ESTIMATED MILK PRODUCTION OF 305 DAYS USING

TEST DAY RECORDS AT BBPTU-SP BATURRADEN

Heni Indrijani
Fakultas Peternakan UNPAD
ABSTRACT
The research addressed to know the shape of lactation curve and correlation
between actual milk production of !" da#s with estimated milk production of !" da#s
usin$ Ali%&chaeffer re$ression model which were approach b# Test Da# records s#stem'
The research had been conducted at (alai (esar Pembibitan Ternak Un$$ul &api Perah
)((PTU%&P* (aturraden+ Purwokerto ,entral -ava+ and total data anal#sed were ./
Test Da# records'
The result showed that the lactation curve of Ali%&chaeffer re$ression model of
estimated milk production nearl# close to actual lactation' That correlation with actual
milk production e0ual to !+1/ and milk production of !" da#s e0ual to !+1"' It can
be concluded that test da# records that combine with Ali%&chaeffer re$ression model
can be used to estimate the milk production of !" da#s in dair# cattle with hi$h
correlation'
Key words D!"ry #!$$%e& M"%' (rod)#$"o*& Tes$ D!y& L!#$!$"o* C)r+e&
A%"-S#,!e--er Re.ress"o* Mode%/
DUGAAN PRODUKSI SUSU 305 0ARI BERDASARKAN
CATATAN TEST DAY DI BBPTU-SP BATURRADEN
Heni Indrijani
Fakultas Peternakan Universitas Padjadjaran
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk men$etahui bentuk kurva produksi susu dan
korelasi antara produksi susu !" hari sebenarn#a den$an du$aan produksi susu !"
hari #an$ men$$unakan pendekatan kurva persamaan Ali%&chaeffer berdasarkan
pencatatan Test Da#' 2okasi penelitian dilakukan di (alai (esar Pembibitan Ternak
Un$$ul &api Perah )(PPTU%&P* (aturraden+ Purwokerto -awa Ten$ah den$an jumlah
catatan Test Da# #an$ di$unakan dalam analisis seban#ak ./ catatan'
Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kurva produksi susu laktasi I dari
model persamaan re$resi Ali%&chaeffer hampir mendekati bentuk kurva produksi susu
laktasi I sebenarn#a' Nilai korelasi den$an produksi sebenarn#a sebesar !+1/+ dan
produksi koreksi !" hari sebesar !+1" sehin$$a dapat disimpulkan bahwa catatan Test
Da# #an$ dikombinasikan den$an persamaan re$resi Ali%&chaeffer+ dapat di$unakan
untuk mendu$a produksi susu !" hari sapi perah den$an ketepatan #an$ san$at tin$$i'
K!$! ')*#" S!(" Per!,& Prod)'s" S)s)& Tes$ D!y& K)r+! L!'$!s"&
Mode% Re.res" A%"-S#,!e--er/
I*$rod)#$"o*
&election for milk #ield in dair# cattle is $enerall# based on the anal#sis of !"
da# lactation records' In order to estimates !" da# lactation #ields+ Test Da# )TD*
#ields are $enerall# recorded at monthl# intervals' Incomplete lactation records are
usuall# e3tended to !" da# records' The accurac# of !" da# #ields depends on the
number of TDs+ the number of da#s between tests and the methods of estimatin$ !"
da# #ields' 4an# scientist have describe models for the anal#sis of TDs #ields )5.%h
measurements* to estimates !" da# lactation #ields )6a#a+ et al'+ 5!!*'
4an# mathematical model+ both linier and non linier have been proposed to
describe the shape of lactation curves' Previous work has used 7ood and 7ilmink
re$ression to describe the shape of lactation' ,omparisons of estimates their prediction
errors for milk #ield+ were made amon$ models' The model usin$ Ali%&chaeffer
re$ression model had more advanta$e for comparison of prediction error variances of
dail# #ield' The research addressed to know the shape of lactation curve and correlation
between actual and milk #ields of !" da#s with estimated milk #ields of !" da#s
usin$ Ali%&chaeffer re$ression model which were approach b# TDs records s#stem'
M!$er"!% !*d Me$,ods
Total data anal#sed were ./ Test Da# )TD* records and restricted to first
lactations' TD records between 8 and !/ da# durin$ lactation period+ and that TDs milk
#ield were formed to milk production standard of !" da# )milk std !"d*' The research
had been conducted at (alai (esar Pembibitan Ternak Un$$ul &api Perah )((PTU%&P*
(aturraden+ Purwokerto ,entral -ava' 9e$ression models used to predict 4ilk #ield std
!"d was Ali%&chaeffer re$ression' The model was :

+ =
t
f
t
d
t
c
t
b a Y
t
!"
ln
!"
ln
!" !"
5
5
7here : ;
t
< Test Da# )TD* milk #ields
a+ b+ c+ d+ f < ,oeffisien re$ression
t < Time )da#*
Res)%$
,omparison (etween TD 4ilk ;ields are $iven in Table = and also Fi$ure ='
Actual milk #ield and also milk #ield production estimated b# Ali%&chaeffer re$ression+
peaked at around 5/ DI4 and then declined as lactation pro$ressed+ as reported b#
Indrijani )5!!=*' The differences between actual milk #ields and estimated b# Ali%
&chaeffer re$ression were ver# small' This was also true for the re$ression spline e3cept
for a small deviation at the middle of lactation periode' ,orrelation (etween 4ilk
;ields are presented in Tabel 5'
Tabel =' ,omparison (etween TD 4ilk ;ields
TD Actual Ali%&chaeffer Differences
8 =5'8/ =5'8> !'!5
5/ ="'55 ="'= % !'!1
"> =.'=8 =.'!8 !'=!
/. ='5" ='! !'55
==5 =='15 =5'55 %!'!
=.! =='"1 =='"5 !'1
=>/ =!'8= =!'/ %!'!1
=1> =!'!= =!'!8 %!'!>
55. 1'8 1'5= !'=>
5"5 /' /'5! !'=
5/! 8'"! 8'/ !'=5
!/ >'>5 >'" !'!1
Kurva Produksi Nyata & Produksi Dugaan Ali - Schaeffer
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
18,00
-40 10 60 110 160 210 260 310
Hari Uji
P
r
o
d
u
k
s
i

S
u
s
u
TD Produksi Nyata
TD Produksi Dugaan
Test Day
Actual and sti!ated "ilk #ield $y Ali-Schaeffer %egression
Actual "ilk #ield
sti!ated "ilk #ield
&y Ali'Schaeffer
%egression
"
i
l
k

#
i
e
l
d
Fi$ure =' 4ilk ;ield ,urve
Tabel 5' ,orrelation (etween 4ilk ;ields
Actual
milk #ield
4ilk #ield
&td !"d
4ilk #ield
A%&
4ilk #ield A%&
&td !"d
Actual milk #ield =
4ilk #ield std !"d !+1"" =
4ilk #ield A%& !+1/ !+1" =
4ilk #ield A%& &td !"d !+18= !+1"" !+1/> =
The stud# of relationships between mathematical properties of functions used to
model lactation curve is usuall# limited to the evaluation of the $oodness of fit'
Problems related to the e3istence of different lactation curve shapes' Ali%&chaeffer
re$ression had five parameters+ so it can be increased the fle3ibilit# to estimate a ver#
lar$e number of observation'
The correlation between actual+ std !"d+ and A%& milk #ield were ver# hi$h
)!'1"%!'1/>*' This clearl# e3plained wh# Ali%&chaeffer re$ression had the best fit' This
su$$est that TD milk #ield which combined with A%& re$ression+ could be use to
estimate milk #ield std !"d' These result were consistent with our previous studies on
other places )Indrijani+ 5!!/? Indrijani and Anan$+ 5!!5*'
There are various advanta$es of usin$ TD records+ such as the fact that the# do
not have to be e3tended usin$ a number of factors+ and there is better modelin$ with TD
records than !" da# ones+ and more accurate to $enetic evaluation )Ptak and &chaeffer+
=11? &walve+ 5!!!*' Also+ a smaller number of records ma# be as effective for $enetic
evaluation purposes as lar$er number of records and would allow for a reduction in
computational time )(i$nardi+ et al'+ 5!!>*'
Co*#%)s"o*
Ali%&chaeffer re$ression model have been su$$ested for $enetic anal#sis of TD
milk #ields because of the abilit# to predict lactation curve for ever# animal with hi$h
correlation between predicted and actual milk production standard !" da#' 4oreover+ a
compromise+ often based on subjective $rounds+ must be accepted between $oodness of
fit and other properties such as $reat fle3ibilit#+ sensitivit# of the data+ smoothness+
robustness and computational considerations'
A#'*ow%ed.1e*$
The author e3pressed her $ratitude to Irwan 4ahd#ana+ for his time spent as
numerator' 7e are $reatful to Asep Anan$ for valuable discussions and for sharin$ their
pro$rams'
Re-ere*#e
Ali+ T'@' and 2'9' &chaeffer' =1/8' Accountin$ For ,ovariances Amon$ Test Da# 4ilk
;ield In Dair# ,ows' ,an' -' Anim' &ci'+ >8:>8%>..'
(i$nardi+ A'('+ 2' @l Faro+ A'2' ,ardoso+ P'F' 4achado+ and 2'B' Albu0uer0ue' 5!!>'
@stimation of Benetic Parameters for First 2actations Test Da# 4ilk ;ield of
Holstein ,attle Usin$ 9andom 9e$ression 4odels' /th 7,BA2P+ ,D%9C4
,ommunication no' : !=%.1'
Indrijani+ H' 5!!=' Pen$$unaan ,atatan Test Da# untuk 4en$evaluasi 4utu Benetik
&api Perah' Tesis 4a$ister &ains' Pro$ram Pascasarjana IP(+ (o$or'
Indrijani+ H' 5!!/' Pen$$unaan ,atatan Produksi &usu !" Hari Dan ,atatan Produksi
&usu Test Da# )Hari Uji* Untuk 4endu$a Nilai Pemuliaan Produksi &usu &api
Perah' Disertasi' Pro$ram Pascasarjana UNPAD+ (andun$'
Indrijani+ H'+ dan A' Anan$' 5!!5' @valuasi Benetik Produksi &usu pada &api Perah
den$an 4odel 9e$resi Tetap' -urnal Ilmu Ternak+ vol' I? ."%"!
6a#a+ I'+ ;' Akbas+ ,' UDma#' 5!!' @stimation of (reedin$ Aalue for Dair# ,attle
Usin$ Test%Da# 4ilk ;ields' Turk' -' Aet' Anim' &ci' Aol 58: ."1%.>.'
Ptak+ @'+ and 2'9' &chaeffer' =11' Use of Test Da# ;ields for Benetic @valuation of
Dair# &ires and ,ows' 2ivest' Prod' &ci' Aol .: 5%.'
&walve+ H'H' 5!!!' Theoritical (asis and ,omputational 4ethods for Different Test%
Da# Benetic @valuation 4ethod' -' Dair# &ci' Aol /: ==="%==5.'