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Company Report
Reported Results
Please see analyst certification (Reg. AC) and other important disclosures on pages 5-6 of this report.
November 11, 2009
Company Report
Reported Results
VALUATION:
Our $16 per-share fair value is based on an Enterprise-to-Sales multiple of 8.3x our calendar 2010 revenue estimate of
$141.0 million. In our view, A123 Systems could financially benefit from the projected growing demand for lithium-ion battery
technology in various developing end-markets.
INVESTMENT RISKS:
Financial
A123 Systems operates in a growing applications market. The primary challenge for vendors is to maintain financial stability
in the long term, in our view. There is no guarantee that costs and expenses can be lowered enough to ensure that the
company's products will be affordable in the commercial and consumer marketplace.
Competitive
The composite supplier landscape is characterized by competition, with some vendors that have significantly larger asset
bases. There is no guarantee that A123 will be able to remain competitive in the changing landscape.
Geographic
A123 Systems is targeting multiple market segments for its advanced battery products. In each market, there is likely to be
government support for the increased usage of cleaner alternative energy sources. There is no guarantee that this will
benefit the company directly.
Intellectual Property
There is an ongoing litigation over the intellectual property involving the technology behind rechargeable lithium iron
phosphate-based batteries. There is no guarantee of a favorable outcome for the company.
A123 Systems owns or exclusively licenses 46 patents, with 200 patents pending in the U.S. or internationally. We note that
there is a significant lag time between patent applications and when they are published, which typically takes over a year.
During that time window, competitors may leverage the technology, as there is no patent protection. There is risk that the
protective measures in place are not adequate to protect intellectual property.
Customers
The company has several key customers that should facilitate the entry of A123's products into the marketplace. However,
the top three customers currently represent over 70% of revenues. A loss or deterioration of these relationships could be
extremely detrimental to the company.
Product
While we believe that the company's battery products are innovative, they may be considered disruptive. There are many
factors, including market hesitancy to accept disruptive technologies and commercial readiness that could lead to failure.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
A123 Systems is a supplier of high-power lithium-ion batteries for use in the portable power, transportation, and grid
services markets.
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A123 Systems, Inc. (AONE)
Summary of Quarterly Earnings & Forecast
December Fiscal Year, $ in millions
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Revenues Growth (y/y)
1 Quarter $10.3 $23.2 $21.7 $95.4 1 Quarter 26.8% 125.5% (6.5%) 339.2%
2 Quarter 11.6 19.7 30.6 101.1 2 Quarter 3.1% 69.3% 55.2% 230.5%
3 Quarter 22.9 23.6 39.0 121.5 3 Quarter 165.2% 2.9% 65.4% 211.4%
4 Quarter 23.6 21.9 49.7 159.6 4 Quarter 77.9% (7.4%) 126.9% 221.2%
Total 68.5 $88.4 $141.0 $477.5 Year 65.7% 29.0% 59.5% 238.7%
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A123 Systems, Inc. (AONE)
Summary of Quarterly Earnings & Forecast
December Fiscal Year, $ in millions
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Earnings Before Taxes PTI Margin
1 Quarter ($13.9) ($18.7) ($21.7) ($23.6) 1 Quarter (135.2%) (80.7%) (100.1%) (24.8%)
2 Quarter (18.8) (22.2) (20.8) (23.8) 2 Quarter (161.8%) (112.8%) (68.1%) (23.5%)
3 Quarter (18.9) (22.8) (17.0) (18.4) 3 Quarter (82.3%) (96.8%) (43.5%) (15.2%)
4 Quarter (28.5) (23.6) (19.6) (12.3) 4 Quarter (120.6%) (107.6%) (39.4%) (7.7%)
($80.2) ($87.4) ($79.1) ($78.1) Total (117.0%) (98.8%) (56.1%) (16.4%)
Taxes
1 Quarter $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1
2 Quarter 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
3 Quarter 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
4 Quarter 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total $0.3 $0.4 $0.4 $0.4
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November 11, 2009
Company Report
Reported Results
Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification
I, Michael Lew, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject
securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
I, Colin Volek, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject
securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this report has/have received compensation based on various factors, including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
ThinkEquity LLC makes a market in A123 Systems, Inc. securities; and/or associated persons may sell to or buy from customers on a
principal basis.
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21
18
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008 2009
Created by BlueMatrix
Rating Definitions
Effective October 7, 2009, ThinkEquity LLC moved from a four-tier Buy/Accumulate/Source of Funds/Sell rating system to a three-tier
Buy/Hold/Sell system. The new ratings appear in our Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide chart. To request historical information, including
previously published reports or statistical information, please call: 866-288-8206, or write to: Director of Research, ThinkEquity LLC, 600
Montgomery Street, San Francisco, California, 94111.
Buy: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate positive risk-adjusted returns of more than 10% over the next 12 months. ThinkEquity
recommends initiating or increasing exposure to the stock.
Hold: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate risk-adjusted returns of +/-10% over the next 12 months. ThinkEquity believes the stock
is fairly valued.
Sell: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate negative risk-adjusted returns of more than 10% during the next 12 months. ThinkEquity
recommends decreasing exposure to the stock.
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November 11, 2009
Company Report
Reported Results
ThinkEquity LLC
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [B] 119 65.70 9 7.56
HOLD [H] 56 30.90 2 3.57
SELL [S] 6 3.30 0 0.00
This report does not purport to be a complete statement of all material facts related to any company, industry, or security mentioned. The
information provided, while not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The
opinions expressed reflect our judgment at this time and are subject to change without notice and may or may not be updated. Past
performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made regarding future performance. This notice shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall
there be any sale of these securities in any state in which said offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or
qualification under the securities laws of any such state. This research report was originally prepared and distributed to institutional clients
of ThinkEquity LLC.
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advisors before making any investment decisions based on this report. Stocks mentioned in this report are not covered by ThinkEquity
LLC unless otherwise mentioned.
Additional information on the securities mentioned is available on request. In the event that this is a compendium report (covers more than
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by reference. To request more information regarding these disclosures, please call: 866-288-8206, or write to: Director of Research,
ThinkEquity LLC, 600 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, California, 94111. Stocks mentioned in this report are not covered by
ThinkEquity LLC unless otherwise mentioned.
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