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Research &

Forecast Report
EMEA | Hotels
2013
EMEA Hotel Investment
Market Update
Appetite for hotel real estate in the EMEA region
continues to strengthen
Increasing interest is particularly noted in the cities of Munich, Frankfurt
and Vienna and in Poland as a whole. Te strong hotel investment trends
in Paris and London are also forecast to continue
Investor expectations for the forthcoming year
are positive
Our sentiment survey showed positive expectations despite challenging
times currently leading to difculties in obtaining fnancing
More joint ventures in Africa are expected
With informal institutions being predominant in Africa it expected
that foreign investors are most likely to continue to seek joint ventures
to enter and expand their portfolios.Sub-Saharan countries are of
particular interest
Middle East investors continue their interest
in cross-border investments
Trophy assets remain highly desirable
Transaction volume is increasing
Total transaction volume for 2013 is expected to exceed
2012. Institutional investment is set to represent the majority
of transactional volume in the near future
2 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Contents
Appetite for Hotel Real Estate
in the EMEA Region 3
Hotel Markets
across the EMEA region 5
Western Europe 5
Middle East and Africa 6
Movements
in the Hotel Market 7
Investment Volume 7
3 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Appetite for
Hotel Real Estate
in the EMEA Region
In the past 3-4 years hotel real estate has
been attracting increasing interest from
investors in the EMEA region, as illustrated
by the increasing investment volumes and
the high number ofcross border investors in
this segment.
In cooperation with the MBA program
ofLes Roches International School of Hotel
Management, Colliers International has
conducted a survey among leading investors
across the region to gauge the sentiment in
the hotel investment market. Together with
data and market interviews the latest trends
and sentiments on the hotel market have
been analysed inthis report.
With almost 8 billion in hotel transactional activity across
the EMEA region for the frst three quarters of 2013, total
transactional activity in the region is expected to exceed the
8.3 billion transacted in 2012 before the end of the calendar
year. In general, investor sentiment is positive for the next
12 months. Te majority of investors in hotels are actively
looking to expand their portfolio in EMEA, with a focus on
developments. Recycling of capital is the main reason that
investors are considering selling hotel properties. Most
investors believe capitalisation rates will remain the same
over the next 12 months while only a few think there will be
an improvement. With the operating component of hotels
requiring knowledge and understanding of the link between
hotel performance and their investment, hotels are considered
riskier than the straightforward nature of other commercial
real estate. Additionally, the type of lenders in this sector are
tied to market conditions, resulting in shifts in the debt sources
ultimately impacting the activity and the profle of investors.
Most investors expect that debt will be less expensive in the
next year in the region, with the exemption of the regions of
Southern Europe and Africa.
As investor sentiment and rising transaction volume show
positive momentum in the short term, this does not mean
that worries for the Eurozone are over. Te macro-economic
environment has only recently shown recovery with a growth
of GDP in Q2 2013 of 0.3%, Germany being its main driver.
Te national debt in the Eurozone area is still rising fast and
countries in Southern Europe face high unemployment
rates and austerity measures. In Northern Europe we have
seen economic recovery, but also these countries have taken
austerity measures to comply with European demands.
Economic growth forecasts by the IMF for the aforementioned
regions are as follows:
FORECAST
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
European Union 1.71% -0.30% 0.02% 1.30% 1.60% 1.76% 1.83% 1.89%
Middle East and North Africa 3.90% 4.61% 2.15% 3.78% 4.17% 4.08% 4.22% 4.36%
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.49% 4.86% 4.96% 6.01% 5.67% 5.65% 5.51% 5.68%
GDP growth
Source: IMF, 2013
UNWTO - International Tourist Arrivals
International Tourist Arrivals Received
(million)
Average annual growth
(%)
ACTUAL DATA PROJECTIONS ACTUAL DATA PROJECTIONS
1980 1995 2010 2020 2030
1980
-1995
1995
- 2010
2010
- 2030
2010
- 2020
2020
-2030
Africa 7.2 18.9 50.3 85 134 6.7 6.7 5.0 5.4 4.6
North Africa 4.0 7.3 18.7 31 46 4.1 6.5 4.6 5.2 4.0
West and Central Africa 1.0 2.3 6.8 13 22 5.9 7.5 5.9 6.5 5.4
East Africa 1.2 5.0 12.1 22 37 0.1 6.1 5.8 6.2 5.4
Southern Africa 1.0 4.3 12.6 20 29 10.1 7.4 4.3 4.5 4.1
Europe 177.3 304.1 475.3 620 744 3.7 3.0 2.3 2.7 1.8
Northern Europe 20.4 35.8 57.7 72 82 3.8 3.2 1.8 2.2 1.4
Western Europe 68.3 112.2 153.7 192 222 3.4 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.4
Central/Eastern Europe 26.6 58.1 95.0 137 176 5.3 3.3 3.1 3.7 2.5
Southern/Mediterranean
Europe
61.9 98.0 168.9 219 264 3.1 3.7 2.3 2.6 1.9
Middle East 7.1 13.7 60.9 101 149 4.5 10.5 4.6 5.2 4.0
Total EMEA 191.6 336.7 586.5 806 1027
4 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Hotel markets across the EMEA difer and are highly dependent
on macro-economic prosperity and, at a local level, on tourism
arrivals. Eurostat - yearly recording the number of overnight
stays saw arrival numbers between 2007 and 2009 fall by
an average of 2.2% in the European Union. Although there
were countries that saw increases in hotel tourism, this was
dominated in the nights spent by domestic visitors, refecting
the substitution of trips abroad for holidays in their own
country. Between 2009 and 2011 there was an overall increase
of 4.0% of hotel nights per year with Eastern Europe regions
showing the greatest increases. Colliers International forecasts
this trend of increasing hotel nights to continue across Europe
due to the growth of world tourism as international tourist
arrivals are expected to increase by more than 50% until 2030
(UNWTO, 2013). Middle East and Africa are expected to double
their arrivals by 2030.
Following the World Tourism Organisation, arrivals in emerging
countries in the EMEA region are forecast to grow 4.4% a year
until 2030. Tis is double the pace predicted for advanced
economy destinations. Investors in hotels are advised to also
focus on these regions as arrivals are expected to exceed those
in advanced economies by as soon as 2015. In 2030, 57%
(compared to 30% in 1980) of international arrivals are expected
to be in emerging economy destinations.
Source: UNWTO, edited by Colliers International
5 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Hotel Markets
across the EMEA
region
A number of key countries and cities
within the EMEA region are highlighted
in the following section.
Western Europe
Te UK hotel market has sufered less from the economic
climate compared to other European countries due to the
London Olympics in 2012. Te prospects for growth for the
next two years are positive; forecast at 1.9% in 2014 and in
2% in 2015 (IMF, 2013). In 2012, partly due to the hosting of
the 2012 Olympics, nearly 8,000 bedrooms were added and
new supply was at its highest for a decade. A further 5,000
rooms are set to open by the end of this year. It is expected that
occupancy will fall just below 80% meaning a decline for the
third year. Although the ADR is also anticipated to decline, by
approximately 1% by year-end 2013, rates averaging almost
137 (162) are still high by any city standard. Te decline in
RevPar can be explained by the steep 6.5% increase in hotel
rooms in the capital in 2012 (PWC, 2013). However, this RevPar
level is still 18% higher compared to 2009. Although market
performance is set to decline this year, the investment market
has shown to be resilient during declines of performance in the
past. Te appetite for hotel investments is projected to continue.
France recorded an improved RevPar of approximately 7.2%
(MKG, 2013) and total hotel revenues have increased 2% to
77 billion in 2012. With the current economic outlook, modest
revenue growth is projected. However, as a consequence of
its cultural value, the city of Paris continues to be one of the
primary tourist destinations. It recorded about 32 million
domestic and foreign visitors per year in 2012. Te Paris region
accommodates guests in more than 110,000 rooms, a third of
which are in the 4 and 5 star category and about a third in the
3star category. Hotel transactions increased by 0.3 billion and
resulted in 1.6 billion ytd. Tis is mainly due to the sale of the
Concorde portfolio and the Mandarin oriental transaction.
Germany is on the radar of international hotel investors.
For the next 12 months investors main focus is on Frankfurt,
Hamburg and Mnich. Other cities that are of interest are
Berlin, Dsseldorf, Cologne and Stuttgart. From these seven
cities Mnich is the best performer with an ADR of 123
(up 2.4% in 2012) and a RevPar of 92 (up 11.5% in 2012).
Transaction volume in Germany increased signifcantly over
the last two years. Due to the construction of additional hotels,
portfolio properties currently in the pipeline and a few larger
individual deals, it is expected that transaction pace will
continue. Tere is also an increasing interest on the part of
German institutional investors. Tey are mainly focused on
long term lease contracts, as when structuring hotel real estate
funds they are restricted by law to invest in lease or hybrid
contracts. Semi-institutions are allowed to sign management
agreements but often restrict themselves. In Germany this is
resulting in lower LTVs. An example is the Hotel Real Estate
Fund of Internos, with initial equity of 75 million of 4 German
Institutions concentrating on hotels with stable trading in
Germany and the Netherlands with a LTV of 40%.
Investors focus is also on Amsterdam, the prime market of
the Netherlands. Te city planned to add 9,000 rooms in the
period of 2007 2015, including 1,000 rooms in the city centre.
By December 2012 approximately 62% had been completed.
With the current developments, the Amsterdam market is still
performing well with a stable occupancy of 78% and an ADR of
124 (Hosta, 2013).
In 2013 (ytd) there is quite an active transaction market, mainly
focused on trophy assets like the NH Krasnapolsky, the Pullitzer
and Roommate Aitana.
6 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Middle East and Africa
Te regions in the Middle East and Africa have historically
experienced a diverse range of economic development. Many
nations from the Middle East and Northern Africa are still going
through political and economic transitions that followed theArab
Spring in 2011. Despite this change the Middle East and Northern
Africa still recorded an economic growth of about 4.7% in 2012. It
must be noted that economic performance was mixed throughout
the region with oil-exporting countries having a larger economic
growth than non-oil countries and countries with political
instability.
In line with the economic growth, Africas hotel performance is
also scattered. Te most interesting places are the sub-Saharan
African countries that have seen economic growth of over 5%
(like Ghana and Nigeria). Also tourism infrastructure is developing
at a fast pace. On top of this investors have shown increasing
interest in Morocco and Mauritius. In Western Africa, Ghana has
seen a rise in the demand for quality hotel rooms, given the rapid
expansion of the Ghanaian economy bolstered by oil and gold
resources. Another city that has caught the interest of investors in
West Africa is Lagos. In general, Chinese investors are highly active
in real estate and infrastructure investments in the African regions.
Although hotel owners from Middle Eastern countries are also
visible in Africa, domestic investors are still dominant. Temain
reason is that a local network and knowledge of the specifc
markets is key. As informal institutions will be predominant,
foreign investors are most likely to seek joint ventures to enter
and expand their portfolios. Typically luxury hotel investments
are most popular. However factors like political problems and
inadequate infrastructure have held back growth in some African
regions. An example of a national investor profle is the West
African conglomerate Teyliom International. Tey founded
Inaugure Hospitality in order to invest 315 million, spread
between 15 properties in 13 African countries constructing more
than 2,200 rooms. Generally said, Colliers International expects
that for the above mentioned regions growth will continue at the
same pace as already experience earlier in 2013.
Like Africa, we have seen a relatively good performance in 2013
in the Middle East. Although the performance in themain cities
like Dubai, Qatar, Jeddah and Doha is dispersed, region-wide
occupancy rates are close to 70%, resulting in an increase in
RevPar of 9.5%. Te active hotel development pipeline is estimated
to be almost 500 hotels which are mainly classifed in the Upper-
Upscale segment (30.8%). Tere is little or no confrmed
forthcoming supply in the branded economy hotel segment, which
suggests an opportunity for development in the future. High Net
Worth Individuals from the Middle East are not solely focused
on their own region and are mainly considering cross-border
investment in the stable prime markets of Europe with afocus on
trophy assets.
7 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Movements in the
Hotel Market
It must not come as a surprise that obtaining fnance for hotel
real estate investments was easier pre-crisis and the scarcity
and cost of debt has been slowing down the number of hotel
transactions since then. Along with the introduction of Basel
III and the lack of economic growth within Europe, fnancing
has become more difcult, often not recording LTVs higher
than 60% for hotel real estate. With these changes in the supply
of debt, the investors profle has been changing as well. In
the EMEA we have seen a shift towards more investments by
institutional investors. Most investors are focusing on prime
markets in the relatively stable economies in the Western part
ofEurope.
Capital cities such as London and Paris are traditionally
considered to be the top prime markets. Amsterdam is also
in demand; three hotel transactions have already made it
into the top 10 biggest real estate investments for 2013 of the
Netherlands. Investor sentiment has proven that the European
cities of Frankfurt, Munich and Vienna are also of particular
of interest. For investors, Poland is one of the most promising
countries in Eastern Europe. Tis is in high contrast to other
Eastern European countries, as investors perceive them as a
high risk due to economic instability. Tis risk is also perceived
for the Southern Europe region.
Te investment market for hotels was booming in the pre-crisis
years. In 2007 the transaction volume in hotels amounted to
23 billion in the EMEA region. Since then such levels have not
been reached as the investment volumes fell to levels around
or below 10 billion. An exception is the year of 2009, when the
fnancial crisis hit the real estate sector hard. Hotel investment
volume only totalled 4.4 billion in 2009. Te year 2012 had a
volume of 8.3 billion. 2013 has started positively as in the frst
nine months more than 7 billion worth of hotel real estate
was transacted. As an investment volume of 1.3 billion was
recorded in Q3 of 2013, total year end transactional volume will
most likely outperform 2012.
Investment Volume
Within the EMEA region there have been several diferences.
In 2013 to date Germany has been performing very well
with a large increase of transaction volume. According to
fgures from Real Capital Analytics a total of 773 million has
been invested in hotels in Germany so far this year, this was
boosted by the acquisition of the Queens Moat Portfolio by
Fattal Hotel Group of 285 million. Te highest transactional
volumes this year so far have been recorded in the United
Kingdom and France totaling 2.5 billion and 1.6 billion
respectively. In both the UK and France the major acquisitions
were done by the Qatar Holding, in London they bought the
Park Lane Hotel (356 million) and in Paris the Concorde
Lafayette Hotel (466million). Other important European
markets such as in the Netherlands (approx. 500 million),
Italy (approx.405million), Spain (approx. 400 million) and
Sweden (approx. 312 million) activity was also recorded in
2013 so far. In Central and Eastern Europe transaction volumes
were lower although there was activity in countries like Russia
(164million) and Ukraine (129 million). In the Middle East and
Africa there have only been a handful of deals in 2013 to date.
Te graphic below refects that institutional investors have been
more active in the region in 2013 compared to the average of the
last fve years, taking up the part of the private investors.
Investments by type of investors
Source: RCA
Equity Fund
Institutional
Private
Public
User / Other
12%
13%
39%
33%
19%
50%
15%
18%
1%
0%
2013
YTD
2008 2013
YTD
Investment Volume Hotels
EMEA 2007 - 2013
* 2013 till Q3
V
o
l
u
m
e

i
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

30
20
10
0
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
*
8 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
Below you can fnd the largest single asset deals and the largest
portfolio asset deals up to 2013 Q3 in the region. Tese results
underline market insights, with a considerable focus on the
prime asset class in the Western Europe region.
Looking at the type of buyers of hotel investments in the past
fve years it becomes clear that most hotel investments in EMEA
are completed by cross-border investors. In 2013 there has been
alarge volume of cross border activity with institutional foreign
investors such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Qatar
Holding buying properties. Tese and other institutional investors
accounted for almost half of the transactions in 2013 so far.
As travel and tourism will continue to increase over the coming
10 to 20 years, and diversifcation of real estate investments
is getting more important, interest in hotel investments will
grow further. In recent years, due to the global economic crisis,
we have seen a decline in hotel investment appetite. Last year
however we have witnessed an increase again. More funds
have entered the market and also private equity has joined
the game following liquid capital markets and interesting
hotel investment opportunities. Te hotel business worldwide
increasingly modernises and investors trust further stimulates
hotel investment appetite. Due to the professionalisation in
hotel operations more institutional investors are interested and
the hotel investment market shows to be a good alternative to
the traditional asset classes. Te emerging markets especially
trigger the need for professionalisation in the industry and
stimulate brands in their expansion. Distribution becomes
more and more transparent as the internet has turned out to
be agame changer in this space. Colliers International expects
hotel investments to break records in years to come.
Country City Property
Investment
volume ()
Room
Price ()
# of
rooms
Buyer Seller
United
Kingdom
London Park Lane Hotel 355,702,000 796,000 447 Qatar Holding Intercontinental Hotels
&Resorts
France Paris Mandarin Oriental
Paris
290,000,000 2,101,000 138 Mandarin Oriental Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise
Spain Barcelona W Barcelona 200,000,000 423,000 473 Qatar Investment Authority
OBO Qatari Diar
FCC/OHL/Comsa/BCN Godia
Italia Florence Four Seasons
Florence
191,741,000 1,652,000 116 Emir of Qatar Al Mirqab
(Khalifa Al- Thani)
Marcello and Corrado Fratini
Germany Berlin Maritim Hotel 171,595,000 340,000 505 Al Faisal Holding SEB Immo Invest
Netherlands Amsterdam Grand Hotel
Krasnapolsky
157,000,000 335,000 468 AXA Real Estate NH Hoteles
France Nice Hotel Martinez 143,469,000 348,000 412 Qatar Holding JV Talaat
Moustafa Group
Starwood Capital Group
United
Kingdom
London Ceasar Hotel 141,163,000 882,000 160 Derby Hotels Collection Grupo Metropolis
United
Kingdom
London Grand Plaza
Service
Apartments
114,877,000 580,000 198 Federal Land Development
Authority
Residential Land Group
France Paris Softel Paris
leFaubourg
113,000,000 769,000 147 Mount Kellet Accor
Country Portfolio Price () Buyer Seller
United Kingdom Marriott portfolio 733,986,000 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority RBS
France Starwood portfolio 716,666,000 Qatar Holding JV Talaat Moustafa Group Starwood Capital Group
United Kingdom Principal Hayley portfolio 419,420,000 Starwood Capital Group Principal Hayley Group
France Club Med portfolio 279,999,000 Credit Mutuel Gecina
Germany Queens Moat portfolio 249,999,000 Fattal Hotels Goldman Sachs
Top Hotel Investment Deals 2013
Top Hotel Portfolio Deals 2013
Source: RCA, Colliers International
Source: RCA, Colliers International
9 EMEA Hotel Investment Market Update | 2013 | Colliers International
COLLABORATION
Tis market report is based on Colliers International EMEA Hotels insights
of the hotel market including an investors sentiment survey amongst hotel
investors in the EMEA region. Te survey was part of the collaboration
between Colliers International EMEA Hotels and the MBA Program
of LesRoches, International School of Hotel Management and part
of the renowned Laureate Group.
We would like to thank our clients for their trust by participating
in this research.
Hotel Industry Leaders | Colliers International:
Dirk Bakker
dirk.bakker@colliers.com
+31 20 540 5540
Andreas Erben
andreas.erben@colliers.com
+49 30 202 9930
Filippo Sona
flippo.sona@colliers.com
+971 4 453 7400
Marc Finney
marc.fnney@colliers.com
+44 20 7344 6601
Copyright 2013 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable efort has been made to
ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult
their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
482 ofces in
62 countries on
6 continents
United States: 140
Canada: 42
Latin America: 20
Asia Pacifc: 195
EMEA: 85
1.5
billion in
annual revenue
103
million square meter
under management
13,500
employees
About Colliers International
Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with over 13,500
professionals operating out of more than 482 ofces in 62 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService
Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users, owners
and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset
management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services,
mortgage banking and insightful research. Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked
Colliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate frm in the world.
For more information about Colliers International Hotels and the latest news
please visit our website: www.colliers.com/emea/hotels
colliers.com
Colliers International
For more information:
Kes Brattinga
Head of Research
emea@colliers.com
Judith Stapel
Hotel Consultant
emea@colliers.com
EMEA Headquarters
50 George Street
London W1U 7GA
United Kingdom
+44 20 7935 4499
emea@colliers.com

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