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Risk Management and Risk Acceptance

D. Diamantidis, University of Applied Sciences,


Regensburg, Germany
OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. Risk definition
3. General risk acceptance criteria
4. Developments in current standards
5. Risk Management and Safety measures
6. Conclusions
Risk definition
a) Individual Risk
b) Societal Risk
Risk = Likelihood x Consequences
R = p x C (expected losses per year)
4
Direct Consequences
those first order consequences which occur
immediately after an event
Fatalities
Injuries
Repair and replacement of damaged or
destroyed public and private structures
Relocation costs/temporary housing
Loss of business inventory/agriculture
Loss of income/rental costs
Community response costs
Cleanup costs
5
Indirect Losses
may emerge much later, and may be much less
easy to attribute directly to the event
Loss of income
Input/output losses of businesses
Reductions in business /personal
spending ripple effects
Loss of institutional knowledge
Mental illness
Bereavement
Factors affecting risk acceptance
Voluntary vs. involuntary
Controllability vs. uncontrollability
Familiarity vs. unfamiliarity
Short/long-term consequences
Presence of existing alternatives
Type and nature of consequences
Derived benefits
Presentation in the media
Information availability
Personal involvement
Memory of consequences
Degree of trust in regulatory bodies.
General Risk Acceptance Criteria
Human Safety (Societal Risk - ALARP)
Calibration
Optimization (including human life - LQI)
II General Risk Acceptance Criteria
II General Risk Acceptance Criteria
Domains of experienced fatalities Domains of experienced fatalities Domains of experienced fatalities Domains of experienced fatalities
ALARP Risk Acceptance Criteria
(societal risk)
1,00E-09
1,00E-08
1,00E-07
1,00E-06
1,00E-05
1,00E-04
1,00E-03
1,00E-02
1,00E-01
1,00E+00
1 10 100 1000
Number of Fatalities
Annual Frequency
Maximum allowable frequency
Lower limit of ALARP region
ALARP Region
Hazard probability levels
Class Frequency Events / year
A frequent >10
B occasional 1-10
C remote 0.1-1
D improbable 0.01-0.1
E incredible 0.001-0.01
Hazard severity levels (Consequences)
Class Severity
Category
Human
losses
1 insignificant ---
2 marginal injuries
3 critical 1
4 severe 5
5 catastrophic 50
Risk Acceptability Matrix
for risk verification
AC: Acceptable NAC: Not Acceptable
ALARP: As Low As Reasonably Practicable
1 2 3 4 5
A ALARP NAC NAC NAC NAC
B ALARP ALARP NAC NAC NAC
C AC ALARP ALARP NAC NAC
D AC AC ALARP ALARP NAC
E AC AC AC ALARP ALARP
Example: dikes in Netherlands
(Vrouwenvelder)
4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
0
2
4
6
8
10
x 10
8
H [m]
Economical optimal dike height
Optimum
Damage costs
Construction costs
Total costs
Relation between Failure Probability p
f
and Reliability Index
p
f
10
-2
10
-3
10
-4
10
-5
10
-6
10
-7
10
-8
10
-9

2,33 3,09 3,72 4,27 4,75 5,20 5,61 6,00
Calibration through computation of values for various
member types (piles, columns, beams etc. inherent in the
codes)
Cost evaluation including loss
of human life
Life Quality Index (LQI)
LQI = g
w
e
(1-w)
g: g: g: g: the gross domestic product per person per year the gross domestic product per person per year the gross domestic product per person per year the gross domestic product per person per year
e: the life expectancy at birth e: the life expectancy at birth e: the life expectancy at birth e: the life expectancy at birth
w: w: w: w: the proportion of life spent in economic activity. the proportion of life spent in economic activity. the proportion of life spent in economic activity. the proportion of life spent in economic activity.
ICAF ICAF ICAF ICAF Implied Implied Implied Implied cost cost cost cost of of of of averting averting averting averting a a a a fatality fatality fatality fatality
ICAF = ge/4 (1-w)/(w)
ICAF = 2 5 Mio. $
g
max
= g/2 (1-w)/(w)
g = gross domestic product
per year per person
e = life expectancy at birth
w =proportion of life spent in
economic activity
Optimization criterion
Costs:
Annualised investment costs
Annual maintenance/operation costs
Benefits:
Human risk reduction
Direct/Indirect financial loss reduction
Developments in current Standards
Limit State Design
Partial safety factor format (Eurocodes)
LRFD format (ACI)
Checks at member level
Performance Based Design
FEMA, ASCE, ATC, NZBC
Overall check of the structure under
extreme loads (earthquake, blast, fire)
Target Reliability (1 year ref. Period)
new structures, ULS, component level
Minor Moderate Large
Large 3.1 3.3 3.7
Normal 3.7 4.2 4.4
Small 4.2 4.4 4.7
Consequences
C
o
s
t

o
f

s
a
f
e
t
y
Background Eurocodes, JCSS, 2001
Performance Based Design PBD
Loma Prieta earthquake,
October 17, 1989
Oakland, California
Magnitude: 6.9
Performance objectives
Performance Level
NEHPR (ATC,
1996)
Performance Level
Vision 2000
Short Description
Operational Fully Functional
No significant damage to
structural and non-structural
components
Immediate
Occupancy
Operational
No significant damage to
structure; non-structural
components are secure and
most could function if utilities
available
Life Safety Life Safety
Significant damage to
structural elements; non-
structural elements are secured
but may not function
Collapse
Prevention
Near Collapse
Substantial structural and non-
structural damage; limit margin
against collapse
EQ Probability levels
EQ -Level Event Annual
Exceedance
Probability
Mean
Return
Period
I Frequent 4% 25
II Occasional 1.4% 72
III Rare 0.125% - 0.4% 250 - 800
IV Max Con-
sidered
0.04% - 0.125% 800 - 2500
Performance Based Design
Hazard Levels Performance Levels
Hazard Level
for EQ
Operatio-
nal
Occupiable
Damaged
Life Safe,
Major Damage
Near
Collapse
Frequent
(50%/ 50yrs)
a b c d
Occasional
(20%/50yrs)
e f
g
h
Rare
(10%/50yrs)
i j k l
Max
considered
(2%/50yrs)
m n o
p
Commonly selected performance objectives
PBD criteria
p
E
. p
NP|E
< p
T
p
E
:propability of event
p
NP|E
:conditional probability of no
performance given event
p
T
:acceptable probability
PBD criteria (new structure)
p
E
. p
NP|E
< p
T
p
E
: 2% in 50 years
p
NP|E
: 10%
p
T
: 4x10
-5
per year
PBD criteria (old structure)
p
E
. p
NP|E
< p
T
p
E
:4% in 50 years
p
NP|E
:25%
p
T
:2x10
-4
per year (5 times larger)
P(C) = P(C|LE)P(L|E)P(E) < P
A
P(E) : probability of occurrence of E
P(L|E) : probability of local failure, L, given the occurrence of E
P(C|LE): probability of collapse given the occurrence of L due to E
P
A
: acceptable probability of global failure
RISK R:
R = P(C) x C < R
A
(acceptable Risk)
Probability of
collapse
Consequences of collapse
Global failure extreme events (storm, flood)
Identifical and modelling
of relevant accidental
hazards
Assessment of damage
states to structure from
different hazards
Assessment of the
performance of the
damaged structure
Assessment of the probability of
occurence of different hazards
with different intensities
Assessment of the probability of
different states of damage and
corresponding consequences
for given hazards
Assessment of the probability of inadequate
performance(s) of the damaged structure
together with the corresponding consequence(s)
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
Identifical and modelling
of relevant accidental
hazards
Assessment of damage
states to structure from
different hazards
Assessment of the
performance of the
damaged structure
Assessment of the probability of
occurence of different hazards
with different intensities
Assessment of the probability of
different states of damage and
corresponding consequences
for given hazards
Assessment of the probability of inadequate
performance(s) of the damaged structure
together with the corresponding consequence(s)
Identifical and modelling
of relevant accidental
hazards
Assessment of damage
states to structure from
different hazards
Assessment of the
performance of the
damaged structure
Assessment of the probability of
occurence of different hazards
with different intensities
Assessment of the probability of
different states of damage and
corresponding consequences
for given hazards
Assessment of the probability of inadequate
performance(s) of the damaged structure
together with the corresponding consequence(s)
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
Risk management and safety
measures
a) Interpretation of new data
b) Definition of cost-based acceptance criteria
c) Implementation of safety measures
d) Periodic review
Evaluation of safety measures
C
Ik
investment costs (including design and construction costs)
C
Ak
annual maintenance/operation costs
T desired lifetime of the measure
dR
k
risk reduction due to measure k divided into :
dR
Hk
reduction related to human risk
dR
Ck
reduction related to economic risk (direct and indirect costs)
(C
Ik
x (T))/T + C
Ak
< ICAF x dR
Hk
+ dR
Ck
Conclusions
Use of risk based methodologies
Implementation of risk acceptance criteria
Performance based approach
Protection/mitigation measures
Cost-benefit analyses
Periodic review