Whats Riding on the Ontario Election Leaders Debate:

4 in 10 (38%) Indicate Theyll Make up Their Mind How to Vote

after Debate, Another 21% Could Switch Current Support

Four in 10 (41%) Locked their Vote in Before Writ was Dropped and have
No Intention of Changing Their Mind

Toronto, ON A new survey conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of CTV News and CP24
reveals that a sizeable portion of Ontarians who hadnt picked a provincial party before the writ
was dropped are likely to do so after Tuesday nights Leaders debate.
The data reveal that, in total, four in 10 (38%) Ontarians will make their decision as to who they
will support with their vote following the Leaders debate on Tuesday, June 3, 2014 13% who
say theyll wait until right after the Leaders debate to make up their mind, another 14% who
will wait until the last week of the campaign to make up their mind and a final 11% who
indicated they will probably make up their mind in the voting booth on Election Day.
The research also shows that two thirds (62%) of Ontarians made a choice in terms of who they
would vote for before the election began.
But thats not carved in stone: while four in 10 (41%) Ontarians say they made up their mind
before the election began and they are not changing it at all another 21% suggest that while
they made up their mind before the election they might change their mind to another political
party to support by the end of the campaign.

Nearly half (47%) of women say their vote is still in play between the Leaders debates
and the time they step into the voting booth, which is significantly ahead of men (29%)

NDP (29%) and Liberal (27%) supporters are more likely than Tory backers (22%) to
indicate that their ballot box decision could still come during the time between the
Leaders debate and the time they cast their ballot, meaning a potential shift in support
could be seen depending on the outcome of the debates and the final weeks of the
campaign

While most regions similarly state that theyve made up their mind before the Election
began and are firm in their choice, residents of the 416 (31%) are most likely to have had
a choice in mind before the Election but are willing to shift support elsewhere

Progressive Conservative supporters (61%) are most likely to have made up their mind
before the Election and are not changing their choice at all, far exceeding Liberal (41%)
and NDP supporters (41%)


Liberal (32%) and (28%) supporters are much more likely than PC (18%) voters to say
they had made up their mind before the Election but might change their mind, meaning
that one sides support could rally to the other in an attempt to block a Hudak PC victory

I made up my mind before the election
began and I'm not changing it at all
356
41%

I made up my mind before the election but
I might change my mind to another
political party to support
186
21%

I'll wait until right after the Leader
debate(s) to make up my mind
110
13%

I'll wait until the last week to make up my
mind
120
14%

I'll probably make up my mind in the voting
booth on Election Day
96
11%