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FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 MONITORING OF LAND

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 MONITORING OF LAND DRAINAGE IN EAST NILE DELTA USING
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 MONITORING OF LAND DRAINAGE IN EAST NILE DELTA USING

MONITORING OF LAND DRAINAGE IN EAST NILE DELTA USING REMOTE SENSING

H. M. Habib 1 , E. A. Zaghloul 2 , A.A. Hassan 3

1. National Authority of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, NARSS, P.O. Box 1564 Alf Maskan, Cairo, EGYPT

2. Prof. Director, Water and Engineering Applications Division, NARSS, P.O. Box 1564 Alf Maskan, Cairo, EGYPT

3. Prof. of Environmental Hydrology, Faculty of Eng., Ain Shams Univ., 1, Saryat st., Abbasia, Cairo, EGYPT

ABSTRACT The drainage system of Egypt is divided to four main drainage areas, the eastern part is considered as the one with the highest volumes flowing to the Mediterranean Sea. Fluctuations of the water levels and flows through the year as a result of different agricultural water uses according to the cropping pattern in the area has its own impact on the main drains and the receiving body of lake Manzala before discharging to the Mediterranean Sea. The case is always under field investigation and studies through national agencies to monitor its quality and quantity as a part of a main strategic plan of reuse of drainage water in the agricultural activities. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM and other data sources were tested to show the ability for acquiring valuable information regarding detection of drainage water variation in the region. Key words

Remote sensing; Landsat Thematic Mapper; land drainage; satellite-derived hydrological data; eastern delta; Egypt

INTRODUCTION

Land drainage and water abstraction for agriculture often fundamentally modify the natural hydrological functioning of adjacent or downstream wetlands from an environmental point of view, while land drainage flows constitute a vital water sources to be reused, when meet the limits, for agricultural activities where a lack of fresh water exists. Although remote sensing has great potential for addressing some of the deficiencies of limited hydrological data, applied hydrology has not readily embraced remote sensing as a useful source of data. Engman (1996) explains that this may be because existing techniques and data have only been sufficient for limited applications. In fact, most of the advances in remote sensing for

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hydrology have been in areas where monitoring methods were unsatisfactory or limited, or areas where data were scarce or non-existent. Engman (1996) also argues that, to meet the challenges of the needs of modern hydrology and to contribute to its future progress, there is a need for (a) more, better, and different spatial and temporal data that cannot be provided nor maintained by traditional hydrological instruments for various reasons including costs and feasibility, and (b) invaluable, long-term data that can be used for model development validation. The results reported herein are based on using a system for hydrology parameters monitoring using land observation. The aim is to develop and acquire hydrological data for drainage catchments and using a remote sensing software for indirectly estimating drain wet width data and consequently discharges using satellite imagery. Satellite-derived data have the potential for the establishment of recent (two decade) historical and contemporary hydrological conditions and for providing calibration data for hydrological models (Shepherd et al., 1999).

MONITORING OF LAND DRAINAGE

Most of the Egyptian drains carry water of relatively good quality that can be reused for irrigation purposes. The major drains in the delta area discharge their water either directly to the Mediterranean Sea, to Manzala Lake that is connected to the sea, or to be reused with the flow in El-Salam canal. Therefore, the accurate determination of their discharges at different locations is important to achieve a better management of the system. Unfortunately, at few locations, especially those near the outfall of each drain, it was not possible to derive such reliable discharge estimates. At such locations the stages were varying due to the tidal and/or wind effects. In some locations continuous velocity recorders were installed, and reliable estimates of the discharges were obtained by measuring the velocity at one point together with the corresponding stage. However, velocity recorders are rather expensive, their operation is frequently interrupted by the growth of shells, weeds, and/or any bulky floating object. Some techniques can be used to provide simple indicators of the discharges for such drains, and other sites where direct measures are difficult to be carried out, using some simple procedures from satellite images for management purposes.

REMOTE SENSING FOR WATER

Remote sensing is broadly defined as collecting and interpreting information about an object or a target without being in physical contact with it (Sabins, 1986). The development and deployment of manned and unmanned earth satellites since the sixties provided images of the earth. Remote sensing with its wide area spatial coverage and synoptic view provides an opportunity to assess the environmental changes of large areas and thus provides information that is not readily available by other means. There are numerous existing sensors that are suitable or providing invaluable data for validation of hydrological models and for monitoring hydrological conditions. These sensors vary mainly in (a) the frequency of the observations, which can vary from one over a few days to one every 16 days (e.g. Landsat TM) or more, depending on the satellite-sensor and the orbit, and (b) spatial resolution, which can range from 1 m (e.g. IKONOS) to 30 m (e.g. Landsat TM) or more, depending on the sensor. Space-borne radar altimetry has also been used to directly determine stage variations in large lakes (Birkett, 1995) and large rivers (Birkett, 1998), such as those in the Amazon basin. More recently, Alsdorf et al. (2000) improved the resolution of these remotely sensed measurements using interferometric processing of Multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the SIR-C (spaceborne imaging radar-C) mission to provide variations in floodplain

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water level response to changing river discharge within an error of the order of 0.1 m. Radar altimetry shows great promise for providing enhanced spatial monitoring of river water level changes, by using new satellite SAR missions such as the European Space Agency's ENVISAT RA 2 (radar altimeter) instrument. Techniques using radar imagery offer a major advantage over visible and near- infrared sensors for applications in hydrology due to their all-weather and day/night capabilities. However, these approaches still suffer from three main drawbacks when compared with those based on visible and, near-infrared sensors, such as Landsat TM. Firstly, the interpretation of SAR imagery is much less straightforward than for the visible/infrared range. In addition, the presence of wind-induced waves or emergent vegetation can roughen the surface of open water bodies, making them difficult to discriminate from other non-flooded land surface types when using single frequency and polarization SAR data. Finally, whereas the archives of visible and near-infrared sensors are almost twenty years long, most radar archives only date back as far as the late 1990s (Cudlip et al. 1990). Gupta & Banerji (1985) used Landsat MSS-derived data (reservoir areas) to monitor water volumes in water bodies in terrains of known topography. Two shortcomings of Landsat MSS imagery compared to Landsat TM are the coarser spatial resolution (80 m pixels compared to a Landsat TM pixel of 30 m) and the smaller number of spectral bands. Landsat MSS data have only four spectral bands, whereas TM imagery has seven, Table 1, covering the visible, near- infrared, mid-infrared and thermal infrared of the electromagnetic spectrum. It therefore provides extra information in the mid-infrared and thermal infrared bands. This multi-spectral nature of sensors such as Landsat TM provides an additional advantage over radar imagery. Of the seven spectral bands provided by Landsat TM, three (bands 4, 5 and 7, which have, respectively, wavelengths equal to 0.76-0.9 µm, 1.55-1.75 µm and 2.08- 2.35 µm) are particularly sensitive to the presence of water. However, with regards to remote sensing of water using Landsat TM data, most of the published studies are related to mapping the extent and frequency of river inundation. For example, Pope et al. (1992) used Landsat TM together with airborne synthetic aperture radar data to successfully identify and map the intermittent flood extent of meandering systems of imperfect surface drainage in an area north of Nairobi, Kenya.

SATELLITE-DERIVED EFFECTIVE WET WIDTH

SHYLOC software is a tool that is being used to analyze satellite images to derive information and create solutions for a specific problem by using definite criteria to integrate remotely sensed data with other spatial and tabular data for analysis and estimation of streams surface widths as indication of flows. The main step is to calculate the DN values, which is gathered during satellite sweeps, the onboard satellite sensors measure the intensity of the electromagnetic energy reflected or emitted from the earth's surface in definite range of electromagnetic waves called bands, and then it is stored on broad the satellite in form of numerical values (digital numbers or DNs), which are known as raw data. These DNs are stored on magnetic tapes and then transferred to computers for manipulation by specific software packages designed to achieve this object. Image processing and enhancement are basically ways to change and alter the original raw data to bring out visual details and multiple features of interest that were poorly expressed in the original data. Shepherd et al. (1999) are amongst the first to exploit the use of the partial pixel approach, which assumes that ditch-carrying image pixels consist of only two components; water and homogeneous land cover, (which can be grassland, bare soil or cultivated land), to measure

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surface water area using satellite imagery. Al-Khudltairy et al., (2001a), studied the partial pixel approach, which forms the basis of the SHYLOC software by using the ditch index to estimate total water surface area and thereafter dividing satellite-derived estimates of water surface areas by satellite-derived ditch lengths to deduce effective wet ditch widths at various spatial scales ranging from sections of drains to an entire drain system. The SHYLOC software estimates the proportion of water and non-water features creating the mixed reflectance from drain-carrying pixels, and converts them into appropriate surface areas. It is worthwhile noting that the satellite-derived wet drain width is an effective value due to the spatial resolution (30 m) of the Landsat TM images used in this study. In other words, estimates are not being made of actual water surface area, drain length nor wet drain width from Landsat imagery. Instead, the satellite-derived data are used to develop satellite-derived relationships between such data and available data.

METHODOLOGY Study data

Data required to complete this study vary from multi-temporal digital satellite data to hard copy maps and collected available flow data. Satellite data required to fulfill the needs to complete this study should be of high spatial resolution to allow identification of the various features of the area, and of high spectral sensitivity to enable discrimination of the major classes represented in the area of study. Five multi-spectral Landsat TM images, acquired for the area between June 2000 and December 2000, were used to evaluate the relationships between satellite-derived effective "wet" drain widths and available data of flows. Only two Landsat TM images were used in this study because they were cloudily free during the period that makes them more available for analysis processes, the first one is for July 2000 and the second one is for November 2000.

Data processing

Image processing and enhancement are basically ways to change and alter the original satellite raw data to bring out visual details. There is a diversity of image processing and enhancement techniques that can be applied in environmental studies. It is common that an image go through a series of such techniques in order to obtain a final product that has the necessary details intended for a specific application. The image processing was carried out by using ERDAS-Imagine, which is a raster geographic information and image processing software ERDAS is a popular system because it offers a set of powerful user friendly programs which can be based on personal computers, or can be integrated into an intelligent workstation, or utilize the power of a mini or mainframe computer. The ERDAS system is capable of performing most of the commonly known advanced techniques in image processing, such as image classification, filtering, image enhancement and image rectification. While digitizing the drain course was done using ArcView (a GIS software) through geocoding of geographic data into a computer as vector data with every point has which X and Y coordinate of the drain selected segment. All the images underwent geometric corrections using the ERDAS-Imagine software package. The images were geometrically corrected. Enhancement is the modification of an image to alter its impact on the viewer. Generally, enhancement distorts the original digital values. There are many types of remote sensing enhancements that are used for different applications like spectral enhancement, linear contrast enhancement, non-linear stretch enhancements and filtering. Nonlinear contrast stretch (histogram equalization) is the one used in this study.

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Application of SHYLOC to Bahr Hadous Drain

Bahr Hadous drain Figure 1 is the second largest drain, in the eastern delta drainage catchments, according to the carried flow. It receives a great importance due to its contribution, as a surface water source, for El Salam canal that delivers water from the Nile delta, crossing under Suez Canal, to the new reclaimed area in Sinai. The drain has seasonal water flow variation according to the cropping pattern in the served area. The drain shows an average flow of 22.5 Million m 3 for July 2000, while it reached up to 63 Million m 3 for November 2000. The SHYLOC software uses the digitized data of the drain and the Landsat image for both July and November 2000 to produce an effective wet width of the drain during those two dates.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

By executing the software the data of July 200 produced an effective wet width of 39.5 m, while those of November 2000 showed an effective width of 46.87. The temporal changes in satellite-derived effective wet drain widths are in agreement with flow data over time. The wet- derived width is an estimation of the surface water width on that time and is not the actual width, a statistical relation to be established for some measurements with the actual width to have a permanent relation between satellite derived one and filed data. These results proved that the partial pixel method could be used for providing information about some hydrological parameters such as surface water widths that could be correlated with field measurement data. The method was used in area where historical data was available, however it could also be used for areas where routinely monitoring are not exist or areas with difficulties for management activities.

Table 1 Characteristics of TM sensor

Bands

Wavelength

Resolution

(µm)

m

Band 1

0.45-0.52

30

Band 2

0.52-0.60

30

Band 3

0.63-0.69

30

Band 4

0.76-0.90

30

Band 5

1.55-1.75

30

Band 6

10.40-12.50

120

Band 7

2.08-2.35

30

Bahr Hadous Drain N
Bahr Hadous Drain
N

Figure 1 Landsat TM November 2000

REFERNCES

AI-Khudhairy, D. H. A., Thompson, J. R., Gavin, H. & Hamm, N. A. (1999) Hydrological modelling of a drained grazing marsh under agricultura1land use and the simulation of restoration management scenarios. Hydrol. Sci. J. 44(6),943-971. Al-Khudhairy, D. H. A., Hoffmann, V. & Leemhuis, C. (2001a) SHYLOC User Manual, Version 2.001, BUR 19745 EN. European Commission, Italy. Al-Khudhairy, D. H. A., Leemhuis, C., Hoffmann, V., Calaon R., Shepherd, I. M., Thompson, J. R., Gavin, H., Gasca- Tucker, D., Refstrup Sorenson, H., Refsgaard, A., Bilas, G., Zalidis, G. & Papadimos, D. (200Ib) Innovative technologies for scientific wetland management, onservation and restoration. In: Remote Sensing and Hydrology 2000 (ed. by M. Owe, K. Brubaker, J. Ritchie & A. Rango) (Ptoc. Santa Fe Symp., April 2000), 491--494.

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Alsdorf, D. E., Melack, J. M., Dunne, T., Mertes, L. A. K., Hess, L. L. & Smith, L. C. (2000) Interferometric radar measurements of water level changes on the Amazon flood plain. Nature 404 (6), 174-177. Birkett, C. M. (1995) The contribution of TOPEX/POSEIDON to the global monitoring of climatically sensitive lakes. J. Geophys. Res. 100(25), 179-204. Birkett, C. M. (1998) The contribution of the TOPEX (NP A) radar altimeter to the global monitoring of large rivers and wetlands. Wat. Resour. Res. 34 (5), 1223-1240. Cudlip, W., Ridley, J.K., and Rapley, C. G., (1990) The use of satellite radar altimetry for monitoring wetlands. In Proceedings 16 th Annual Conference of the Remote Sensing Society. Remote Sensing and Global Change. 19-21 September 1990, Swansea, Nottingham, UK, pp .207-216 Engman E. T. (1996) Remote sensing applications to hydrology: future impact. Hydrol. Sci. J. 41(4), 637-M8. Engman, E. T. & Gurney, R. J. (1991) Remote Sensing in Hydrology. Chapman and Hall, London, UK. Gavin, H. (2000) The hydrology of the Elmley Marshes, North Kent, UK. Pill Thesis, University of London, UK. Gupta, R. P. & Banerji, S. (1985) Monitoring of reservoir volume using Landsat data. J. Hydrol. 77, 159-170. Helwa, F., (1995) Environmental Impact of Drainage Water Reuse Projects on Northern lakes of Egypt, Proc. Regional Conference & International Symposium on Environmental hydrology, 10-12 October, 1995, Cairo, Egypt, 398-402. Hollis, G. E. & Thompson, J. R. (1998) Hydrological data for wetland management. C1WEMI2,

9-17.

Jensen, J.R.: Ramsey, E.W.; Mackey, H.E.; Christensen, E.L. and Shartiz, R.R. (1987) Inland wetland change detection using aircraft MSS. Journal of Photogrametric Engineering and Remote Sensing, Vol. 53, No. %, pp. 521-529. Mather, P. M. (1999) Computer Processing of Remotely-Sensed 1mages. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, West Sussex, UK. Pope, K. 0., Sheffner, E. J., Linthicum, K. J., Bailey, C. L., Logan, T. M., Kasichke, E. S., Baimey, K., Njogu, A. R. & Roberts, C. R. (1992) Identification of Central Kenyan rift valley fever versus vector habitats with Landsat TM and evaluation of their flooding status with airborne imaging radar. Remote. Sens. Environ. 40, 185-196. Research Systems (1999) ENVI User's Guide, Version 3.2. RS Boulder, Colorado, USA. Sabins, F. F. (1986) Remote sensing principals and interpretation. Second edition, W:H:

Freeman and company, New York. Shepherd, I. M., Al-Khudhairy, D., Kaiser, C., Thompson, J. R., Zalidis, G., Hadjiakiannakis, S. & Refsgaard, A. (1999) The use of "SHYLOC" for wetland restoration and management. In: Restoring Wetland Functions. (ed. by N. Kontos, V. Takavakoglou & S. Chatzigiannakis) (Proc. Tech. Meeting, Thessaloniki, Greece, 15-17 March 1998), 40-53. Tech. Bull. Greek Biotope Wetland Center, Thermi, Greece. (A MedWet publication). Whitelaw, A., howes, S., Fletcher, P., and Rast, M., (1994), Remote sensing applications in hydrological modeling. SPIE (International Society for Optical Engineering) Proceedings, 2314, 618-627. Zaghloul, E. A., ( 2002) Management System of Water Resources in Northeastern Nile Delta, Internal report , NARSS, Cairo, Egypt

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FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 Development of River

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 Development of River Nile Water Quality Information System
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 Development of River Nile Water Quality Information System

Development of River Nile Water Quality Information System

Noha Donia 1 and Dr. Hanan Farag 2

1. ABSTRACT

As the pollution problems are getting worse and the pressure on resources increases, transnational issues will multiply. So, the quality of the Nile discharges to the Mediterranean Sea through the main two branches (Damietta and Rossetta) should be managed through management information system. To investigate and control the pollution problem, diverse amount of information is required to arrange in form enables to store and retrieve the data. Therefore, River Nile water quality information system is designed and implemented as a tool for identification of the most common and important environmental problems of Nile river and determination of its risk factors. An integrated system for water quality data has been developed. The system includes the data about the water quality of the river, the pollution sources, the historical measurements, the water quality standards. The output of the system includes the calculation of the water quality index and the comparison with standards. Some statistical analysis has been conducted within the system. The aggregated information obtained from the system will be useful in preparing periodic reports to decision making. Graphical reports are also constructed for several purposes education, training, evaluation, and planning of environmental research.

2. INTRODUCTION

No doubt that now is the era of information as the world has become a small village. Nearly most of the things can be done electronically but the water quality data still relies

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on pens, papers and post and often several staff to book a single outpatient appointment, the manual methods have been incomplete, costly and slow. The use of computer based automation to support, supplement or replace all manual methods which reduce the cost and improve data management.

Creating a data model that accurately describes the structure of a set of data is a precursor to any correctly designed database (Dun and Bradstreet, 1995). Data modeling is the formal process of analyzing and reducing descriptions of information into separate data components, establishing the nature and direction of relationships between those components, and thereby building a structure for the data that automatically enforces the rules needed to maintain data integrity. A logical data model recognizes change as part of data management and provides a generic structure that permits later extensions without affecting the validity of data already in the database. A data model also is used to create and maintain documentation of all elements in the database, and thus provides a common language and reference for all users. In addition, a data model is used as a template for implementation of a physical database design and provides a guarantee that data entered into the database meet a predetermined level of detail and accuracy.

Water quality data is currently stored as data set or an ASCII delimited text file containing ambient water quality monitoring data associated with samples collected during a particular month or entire year. This type of data management system is inefficient both in terms of its structure and its accessibility to users. Each agency’s data are stored as individual monthly data sets with a predefined horizontal structure that precludes the entry of additional parameters and makes quality assurance procedures difficult to execute. Furthermore, there is a significant amount of redundant data. Each record in every data set contains information that pertains solely to the water quality station, not to the samples and resultant parameter values. Because of these weaknesses, it is essential to develop a relational database management system (RDBMS) for water quality data.

The water quality information System was developed to store water quality information. The developed system is a computer based system that is capable of storing retrieving, storing, processing, linking, distributing, and reproducing immediately on demand all needed water quality information. The purpose of this paper is to describe the Rosetta database by describing the data model and its physical implementation in MS Access.

3. REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Through the inventory of environmental information systems and applications using the state of the art information technology, Oracle Developer 6i and Oracle 8i , two systems were developed in this field. One of the systems was developed by Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA). This system was divided to two modules one of them to receive industrial data related to facilities and industrial activities either for the facility level or the detailed process level regarding quantity and quality. The second module was developed to receive data and information for environmental current situation of urban areas. The system is designed to manage and analyze industrial data (EEIS, 2001).

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Another system includes information on the observation wells within the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System. The groundwater database such as water level, draw downs, stratigraphy, hydraulic parameters water quality parameters. Developed Nubian Aquifer Regional Information System (NARIS) as an integrated regional information system among the countries sharing the aquifer thus ensuring the sharing, exchange and flow of information. The database was developed using the developed information technology, i.e. Oracle developer 6i and Oracle8i. (CEDARE, 2001).

An information system was developed (Farag,2004). The system is constructed database for all the surface stream type. Oracle software is the software used for developing the database and graphical user interface (GUI). River Nile is one of the streams taking into account, but the system is generalized which it is make the analysis of Nile water quality status is not specified. Table (1) is shown an inventory was done for environmental and water quality databases are existing in Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and National Water Research Center's institutes.

Table 1 Information Systems and Databases of MWRI and NWRC Institutes

Sector Name

Database and Information Systems Types

Remarks

Planning

GIS

database,

Nile

Forecasting

For pollution sources data base not linked with the water streams.

Sector, MWRI

database

and

pollution

sources

database

The Irrigation

Concerning mainly data on water levels in irrigation canals

Did not develop any GIS system. Most of data exists in simple spreadsheet format

Sector (IS),

MWRI

 

The Nile Water Affairs Sector

Data concerning mainly

with

The data are stored as hard copy and spread sheets without a well-designed irrigation database and information system.

discharged records collected by stations on the main Nile and its

 

tributaries outside Egypt.

 

The

Developing a DSS’s by analyzing vital information and providing this information to the decision maker.

 

Management

Information

Center

 

NWRC

Developing the Egyptian water map. This will be capable of displaying water quantity and quality.

 

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The Nile

Developed database system using FoxPro as DBMS software.

This database concerns mainly with water quantity data. The water quality data is stored in spreadsheets. Developing database concerning with the water quality and quality is under construction.

Research

Institute

 

The Drainage

The database for the water quality of the drains in delta is constructed using Access DBMS software.

 

Research

Institute

The Research

Water quality database of the monitored wells is constructed using SQL as DBMS and Visual Basic as the development language.

 

Institute for

Groundwater

(RIGW)

Strategic

The Egypt system database includes six main modules Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Groundwater, Demography and Irrigation. The database is constructed using Access software and linking to GIS software through Advanced Visual System (AVS)

 

Research Unit

(SRU)

Egypt system is considered as information system.

(Source: National Water Quality Monitoring and Availability, 2001)

4. STUDY AREA DESCRIPTION

The study region is located in Rosetta Branch one of the two Nile Branches. The Rosetta Branch extends about 240 km long the Delta Barrage at kilometer 954 to the north forming the West Delta Branch, the average width is about 200 m. Rosetta Branch constitutes an important waterway for the River Nile, see figure (1). In the Rosetta Branch there are two sources of pollution which potentially affect and deteriorate its quality of water (Farag, 1997).

The first source is the agricultural wastewater that comes from five agricultural drains located along the branch (Rahawy drain, Sabal drain, Tala drain, South Tahrir drain and Zaweit El-Bahr drain). The quantities and characteristics of wastewater from agricultural lands are highly variable. The most important pollutants found in runoff from agricultural areas are sediments, plant nutrients, crop residues, inorganic salts and minerals, chemical fertilizers and pesticides. In addition to that, these agricultural drains also receive domestic wastes from 55 towns and villages distributed along the branch. It is estimated that only 5% of the villages population have access to sanitary waste disposal facilities and it has been observed that these drains receive domestic wastewater from villages.

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The second source is located at Kafr El-Zayat city industrial zone. Kafr El-Zayat city is located on a sharp curved bend of Rosetta Branch between Km 120.1 and Km 123.8 measured from Delta Barrage. The Salt and Soda factory and the Maliya company are discharging their wastewater directly and continuously to this part of the river. Industrial wastewater are highly variable in both quality and quantity, depending mainly on the product produced. These may include toxic metals, chemicals, organic materials, and biological contaminants.

The high organic and solid contents of the above mentioned wastes significantly affected the water quality in Rosetta Branch as well as the groundwater aquifers in Giza. No water is released in this Branch except during the High Aswan Dam closure period, which is considered an important factor in increasing the pollution of this branch. Therefore, an adequate pollution control of the effluents in order to improve the water quality of the branch (donia, 2002).

The scope of work for developing the information system consists of two modules. First module handle the input and output of Water Quality data which have been collected from different sources. The objective of developing a water quality database for the Rosetta River Investigation was to compile information on specific parameters that define the nature of the stream and river environment: water chemistry data, and the physical parameters such as temperature, DO, and pH. Streamflow data are included as an integral part to interpretation of constituents reported in units of concentration. Data related to biotic measures were not compiled; however, the database could be expanded to include those parameters in the future. The module was built using Relational Database technology which enable different types of data and different operations to handle it. Second module was an interface module to other systems that is working in Water Quality data such as GIS modules and this will enable producing Water Quality maps.

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Figure 1 Schematic Diagram of Rosetta Branch and the sampling sites 5. THE WATER QUALITY

Figure 1 Schematic Diagram of Rosetta Branch and the sampling sites

5. THE WATER QUALITY DATABASE STRUCTURE

Development of the water quality database began with a series of discussions about water quality terms and the logical groupings and relationships between information elements. The major data objects were identified and ways were developed to represent them in an information system. When a general water quality concept could be realized in more than one data structure, the alternatives were presented, the implications of each were discussed, and the contextually accurate structure determined and incorporated into the model. Exceptions to data generalizations and required/optional data elements were identified, and the emerging model was evaluated and revised. This process continued in an iterative fashion until all the information elements implied in the water quality database requirements were set in the data structure, and the factual statements

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represented by the relationships between all data objects were approved as accurate by the workgroup. Because water quality specialists participated in the database design phase, they ensured that it contained those specific, categorical, and classification parameters needed to store, describe, validate, list, summarize, and aggregate their water- quality information, (Steven Tessler, 2002)

Building a database and communicating its features are enhanced by establishing certain rules of construction and standards for uniformity. Design principles provide standardized rules for creating and assembling the database and facilitate communication about how different elements of the database function together. The water quality database model was built using (MS Access) as shown in figures (2, 3) The physical implementation of the database was created in MS Access by providing table and field identities, discrete properties (field type, size, default values), relationships, and all key field constraints that ensure data integrity. The following sections describe the method used for the visualization of database objects, goals for table construction and establishing formal relationships, the rationale for extensive use of domain tables, and naming standards applied to tables and fields ,(USEPA, 1998).

5.1 Conceptual Design

Monitoring and testing results do not stand alone: the location, time, methodology, and other information also must be documented. The purpose of a database is to store information in a useful way. The developed database structure provides many avenues for complete and detailed data documentation, also all historical data are included in the database. These historical data may be used to evaluate trends or to supplement analysis when present data are not sufficient for evaluation.

5.2 The Relational Database

.

A relational database is a collection of formally described tables that can be edited or expanded in many different ways without having to reorganize the database tables. A new table can be added to the database without modifying all existing tables. Data are entered into tables based on subject and related by a key that makes the records within any given table unique. The columns of a table are called fields; the rows are called records.

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Figure 2. The Developed Water Quality Information System Main Screen Figure 3. The Sampling Site

Figure 2. The Developed Water Quality Information System Main Screen

Figure 2. The Developed Water Quality Information System Main Screen Figure 3. The Sampling Site Entry

Figure 3. The Sampling Site Entry Screen

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Information about each station (sample site) is recorded in the table TBLStation. Each record (row) contains information about one station. Fields include station name, a unique identification number, location description, latitude, longitude, etc. The table TBLSample contains information about samples collected and has a record for each sample; the fields include a unique sample number, date, time, method, and unique station number. These unique numbers or keys provide the link from one table to the next. Information about the station is linked to each sample taken at that station without repeating the station information for each sample. In the same way, each sample is related to the results table TBLResults by a sample number that is uniquely assigned when the sample and results records are added. Five-digit parameter codes are used to identify individual constituents analyzed in the sample. The parameter table TBLParameter_Codes then may be combined with the results table to view the full name for the parameter using the parameter code.

The process of removing redundant data from a relational database by separating information into smaller tables is called normalization. A normalized database generally improves performance, lowers storage requirements, and makes it easier to change the application to add new features. A data model is a conceptual representation of data structures required by a database. Data structures include data objects, associations between data objects, and rules that govern operations on the objects. The data model focuses on required data and how it should be organized rather than on what operations will be performed. A data model is independent of hardware or software constraints. Rather than try to represent the data as a database would see it, the data model focuses on representing the data as the user sees it in the real world. It serves as a bridge between the concepts that make up real-world events and processes, and the physical representation of those concepts in a database, (Eastman, Toledano, and Hutchinson, 1994).

5.3 Data Model Description

The developed information system data model describes water quality monitoring and data as a complex but related process. Figure 3 shows the conceptual representation of the data model implemented in the developed database. Monitoring stations are located along rivers, streams, and lakes. Selected stations are sampled as part of a specific monitoring project. Individual samples are collected and shipped to a laboratory for analysis of specified parameters. The results of the analysis are the numerical values of each parameter analyzed. Results also include the values of field-measured parameters, such as temperature and stream flow. Each arrow in the diagram designates a separate table in the developed database. Individual tables are related through unique identifiers. As described above, a sample is identified by a sample number, and attributes include information about the monitoring station and monitoring project in addition to sample descriptors such as sampling date, sampling depth, medium, etc. The sample number is

included in a table of laboratory and field data results linking the values to a particular

sample.

.

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Figure 3. Schematic Representation of The Developed Database Model Rivers as spatial features are part

Figure 3. Schematic Representation of The Developed Database Model

Rivers as spatial features are part of a geographical coverage, and the link to stations is established by spatial location. Laboratories are not included at this stage because the information is often unknown and not readily available from original data sources. The table TBLIDLocations is part of the database, but it is not included in any of these categories. It describes the source from which samples were taken (river, drains and factories). The information also is used for the database maintenance and batch data import. For discussion purposes, actual table names in the developed database are italicized and actual field names are within quotation marks.

A station is described in the table TblStation_Information. Station locations may be displayed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment using latitude and longitude, which were determined for each station from the original data source or from the station description and 1:100,000 scale topographic maps. In addition, the station location in the stream network is established by river section name. Other attributes include various station codes: “Station_ID” represents a unique identifier within the database. Other fields describe the station’s attributes. For example, “Station_Type” identifies by a code whether the station is located on a river, lake, wetland, canal, etc. The description of the code used in “Station_Type” is given in a lookup table, TBLSTation_Type, which provides the station’s “Primary_type” and “Secondary_type.” The lookup table also indicates whether the station is located on a natural or an artificial water body. A sample is described in the table TBLSample by the station where it was taken, sampling date and time, sampling depth and a monitoring project under which it was collected. Parameter codes are defined in the table TBLParameter_Codes, which includes a verbal description, both full and abbreviated, and reporting units. Additional related tables associate parameters with a parameter group. the main parameter group (basic inorganic, nutrients, metals, organics, etc.); and the third number indicates the constituent subgroup for example, nitrogen in the nutrients group, or pesticides in the organics group). The entry forms for these data are illustrated in figures (4 and 5).

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Figure 4. The Sampling Parameters Data Entry Screen Figure 5. The Standard of The Water

Figure 4. The Sampling Parameters Data Entry Screen

Figure 4. The Sampling Parameters Data Entry Screen Figure 5. The Standard of The Water Quality

Figure 5. The Standard of The Water Quality Parameters Screen

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A project is described in the table TBLProjects_Programs, which includes a project name or title for which monitoring was performed, a code for the monitoring organization, project study area, project purpose, beginning and ending dates, and contact information. The organization is described by its full and abbreviated names, and category. The address, contact person and phone number, and the organization

5. 4 Statistical Module

Statistical analysis is one of the analysis tool applied in the Nile water quality information system. The system interface enables accessing statistical software applications as statistica 6 software. Possible outliers in data were identified using statistical methods. Data are first evaluated separately for consistency within an individual sampling site. Statistical evaluation of individual datasets used the following techniques within the statistics software:

1. Basic statistics (mean, median, and standard deviation)

2. Probabilistic distribution plot, quantile plot, test for normal or log-normal distributions

3. Time-series plots

4. Scatter plots (change of parameter with flow etc.)

5. Statistical tests for suspected outliers

Multivariate analysis technique which is defined as the analysis of multiple variables in a single relationship or a set of relationships can be applied on the stored data. Another definition of the multivariate measurements is the use of two or more variables as indicators of a single composite measure. The multivariate technique was used for determining the indicator parameters based on the pollution source type.

From the historical data that is stored in the information system database, the user selects the period of work the type of pollution source and presses the statistical analysis button the statistica 6. software environment, multivariate analysis (Factor analysis) is ready through running the programmed multivariate script. Changing the number of the variate group and the loading value is allowed based on the result of the model. The drainage waste which is coming from the agricultural drains discharged to the Nile is selected for applying the model. Two and three principal component is examined for 100 records of 25 agricultural out fall drains and 16 measured variables. The results of the three principal components are more reliable. The first variate consists of 7 variables which are more significance. The second one consists of tree and the last variate consists of 2 parameters. Figure (6) shows one of the analysis output , the three principal factors and the significance of the parameters in each principal component.

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Figure 6. Principal Component Analys is OutPut (Statistics Module) 6. IMPLEMENTATION AND NAVIGATION Two queries

Figure 6. Principal Component Analysis OutPut (Statistics Module)

6. IMPLEMENTATION AND NAVIGATION

Two queries have been designed and included with the developed database. These queries are recommended for users with some experience with relational databases and Microsoft Access and may be used as examples for construction of additional queries. Advanced users are encouraged to build custom queries.

6.1 Comparison With Standards at Specific Location (Query 1)

The user can get information about the locations exceeding the standard (national and international) for all groups of water quality data (river, drain discharge and industrial effluent). The comparison was implemented through a module built within the system. The output of the query is illustrated in figure (7).

6.2 Historical Data of a Parameter at Specific Location (Query 2)

The user can get information about the trend of pollution in a certain location using the historical data at these locations. His module can be implemented for all groups of water quality data (river, drain discharge and industrial effluent). The output of the query is illustrated in figure (8).

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Figure7. The Comparison With the Standard (Query 1) Figure 8. The Site Water Quality Historical

Figure7. The Comparison With the Standard (Query 1)

Figure7. The Comparison With the Standard (Query 1) Figure 8. The Site Water Quality Historical Data

Figure 8. The Site Water Quality Historical Data (Query 2)

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7.

CONCLUSION

The Nile water quality information system database was successfully developed and has the following features:

The Database is constructed from a conveyance-based data model rather than a site based data model, thus promoting and encouraging a water network approach to water-quality data storage and investigation.

Nile information system handles both single-user and aggregate-user water-use data in a single data model.

The Nile database system is implemented as a stand-alone (and portable) database in Microsoft® Access (MS Access) and therefore accessible to a large number of potential users. The design flexability is enabled to customize for other relational database system.

Statistical module is used for developing a reliable water quality indicators based on pollution source.

The database is fully open to customization and extension and can be made available via the World Wide Web to anyone with access to Internet browser software.

8. REFERENCES

CEDARE, 2001, Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE). Technical report “Nubian Aquifer Regional Information System)”, (NARIS), version1,2001. Donia, N. S., 2002, Water Quality Control of Rosetta Branch, Unpublished Ph.DThesis, Institute of Environmental Studies and Researches, Ain Shams University. Dun and Bradstreet, 1995, Dun and Bradstreet business information database: Murray Mill, N.J. Eastman, R., J. Toledano, and C. Hutchinson, 1994. The Malawi National Environmental Information System. Submitted to USAID, Lilongwe. EEIS 2001, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Egyptian Environmental Information System project (EEIS), “Industrial Pollution Information System” Briefing Document, Version 1.1, January 2001. Farag, H. A., 1997. "Design of Water Quality Information System", Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.

Farag, H. A., 2004. "A Methodology Applied to Water Quality Management for Surface Water" Unpublished PhD. Thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.

Steven Tessler, 2002 Data Model and Relational Database Design for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS), Geological Survey Open-File Report 01-359, 70 p., U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey, Northborough, Massachusetts,. USEPA, 1998, Region III, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Water Quality Database Design and Data Dictionary RJO Enterprises, Inc.

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FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 WATERSHED LOADING

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 WATERSHED LOADING MODELS AND EXAMPLES OF RECENT
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 WATERSHED LOADING MODELS AND EXAMPLES OF RECENT

WATERSHED LOADING MODELS AND EXAMPLES OF RECENT APPLICATIONS

Tanik, A., Gurel, M., Baloch, M.

ITU, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul /Turkey

ABSTRACT

Watershed modelling has become a vital tool in water quality research and management practices with the rapid advancement in computer and information technologies. Early watershed models were designed for the estimation of water quantities in engineering applications such as flood forecasting, urban storm water management and many other water resources planning activities. Since the early 1990s, an increasing emphasis on the development of computer interfaces and application of Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques signified the common applications of various models. Majority of these models are simulation models for non-point source pollution that can be divided into urban run-off and rural run-off models. In this paper, the importance of watershed modelling in the field of integrated watershed management aiming sustainability is emphasized, continued with brief information on historical progress of modelling approaches. The classification and types of models is then described, typical urban and rural watershed loading models are referred. Although watershed models also cover water quality models, the study focuses on only the loading models. Some loading model applications from various countries selected among those cited in literature from year 2001 onwards constitute the final section of the paper. The objective of the study is to put forth the importance of using such models and state their most recent application areas on selected examples together with the outcomes.

Keywords: non-point source (NPS) pollution, loading models, urban run-off models, rural run-off models, watershed, watershed models.

INTRODUCTION

Watersheds are regions or areas with natural hydrological boundaries draining to a water body. They include the surface and groundwater, soils, vegetation, and animals in the drainage basin, as well as humans and their anthropogenic impacts (Reimold, 1998).The integration, coordination, and management of human activities in a sustainable manner within

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the boundaries of a watershed with the basic aim of protecting both the land and water resources depend on a comprehensive understanding of the components of watersheds and their interactions. The watershed approach includes the whole urban-rural landscape. In many areas of the world, the changes in urban and rural areas threaten the entire economic and social system, and the differences in land-use activities significantly impact the quality of the land and water resources. The relative stability and function of a watershed is determined by the rate of water inflow and outflow, pollutants, and activity patterns of the living organisms. To understand the behaviour of pollutants arising from both point and non-point sources and water quality issues addressed in watershed management and planning activities necessitates the use of watershed models. As non-point sources of pollutants are temporally and spatially uncertain and difficult to analyze, such models particularly aid to better identify and define them. Therefore, watershed modelling has become a vital tool in water quality research and management practices with the rapid advancement in computer and information technologies. Watershed models enable to quantify the impacts of current, possible and planned actions on pollution loadings and water quality. They are essential tools to address the functions and conflicts in a watershed. Therefore, they provide an understanding of the processes involved in especially the non-point source pollution. They can generate various alternatives according to the specifications of the watershed which may also give rise for the planning activities, and the impact of human-induced activities on the environment may be easily assessed via models. Besides, the database used in the model will also be able to answer and clarify many problems encountered in the watershed by evaluating the available data and compiling them in an appropriate format. Early watershed models were designed for the estimation of water quantities in engineering applications such as flood forecasting, urban storm water management and many other water resources planning activities such as reservoir design and water supply (Chen, 2001). Nowadays, there appears a variety of models applied for different processes to better identify the pollution sources and therefore, it becomes important to employ them for enacting necessary protective measures for the conservation of land and water resources of a watershed. In this paper, a brief historical background of watershed modelling will be mentioned followed by information on classification and types of watershed models. Although watershed models include both the loading and water quality models, only loading models covering urban and rural run-off models are mentioned in the paper. The aim of this paper is to outline some of the leading watershed models and to emphasize on how rapidly this field develops in parallel to the development of computer and computational technology. Some selected recent model applications will also be referred.

THE HISTORY OF WATERSHED MODELING

The historical background of watershed modelling can be divided into three stages (Chen,

2001);

1. During the mid and last 1960s, hydraulic computations and conceptual water balance

algorithms on a digital platform had been implemented. The classical and long-lasting models like SWM, HEC-1 and SWMM laid down the theoretical and technical basis for constructing conceptual hydrologic models which have become important tools for watershed management and non-point source pollution control and planning.

2. As modelling techniques became more sophisticated and rapid advancement of personal

computers, numerous watershed modelling system were developed through the 1980s.

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HSPF, CREAMS, GLEAMS, AGNPS and ANSWERS in USA and SHE and TOPMODEL in Europe can be given as examples.

3. Since the early 1990s, the third stage has been signified by the increasing emphasis on the

development of computer interfaces and application of GIS techniques. Nowadays, there exist an extensive literature on watershed modelling and a number of excellent computer programs available both commercially and in the public domain for a wide range of watershed management purposes. The field is in a constant state of development, with improvements continually being made to existing models and new models frequently being introduced.

CLASSIFICATION OF WATERSHED MODELS

There are many categories under which watershed models are classified. Some of them are listed below (ESCAP-UN, 1997):

The watershed model may be categorized as; - Simulation Models which are set up to simulate the behaviour of watersheds, catchments, river basins and various kinds of water reservoir management systems. They are used to predict the performance and behaviour of the resource systems when various inputs are in operation. - Optimization Models which seek to find the best way of manipulating, designing or operating a water source system, they are essentially decision-making models.

The watershed model may be categorized as;

- Event model which represents an event like a flood that may last from a few minutes to

several days.

- Continuous or sequential model that is operated for a long period like 100 years. These models are used for predicting long-term catchment yield or long-term behaviour of water quality parameters.

The watershed model may be;

- Conceptual model based on a set of equations which models the physical, chemical and biological processes in watershed systems.

- Empirical model formulated from the relationships between system input and system

output. The processes within the system are not taken into consideration.

Model may be categorized as;

- Deterministic model which has a fixed relationship between the inputs and outputs, so

that the re-running of the model with the same input will produce the same outputs.

- Stochastic model that contains some random elements that re-running of the model will produce variable outputs.

Model may be categorized as;

- Dynamic model that is time-dependent where the inputs and parameters can change with time.

- Steady-state model where the inputs and coefficients are constant in time.

Model may be categorized as;

- Generic model that can be applicable for a wide range of watersheds.

- Site-specific model that is improved for a specific watershed.

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TYPES OF MODELS

The models for integrated watershed management can be divided into “receiving water quality models” and “loading models” (Novotny, 2003). Receiving water models simulate the movement and spread of materials through water bodies. An overview of some public domain models for conventional pollutants will not be covered in this paper. It will be limited to introducing loading models. Loading models simulate and estimate pollution generation at the source and its movement from the source to the receiving water body. Such models are applied both to urban and rural (agricultural) areas to determine non-point source (NPS) pollution. With the achievements in the past decades, it is now much easier to allocate contribution of waste loads from point sources; however, non-point sources are still a challenge to assess because of the sophisticated process and mechanism they undergo. Therefore, NPS modelling, as an essential component of watershed modelling, is a vital tool utilized for estimation of hydrologic rainfall/ run-off transformation process with associated erosion, pollution build- up and wash- off and other quality components. There are numerous watershed models in use; especially developed within the last decade, making it impossible to outline them all. Therefore, in this section some of the oldest but the leading NPS models both urban and rural will be briefly introduced. In the last section on examples of recent applications, studies conducted between years 2001-2005 are referred. It will be seen that these recent models are not necessarily the leading models explained in this section.

Urban Models

Most widely known urban models are mentioned below (USEPA, 1991; Novotny, 2003). DR3-QUAL: It is a version of United States Geological Survey (USGS) Distributed Routing Rainfall Run-off Model which includes quality simulations. Run-off generation and routing use the kinematic wave method, and it has a parameter for estimation assistance. Quality simulation is made by build-up and wash-off functions. HSPF: the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran developed by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a simulation model for prediction of run-off from upland watersheds. This model is a development of Standford Watershed Model (SWM) introduced in 1960s. It is a comprehensive, continuous, distributed model which includes a variety of hydrological, fluvial, alluvial, chemical and biological processes. It incorporates the watershed scale Agricultural Runoff Model (ARM) and urban NPS into a basin-scale analysis framework that includes fate and transport in one dimensional stream channels. It is a large model and requires considerable effort when applied to a watershed. The model is a part of the USEPA’s BASINS modelling system. MOUSE: Modelling of Urban Sewers is developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute in cooperation with laboratories and private software firms. Model includes modules for generation of run-off from rainfall, sewer routing and a simple routine that uses the constant concentration approach. STORM: Storage, Treatment, Overflow, Run-off Model, developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centre in 1974, is the first use of continuous simulation in urban hydrology, but the centre does not provide user support or further development and maintenance of the program. This model is first applied to the San Francisco Master Plan for pollution abatement. It utilizes simple run-off coefficient and unit hydrograph methods for generation of hourly run-off depths from hourly rainfall inputs. The build-up and wash-off formulations are used for simulation of six pre-specified pollutants.

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SWMM: Storm Water Management Models is developed by USEPA as a single-event model developed in 1971. It has been applied to urban hydrologic quantity-quality problems worldwide. It is maintained and updated continuously. Later versions of SWMM can simulate backwater, surcharging, pressure flow and looped connections and it also has various options for quality simulation. SWMM is segmented into Run-off, Transport, Extrans, Storage/Treatment and Statistical blocks for rainfall run-off, routing and statistical segments. WALLINGFORD: It is developed by Hydraulic Research Ltd. in Great Britain. It consists of a cluster of models, which includes run-off generation from rainfall (WASSP), simple and fully dynamic sewer routing (WALLRUS and SPIDA) and a quality routine (MOSQITO). WASS-QUAL: It is developed in 1987 by Hydraulic Research Ltd in Great Britain. The model is a result of a joint research effort of the Water Research Centre and other British institutions. It can be done either in a continuous or single event mode. It should not be mistaken with the WASP model of the USEPA.

Rural (Agricultural) Models

Most widely known rural models are mentioned below (USEPA, 1991; Novotny, 2003). Some of the previously mentioned urban models like HSPF can also be used for modelling of agricultural watersheds, primarily erosion and movement of particulate pollutants.

AGNPS: Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Model is developed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service (ARS) to estimate run-off quality on nutrients and sediments and to compare the effects of various pollution control practices. The AGNPS model includes the simulation of sediments and nutrients from agricultural watersheds for a single-storm event or for continuous simulation. The model does not simulate pesticides. In this model, watersheds are divided into square working areas. These areas are examined as sub-watersheds individually. The results of the model can be compared with other watersheds to evaluate the sources of water quality problems and to investigate possible solutions. It also includes point sources like feedlots, wastewater treatment plant discharges, stream bank and erosion. In AGNPS, pollutants are routed from the top of the watershed to the outlet in a series of steps. The pollutant transport portion is divided into two, which one is the soluble pollutants and the other part performed using relationships between chemical concentration, sediment yield and run-off volume. ANSWERS: Areal Non-point Source Watershed Environment Response Simulation is developed by the Agricultural Department of Purdue University. It is an event-based, distributed parameter model, which predicts the hydrologic and erosion response of agricultural watersheds. It is designed to calculate peak flow rates and total surface run-off for single events. Its application is made by dividing the watershed into a grid of square elements. The area of this element is between 1 and 4 hectares. The output of one element becomes an input of the adjacent element. In each element, the model simulates the processes of interception, infiltration, surface storage, surface flow, subsurface drainage, sediment drainage, sediment detachment, transport and deposition. Nutrients are simulated by using correlation between chemical concentration, sediment yield and run-off volume. ARM: Agricultural Run-off Management Model is a version of the HSPF model which can be run independently or included in HSPF. It simulates run-off, sediment, pesticides, and nutrient loadings from surface and sub-surface sources. It requires extensive calibration. CREAMS: Chemicals, Run-off and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems is developed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service (ARS) for the analysis of agricultural best management practices for pollution control. This model is a field scale model which consists of three separate sub-models of hydrology, erosion/sedimentation and chemistry connected with fields. Run-off volume, peak flow,

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evapotranspiration, soil water content and percolation are based on day. Daily sediment and erosion yield are estimated at the edge of the field. Nutrients and pesticides are simulated, storm load, average concentration of sediment associated and dissolved chemicals are determined in the run-off, sediment and percolation through the root zone. By this model, user defined activities can also be simulated. Aerial spraying, soil incorporation of pesticides, animal waste management and agricultural best management practices can be evaluated as user defined activities. The model has the capability of simulating up to 20 quality components at a time. GLEAMS: Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems is developed and maintained by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service (ARS). The three main components in the model are hydrology, erosion/sediment yield and infiltration. Precipitation is partitioned between surface run-off and water balance on a daily basis. The soil is divided into layers, with a minimum three and a maximum of twelve layers with various thickness used for water and pesticide routing. The input data requirements for CREAMS-GLEAMS simulations are extensive and quite detailed. PRZM: Pesticide Root Zone Model is developed by USEPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Athens, Georgia. It is a one-dimensional, dynamic, compartmental model that can be used to simulate chemical movement in unsaturated zone and below the plant root zone. The model is divided into hydrology, which is composed of run-off and erosion and chemical transport. Water movement within the unsaturated zone is simulated by field capacity, wilting point and saturation water content. Irrigation applications are also used in the model. Pesticide applications are considered in the chemical transport simulation. Dissolved, adsorbed and vapour-phase concentrations in the soil are estimated by considering the processes of pesticide uptake by plants, surface run-off, erosion, decay, volatilization, wash- off, advection, dispersion and retardation. PRS: Pesticide Run-off Simulator developed by Computer Sciences Corporation for USEPA Office of Pesticide and Toxic Substances is based on SWRRB Model. Pesticide application can be removed by atmospheric loss, wash-off by rainfall and leaching into the soil. Pesticide yield is divided into a soluble fraction and an adsorbed phase based on an enrichment ratio. The objective of this model is to simulate pesticide run-off and adsorption onto the soil in a small agricultural watershed. SWRRB: Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins was developed by US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service (ARS) for evaluation of basin-scale water quality. It is developed by modifying the CREAMS daily rainfall hydrology model for application to large, complex, rural basins for simulation of weather, hydrology, crop growth, sedimentation, nutrients and pesticide movement. The pollutant transport portion is subdivided into two; one part handling soluble pollutants and the other part handling sediment attached pollutants. Prediction of nutrient yields from rural basins is adopted from CREAMS. The amount of pesticide reaching the ground is based on a pesticide application efficiency factor. Pesticide wash-off is based on threshold rainfall amount and calculated by empirical equations. Pesticide decay from the plants and soil are predicted by using exponential functions based on the decay constant in the soil and half-life of pesticide on residue. TEHM: the Terrestrial Ecology and Hydrology Model describes soil-plant water fluxes, interception, infiltration and storm and groundwater flow. Hydrologic part of the model is from the Wisconsin Hydrologic Transport Model (WHTM). It is a modification of Standford Watershed Model (SWM) and simulates soluble chemical movement, litter and vegetation interception of the chemical, and erosion of the sorbed chemicals, chemical degradation in soil and litter, and sorption in top layers of the soil.

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UTM-TOX: Unified Transport Model for Toxic Materials developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the USEPA, Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances. UTM-TOX is a multimedia model that combines hydrologic, atmospheric and sediment transport. It provides a detailed simulation of soil–plant processes. The Atmospheric Transport Model (ATM) portion of UTM-TOX is a Gaussian plume model that calculates dispersion of pollutants emitted from point, area or line sources. WEPP: Water Erosion Prediction Project is a new generation water erosion model developed by the ARS’s National Erosion Research Laboratory. It is a continuous simulation model, although it can be run on a single-storm basis. By continuous simulation of the model, the important processes of erosion prediction are realized as a function of time. The output of the continuous simulation is the time integrated estimates of erosion.

RECENT APPLICATIONS OF VARIOUS NON-POINT SOURCE (NPS) POLLUTION MODELS

Some selected case studies from different countries on loading model applications will be briefly referred in this section.

GLEAMS model was used to predict the soil and nutrient losses from an agricultural field in Eastern Thailand. In this study, results show that GLEAMS is capable of producing reasonable prediction of soil loss, run-off nitrogen and phosphorus losses and their concentration in the crop root zone within the agreed variability of measured data (Deb et al.,

2001).

A water quality component was developed for WATFLOOD (a flood forecast hydrological model) to deal with sediment and nutrient transport. The model uses a distributed group response unit approach for water quantity and quality modeling. Runoff, sediment yield and soluble nutrient concentrations are calculated separately for each land cover class, weighted by area and then routed downstream. The model was integrated with the GIS technology and applied to Duffin Creek Watershed that drains into Lake Ontario, 10 km east of Metropolitan Toronto, Canada. The model is calibrated for the hydrologic response and validated for the water quality component. In almost all the cases it was found that the predicted sediment and nutrient yields agreed reasonably well with the measured data (Leon et al., 2002). An integrated model approach which is a combination of general hydrogeological residence time model WEKU and nitrogen balance model to quantify the nitrogen loads entering the surface waters via the groundwater path was applied to the German part of the Elbe River having a catchment size of 150.000 km 2 . (Wendland et al., 2002) That model is validated by the results of the MONERIS (Modelling Nutrient Emissions in the River Systems) (Behrendt et al., 1999). At the end of the study, it is understood that the groundwater residence time and the amount of denitrified nitrogen can vary strongly with the site in which the nitrogen enters the saturated zone. For the estimation of storm water quality and quantity in urban areas, the ILLUDAS (Illinois Urban Drainage Area Simulator) was modified and added to the water quality model. As a result, ILLUDAS-WQ was developed for the estimation of combined sewer overflow pollution resulting from storm water run-off. The model is based upon the pollutant run-off unit load and wash-off concept. This model was applied to two separate watersheds in the Chongju and Daejon metropolitan areas in Korea. The application results show that the runoff correction coefficient and wash-off coefficient depend on the storm event size and watershed area. It is a very useful model for estimation of pollutograph from urban watershed during rainfall (Lee et al., 2002).

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The GIS-oriented model MODIFFUS (Model to estimate diffuse nutrient inputs into surface waters) was developed to estimate the diffuse nutrient inputs into 38 Swiss hydrological river catchments (Prasuhn and Mohni, 2002). The model firstly generated the water fluxes like surface run-off, leaching, deposition etc., secondly the nutrient inputs via various pathways were attained according to land use, crop rotation, nutrient content in soil and etc, and lastly they are shown as maps with the help of the GIS. Simulation experiments for analyzing nitrogen (N) leaching from arable land were performed using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) for a set of representative conditions in the Saale basin (23 687 km 2 ) in Central Europe. The relative importance of natural and anthropogenic factors affecting nitrogen leaching for the Saale River basin was as follows: (1) soil, (2) climate, (3) fertilization rate and (4) crop rotation. The simulation experiments provide a basis for a fuzzy-rule based metamodel approach, which aims at rapid water quality assessment of large regions (Krysanova and Haberland, 2002). HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN) and the SMR (Soil Moisture Routing) models were applied to a 102 km 2 watershed in the upper part of the Irondequoit Creek basin in central New York State, USA over a seven-year simulation period (Johnson et al., 2003). Despite their differences in structure and representation of hydrologic processes, the two models simulated stream flow with almost equal accuracy. HSPF simulated winter stream flow slightly better than SMR as a result of its complex snowmelt routine, whereas SMR simulated summer flows better than HSPF as a result of its runoff and base flow processes. A case study for Posan Reservoir which is an off-stream reservoir located in North Taiwan was conducted through AGNPS to simulate NPS pollution and BMP (Best Management Practices). The four major objectives considered are cost, phosphorus load, sediment load and equity. The models developed in that study are intended to support to decision-making analysis and estimates for funding allocation for both strategies (Kao and Chen, 2003). The process-oriented model HERMES was used to simulate the different combinations of soil type, groundwater level, weather conditions and crop rotation to evaluate different options of land use, agricultural and water management to reduce nitrogen emissions and enhance water and nutrient retardation in the Elbe river basin, Germany (Kersebaum et al.,

2003).

An ArcGIS tool, named ArcCN-Runoff, was developed to facilitate watershed-modelling work (Zhan and Huang, 2004). Unlike raster mode, ArcCN-Runoff is designed for any shape of polygon in order to keep irregular boundaries unaltered. Application of dissolving techniques reduces processing time significantly. The tool can be used to design and manage hydraulic structures and projects, to estimate future discharges, and to predict watershed response associated with changes in topography, soil, land use, and land cover (e.g. urbanization). It was used for estimation of runoff in two USA counties, Lyon and Osage, Kansas as case studies. The GIS-based Decision Support System (DSS)Drainage Runoff Input of Pesticides in surface water, DRIPS—was developed on behalf of the German EPA (UBA) for exposure assessment of agriculturally used pesticides in surface waters. The tool estimates the quantity of pesticide input from non-point sources via surface runoff, tile drainage and spray drift. A graphical user interface (GUI) was created to provide users of the DSS with easy access to the model algorithms. Results are available as grid cell maps for the territory of Germany; featuring monthly catchment specific pesticides in surface waters (PECsw) values (Ropke et al., 2004). TopManage a modelling tool was developed to demonstrate the hydrological drivers of diffuse pollution. It adopts a new visualization methodology that allows field characterization

487

to be undertaken in a systematic manner by combining high resolution mapping and terrain analysis (Heathwaite et al., 2004). TopManage is used, along with the field runoff characterization, to help identify CSAs (Critical Source Areas). It was applied to three examples of UK farming practices: (1) a sloping arable field dominated by overland flow from bare soil, (2) a drained arable field, and (3) a field dominated by subsurface flow (with some drains) where runoff in the local ditch was simulated. The Library of Hydro-Ecological Modules (LHEM) was designed to create flexible landscape model structures that can be easily modified and extended to suit the requirements of a variety of goals and case studies. The LHEM includes modules that simulate hydrologic processes, nutrient cycling, vegetation growth, decomposition, and other processes, both locally and spatially. Using The Library of Hydro-Ecological Modules (LHEM) and Spatial Modeling Environment (SME) the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) was built to simulate fundamental ecological processes in the watershed scale driven by temporal (nutrient loadings, climatic conditions) and spatial (land use patterns) forcings (Voinov et al., 2004). Model results for the Patuxent river watershed, Maryland USA show good agreement with data for several components of the model at several scales. Aggregated Plot Models were developed to emphasize links between economic policy changes and environmental outcomes at a landscape scale. Stylized farm models were used to predict changes in household land allocation arising from agricultural policy changes, with explicit incorporation of biophysical feedback from erosion outcomes to agricultural productivity and subsequent crop choices made by optimizing farmers. Outcomes were combined to predict aggregate economic and environmental impacts. The method was applied to data from the Manupali watershed having an area of approximately 60,000 ha, in the Philippine province of Bukidnon (Shively and Coxhead, 2004). A framework was built within the AgriBMPWater project to compare the impact of BMPs in terms of hydrological effectiveness, costs for the farmers and society, and their acceptability by farmers on eight European watersheds. The hydrology of the watersheds was described and modelled using different watershed models. The hydrologic models implemented include SWAT with some modifications, on French and on the Italian watersheds, BMP1top on one French watershed, HAPSU in Finland, EUROSEM, STOTRASIM in Austria, GLEAMS in Italy, POWER in France, Italy, and Austria, EIQ in Norway (Turpin et al., 2005). A DEM-based Overland Flow Model was developed for computation of surface run-off from isolated storm events. The proposed model was calibrated and verified, using rainfall and runoff data collected on the Banha catchment in India (Jain and Singh, 2005). The model operates on a cell basis and takes cell physical information on topography, land use and soil from a GIS. The catchment DEM is utilized in the model to generate computational flow direction and flow routing sequencing for each of the discredited cell of the catchment. Effects of three soil and water conservation practices were assessed using a crop growth simulation model (WOFOST), a Nutrient Monitoring Model (NUTMON) and a hydrological erosion model (LISEM), which were applied at field, farm and regional scale, respectively in the highlands of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia (Hengsdijk et al., 2005). An integration of an agricultural economic model, RAUMIS (The Regional Agricultural and Environmental Information System) with hydrological models GROWA98 and WEKU was developed and used to quantify and assess impacts of alternative nitrogen reduction measures (Gomann et al., 2005). Two German river basins namely The Ems and a sub- catchment of the Rhine were selected as study areas in order to cover a wide range of different landscape units with different hydrological hydro-geological and socio-economic characteristics.

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CONCLUSIONS

The paper attempts to make an overall review of watershed models in order to provide key information on watershed models as a basis for achieving better planning of land-use and water resources development. The concept of sustainable management and planning is gaining widespread acceptance as a vision of how humans function in an ecosystem. It is clear that the current practices need to be enriched with new strategies to establish sustainable utilization of watershed in a controlled manner. Fate and transport of especially pollutants arising from non-point sources and protection of water bodies from pollution need to be clearly defined and understood by public so as to take protective measures against further deterioration of the environment. At this point, the need of using watershed models seems to be an obligation in the field of integrated watershed management. Watershed models and GIS are the two important tools in the assessment of natural resources. These tools also aid to identify the priority problems encountered in the watershed, and to implement and evaluate sustainable management plans and actions. The iterative nature of both techniques encourages partners to set goals and targets, and make progress based on available information which at the same time enables continuous analysis and queries in such areas. As seen from the content of the paper, watershed modelling gained interest especially within the past few decades in parallel to rapid development in computer technologies. After giving brief information on the classification and types of models, and outlining the universally accepted basic watershed loading models on urban and rural areas addressing especially non-point source pollution problems, application of various new models are mentioned to provide useful information on the most recent case studies from different countries of the world to draw the attention of those related in the field of integrated watershed management and to emphasize on the significance of the topic.

REFERENCES

Behrendt, H., Huber, P., Kornmilch, M., Opitz, D., Schmoll, O., Scholz, G., and Uebe, R. (1999). Nutrient Emissions into River basins of Germany, Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin.

Chen, Y.D. (2001). Watershed Modelling for Non-point Source Water Quality Simulation:

History, Recent Development and New Trends, 5 th International Conference on Diffuse/Non- point Pollution and Watershed Management, Milwaukee, Proceedings in CD Rom, IWA, June 2001, Session 16.1.

Deb, S.K., Lida, T., and Loof, R. (2001). Application of GLEAMS Model to Predict Soil and Nutrient Losses from the Agricultural Field in Thailand, 5 th International Conference on Diffuse/Non-point Pollution and Watershed Management, Milwaukee, Proceedings in CD Rom, IWA, June 2001, Session 16.5.

ESCAP-UN (1997). Guidelines and Manual on Land-Use Planning and Practices in Watershed Management and Disaster Reduction, (ST/ESCAP/1781), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations, 133 pages.

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Gömann, H., Kreins, P., Kunkel, R., and Wendland, F. (2005). Model Based Impact Analysis of Policy Options Aiming at Reducing Diffuse Pollution by Agriculture-A Case Study for the River Ems and a Sub-Catchment of The Rhine, Environmental Modeling & Software, 20,

261-271.

Heathwaite, A.L., Quinn, P.F., and Hewett, C.J.M. (2004). Modelling and Managing Critical Source Areas of Diffuse Pollution from Agricultural Land using Flow Connectivity Simulation, Journal of Hydrology, xx, 1–16 (article in press).

Hengsdijk, H., Meijerink, G.W., and Mosugu, M.E. (2005). Modelling the Effect of Three Soil and Water Conservation Practices in Tigray, Ethiopia, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 105, 29–40.

Jain, M.K., and Singh, V.P. (2005). DEM-based Modelling of Surface Runoff Using Diffusion Wave Equation, Journal of Hydrology, 302, 107–126.

Johnson, M.S., Coon, W.F., Mehta, V.K., Steenhuis, T.S., Brooks, E.S., and Boll, J. (2003). Application of two Hydrologic Models with Different Runoff Mechanisms to a Hill slope dominated Watershed in the Northeastern US: a Comparison of HSPF and SMR, Journal of Hydrology, 284, 57–76.

Kao, J.J., and Chen, W.J. (2003). A Multiobjective Model for Non-Point Source Pollution Control for an Off-Stream Reservoir Catchment, Water Science and Technology, 48(10), 177-

183.

Kersebaum, K.C., Steidl, J., Bauer, O., and Piorr, H.P. (2003). Modelling Scenarios to Assess the Effects of Different Agricultural Management and Land Use Options to Reduce Diffuse Nitrogen Pollution into the River Elbe, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28, 537–545.

Krysanova, V., and Haberlandt, U. (2002). Assessment of Nitrogen Leaching from Arable Land in Large River Basins Part I. Simulation Experiments Using a Process-Based Model, Ecological Modeling, 150, 255–275.

Lee, J.H., Yu, M.J., Bang, K.W., Choe, J.S., and Gwan, E.M. (2002). Development of the ILLUDIAS-WQ Model for Storm water Overflows in Urban Areas, Proceedings of 6 th International Conference on Diffuse Pollution, Amsterdam, IWA, 30 September- 4 October 2002, 89 – 96.

Leon, L.F., Soulis, E.D., Kouwen, N., and Farquhar, G.J. (2002). Modelling Diffuse Pollution with a Distributed Approach, Water Science and Technology, 45(9), 149-156.

Novotny, V. (2003). Water Quality-Diffuse Pollution and Watershed Management, 2 nd Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Prasuhn, V., and Mohni, R. (2002). GIS-Based Estimate of Phosphorus and Nitrogen Inputs into Surface Water of the Switzerland with the model MODIFFUS, Proceedings of 6 th International Conference on Diffuse Pollution, Amsterdam, IWA, 30 September – 4 October 2002, 564 – 565.

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Shively, G., and Coxhead, I. (2004). Conducting Economic Policy Analysis at a Landscape Scale: Examples from a Philippine Watershed, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 104, 159–170.

Turpin, N., Bontems, P., Rotillion, G., Barlund, I., Kaljonen, M., Tattari, S., Feichtinger, F., Strauss, P., Haverkamp, R., Garnier, M., Porto, A.L., Benigni, G., Leone, A., Ripa, M.N., Eklo, O.M., Romstad, E., Bioteau, T., Birgand, F., Bordenave, P., Laplana, R., Lescot, J.M., Piet, L., and Zahni, F. (2005). AgriBMPWater: Systems Approach to Environmentally Acceptable Farming, Environmental Modeling & Software, 20, 187-196.

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Wendland, F., Bach, M., Behrendt, H., and Kunkel, R. (2002). Integrated Modelling of Groundwater-Borne Nitrate Intakes into the River Elbe Basin (German Part), 9th International Conference on Watershed and River Basin Management, Edinburgh, 11-13 September 2002, IWA, Proceedings in CD Rom.

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FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 STRATEGIC DECISION

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RIVER NILE WATER
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RIVER NILE WATER

STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RIVER NILE WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT

Inas El-Gafy (1)

1) Researcher - Strategic Research Unit- National Water Research Center, Egypt, Email: inaa_2r@yahoo.com

Keywords: Environmental management, Decision Support System, water quality, River Nile, water use

ABSTRACT A Decision Support System for River Nile Water Quality Assessment under the name DSS-RNWQA was developed through the current study. In General DSS-RNWQA helps in the environmental management in Egypt, where it can be used in assessing of the pollution level of the main source of fresh water in Egypt. The developed DSS provides information and helps the decision makers in evaluating the suitability of using River Nile for intended uses. These uses are human drinking, irrigation of cotton; rice; wheat; corn; orange; potato; tomato; cucumber; been; onion; barseem; and sugarcane crops, live-stock drinking, fish life, and recreation use. The developed decision support system has an analysis tool that can be applied to assess the improvement in the water quality of the River Nile for certain period of time. Water quality index (WQI) approach was applied for the evaluation process through the developed DSS.

Furthermore, the developed DSS has an information system that was designed to store and retrieve information and data about water quality of the Nile River for both sample and pollution point sources locations. DSS-RNWQA was implemented through database, GIS and interactive spreadsheets analysis. The DSS integrates models, spatial and non-spatial data and analysis tools under user-friendly GIS-based interfaces, which confronts the decision maker with possible measures as well as multiple management objectives.

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INTRODUCTION

Nowadays, one of the major worldwide concerns is the deterioration of the environment. The pollution of the environment may occur as a result of major accidents or continuous discharge of pollutants that accumulate and cause contamination to air, water, and soil. Therefore for the sustainability of healthy environment, there should be a strategic environmental management plan that includes continues evaluation for the environment component, water, air, and soil.

In Egypt the River Nile is the main source for fresh water. River Nile is sometime exposed to pollutants due to human activities. Generally, the main sources of pollutants that dumped into the water course are: domestic wastewater, industrial wastewater and agricultural drains. Accordingly, water quality status on the River Nile may reach to a level that it is not suitable for its intended usage. Therefore, it is essessntial to evaluate the contamination level of the water in the River Nile before reaching the level of unwanted pollution. The regular procedure for analyzing the water quality data to determine its status is usually carried out by comparing the concentration of the on-site measured parameters to their relative standard. This procedure does not describe the overall water quality in a way that could be easily carried-out. Furthermore, it takes long time, effort and a specialist has to conduct this process Therefore, there was a need for a Decision support System to carry out this process. Decision Support System is an integrated approach for helping people make better decisions, DSS is typically a computer program that is used by individuals or groups to facilitate the decision making process (Fulcher et al, 1999).

The purpose of the current study is to introduce a stand alone DSS that allows the decision maker to spatially evaluate the water quality status along the River Nile. The methodology applied herein is to have an intensive literature review about the models and DSS’s previously developed for evaluating water quality in River Nile. In the current study it has been decided to modify an existing module for evaluating River Nile water quality that was developed by El-Gafy in 2004 as a part of a decision support system named “DSS- EEQRA”. The modification takes place to overcome the drawbacks that are found in that module and enhance the modified version to open wider range for decision support. The existing module is capable of evaluating the suitability of water quality for different water uses such as human and livestock drinking use and for irrigation of cotton and rice crops (El Gafy, 2004).

Through the applied modification to the previous module, the new system allows the decision maker to evaluate the suitability of using the water for irrigating ten more crops that are wheat, corn , orange, potato, tomato, cucumber, been, onion, barseem, and sugarcane. Water quality index (WQI) approach is applied for the evaluation process through the developed DSS. WQI is an overall indicator of water quality obtained by aggregating several water quality measurements into one number (Canter, 1996). Moreover, the enhancement version extents for more analysis tools that can be applied to assess the improvement in the water quality of the River Nile for a certain period of time for drinking water and live stock use section. Moreover, Information system is added to the modified DSS. This part of the developed DSS was designed to store and retrieve information and data about water quality of the Nile River for both sample and pollution point sources locations. The user of this part will be able to acquire information and hence endorse the following issues: i) Concentration of a certain parameter at certain year or certain location, ii) water quality data at certain location iii) water quality data of: industrial, agricultural, sewage drains, water treatment plants, and

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power stations. The enhancement procedure is implemented through database, GIS and interactive spreadsheets analysis. The developed DSS integrates models, spatial and non- spatial data and analysis tools under a user-friendly GIS-based interface, which confronts the decision maker with possible measures as well as multiple management objectives.

FEATURES OF THE DEVELOPED DSS

The developed decision support system contains two main parts. The first is an Information System that was designed to store and retrieve information and data about water quality of the Nile River for both sample and pollution point sources locations. The user of this part will be able to acquire information and hence endorse the following issues that are shown in Table (1): a) Concentration of a certain parameter at certain year or location, year for certain location, b) Water quality data at certain location c) Water quality data of:

industrial, agricultural, sewage drains, water treatment plants, and power stations.

The second part is the evaluation System that was developed to evaluate the water quality according to the different water uses. This part is designed in such a way that helps in answering the most probable questions that may come to the decision maker mind. A list of the proposed “what-if” questions that the decision maker may get answers about them through the current decision support system is summarized in Table (2). As shown in Table (2) the user may have a set of evaluation maps, reports and charts that give hem a wide view about the suitability of water quality of the River Nile for human drinking, irrigation of cotton; rice; wheat; corn; orange; potato; tomato; cucumber; been; onion; barseem; and sugarcane crops, Live-stock drinking, Fish leaving, Fish and Human health, and recreation use.

Table (1) Features of DSS-RNWQA Information System

Item

Information

Parameter

Concentration of certain parameter at certain Year for:

all location

certain location

Location

Water quality data at certain location for:

all years

certain year

Plants

Water quality data of:

Industrial drains

Agricultural drains

Sewage drains

Water treatment plants

power stations

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Table (2) Features of DSS-RNWQA Evaluation System

Water Use

Level of

What

If?

Output

evaluation

Irrigation

Macro

What is going to happen if the water body is used for irrigation? What is going to happen if the water body is used for irrigation?

Map with indication of the water suitability degree for cultivating 10 main crops

Irrigation

Micro

Water suitability degree for cultivating 10 main crops and detailed information in case of unsuitable water quality showing the pollutant parameters and its effects Map showing the level of the water suitability for live-stock drinking

Livestock

Macro

What is the suitability of using the water body for livestock drink? What is the suitability of using the water body for livestock drink at certain location? What is the suitability of using the water body for drinking? What is the suitability of using the water body for drinking at certain location? What is the suitability of contacting the water body? What is the suitability of contacting the water body at certain location? What is the suitability of the surface water course for fish living? What is the suitability of the surface water body for fish living at certain location? What is the suitability degree of the surface water body to produce safe fish production for human? What is the suitability degree of the surface water body to produce safe fish production for human?

Livestock

Micro

Detailed information for the degree of the suitability of using the water either if it is positive or negative and its impact on livestock

Drinking

Macro

Map showing the level of the suitability of using the water for human drinking

Drinking

Micro

Detailed information about the degree of suitability of using water for drinking and more deep information about the parameters those cause water condition either if it is good or bad. Map showing the level of the suitability of contacting the water body

Water

Macro

Contact

Water

Micro

Detailed information about the degree of the suitability of contacting the water body showing the pollutant parameters and its effects Map showing the level of the suitability of the surface water body for fish living.

Detailed information about the degree of the suitability of using the water body for fish with high lightning on the parameters that cause pollution for fish Map showing the level of the suitability of the surface water body to produce safe fish production for human.

Contact

Fish

Macro

Fish

Micro

Fish and

Macro

Human

Health

Fish and

Micro

Detailed information about water quality parameter that cause problems to produce safe fish production for human

Human

Health

DEVELOPMENT OF DSS-RNWQA

Design frame work

Figure (1) presents the basic design of DSS-RNWQA. It starts by collect water quality data about the area under investigation. The user has the opportunity to select between two options. The first is interning the information system through which the user can have information about water quality of the Nile River for both sample and pollution point sources locations or going through evaluation process through which the decision maker will be able to assess the suitability of using the water for different water uses.

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Figure (1) Basic Design of DSS-RNWQA The evaluation proce ss starts manipulating a set of

Figure (1) Basic Design of DSS-RNWQA

The evaluation process starts manipulating a set of developed water quality evaluation indices that are: Drinking Water Quality Index, Cotton; Rice; Wheat; Corn; Orange; Potato; Tomato; Cucumber; been; Onion; Barseem; and Sugarcane crops Irrigation Water Quality Index, Live-stock Water Quality Index, Fish Water Quality Index, Fish and Human Water Quality Index- Carcinogens, Fish and Human Water quality Index-Non Carcinogens, and Contact Water Quality Index. The process ends up with quantitative and qualitative evaluation that presents the suitability of using the water body for different uses.

Formulation

The applied indices in the evaluation system were developed after studying and modifying the construction procedures of the previously developed water quality indices in many countries such as United States (Canter, 1996), United Kingdom (House, 1989), and Egypt (El-Sherbini et al, 1992; UNEP, 1995; El-Gafy, 2001, and El-Gafy 2004). The developed indices are: Drinking Water Quality Index, Cotton Irrigation Water Quality Index, Rice; Cotton; Wheat; barssem; Irrigation water Quality Index, Live-stock Water Quality Index, Fish Water Quality Index, Fish and Human Water Quality Index- Carcinogens, Fish and Human Water quality Index-Non Carcinogens, and Contact Water Quality Index. In what follows a description for the process of developing the previous indices will be presented.

(a): Selection of Indicators for Each Water Use Interviews with experts in different authorities in Egypt were conducted to select water quality indicators and to determine their allowable limits. These authorities were:

National Water Research Center; Drainage Research Institute; Central Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring; Advisory Panel for Irrigation and Drainage Projects, Ain Shams University; Faculty of Agricultural and Faculty of Science, El-Mansora University, Agricultural Research Center; and Desert Research Center.

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(b): Development of Value Functions Value functions (sub-index) to relate the concentration of each selected indicator with its effect in the water quality were developed. Figure (2) presents an example of the developed value functions. These functions were developed by using the literature review, interviews with experts, or by making assumptions. Through DSS-RNWQA more that 200 value functions are calculated. The value function can be mathematically formulated as:

Where:

(

I = f C

i

i

)

i = Sub-index for Parameter i

I

C

i = Concentration of parameter i

(1)

10 Excellent 8 Good 6 Moderate 4 Poor 2 Very poor 0 0 0.001 0.002
10
Excellent
8
Good
6
Moderate
4
Poor
2
Very poor
0
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
Cadmium Sub-index

Concentration (mg/l)

Figure (2) Value Function for Cadmium - Drinking Use

(c): Aggregation of the Sub-indices The following equation was used to aggregate the sub-indices.

tested and recommended for calculating the water quality index (El-Gafy, 2001)

This equation was

WQI

U

n =

(

Min I

i

)

(2)

Where:

WQI = Water quality index for each water use

U

n

I i = Sub-index for Parameter i

Implementation

Microsoft Access, EXCEL spreadsheet, and Arc view 3.1 are applied to implement the

A set of maps, tables, quires, objects, macros and end-user interfaces were

Figure (3) represents the relational schema for a part of the

current DSS.

designed and implemented. implemented database.

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Figure (3) The Relational Schema for The Designed Data base DESCRIPTION OF DSS-RNWQA In the

Figure (3) The Relational Schema for The Designed Data base

DESCRIPTION OF DSS-RNWQA

In the following section, description for the developed user-interfaces and their functions will be introduced. Moreover the outputs reports and maps from the developed DSS will be presented. Figure (4) shows the main screen of the developed DSS. The main screen is a window that briefly describes the system and allows the user to start navigating through the DSS by pressing the main menu button that is shown in Figure (4). When the user goes through the main menu screen, shown in Figure (5), he will have the ability to select the area he would like to work on it. The user can select either to go to the data entry screen, the information system or the evaluation system.

Data entry screen

The data entry screen was designed to input the required data for running the DSS. These data include the concentration of different water quality parameters at the different sampling and pollution point source locations along the River Nile. Figure (6) shows data entry screen for sampling location. Similar screen for data entry of pollution point source locations was developed.

498

Figure (4) Main Screen of DSS-RNWQA Figure (5) Main Menu Screen of DSS-RNWQA 499

Figure (4) Main Screen of DSS-RNWQA

Figure (4) Main Screen of DSS-RNWQA Figure (5) Main Menu Screen of DSS-RNWQA 499

Figure (5) Main Menu Screen of DSS-RNWQA

499

Figure (6) Sampling Location Data Entry Screen Information system Through this system the user has

Figure (6) Sampling Location Data Entry Screen

Information system

Through this system the user has the opportunity to search for certain data about sampling or pollution point source locations all over the River Nile. Where, the user will be able to acquire information and hence endorse about concentration of a certain parameter at certain year for all location. Figure (7) presents an output report that shows the concentration of a certain parameter through period of time all over the River Nile. Further more, the user may have data about a certain parameters at certain location for certain period of time. Figure (8) shows the screen that was designed to help the user to investigate for certain parameter at certain year and certain location in an undemanding method. Moreover, the user are able to know water quality data of industrial, agricultural, sewage drains, water treatment plants, and power stations. As an example, Figure (9) shows the output report about the water quality of an industrial pollution point source location.

about the water quality of an industrial pollution point source location. Figure (7) Macro Parameter Search

Figure (7) Macro Parameter Search Report

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Figure (8) Micro Parameter Search Screen Figure (9) Water Quality of Industrial Drain Evaluation system

Figure (8) Micro Parameter Search Screen

Figure (8) Micro Parameter Search Screen Figure (9) Water Quality of Industrial Drain Evaluation system As

Figure (9) Water Quality of Industrial Drain

Evaluation system

As shown in Figure (10) that presents the main screen in the evaluation system; this process is divided into two major levels: the macro-level and the micro-level to be used by both technical and non-technical decision-makers. The macro level is designed to present the evaluation on the level needed by the highest level of decision makers. Through the micro level the user will be able to know the water quality parameters that cause pollution for certain water use at certain location, the negative effects and the standard levels of these parameters, and the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of each parameter. For some water uses such as drinking water a recommended treatment method is available. In what follows a detailed description for each level of evaluation will be introduced.

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Figure (10) Evaluation System Main Screen Macro Evaluation Level Figure (11) and Figure (12) present

Figure (10) Evaluation System Main Screen

Macro Evaluation Level Figure (11) and Figure (12) present examples for the macro evaluation map and the macro evaluation chart that may be obtained for the River Nile for certain water use. From these map and chart the user will be able to know very poor, poor, moderate, good and excellent water quality location for certain water use.

Table (3) presents the macro evaluation report that shows the polluting parameters for drinking use. From this report the Total Coliform is the main parameters that cause pollution for drinking water use in all locations.

Table (4) presents the macro evaluation report that shows the polluting parameters for irrigation use at certain location. From this report Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR) is the main polluting factor for the irrigation at that location. Similar maps, charts and reports are developed for the others water uses.

Micro Evaluation Level Figure (13) shows the micro evaluation report of location No 21 for drinking use. As shown in the figure Total coliform is the main polluting parameter for drinking water use in location 21. The concentration of the Fecal Coliform at location No 21 is 2000 No/100ml while its recommended standard is 1 No/100ml. Therefore, the water quality index at that location is considered very poor and has a qualitative score 0 that is far from the starting score of the very poor level. The very poor level starts from score 2 when the concentration of the parameter is equal to the standard and extended to numerous negative number according to how far is the concentration from the standard level. Moreover, from this report the user has the opportunity to know the effect of the water quality parameters if it exceeds its allowable standard. Herein, Total coliform may cause gastroenteritis, typhoid fever, dysentery cholera and salmonella if the polluted water used without treatment.

Figure (14) presents the micro evaluation report of location No 21 for irrigation use. As shown in this figure the parameter causes the pollution for the irrigation use in this

502

location is Sodium Absorption Ratio. In addition, the report shows the parameter’s concentration and its qualitative water quality class.

concentration and its qualitat ive water quality class. Figure (11) Macro Evaluation Map Figure (12) Macro

Figure (11) Macro Evaluation Map

and its qualitat ive water quality class. Figure (11) Macro Evaluation Map Figure (12) Macro Evaluation

Figure (12) Macro Evaluation Chart

503

Table (3) Macro Evaluation Report of Polluting Parameters for Drinking Use Distance Date Concentration DWQI
Table (3) Macro Evaluation Report of Polluting Parameters for Drinking Use
Distance
Date
Concentration
DWQI
Parameter Name
Water
from
No/100ml
Sub-
Quality Class
AHD
index
(km)
5
9/1/2000
750
0
Total Coliform
very poor
21
9/1/2000
2000
0
Total Coliform
very poor
54
9/1/2000
1300
0
Total Coliform
very poor
83
9/1/2000
1000
0
Total Coliform
very poor
110
9/1/2000
1400
0
Total Coliform
very poor
148
9/1/2000
340
0
Total Coliform
very poor
Table (4) Macro Evaluation Report of Polluting Parameters for Irrigation Use Distance Date Concentration IWQI
Table (4) Macro Evaluation Report of Polluting Parameters for Irrigation Use
Distance
Date
Concentration
IWQI
Parameter Name
Water
from
(Ratio)
sub-index
Quality
AHD
Class
(km)
1123
9/1/2000
9.54
5.97
SAR
Moderate
1136
9/1/2000
9.47
5.99
SAR
Moderate
1150
9/1/2000
9.54
5.97
SAR
Moderate
1166
9/1/2000
9.51
5.98
SAR
Moderate
SAR Moderate 1166 9/1/2000 9.51 5.98 SAR Moderate Figure (13) Drinking Mi cro Evaluation Report for

Figure (13) Drinking Micro Evaluation Report for Certain Location

504

Figure (14) Irrigation Water Micro Evaluation Report for Certain Location CONCLUSION Within the current st

Figure (14) Irrigation Water Micro Evaluation Report for Certain Location

CONCLUSION

Within the current study a Strategic Decision Support System for River Nile Water Quality Assessment under the name DSS-RNWQA has been developed. DSS-RNWQA help

in the environmental management in Egypt where it can be used in assessing of the pollution

level of the main source of fresh water in Egypt.

The developed decision support system has two main parts that are the information system and the evaluation system. The information system was developed to store and retrieve information and data about water quality of the Nile River for both sample and pollution point sources locations. The user of this part will be able to acquire information and hence endorse the following issues: Concentration of a certain parameter at certain year or location, year for certain location, b) Water quality data at certain location c) Water quality data of: industrial, agricultural, sewage drains, water treatment plants, and power stations.

The evaluation system manipulates a set of developed water quality evaluation indices that are: Drinking Water Quality Index, Cotton; Rice; Wheat; Corn; Orange; Potato; Tomato; Cucumber; been; Onion; Barseem; and Sugarcane crops Irrigation Water Quality Index, Live-stock Water Quality Index, Fish Water Quality Index, Fish and Human Water Quality Index- Carcinogens, Fish and Human Water quality Index-Non Carcinogens, and Contact Water Quality Index. The process ends up with quantitative and qualitative evaluation that presents the suitability of using the water body for different uses.

The developed DSS has an analysis tools that can be applied to assess the improvement in the water quality of the River Nile for a certain period of time for human and live stock drinking use section The Developed decision support System was implemented through database, GIS and interactive spreadsheets analysis.

DSS-RNWQA integrates models, spatial and non-spatial data and analysis tools under

a user-friendly GIS-based interface, which confronts the decision maker with possible measures as well as multiple management objectives.

505

REFERENCES

Canter L. W., 1996, “Environmental Impact Assessment”, Second Edition, McGraw- Hill Inc., New York, United States of America El-Gafy I., 2001, “Formulation of Surface Water Quality Index for Egypt”, M. Sc.Thesis, Institute of Environmental Studies and Research, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt. El-Gafy I, 2004, "Decision support System for Evaluating The Environmental Quality in Rural Areas", Ph. D.Thesis, Institute of Environmental Studies and Research, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt. El-Sherbini A., El-Moattassem M., and Sloterdijk H. (1992), “Water Quality Condition of Rossetta Branch, Proceeding of the International Conference Nile 2000, Cairo, Egypt. Fulcher C., Prato T., Barnett Y., 1999, “Economic and Environmental Impacts Assessment Using WAMASS”, Proceeding of the 32 nd Hawaii International Conference on System Science House M. A., (1989), “A Water Quality Index for River Management”, J. Inst. Water and Environment Management 3, 336-344. UNEP, (1995), “ Development of Water Quality Indices for Sustainable Development: a case study ”, Proceeding of the Expert Group Meeting on the Implication of Agenda 21 for Integrated Water Management in the ESCWA Region, Amman, 2-5 October

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FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 FUZZY FISH HABITAT

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 FUZZY FISH HABITAT MODELING Heribert NACKEN Prof. Dr.-Ing,
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 FUZZY FISH HABITAT MODELING Heribert NACKEN Prof. Dr.-Ing,

FUZZY FISH HABITAT MODELING

Heribert NACKEN Prof. Dr.-Ing, Section of Engineering Hydrology, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen 52074, Germany

Tel +49 241 8025273, Fax. +49 2418022701

nacken@lfi.rwth-aachen.de

Hani Nabhan SEWILAM PhD, Senior Staff Scientist, Section of Engineering Hydrology, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen 52074, Germany

Tel. +49 241 8025643, Fax. +49 241 8022702

sewilam@lfi.rwth-aachen.de

Indexing terms: Fuzzy Logic, Fish habitat, rule-based modeling

ABSTRACT Ecohydrology is a scientific area that deals with both hydrological and ecological processes and their interactions. Modeling these processes is characterized as a complex task due to associated uncertainties and nonlinearities. Many of the ecological processes are ill-defined or qualitatively described, sharp knowledge is rather exception. Heterogeneity and variability are main characteristics of hydrological parameters. Unfortunately, traditional mathematical models often fail to cope with the mentioned difficulties. According to the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD), the actions to be taken for ecosystem improvement should enable reaching good ecological status for all waters in Europe before 2015. This adds the development time and cost of our models as additional difficulties to the ecohydrological modeling process, since the implementation of the EU WFD requires affording many reliable ecohydrological models in a limited time space.

507

Fuzzy logic offers potential enhancements to ecohydrological modeling as well as many other scientific areas. It facilitates describing complicated, uncertain and non-linear processes in a strict mathematical framework as well as transforming available experts’ words and knowledge into rule-based models with less efforts and low cost. The basic principals of fuzzy ecohydrological models are illustrated in this paper. The advantages of using fuzzy-based models as tools for implementing the EU WFD are discussed. The paper introduces also a demonstration example for a fuzzy fish-habitat model. The model shows that fuzzy logic is a reliable technique for representing many ecohydrological processes and encourages scientists to carry out further similar research. EU WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE (EU WFD)

The EU WFD has the objective of reaching a “Good Ecological Status” by 2015. The Directive only gives general definitions and work instructions, but leaves the details for the member states. Therefore, researchers must actively participate to adopt technologies for suggesting remediation action scenarios, planning and implementing them. This is necessary to maximize protection for the current ecological quality of surface water and provide the strongest possible incentives for the restoration of degraded waters.

Hendry et al. [1] concluded during a workshop held to discuss the implementation of the EU WFD that “ computer modelling is a useful tool, but do they work? A fortune could be spent but be no better informed at the end of it – i.e. if models help understand the problem (which is not always the case) then fine but they are not a solution in themselves and should not be an objective unless they have a specific role to play in problem solving, understanding and/or management.“ It was also mentioned that models are relatively expensive with a need to maintain long data sets.

On the other hand, without using computer models, it will be almost impossible to suggest remediation action scenarios for improving the ecological status, test them and decide the ones to be implemented. For this task, many hydrological and ecological processes as well as their interactions should be modeled. Hydrological aspects that affect ecological status such as nutrient transport to the surface and groundwater must be quantified based on modeling the dynamic processes. This will be essential to decide which land-use scenario is the best to minimize diffuse sources of pollution. The complexity of such an interaction makes modelers oversimplify their models. For instance, most diffuse sources of pollution are based on balance concepts and not on simulating the real world dynamic processes. This is because of the complexity and uncertainty associated with such tasks. Tasks such as the impact of chemicals concentration on fish habitat or predicting the effects of changes in hydrological cycle or water quality on the probability of plant species occurrence should be quantified based on physical simulation.

Integrated models should be developed and then implemented to analyze formulated scenarios. The ecological potentials of the analyzed scenarios should be determined. An overall assessment should be carried out to decide the scenario to be implemented. As

508

described in the following section, the main difficulty of following this procedure is the complexity of ecohydrological modeling.

COMPLEXITIES OF ECOHYDROLOGICAL MODELING

Ecohydrology is characterized as one of the most complex scientific areas, since it integrates ecology into hydrological approaches, and hydrology into ecological studies [2]. Hydrology as defined by Lee [3] is the science that tries to explain the water balance dynamics for any defined space (from point to global) and temporal scale (from seconds to years) and their relationships with the physical and chemical transport of matter through the hydrological cycle and with ecology. The main hydrological processes that influence the ecosystem are evapotranspiration, precipitation, infiltration, capillary rise, groundwater flow and surface runoff. An ecological system or ecosystem as defined by Siry [4] is the basic unit of a synthetic and systematic study of an organism or a species and its surroundings. An eco- system is divided into; habitat, mineral, biotic community and organic.

Mathematical modeling of ecohydrological processes faces a great difficulty, because of the high uncertainties of the involved parameters. In addition, the data and knowledge that describe the ecological relationships are mostly imprecise, uncertain or ambiguous. Kampichler et al. [5] stated that an overemphasis on the precision of mathematical models does not necessary lead to a better representation of reality. In most of the cases, ecologists do not communicate in the form of systems of differential equations or analytical models, but they use natural languages and qualitative reasoning for the description of ecological relationships. Unfortunately, classical mathematical models are not well suited for dealing with ill-defined, uncertain situations or qualitatively described processes. Therefore, implementing artificial intelligent techniques is a suitable approach for modeling ecohydrological processes.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIEGENCE TECHNIQUES

In contrast of traditional mathematical modeling techniques, artificial intelligence provides a means for processing knowledge that is represented in natural language and enables capturing knowledge from available data. In addition artificial intelligence techniques have the capability to handle large amount of dynamic, non-linear, noisy or uncertain data. As defined by Dzeroski et al. [6] “Artificial intelligence is the study of ways in which computers can perform tasks that demand intelligent behavior”. Artificial intelligence techniques include artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms.

Such techniques can be the desired solution that enables researchers to describe and assess ecohydrological processes and status in less time and with lower cost and in turn to reach the good ecological status by 2015. Fuzzy rule-based models are recently employed in ecohydrological modeling to perform simulation tasks that could be called qualitative simulation. Such models enable describing uncertain and ill-defined situations in strict mathematical frameworks. The coming sections discuss the main problems associated with modeling of fish habitat as well as a demonstration example of implementing a fuzzy rule- based approach to assess the suitability of the water ways for fish habitat.

FISH HABITAT AND THE WFD

Fish habitat is defined as those parts of the environment that fish depend on, directly or indirectly, in order to carry out their life processes” [7]. There are basic requirements that should be available so that fish can successfully carry out their life processes;

509

- fish must have food to be able to reproduce and need cover to protect themselves from predators.

- the biological, chemical and physical features of water streams must be suitable for the reproduction process.

Water quality can affect fish directly through behavioral and physiological changes or indirectly by affecting food supply or habitat. Extreme water quality changes may result in physiological trauma (e.g. organ damage) or death. Water quality parameters that can affect fish include water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, ammonia, salinity, dissolved metal concentrations and other toxic substances such as chlorinated organics, oils, pesticides, etc [7].

It is clear that the suitability of a water stream for fish habitat is an indication for the water quality. For the EU WFD, fish habitat can be used as an indicator for the biological quality of water courses. Therefore, fish habitat modeling is a twofold objective; First, it enables assessment the suitability of water bodies for fish habitat. Second, it indicates the quality of the observed water stream and whether a remediation action is necessary or not.

A FUZZY-BASED HABITAT MODEL FOR SALMON

In this part, the first phase of a research project that aims to develop a fuzzy-based habitat model for salmon fish is proposed [9]. The main objective of this project is to develop a model for salmon that could be used to assess the German water bodies with respect to their suitability for salmon habitat. The small blocks on the left side of Figure (1) represent the input parameters of the model (refer also to Table 1). The suitability index of a water body for fish habitat is considered the output of the model (the small block on the right side of Figure 1). The large eight blocks in the middle of the screen are the rule-blocks, which perform the stepwise aggregation of the values of input- and intermediate-parameters.

Table 1. The inputs and intermediate parameters of the fish model.

Input

Units

Intermediate

Parameters

Parameters

dissolved

[mg/l]

 

oxygen

Physical

Water velocity

[m/s]

Temperature

°C

 

pH-Wert

   

Ammoniac

[mg/l]

Water Quality a

Cupper

[mg/l]

Zink

[mg/l]

 

AFS

[mg/l]

 

Pesticide

[mg/l]

Water Quality b

Tenside

[mg/l]

Patency

Linguistic

Morphology a

Riffle-Pool

Linguistic

Substrata

Linguistic

Morphology b

Permeability

Linguistic

510

Each of the input and intermediate indicato rs are represented as linguistic variables with three

Each of the input and intermediate indicators are represented as linguistic variables with three terms. The output variable “Habitat Suitability Index” has five terms and uses Center-of-Maximum (CoM) defuzzification method. Each term is described either by triangular or trapezoidal membership function.

The membership functions were initially spaced equally and then shifted and modified according to the opinion of fish experts and researchers. Fig (2) shows an example of the input variable “water temperature” that is divided into three different membership functions. The membership function of the set “low” has a degree of one from zero through 5 °C. This membership value declines to zero when the value is 12 °C. The same is followed to construct both membership functions optimal and high. The approach is repeated for all variables.

and high . The approach is repeated for all variables. Figure 2. Membership functions for the

Figure 2. Membership functions for the parameter water temperature

Selecting linguistic terms that are meaningful for users are considered while constructing the membership functions. For instance, the terms of the “pesticide” are considered as follows: “tolerable, damaging, deathly”. Because of the unavailability of crisp data, four out of fourteen input variables are adopted to receive qualitative input data (e.g.

511

Pool_Type). The other ten variables are crisp variables. The inputs of the crisp variables will be transformed to linguistic terms (fuzzified) and sent to the rule-base to be manipulated with the linguistic terms of the other four variables.

The rule-base includes fuzzy rules which are used to stepwise aggregate and assess the input terms in order to reach the overall goal (habitat suitability index). For instance, a rule that is used to assess and aggregate the water quality parameters (ammoniac, cooper and zink) in one intermediate parameter (Water Quality a) can be written as follows:

IF ammoniac IS tolerable AND cooper IS tolerable AND zink IS deathly THEN Water_quality_a IS bad

The output term of this rule will be assessed together with the terms of the other water quality inputs to reach an intermediate water quality term as follows:

IF water_quality_a IS bad AND water_quality_b IS bad AND pH_value IS

deathly

THEN overall_water_quality IS bad

The output terms of the intermediate variables will be again aggregated and assessed to give an overall assessment about the suitability of the observed waterway as follows:

IF overall_water_quality IS bad AND morphology IS unsuitable AND water_area IS unsuitable THEN Habitat_Suitability IS very_low

Each rule has got a weight (from 0 to 1) that reflects it significance. Initially, all possible rules are generated and then assessed to get the suitable weight. This process is also carried out by fish experts and researchers. The center of maximum method is then used to defuzzify the linguistic terms of the fish habitat suitability index. The result of the model is a crisp suitability value of the assessed water stream that is between 0 and 1.

The first phase of the model development has shown the applicability of fuzzy logic to develop ecohydrological models that overcome the problem of associated uncertainty of the parameters. The model enables mixing qualitative and quantitative data in a strict fuzzy mathematical framework. It was possible to integrate the qualitative knowledge of involved researchers and experts during constructing both membership functions and rule-bases. During the second phase of the research project the model will be validated and tested for different water streams across Germany.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper scoped on the need for simple modeling techniques that enable carrying out the required tasks of the EU WFD, mainly modeling of ecohydrological processes and habitat prognoses. Fuzzy models normally produce compatible results comparing to the traditional numerical methods. In addition, they are easy to interpret and require less programming efforts and costs. Such models can be adapted to accept mixed data (fuzzy and crisp) and carry out simulations using less number of parameters. Therefore, fuzzy rule-based

512

models are recommended to be intensively used for suggesting, analyzing and selecting the action plans for the EU WFD.

The main difficulty of constructing fuzzy models is constructing the membership functions and the rule-base. Combining fuzzy techniques with algorithms that enable automatic knowledge acquisition from available data improves the process significantly. For instance, artificial neural networks have the ability to learn new associations, new functional dependencies and new patterns from data. Such hybrid techniques are recommended for further ecohydrological modeling tasks.

REFERENCES

[1] Hendry et al. Implementing the EU Water Framework Directive in the Northwest: the research agenda. Proceedings of a Research Workshop April 8th 2003, Allen Hall,

Fallowfield, Manchester. [2] Janauer, G.A., 2000. Ecohydrology: fusing concepts and scales. Ecological Engineering 16, 9-16. [3] Lee, J., 1996. IAHS Newsletter 42. [4] Siry, J., 2001. Ideas, Actions and Values. Internet Publication:

http//fox.Rollins.edu/~jsiry/ecology.html [5] Kampichler, Ch., Barthel j. and Wieland, R. 2000. Species density of foilage-dwelling spiders in field margins: a simple, fuzzy-based model. In Ecological Modelling 129, 87-

99.

[6] Dzeroski, S., Grbovic, J., Walley, W.J. and Kompare, B., 1997. Using machine learning techniques in the construction of models: „ data analysis with rule induction: Ecological Modeling 95, 95-111. [7] Online Publications of the government of Alberta 2003 (Transportation department). Fish Habitat Manual. http://www.trans.gov.ab.ca. [8] Baggash, M., Sewilam, H. and Nacken, H. 2004. Fuzzy Model for Salmon Habitat. A Diploma thesis, Aachen University of Technology.

513

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 DSS FOR

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 DSS FOR INTEDISCIPLINARY WATER MANAGEMENT Hani Nabhan
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 DSS FOR INTEDISCIPLINARY WATER MANAGEMENT Hani Nabhan

DSS FOR INTEDISCIPLINARY WATER MANAGEMENT

Hani Nabhan SEWILAM PhD, Senior Staff Scientist, Section of Engineering Hydrology, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen 52074, Germany

Tel. +49 241 8025643, Fax. +49 241 8022702

sewilam@lfi.rwth-aachen.de

Heribert NACKEN Prof. Dr.-Ing, Section of Engineering Hydrology, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen 52074, Germany

Tel +49 241 8025273, Fax. +49 2418022701

nacken@lfi.rwth-aachen.de

Indexing terms: Environmental indicators, Decision Support System, participatory management, water management.

ABSTRACT

Water resources management involves complicated social, organizational, legal and economical issues in addition to the undoubtedly important technical matters and environmental aspects. Management decisions have potential to be controversial because the involved groups (ecologists, economists, hydrologists and sociologists) hold distinct interests and unique objectives. Therefore, the development of decision support systems (DSS) faces great difficulties not only because of the multiple objectives and multiple participant decision making situations but also due to the complexity of participating an team interdisciplinary in the modelling processes. For instance, while ecologists use natural languages and qualitative reasoning for the description of ecological relationships, hydrologists communicate in the form of systems of differential equations or analytical models.

The proposed concept suggests identifying specific performance indicators to quantify the multiple objectives and assess the management scenarios under investigation. The indicators are classified into ecological,

514

economical, social and technical indicators. To overcome the problem of multiple participants, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is implemented to assign weights to the involved decision makers with respect to their experience and background. The management scenarios will be assessed and ranked according to the predefined performance indicators with respect to the opinion of decision makers taking into consideration their assigned weights. Fuzzy logic (FL) is used to facilitate transformation of qualitative knowledge into mathematical assessment models. FL is also implemented to model and aggregate the performance indicators. Finally, the paper introduces a case study for implementing this concept for the management of irrigation schemes.

CONFLICT IN WATER MANAGEMENT

Many of the water systems all over the world are performing far below their technical and financial potentials. Deterioration of water systems due to management obstacles necessitates improving the management strategies and concepts to cope with the challenge of providing the steadily increasing population with enough food during the new century. For instance, management of large irrigation schemes suffers from a lack of participation between water officials and farmers. The traditional top down management approach has failed to aid farmers [1], because farmers often reject to implement bureaucratically decided seasonal plans that rarely meet their objectives. There is also significant conflict associated with integrated management of river basins because of the involvement of interdisciplinary parties that have conflictive objectives. Often maximizing an environmental objective means minimizing another economical objective and vice versa. For example, protecting water quality by reducing the applied amount of pesticide leads to reducing the crop production per unit area. In this case the environmentalists struggle to implement such strategy, because farmers are against it. Many other examples are reported in managing water systems not only between water users and officials but also between water official themselves.

The main challenge that will be dealt with in this paper is to propose a procedure that enables to overcome the mentioned issues and supports the involved parties in performing the participatory planning. In this paper, a framework for water managers and water users to participate in setting seasonal plans for the managing of water systems will be introduced. The suggested framework enables integrating decision makers who represent all parties involved in water management (environmentalists, economists, engineers, sociologist, and farmer-representatives) in the planning process.

DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK

In general, the suggested framework that gives each of the involved management parties the right to participate in setting management plans, assessing them and selecting the one to be implemented. An analytical approach is suggested and implemented [2] to identify the locations of conflict. The analysis identified the required aspects to be considered while formulating decision alternatives and how performance indicators can be developed. The indicators are essential to assess the performance of the management with respect to predefined objectives. It is also recommended to test the feasibility of the suggested scenario with respect to management restrictions before spending time for its analysis.

515

As shown in Fig (1), the decision makers together form a committee that suggests different planning alternatives (scenarios). Each planning alternative X which satisfies the restrictions R represents a feasible planning scenario.

X

=

x

1

,

x

2

,

x

3

x

i

(1)

where X is a decision alternative, and x is the i-th decision variable (e.g. x 1 = water fee

$/m 3 , x 2 = type of fertilizers,

x 3 = allocated water m 3 /ha, … etc.).

X

R

r hum

r tech

r nat

r leg

=

=

=

=

=

{

X

R

r

hum

where:

(

X

) 0,

r

tech

(

X

) 0,

r

nat

(

X

) 0,

human restrictions such as preferable working time,

technical restrictions such as canal max. capacity,

natural restrictions such as soil type,

legal restrictions such as allowed fertilizers.

r

leg

(

X

) 0 }

with:

(2)

Based upon the detailed analysis of the feasible alternative X j , the corresponding performance indicators will be estimated.

Y

=

Analysis ( X )

(3)

where Y is the set of indicators resulted from the simulation to assess the scenario under observation.

Y

=

{

Y

11

, Y , Y } 12 Y ki 44 Planning Committee Formulate next Alternative j=j+1
, Y
,
Y
}
12
Y ki
44
Planning Committee
Formulate next Alternative
j=j+1
Alternative
X j
no
Satisfy
Restrictions?
yes
Simulation (X j )
Performance
Indicators (Y ki ) j
Formulation
of
Assessment (Y ki ) j
Assessment
Opinions
Ranking Score V j
no
Last
Altarnative?
yes
Rank Alternatives
Decision
Data Data Base Base

(4)

Figure (1) A Decision Making Framework

516

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

There are many definitions of what precisely a Decision Support System (DSS) is. A definition that could be acceptable has been given by Adelman [3] who defined a DSS as an interactive computer program that utilizes analytical methods, such as decision analysis,

optimization algorithms, and so on, for developing models to help decision makers formulate alternatives, analyze their impacts, interpret and select appropriate options for implementation. In order to assist water decision makers to carry out the proposed decision making framework a DSS that includes the following subsystems should be realized:

a. Model Management Subsystem: This component will be essential to

analyze the suggested decision scenarios. It might include financial, statistical, management science, or other quantitative models that provide the DSS analytical capabilities, and an appropriate software management.

b. Knowledge Management Subsystem: This subsystem includes the

opinion of the decision makers that is essential to assess the proposed decision scenarios.

c. Data management Subsystem: includes the database, which contains

the necessary data for the other subsystems which is managed using a database management system (DBMS).

d. User interface: this is the dialogue subsystem that enables the users to

communicate with the DSS. A considerable attention should be played while developing this component since it is the criteria that attracts the user whether to use the system or not.

PARTICIPATORY ASSESSMENT OF MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

This part deals only with a knowledge management subsystem as one main component for an irrigation management DSS. The knowledge management subsystem can be considered as an assessment model of the suggested decision scenarios. The particular problem that should be covered by this model is threefold:

1) considering the multiple interdisciplinary criteria (technical, social, environmental and economical). 2) considering the conflictive assessment opinions of the involved decision makers while assessing their suggested scenarios.

3)

mathematical handling of the qualitative expressed opinions.

The performance indicators considered to assess the overall performance of the suggested management scenarios are listed in Table (1). To cope with the interdisciplinary criteria, this work suggested a three-level hierarchical assessment approach. As stated in Table (2), the set of indicators {Y ki } to be estimated through simulation for each management scenario are placed at the bottom level of a hierarchical structure. The indicators {Y ki } should be rated and aggregated to form four indicators {Y k }, where k = 1,2,3,4 which represent Economical, Technical, Social and Environmental indicators respectively. The intermediate indicators {Y k } are placed at the medium level of the hierarchy and (Y 0 ) is the overall indicator to be estimated at the hierarchy top. The value of the overall indicator represents a ranking score for the management scenario under investigation.

517

Table 1. Performance indicators [4, 5, 6, 7 and 8].

I TERM NDICATORS A Pr oduction ($) rea Based 11 CO Irrigated Area ha (
I
TERM
NDICATORS
A
Pr
oduction
($)
rea Based
11
CO
Irrigated Area ha
(
)
Productivity
W
Pr
oduction
($)
ater Based
3
12
CO
Volume of water consumed byET
(
m
)
Productivity
Fi
National Fund + Collected Fees ($)
nancial-self-
13
CO
Total O
&
M
Re
quirements
($)
sufficiency
Y
Actual Yield
(
ton
)
ield
21
EC
T
arg
et Yield
(
ton
)
Performance
Irrigation
+
Ra
inf
all ( mm
)
R
elative Water
Evapotranspiration
+
Seepage
+ Perco
22
EC
Supply
3
C
Crop Irrigation
Re
quirement
(
m
)
3
onveyance
Total Irrigation Water m
(
)
23
EC
Efficiency
In
Water
Re
ceived by Best Supplied Quar
terquartile
Water
Re
ceived by Worst Supplied Quar
31
OC
Ratio
E
mployment
Annual Person Days / ha Labor in Schem
Annual Number Official Working Days
31
OC
Generation
C
EC
− EC
new
old
41
hange of EC
NV
EC
old
P
otential of
Amount of Nutrient Leaving the Farms
Amount of Added Nutrient (ton)
42
NV
Pollution
C
new depth
(
m
)
− old depth m
(
)
hange of GW-
43
NV
old depth m
(
)
table
Amount of Se
dim
ent Leaving the Far
S
ediment
Farm Area ha
(
)
44
NV
Yield

Table 2. The Concept of Hierarchical Assessment

 

Performances Indicators

Assessment

 

Ranking Score :

Y

0

Overall Aggregation

 

Intermediate Indicators:

 

Relative Rating &

Aggregation

{

Y

1

, Y

2

,

Y

k

}

{

Y

11

, Y

12

,

Simulation Outputs :

Y

ki

}

 

Absolute Rating & Aggregation

ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS (AHP)

To deal with the second problem of the multiple participants, [9, 10] approach is implemented to assign a weight for each of the decision makers. The following five criteria have been used to estimate these weights: personal knowledge, performance measure, personal interest and represented public. Let the DM 1 , DM 2 … DM J be the set of involved decision makers and C 1 , C 2, … C 5 are the mentioned set of evaluation criteria. Based on the five criteria the weights of DMs will be obtained. The approach is summarized in four main steps as follow:

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Fig 2.

Hierarchy of

{ DM } Top w Goal w w w w w 5 1 2 3
{
DM
}
Top
w
Goal
w
w
w
w
w
5
1
2
3
4
C
C
C
C
C
1
2
3
4
5
1
w
1
1
w
1
1
w
2
w
3
4
1
w
5
DM 1
DM 2
DM J

The Importance

DMs

Step 1: A three-level hierarchy has been constructed as shown in Fig 2. The involved decision makers have been placed at the bottom level and the top goal is the DM’s weight

{

w

DM

}

. In the intermediate level the five mentioned criteria have been placed.

Step 2: Pairwise comparison matrixes have been built to assess the importance of the elements of this level with respect to each criteria of the upper level. The proper question in the pairwise comparison is of the form: “considering DM 1 and DM 2 of the bottom level, how much more important is DM 1 compared to DM 2 with respect to their Personal Knowledge (C 1 )”. Using this pairwise comparison approach, 5 matrices (J X J matrix) are constructed to quantify the judgment of the comparison between the different involved decision makers with

respect to the five criteria of the level above (C 1 , C 2 ,

C 5 respectively).

Step 3: By repeating the same procedure of Step 2, another matrix is constructed to compare the criteria themselves (C 1 , C 2 , …, C 5 ) with respect to the top-goal.

Step 4: Once all the six weighting vectors are estimated, they will be multiplied appropriately through the branches of the hierarchy to determine the overall set of weights of the bottom layer with respect to the top goal. The described four steps were applied to assign weights for 8 fictitious decision makers. For the pairwise comparison reasonable values were selected that reflect the opinion of the author. The resulted weights are listed in Table (3).

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Table 3. The Weights of the DMs

CRITERIA

 

DM1 : Economical Manager

.151

DM2 : Technical Manager

.156

DM3 : Social Manager

.137

DM4 : Environmental Manager

.114

DM5 : First Farmer Representative

.110

DM6 : Second Farmer Representative

.154

DM7 : Third Farmer Representative

.100

DM8 : Forth Farmer Representative

.077

NEUROFUZZY ASSESSMENT MODEL (NFAM)

A neurofuzzy model was constructed to assess the proposed scenarios. Fuzzy logic was considered to overcome the third problem of uncertain and qualitative opinions of the decision makers. The hierarchical structure of the performance indicators is horizontally represented as show in Figure (3). The small blocks on the left side represent the two absolute-rating layers. The large five blocks in the middle of the screen are the rule-blocks, which perform relative rating and stepwise aggregation of the values of input- and

intermediate-indicators. The small block on the right side is the output interface of the overall performance indicator. Each of the indicators was represented using fuzzy membership functions with three linguistic terms. A voting system was implemented to formulate the training sets for the model. The assigned weights of the decision makers were considered while formulating the training sets. The model was trained with the aim to adjust the membership functions and assign weights to the fuzzy rules. It can be noticed that the membership functions of the indicator “productivity/unit area” have been adjusted after training. Also each rule has a weight between (0-1) that reflects its importance. Once the model’s components were adapted, it was tested to measure its performance through

scenarios.

assessing

different

decision

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Fi g 3. The trained NeuroFuzzy Assessment Model CONCLUSION Decision support systems ar e powerful

Fig 3. The trained NeuroFuzzy Assessment Model

CONCLUSION

Decision support systems are powerful tools to deal with the main problems associated with planning of large water systems and managing their schemes. The management of such systems faces many obstacles such as the interaction between economical, social, technical and environmental aspects. The considerable conflict between the involved interdisciplinary decision makers leads to deteriorating such schemes. Developing DSS for managing water aspects faces also the difficulty of uncertainty and the unavailability of crisp knowledge.

The knowledge management is a critical and important component of any DSS. NFAM is a model that can be integrated to irrigation management DSSs as a knowledge management subsystem. The NFAM is an attempt to integrate the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) in a comprehensive approach that overcomes the problems encountered in participatory planning. The developed NFAM encourages the further development of DSSs for participatory management of water systems. Automatic knowledge elicitation using ANN enables the fast generation of rule-base of assessment models. Such an approach is also recommended to be implemented by the ecologists to develop rule-based habitat prognoses models.

REFERENCES

[1] Pallas, P. (1993). Water and Sustainable Agricultural development: The Role of Planning and Design of Irrigation and Drainage Systems. Trans. 15 th Congress on Irrigation and Drainage, Vol 1-J.pp.53-71. [2] Sewilam, H.A.N. (2002) NeuroFuzzy Modelling for Conflict Resolution in Irrigation Management. PhD Thesis, Aachen University of Technology, Germany. [3] Adelman, L. (1992). Evaluating Decision Support and Expert Systems, John Wiley and Sons, New York. [4] Bos, M.G., D.H. Murry Rust, D.J. Merry, H.G. Johnson, and W.B. Snellen (1994). Methodologies for assessing performance of irrigation and drainage management. Irrigation and Drainage System, pp. 231-261.

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[5] Molden, D., R. Sakthivadivel, Ch.J. Perry, Ch. de Fraiture and W.H. Kloezen (1998). Indicators for Comparing Performance of Irrigated Agricultural Systems. International Water Management Institute, Research Report 20, Colombo, Sri Lanka. [6] Bos M.G., W. Wolters, A. Drovandi and J.A. Morabito (1991). The Viejo Retamo secondary canal performance evaluation case study: Mendoza, Argentina. Irrigation and Drainage Systems Vol.5, pp. 77-88. [7] Abernethy, C. (1986). Performance Measurement in Canal Water Management: A discussion. ODI/IIMI Irrigation Management Network Paper 86/2d. [8] Levine, G. (1982). Relative water supply: An explanatory variable for irrigation systems. Technical Report No. 6. Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA. [9] Saaty, T.L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. Mc Graw-Hill,

International Book Company. [10] Zio , E. (1996). On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgements. In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 53, pp.127-

138.

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FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 APPLIED INDICATORS FOR

FIRST AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

April 9-11 2005

CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 APPLIED INDICATORS FOR EVALUATION THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND
CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING April 9-11 2005 APPLIED INDICATORS FOR EVALUATION THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND

APPLIED INDICATORS FOR EVALUATION THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND AGRICULTURAL ASPECTS RELATED TO WATER RESOURCES IN EGYPT

Assem Afify 1 , Khalef Maherzi 2 , Mohammed Abdel Motaleb 3 and Atef Hamdy 4

1 Research Associate Professor, Strategic Research Unit, National Water Research Center, Egypt.

2 Research Assistant, Mediterranean Agronomic Institiute of Bari, Italy.

3 Research Professor, Director, Water Resources Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Egypt.

4 Director of Research, Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari, Italy.

ABSTRACT

A multi-disciplinary approach is getting to be an essential pre-requisite in

any water resources study or project in many countries. Egypt is a good example of a developing country, where many projects are currently progressing steadily. Particularly, in the field of agricultural development, national projects are getting more emphasize from the government to secure the country. In addition, water is very essential for any development, particularly for agriculture. It is well known that Egypt is using about 85%

of the available water resources in the agricultural sector. Hence, it is very

important to study the socio-economic and agricultural aspects as related to water. Evaluation for the overall status of the current socio-economic, environmental, and water resources system at present requires a massive and detailed data collection. This may not be feasible for the current study to achieve. The proposed study, however, will tackle only the issue of agriculture and socio-economic aspects. The study aims at the evaluation of the socio-economic and agriculture sub- systems as related to the use of water in agriculture. The main objective of

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the study is to develop agricultural and socio-economic indicators for the country on the national and regional levels. Water indicators are also developed but for a sub-regional level, where only the Delta region is considered as a separate case study. The results from the study are presented to compare between the different sub-regions of the Delta concerning the agriculture water availability. The study also recommended developing a GIS/software package to facilitate presenting the results from all different categories of indicators visually in a better way.

Keywords: indicators, socio-economic, agriculture, water resources.

1 INTRODUCTION

Sustainable development indicators measure sustainability or sustainable development performance. Most environmental indicators have a sustainable development framework in which environmental, economic and social indicators are linked together. Similarly, sustainable development indicators in Egypt may cover the following categories: economic indicators, socio-economic indicators, environmental indicators and water indicators. An example of economic indicator on the national level is the Gross Domestic Product. It is calculated as the total of all sectors value at factor cost [1]. Socio-economic indicators’ category reflects the interaction between the society and the economy. For example, the economy will have a direct effect on the society in terms of education, health, and employment. Therefore, an important indicator in the socio-economic category is the employment fraction. The indirect link between the economy and the society is through the environment. For example, excessive use of pesticides by farmers or absence of domestic sewerage in rural areas will lead to contamination in surface and ground water. Another socio-economic indicator, commonly used in Egypt, is the grain security. It is the security of the rice, wheat, and maize. The grain security is the fraction or percentage of the national production of any type of grains to the local consumption of this type [1]. If the security is 100% or more, this means that the nation consumption is completely satisfied by the production of this type. If it is lower than 100%, this means that the nation consumption is not satisfied by production and the nation needs to import the deficit part. An example for environmental indicators is the integrated water quality index for industrial wastewater, which is determined based on the standards given by law No. 48, 1989 for six major parameters and their actual concentrations [2]. The parameters are selected to reflect the adverse effects of the pollutants. These parameters are the biological oxygen demand (BOD), the chemical oxygen demand (COD), heavy metals (HM), oil and grease, suspended solids (SS) and the total dissolved solids (TDS). The integrated water quality index for industrial wastewater can be estimated by applying the root-mean-square for the different parameters indices [3]. Obviously, water plays a key rule in any development project in Egypt. Therefore, water indicators should measure in the first stand sufficiency of water for development at present, and also measure the availability of water for future developments. The first can be described as the water security indicator. This is defined as the fraction or the percentage of all the available water resources to the sum of all the

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water requirements. The second indicator, expressed as water sustainability indicator, highlights on the sustainability of the potential water resources in the future [4]. Indicators for Egypt's sustainable development were introduced and applied on the Southern Valley project (Toshka) [5], as one of the major development projects in the country. However, and in order to investigate the impacts of any other development project, the actual state of the water resources system should be first defined, and an over view of the related agricultural and socio-economic environment must also be considered. However, detailed view of such water resources, socio-economic and agricultural systems in a country cannot be figuratively induced due to the complexity and the high number of elements that might be considered. It is then clear that decision-makers must elaborate some indicators to have an idea about the impact of different elements on the system. The main goal of the proposed study is to evaluate the current status of the water resources system through developing integrated indicators measuring water, agriculture, social, and economic dimensions.

2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDICATORS

A description for the different categories of indicators and their development are going to be discussed in this section. Three major categories of indicators are discussed thoroughly; agriculture, socio-economic and water indicators. Agriculture indicators considered in this study are the cropping pattern, crop yield and return of major cereal crops. Agricultural ownership and powerstock fraction, and land use indicators are also considered. Among socio-economic indicators considered in this study are: population and household densities, employement fraction, owner size fraction, drinking water service, and sewerage service indicators. Water indicators considered in this study are agriculture water needed and available, and the fraction of agriculture water availability. The detailed description of each indicator is discussed in the following sub-sections.

2.1 Agriculture Indicators

2.1.1 Cropping Pattern

Cropping pattern is defined as the fraction of a specific area used for a specific crop in respect to the total area used for all the crops. It is calculated for the six most important crops in Egypt: Rice, Maize, Sorghum, Wheat, Sugar cane and Cotton. Eqn (1) is used to obtain the cropping pattern for each Governorate.

CP

c

CA

c

= n CA i = 1

i

(1)

In which, CP c is the cropping pattern for a certain crop, CA c is the cropped area for the same crop, CA i is the cropped area for any crop i, and n is the number of crops cultivated during the year.

2.1.2 Crop Yield

Crop yield is defined as the quantity of a crop produced by the unit area of agricultural land (feddan). It is obtained for the most important crops (Beans, Nile maize, Summer Maize, Wheat, Rice and Barley). Crop yield is estimated in ton/fedan [6] and is calculated by Eqn (2).

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Yield =

Quantity Produced by a crop

Area Used for this crop

(2)

2.1.3 Crop Return

The crop return or the production output from a certain crop is defined as the average amount of money per feddan that the farmer will get it out from the cultivation of that crop. It is calculated by Eqn (3) for each Governorate in Egypt.

Fo

i

=

Yield

i

× Qp

i

(3)

In which, Fo i is the production output for a certain crop i and Qp i is the price for one ton of the same crop.

2.1.4 Agricultural Ownership

The agricultural ownership is divided into three sub indicators, the first one is the agriculture ownership for farm size between 0 and 5 feddan, it is defined as the fraction of the area used by small farms, so that the farm area dose not exceed 5 feddan. It is calculated by Eqn (4) for each Governorate [1].