America's No.

1 expert on insight and profits

WHAT'S YOUR EDGE OVER THE CROWD?
Frequently, I see a race the same way as the public. They like No. 3 slightly ov
er No. 6 and No. 8, and that's just about what I have. It's doubtful I'm going t
o find something to bet.
Other times I don't see anything at all. Maybe there are six first-time-on-the-t
urf horses and even after I've looked up all the relevant pedigree information,
anybody's guess is as good as mine. Or maybe there are five big class-droppers i
nto a bottom-level race and who knows which of these veterans is sound enough to
do much running today?
Too many punters force their bets. You're at the track (or worse, at an off-cour
se facility where you can't even enjoy a walk in the infield between races) and
perhaps you feel compelled to bet, particularly after everyone with you has alre
ady expressed his opinion and gotten up to make a bet.
And thus begins a losing spiral ... making bets on races where you have no advan
tage, and so many of them that even when you DO land on something it's never eno
ugh to make up for the losses.
The cure for this (at least, if you're serious about winning), is to change that
search for the winner into that search for an insight. You should be looking fo
r races you see DIFFERENTLY from the public.
That might mean you dislike the favourite, or you like him but you believe he's
overbet. Or maybe you hate the second choice, and can structure some exactas or
trifectas against him.
Or perhaps the crowd is letting a horse who should be 6/1 away at 18/1, and you
have a chance for a score.
It helps to understand why the fans are making each horse the odds they are. If
the favourite just ran a high-rated race but you know that the horse had an all-
time perfect trip to win and is unlikely to repeat, that could be your edge.
Or maybe the horse shows a big "trouble line" but you've seen the race and know
that the horse simply wasn't very good. Or the horse was a star last year but ha
sn't done much this season, yet the crowd bets him on the basis of past glories.
Or your longshot's last race was far better than it looks in the past performanc
es.
Perhaps you have an information edge. Maybe you know that a horse's string of sl
ick workouts were done "all out" and were unimpressive. Or you're a body languag
e expert and see that the favourite shows up with new front wraps and looks much
worse than usual.
Or you keep detailed track profiles and you see that today's race might give the
edge to a front-runner who's been getting caught lately.
Maybe your interpretation of the match-up is more insightful. The crowd may not
understand that the horse with big early speed is likely to be forced wide into
the first turn and may well be eliminated. Or that the plodder who hasn't bother
ed anybody lately is finally in the spot he's waited for all his life; likely to
sit on the rail and pick up the tiring speed runners.
Whatever it is, you'll need to figure out why your INSIGHT into the race is diff
erent, and superior, to what the crowd says. Because if it's the same, then you
have no edge. And if you have no edge, why are you betting?
Sure, it's fun to be at the track, and there's always the temptation for action
but action isn't going to get you long-term profits.
What do you see in this race that the public does not? That's the question you s
hould be asking. Answer that, and you will know exactly what to do.
And now to a factor that follows on from what I've said. What do you do when you
make a big hit and the money rolls in?
Most of the time we win a few dollars, or lose a few. But, occasionally, it's BI
G SCORE time.
One nice thing about horse-racing, as compared with sports betting or blackjack
whether you're skilful or lucky, somewhere along the way you're probably going t
o make a score.
The term means different things to different bettors. A $10 punter who hits a tr
ifecta for $1800 has made a score. To a guy who bets $1200 in a Pick 6 a score i
s a $75,000 hit.
A score ordinarily means PRO that no matter what you do for the next few weeks o
r months, or maybe the rest of the year, you've got a nice profit. Assuming, of
course, you don't fritter it away.
The first aspect of proper money management if you'd had a big score is this: yo
u are not guaranteed to make another one! You don't become king of all handicapp
ers just because the stars aligned one day.
If you normally put $50 into a race and suddenly there's an extra $12,000 sittin
g snugly in your pocket, this is not the time to start betting $500.
You are not necessarily "hot" just because you got it right once for major money
. Your opinion, such as it is, doesn't become omnipotent just because you carted
home the track one particular day. You measure success in this game over the lo
ng haul. One day, even an unforgettable Let It Ride kind of day, is just that.
Remember that a score is often accompanied by luck. You keyed a 60/1 shot and fo
ur horses were locked in a battle for the lead, another broke down and another g
ot stopped cold in his tracks, so you won.
Or maybe you bet a speed horse who quit eight times in a row and figured to be i
n a speed duel, except that his two main rivals broke slowly from the barriers a
nd lost any chance.
It's rare that a wacky winner was that handicappable. For once, luck fell your w
ay, but that doesn't mean you're suddenly Einstein.
One potential source of trouble concerning big payouts is your friends, who may
be surprisingly unthrilled by your success.
Commonly, their envy (lucky him) will spill over to jealousy (why did he get so
lucky?).
Or you'll suddenly find yourself cast as the Bank of America (the guy just won $
17,000 and he can't lend me a lousy two hundred?).
So my advice about big scores is to keep them to yourself. If your mates are alr
eady wealthy, good, if not, they're unlikely to take a genuine delight unless th
ey were participants on your ticket.
Think about it: When you've just blown a $3000 photo-finish, how happy are you t
o learn that a mate made a $12,000 score because he had it the other way?
Tell your wife, if you must, though don't be surprised to see some new jewellery
. But your friends? They don't have to learn every detail about your operations.

So what are you going to do with the money? Let me now become Suze Orman and tel
l you that if you made a genuine score, it's time to take care of your credit ca
rd debt and car payments. Get rid of anything that costs you monthly interest.
The average household has an $8000 debt in credit cards. If this means you, wipe
it out! Do not simply say great, now your gambling bankroll is that much bigger
. Take care of business.
Buy something nice. Even if eventually you lose most of the big score, every tim
e you look at that big-screen TV or lounge or your plush new couch, you'll smile
.
And give some away, too. Not to your deadbeat friends, nor to that good-for-noth
ing son or daughter, but to charity. Some good people really do have nothing, an
d if you've got something, why not share?
Maybe your score will be the first of many, your bankroll ever-growing and your
handicapping light shining ever brighter. But maybe not.
Maybe it was a one-time thing, or a two-time thing, or a three-time thing?
And if you never make a grand score again, at least you've had the thrill of doi
ng it at least one beautiful time. Just don't let it go to your head.
If you start betting as if you are the greatest handicapper of all time, that sc
ore may become just a distant memory.
Barry Meadow is regarded as America's most authoritative expert on racing and be
tting. His books are best-sellers, as is his monthly newsletter.
For more details, check out Barry's website at www.trpublishing.com.
By Barry Meadow