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A State of Flux
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Saxo Bank A/S
May 2014
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Ockhams Razor
Stock Market lags real economy by three months
Interest rates leads real economy by nine months
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What did happen 9-12 month ago?
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What did happen 3 month ago?
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Germany the negative surprise.
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Germany the negative surprise.
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No more easy money.?
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The Classic correlation S&P & FED BS
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Tapering marginal change?
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Valuations becoming real issue in the US
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Inflation is now unanchored
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Forward guidance false?
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Our JABA model sayslow in 2015-Q1
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Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..
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Global imbalances global balances
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US rates to the rescue?.
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China: Friend or foe for growth?.
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Iron ore leading growth.
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Weaker global growth will hurt BRL & AUD
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The worlds growth engine is sputtering
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Market Calls..Earnings based projection..
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Will equity finally pay the price..?
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Macro Outlook in headlines
Positions:
Mega long fixed income (Q3-2013) See new lows in yield
FX: Short AUDUSD(.8000 sub target),EURUSD(sub 1.2500)
Sell ZAR, TRY and IDR soon (all basket cases.w. no reform)
Equity: Long Israel + Russia vs. SPX (CAPE <10 vs. CAPE >24 (avg
13/14 waiting for catalyst to short SPX & DAX (plus Club Med)
Monetary Policy:
ECB will disappoint they love to talktoo much
BOJ is cornered (USDJPY 92/93
FED will taper the taper..
Fight will be on deflation..now unanchored
Economics:
Germany will go towards negative growth in Q4/Q1-2014/2015
Fragile Eight: No reforms, elections its time to sell..
2014: Another lost year
2015 H2: The true recovery
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Thank you!