By Victor Mlunde

It is clear, the lake border dispute talks between Tanzania and her
Southern neighbour Malawi over lake Nyasa have obviously hit a snag
after the Maputo mediation team failed to give a decisive ruling in March
2014, with Malawi still maintaining her claim over total ownership of the
lake based on 1890 Heligoland Treaty that reportedly draws the border
line at Tanzania side of the lake. On the other hand, Tanzania dismisses
Malawis position claiming the colonial treaty was a human mistake
because the lake is a historical heritage of all surrounding communities
and generations who shared its coastlines in Tanzania, Malawi and
Mozambique even before the arrival of the aliens. As we speak, even
Chissanos team of mediators comprising of the most prominent
diplomats on the continent such as former presidents Mbeki of South
Africa and Festus Mogae of Botswana could neither lead to any
diplomatic breakthrough nor compromise.

Source: Gado
Background - Banda and Nyerere did not see eye to eye
During the times of Presidents Nyerere and Kamuzu Banda, history
recalls that relations between the people of Tanzania and Malawi were
good, but official relations were strained. This is attributed to the fact
that Dr Hastings Kamuzu Banda supported apartheid whereas Mwalimu
Nyerere supported the ANC; tensions were further heightened when
Banda suspected Tanzania was aiding and abetting the attempts by
prominent Malawi exiles to subvert his regime. The lake dispute was fed

into this tension, indeed Kamuzu Banda and Nyerere did not see eye to
eye.
Present day motives behind the dispute?
The dispute over Lake Nyasa ownership which started in the early 1960s
and cooled off soon after, resurfaced immediately in 2000s after
geological surveys discovered a possibility of oil and gas reserves in the
lake.
Although the eighth largest lake in the world is also endowed with huge
fish resources able to sustain more than 600,000 people per year, yet the
most pressing issue underlining the tension now clearly seems to be the
scramble for possible oil and gas finds in the lake.
To make the matters even worse, both parties have been trading
accusations of foul play against each other, with Tanzania ordering
Malawi to suspend private exploration for oil and gas in the lake.
Bygones be bygones, the outcome of Tuesday general elections in Malawi
could be a potential game changer expected to determine which policy
Lilongwe is likely to adopt towards the border dispute with Tanzania,
given the fact that successive Malawi administrations had adopted
different approaches, both silent and hard-line over time.
Presidential contenders and their potential stance on the
dispute

There are reportedly 12 presidential contenders with four of them having
a high chance of winning the Tuesday elections.
Number one contender is the incumbent Joyce Banda (Peoples Party -
PP), her hard-line stance on the lake dispute and her ultimatum to refer
the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), already threatens
the very life of Maputo mediation process, brokered by eminent
personalities on the continent led by former Mozambican president,
comrade Joacquim Chissano.

Another frontrunner is a preacher-turned-politician, Lazarus Chikwera
(Malawi Congress Party - MCP), his international policy in response to
the lake dispute is largely a puzzle but likely passive.
Then there is the youthful Atupele Muluzi (United Democratic Front -
UDF), the 35 years-old son of former president Bakili Muluzi who
enjoyed fruitful relations with Tanzania during his tenure and adopted a
rather silent policy on the border dispute. This could possibly influence
his son to adopt a more diplomatic and productive approach to the
conflict if he secures the top most office.
Peter Mutharika, is another leading candidate who is a younger brother
of the immediate former president, late Bingu-wa-Mutharika, the soft-
spoken initiator of the bilateral negotiations on the border dispute who
could not achieve any milestones during his almost decade-long tenure.
It is clear that Tanzania is eagerly waiting to learn the winner of
Tuesdays Malawi elections and his/her foreign policy priorities, so that
to prepare for a revival of the negotiation process, currently in shambles.
Challenges lying ahead?
Absence of Malawi ambassador in Tanzania Although the replacement
of late Malawi envoy is likely to be appointed in the short-run, the
transitional period will likely cause uncertainty over the future of
Maputo talks, leaving a diplomatic vacuum that might itself slow down
the mediation process at least in the short run.
Tanzania 2015 elections - As Malawians had just concluded its
controversial presidential elections yesterday, Tanzania is preparing for
its 2015 general elections. No doubt 2015 will be a busy period
compounded by the likelihood that some local politicians might engage
into anti-Malawi rhetoric during campaigns to boost their local approval
ratings/election chances and consequently hurt the delicate border talks.
Arbitration at ICJ, a bitter pill? Professor Rosalyn Higgins, former head
of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which may handle the border
dispute if diplomacy fails, has already given her legal opinion suggesting
that Malawi owns the entire lake.

Potential great lakes-style conflict - Bottom line, whoever comes into
power in Malawi should engage with his/her Tanzania opposite number
in clearing the cloud of uncertainty for mutual socio-economic benefit of
all the people and communities surrounding the lake.
He or she should be committed to avoiding getting into a series
prolonged and unproductive mediation processes such as DRC/ Great
lakes peace initiatives, Middle-East peace talks or six-party talks in the
Korean peninsula.
All in all, the last thing the two neighbours want is having a prolonged
mediation process that could indefinitely prevent them from exploiting
the oil and gas resources in the lake for development.
The author of the article, Victor Mlunde is a Dar es Salaam based
Political and Development Consultant with expertise in Elections and
Conflicts Resolution in the Great Lakes region. He can be easily reached
through +255 714 289428 and vicmlunde@yahoo.com