7
-2.5
4.3
6.2
0.3
7.2
-3.8
2.6
-8.3
1.7
-7.1
4.4
-3.7
-1.9
5.8
1.9
-1.6
2.8
6.6
3.7
17.9
1.2
7.2
-5.0
0.9
4.6
-1.9
-5.2
-3.9
9.7
4.8
1.5
-2.1
-0.1
8.6
-12.8
-1.0
6.7
-0.5
-1.7
-2.5
4.3
6.2
0.3
7.2
-3.8
2.6
-8.3
1.7
-7.1
4.4
-3.7
-1.9
5.8
1.9
-1.6
2.8
6.6
3.7
17.9
1.2
26.1
65.0
1.5
8.5
16.2
-21.3
-0.1
-6.0
2.6
3.5
-9.7
28.2
8.8
-93.5
-5.6
23.9
27.3
-30.8
-17.2
33.0
24.2
45.6
5.0
-16.0
-6.5
-20.0
27.3
-11.5
12.9
-8.7
-15.1
22.3
2.8
1.9
-12.8
-12.5
-13.2
32.1
3.1
17.7
73.7
0.6
3.8
18.4
-16.9
3.9
-14.3
-2.0
2.0
-7.7
28.3
0.2
-92.6
-4.6
16.0
27.9
-29.6
-15.1
27.6
17.0
45.1
-2.1
-12.6
-8.9
-12.8
25.1
-4.8
8.2
-5.2
-13.5
15.6
0.8
3.6
-15.2
-18.0
-16.3
12.1
1.5
11.3
22.0
0.8
0.6
17.3
-25.1
11.4
-8.8
-4.8
-5.4
5.5
21.8
-7.1
-40.4
-7.9
4.4
18.6
-13.2
-14.8
-38.1
5.5
2.9
0.9
-2.2
-3.2
38.7
15.1
-4.9
1.2
-0.4
-10.5
4.0
-7.3
-3.4
18.4
0.6
9.9
-3.1
0.3
5.2
1.7
10.7
-4.4
51.0
27.9
11.8
-9.4
0.5
24.8
-7.3
-2.9
-0.7
-42.0
10.4
13.4
8.1
4.6
5.0
-13.9
18.0
1.5
12.1
-0.5
9.1
13.1
6.0
6.7
21.4
7.3
9.1
-4.2
14.9
19.0
11.3
3.9
-7.8
10.8
6.5
0.9
-3.7
0.4
-4.0
-23.4
19.7
13.1
-0.6
-1.3
5.5
-0.9
9.0
3.3
101.7
21.5
4.5
4.4
-2.6
17.6
-9.9
-21.0
-2.0
-1.2
-0.7
8.9
16.4
-15.6
-1.8
-3.2
14.6
10.4
4.3
-1.6
6.0
-7.4
13.4
-6.1
12.8
4.8
13.6
19.8
22.9
15.5
16.2
20.0
26.2
2.4
9.8
19.3
1.2
23.2
27.0
-36.4
13.1
16.5
8.4
20.3
35.3
4.6
16.3
12.2
3.5
9.6
23.5
-7.0
28.0
13.1
8.1
13.3
-0.6
25.3
-0.9
35.2
-1.4
13.0
16.3
8.5
13.0
-2.1
52.9
82.8
74.2
7.2
332.2
48.2
6.5
78.9
65.9
47.5
-15.4
60.4
-43.9
27.7
38.9
53.6
151.8
124.4
80.8
-24.1
-18.0
105.6
6.9
143.8
27.1
42.9
44.2
25.4
20.0
104.7
10.9
17.4
-13.0
NA
16.6
-8.7
-15.4
47.5
Source: Datastream, Barclays. The European Market is the Eurostoxx, the European Integrateds, is the corresponding FTSE 300 index. The Barclays European Refining Index is calculated using arithmetic averages for companies under
coverage. The Barclays European Services Index is calculated using market capitalisation weighted averaged for companies under coverage. The Barclays E&Ps Index is calculated using a free float weighted average for our coverage.
29 April 2014
31
E&Ps
29 April 2014
32
E&P - Europe
Valuations
EV:EBIDA, x
P/E, x
Price
Target
Up/(Down)
Rating
25-Apr
Price
side, %
Afren
O/W
146
225
54
3.1
4.7
4.3
7.5
9.8
Africa Oil
O/W
48.7
75.0
54
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
Company
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
FCF yield, %
15F
Net Debt/Equity, %
EV/2P
x
EV/2P+2C
x
15F
Barclays
2014
Cons
2014
Change in
NAV
NAV
last mnth
cons in
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
7.8
0.4
(1.5)
(0.7)
30.5
31.7
29.2
13.5
8.4
225
207
nm
(12)
(15)
(16)
(54) (15.7)
28.0
79.2
75
83
E&Ps - Europe
Bowleven
O/W
33
135
312
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
(15)
(2)
(5)
(3)
(3)
(7)
1.1
135
142
-37
Enquest
U/W
131
155
18
4.2
3.4
1.5
9.1
6.7
7.0
(30)
26.9
28.6
0.0
(0.2)
17.6
7.8
155
163
Oryx Petroleum
O/W
14.9
20.0
34
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0)
0.2
0.7
20.8
9.2
20
19
Premier Oil
O/W
327
485
48
6.6
5.7
4.0
12.2
8.8
8.0
(12)
(15)
11.3
68
88.1
67.5
18.3
6.9
485
457
-3
Rockhopper Exploration
O/W
98
235
140
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
(5.3)
(12)
(4.9)
1.2
235
280
-1
Salamander Energy
E/W
124
130
4.0
nm
nm
nm
(14)
(4.8)
9.3
149
117.3
12.9
5.8
130
187
-2
Soco International
U/W
416
415
(0)
7.5
9.0
8.5
21.3
11.7
10.0
9.0
6.0
8.2
(20) (20.5) (24.6)
16.8
15.8
415
428
Tullow Oil
O/W
840
1450
73
20.1
14.1
14.6
70.5
29.4
27.8
(2.9)
(7.1)
(9)
35
50.9
69.8
39.9
15.9
1450
1236
-3
64
7.6
7.5
6.0
18.4
16.8
11.3
(9)
(4.8)
(0.6)
6.3
15.5
16.8
Arithmetic average
(90) (75.4) (70.3)

154.7
21.0
-2
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
29 April 2014
33
Valuations
E&P - Europe
2014 Average
30
20
Cons vs BC EPS (%)
2014 Average
SIA
TLW
TLW
SMR
RKH
SMR
RKH
PMO
OXC
ENQ
RoACE, %
TLW
SIA
SMR
RKH
PMO
OXC
ENQ
CNE
BLVN
TLW
SIA
SMR
RKH
PMO
OXC
ENQ
CNE
BLVN
AOIL
AFR
TLW
SIA
-20
SMR
-20
RKH
0
PMO
-10
OXC
-10
AOIL
5
ENQ
CNE
10
CNE
2014 Average
ROACE, %
10
BLVN
BLVN
EV: 2P reserves
20
AOIL
AOIL
AFR
TLW
SIA
SMR
RKH
PMO
ENQ
CNE
BLVN
AFR
AOIL
20
AFR
PMO
10
25
2014 Average
OXC
20
Datastream consensus relative to Barclays NAV, %
EV: 3P reserves
ENQ
30
EPS Growth
10
AOIL
AFR
TLW
SMR
EV:2P, x
40
2014
15
2014 Average
50
SIA
SMR
RKH
PMO
OXC
ENQ
CNE
BLVN
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
AOIL
180%
140%
100%
60%
20%
-20%
-60%
-100%
AFR
Dollar EPS Growth, y/y %
EV/2P+2C, x
FCF Yield, %
2014 Average
2013
RKH
OXC
P/E
SIA
2014 Average
OXC
TLW
SMR
RKH
OXC
ENQ
EV/EBIDA
SIA
-10
PMO
-10
ENQ
-10
CNE
-5
BLVN
-5
AOIL
-5
AFR
SIA
PMO
CNE
10
BLVN
15
10
AOIL
15
10
AFR
15
CNE
BLVN
P/E, x
AFR
EV:EBIDA, x
2014 Average
Source: Datastream
29 April 2014
34
E&P - Europe

SMDR
PMO
TLW
SIA
OXC
ENQ
Sector
BLVN
CNE
Brent
AFR
RKH
AOIL
SMDR
AOIL
PMO
RKH
BLVN
CNE
ENQ
Sector
OXC
AFR
Brent
SIA
TLW
-5
10
15
20
25
SMDR
OXC
SIA
Brent
ENQ
Sector
AFR
TLW
AOIL
BLVN
RKH
CNE
-10
-5
10
15
20
European E&P vs Brent
AOIL
SIA
AFR
Brent
Sector
ENQ
PMO
TLW
RKH
SMDR
CNE
BLVN
110
105
105
100
-20
20
40
Afren vs European E&P
120
110
100
90
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
AFR vs Sector
Jan-14
AFR, p
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Apr-14
20
75
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
90
90
110
80
100
70
70
60
50
50
40
30
30
Jul-13
Oct-13
BLVN vs Sector
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
Apr-14
Cairn Energy vs European E&P
110
10
Apr-13
10
80
Bowleven vs European E&P
130
85
85
-40
-10
90
90
-60
-20
95
95
80
Apr-13
-30
European E&P vs European market
100
-80
-40
Jan-14
BLVN, p
20
Apr-14
90
80
70
60
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
CNE vs Sector
CNE, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage.
29 April 2014
35

Enquest vs European E&P
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Apr-13
Premier Oil vs European E&P

160
150
140
Rockhopper Exploration vs European E&P
115
105
130
95
120
85
110
100
Jul-13
Oct-13
ENQ vs Sector
Jan-14
90
Apr-14
200
120
180
100
160
80
140
120
60
100
SMDR vs Sector
Jul-13
Oct-13
PMO vs Sector
220
Oct-13
65
Apr-13
Jan-14
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
Apr-14
Jan-14
SMDR, p
80
Apr-14
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Apr-13
80
70
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
RKH, p
530
120
1200
480
110
1100
100
1000
90
900
80
800
70
700
330
SIA vs Sector
90
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Apr-14
Tullow Oil vs European E&P
380
Oct-13
100
RKH vs Sector
430
Jul-13
110
PMO, p
Soco International vs European E&P
140
Jul-13
75
ENQ, p
Salamander Energy vs European E&P
40
Apr-13
E&P - Europe
Jan-14
SIA, p
280
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
TLW vs Sector
Jan-14
600
Apr-14
TLW, p
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Barclays European E&P Index for the European companies. The index is calculated using free float weighted averages for the E&P companies under coverage
29 April 2014
36
E&P-Europe
Tullow Oil vs Cairn Energy
Bowleven vs Salamander Energy
Cairn Energy vs Premier Oil
170
150
130
150
130
120
110
130
110
100
90
90
110
90
80
70
70
50
Apr-13
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Tullow Oil vs Soco International
Soco International vs Premier Oil
Premier Oil vs Tullow Oil
130
180
120
110
160
110
90
140
100
70
120
90
50
100
80
30
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Afren vs Cairn Energy
Afren vs Premier Oil
Afren vs Soco International
230
180
120
160
110
210
190
170
100
140
150
90
120
130
110
90
70
Apr-13
80
100
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
80
Apr-13
70
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
29 April 2014
37

25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
E&P - Europe
Afren
Africa Oil
BowLeven
Cairn Energy
Enquest
Premier Oil
Rockhopper Exploration
Salamander Energy
Soco International
Tullow Oil
Arithmetic Average
E&P - Israel
Avner
Delek Drilling
Delek Energy Systems
Isramco Negev
Ratio Oil
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
E&P - Europe & Israel

-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
146
8
32.8
171
131
327
98
124
416
840
-1.6
0.2
1.6
-0.2
1.1
4.3
4.9
4.7
-0.4
-2.4
0.9
0.4
4.7
4.0
3.3
2.0
6.4
4.0
19.5
-0.8
-3.2
3.0
7.7
7.7
-3.2
3.7
4.4
5.6
0.5
21.3
2.5
2.1
4.4
-1.6
-5.7
-2.6
-12.3
-9.0
8.7
-7.9
23.2
0.3
9.2
-0.8
4.2
9.0
12.9
3.3
6.6
11.7
-0.9
23.4
6.0
13.1
7.0
4.2
9.0
12.9
3.3
6.6
11.7
-0.9
23.4
6.0
13.1
7.0
-12.5
-15.8
-12.5
-35.7
-1.1
5.7
-35.7
12.9
7.0
-0.3
-12.5
-16.0
-22.7
-22.5
-37.7
-7.3
-5.3
-35.1
-8.6
0.9
-11.9
-18.8
26.4
3.5
-31.3
5.1
6.8
-2.2
21.3
2.7
1.5
-15.2
0.3
11.6
18.6
1.9
8.9
16.9
2.1
9.8
-15.2
32.2
3.8
8.3
-9.1
-3.3
-38.4
-7.9
-18.0
-14.7
-18.6
-31.0
-7.4
-19.0
-14.4
1.0
0.7
36.6
-3.5
11.8
7.9
-8.7
2.2
-2.0
-8.8
3.2
78.1
549.4
-44.2
-37.3
34.4
18.1
-41.1
11.1
0.2
36.8
82.0
3.51
20.0
2422
0.73
0.52
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
-0.7
2.7
0.6
-0.2
0.3
0.8
-1.7
4.0
0.6
7.3
7.6
3.4
1.0
7.8
5.4
4.3
4.2
8.2
0.0
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
8.2
0.0
4.4
4.2
10.2
9.7
1.1
5.3
16.1
8.5
3.3
2.5
-9.1
3.8
8.1
1.7
10.0
4.9
3.7
9.4
6.6
6.9
15.8
19.7
37.0
7.2
30.4
22.0
-3.6
-4.6
3.6
-6.4
-1.8
-2.6
4.5
4.9
5.3
9.1
0.3
4.8
58.7
61.8
68.7
38.4
65.8
58.7
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The European E&P Sector is the corresponding Euro Stoxx indices and the US E&P Sector is the corresponding S&P 500 indices.
29 April 2014
38

25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
E&P - (Canada)
ARC Resources
Athabasca
Baytex Energy
BlackPearl Resources
Bonavista Energy
Canadian Natural Res
Canadian Oil Sands
Crescent Point
Enerplus
Legacy Oil & Gas
Lightstream
Oryx Petroleum
Paramount Resources
Pengrowth Energy
Penn West Petroleum
Petrobank Energy
Peyto E&P
Trilogy Energy
Vermilion Energy
Whitecap Resources
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
E&P Canada
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
32.3
8.3
45.7
3.0
17.1
44.7
23.3
44.0
24.0
8.6
6.6
14.9
57.7
6.9
9.9
0.5
39.6
30.9
71.6
14.1
-0.8
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
-2.2
-0.8
-3.7
-1.3
-0.7
-2.3
-1.7
0.7
0.1
-0.7
-1.2
0.0
-0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.9
-1.0
-2.4
-0.6
-2.0
0.0
-1.5
-0.6
-2.8
-1.5
-1.0
0.3
-2.7
-0.2
0.4
-1.9
-4.9
-4.4
-1.7
-2.8
-0.6
-0.4
-1.6
0.3
2.5
-0.8
1.0
0.1
2.4
2.4
3.9
2.4
7.4
5.0
-0.1
7.8
1.1
3.4
11.1
1.5
3.7
0.8
5.6
3.1
12.0
-0.4
6.9
28.3
9.6
12.9
9.2
9.2
15.7
31.8
20.8
2.9
28.0
2.8
8.2
15.2
13.2
15.1
13.5
22.7
13.9
6.3
3.8
0.4
14.2
5.8
5.5
0.3
9.1
8.6
17.7
17.7
3.8
21.2
3.7
6.7
23.8
5.1
14.1
3.8
14.1
9.3
6.3
3.8
0.4
14.2
5.8
5.5
0.3
9.1
8.6
17.7
17.7
3.8
21.2
3.7
6.7
23.8
5.1
14.1
3.8
14.1
9.3
5.4
22.8
5.7
27.3
18.3
19.7
12.1
2.7
19.7
34.4
8.3
2.3
43.1
1.6
7.0
29.4
17.3
7.9
10.6
7.2
15.1
-0.9
18.3
5.2
11.5
11.8
13.5
11.7
-5.8
10.2
14.2
-8.0
-1.4
18.1
-2.0
0.3
4.5
11.7
-5.4
6.6
-6.0
5.4
9.4
-18.5
-4.8
16.1
4.9
6.4
-2.2
2.1
8.4
-10.6
-25.3
-5.1
3.1
3.7
-26.9
-17.0
3.8
-5.6
5.3
1.4
-2.6
-2.5
23.2
14.6
20.8
-3.2
11.6
4.7
11.7
12.1
36.6
-3.4
4.9
3.1
19.8
5.2
-11.7
2.3
-4.6
12.5
13.2
8.5
-0.7
-28.4
-14.3
-34.2
-11.4
-11.7
-10.6
-10.5
2.0
-12.8
-12.5
NA
-6.1
-3.2
-0.8
-32.0
9.2
2.6
-5.7
8.1
-9.1
7.6
-14.8
-2.7
-24.6
-1.2
11.5
1.8
-0.1
12.8
-22.1
-15.6
NA
14.9
2.6
-0.9
-36.1
14.9
-1.4
-0.8
9.6
-2.4
32.4
1.4
44.0
14.8
-30.6
-13.4
-20.2
8.2
-39.8
-36.2
-48.3
NA
84.0
-45.7
-43.2
-35.9
68.6
235.1
64.9
84.8
17.1
29 April 2014
39

Local Price
25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
E&P - US
Anadarko
Apache
Bill Barrett
Cabot Oil & Gas
Chesapeake
Cimarex
Comstock
Concho Resources
Denbury Resources
Devon
Encana
EOG Resources
Exco Resources
Forest Oil
Gulfport Energy Corp.
Jones Energy
Kosmos
Marathon Oil
Newfield Exploration
Noble Energy
Occidental
Penn Virginia
Pioneer Natural
QEP Resources
Quicksilver
Range Resources
Resolute
Sandridge
SM Energy
Southwestern Energy
Stone Energy
Swift Energy
Talisman
Ultra Petroleum
W&T Offshore
Whiting PTL
WPX Energy
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
E&P US
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
99.5
87.3
24.1
38.2
28.8
119.4
26.6
128.7
17.1
70.4
22.6
99.0
5.9
1.9
71.8
15.0
10.9
36.1
31.8
72.8
96.4
NA
192.0
31.2
3.1
91.7
7.4
6.7
78.5
47.8
44.7
11.3
11.7
29.4
18.7
72.5
21.0
-0.7
-0.8
-2.7
0.6
-1.4
-2.6
-4.5
-3.7
-1.2
-2.1
-1.6
-4.3
-0.3
-2.1
-4.5
-2.3
-0.7
-0.8
-3.7
-2.9
-0.8
NA
-2.7
-3.1
3.7
-2.0
-5.5
-3.6
-1.0
-1.2
-3.4
-2.3
-1.3
-2.3
-3.1
-3.9
-2.6
-2.1
0.5
2.5
-1.5
9.3
2.2
-1.3
0.7
-3.4
-1.0
-0.4
-3.2
-3.3
-5.1
-3.1
-4.4
-2.9
-0.7
-1.8
-4.5
-2.2
-0.2
NA
-5.5
-3.5
0.7
-1.3
-6.1
-1.3
2.0
-2.3
-3.5
-4.0
-3.3
0.1
-1.9
-3.1
3.7
-1.5
3.1
6.3
3.6
17.8
10.1
4.8
13.2
2.7
4.2
4.2
0.9
0.4
1.4
2.2
-3.0
0.3
4.1
2.9
-0.9
4.8
3.3
NA
3.1
1.3
11.2
4.3
3.2
9.2
8.0
2.5
2.3
9.0
1.0
7.7
3.5
2.3
11.8
4.8
21.3
10.2
-0.8
12.4
15.1
6.7
39.9
8.7
4.9
12.2
11.9
6.5
15.0
10.0
10.4
6.0
3.0
9.1
14.8
9.2
-0.2
NA
3.1
9.6
15.4
4.6
-4.2
5.0
11.9
8.4
27.9
16.8
7.9
19.4
24.0
5.5
19.6
11.9
17.4
5.2
-5.8
12.7
12.4
0.3
16.3
5.1
4.0
5.2
5.8
1.0
5.7
-2.1
0.9
-1.0
-0.7
1.6
1.2
2.5
1.1
NA
2.6
5.9
16.7
10.6
2.4
8.5
10.1
3.9
6.6
4.7
5.9
9.3
8.0
4.5
16.6
5.9
17.4
5.2
-5.8
12.7
12.4
0.3
16.3
5.1
4.0
5.2
5.8
1.0
5.7
-2.1
0.9
-1.0
-0.7
1.6
1.2
2.5
1.1
NA
2.6
5.9
16.7
10.6
2.4
8.5
10.1
3.9
6.6
4.7
5.9
9.3
8.0
4.5
16.6
5.9
25.4
1.6
-10.0
-1.5
6.1
13.9
45.3
19.2
3.8
13.8
25.4
18.0
11.5
-48.2
13.7
3.5
-2.3
2.2
28.9
6.9
1.3
NA
4.3
1.7
0.0
8.8
-18.4
9.7
-5.5
21.5
29.3
-16.5
-9.1
35.8
16.9
17.2
3.2
8.7
6.9
-3.5
-4.4
-12.6
-5.6
13.5
24.9
13.4
-0.2
8.2
18.4
16.9
5.5
-47.1
12.8
4.6
-1.6
0.6
27.3
4.3
0.2
NA
1.7
-3.9
-14.3
-1.6
-20.3
1.2
-14.2
17.0
21.3
-20.3
-14.1
24.2
8.2
12.2
-11.5
2.5
-15.1
-0.6
3.6
4.5
3.4
6.0
13.7
-5.0
-12.7
5.6
4.0
-2.5
-21.9
-43.5
-4.0
-13.3
7.3
0.7
-11.7
0.2
0.8
NA
-5.3
8.5
41.5
11.0
6.5
-1.6
6.3
8.4
3.2
11.9
-3.2
4.0
-11.5
0.2
4.8
-0.5
7.1
2.2
22.5
5.7
24.6
45.2
-0.6
29.6
5.7
10.5
2.5
25.1
-9.2
47.7
34.3
NA
-1.2
0.1
13.3
11.9
3.9
NA
26.9
-1.6
18.0
-1.6
3.9
21.3
27.4
-0.9
43.4
-5.4
0.6
3.7
21.7
27.3
1.7
12.7
-0.5
9.3
0.6
6.4
0.1
-11.7
-0.3
-14.0
-4.8
-6.6
-11.9
2.5
10.1
-18.0
3.7
NA
-9.8
2.9
8.9
3.5
13.0
NA
17.8
-11.4
-35.4
-3.8
-29.5
-8.5
1.7
-1.2
3.0
-16.4
-7.3
0.3
5.0
-8.4
19.7
-3.9
17.7
-1.7
13.9
35.9
22.8
30.7
7.5
20.9
15.1
8.4
-1.5
6.0
5.3
-21.4
19.9
NA
-8.5
10.0
-16.3
13.7
2.3
NA
16.6
5.2
-21.3
29.0
41.6
-17.0
13.4
11.5
6.0
-3.8
8.2
10.9
-11.4
17.2
7.7
8.6
99.9
-6.2
-41.6
218.0
-20.2
-17.7
-44.7
49.1
11.7
-14.2
-35.1
21.9
-54.6
-65.2
219.0
NA
NA
63.7
-44.0
66.2
-0.2
NA
80.9
3.3
-74.5
56.3
-34.7
7.3
30.0
-14.0
81.9
-42.1
-25.3
-59.3
74.4
12.0
NA
15.2
29 April 2014
40
Global Emerging Market Oils
29 April 2014
41
GEM
Valuations
Company
Rating
Price
Target
Up/(Down)
25-Apr
Price
side, %
EV:EBIDA, x
P/E, x
FCF yield, %
Dividend yield, %
RoACE, %
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
13F
14F
15F
Barclays
2014
Cons
2014
Change in
EPS
EPS
last mnth
cons in
Integrated - Russia
Bashneft
E/W
59.4
71.0
20
5.1
4.0
3.3
7.8
5.0
4.1
17.5
15.9
18.6
10.6
12.0
13.4
18.7
24.5
24.5
11.88
10.21
Gazprom
O/W
7.0
9.5
36
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.4
4.7
8.2
10.6
5.8
6.2
10.1
12.2
9.0
9.0
1.49
1.39
Gazprom Neft
O/W
18.9
25.0
32
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.3
5.2
(7.5)
(0.0)
7.4
8.0
7.6
18.0
13.6
13.6
1.22
1.24
Lukoil
E/W
51.1
70.0
37
2.6
2.1
1.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
5.4
5.9
15.6
6.2
7.1
8.1
12.8
11.1
11.1
13.72
14.09
Novatek
O/W
96
140
45
9.1
7.0
6.1
9.7
7.6
6.9
3.6
5.5
6.8
3.1
4.0
3.6
24.0
24.7
24.7
1.28
1.06
Rosneft
U/W
6.2
7.3
16
5.4
4.8
4.7
5.5
4.7
5.0
(5.0)
11.7
8.3
6.0
5.3
5.0
11.6
8.5
8.5
1.32
1.35
Surgutneftegas
U/W
6.9
7.3
(0.9)
(1.2)
(1.6)
3.1
2.9
3.7
28.0
24.6
15.3
3.4
4.0
3.2
21.5
18.7
18.7
0.24
0.19
-2
Tatneft
E/W
34.6
40.0
16
4.0
3.4
3.1
5.4
4.7
4.8
13.2
13.9
14.5
4.7
5.3
5.3
16.1
15.8
15.8
1.22
1.09
26
3.8
3.2
2.9
5.1
4.3
4.2
9.1
9.8
11.2
5.9
6.5
7.1
16.9
15.7
15.7
Arithmetic average
0
1
Integrated - Other
Petrobras
E/W
14
20
48
7.9
8.0
6.5
7.9
7.7
5.5
(21)
(12)
(4.3)
3.0
4.5
4.9
4.9
5.0
6.4
1.75
1.70
Sasol
O/W
587
650
11
11.0
12.0
10.7
4.5
0.4 (10.6)
4.5
0.4
(11)
3.2
4.1
4.4
18.5
16.9
16.6
55.18
57.29
29
9.4
10.0
8.6
6.2
4.1
(8)
(5.8)
(7.4)
3.1
4.3
4.7
11.7
11.0
11.5
Arithmetic average
(2.6)
-5
0
-2
Services
C.A.T. Oil
E/W
14.7
8.0
(45)
8.6
7.6
6.3
2.4
1.8
1.4
0.3
0.3
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.6
12.3
12.3
0.95
0.97
COSL
O/W
19.7
25.8
31
2.9
2.7
2.7
14.7
14.4
14.1
8.3
9.0
9.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
8.4
7.4
7.4
1.38
1.93
Eurasia Drilling
O/W
24.5
42.0
71
3.4
2.3
1.2
nm
nm
nm
8.3
10.1
13.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.7
18.0
18.0
4.08
2.67
-1
Integra
O/W
19.3
4.5
(77)
19.7
15.7
13.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
2.4
3.6
4.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.5
21.8
21.8
0.59
3.35
nm
(5)
8.6
7.1
5.9
5.9
5.5
5.2
4.8
5.7
6.8
0.3
0.3
0.4
13.3
14.9
14.9
Arithmetic average
Source: Company data, Datastream, Barclays Research - Price targets are based on a sum-of-the-parts based DCF methodology.
29 April 2014
42
Valuations
GEM
P/E, x
Dividend yield, %
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2014 Average
2013
SASL
PBRA
TATN
SRGT
ROSN
NVTK
LKOH
GAZN
GAZP
SASL
PBRA
TATN
SRGT
NVTK
LKOH
GAZN
ROSN
2014 Average
Dollar EPS Growth y/y , %

60%
40%
20%
0%
RoACE, %
2014 Average
EPS Growth
SASL
PBRA
TATN
SRGT
ROSN
NVTK
LKOH
GAZN
SASL
PBRA
TATN
SRGT
ROSN
NVTK
LKOH
GAZN
GAZP
-20%
BASH
SASL
PBRA
SRGT
ROSN
NVTK
LKOH
GAZN
GAZP
BASH
TATN
2014 Average
GAZP
Cons vs BC EPS (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
EV/Capital Employed
BASH
SASL
PBRA
TATN
2014
ROACE, %
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
BASH
SASL
PBRA
TATN
SRGT
SRGT
ROSN
NVTK
LKOH
BASH
2014 Average
EV/Capital Employed, x
Datastream consensus e relative to Barclays EPS,%
GAZP
FCF Yield, %
GAZN
-100
2014 Average
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
GAZP
-10
SASL
-50
PBRA
0
TATN
SRGT
10
ROSN
50
NVTK
20
LKOH
100
GAZN
Dividend Yield, %
2014 Average
30
GAZP
ROSN
P/E
BASH
NVTK
SASL
PBRA
TATN
SRGT
ROSN
NVTK
LKOH
GAZN
GAZP
BASH
EV/EBIDA
LKOH
0
-5
GAZN
GAZP
10
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
BASH
15
BASH
EV:EBIDA, x
2014 Average
Source: Datastream
29 April 2014
43
GEM

SOL
PBR
PBR
BAN
BAN
SOL
TAT
TAT
BAN
PBR
SOL
TAT
LKOH
LKOH
LKOH
SUR
SUR
GAZN
ROSN
ROSN
ROSN
GAZ
GAZN
SUR
GAZN
GAZ
GAZ
NVTK
NVTK
NVTK
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
-10
10
15
-30
20
-20
Russian Oils vs Brent
Russian Oils vs Market

110
SOL
110
BAN
105
TAT
100
NVTK
-5
-10
10
20
100
95
GAZN
90
ROSN
90
85
GAZ
LKOH
80
SUR
75
PBR
70
Apr-13
-40
-20
20
40
60
80
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index.
29 April 2014
44
Russia
RTS vs Urals
Sector vs RTS
110
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Apr-13
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Gazprom vs RTS
120
11
10
110
9
100
90
7
6
80
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
5
Jul-13
Oct-13
GAZP vs RTS
Lukoil vs RTS
Rosneft vs RTS
110
80
105
70
100
60
90
50
85
80
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
LKOH vs RTS
Jan-14
40
Apr-14
130
10
120
8
100
90
80
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
LKOH, $
Oct-13
ROSN vs RTS
Jan-14
4
Apr-14
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Apr-13
ROSN, $
Jul-13
Novatek vs Sector
Gazprom vs Novatek
130
140
110
120
130
100
120
Jan-14
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Apr-14
NVTK, $
80
100
90
70
90
80
70
Apr-13
GAZP, $
90
110
100
Oct-13
NVTK vs RTS
Rosneft vs Lukoil
110
4
Apr-14
Novatek vs RTS
110
95
Jan-14
60
80
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
70
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. Relative calculations use the Russia RTS index.
29 April 2014
45

CAT Oil vs Russian Oil Services
Russia
Eurasia Drilling vs Russian Oil Services
Integra vs Russian Oil Services
200
30
110
50
6,005
25
180
25
100
45
5,005
20
40
4,005
35
3,005
30
2,005
25
1,005
160
20
140
15
120
10
100
80
60
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
CAT vs Sector
Jan-14
0
Apr-14
90
80
70
60
50
40
Apr-13
CAT, E
Jul-13
Oct-13
EDCL vs Sector
CAT Oil vs Brent
Jan-14
20
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
INTE vs Sector
Eurasia Drilling vs Brent
Jan-14
0
Apr-14
INTE, $
Integra vs Brent
7,010
120
280
6,010
110
5,010
100
230
4,010
90
180
3,010
80
130
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
CAT Oil vs Eurasia
70
2,010
60
1,010
50
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Eurasia vs Integra
10
Apr-13
140
4,005
310
120
3,505
100
3,005
260
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
1,005
20
0
Apr-13
Apr-14
1,505
40
110
Jan-14
2,005
60
160
Oct-13
2,505
80
210
Jul-13
Integra vs CAT
360
60
Apr-13
10
EDCL, $
330
80
Apr-13
5
Apr-13
15
505
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
5
Apr-13
29 April 2014
46

Local Price
25-Apr
Indices & markets
FTSE All
StoxxEuro
S&P 500
MSCI EMG
MSCI Russia
Integrated - Russia
Bashneft
Gazprom
Gazprom Neft
Lukoil
Novatek
Rosneft
Surgutneftegas
Tatneft
Arithmetic Average
Integrated - Other
Petrobras
Sasol
Arithmetic Average
Services
C.A.T. Oil
China Oilfield Systems
Eurasia Drilling
Integra
Arithmetic Average
-1d
-5d
GEM
-10d
-30d
MTD
QTD
YTD
1Q 14
4Q 13
3Q 13
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3581
321
1863
1920
661
-0.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.4
-2.4
0.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-6.7
2.1
0.5
2.6
1.3
-7.8
2.8
3.4
1.2
2.9
3.4
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
-9.9
1.6
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
-9.9
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.3
-23.9
-0.9
2.9
1.3
0.0
-15.5
7.1
7.9
9.1
4.9
-1.3
9.7
14.6
4.1
9.8
13.3
-3.1
0.0
2.8
-1.7
-11.3
2.1
-0.6
10.0
4.4
-3.5
33.8
14.5
38.8
19.9
18.9
2120
6.99
18.9
51.1
96.5
6.23
6.88
34.6
-0.8
-2.0
-2.4
-1.9
-1.4
-1.5
-1.7
-2.0
-1.7
0.6
-4.0
-4.0
-2.5
-4.4
-3.1
-2.6
-1.8
-2.7
3.3
-6.9
-6.2
-4.2
-5.4
-4.5
-6.0
-6.5
-4.6
17.2
6.1
1.7
-0.9
-3.3
-0.6
-3.0
9.2
3.3
7.7
-9.2
-8.2
-8.1
-12.3
-6.4
-6.7
1.0
-5.3
7.7
-9.2
-8.2
-8.1
-12.3
-6.4
-6.7
1.0
-5.3
-3.3
-18.3
-16.3
-18.3
-29.5
-18.2
-20.4
-9.5
-16.7
-10.2
-9.9
-8.9
-11.0
-19.7
-12.6
-14.7
-10.4
-12.2
2.7
-5.3
1.8
-1.8
3.9
-6.8
-0.7
-3.5
-1.2
4.4
33.9
21.3
9.3
10.8
16.7
10.6
6.4
14.2
-10.2
-23.0
-15.6
-10.9
10.9
-10.2
-12.3
-8.2
-9.9
7.2
-9.6
-9.0
-2.7
-10.0
-14.4
1.6
-9.2
-5.8
63.5
2.7
30.2
32.3
67.3
50.5
4.4
60.2
38.9
13.5
587
-1.7
-0.6
-1.2
-3.6
-1.1
-2.4
-3.8
0.4
-1.7
30.2
4.6
17.4
2.7
-1.7
0.5
2.7
-1.7
0.5
-2.0
12.2
5.1
-4.6
14.1
4.8
-11.8
2.9
-4.5
16.6
7.8
12.2
-18.3
-2.0
-10.2
-14.9
3.8
-5.5
-42.1
22.5
-9.8
14.65
19.7
24.5
19.25
-6.6
3.5
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.7
7.2
3.4
7.0
4.0
3.2
-2.5
2.9
7.0
2.6
4.9
7.0
18.0
60.4
22.6
-4.7
8.5
-4.4
13.2
3.2
-4.7
8.5
-4.4
13.2
3.2
-27.8
-17.9
-45.6
14.2
-19.3
-24.2
-24.4
-43.0
0.9
-22.7
48.1
23.7
13.1
16.7
25.4
21.6
28.1
3.9
4713.3
1191.7
26.7
-6.6
5.2
-16.3
2.3
37.6
1.6
-0.6
-10.7
7.0
1.9
74.5
87.9
-81.6
20.7
Source: Datastream, Barclays Research. The Asian Market is the Hang Seng Index, the Asian sector, is the corresponding OILSGSAJ index
29 April 2014
47
ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):
We, Lydia Rainforth, CFA, Paul Y. Cheng, CFA, Mick Pickup, Alessandro Pozzi, Matthew Thomas, Caroline Learmonth and Somshankar Sinha,
hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or
issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Barclays Research is a part of the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each
individually, "Barclays"). For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a written
request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barclays.com
or call 212-526-1072.
The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
Research analysts employed outside the US by affiliates of Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
These analysts may not be associated persons of the member firm and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and incorporated NYSE
Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analysts
account.
Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting
payment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.
In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to
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The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental
analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ
from recommendations contained in other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or
otherwise.
Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)
Afren Plc (AFRE.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 1.42), Overweight/Positive, F/J
Africa Oil Corp. (AOIC.ST, 28-Mar-2014, SEK 43.30), Overweight/Positive, J
Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL, 28-Mar-2014, NOK 93.50), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N
Alon USA Energy (ALJ, 28-Mar-2014, USD 14.48), Underweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/L/O
Bashneft (BANE.MM, 28-Mar-2014, USD 53.65), Equal Weight/Neutral, D/J/K/L/M/N
BG Group (BG.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 11.12), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N
Bowleven PLC (BLVN.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 0.30), Overweight/Positive, A/D/F/J/K/L/N/Q
BP (BP.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 4.84), Underweight/Positive, A/C/D/F/G/J/K/L/M/N
C.A.T. Oil AG (O2C.DE, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 14.57), Equal Weight/Positive, J
CGG (GEPH.PA, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 11.20), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/N
Chevron Corporation (CVX, 28-Mar-2014, USD 118.50), Equal Weight/Positive, A/C/D/E/J/K/L/M/N/O
China Oilfield Services (COSL) (2883.HK, 28-Mar-2014, HKD 18.44), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N
ConocoPhillips (COP, 28-Mar-2014, USD 70.35), Overweight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N
Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK, 28-Mar-2014, USD 28.43), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N/O
Eni (ENI.MI, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 18.18), Equal Weight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N
Enquest (ENQ.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 1.26), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/N
Essar Energy (ESSR.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBp 67.2), Rating Suspended/Negative, D/E/J/K/L/M/N
Eurasia Drilling Co., Ltd. (EDCLq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 24.90), Overweight/Positive, J
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, 28-Mar-2014, USD 97.70), Equal Weight/Positive, A/C/D/E/J/K/L/M/N/O
Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to ExxonMobil
International Holdings Inc and ExxonMobil Energy Limited, both fully-owned subsidiaries of Exxon Mobil Corporation in relation to their proposed
sale of an interest in Castle Peak Power Company Limited and in Hong Kong Pumped Storage Development Company Limited.
Galp Energia (GALP.LS, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 12.40), Overweight/Positive, D/J/L
Gazprom (GAZPq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 7.38), Overweight/Neutral, D/J/K/L/M/N
Gazprom Neft (SIBNq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 20.24), Overweight/Neutral, A/D/J/K/L/M/N
Grupa Lotos (LTSP.WA, 28-Mar-2014, PLN 36.80), Equal Weight/Negative, J/K/M
29 April 2014
48

Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 7.28), Equal Weight/Negative, D/E/J/K/L/M
Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays is providing investment banking services to Hellenic
Petroleum SA in relation to the potential sale of their stake in DESFA SA to the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). The rating,
price target and estimates for Hellenic Petroleum do not incorporate the impact of this potential transaction.
Hess Corp. (HES, 28-Mar-2014, USD 83.22), Overweight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N
Hunting (HTG.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBp 841.5), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/N/Q
Integra Group (INTEq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 17.00), Overweight/Positive, J
Lukoil (LKOHyq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 53.15), Equal Weight/Neutral, J/K/N
Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 2.54), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/L
Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays Bank Plc is providing equity advisory services to Maire
Tecnimont SPA
MOL (MOLB.BU, 28-Mar-2014, HUF 12600.00), Underweight/Positive, D/J/L
Motor Oil (MORr.AT, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 9.38), Overweight/Negative, J
Murphy Oil (MUR, 28-Mar-2014, USD 62.75), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/N
Neste Oil (NES1V.HE, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 14.58), Underweight/Negative, D/J/K/L/M/N
Novatek (NVTKq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 103.30), Overweight/Neutral, A/D/J/K/L/M
OMV (OMVV.VI, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 32.44), Underweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N
Oryx Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (OXC.TO, 28-Mar-2014, CAD 14.50), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/L/R
Petrofac (PFC.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 14.16), Underweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR, 28-Mar-2014, USD 13.18), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA, 28-Mar-2014, USD 13.90), Equal Weight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M
Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL, 28-Mar-2014, NOK 70.80), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N
PKN Orlen (PKN.WA, 28-Mar-2014, PLN 42.09), Underweight/Negative, D/J/L
Polarcus (PLCS.OL, 28-Mar-2014, NOK 4.54), Equal Weight/Positive, J
Premier Oil (PMO.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 2.92), Overweight/Positive, A/D/F/J/K/L/M/N
Repsol (REP.MC, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 18.61), Equal Weight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 1.00), Overweight/Positive, F/J/K/N
Rosneft (ROSNq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 6.48), Underweight/Neutral, D/J/K/L/M/N
Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 21.94), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/E/J/K/L/M/N
Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 23.40), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/E/J/K/L/M/N
Saipem (SPMI.MI, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 17.19), Equal Weight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N
Salamander Energy (SMDR.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 1.05), Equal Weight/Positive, J
Saras (SRS.MI, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 1.30), Underweight/Negative, D/J/K/L/M/N
Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J, 28-Mar-2014, ZAR 595.30), Overweight/Neutral, C/D/J/K/L/M/N/O
SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 12.60), Overweight/Positive, C/J
Soco International (SIA.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 4.02), Underweight/Positive, J
Statoil ASA (STL.OL, 28-Mar-2014, NOK 169.50), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N
Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL, 28-Mar-2014, NOK 109.50), Overweight/Positive, D/J/K/L/M/N
Surgutneftegas (SNGSyq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 7.16), Underweight/Neutral, J
Tatneft (TATNxq.L, 28-Mar-2014, USD 33.58), Equal Weight/Neutral, J/K/M
Technip (TECF.PA, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 75.00), Overweight/Positive, C/D/J/K/L/M/N
Other Material Conflicts: The Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays Bank Plc is providing equity advisory services to Technip SA.
Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 40.80), Equal Weight/Positive, J/K/M/N
Tesoro Corporation (TSO, 28-Mar-2014, USD 50.50), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/F/J/K/L/M
TGS (TGS.OL, 28-Mar-2014, NOK 190.50), Underweight/Positive, J
Total (TOTF.PA, 28-Mar-2014, EUR 48.03), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/F/J/K/L/M/N
Tullow Oil (TLW.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 7.60), Overweight/Positive, A/D/J/K/L/M/N/Q
Tupras (TUPRS.IS, 28-Mar-2014, TRY 44.90), Underweight/Neutral, J/K/N
29 April 2014
49

Valero Energy (VLO, 28-Mar-2014, USD 52.86), Overweight/Positive, A/C/D/J/K/L/M/N
Wood Group (WG.L, 28-Mar-2014, GBP 7.68), Overweight/Positive, C/D/E/F/J/K/L/M/N
Disclosure Legend:
A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of the issuer in the
previous 12 months.
B: An employee of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a director of this issuer.
C: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in equity securities issued by this issuer or one of its affiliates.
D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.
E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer
within the next 3 months.
F: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of equity securities of the issuer as of the end of the month
prior to the research report's issuance.
G: One of the analysts on the coverage team (or a member of his or her household) owns shares of the common stock of this issuer.
H: This issuer beneficially owns 5% or more of any class of common equity securities of Barclays Bank PLC.
I: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has a significant financial interest in the securities of this issuer.
J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of this issuer.
K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from this issuer within the past 12 months.
L: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
M: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
N: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
O: Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in this issuer's stock, which is listed on the New York
Stock Exchange. At any given time, its associated Designated Market Maker may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and its
associated Designated Market Maker may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the stock.
P: A partner, director or officer of Barclays Capital Canada Inc. has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for
remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.
Q: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC, is a Corporate Broker to this issuer.
R: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12
months.
S: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. is a market-maker in an equity or equity related security issued by this issuer.
Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below)
relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverage
universe").
In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral or
Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investors
should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating
Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12month investment horizon.
Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or to
comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Corporate and Investment Banking Division
of Barclays is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Industry View
Positive - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
Neutral - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
29 April 2014
50

Negative - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.
Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO)
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Hess Corp. (HES)
Husky Energy, Inc. (HSE.TO)
Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO)
Murphy Oil (MUR)
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBRA)
Suncor Energy (SU.TO)
Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas

Bharat Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (BPCL.NS)
Cairn India (CAIL.NS)
China Steel Chemical (1723.TW)
CNOOC (0883.HK)
Formosa Chemicals (1326.TW)
Formosa Petrochemical (6505.TW)
Formosa Plastics (1301.TW)
Gail India (GAIL.NS)
Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (HPCL.NS)
Indian Oil Corp., Ltd. (IOC.NS)
Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW)
Oil & Natural Gas Corp., Ltd. (ONGC.NS)
Oil India (OILI.NS)
PetroChina (0857.HK)
PETRONAS Chemicals (PCGB.KL)
Petronet LNG (PLNG.NS)
Reliance Industries (RELI.NS)
Sinopec (0386.HK)
Anton Oilfield Services (3337.HK)
China Oilfield Services (COSL) (2883.HK)
EZRA Holdings (EZRA.SI)
Hilong Holding, Ltd. (1623.HK)
Honghua Group (0196.HK)
Keppel Corp. (KPLM.SI)
Sembcorp Marine (SCMN.SI)
SPT Energy Group (1251.HK)
TSRC Corp. (2103.TW)

Asia ex-Japan Oil Services & Drilling
CEEMEA Oil & Gas

Bashneft (BANE.MM)
Gazprom (GAZPq.L)
Gazprom Neft (SIBNq.L)
Lukoil (LKOHyq.L)
Novatek (NVTKq.L)
Rosneft (ROSNq.L)
Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J)
Surgutneftegas (SNGSyq.L)
Surgutneftegas (SNGS_p.MM)
Tatneft (TATNxq.L)
BG Group (BG.L)
BP (BP.L)
Eni (ENI.MI)
Galp Energia (GALP.LS)
MOL (MOLB.BU)
OMV (OMVV.VI)
Repsol (REP.MC)
Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L)
Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L)
Statoil ASA (STL.OL)
Total (TOTF.PA)
European Oil & Gas: E&P

Afren Plc (AFRE.L)
Africa Oil Corp. (AOIC.ST)
Bowleven PLC (BLVN.L)
Cairn Energy (CNE.L)
Caracal Energy Inc. (CRCL.L)
Enquest (ENQ.L)
Oryx Petroleum Corp., Ltd. (OXC.TO)
Premier Oil (PMO.L)
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L)
Salamander Energy (SMDR.L)
Soco International (SIA.L)
Tullow Oil (TLW.L)

Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL)
AMEC plc (AMEC.L)
CGG (GEPH.PA)
Hunting (HTG.L)
Maire Tecnimont (MTCM.MI)
Petrofac (PFC.L)
Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS.OL)
Polarcus (PLCS.OL)
Saipem (SPMI.MI)
SBM Offshore (SBMO.AS)
Subsea 7 SA (SUBC.OL)
Technip (TECF.PA)
Tecnicas Reunidas (TRE.MC)
TGS (TGS.OL)
Wood Group (WG.L)
Essar Energy (ESSR.L)
Grupa Lotos (LTSP.WA)
Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT)
Motor Oil (MORr.AT)
Neste Oil (NES1V.HE)
PKN Orlen (PKN.WA)
Eurasia Drilling Co., Ltd. (EDCLq.L)
Integra Group (INTEq.L)
European Refining & Marketing
Saras (SRS.MI)
Russian Oil Services & Drilling
C.A.T. Oil AG (O2C.DE)
TMK (TRMKq.L)
Turkey General Industrials
29 April 2014
51

Arcelik (ARCLK.IS)
BIM (BIMAS.IS)
Ford Otosan (FROTO.IS)
Koc Holding (KCHOL.IS)
Migros (MGROS.IS)
Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS.IS)
Tofas Fabrika (TOASO.IS)
Tupras (TUPRS.IS)
Turkish Airlines (THYAO.IS)
Alon USA Energy (ALJ)
Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK)
HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC)
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC)
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Tesoro Corporation (TSO)
Valero Energy (VLO)
Western Refining, Inc. (WNR)
U.S. Independent Refiners
Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Equity Research has 2616 companies under coverage.
45% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 45% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
37% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 43% of
15% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 39% of
Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:
Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock will
trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's price
target over the same 12-month period.
Barclays offices involved in the production of equity research:
London
Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, London)
New York
Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)
Tokyo
Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Tokyo)
So Paulo
Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, So Paulo)
Hong Kong
Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)
Toronto
Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Toronto)
Johannesburg
Absa Bank Limited (Absa, Johannesburg)
Mexico City
Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico City)
Taiwan
Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited (BCSTW, Taiwan)
Seoul
Barclays Capital Securities Limited (BCSL, Seoul)
Mumbai
Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, Mumbai)
Singapore
Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)
29 April 2014
52
DISCLAIMER:
This publication has been prepared by the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and/or one or more of its affiliates (collectively
and each individually, "Barclays"). It has been issued by one or more Barclays legal entities within its Corporate and Investment Banking division as provided
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instrument.
Without limiting any of the foregoing and to the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Barclays, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers,
directors, partners, or employees have any liability for (a) any special, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages; or (b) any lost profits, lost revenue, loss of
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Other than disclosures relating to Barclays, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that Barclays Research believes to
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independently of any other interests, including those of Barclays and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take
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Global Oil and Gas - Seasonal Drop in LNG Prices - Barclays - Apr 2014

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Global Oil and Gas - Seasonal Drop in LNG Prices - Barclays - Apr 2014

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Equity Research

Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Seasonal drop in LNG prices

Lydia Rainforth, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 6695

+44 (0)20 7773 3640

Absa Capital, Johannesburg

Source: Energy Intelligence, Barclays Research

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Americas Integrated Oil

Paul Cheng CFA

Asia ex-Japan Oil

Somshankar Sinha, Clement Chen

European Integrated Oil

Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone

European Exploration & Production

European Oil Services & Drilling

European Refining & Marketing

Lydia Rainforth CFA, Joshua Stone

Russian Oil Services & Drilling

Paul Cheng, CFA

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

REFINING AND MARKETING MARGINS .................................. 5

TANKER AND EXCHANGE RATES ............................................ 6

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Share price performance .............................................................................................. 13

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Q1 2014 Earnings Release

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OILS ....................................... 41

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Crude oil and natural gas prices

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream

Source: Bloomberg, Natural Gas Week, European Gas Markets

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Refining and marketing margins

European marketing margins - $/bl

US gasoline marketing margins - $/bl

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Source: European Energy Commission, Barclays Research

Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Tanker and exchange rates

Source: Clarksons Shipping Weekly

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

Natural Gas Storage, bcf

Rolling 12 month average

Non-commercial Paper Positions, m bl

Futures Curve - Brent, $/bl

Baker Hughes US Rotary Rig Count

Barclays | Global Oil & Gas Weekly

European Diesel Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

European Naptha Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

European Kerosene Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

European LSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

European HSFO Brent Crack Spread, $/bl

Brent-WTI Spread, $/bl

Brent-Urals Crude Spread, $/bl