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Deadlines, Deals and Delay:

Whats Left of the 2014 Congressional Agenda

ime is running short for the 113th Congress, with

less than fifty legislative days before the end of
the session. As usual, the key question is what will
Congress do for the rest of the year, and when will
they do it?
Further complicating matters are the 2014 midterm
Congressional elections, which could change
the balance of power in the U.S. Senate to the
Republican Party.
While crystal ball exercises are always difficult,
imperfect and sometimes unwise; this perspective
on policy and politics is intended to provide a
framework and perspective on what is left of
the 2014 U.S. legislative agenda, with particular
emphasis on policies impacting economic and
commercial sectors.
At this point in the year, there are three basic
windows for Congressional action:
Pre-November elections
Lame Duck period in Nov-Dec 2014
The 114th Congress that begins in January 2015.
Here are some thoughts on what might happen and
when.>>

May 2014 | 1

What Congress Must Do

Members of Congress are well aware of statutory deadlines
and expiring provisions facing them as they conclude a
session. What is more difficult to determine is when such
items might be approved and completed. Here are some
likely candidates for must-do issues
Appropriations Fiscal Year 2015 officially begins on the
calendar date of October 1, 2014. Despite calls for
passing all 13 appropriations bills in regular order, an
all-inclusive omnibus bill with the remaining
appropriations bills will likely be necessary. 2014
Sanctions Stage two Iran and Russia sanctions are
possibilities and dependent on external events such as
the Iran 5+1 nuclear negotiations and the fallout from
the recent Ukraine elections. If sanctions do occur, they
would likely happen quickly, if events take a turn for the
worse. 2014
Defense Authorization The National Defense
Authorization Act has passed the House and is being
considered in the Senate. There are minor sticking
points on the continuation of aging weapons systems
and Guantanamo Bay, but the bill has been approved
relatively on time in recent years. 2014
Transportation/Infrastructure Major Transportation
programs, including the highway trust fund, expire on
September 30, 2014, but there is no consensus yet for
a final bill since overall funding and gas tax provisions
remain in flux. Lame Duck
Terrorism Risk Insurance Act One of the possible items
to be completed by the Financial Services and Banking
Committees, this legislation will expire at years end.
Lame Duck
Tax Extenders/Tax Credits A number of long-standing
tax credits have expired or will expire in 2014, and action
on them has been slowed in the consideration of more
long-term structural tax reform. However, there may
be common ground on a small package of basic tax
provision extensions, but it is likely that some provision
will not be extended. Lame Duck
What Congress Says It Will Do
Given that we are in the midst of the campaign season
for the 2014 elections, MCs continue to make the usual
promises and calls for action that one would expect while
campaigning. Such statements are often the intent of what
members would like to get done; however, in reality, there
are only a few things that will be done. The following is a
rundown of major proposals touted in this election season
and their potential fates:
NSA Surveillance Reform While there is a consensus
among the House, Senate and White House for reform,

there is not yet a common vision, particularly among

some Senate leaders, but the public will for change
remains strong. 2014
Immigration Reform After getting significant support
and attention earlier from this Congress, consensus
has fallen apart on this national issue, particularly since
Republicans do not have a single position on this
issue in the midst of primary season. There is a chance
that moderate Republicans and Democrats may see a
window of opportunity to pass legislation to reposition
both parties positively for the 2016 elections. Lame
Duck
Medical Device Tax One of several potential changes
to the Affordable Care Act this year, there is broad
bipartisan support for changes to the funding of
Obamacare. However, President Obama will be
cautious about a potential slippery slope in modifying
his signature law, and identifying $27 billion in offset
funding will not be easy. Lame Duck
Trade Promotion Authority Providing President Obama
with so called fast-track authority to more confidently
negotiate trade agreements such as TTIP and TPP is not
a major priority on the current agenda, given concerns
about trade among elements of the Republican and
Democratic caucuses in both chambers. Lame Duck
Minimum Wage Democratic efforts in the Senate
to promote a signature Democratic issue and put
Republicans on the defense stalled as Republicans
opposed action. With states and localities voting to
raise wages, the economy slowly improving and the
House firmly opposed, opportunities are shrinking daily.
2015, if at all
Unemployment Insurance This issue was left out of last
Decembers budget deal as there were questions about
the necessity and feasibility of additional spending to
extend benefits. The Senate proposed a measure earlier
this year that was not adopted, but with unemployment
slowly declining and little interest in the House, it is not
likely to pass anytime soon. 2015, if at all
What Congress Will Do Later
The size, complexity and political difficulty of some issues
make them harder to achieve in a short period of time
since Congress must fully consider issues and develop a
consensus supportive of action. What is most difficult to
determine in this scenario is the difference between political
feasibility and political will. Often, delaying legislation is
based on risk-aversion and political expediency rather than
timelines and consensus. In the end, telling the difference
can be difficult, but the following overview is an attempt:
Tax Reform The emerging bipartisan consensus between
Republican House Ways and Means Chairman Dave
Camp (R-MI) and former Democratic Senate Finance
May 2014 | 2

Committee Max Baucus (D-MT), now U.S. ambassador

to China, has waned despite the best efforts of Sen. Ron
Wyden (D-OR) to move issues forward in 2014. In the
end, tax reform may be too large an issue to settle in
2014 or in the lame duck session. 2015
Housing Reform The Congressional appetite for
Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) reform
legislation to eliminate and replace Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac recently lost momentum due to concerns
about its impact on low and middle income housing and
the relative weakness of the housing market in the midst
of a mixed economic recovery. 2015
Energy Provisions and Keystone Pipeline Although these
two issues are not officially linked, many consider them
connected in a broader sense. Despite the removal of
major environmental concerns for Keystone, President
Obama has little incentive to approve construction
of the pipeline without getting anything in return,
particularly since environmental voters are a vocal
constituency who matter in the fall Congressional
elections and could support any remaining Obama
environmental policies. 2015
Debt Authorization (Debt Ceiling) Congress approved a
long-term debt authorization increase earlier this year
that is due to expire in March 2015. 2015
The Wild Card: The U.S. Senate
The one element that could upset and rearrange much
of the lame duck session is if Republicans gain control of
the U.S. Senate. This would present both sides with an
interesting challenge. For Democrats, the key question
would be whether or not or how much to compromise
and cut deals with Republicans, knowing that Democratic
power will be diminished in 2015. For Republicans, the key
issue is whether or not to block end-of-the-year deals on
Democratic-led legislation, a potentially risky strategy since
and Senate Democrats would likely have the power and the
will to block much of the 2015 GOP agenda, if motivated to
do so.
Concluding Thoughts
Control of the Senate is a key issue because it would be like
changing horses in mid-stream (and then going in a different
direction). The overall agenda would not necessarily be
dramatically different, given the even split in the U.S.
electorate. However, Republican control of the Senate,
assuming the House remains in Republican hands as well,
would create a major reprioritization of the agenda and
significant change in the political and substantive approach
for each issue.

For more information on the 2014 Congressional Agenda,

please contact:
Jonathan Gregory
Director
jgregory@apcoworldwide.com

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