Managing the condition-based maintenance of a combined-cycle

power plant: An approach using soft computing techniques

F.E. Ciarapica
*
, G. Giacchetta
a
Dipartimento di Energetica, Universita` Politecnica delle Marche, via Brecce Bianche, Ancona, Italy
Abstract
This paper describes how a condition-based maintenance plan was developed for a combined-cycle power plant at a medium-sized Italian
renery. Including forecasting activities in the maintenance cycle achieved the dual goal of identifying any need for measures ahead of the
deadlines established for routine preventive maintenance in the event of alarm conditions being detected, and of postponing any scheduled
measures in the event of the components in question still being in good condition. Soft computing tools were experimentally used to achieve
these objectives. Recurrent neural nets and neuro-fuzzy systems were used to ensure that the assessment of the trends of the global values was
effective in determining the time remaining before the next outage period was needed. Using these tools enabled an accurate prediction of
the values of the vibrations on rotating machinery based on the values of the operating parameters given as input.
The plan was part of a maintenance management scheme seen as a container of inspection activities providing the foundations for
systematically organizing certain servicing measures (e.g. the replacement of bearings, or alignments on rotating machinery, etc.), and to
prevent sudden breakdown situations.
q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Condition-based maintenance; Maintenance planning; Neuro-fuzzy systems; Recurrent neural network
1. Introduction
The IGCC (Integrated Gasication Combined Cycle)
plant considered in the present study was built at the Italian
API renery in Falconara Marittima (AN); it is designed to
produce a gross installed capacity of 283.6 MW in normal
working conditions and it comprises two main sections, i.e.
SMPP (Syngas Manufacturing Process Plant);
CCPP (Combined-Cycle Cogeneration Power Plant for
the production of electrical energy and steam).
The present paper always refers to the CCPP, which was
designed for a working life of 20 years, with a maximum
availability of 8000 h/year. The normal design conditions
call for the CCPP to use the syngas produced by the SMPP
after gasication of the residue coming from the visbreaking
plant at the renery.
The equipment of greatest interest for monitoring
purposes is primarily the rotating machinery situated in
the auxiliary systems serving the main units, and the
electrical equipment.
Condition monitoring traditionally means acquiring data
from various classes of plant which gives an indication of
the condition of machine (Macintyre, Smith, Harris, &
Brason, 1994). Condition monitoring is an essential element
of predictive maintenance. An ideal condition monitoring
system would accept measured data as input and will
produce the operational status, a possible mode of failure
and time to failure as output (van Wyk & Hoffman, 2003).
In implementing a condition-based maintenance plan,
our aim was:
to prevent catastrophic failures and all the related
consequences in terms of safety, impact on
availability and costs;
to identify damage in its early stages and thus
highlight the need for repairs (and their extent)
in advance;
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325
www.elsevier.com/locate/jlp
0950-4230/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2005.07.018
* Corresponding author. Tel.: C39 712204435; fax: C39 712204770.
E-mail addresses: f.ciarapica@univpm.it (F.E. Ciarapica), g.giac-
chetta@univpm.it (G. Giacchetta).
a
Tel.: C39 712204763; fax: C390712204770.
to prevent the damage encountered from progres-
sing and thus only have to cope with the costs of
small- to medium-scale measures rather than
repairing severe damage;
to organize the distribution of the resources to
spend on repairs in advance;
to cut back on the stocks of spare parts, ordering
only what we need, when we need it;
to contain the costs of servicing in two opposite
directions, i.e. by preventing any permanent
damage on the one hand, and postponing any
unnecessary measures on the other;
to improve awareness and the documentation
relating to the equipment;
to develop a cause-effect database to use as a basis
for the subsequent automation of the diagnostic
process.
It is a fact that the development plans of companies of
any size, and particular reneries, must include special
focus on production quality standards and environmental
issues, in order to obtain high quality products with the
lowest environmental impact (Fortuna, Rizzo, Sinatra, &
Xibilia, 2003). The scenario depicted so far involves the
implementation of extensive monitoring and control
strategies, in which basic control loops are integrated in
more and more complex supervision units, able to perform
complex operation, like monitoring, forecasting and fault
detection.
2. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) management at
the renery
A preliminary setup phase preceded the realization of our
CBM plan. This involved identifying which equipment
liable to need maintenance was to be monitored, evaluating
the CBM activities conducted in the past, scheduling the
initial monitoring frequency depending on the criticality of
each piece of machinery and the availability of resources for
implementing the plan.
The initial schedule of the activities organized for
managing CBM at the CCPP is illustrated in Fig. 1.
The CBM activities are handled by data collectors,
analysts, maintenance managers and planners.
Of course, the ow starts with the collection of
information (or operator rounds), preceded chronologi-
cally only by the initial denition of the monitoring
frequency, established on the strength of an risk analysis
of the systems (see Appendix 1) and an assessment of the
warning and alarm levels (the latter determined in
accordance with the ISO standard 10816).
Byits verynature, CBMhas tobe introducedgraduallyand,
duringthe course of its development, it must undergoa process
of continual ne adjustment. That is why it is obviously
fundamental to ensure a preliminary classication of the assets
on the basis of their criticality, since this identies the
priorities for the monitoring procedures (Chen &Yang, 2004).
Returning to the layout in Fig. 1, unless the operating
conditions are ideal, prompting the normal ling of the data,
Warning levels
exceeded?
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Operator
rounds
Increase
frequency
CMMS Planning
Available
resources
Define
recording
frequency
Recording of
measures and
feedback
Outcome
of
analyses
and
Comments
Basic
limit
values
Measurement
points
PREDICTIVE
DATA BASE
Values
frequency
spectra
and
Trends
Alarm levels
exceeded?
yes
no
no
yes
Work
orders
Risk
analysis Standards
Report to
managers
Report to
managers
Outcome of
analyses
Fault
predictability
study,
Correction and
recalibration
of values
Completion
of work and
response
A
B
B
A
Fig. 1. Initial schedule of CBM activities.
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 317
there may be two different cases that lead to the circulation
of the information collected, i.e. either
the conditions are nearing the alarm threshold, in
which case there will still be time to adopt the
normal procedure (a work order is issued, the
work is planned, the related activities are
organized, and the works are carried out); or
the conditions have exceeded the alarm threshold,
in which case the information passes immediately,
via the servicing managers, to the technicians for
emergency action.
Vibration data, for instance, are recorded at specied
time points and managed by a computerized maintenance
management system (CMMS) that issues the relevant work
orders. After the inspection rounds, analyses are conducted
(whatever the values recorded): if the machinery is in good
condition, a simple statement of the situation is led in the
system; but if the levels are sufcient to suggest more
hazardous conditions, they are compared with the outcome
of previous tests and a trending of the measured values is
performed. This analysis is followed up by the issue of
reports to the maintenance managers who decide, on the
strength of the content of said reports, whether to order
emergency maintenance procedures or to get the planners to
include the necessary measures in the maintenance plans, in
tune with the estimated residual working life of the
equipment, so as to keep to a minimum the costs deriving
from the use of the resources and the machine outage times.
In the case of scheduled measures, the CMMS produces
work orders that are then implemented and a nal statement
is produced at the end of the procedure. In the case of
emergency measures, the CMMS will only receive the nal
statement about the corrective action undertaken.
At the end of any condition-based maintenance
measures, there is a phase for recalibrating the system
which involves the technicians, the maintenance managers
and the planners; corrections are made to the plan in the
light of the comparison between the expectations stemming
from the prior analyses and the actual ndings recorded at
the end of the repair works. This recalibration process may
include:
revising the frequency attributed to the monitoring
activities: this is done performed by the planners and
by the analysts depending on the monitoring costs and
the observed behavior of the machinery (how effectively
the evolution of the values was followed up and
described).
correcting the values attributed to the alarm levels: this is
done by the maintenance managers and by the analysts in
the light of the comparison between the amount of
damage predicted and actually detected; if the predic-
tions were excessively pessimistic, the warning
threshold can be raised accordingly;
highlighting correlations between the signal emitted and
the phenomenon underway: this is done by the
maintenance managers on the strength of studies
conducted on the failure modes and the predictability
of failures after the response provided by the action taken
on the equipment.
2.1. Introducing soft computing techniques
A DCS (Distributed Control System) is used to signal
alarm conditions and send stop commands to the most
important machinery at the power station. This system
ensures a constant monitoring of the equipment from which
it receives signals, automatically managing their protection
and enabling a recording of the related values in an IMS
(Information Management System). This means that the
data it contains can be used for the purposes of CBM, not
only for control and protection, but also for trending the
changing conditions of the machines under its control.
The introduction of forecasting methods at the renery to
predict a machines conditions consisted in using the
previously-recorded observations available to guess at the
future state of the machine, which means constructing a
prediction model capable of grasping the temporal structure
of the data analyzed in order to forecast their value a few
steps in advance.
Many researchers have already successfully applied
forecasting methods for predicting facility conditions
(Roberts, Dassanayake, Leharasab, & Goodman, 2002).
The following is a far from complete list. Traditionally,
statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing,
linear regression, and the Box and Jenkins method, have
been applied more frequently (Bevilacqua, Braglia, &
Montanari, 2003; Huei-Shyang You, 1998; Kourti &
MacGregor, 1996), but in the past few years computational
intelligence techniques have also been used successfully.
The earliest works made use of expert systems (Medsker,
1994); then came a number of studies using articial neural
nets (Caputo & Pelagagge, 2002; Ho, Xie, & Goh, 2002;
Kiartzis, Zoumas, Theocharis, Bakirtzis, & Petridis, 1997;
Lucifredi, Mazzieri, & Rossi, 2000; Radmer, Kuntz,
Christie, Venkata, & Fletcher, 2002). More recently, several
works have employed fuzzy logic systems (Chung Wu,
2004; Figueiredo, Vellasco, Pacheco, & Neto, 2000) and
now also neuro-fuzzy systems (Javadpuor & Knapp, 2003;
Wang, Golnaraghi, & Ismail, 2004). Neuro-fuzzy tech-
niques integrate neural networks and fuzzy logic to create
powerful expert decision systems. Reports from Bakirtzis,
Theocharis, Kiartzis, and Satsios (1995); Dash and Liew
(1995) show the supremacy of the fuzzy neural network
over the conventional articial neural network. Many
authors have proposed various neuro-fuzzy models and
complex training algorithms (Zhang, Bai, & Cai, 2004).
Jang (1993), for instance, proposed the famous ANFIS
(Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System), in
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 318
which a hybrid learning algorithm is adopted that integrates
the BP (Backward Propagation) algorithm with the
recursive least squares algorithm to adjust parameters.
In the industrial sector analyzed, two models were
developed on the basis of the methods proposed for
predicting facility conditions: recurrent neural network
and neuro-fuzzy systems.
Once they have been developed and calibrated, the new
tools are used in the global CBM management. Since the
introduction of simulation models, the CBM management
approach illustrated in Fig. 1 has taken a great leap forward
in quality terms, taking shape as shown in Fig. 2. In this new
situation, the starting point for the conduction of a data
analysis involves calibrating the prediction model in ideal


Warning levels
exceeded?
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Operator
rounds
Increase
frequency
CMMS
Planning
Available
resources
Define
recording
frequency
Recording of
measures and
feedback
Alarm levels
exceeded?
yes
no
no
yes
Work
orders
Criticality
analysis Norme
Report to
managers
Report to
managers
Outcome of
analyses
Fault
predictability
study,
Correction and
recalibration
of values
Completion
of work and
response
A
B
B
A
B
NEURO-FUZZY models
calibration, characteristic
parameter definition and training
ANALYSIS
Fault
quantification
Diagnostic inspection
rounds
Spectrum analyszer
Termography
Field instruments
etc
Identification of type
of fault and its
classification
Planning maintenance work on the
basis of:
Type of damage
Experience of operators
Standard requirements
Levels reached
Slope of trends
Trending studies on single
machines
Evolution vs damage
Alarm thresholds vs damage
Judgement criteria vs damage
Alarm thresholds vs machine
trend evolution and
forecast of remaining time
Time
Alarm level
Warning Level
Variation in frequency of observation
Remaining time
e
d
u
t
i
l
p
m
A
Outcome
of
analyses
and
Comments
Basic
limit
values
Measurement
points
PREDICTIVE
DATA BASE
Values
frequency
spectra
and
Trends
Fig. 2. Revised schedule of CBM activities.
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 319
conditions for the machine being monitored (i.e. after a brief
test period following each overhaul of the machinery).
Following the creation and implementation of the
simulation models, the monitoring done on the inspection
rounds using portable instruments is used exclusively to
identify and characterize the fault. The evaluation of the
remaining working life and of the evolution of the damage is
based on analyses performed on the global values processed
by the model.
Said trending and the diagnosis of the fault lead to a
quantication of the fault, which enables a sufciently
accurate programming of the best time to undertake the
maintenance work. The responses from the CBM measures,
or from machine overhauls, is added to the other
information collected and useful for assessing the trends
relating to subsequent periods.
3. Case study
To establish the effectiveness of soft computing
techniques in predicting alarm situations, we studied the
case of a highly critical piece of equipment, i.e. a high-
pressure boiler feed pump. After assessing the validity of the
proposed techniques, the working method was extended to
all the critical machinery being monitored.
A machine with parts moving in relation to each other is
liable to vibrations, the entity and quality of which are
determined by a number of interacting factors; observing
these vibrations enables us to glean important information
on the condition and status of the machine in question. In the
context of vibration analysis, judging the operation of a
machine such as the pump forming the object of this study
as good or bad depending on the amplitude of vibration of
certain component parts is the easiest way to standardize
said operation and submit it to rules of a general nature (Van
Wyk & Hoffman, 2003). The standard we adopted to dene
the initial reference values (the warning level and the alarm
level) for judging the global value of the vibrations affecting
the machine being monitored was the ISO 10816, which
revisits and improves the content of previous standards
structured in much the same way, such as the VDI 2056, the
ISO 2373, and the API 610.
The RMS (root mean square) of the vibration rate in
mm/s in line with the bearing on the joint side was
calculated because it correlates directly with the energy of
the vibratory state and can be used to evaluate the
equivalence between two oscillatory phenomena. That is
why this parameter is the most suitable for simultaneously
examining different machines of different dimensions and
running at different speeds, or when we need to judge a
machine simultaneously involving vibrations of different
frequencies (two vibrations with any characteristics can be
considered equivalent if they have the same RMS value).
Although the models based on neural networks and
neurofuzzy systems may have been created using any
programming language, the support used to implement them
here was Matlab 6.5, which facilitates the user by providing
a full graphical interface of the majority of the functions
needed for this purpose.
Observing the trend of the oscillations in the variables
considered, we chose to extract a set of values every 30 min
so as to be able to follow their evolution effectively without
acquiring an excessive amount of data. The models were
trained using the early stopping technique. The data set for a
period of 4 weeks (between March and April 2004) was
divided into three parts: 1/2 for the learning stage, 1/4 for
the validation stage and 1/4 for the generalization of the
model. In conducting the study, a sequence of objectives to
achieve was progressively followed, involving:
1. the creation of a model capable of producing good short-
term predictions;
2. the identication of a growing trend in the medium to
longer term;
3. the calibration of the model for a brief period, in which
two fundamental conditions must be satised: the rst is
that the machine must be in good condition; the second
is that all possible working conditions must be covered
during the period considered;
4. the fourth objective is to nalize the previous efforts by
implementing a system enabling an online continuous
assessment of the conditions of the machine under its
control.
3.1. Forecasting models
A rst approach to the creation of a prediction model
consisted in constructing a feedforward type of neural
network belonging to the MLP (Multi Layer Perceptrons)
category with a hidden layer of neurons with sigmoidal
activation and an output with linear activation. Recurrent
networks are similar in architecture to feedforward neural
networks, but they have additional feedback links that
delay and store information from the previous time steps
(Wang et al., 2004) (Fig. 3).
A neural models adaptability to the dynamic character-
istics of a system is studied by making the model update its
X
t-N
t t t t
X
t-5
X
t-2
X
t-1
X
t-4
X
t-3 Input
X
t-6
t
X
t-7
t
X
t
t
Fig. 3. Recurrent neural network.
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 320
own parameters in adaptive mode, i.e. presenting the
training patterns one at a time to prompt the consequent
revision of the characteristic parameters. This was done to
assess the inuence of the input vibration values on the
networks capacity for generalization and to establish the
ability of recurrent input models in predicting the expected
levels N steps ahead.
The inputs data set only included the vibration values
structured to create a recurrent network that acquires the Q
values before the instant zero and provides the vibration
value at the instant zero plus N. Comparisons were drawn
between several models with input data sets of different sizes,
pushing the prediction one step forward each time; Fig. 4(a)
and (b) below show the outcome of the generalizations
obtained for the set with eight inputs (QZ8) in the case of a
short-term prediction (NZ2; 2 stepsZ1 h ahead) and in the
case of the maximum time interval up to which a prediction
could be made with acceptable results (NZ6; 6 stepsZ3 h
ahead).
Thus, there were eight neurons in the input layer, eight
neurons in the hidden layer and eight neuron in the output
(3). The number of neurons in the hidden layer was
determined starting from a rst tentative number of neurons
and progressively adding one neuron, with a consequent
reduction in the error during the generalization stage to
improve the reproduction of the values, up until the function
generated became too complex for the characteristics of the
problem considered (with the inclusion of troughs and peaks
not seen in the sequence of measured values).
The quantitative assessment of a models performance is
a fundamental aspect in the process of developing a model.
A sufciently signicant estimate of a models forecasting
accuracy and precision is given by measuring the
differences between the predicted and observed values, i.e.
the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square
error (RMSE).
MAE Zn
K1
X
n
iZ1
jP
i
KO
i
j RMSE Z n
K1
X
n
iZ1
P
i
KO
i

2
" #
1=2
where n is the number of examples, O
i
the observed values
and P
i
the values predicted by the model. Both indices
express the mean value of the error committed by the
forecast; the difference between the two consists in the fact
that the MAE is less sensitive than the RMSE at the
extremes of the differences between the predicted and
observed values.
The results obtained with the model developed are
summarized in Table 1.
The approach based on recurrent neural networks is
certainly of interest in this setting, given the relative
simplicity of their structure and of the learning algorithm,
which enables them to be used like a black box, in that they
do not reveal their transfer function in legible terms. On the
other hand, being practically non-transparent to the user is
often also one of the greatest drawbacks of neural networks,
since it is basically impossible to give a physical
interpretation of the resulting control law. To overcome
this problem, our attention has turned to neuro-fuzzy
networks: in practice, these are neural networks (that
consequently use the typical learning algorithm based on
back propagation) whose structure describes a fuzzy system,
which can consequently be fully interpreted by the user. For
the present study, we used a class of adaptive networks
functionally equivalent to the fuzzy inference systems. The
proposed architecture is dened as an adaptive neuro fuzzy
inference system, or ANFIS (Appendix 2).
For each of the input working conditions, we dened two
Gaussian-type membership functions. The two membership
functions distributing the whole universe of each input refer
to the low, and high fuzzy sets. Fig. 5 shows the neuro-
fuzzy network and the membership functions.
The advantage of using an adaptive type of model is that,
once the input and output data have been provided, the rules
are generated automatically. In this study, since there were
six inputs with two membership functions each, the number
of rules amounted to rZ2
8
Z256.
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time (x 30 min)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time (x 30 min)
V
i
b
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
m
m
/
s
)
V
i
b
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
m
m
/
s
)
values predicted
values observed
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90 (b)
(a)
values predicted
values observed
Fig. 4. Comparison between the predicted (dashed) and observed (solid)
values: (a) NZ2, (b) NZ6.
Table 1
NZ2 NZ6
Max value jP
i
KO
i
j 0.0850 0.1055
Max error value (%) 5.79% 7.93%
MAE 0.019827 0.026812
RMSE 0.027314 0.033934
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 321
Fig. 6(a) and (b) below show the outcome of the
generalizations obtained for the set with eight inputs (QZ8)
in the case of NZ2, 2 stepsZ1 h ahead and in the case of
NZ6, 6 stepsZ3 h ahead.
The results obtained with the model developed are
summarized in Table 2.
Clearly, the neuro-fuzzy systems has a much lower
RMSE than the others, though they take more time for data
processing than recurrent neural network. Since the lowest
max error value took priority in the application analyzed,
we preferred to use neuro-fuzzy systems, which prove more
accurate in adapting the input data to the output data.
4. Conclusions
Based on the above considerations, there are two
advantages to be gained from applying a condition-based
maintenance plan that includes using soft computing
techniques and fundamental goals that justify its adoption
in practical terms:
its inability to control and govern early faults or
deterioration: so the fundamental goal of the
resulting CBM plan will be the chance to predict
and prevent catastrophic faults. The aim is to
benet from the chance to know well enough in
advance of the onset of a fault to enable the
necessary measures to be planned, or at least to
avoid the consequences of the fault degenerating;
its inability to take action in relation to the real
conditions of the equipment: preventive mainten-
ance plans often schedule repairs to be done
earlier than is really necessary. In times of
increasingly limited resources, it becomes vitally
important to be able to postpone the deadline for
maintenance measures whenever we can, so the
money-saving factor is a far from secondary issue.
Even when there is no direct inuence on the costs, the
proposed CBM approach aims to identify the reason for
repeated early damage. In the case of the pump considered
here, for instance, the information deriving from the
monitoring procedure prompted us to redesign the equip-
ment, adopting hydrodynamic bearings to reduce the need
for maintenance.
Whenever no particular deterioration was detected or
the equipment was found in unexpectedly good repair, these
cases provided a precious reference on which to base
comparisons and considerations for future inspections
A11
.
.
.
A1m
An1
.
.
.

Anm
TT
TT
TT
TT
N
N
N
N
w
i
.
.
.
.
.
.
1
2
r-1
r
w
i
.
.
.

w
i
f
i
premise parameters consequent parameters
Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer 4 Layer 5
y = x
t+N
Input
X
t-7
.
.
.
.
X
t
Fig. 5. Neuro-fuzzy architetture.
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time (x 30 min)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time (x 30 min)
V
i
b
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
m
m
/
s
)
V
i
b
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
m
m
/
s
)
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90 (b)
(a)
values predicted
values observed
values predicted
values observed
Fig. 6. Comparison between the predicted (dashed) and observed (solid)
values: (a) NZ2, (b) NZ6.
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 322
and in order to complete the history of the systems being
monitored.
The introduction of a prediction tool is very like any
other investment, which initially demands sacrices that
outweigh the advantages it can offer. It is important to bear
in mind that the CBM plan was developed in steps and many
parameters, e.g. the previously mentioned alarm levels, or
the monitoring frequency, are constantly being corrected to
make them more suitable in terms of the effectiveness of the
system as a whole. This ne adjustment process, which can
account for as much as 50% of the effort required, is called
recalibration.
The effects of CBM must be assessed in relation to its
inuence on all the other maintenance-related activities and
the ultimate measure of its performance is the variation in
global costs. The new activities that are introduced mean
new costs that aim to reduce existing costs. For a thorough
assessment, we need to bear in mind all the aspects affecting
its weight and all the aspects that test its effectiveness, such
as the cost of the instruments that are used (their purchase,
upgrade, and calibration) and the cost of the man-hours
needed on the one hand, the cost of condition-based
maintenance measures and the (reduction in) the costs of
corrective measures on the other.
The best way to conduct a correct and detailed analysis of
all the costs associated with the maintenance policy is
obviously the CMMS (providing it is given suitable data),
which quanties the costs by processing the job feedback
data and the job card data.
Appendix 1
The following steps were involved in the criticality
analysis for the plant studied here:
identify and list all the objects at the plant liable to
maintenance;
dene the relevant data, the preventive mainten-
ance plans, and the recording of any faults;
attribute the consequences to the risk items
considered;
extract only the objects that can be effectively
monitored using CBM methods;
determine the criticality of the single machines
and select which machines to monitor.
Combining the susceptibility to a damage mechanism
with the simultaneously-evaluated consequences enables us
Table 2
NZ2 NZ6
Max value jP
i
KO
i
j 0.0495 0.0760
Max error value (%) 3.65% 5.85%
MAE 0.016173 0.022826
RMSE 0.023514 0.028061
Fig. A1. Plan of risk analysis and denition of the monitoring frequency.
F.E. Ciarapica, G. Giacchetta / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19 (2006) 316325 323
to determine the risk class (N,L,M,H,E,X) for a given
apparatus and for a given damage mechanism (Fig. A1).
The equipment selected for predictive maintenance was
then input as lines in a machine-monitoring matrix (Fig. A1)
in order to attribute the related monitoring activities and
their frequency.
Concerning the denition of the monitoring frequency, it
should be noted that this is a variable parameter in the
context of a CBM plan, continually liable to adjustment and
correction. In fact, it is a good idea to adjust and adapt the
sampling frequencies as a function of the trends and the
level of the values being measured. In daily practice,
moreover, it is also important to take into account the
availability of personnel for the monitoring and analytical
procedures, and the time these procedures take.
Appendix 2
A neuro-fuzzy network is a method for determining the
parameters of a fuzzy system of Takagi-Sugeno type,
represented as a special Multilayer Perceptron. The Sugeno
fuzzy model was proposed by Takagi, Sugeno and Kang to
develop a systematic approach to the fuzzy rules generated
by a given set of inputs and outputs. For n inputs, x
i
, with m
i
membership functions, iZ1,.,n, and one output, y, the
total number of rules, r, is dened as: rZ
Q
n
iZ1
m
i
. A typical
rule with a fuzzy if-then structure is expressed by:
Rule
(i)
: If x
i
is A
i
1
1
and . and x
n
is A
i
n
n
, Then f
i
Zp
i0
C
p
i1
x
1
C.Cp
in
x
n
, where x
j
, jZ1,., n, are non-fuzzy input
variables, A
i
k
k
, 1!i
k
!m
k
, are fuzzy variables related to the
kth input with the i
k
th membership function, and p
ij
, iZ1,.,
r, are constants in the consequent. The membership
functions for A
j
n
, m
A
j
i
x
i
, for example, can be of the
Gaussian type: m
A
j
i
x
i
; c
j
; s
j
Zexp
Kx
i
Kc
j

2
2s
j

2
n o
The parameters {c
j
,s
j
} in this layer are referred to as
premise parameters.
The ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) is
based on a neural network comprising ve levels (Fig. 5).
The r nodes on the second level represent the antecedents
of the fuzzy rules. The activation functions on this level (in
the same number as the fuzzy rules) only perform the logical
AND operation between the active inputs, which can be
done by choosing the minimum among the degrees of
membership or by calculating their product. The weights of
the input connections consequently acquire the binary
values 0 and 1 in order to discriminate the input signals in
the combination relating to the fuzzy rule, so they do not
undergo the learning procedure. The output of the ith node is
denoted as w
i
: w
i
Z
Q
n
jZ1
m
A
j
i
x
j
.
The activation functions on the rst level determine the
degree of satisfaction of each rule and perform the following
operation: wZ
w
i
w
1
C.Cw
r
. The nodes of the fourth layer
represent the consequents of the rules and thus calculate
the rules output values. Each node is connected to a node
on the previous level and to all the input variables. The
value of the output will be given by: w
i
f
i
Z w
i
p
i1
x
1
C.C
p
in
x
n
Cp
i0
. Finally, the output node on the fth level
determines the output value simply by adding together the
values of its input, i.e.: yZ
P
i
w
i
f
i
Z
P
i
w
i
f
i
P
i
w
i
.
In the present paper, a hybrid learning algorithm was
used to determine the constants in the consequent of the
ANFIS (Table A1). Thus the neuro-fuzzy systems learning
process adopts a hybrid type of approach using the least
squares method and the back propagation method already
used to train neural networks.
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