l Global Research l

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix

All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2013 research.standardchartered.com
Euro-area peripheral sentiment improving
EU Commission sentiment survey

Sources: Eurostat, Standard Chartered Research
Greece
Portugal
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Key data releases/events
SC Prior
Monday 24 June
SG CPI, % y/y 2.0 1.5
TW IP, % y/y 0.40 -0.88
VN CPI, % y/y 6.60 6.36
DE IFO bus. climate indicator 106.2 105.7
Tuesday 25 June
HK Exports, % y/y 3.4 7.7
PH Trade balance, USD bn -0.71 -0.59
US Case-Shiller housing, % y/y 10.50 10.87
US Durable goods orders, % m/m 3.6 3.5
US New home sales, '000s SAAR 465 454
Wednesday 26 June
SG IP, % y/y 2.8 4.7
Thursday 27 June
TW Lead. indicators index, % m/m 0.6 0.5
TW Benchmark interest rate, % 1.875 1.875
EA Economic sentiment 90.0 89.4
US Core PCE price index, % y/y 1.1 1.1
US Personal income, % m/m 0.2 0.0
Friday 28 June
KR IP, % y/y -1.6 1.7
JP Hhold spending, % y/y 2.0 1.5
JP IP, % m/m, SA 1.2 0.9
JP Natl CPI ex-fresh food, % y/y -0.1 -0.4
JP Retail sales % y/y -0.1 -0.2
TH Current account, USD mn -1.64 -3.36
DE CPI, % y/y 1.6 1.6
US Chicago manufacturing PMI 55.0 58.7
25-30 June
VN GDP YTD, % y/y 5.0 4.9

Key central bank policy calls
Now Next Chg
US 0.25 Q3-2015 +25
Euro area 0.5 Q3-2015 +25
China 6.00 Q1-2014 +25
India 7.25 Q4-2013 -25
Korea 2.50 Jul-2013 -25
Indonesia 6.00 11-Jul-13 +25
Thailand 2.50 H2-2014 +25
South Africa 5.00 Q2-2014 +50
Brazil 8.00 10-Jul-13 +50
Source: Standard Chartered Research

Economics Weekly | 19:45 GMT 20 June 2013
21-Jun In the aftermath of the Fed

Markets will look for further guidance from Fed speakers
Euro-area surveys should confirm a positive trend
Japanese data likely to continue to benefit from policy stimulus
Elsewhere in Asia, activity is picking up, despite uncertainty in China

Overview
Sarah Hewin, +44 20 7885 6251, Sarah.Hewin@sc.com

Fed speakers this week are likely to add colour to the 19 June FOMC statement and
Chairman Bernankes comments. Bernanke warned that asset-purchase tapering
could begin later this year though the path of the economy remains key. This week,
durable goods orders, personal income and expenditure, and new home sales will be
in focus. The monthly core PCE inflation is expected to remain near record lows, but
Bernanke expressed confidence that inflation will move higher in the medium term.

Strong headline US durable goods orders (DGO) are likely, due to a surge in aircraft
orders. But ISM new orders were weak, and a likely contraction in core DGO
(ex-transportation) would suggest a softening investment trend. We expect modest
growth in personal spending, but will be looking for signs that the fiscal squeeze is
taking a toll. US housing data (the S&P Case-Shiller housing price index and new
home sales) are likely to confirm the ongoing uptrend in the real estate market.

Competitiveness, jobs and growth will be the themes at the EU leaders summit on
27-28 June, with discussions on country-specific structural reforms and national
budgets (concluding the 2013 European co-ordination semester). Banking union will
also be on the agenda, with difficult questions on the restructuring and winding up of
failing banks still to be resolved. Euro-area economic surveys have improved in the
past couple of months, although they still point to weak activity. Sentiment indicators
are expected to confirm that the regions economy is moving in the right direction,
albeit at a very modest pace, with even the peripheral economies doing better. The
IFO business climate index should indicate that Germany is leading the other major
economies in the region, even though manufacturing remains soft.

It is a busy data week in Japan; we expect to see ongoing signs that policy stimulus,
optimism over reforms and yen depreciation are supporting economic recovery.
Industrial production, retail sales and household spending should continue to recover,
while deflation is likely to have moderated in May.

Elsewhere in Asia, there should be further signs that activity is picking up gradually,
despite nervousness about Chinas economy and the liquidity squeeze there.
Industrial production should move higher in Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, and
GDP is likely to have accelerated in Vietnam in Q2-2013. Trade data in Hong Kong,
the Philippines and Thailand may, however, reveal still-weak global demand.
Taiwans central bank is expected to remain cautious at its policy meeting on
27 June; we have lowered our growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.9% in 2013, lowered
our CPI forecast, and pushed back our first rate hike expectation to Q1-2014.


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 2
Key events/data in the week ahead
Africa
Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous
Wednesday 26 June
Ghana CPI, % y/y May 10:00 10.5 10.6
Friday 28 June
South Africa Trade balance, ZAR bn May 12:00 -10.00 -15.02

Asia
Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous
Friday 21 June
Vietnam National assembly releases economic assessment
Monday 24 June
Taiwan Unemployment rate, %, SA May 00:30 4.17 4.19
Singapore CPI, % y/y May 05:00 2.0 1.5
Taiwan Industrial production, % y/y May 08:00 0.40 -0.88
Vietnam CPI, % y/y Jun 6.60 6.36
Tuesday 25 June
Philippines Trade balance, USD bn Apr 01:00 -0.71 -0.59
Philippines Imports, % y/y Apr 01:00 -0.5 -8.4
Philippines Total monthly imports, USD bn Apr 01:00 4.75 4.92
Hong Kong Trade balance, HKD bn May 08:30 -36.5 -42.7
Hong Kong Exports, % y/y May 08:30 3.4 7.7
Hong Kong Imports, % y/y May 08:30 3.5 9.0
Wednesday 26 June
Singapore Industrial production, % y/y May 05:00 2.8 4.7
New Zealand Trade balance, NZD mn May 22:45 350 157
New Zealand Exports, NZD bn May 22:45 4.10 3.95
New Zealand Imports, NZD bn May 22:45 3.75 3.80
Thursday 27 June
Taiwan Leading indicators index, % m/m May 08:00 0.6 0.5
Taiwan Benchmark interest rate, % 27-Jun 09:00 1.875 1.875
South Korea Industrial production, % y/y May 23:00 -1.6 1.7
South Korea Industrial production, % m/m, SA May 23:00 0.5 0.8
Japan Overall hhold spending, % y/y May 23:30 2.0 1.5
Japan Jobless rate, % May 23:30 4.2 4.1
Japan Job-to-applicant ratio May 23:30 0.89 0.89
Japan Natl CPI, % y/y May 23:30 -0.5 -0.7
Japan Natl CPI ex fresh food, % y/y May 23:30 -0.1 -0.4
Japan Natl CPI ex food, energy, % y/y May 23:30 -0.3 -0.6
Japan Industrial production, % m/m, SA May P 23:50 1.2 0.9
Japan Industrial production, % y/y May P 23:50 -0.9 -3.4
Japan Retail sales, % m/m, SA May 23:50 1.1 0.6
Japan Retail sales, % y/y May 23:50 -0.1 -0.2
Friday 28 June
Thailand Current account, USD mn May 07:30 -1.64 -3.36
Thailand Private investment, % m/m May 07:30 -0.8 -1.6
Thailand Private consumption, % m/m May 07:30 1.0 -0.5
India Current account deficit, USD bn Q1 11:30 18.5 32.5
25-30 Jun
Vietnam Retail sales YTD, % y/y Jun 12.7 11.9
Vietnam Industrial production, % y/y Jun 8.0 6.7
Vietnam GDP YTD, % y/y Q2 5.0 4.9
Vietnam Imports YTD, % y/y Jun 20.6 20.5
Vietnam Exports YTD, % y/y Jun 19.3 18.0
Vietnam Trade balance, USD mn Jun 927 -553
24-26 June
Thailand Customs-based exports, % y/y May 07:30 -4.4 2.8
Thailand Customs-based imports, % y/y May 07:30 -4.0 8.9
Thailand Customs-based trade balance, USD mn May 07:30 -1.76 -4.14



Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 3
Europe
Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous
Friday 21 June
UK PSNB ex interventions, GBP bn May 08:30 12.6 6.3
Euro area ECB announces 3Y LTRO payment Weekly 10:00
Monday 24 June
Germany IFO business climate June 08:00 106.2 105.7
Wednesday 26 June
Germany GfK consumer confidence July 06:00 6.5 6.5
UK CBI reported sales May 09:00 -6 -11
Thursday 27 June
Germany Unemployment change, 000s June 07:55 10 21
Germany Unemployment rate, % June 07:55 6.9 6.9
Euro area M3 money supply, % y/y May 08:30 3.3 3.2
UK GDP, % q/q (final) Q1 08:30 0.3 -0.3
Euro area Economic sentiment June 09:00 90.0 89.4
Euro area Business climate June 09:00 -0.62 -0.76
EU EU leaders summit 13.45
Friday 28 June
Switzerland KOF leading indicator June 07:00 1.15 1.10
Germany CPI, EU harmonised, % y/y June P 09:00 1.6 1.6

Latin America
Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous
Friday 21 June
Brazil IPCA-15 inflation % m/m Jun 14:00 0.36 0.46
Mexico Monetary policy meeting minutes Jun 15:00
Monday 24 June
Brazil Central bank weekly economist survey 13:30
Mexico Bi-weekly CPI % bw/bw Jun-15 15:00 0.04 0.02
Tuesday 25 June
Mexico IGAE economic activity index % y/y (m/m) Apr 15:00 1.6 (0.2) -1.8 (0.3)
Friday 28 June
Chile Monetary policy meeting minutes Jun 14:30
Colombia Monetary policy decision, % Jun 3.25 3.25

United States
Economy Key data/event Period GMT Forecast Previous
Monday 24 June
United States Feds Fisher speaks in London 16:30
Tuesday 25 June
United States Durable goods orders, % m/m May 12:30 3.6 3.5
United States Durable goods orders ex transportation, % m/m May 12:30 -0.5 1.5
United States S&P Case-Shiller 20-city housing price, % y/y Apr 13:00 10.5 10.87
United States Conference board consumer confidence Jun 14:00 75.2 76.2
United States New home sales, 000s SAAR May 14:00 465 454
Wednesday 26 June
United States GDP, %q/q SAAR Q1 T 12:30 2.3 2.4
United States Core PCE, % q/q Q1 T 12:30 1.3 1.3
Thursday 27 June
United States Initial jobless claims, 000s 21 Jun 12:30 345 354
United States Core PCE price index, % y/y May 12:30 1.1 1.1
United States Personal income, % m/m May 12:30 0.2 0.0
United States Personal spending, % m/m May 12:30 0.3 -0.2
United States Pending home sales, m/m May 14:00 1.1 0.3
United States Feds Powell speaks on monetary policy 14:30
United States Feds Lockhart speaks on the economy 16:30
Friday 28 June
United States Feds Lacker speaks on economic outlook 13:15
United States Chicago manufacturing PMI Jun 13:45 55.0 58.7
United States U of Michigan consumer confidence Jun F 13:55 83.0 82.7
United States Feds Williams speaks on monetary policy 19:30


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 4
Recent macro publications (13-19 June 2013)

On the Ground Taiwan Still on the path to recovery
Eddie Cheung | Lawrence Lai | Tony Phoo
We lower our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 3.0% (from 3.9%); keep 2014 forecast unchanged at 4.3%
We revise down our 2013 inflation forecast to 1.4% (from 1.8%); revise up 2014 to 1.9% (from 1.3%)
We expect policy makers to keep the benchmark rate unchanged in 2013 and resume hikes in Q1-2014
We revise up our USD-TWD forecasts, in line with our GDP growth and inflation forecasts
We have an Underweight duration outlook on TWD bonds; curve to bear steepen on rising UST yields

On the Ground China The smog in Beijing
Lan Shen | Li Wei | Stephen Green
The really important trends to define 2013-14 growth in China resist analysis
The bonfire of the chops has just started, again and Premier Li reportedly wants more
Some are calling for a rate cut, but it is very unclear what help this would be
We revise down our CPI inflation calls for 2013-14 and push our rate hike call into 2014

Economic Alert India RBI is cautious now, data-dependent later
Anubhuti Sahay Nagaraj Kulkarni Priyanka Kishore Samiran Chakraborty
The RBI leaves policy rates unchanged on recent INR weakness and upside risks to inflation
We expect no rate cut in July on marginally higher inflation; a rate cut in H2-FY14 is data-dependent
Supply pressure to offset support from rate-cut expectations; we remain Neutral duration
A dovish RBI is positive for the INR but global conditions will determine the extent of recent gains

On the Ground Philippines Infrastructure boom to boost growth
Jeff Ng
We now expect the economy to grow faster 6.9% in 2013, 6.3% in 2014 and 7.0% in 2015
Core scenario: GDP growth to be boosted by PPP and non-PPP investment growth, and to peak in 2015
We expect more PPP projects to be finalised by end-2013, and PPP construction to peak in 2014-15

On the Ground United States Fed likely to emphasise gradualism
John Calverley | John Davies | Sophii Weng | Thomas Costerg
Chairman Bernanke is set to hint that policy tightening remains distant as the economy is still fragile
We still expect the Fed to start reducing QE in January, although risks are skewed towards an earlier date
The underlying momentum is softer than initially expected: we lower slightly our H2 growth forecast

Economic Alert India We expect a repo rate cut; it is a close call
Anubhuti Sahay | Nagaraj Kulkarni | Priyanka Kishore | Samiran Chakraborty
We expect the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps on 17 June
Recent INR weakness and inflation worries pose risks to this view and may keep the RBI on hold
Rates market does not expect a repo rate cut; stay Neutral GoISec duration
Indication of no more rate cuts may stall INR gains ahead of the FOMC outcome on 19 June

Economic Alert Pakistan FY14 budget to stimulate growth
Sayem Ali
The PMLN governments first budget targets 4.4% growth and a 35% increase in investment spending
The FY14 deficit target is 6.3% of GDP, down from 8.8% in FY13, on higher taxes and subsidy cuts
The budget is in line with IMF requirements for approval of a new USD 5bn Extended Term Facility
Positive for the PKR; bond yields are likely to rise on inflation concerns and increased deficit financing


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 5
Summary tables
Central bank outlook

Bold, underlined: Change in forecast since last Economics Weekly Source: Standard Chartered Research
Current 1Y change Next
Benchmark rate (%) (bps) Meeting Date SC forecast Date Action
Majors
US Fed f unds target rate 0.25 0 31-Jul-13 Q3-2015 +25bps 15-Dec-08 -75bps
Euro area Ref i rate 0.50 -50 4-Jul-13 Q3-2015 +25bps 2-May-13 -25bps
UK Bank rate 0.50 0 4-Jul-13 Q1-2015 +25bps 5-Mar-09 -50bps
Japan O/N call rate 0.0 - 0.1 0 11-Jul-13 Q1-2016 +10bps 19-Dec-08 -20bps
Canada O/N lending rate 1.00 0 17-Jul-13 Q3-2014 +25bps 9-Sep-10 +25bps
Australia Cash rate 2.75 -75 2-Jul-13 Q3-2013 -25bps 7-May-13 -25bps
New Zealand Cash rate 2.50 0 25-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps 10-Mar-11 -50bps
Switzerland 3M LIBOR target 0.0-0.25 0 19-Sep-13 on hold -- 3-Aug-11 -25bps
Asia
China 1Y lending rate 6.00 -25 N/A Q1-2014 +25bps 6-Jul-12 -31bps
Hong Kong Base rate 0.50 0 31-Jul-13 Q3-2015 +25bps 16-Dec-08 -100bps
Taiwan Discount rate 1.88 0 27-Jun-13 Q1-2014 +12.5bps 30-Jun-11 +12.5bps
Korea Base rate 2.50 -75 11-Jul-13 Jul-13 -25bps 9-May-13 -25bps
Philippines Reverse repo rate 3.50 -50 25-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps 25-Oct-12 -25bps
Malaysia O/N policy rate 3.00 0 11-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps 5-May-11 +25bps
Indonesia BI rate 6.00 25 11-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 +25bps 13-Jun-13 +25bps
Thailand 1-day repo 2.50 -100 10-Jul-13 H2-2014 +25bps 29-May-13 -25bps
India Repo rate 7.25 -75 30-Jul-13 Q4-2013 -25bps 3-May-13 -25bps
Pakistan Discount rate 9.50 -250 Jun-13 Jan-14 +50bps 7-Dec-12 -50bps
Sri Lanka Repo rate 7.00 -50 12-Jul-13 Q1-2014 -25bps 10-May-13 -50bps
Vietnam Ref i rate 7.00 -500 N/A Q3-2013 -50bps 13-May-13 -100bps
Other Emerging Markets
South Af rica Repo rate 5.00 -50 18-Jul-13 Q2-2014 +50bps 19-Jul-12 -50bps
Kenya Central bank rate 8.50 700 July-2013 Q2-2014 +50bps 7-May-13 -100bps
Nigeria Monetary policy rate 12.00 575 23-Jul-2013 Q1-2014 +100bps 20-Sep-11 +275bps
Ghana Prime rate 16.00 200 19-Jul-13 Q1-2014 -50bps 22-May-12 +100bps
Uganda Central bank rate 11.00 800 Jul-2013 Mar-14 +50bps 4-Dec-12 -50bps
Brazil Selic rate 8.00 -50 10-Jul-13 10-Jul-13 +50bps May-13 +50bps
Chile Overnight rate 5.00 0 11-Jul-13 Q4-2013 +25bps Jan-12 -25bps
Colombia Min. repo rate 3.25 -200 28-Jun-13 Q4-2013 +25bps Mar-13 -50.bps
Mexico TdF Rate 4.00 -50 12-Jul-13 Q3-2013 -50bps Mar-13 -50.bps
Peru Ref erence rate 4.25 0 11-Jul-13 Q1-2014 +25bps May-11 +25bps
Turkey 1-week repo 4.50 -125 23-Jul-13 Sept -13 -25bps 16-May-13 -50bps
UAE Overnight repo rate 1.00 -50 N/A N/A +25bps 19-Dec-08 -25bps
Saudi Arabia Reverse repo rate 0.25 -50 N/A N/A +25bps 16-Jun-09 -25bps
Last change Forecast next change
We expect QE to continue until year-end at USD 85bn/month, before being reduced slowly.
The ECB is likely to utilise non-conventional policies to further stimulate growth
We expect the asset-purchase total to rise to GBP 400bn by end Q3-2013.
The monetary base target is an annual pace of about JPY60-70tn.
We expect BI to hike the BI rate and the FASBI rate both by 50bps to 6.50%and 4.75% respectively in Q3-2013


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 6
Rates forecasts
Forecasts in BLUE (RED) indicate upward (downward) revision

Source: Standard Chartered Research
End-period Current Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14
% % % % %
United States Policy rate 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25
3M LIBOR 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
10Y bond yield 2.36 2.40 2.10 2.25 2.50 2.75
Euro area Policy rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
3M EURIBOR 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
10Y bond yield 1.56 1.75 1.50 1.60 1.75 2.00
United Kingdom Policy rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
3M LIBOR 0.51 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70
10Y bond yield 2.13 2.30 2.00 2.15 2.35 2.60
Australia Policy rate 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 3.00 3.25
3M OIS 2.65 2.65 2.50 2.85 3.10 3.25
China Policy rate 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.75
7-day repo rate 10.77 4.50 3.50 4.00 4.30 5.00
10Y bond yield 3.46 3.45 3.60 3.90 4.10 4.30
Hong Kong 3M HIBOR 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
10Y bond yield 1.66 1.60 1.65 1.75 1.90 2.30
India Policy rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.00
91-day T-bill rate 7.41 7.00 7.00 7.20 7.20 7.25
10Y bond yield 7.35 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75
Indonesia Policy rate 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
FASBI rate 4.25 4.25 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
10Y bond yield 6.73 6.75 7.00 7.10 7.20 7.30
Malaysia Policy rate 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25
3M KLIBOR 3.21 3.20 3.20 3.45 3.45 3.45
10Y bond yield 3.50 3.40 3.50 3.70 3.75 3.80
Philippines Policy rate 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00
3M PDST-F 1.96 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50
10Y bond yield 3.35 3.50 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.50
Singapore 3M SGD SIBOR 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
10Y bond yield 2.11 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.20 2.40
South Korea Policy rate 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
91-day CD rate 2.69 2.60 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10
10Y bond yield 3.24 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40
Taiwan Policy rate 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 2.00 2.13
3M TAIBOR 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.96 1.02
10Y bond yield 1.39 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55
Thailand Policy rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
3M BIBOR 2.55 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75
10Y bond yield 3.75 3.55 3.55 3.60 3.60 3.70
Vietnam Policy rate (Ref i rate) 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Overnight VNIBOR 0.93 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00
2Y bond yield 6.70 6.50 6.60 6.70 7.00 7.50
Ghana Policy rate 15.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 15.50 14.50
91-day T-bill rate 23.10 21.70 20.00 19.00 18.20 16.20
5Y bond yield 19.35 19.00 17.50 17.00 17.50 17.00
Kenya Policy rate 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.00
91-day T-bill rate 5.42 10.20 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.80
10Y bond yield 11.85 11.80 12.50 12.00 11.70 11.50
Nigeria Policy rate 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 13.00 13.00
91-day T-bill rate 11.48 11.90 11.40 10.90 11.90 11.70
10Y bond yield 14.75 14.00 13.00 13.80 14.20 15.00
South Af rica Policy rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.50
91-day T-bill rate 5.21 5.19 5.22 5.26 5.38 5.56
10Y bond yield 7.59 7.75 7.65 7.55 7.50 7.50


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 7
Macro forecasts
Forecasts in BLUE (RED) indicate upward (downward) revision

* Fiscal year starts in April in India and Kuwait, July in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt ^ Inflation: Core PCE deflator used for US
Source: Standard Chartered Research
Country
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14
Majors 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8
US^ 1.7 2.2 1.8 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1 -2.9 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Euro area 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 1.3 1.5 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.29 1.32 1.29 1.30 1.27
Japan -0.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 98.0 96.0 97.0 102.0 102.0
UK 0.9 -0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 4.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 -1.9 -3.8 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 1.48 1.52 1.46 1.48 1.47
Canada 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 -3.0 -3.2 -2.8 -2.6 -2.3 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.02
Switzerland 1.9 0.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 0.3 -0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 10.5 12.7 12.3 10.5 10.0 0.97 0.95 0.98 0.98 1.03
Australia 2.5 3.6 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.3 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.6 -2.4 -3.7 -4.1 -3.9 -5.9 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.94
New Zealand 1.3 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 4.1 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.3 -4.0 -5.0 -5.6 -5.8 -6.4 0.82 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.89
Asia 7.3 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.7 5.8 3.7 3.6 4.3 3.7 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.8
Bangladesh* 6.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 8.8 10.6 7.7 7.5 8.0 0.9 1.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 77.80 77.00 76.00 77.00 77.00
China 9.2 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 5.4 2.6 2.8 4.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.9 6.18 6.15 6.13 6.10 6.07
CNH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.160 6.140 6.120 6.080 6.050
Hong Kong 5.0 1.4 3.4 4.5 4.5 5.3 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.0 5.2 3.0 3.5 4.5 5.0 7.765 7.765 7.780 7.800 7.810
India* 6.2 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 8.7 7.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 -4.2 -5.2 -4.4 -3.8 -3.7 54.50 53.50 53.00 52.00 53.00
Indonesia 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.7 5.4 4.3 5.2 5.1 4.8 0.2 -2.8 -2.1 -1.0 -0.4 9,950 9,900 9,800 9,700 9,800
Malaysia 5.1 5.6 4.7 5.3 5.0 3.2 1.7 2.6 3.4 2.7 11.0 6.4 8.0 10.0 10.0 3.12 3.10 3.07 3.00 3.08
Pakistan* 2.4 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.5 13.9 10.8 8.5 9.0 9.0 0.3 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 -2.2 101.00 103.00 105.00 106.50 107.00
Philippines 3.6 6.8 6.9 6.3 7.0 4.8 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 42.00 41.50 41.25 41.00 41.75
Singapore 5.3 1.3 3.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 4.6 3.9 3.5 3.5 21.9 18.6 17.0 19.0 20.0 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.26
South Korea 3.6 2.0 2.5 3.8 3.6 4.0 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.8 2.4 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.2 1,130 1,100 1,110 1,080 1,080
Sri Lanka 8.3 6.4 6.5 7.2 8.0 6.7 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.5 -7.6 -6.6 -4.5 -4.0 -3.8 126.5 126.0 125.0 124.0 123.5
Taiwan 4.0 1.3 3.0 4.3 4.8 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 8.8 10.2 8.0 7.0 7.5 29.95 29.80 29.30 28.90 29.30
Thailand 0.1 6.4 4.0 5.5 6.0 3.8 2.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 3.7 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -1.5 30.50 30.25 30.25 30.00 30.50
Vietnam 5.9 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.5 18.6 9.3 7.2 8.2 5.8 -5.5 0.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.8 21,000 21,000 21,000 20,900 20,800
Africa 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 8.5 8.5 7.0 7.7 7.5 1.7 -1.8 -2.0 -2.5 -2.6
Angola 3.7 6.8 7.4 5.5 5.5 15.0 10.7 8.5 8.0 7.5 12.0 8.5 8.0 6.0 5.5 96.00 96.30 96.50 96.90 97.10
Botswana 8.0 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 6.9 7.5 6.3 5.9 5.7 -1.5 3.9 3.4 2.7 2.4 8.05 8.03 7.98 7.69 7.86
Cameroon 3.5 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 -3.8 -4.0 -3.8 -3.5 -3.5 508.5 496.9 508.5 504.6 516.5
Cte d'lvoire -5.8 8.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.0 -3.0 -1.5 -3.0 -3.0 508.5 496.9 508.5 504.6 516.5
The Gambia -5.0 -1.7 9.7 8.3 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 -17.0 -14.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 33.50 34.00 35.00 36.00 36.50
Ghana 14.4 7.9 8.2 7.6 7.2 9.0 9.4 10.9 9.3 7.4 -9.2 -9.8 -8.5 -9.5 -8.2 2.01 2.03 2.06 2.10 2.16
Kenya 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2 14.0 9.6 6.0 6.6 6.1 -9.3 -13.7 -12.2 -11.0 -9.0 87.00 88.00 88.50 89.00 89.00
Nigeria 7.2 6.9 6.6 7.3 7.5 10.9 12.3 9.4 13.0 13.4 12.2 6.0 3.8 2.1 1.0 159.0 158.00 159.80 160.4 162.0
Sierra Leone 5.2 20.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 16.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 -50.0 -9.0 -7.0 -6.0 -7.0 4,340 4,350 4,360 4,380 4,390
South Af rica 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 -3.4 -6.3 -5.9 -5.5 -5.4 10.30 10.05 10.20 10.30 10.50
Tanzania 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.2 11.3 15.6 9.8 7.4 6.7 -9.5 -16.0 -13.4 -11.5 -10.2 1,630 1,660 1,650 1,660 1,665
Uganda 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.0 5.6 18.7 14.6 5.5 8.2 8.1 -10.2 -11.0 -12.5 -11.7 -9.9 2,680 2,720 2,750 2,770 2,790
Zambia 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.8 6.4 7.3 7.4 6.2 3.2 1.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 5.20 5.10 5.05 5.10 5.30
MENA 6.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.2 8.9 9.0 7.6 7.5 7.0
Bahrain 1.9 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.5 -0.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 12.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Egypt* 1.8 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.5 11.3 8.7 7.7 8.5 8.0 -2.6 -3.1 -2.9 -2.5 -2.1 6.88 6.95 6.98 7.16 7.20
Jordan 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 -12.0 -14.1 -9.9 -8.0 -6.5 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Kuwait* 6.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 4.4 2.6 3.7 3.6 30.0 40.0 35.0 35.0 30.0 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Lebanon 1.5 1.3 2.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 6.4 5.5 5.0 4.5 -17.5 -18.0 -16.0 -15.0 -14.0 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
Oman 4.5 8.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 10.0 12.0 7.5 7.0 7.0 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Qatar 16.9 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.8 2.4 2.1 3.8 5.1 3.4 32.0 30.0 27.0 25.0 24.0 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64
Saudi Arabia 6.8 6.8 4.8 4.2 3.9 6.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.2 22.0 21.0 19.5 18.7 18.7 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Turkey 8.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.8 6.5 9.0 7.6 6.8 7.0 -9.8 -7.5 -8.0 -7.2 -7.6 1.85 1.85 1.80 1.80 1.80
UAE 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 0.9 1.5 2.9 2.8 3.2 11.2 10.2 8.5 7.4 7.1 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67
Latin America 3.9 2.2 3.5 4.1 4.1 7.0 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.2 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0
Argentina 6.5 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 23.5 25.0 28.0 25.0 23.0 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.25 5.45 5.65 5.85 6.05
Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.2 4.0 3.6 6.5 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.3 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 2.16 2.07 2.03 2.00 2.02
Chile 5.9 5.6 4.5 5.0 5.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 -1.3 -3.8 -4.2 -3.2 -3.0 505 500 490 480 485
Colombia 5.7 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 3.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.3 -2.7 -3.0 1,910 1,880 1,850 1,820 1,850
Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 13.05 12.75 12.40 11.99 11.90
Peru 6.9 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 3.4 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 2.75 2.70 2.65 2.63 2.62
Global 3.1 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.8 -- -- -- -- --
Current account (% of GDP) Inflation (yearly average %) Real GDP growth (%) FX


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 8
Forecasts Equity

MSCI DM
Data as of 18 Jun 2013
Aggregate Weight
1
EPS growth PE ratio PBV
Dividend
yield
Dividend
payout
Performance
Country

2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD
Australia 3% -4% 9% 10% 15 14 13 1.9 1.9 1.8 5% 69% 5%
Canada 4% -1% 4% 12% 14 14 12 1.8 1.7 1.6 3% 44% 0%
Euro area 12% -10% 14% 14% 14 13 11 1.3 1.3 1.2 4% 48% 4%
Japan 9% 15% 57% 20% 24 15 13 1.3 1.2 1.1 2% 31% 27%
New Zealand <1% -3% 8% 13% 18 16 14 1.8 1.9 1.8 5% 82% 3%
Switzerland 4% 0% 17% 12% 17 15 13 2.5 2.3 2.1 3% 48% 13%
United States 54% 7% 7% 11% 16 15 14 2.5 2.3 2.1 2% 31% 16%
United Kingdom 9% -6% 3% 9% 12 12 11 1.8 1.7 1.6 4% 47% 8%
MSCI DM

2% 11% 12% 16 14 13 2.0 1.8 1.7 3% 38% 11%



EPS growth PE ratio PBV
Dividend
yield
Dividend
payout
Performance
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD
Consumer Discretionary 19% 21% 15% 19 16 14 2.7 2.5 2.3 2% 30% 18%
Consumer Staples 6% 9% 10% 19 17 16 3.6 3.3 3.1 3% 49% 13%
Energy -4% 0% 10% 12 12 11 1.6 1.5 1.4 3% 37% 6%
Financials 7% 20% 10% 15 12 11 1.2 1.1 1.0 3% 38% 11%
Health Care 4% 2% 9% 16 16 14 3.3 3.1 2.8 2% 37% 19%
Industrials 3% 9% 14% 16 15 13 2.4 2.2 2.0 2% 37% 11%
Information Technology 3% 7% 13% 16 15 13 3.0 2.7 2.4 2% 26% 10%
Materials -23% 10% 19% 15 14 12 1.7 1.6 1.5 3% 39% -7%
Telecommunication Services -4% 9% 9% 15 13 12 2.0 1.9 1.8 5% 64% 10%
Utilities 3% 9% 17% 18 16 14 1.4 1.3 1.3 4% 72% 7%

MSCI EM
Data as of 18 Jun 2013
Aggregate Current
12-month
index
12-month
return
Weight
1
EPS growth PE ratio PBV
Dividend
yield
Dividend
payout
Performance
Country local index forecast
2
forecast
2


2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD
Brazil 49,465 60,500 22% 12% -28% 21% 13% 13 11 10 1.3 1.3 1.2 4% 43% -11%
Chile

2% -26% 23% 23% 22 18 14 2.0 1.8 1.7 2% 43% -9%
China 9,734 14,500 49% 18% 0% 11% 11% 10 9 8 1.4 1.3 1.2 4% 32% -11%
Colombia

1% -3% 11% 11% 17 16 14 1.8 1.6 1.5 4% 63% -12%
Egypt

<1% -3% 25% 20% 11 9 7 1.3 1.3 1.1 5% 40% -12%
India (FY) 19,223 22,000 14% 7% 9% 12% 15% 16 14 12 2.5 2.2 1.9 2% 24% -2%
Indonesia 4,840 4,800 -1% 3% 7% 6% 17% 17 15 13 3.7 3.3 2.8 3% 40% 7%
Korea 1,901 2,100 10% 15% 9% 21% 16% 10 8 7 1.2 1.0 0.9 1% 10% -7%
Malaysia 1,774 1,750 -1% 4% 11% 1% 10% 16 16 15 2.2 2.1 2.0 3% 51% 7%
Mexico 39,460 55,000 39% 5% 23% 12% 14% 19 17 15 2.8 2.5 2.3 2% 30% -9%
Morocco

<1% -3% 11% 5% 11 10 10 2.2 2.0 1.8 5% 54% -9%
Peru

<1% -6% -0% 11% 11 11 10 2.5 2.1 1.8 3% 30% -25%
Philippines 6,519 8,000 23% 1% 13% 6% 9% 21 19 18 3.2 2.9 2.7 2% 42% 12%
Russia 1,314 1,800 37% 6% -12% -0% 1% 5 5 5 0.7 0.6 0.6 4% 21% -8%
South Africa 36,599 34,000 -7% 7% 6% 6% 14% 15 13 12 2.3 2.1 1.9 4% 49% -3%
Taiwan 8,011 9,700 21% 12% -1% 35% 13% 20 14 13 1.8 1.7 1.6 3% 46% 3%
Thailand 1,427 1,650 16% 3% 13% 10% 13% 14 13 11 2.3 2.2 1.9 3% 42% -4%
Turkey 77,740 96,000 23% 2% 19% 10% 9% 11 11 10 1.8 1.6 1.4 3% 31% -1%
MSCI EM 954 1,200 26%

-3% 10% 12% 11 10 9 1.5 1.4 1.3 3% 31% -10%

Aggregate EPS growth PE ratio PBV
Dividend
yield
Dividend
payout
Performance
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 YTD
Consumer Discretionary 4% 10% 15% 13 11 10 2.0 1.9 1.6 2% 20% -6%
Consumer Staples 13% 7% 17% 24 23 20 3.8 3.6 3.2 2% 49% -4%
Energy -16% 3% 3% 7 6 6 0.8 0.8 0.7 4% 27% -16%
Financials 7% 5% 12% 10 9 8 1.4 1.3 1.2 4% 32% -8%
Health Care 19% 14% 20% 24 22 18 3.5 3.3 2.9 1% 29% -2%
Industrials -7% 5% 26% 15 14 11 1.4 1.4 1.3 2% 31% -9%
Information Technology 41% 37% 13% 14 10 9 2.1 1.9 1.6 2% 19% -2%
Materials -42% 14% 15% 13 12 10 1.2 1.2 1.1 3% 37% -23%
Telecommunication Services 3% 2% 7% 13 12 12 2.1 2.1 1.9 5% 56% -9%
Utilities 10% 7% 16% 12 12 10 0.9 1.0 0.9 4% 44% -8%
Notes: All country data refers to local currency, aggregate data to USD;
EPS = earnings per share, PE = price/earnings, PBV = price to book value;
Sources: FactSet, except (1) MSCI, (2) Standard Chartered Research


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 9
Commodities forecasts

*weekly quote; **monthly average; ***10 tonne contract;
1
no forward price comparison available;
2
cost and freight at Chinas Tianjin port, 62%
iron content, Indian origin;
#
6th contract;
Sources: Bloomberg, Platts, Standard Chartered Research
Market
close
m/m
Change
YTD
y/y Q1 - 13 Q2 - 13 vs Fwd Q3 - 13 vs Fwd Q4 - 13 vs Fwd Q1 - 14 vs Fwd 2012 2013 vs Fwd 2014 vs Fwd
12-Jun-13 % % % A F % F % F % F % A F % F %
Crude oil (nearby future, USD/b)
NYMEXWTI 95.9 -0.1 +3.6 +15.1 94 93 -1% 98 2% 98 3% 98 5% 94.2 96 1% 99 9%
ICE Brent 103.5 +0.0 -7.4 +5.9 113 106 2% 110 7% 108 6% 105 3% 111.7 109 4% 105 6%
Dubai spot
1
99.9 -0.5 -6.4 +4.2 108 103 - 107 - 105 - 102 - 108.9 106 - 103 -
Refined oil products cracks and spreads
Singapore naphtha (USD/b)
1
-6.0 +3.6 +47.4 -64.1 -1.8 -3 - -2 - 2 - - - -5.5 -1.2 - - -
Singapore jet kerosene (USD/b)
1
15.9 +4.0 -9.6 +3.5 20.2 17 - 18 - 19 - - - 17.8 18.6 - - -
Singapore gasoil (USD/b)
1
18.1 +5.7 +23.2 +22.5 19.5 17 - 18 - 19 - - - 17.1 18.2 - - -
Singapore regrade (USD/b)
1
-2.2 +19.8 -174.9 -463.3 0.7 -2 - -1 - -1 - - - 0.6 -0.6 - - -
Singapore fuel oil 180 (USD/b)
1
-2.9 -43.9 -74.3 -1070.2 -7.4 -6 - -7 - -6 - - - -3.3 -6.6 - - -
Europe jet (USD/b)
1
15.5 +10.8 -8.2 -11.8 18.9 14 - 15 - 14 - - - 18.4 15.5 - - -
Europe gasoil (USD/b)
1
13.1 +0.9 -2.0 -21.5 15.7 17 - 17 - 17 - - - 16.3 16.3 - - -
Rotterdam 3.5% barges (USD/b)
1
-12.0 +5.0 -41.2 +87.9 -16.1 -13 - -11 - -13 - - - -12.4 -13.0 - - -
Coal (USD/t)
API4 79 -2.3 -11.6 -6.6 86 82 1% 84 8% 87 9% 87 6% 93 85 4% 88 3%
API2 75 -8.8 -16.3 -12.1 87 83 3% 83 6% 85 4% 88 4% 94 84 3% 90 2%
globalCOAL NEWC*
1
87 -1.3 -8.0 -4.1 93 87 - 86 - 90 - 92 - 97 89 - 91 -
Base metals (LME 3m, USD/t)
Aluminium 1,864 -0.3 -10.2 -5.2 2,039 1,900 2% 2,000 8% 2,100 11% 2,200 15% 2,052 2,010 6% 2,200 13%
Copper 7,120 -4.5 -10.7 -4.2 7,952 7,250 0% 7,500 5% 7,750 9% 8,500 19% 7,948 7,613 4% 8,500 18%
Lead 2,118 +4.5 -9.9 +10.4 2,305 2,100 2% 2,200 4% 2,200 3% 2,400 12% 2,074 2,201 2% 2,400 11%
Nickel 14,275 -6.7 -16.4 -16.0 17,360 16,000 6% 17,000 19% 17,000 19% 18,000 25% 17,583 16,840 11% 18,000 24%
Tin 20,400 -2.4 -12.9 +4.8 24,058 22,000 5% 24,000 18% 24,000 18% 24,500 20% 21,113 23,515 10% 24,500 20%
Zinc 1,865 -0.6 -10.9 -1.6 2,052 1,900 3% 2,000 8% 2,100 11% 2,300 21% 1,965 2,013 6% 2,300 19%
Iron ore (USD/t)
Iron ore
2
124 -9.5 - -8.8 148 124 - 112 - 127 - 127 - 129 128 - 120 -
Steel** (CRU assessment, USD/t)
HRC, US
1
639 -3.5 - -13.3 680 638 - 606 - 576 - 759 - 724 625 - 734 -
HRC, Europe
1
614 -5.4 - -10.6 664 622 - 606 - 559 - 564 - 666 613 - 576 -
HRC, Japan
1
589 -3.8 - -28.8 648 597 - 605 - 598 - 620 - 820 612 - 669 -
HRC, China
1
605 -4.0 - -13.7 679 602 - 562 - 600 - 650 - 654 611 - 651 -
Precious metals (spot, USD/oz)
Gold (spot) 1,389 -3.0 -17.2 -14.2 1,632 1,400 -2% 1,400 1% 1,500 8% 1,500 7% 1,669 1,483 2% 1,500 7%
Palladium (spot) 757 +4.5 +6.4 +21.0 741 740 2% 750 -1% 800 5% 850 12% 645 758 2% 850 12%
Platinum (spot) 1,480 -1.2 -4.9 -0.1 1,632 1,500 1% 1,550 4% 1,650 11% 1,800 21% 1,552 1,583 4% 1,800 21%
Silver (spot) 22 -7.9 -28.2 -24.4 30.1 23 -2% 24 10% 25 14% 25 14% 31.2 26 5% 25 13%
Softs (nearby future)
NYBOT cocoa, USD/t 2,372 +2.1 +5.7 +4.7 2,177 2,300 0% 2,350 -1% 2,350 -1% 2,400 1% 2,346 2,294 -1% 2,400 0%
LIFFE coffee, USD/t *** 1,747 +2.1 -12.1 -17.4 2,047 1,975 3% 2,100 19% 2,100 17% 2,100 16% 2,016 2,056 9% 2,100 14%
NYBOT coffee, USc/lb 123 -15.2 -14.8 -19.6 143 135 2% 140 12% 145 13% 150 14% 175 141 7% 150 11%
NYBOT sugar, USc/lb 16 -6.1 -17.0 -18.7 18.4 17 0% 18 9% 19 8% 20 14% 21.6 18 4% 21 19%
TOCOM RSS3 rubber
#
, JPY/kg 231 -21.3 -23.5 -4.7 303.0 315 - 320 - 320 - 315 - 274.3 315 - 323 -
Fibres
NYBOT cotton No.2, USc/lb 89 +2.9 +17.8 +17.9 82 85 -1% 90 1% 80 -9% 90 3% 80 84 -2% 90 5%
Grains & oilseeds (nearby future)
CBOT corn (maize), USc/bushel 651 -9.4 -6.8 +9.8 715 660 0% 650 12% 625 16% 660 20% 694 663 6% 685 24%
CBOT soybeans, USc/bushel 1,541 +0.8 +8.1 +8.9 1,448 1,460 -1% 1,450 3% 1,400 6% 1,350 2% 1,464 1,439 2% 1,375 5%
CBOT wheat, USc/bushel 683 -2.7 -12.3 +10.8 739.2 700 1% 725 5% 730 3% 740 3% 750.3 724 2% 748 1%
CBOT rice, USD/cwt 16 +6.0 +9.6 +17.2 15.3 16 0% 16 -2% 16 -3% 15 -9% 14.9 16 -1% 15 -10%
Thai B rice 100%, USD/tonne*
1
600 +0.3 -0.7 +2.9 600 600 - 625 - 625 - 630 - 589 613 - 630 -
Edible oils (nearby future)
Palm oil (MDV,MYR/t) 2,420 +6.1 +4.3 -17.0 2,458 2,350 0% 2,600 6% 2,750 12% 2,800 13% 2,959 2,539 5% 2,819 14%
Soyoil (CBOT, USc/lb) 48 -2.9 -2.0 -1.9 51 49 0% 51 6% 50 5% 53 12% 53 50 3% 54 15%
Energy
Metals
Agricultural products


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 10
FICC on-the-run Rates
10Y bond 3M 3-12M Fundamentals Current trades
Majors
United States 2.36

Fiscal tightening will weigh on Q2 growth, but we expect
very gradual upward momentum to be maintained.

EU* 1.56

The economy remains weak; we expect the refi rate to
stay low for a prolonged period following the cut on 2 May.

Asia ex-Japan
China 3.46

Near-term performance will be affected by ultra-tight
liquidity conditions; weaker-than-expected macro data,
inflation likely to be contained for longer and potentially
delay the rate-hiking cycle.

Hong Kong 1.66

We see HKD short rates as range-bound at current low
levels on flush liquidity; long-dated bonds to track USTs;
higher volatility expected.


India 7.35

Supply pressure to offset support from rate cut
expectations.

Indonesia 6.73

Yields to rise on risk of higher supply, weak global
demand and low real yields.
Sell IDR 10Y bond
Malaysia 3.50

Structural demand to limit foreign selling. We prefer the
belly due to long-end supply risk.
Receive 5Y
MYR IRS
Long 7Y MGS
Pakistan 10.95

Concerns about higher bond supply to offset monetary
policy easing.

Philippines 3.35

Fundamentals are positive, but yields are too low; we
expect a sell-off, particularly at the long end.
Sell PHP 20Y bond
Singapore 2.11

Long-dated SGS to rise with USTs and near-term supply
risk.

South Korea 3.24

Dovish BoK to mitigate Fed QE tapering fears, while IRS
curve should bull steepen.
2/10 KRW IRS
steepener
Taiwan 1.39

Curve to bear steepen driven by rising yields on UST and
recovering local macro outlook.

Thailand 3.75

We see a risk of a bond sell-off amid potential capital-flow
measures.
THB 3/10Y IRS
steepener

Vietnam 7.75

Yields have bottomed ahead of the anticipated last policy
rate cut by the SBV.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Ghana** 19.35 Prospect of a larger sovereign bond to alleviate pressure
on local yields.
Long GHS 3Y
Kenya 11.85

New fiscal-year supply outlook to weigh on sentiment.
Nigeria 14.73 Supportive bond supply and inflation outlook.
South Africa 7.59

Sell-off is overdone; valuations to revive offshore investor
appetite.

Uganda 13.90 Increased bond supply weighs on sentiment.

Zambia 16.00 Range-trading amid an uncertain monetary stance.
* German government bond yields; ** 3Y benchmark Source: Standard Chartered Research


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 11
FICC on-the-run Credit
Sector 3M Rationale Picks Pans
Sovereigns
Tight spreads and higher susceptibility to a UST sell-off skew risk/reward to
the downside. The PHILIP curve trades tight on a rating-adjusted basis;
however, positive fundamentals and strong investor support will support the
space. While the INDON curve offers a decent pick-up over the global BBB
sovereigns, supply risk and fundamental concerns should limit spread
tightening. The fundamental backdrop for HY sovereigns will remain
challenging in the next 6-12 months, which could lead to volatility.
INDON 18S
PHILIP 19N
MONGOL 18
INDON 23/43
PHILIP
24N/37
Financials


Senior Thai names appear slightly more attractive than Malaysian names. We
prefer Korean policy banks over commercial banks, although they are rich
in the Asian context.
SBIIN 18
KOFCOR 17
MAYMK 17
SHNHAN 18
BCHINA 17
Tier 2 While liquidity can be patchy, some of the Indian UT2s offer an attractive
yield pick-up over Indian seniors and other Asian sub-debt. We also like
some of the HK LT2s, which are attractive from a spread vs. DV01
perspective.
OCBC23
BCHINA 20
BNKEA 22
ICICI 22

Tier 1 Tier 1 names offer value on a rating-adjusted basis, though liquidity is
an issue.
SBIIN 7.14 49
High-grade
corporates


China corporates While Chinese SOEs offer a pick-up over US credits on a rating-adjusted
basis, they appear fairly valued versus the Korean and Hong Kong credits.
Hence, we are Neutral on the space.
CHINAM 22
VANKE 18
HAIAIR 20
SINOCH 20
SINOPC 43
Hong Kong
corporates
HK property-sector names have solid credit profiles, while the industrial
names enjoy high ratings and a strong local bid. We believe some triple-B
corporates offer good risk/reward.
SUNHUN 22
LIFUNG 20
WHEELK 17
NOBLSP 20
CHINLP 23
CHEUNG 49
Korea corporates Korean quasi-sovereigns no longer trade very tight against China and Hong
Kong credits. Korean private corporates face weakening fundamentals and
ratings overhang (in most cases).
KOSEPW 17 SKM 18
HIGHWY 17
POHANG 21
Other HG
corporates
While the Indonesian quasi-sovereigns offer some value, we think
corporates in India and Malaysia are fairly valued. Singapore and Thai
corporates are a bit rich, in our view.
PERTIJ 22
NTPCIN 21
TOPTB 23
High-yield corporates


China corporates While most developers have reported strong 5M-2013 contracted sales, the
sales of some may be negatively affected by policy controls in the coming
months. We still expect most of them to achieve their full-year sales targets.
The developers liquidity positions are strong, backed by offshore fund-raising
this year. Similarly, refinancing pressure on the industrial corporates has
eased, although their earnings and credit metrics will remain under pressure.
We maintain our Overweight recommendation on the sector given that
selected bonds still offer RV and/or good carry. Also, the recent market
dislocation and correction have provided more attractive entry levels than
before.
EVERRE 15
YUZHOU 15
AGILE 16
CHINSC 17
SUNAC 17
CIFIHG 18
MIEHOL 16
MINMET 18
XIN 18
Other HY
corporates
HY bonds from the Philippines, India and Indonesia continue to provide a
diversification opportunity for investors.
ADROIJ 19
FIRPAC 19
CIKLIS 19
Middle East


Sovereigns We expect fundamentals to remain robust given supportive oil prices. That said,
we see better value in the financials and quasi-sovereigns, with the exception of
Dubai, where we like the sovereign.
DUGB 17 QATAR 18
DUGB 23
Quasi-sovereigns We like the Abu Dhabi quasi-sovereigns, as they are a close proxy for the
illiquid sovereign curve. While Dubai Inc. tightened considerably in 2012,
HY Dubai corps. continue to offer value within the region.
SECO 43
TAQAUH 21
MUBAUH 21
QTELQD 21
DEWA 20
EMAAR 16
INTPET17
QTELQD 43
Financials The NPL cycle in the UAE has bottomed out, in our view. Dubai financials
look attractive at current levels and should perform in line with sovereign
paper. Abu Dhabi financials have defensive qualities.
FGBUH 2.862 17
GULINT 17
TAMWEE 17
EBIUH 23
EBIUH 49
NBADUH 17
QNBK 20
KWIPKK 20
Source: Standard Chartered Research


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 12
FICC on-the-run FX
Spot
3M
FX
weighting
3-12M
FX
weighting
Fundamentals Current trades
Asia ex-Japan
CNY 6.13 Mild CNY appreciation in 2013 and medium-term Buy 5M USD-
CNH, Sell 5M
USD-CNY NDF
HKD 7.76 No peg change likely; downward pressure on USD-HKD to abate over time
KRW 1,126 BoP surplus to limit KRW losses near-term, drive medium-term rebound
TWD 29.85 TWD to stabilise and recover medium-term on strengthening fundamentals Sell USD-TWD
1Mx6M spread
IDR 9,923 Current account deficit and FX policy to weigh on the IDR short-term
MYR 3.12 MYR to outperform medium-term on current account and palm oil
PHP 42.82 Stretched local asset valuations to counter strong fundamentals
SGD 1.25 MAS to maintain gradual appreciation
THB 30.56 THB vulnerable to UST rate move and heavy positioning
VND 21,003 Further devaluation is unlikely given slowing inflation, narrowing trade deficit
INR 57.74 Volatile flows vs. high carry to keep INR range-bound near-term
Sub-Saharan Africa
KES 85.65 Pick-up in economic activity to weigh on trade and current account deficit
NGN 161 Oil export revenues and steady portfolio inflows remain supportive
GHS 2.01 Vulnerable to swing in portfolio flows as the trade deficit remains wide
ZAR 10.29 Vulnerable to a still-wide current account deficit
Latin America
ARS 5.34 Systemic currency depreciation continues; contado con liqui trades at 8.45
BRL 2.22 IOF removal is positive for future inflows once risk appetite stabilises
CLP 500 Weakening copper prices eroding Chiles terms of trade; rate cuts mooted
COP 1,896 Cyclical economic weakness is weighing more heavily on local sentiment
MXN 13.31 Higher US rates and reduction in MXN positioning to keep MXN soft near-term
PEN 2.74 Central bank may cut USD reserve requirements as onshore liquidity tightens
Majors
EUR 1.32 Strong current account position supports the EUR despite elusive growth
JPY 98.03 BoJ easing and anticipated Japanese investor flows drive JPY weakness
AUD 0.92 Slowing portfolio flows and USD strength to weigh on AUD
NZD 0.78 Stable growth and positive rate differentials are supportive going forward
CHF 0.93 Recurrent euro-area tensions and current account offset valuation concerns
GBP 1.55 Sluggish growth and abysmal current account dynamics remain GBP bearish
CAD 1.04 Weak growth and a fragile housing market will weigh on the CAD for now Buy USD-CAD
3M forward
outright
Source: Standard Chartered Research


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 13
FICC on-the-run Commodities
Exchange 3-6M Fundamentals
Energy
Oil
WTI NYMEX

We expect prices to remain well supported by tight supply fundamentals
and tensions in the Middle East.
Coal
Newcastle (USD/t) globalCOAL

Thermal coal prices are likely to face downside risks due to persistent
oversupply in the market. However, the marginal cost of production may
provide a price floor.
Agriculture
Softs
Cocoa (USD/t) NYBOT

Although the market is well off its lows for the year, a further rally is being
limited by firming global supply.
Coffee (USc/lb) NYBOT

We favour Robusta over Arabica, as Arabica prices are likely to remain
under pressure given the large crop harvest in Brazil.
Sugar (USc/lb) NYBOT

Prices have slumped close to cost-of-production levels and should start to
trend higher as demand improves.
Fibres (USc/lb)


Cotton NYBOT

Prices have plateaued for now, but underlying demand from Asia and
moderately lower global output are supportive factors.
Grains & oilseeds (USc/bu)
Corn CBOT

Corn prices have regained momentum following planting delays in the US
Midwest. Prices should now stay range-bound unless yields slump.
Soybeans CBOT

The soybean market is being pressured by a large Latam harvest, but
supported by logistical delays in Latam and low old-crop inventories.
Wheat CBOT

Poor weather in the US is adversely impacting crop development.
Metals
Base metals (USD/tonne)
Aluminium LME

Demand growth is strong and producers are cutting back, but high stock
levels will limit the upside.
Copper LME

We see some upside risks, but worries about a supply ramp-up are
expected to limit the upside.
Lead LME

Medium-term prospects look good as the automotive sector improves.
Nickel LME

We expect fundamentals to remain weak and the complex to stay
range-bound.
Tin LME

Fundamentals are improving.
Zinc LME

Medium-term fundamentals are turning.
Precious metals
Gold Spot

We see a range-bound market for now. Investors are still selling ETFs, but
physical appetite has been very strong.
Palladium Spot

Supply cuts in South Africa are combining with an improving auto market.
Platinum Spot

Supply cuts in South Africa are denting supply, and margins are being
squeezed by rising costs.
Silver Spot

We see a range-bound market for now.
Source: Standard Chartered Research


Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 14
Disclosures Appendix
Recommendations structure
Standard Chartered terminology Impact Definition
Issuer
Credit outlook
Positive Improve
We expect the fundamental credit profile of the
issuer to <Impact> over the next 12 months
Stable Remain stable
Negative Deteriorate

Standard Chartered Research offers trade ideas with outright Buy or Sell recommendations on bonds as well as pair trade recommendations
among bonds and/or CDS. In Trading Recommendations/Ideas/Notes, the time horizon is dependent on prevailing market conditions and may
or may not include price targets.

Credit trend distribution (as at 19-Jun-2013)
Coverage total (IB%)
Positive 4 (0.0%)
Stable 204 (31.5%)
Negative 77 (26.9%)
Total (IB%) 285 (29.8%)


Credit trend history (past 12 months)
Company Date Credit outlook
- - -


Please see the individual company reports for other credit trend history


Regulatory Disclosure:

Subject companies: Abu Dhabi National Energy Co., Agile Property Holdings Ltd., Bank of China (HK), Bank of East Asia Ltd., BOC Aviation PTE Ltd.,
Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd., China Merchants Holdings International Ltd., China Petroleum and Chemical Corp., China South City
Holdings Ltd., China Vanke Co. Ltd., CIFI Holdings Group, CLP Power Hong Kong Ltd., Dubai Electricity and Water, Emaar Properties PJSC, Emirates
Islamic Bank, Evergrande Real Estate Ltd., First Gulf Bank PJSC, First Pacific Co. Ltd., Government of Dubai, Gulf International Bank, Hainan Airways
Hong Kong Ltd., ICICI Bank, IPIC GMTN Ltd., Korea Expressway Corp., Korea Finance Corp, Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd., Kuwait Projects Company,
Li & Fung Ltd., Malayan Banking Bhd., MIE Holdings Corp., Minmetals Land Ltd., Mongolian People's Republic, Mubadala Development Co., National
Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC, Noble Group Ltd., NTPC Ltd., Oversea-Chinese Banking, POSCO, PT Andaro Energy Tbk., PT Cikarang Listrindo, PT Pertamina
Persero, Qatar National Bank, Qatar Telecom QSC, Republic of Indonesia, Republic of the Philippines, Saudi Electricity Co., Sinochem Group, Shinhan
Bank, SK Telecom, State Bank of India, State of Qatar, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Sunac China Holdings Ltd., Tamweel PJSC, Thai Oil PCL, Wheelock
& Co. Ltd., Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Yuzhou Properties Co. Ltd.

SCB and/or its affiliates have received compensation for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past one year: Abu Dhabi
National Energy Co., CLP Power Hong Kong Ltd., Dubai Electricity and Water, Emaar Properties PJSC, First Gulf Bank PJSC, Gulf International Bank,
ICICI Bank, Mubadala Development Co., Noble Group Ltd., POSCO, Qatar National Bank, Shinhan Bank, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Wheelock & Co.
Ltd.

SCB makes a market in securities issued by this company: Bank of China (HK), BOC Aviation PTE Ltd., Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd., China
Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Evergrande Real Estate Ltd., Li & Fung Ltd., Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.

SCB and/or its affiliates owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this company: China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Sun Hung Kai
Properties Ltd.

SCB was a lead manager of a public offering for this company within the past 12 months, for which it received fees: Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.

SCB has managed or co managed a public offering for this company within the past 12 months, for which it received fees: Gulf International Bank, Qatar National
Bank, Republic of Indonesia, Thai Oil PCL





Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 15
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Document approved by
John Calverley
Global Head of Macro Economic Research
Data available as of
19:45 GMT 20 June 2013

Document is released at
19:45 GMT 20 June 2013




Economics Weekly



GR13AP | 21 June 2013 16
World Wide Wrap
Focus issues for next 3 months One year ahead outlook

In the US, the focus will be on the pace of growth, fiscal policy
negotiations, and Fed thinking on monetary policy. In Asia,
activity data will be key particularly Chinas economic upswing
and property-sector prospects. In Europe, the evolution of ECB
and government policies, the extent of the recession, and deficit
reduction will be watched, as well as the overall political situation.
We expect the current global economic weakness to gradually
give way to faster growth in H2, helped by recent monetary policy
easing and receding risks related to Europe and US fiscal policy.
Asian central banks will finish easing and some will look to
tighten. Inflation should be well behaved. Key risks are politics in
Europe, US fiscal policy and Middle East instability.

The acceleration of Chinas 2013 economic growth is taking a little
longer than we expected. A disappointing March was followed by a
moderately weak April. We expect clearer signs of momentum to
emerge in H2 as housing, infrastructure and exports become more
supportive. We believe short-term stimulus is unlikely unless the
employment situation deteriorates markedly.
We forecast GDP growth of 7.7% for 2013 and 7.5% for 2014,
reflecting the slower-than-expected recovery so far in 2013 and
the new governments shift in focus to economic reform. We have
also lowered our CPI inflation forecast to 2.8% y/y for 2013 and
to 4.1% for 2014. We expect the rate-hiking cycle to resume in
Q1-2014, followed by two more hikes in Q2-2014.

Recent INR weakness complicates Indias monetary policy as it
can exacerbate inflationary pressures and strain fiscal health. We
expect the RBI to keep the repo rate unchanged at its July policy
meeting. While the C/A deficit is likely to narrow after a series of
measures to curb gold imports, funding the deficit could be
challenging in the current global environment.
An improvement in Indias FY14 GDP growth will depend on
government efforts to unfreeze the investment cycle. A faster
rebound is unlikely, as politics are likely to limit changes in
economic policy. We expect FY14 GDP growth of 5.5% from
5.0% in FY13, despite benefits from lower commodity prices,
interest rate cuts and higher government expenditure.

The slowdown in export growth has been largely offset by
resilient domestic demand, with the exception of Singapore.
Central banks in the region have finished or almost finished
easing, as the growth slowdown has been modest and prospects
for H2 are better. Food prices are a potential concern.
Local authorities flexibility in providing monetary and fiscal
stimulus, along with a possible influx of foreign capital, results in
a positive growth outlook for the region. Policy makers will need
to remain vigilant to the risk of a resumption of asset- and
consumer-price inflation, as well as a re-acceleration of lending
and money growth.

Exports should continue to recover, while headwinds to domestic
demand, such as the household debt burden and weak housing
market, may persist. Headline inflation is expected to stay below
2%, and the current account surplus should be maintained. The
National Assembly has approved a KRW 17.3tn supplementary
budget, and the BoK has embarked on another easing cycle.
We expect a gradual recovery. The export outlook is improving
and fiscal and monetary easing will support domestic demand.
Inflation should stay below the BoKs target range, and the
housing market should find a floor thanks to policy support. The
government will seek new ways to finance the proposed welfare
programme expansion, increasing the risk of effective tax hikes.

Oil exporters are benefiting from high oil prices, with Saudi
Arabia and Qatar taking the lead in government spending and
Abu Dhabi having given the green light for previously delayed
projects. Regional geopolitical challenges remain, and sluggish
global growth should cap y/y oil output growth in 2013. The
Levant countries will be the most exposed to geopolitics.
High oil prices should support GCC economies in 2013 as growth
slows moderately. Non-oil-producing countries face challenges.
Transition continues in some, while others still face political
turmoil. The economic fortunes of key newcomer Iraq (with rising
hydrocarbon exports) will depend on how quickly it removes
impediments to investment and implements structural reforms.

South African economic activity will be monitored to assess the
risk of further policy easing. We do not expect further easing.
Kenyattas victory in Kenyas presidential election should provide
a more stable backdrop for economic growth, and Kenya should
experience a firmer recovery in 2013.
Although global uncertainty weighs on the outlook for
SubSaharan Africa, Africas broad-based economic recovery
looks set to continue. Domestic growth momentum should drive
GDP performance in 2013. The election in Zimbabwe will be
closely watched. Politics will play a key role in determining
economic outcomes.

Brazil is hiking rates as the deterioration in the inflation outlook
takes centre stage. The central bank is using its tools to try to
prevent BRL volatility. The industrial sector is starting to recover,
and the weaker currency should help. In Argentina, strict capital
controls are part of a worrisome policy backdrop. Attention in
Mexico will shift to the PRIs ability to promulgate much-needed
structural reforms.
The region, Brazil in particular, is set for stronger growth in 2013.
The more market-oriented economies including Brazil, Mexico,
Colombia, Peru and Chile show promise, while distortions in
Argentina and Venezuela may lead to greater challenges. FX
reserves are generally robust and banks well capitalised.
Dependence on commodity prices is a vulnerability.

We expect GDP growth to stay soft in Q3-2013 as fiscal
headwinds continue, and the business inventory cycle turns less
favourable. Inflation is likely to remain low, while the jobless rate
will likely edge down gradually. The Fed intends to start tapering
QE later this year, but we think this may happen in January 2014,
when activity picks up more sustainably.
We expect the economy to pick up materially in 2014, boosted by
robust business investment, a continued housing recovery,
moderating fiscal headwinds and increased bank lending. The
energy boom should underpin future growth. We see the Fed
ceasing QE by Q3-2014, and its first rate hike in Q3-2015, when
the unemployment rate is expected to drop below 6.5%.

The focus is on activity and politics. Markets will monitor (1)
whether politics in the euro-area periphery will support necessary
austerity measures and reforms, ensuring backing from core
governments; and (2) the ECBs stance and actions, in particular
peripheral bond-market support and liquidity facilities for banks.
The economy remained in recession in Q1-2013.
Euro-area concerns are affecting confidence throughout the
region. This adds to tight fiscal policy and still-difficult credit
conditions. We expect the economy to stabilise and begin a
sluggish recovery. We think officials and the ECB will eventually
do enough to restore a degree of confidence among investors,
even if Greece leaves the euro area.

The BoJ plans to double the monetary base over the next two
years and extend JGB buying across the curve. This is likely to
affect the economy by lowering the yield curve and raising
inflation expectations. The focus now will be on Upper House
elections (July) and the long-term growth strategy, due to be
announced this summer, with hopes of new reforms.

2013 still looks challenging. Despite our higher GDP forecast,
raised on the back of the quantitative and qualitative monetary
easing programme, it remains unclear whether the current
improvement in local sentiment will translate into a sustainable
longer-term recovery. We do not expect the 2% inflation target to
be achieved soon.
Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix Source: Standard Chartered Research
Global
Greater China
South Asia
South East
Asia
South Korea
MENA
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America
United States
Europe
Japan