VISIONS FOR THE SMART GRID PANEL

Andrew Tang, Senior Director,

Smart Energy Web, PG&E
Philip Mezey, SVP & COO,
Itron North America
David Pacyna, SVP & GM, NAFTA
Transmission & Distribution,
Siemens Energy
Sharon Allan, Senior Executive, North
American Smart Grid Practice, Accenture
HOST: Matt Marshall
 GreenBeat 2009
SmartGrid Vision for 2015

Andrew Tang
Senior Director
Smart Energy Web
November 19, 2009 3
Challenge: Peakiness of Demand

Annual Generation Utilization

50,000

Last 5% (2,500 MW)

45,000
needed less than 50
40,000
hours per year

35,000

30,000

MW
25,000

20,000
Last 25% of capacity
needed less than
15,000 10% of the time

10,000

5,000

0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500
Challenge: Integrating Projected Generation Mix

2009 2020
Other

Large
Nuclear Nuclear Hydro

Natural
Gas Large
Hydro Renewable*

Natural
Gas
Renewable

Coal *With 33% RPS Other

 Intermittency of Renewable Resources

22.5 TWh 34.8 TWh 72.3 TWh 77.6 TWh

700 Each color represents a unique 24 hour day

600
−Day 29
500
−Day 9
Megawatts

400
−Day 5 −Day 26
300

200 −Average
100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1415 16 17 1819 20 21 22 23 24
Source: California Public Utilities Commission, July 2009
Challenge: Distributed Generation

40% of US solar PV interconnections are in PG&E’s service territory

PV Solar Is Concentrated

596 cities
Average = 57
Median = 12
Mode (86 cities) = 1
Top 20 cities = 38% of total
 Challenge: Electric Vehicle Growth

High (845)
Thousands of EVs

Average (532)

HEV Historical
Low (219)

Cumulative PG&E Service Territory PEV

Market Adoption Scenarios * Shifted 10 years forward
HEV density: A Tale of Two Cities

Fresno CA:

New registrations: 83K

HEV registrations: 2K

2.4% new registrations

HEVs

HEV zip code median: 11

= 25 HEVs

Source: Polk & Company, DMV new car

registrations.
HEV density: A Tale of Two Cities

Berkeley CA:

New registrations: 14K

HEV registrations: 2.5K

18% new registrations

HEVs

HEV zip code median: 212

= 25 HEVs

Source: Polk & Company, DMV new car

registrations.
 PEV Charging Creates A Significant Increase In Load

Customers will prefer a PEV charging is a large load for PG&E

240V charge to shorten customers, comparable to average peak
recharge times summer load of a single home

San Francisco
16 hours
BEV Recharge time

Berkeley

8 hours Vacaville

4 hours
Fresno

Rocklin
120V/12A 240V/15A 240V/30A

San Ramon
Rate of charge

BEV @ 240V/30A

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

kW

Source: http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/#/charging, August 14, 2009

Four Challenges
Peakiness in the absence of Time Shifting Aggressive additions to Intermittent Renewables

Local Concentrations of DG Local Concentrations of EVs

Smart Grid Vision 2015
Overlay with intelligence and automation

Sense Communicate Compute Control

Power Transmission Substations Distribution Consumers

Plants Networks Networks
Challenges On The Horizon

Policy

Technology

Consumer Adoption
© 2009, Itron Inc.
 The smart grid is about more
than just communications,
technology and energy
systems allowing us to secure
our future. It’s about a
cultural transformation for
the utility industry and all
consumers of energy.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 Building the smart grid may
take a lifetime. But aspects of
it are here today and it is
developing rapidly. To be
successful, we need an
infrastructure designed to
evolve and interoperate.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 Is it too obvious a thought
that we need to protect the
world’s energy and water
supply? Evidently not. It’s
time to get real about the
level of security needed to
secure our energy
infrastructure.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 Too many discussions about
the smart grid are framed
with only the world’s largest
utilities in mind. The key
players of course have a big
stake in the grid’s future, but
all utilities need to be able to
access the grid and use it in
ways that meet their unique
objectives.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 Advanced metering is the
technology around which the
smart grid is built. Why?
Because it acts as the smart
grid’s nervous system,
flowing with information and
commands. Because it
provides the necessary
ongoing measurement for
the grid’s networks,
technologies and other
applications. Because it
becomes the framework for a
multi-application network.
And most importantly,
because it is here today.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 Utilities, regulators,
consumers and others are
tired of excessive hype
around the smart grid. We
are too.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 For some time, the
definitions of “open” and
“standards” have been
debated, misunderstood and
often misrepresented.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 The smart grid is creating
new ways to understand
energy use and behaviors.
With this comes the
development of new roles—
from the utility executive to
the end use customer. But
what does this all mean?

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 Sometimes patches can be a
good thing: A mended hole in
a garment. A bandage that
helps a wound heal. A piece
of tape on an exposed wire in
your kitchen until the
electrician shows up. By
definition, a patch is a
temporary fix, a short-term
solution. But imagine an
energy grid where functions
along the network are
patched together and
incompatible. That won’t
work.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

 If there’s one thing that 30
years of experience driving
innovation for utilities has
taught us, it’s that our
complex industry is bigger
than any one company. We
have to work together.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Smart Grid in 2015…..
Becoming „Grid As Usual“

• Demand Response and RPS Targets Part of Every Utility’s Strategy

• Decoupling, TOU Rates, and other Innovative Measures Create New

Paradigm for Economic Structure of the Industry

• Nationwide Transmission Superhighway….Under Construction!

• eMobility…Gaining Speed

• Storage, Fast Charging for eCars, Self Healing Networks…Setting

the Technology Pace

November 2009 © 2009 Siemens Energy, Inc. All rights reserved

SHARON ALLEN
 Visions of the Smart Grid
2015

Sharon Allan
Partner, Accenture
NA Smart Grid Services

Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 32

 Smart Grid 2015: Transformation Connections

• More Renewable and Distributed

Resources
– Wind: From a fraction of a percent 5
years ago to 3% by 2015
– Solar Photovoltaics: From a fraction
of a percent 5 years ago to 1.5% by
2015
– MicroGrids

• Integrated Visualization, Analytics,

& Control

• Smart Meters utilized for more than

generating a monthly bill
– From less than 1 million 5 years ago
to over 57M in 2015 (NA)
Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 33
 Smart Grid 2015: Digitizing and Connecting

• Electrification (EV/PHEV and Boats)

– From virtually none 5 years ago to

projections of 1.7M Worldwide
– President Obama wants 1.5M by
2015
– V2G limited… will likely occur
beyond 2015

• More Consumer/Business
offerings

– Value to Customer
– More accessible information
Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 34
 Smart Grid 2015: Not just Technology but part of
Social Norms

Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 35

 Sources:
1.Pike Research Forecast
2.Montreal PHEV World 2009
3.IEA report, Transport, Energy&CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability (2009)
4. "EPRI Joins Ford-SCE Analysis of Plug-In Hybrids on Grid," Targeted News Service, 27 March 2008, via
Factiva, © Copyright 2008, Targeted News Service.
5. "PSA Peugeot Citroën's EV Strategy Shifts into High Gear," Business Wire Regulatory Disclosure, 5 March
2009, via Factiva, © 2009, Business Wire.
6. Masia, Seth, comment on "EV Batteries: An Investor's Take," Solor Today Blog, comment posted March 29,
2009, http://ases.org/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=EV-batteries-An-investors-take.html&Itemid=27.
7. International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2009

Sharon Allan
Partner, Accenture
NA Smart Grid Services
sharon.s.allan@accenture.com

Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 36