(All working to be done on 5 % significance)

Mr. Chetan Jaggu works for LSR Distilleries Pvt. Limited as a Management Trainee. In July 2015, Mr .
Chetan and a team consisting of Mr. Ash Patty, Mr Gundy Mallu , Mr Sunny Mistry(from HR) were
deputed in the Marketing Department . Their boss, Mr. Bubu showed them the sales figures of the
past month for 3 cities, Mumbai, Punjab and Kolkata. After giving that, he loosely mentioned that
Punjab is their biggest market.
1) Can Jaggu and his team (name ShaktiMaani Aandhi) verify Mr. Bubus claim? If yes, how can
they do it

Mr. Jaggu applied the appropriate methods to verify Mr. Bubus Claim. And got the following result
SUMMARY
Groups
Punjab
Mumbai
Kolkata

Count
30
30
30

Source of
Variation
Between Groups
Within Groups

SS
110.2889
750.8333

Total

861.1222

Sum
814
733
780

df

2) What will Mr. Jaggu conclude?

2
87
89

Average
27.13333
24.43333
26

Variance
8.188506
12.39195
5.310345

MS
55.14444
8.630268

F
6.389656

P-value
0.002575

F crit
3.101296

Mr. Bubu is pleasantly surprised to see that Team ShaktiMaani Aandhi used statistical techniques to
substantiate his claim. And he decided to test them further by putting forwards another statement
to check. Mr. Jaggus team worked on that too and generated the following table.

Mean
Variance
Observations
Pooled Variance
Hypothesized Mean Difference
Df
t Stat
P(T<=t) one-tail
t Critical one-tail
P(T<=t) two-tail
t Critical two-tail

Punjab
27.13333333
8.188505747
30
10.29022989
0
58
3.259844284
0.000933875
1.671552762
0.001867749
2.001717484

3) What question did Mr. Bubu ask?

4) What conclusion did Mr. Jaggus team draw?

Mumbai
24.43333333
12.39195402
30

Based on the conclusion drawn by Mr. Jaggus team, the owners of LSR Refineries ie. Mr. LSR and
Mr. Ramuk Maytas decided to run sales promotion in Mumbai .
5) Is this a correct decision, explain?

After the sales promotion, ran in July 2014, Mr Jaggu was given a task to find out if that campaign
was of any impact.

6) Which technique should he use to check this?

After running the appropriate technique, ShaktiMaani Aaandi got the following results

Mean
Variance
Observations
Pearson Correlation
Hypothesized Mean Difference
df
t Stat
P(T<=t) one-tail
t Critical one-tail
P(T<=t) two-tail
t Critical two-tail

Mumbai July
24.43333333
12.39195402
30
0.18278443
0
29
2.235300456
0.016631265
1.699127027
0.03326253
2.045229642

7) What can we conclude looking at this figures.

Mumbai
August
26
5.310344828
30

Impressed with Mr. Jaggus leadership he was made the factory in charge for the Aurangabad
Refinery of LSR Refineries in July 2016. On his time there he decided to cut costs of overheads. For
this he took the records of the year 2012 , 2013 and 2014 to build a forecasting tool.
8) What forecasting tool should he use?

The forecasting tool he used gave the following results.

9)
10)
11)
12)
13)

What forecasting tool did Mr. Jaggu use?

What are the significant independent Variables?
What is the dependent variable?
What proportion of the dependent variables is explained by the independent variables?
Are there any outliers in this set ?

The following data was furnished later :

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Predicted Overhead
98391.35059
85522.33322
92723.59538
82428.09201
100227.9028
107869.3954
114933.4723
75117.13407
104910.3677
88553.83418
107350.1156
96596.62525
105066.7568
99463.45145
101603.311
112800.1888
111055.5759
90940.05044
96712.63492
107725.8963
97610.85237
95313.15629
97794.73098
102930.3164
92070.54941
82713.38076
117634.1764
96150.08087
101277.6428
98155.91213
84741.835
95609.88762
113279.0892
109936.5195
92022.1465
112227.6396

Residuals
1406.649409
2281.666779
957.4046174
-166.0920107
6740.097234
55.60458248
2353.52769
1750.865928
1090.632275
184.1658179
-1520.115584
-7866.62525
-4442.756845
-606.4514511
1018.688967
-4741.188802
-1001.575934
951.9495609
1980.365084
2804.10374
-727.8523694
4279.843712
-3230.730981
2821.683607
1153.450589
-7315.38076
-4497.176373
-10541.08087
-2779.64283
3647.087872
3629.165001
6809.112379
3903.910818
-2108.519545
-3990.146503
5715.360447

14) Are there any outliers in the data ?

15) What should be done with the outliers?

Standard Residuals Percentile Overhead

0.352555512 1.388889
75398
0.571865452 4.166667
76868
0.239959064 6.944444
82262
-0.041628464 9.722222
85609
1.689303972
12.5
87804
0.013936452 15.27778
88032
0.589876308 18.05556
88371
0.438828204 20.83333
88730
0.273350572 23.61111
88738
0.046158392 26.38889
91892
-0.380994102 29.16667
93224
-1.971651271 31.94444
93681
-1.113510165 34.72222
94564
-0.151997933
37.5
96883
0.255319064 40.27778
98498
-1.188307645 43.05556
98693
-0.25102994 45.83333
98857
0.238591836 48.61111
99593
0.496348715 51.38889
99798
0.702806417 54.16667
100624
-0.182425246 56.94444
101803
1.072678439 59.72222
102419
-0.809734116
62.5
102622
0.707212546 65.27778
105752
0.289095037 68.05556
105830
-1.833490133 70.83333
106001
-1.127149601 73.61111
106968
-2.641963337 76.38889
107828
-0.696675657 79.16667
107925
0.914087707 81.94444
108059
0.909595609 84.72222
110054
1.706601579
87.5
110530
0.978456515 90.27778
113137
-0.528468703 93.05556
117183
-1.000070192 95.83333
117287
1.432469112 98.61111
117943

Mr. Jaggu decided to use his model to predict the overheads of the year 2015
16) What percentage of the predictions of the year 2015 will be correct?
17)Mr. Jaggu wants to check if his predictions are good enough. What technique will he use ?