Regional Economic Press Briefing

May 21, 2014

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent
those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
What Kinds of Jobs Have Been Created During the Recovery?
Jaison R. Abel, Senior Economist

Overview
Recent Economic Performance
New York City remains on strong growth trajectory, some weakness
in Northern NJ to start the year, and signs of firming in Puerto Rico
Status of the J obs Recovery
A growing number of places in the region have gained back the
jobs lost during the Great Recession
Types of J obs Lost and Gained
Middle-skill jobs were hardest hit during the recession and have
not come back
During the recovery, job growth has been concentrated at the
higher and lower ends of the skills distribution
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 2
Recent Economic
Performance

Regional Economic Activity
Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico.
Note: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY. 4
80
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New York
State
New Jersey
New York
City
Puerto Rico
Apr
Mar
Last Briefing Shading indicates NBER recession.
Index (December 2007 = 100)

Recent Job Growth
Index of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.

5
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14
Upstate NY
Northern
New Jersey
Downstate
NY
Puerto Rico
United
States
Apr
Last Briefing
Index (U.S. Employment Trough Feb 2010 = 100)

Sectors Driving Regional Job Growth
Change in Employment over Past Year (as of April 2014)
6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.

-16,000
-12,000
-8,000
-4,000
0
4,000
-3,000
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Downstate NY
Northern NJ
Upstate NY
Puerto Rico
Health & Education Services
Professional &Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Government

Status of the
Jobs Recovery
8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.
Note: Putnam and Bergen are the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester
and Bergen-Hudson-Passaic Special BLS Areas.




Recovered All Lost Jobs
Recovered 3/4 of Lost Jobs
Recovered Less Than 3/4 of Lost Jobs
No Recovery
Newark
Elmira Binghamton
Putnam
Fair-
field
Edison
Kingston
NYC
Puerto
Rico

Share of Lost Jobs Gained Back
Local Total Employment Trough to April 2014
Glens
Falls
US = 99 percent
Buffalo
Rochester
Syracuse
Utica
Albany
Ithaca

Comparison to Previous Recessions
Total Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peak
9 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.

90
95
100
105
110
Index (Start of Downturn = 100)
1
st

Year
2
nd

Year
3
rd

Year
4
th

Year
5
th

Year
6
th

Year
Start of Local
Recession
Early 1990s
Downturn
Early 2000s
Downturn
Recent
Downturn
Apr
U.S.

Comparison to Previous Recessions
Total Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peak
10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.

90
95
100
105
110
Upstate NY
New York City
Northern New Jersey
90
95
100
105
110
U.S.
Index (Start of Downturn = 100)
Early 1990s
Downturn
Early 2000s
Downturn
Recent
Downturn
1
st

Year
2
nd

Year
3
rd

Year
4
th

Year
5
th

Year
6
th

Year
Types of Jobs
Lost and Gained

Grouping Occupations into Skill Categories
Based on 2013 Median Wage, United States
12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill
Management
Computer & Math
Legal
Engineering
Business & Finance
Healthcare Practitioner
Sciences

Education
Arts & Entertainment
Installation & Repair
Social Services
Construction
Protective Services
Administrative Support
Production
Transportation



Healthcare Support
Sales
Building Maintenance
Personal Care
Farming
Food Preparation


Job Change During the Great Recession
Percent Change, United States, 2007 to 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

13
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Higher Skill Lower Skill Middle Skill
United
States
1.0%
-9.3%
-2.6%

Job Change During the Great Recession
Percent Change, Region, 2007 to 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

14
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Higher Skill Lower Skill Middle Skill
Downstate
NY
Upstate
NY
Northern
NJ
Puerto
Rico

Job Change During the Recovery
Percent Change, United States, 2010 to 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

15
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill
United
States
7.8%
1.9%
6.0%

Job Change During the Recovery
Percent Change, Region, 2010 to 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

16
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill
Downstate
NY
Upstate
NY
Northern
NJ
Puerto
Rico

A Shrinking Middle
Share of Jobs by Skill Group, 2007 and 2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

17
28%
29%
52%
49%
20%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Higher
Skill
Middle
Skill
Lower
Skill
2007 2013
United States
28%
30%
27%
28%
26%
27%
25%
27%
50%
47% 54% 50%
52% 49%
60%
55%
22%
23%
20%
21% 22%
23%
16%
17%
2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013
Downstate NY Upstate NY Northern NJ Puerto Rico

Summary
A growing number of places in the region have gained back
the number of jobs lost during the Great Recession
However, the types of jobs in the region have changed
Middle-skill jobs lost during the recession have not come back
Higher- and lower-skill jobs have grown during the recovery
J ob opportunities in the middle have continued to shrink
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 18
Appendix

Unemployment Rates
Seasonally Adjusted, Local Peak and April 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.

21
10.0%
8.9%
10.1%
9.7%
16.9%
6.3%
6.7%
7.9%
6.9%
14.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
United States New York New York City New Jersey Puerto Rico
Peak
Current