134 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 16, NO.

2, JUNE 2001
Reliability Benefit Analysis of Adding WTG
to a Distribution System
Peng Wang and Roy Billinton, Fellow, IEEE
AbstractWind turbine generators (WTG) used as alternative
supply in a distribution system have different impacts on the
system reliability performance than conventional alternative
supplies due to the variable wind speed. This paper investigates
the systemreliability benefits of adding WTGas alternative supply
in a rural distribution system. The wind generation interrupted
energy benefit (WGIEB), the wind generation interruption cost
benefit (WGICB), the equivalent number of conventional genera-
tors (ENCG) and the equivalent conventional generator capacity
(ECGC) of one MW WTG are introduced. These indices provide
direct reliability benefit indicators on the addition of WTG, and
are important information for system planners to make planning
decisions such as the selection of a wind site and the number of
WTG. A test rural distribution system is utilized to illustrate
the proposed technique. The effects on the system reliability
benefits of the wind site selection and the number of wind units
are investigated.
Index TermsDistribution system, reliability benefit analysis,
wind generation.
I. INTRODUCTION
P
UBLIC environmental concerns with electrical energy
derived from fossil and dwindling fossil resources have
created an increased interest in the development and use of
alternative sources [1]. Many utilities throughout the world are
considering using wind energy as a substitute for conventional
generation due to its huge potential and minimal pollution.
The integration of large numbers of wind turbines in a rural
distribution system can either positively or negatively impact
the system reliability performance due to the variation in wind
speeds and the nonlinear relationship between WTG power
output and the wind velocity. When embedding a WTG farm in
a distribution system, planners usually want to determine:
What is the benefit of adding the WTG farm?
What is the impact on system reliability of adding the
WTG farm?
How many WTG units should be added to achieve a spe-
cific reliability?
It is therefore necessary to develop techniques and indices based
on reliability cost/worth concepts, which can be used to answer
these questions. Analytical and simulation techniques consid-
ering WTG have been utilized to evaluate generation system
reliability [2][7]. Relatively little research work [8] has been
Manuscript received July 7, 1999; revised November 27, 2000.
P. Wang is with the School of EEE, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore.
R. Billinton is with the Electrical Engineering Department, The University of
Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada.
Publisher Item Identifier S 0885-8969(01)04115-8.
done using simulation techniques for rural distribution system
reliability evaluation including WTG.
This paper presents a time sequential simulation technique to
evaluate the reliability benefit of a distribution system including
WTG. Four indices (WGIEB, WGICB, ENCG and ECGC) are
introduced. These indices are used to estimate the benefit of
using WTG as an alternative supply. A test rural distribution
system is utilized to illustrate the proposed technique. The im-
pacts of selecting different wind sites and the number of WTG
units on the system reliability performance are investigated.
II. RELIABILITY COST/WORTH INDICES
The basic load point and system reliability cost/worth indices
usually used in distribution system evaluation are the expected
energy not supplied EENS and expected interruption cost
ECOST [2]. These indices provide important information on
system reliability performance. These indices, however, do not
directly indicate reliability improvement following network
reinforcement. Additional energy and cost benefit indices based
on system EENS and ECOST are defined in the following
section.
A. Energy and Cost Benefit Indices
The reliability worth of adding wind generation as an alter-
native supply can be represented by an index designated as the
wind generation interrupted energy benefit (WGIEB).
WGIEB
EENS EENS
Incremental WTG capacity
(1)
where EENS and EENS represent the energy not supplied
after and before adding WTG units respectively.
The reliability worth of adding wind generation as an alter-
native supply can also be represented by an index designated as
the wind generation interruption cost benefit (WGICB).
WGICB
ECOST ECOST
Incremental WTG capacity
(2)
where ECOST and ECOST are the expected interrup-
tion cost after and before adding WTG units to the system,
respectively.
B. Equivalent Conventional Generation
Because of the uncertain and time varying nature of wind
speed, a 1 MW WTG unit cannot provide the same capacity
and energy as a conventional generating unit (CG) of the same
size. A fundamental question therefore is how many WTG units
should be added to achieve the same reliability as that obtained
08858969/01$10.00 2001 IEEE
WANG AND BILLINTON: RELIABILITY BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ADDING WTG TO A DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 135
by adding a conventional generating unit. An index designated
as the equivalent number of conventional generating units
(ENCG) was created to illustrate the number of WTG units
required to replace a conventional generating unit of the same
size for a specified system ECOST. The ENCG is calculated
using the following equation:
ENCG
RNCG
RNWTG
(3)
where RNCG and RNWTG are the required number of the CG
and WTG respectively.
A similar index based on capacity consideration can be
determined for different size WTG and CG. The equivalent
conventional generating capacity (ECGC) is defined using the
following equation:
ECGC
RCCG
RCWTG
(4)
where RCCG and RCWTG are the required capacity of the CG
and WTG respectively.
The sector customer damage function [9] for the different
system customers are required to calculate system ECOST in
Equations (3) and (4). If the sector customer damage function
are not available, the ENCG and ECGC can be calculated based
on a specified system EENS using equations (5) and (6):
ENCG
RNCG
RNWTG
(5)
ECGC
RCCG
RCWTG
(6)
III. SIMULATION PROCEDURE
The simulation procedure developed to conduct reliability
benefit analysis with WTG as an alternative supply consists of
the following basic steps:
1) Determine the failed element, the time to failure (TTF)
and time to repair (TTR) for the failed element using the
time sequential simulation technique [10].
2) Find the load points that are affected by the failed element
based on the system configuration and the corresponding
protection operating models.
3) Determine the load points that can be restored to service
by the main supply, and the load points and the total min-
imum capacity that are required to be restored to service
by the wind farm based on the system configuration and
the corresponding switch operating models.
4) Simulate the hourly time sequential wind speed for the
TTF TTR hours, calculate the minimum power output
of the WTG farm during TTR using the three-state WTG
model (discussed in a later section) and determine the
load points that can be restored to service by the WTG
farm. In the case of conventional generating unit as alter-
native supply, the minimum output of the station during
TTR is calculated using the two-state model [10].
5) Determine the mid values of the total load point ENS
and COST at simulation time based on the failure
duration, the interrupted load and the sector customer
damage function.
6) The procedure is repeated until the specified stopping rule
is satisfied. The total energy not supplied ENS and the
total interruption cost COST for the load point i during
the total simulation time are:
ENS (7)
COST (8)
where
is the total number of failure events during
the total simulation time,
and are the average load and the failure dura-
tion for the failure event respectively,
is the per unit cost for calculated using
the corresponding sector customer damage
function.
7) Calculate the expected load point and systemcost indices.
The expected energy not supply EENS and the expected inter-
ruption cost ECOST for the load point is calculated using the
following equations:
EENS
ENS
TST
(9)
ECOST
COST
TST
(10)
The system EENS andECOST is calculated using the following
equations:
EENS EENS (11)
ECOST ECOST (12)
where is the total number of load points in the distribution
system.
IV. SYSTEM MODELING
The transmission lines, transformers and conventional gen-
erating units can be represented using a two-state model [10].
The protection devices, load and cost are represented using the
models presented in [10]. This section presents the wind speed
and WTG models used in the simulation procedure.
A. Wind Speed Models
Wind speed varies with time and space and at a specified
hour is related to the wind speeds of previous hours. Many
wind speed models have been developed and utilized [4], [11].
Wind speed is represented in this paper using auto-regressive
and moving average (ARMA) time series models.
Designate OW , , and as the observed wind speed,
the mean of OW , the standard deviation of OW and simulated
wind speed at hour respectively. Let OW . The
136 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 16, NO. 2, JUNE 2001
Fig. 1. Three-state model of a WTG.
auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA) time series model
is:
(13)
where and are the
auto-regressive and moving average parameters of the model re-
spectively, is a normal white noise process with zero mean
and variance , i.e., NID , where NID denotes
Normally Independent Distributed.
The simulated wind speed can be calculated using the fol-
lowing equation:
SW (14)
B. Power Output of a WTG
The power output of a WTGunit at hour t depends on the wind
speed at that hour. The power output of a WTG is calculated
using the following equation [2].
SW
SW SW SW
SW
(15)
where , , and are the cut-in speed, the rated speed,
the cut-out speed and the rated power of a WTG unit respec-
tively. The parameters , and are presented in [2]. After
the hourly wind speed SW is determined using Equation (14),
the available power output of a WTG at any hour can be cal-
culated using Equation (15).
C. WTG and Wind Farm Models
As described in the previous section, the output of a WTG
is a function of the wind speed. Wind speed can be represented
by a three-state model in terms of WTG output. A WTG can
also suffer a forced outage, which can be represented by Up
and Down states. In order to consider the joint effects of both
wind speed and the forced outage, a WTG can be represented
by the three-state model shown in Fig. 1. A wind farm usually
consists of many units and therefore the specified wind velocity
is assumed to be the same for all the units in the farm. The power
Fig. 2. Modified rural radial distribution system.
output of a wind farm at hour is the summation of the output
of all the available units.
V. SYSTEM ANALYSIS
The rural distribution systemconnected to Bus 6 of the RBTS
[12] was modified to conduct the studies. This modified system
includes one main feeder (F1) and three subfeeders (F2, F3, and
F4). A WTG farm is incorporated in the system. The total av-
erage load is 4.8155 MWand the total peak load is 10.9284 MW.
The modified system is shown in Fig. 2.
A. Basic Case Studies
Four cases were analyzed to determine the benefit of using
WTG as an alternative supply. Case 1 (Without an alterna-
tive supply) provides the base for comparison. In Case 2,
one 11.25 MW conventional generating unit is used as the
alternative supply. In order to provide a basis for comparison
between CG and WTG, 50 identical conventional generating
units (Case 3) were used as the alternative supply. The capacity
of each unit is 0.225 MW. The total capacity is 11.25 MW. A
wind farm containing 50 WTG units was located at the end
of Feeder 4 in Case 4. The rated output of each WTG unit
is 0.225 MW. The , and are 9, 38 and 80 km/hr
respectively. The generating unit forced outage rate is 0.04
in each of the four cases. It should be noted that 0.225 MW
conventional generating units are not conventional and Cases 2
and 3 are included for direct comparison purposes.
Actual wind data were available for a number of locations in
Saskatchewan, Canada and have been used in the analysis of the
test system. The following data are from a site located at North
Battleford. The annual average wind speed of this wind site is
14.63 km/hr and the standard deviation is 9.75. The ARMA(3,2)
model in this site is shown in the following:
(16)
where NID .
The load point EENS and ECOST are shown in Figs. 3 and 4.
WANG AND BILLINTON: RELIABILITY BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ADDING WTG TO A DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 137
Fig. 3. The load point EENS for the four cases.
Fig. 4. The load point ECOST for the four cases.
TABLE I
SYSTEM INDICES FOR FOUR CASES
Figs. 3 and 4 show that the load point EENS and ECOST
have only small decreases after the 50 WTG units are added
to the system. The load point EENS and ECOST, however, im-
prove significantly when 50 0.225 MWconventional generating
units or one 11.25 MW conventional generating unit are added
to the system. The system indices for the four cases are shown
in Table I.
It can be seen fromTable I that the systemEENS decreases by
52 percent from 38.257 to 19.228 MWh per year using conven-
tional generating units. The system EENS decreases by about
7 percent from 38.257 to 35.42 MWh per year using the WTG.
The system ECOST decreases by 56 percent using the CG and
9 percent using the WTG. It can be clearly seen that a WTG
cannot produce the same capacity and energy benefits as the
same size CG due to the variation in wind velocity.
B. System Benefit of Adding WTG
The benefits obtained from WTG alternative supply depend
on the number of WTG and the parameters of the wind site.
The effect of the number of WTG units on the system benefit
indices was examined using wind data from three locations in
Saskatchewan.
1) North Battleford (NB) Model: North Battleford is located
in the north central part of Saskatchewan. The wind speed model
parameters are shown in the previous section. The system cost
and energy benefit indices are shown in Fig. 5.
Fig. 5. WGIEB and WGICB variation for the NB model.
Fig. 6. WGIEB and WGICB variation for the Regina model.
It can be seen from Fig. 5 that the WGIEB and WGICB
are 0.153 MWh/(MW-yr) and 0.245 k$/(MW-yr) respectively
when 5 WTG units are installed in the system. The WGIEB
and WGICB are 0.251 and 0.263 respectively when the units
increase from 45 to 50. The benefit of adding the first 5 WTG
units is less than the benefit of adding 5 WTG units to a system
with 45 units.
2) Regina Model: Regina is located in the southern part of
Saskatchewan. The wind speed model used is the ARMA (4,3)
model shown in Equation (17).
(17)
where NID .
The annual average wind speed is 19.52 km/hr with a stan-
dard deviation of 10.99. Fig. 6 shows the variation in the benefit
indices with the number of units.
Fig. 6 shows that the WGIEB is 0.381 and the WGICB is
0.413 when the WTG units increase from 45 to 50. The benefits
of adding WTG units at this location is larger than those for the
North Battleford site. The number of WTG units required with
the Regina model for a specified reliability index is lower than
the number of WTG units required with the North Battleford
data.
3) Saskatoon Model: Saskatoon is located in the southern
central part of Saskatchewan. The wind speed model used is the
ARMA (3,2) model shown in Equation (18).
(18)
where NID .
138 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 16, NO. 2, JUNE 2001
Fig. 7. WGIEB and WGICB variation for the Saskatoon model.
Fig. 8. EENS variation with the number of WTG units.
The annual average wind speed is 16.78 km/hr with a standard
deviation of 9.23. Fig. 7 shows the variation in the indices with
the number of units.
Fig. 7 shows that the WGIEB and WGICB are 0.298 and
0.323 respectively when the WTG units increase from 45 to 50.
These values are lower than those for the Regina model and
higher than those for the North Battleford model.
It can be concluded from the previous analysis that the
WGIEB and WGICB vary with both wind site and the number
of WTG units. The WGIEB and WGICB initially increase
with the addition of WTG units for a specified wind site. The
WGIEB and WGICB then decrease with increasing number of
WTG units after the number of WTG units reaches a specific
point. This means that there is a optimal number of WTG units
for a specified wind site and distribution system. The optimal
number of WTG units can be decided by the benefit index
curve and the system investment curve.
4) Comparison of the Results: Fig. 8 shows the variation in
the EENS with the number of WTG units for the three wind
models. Fig. 9 shows the ECOST variation with the number of
WTG units for the three wind models.
It can be seen from Fig. 8 that the EENS for the three models
are different for a given number of WTG. The Regina model
has the smallest EENS followed by the Saskatoon and the
North Battleford data. Fig. 8 also shows that if the EENS is
33.365 MWh/yr, 45 units are required for the Regina model,
over 65 units for the Saskatoon model and even more units
for the North Battleford model. Similar conclusions regarding
ECOST can be drawn from Fig. 9.
Fig. 9. ECOST variation with the number of WTG units.
Fig. 10. Selection of the number of units based on EENS.
Fig. 11. Selection of the number of units based on ECOST.
C. Equivalent Conventional Generating Unit
The equivalent conventional generating unit of a WTG was
calculated using curves which show the variation of EENS with
the number of CG and WTG units. Fig. 10 shows the variation
in EENS with the number of units for both WTG and CG.
If the EENS is limited to 35.716 MWh/yr, 45 WTG units are
required to satisfy this reliability criterion. At most, 7 conven-
tional generating units need to be installed to satisfy the same
requirement. The ENCG is 0.156 which means one 0.225 MW
WTG equals 0.156 of the same size conventional generating
unit or one 0.225 MW conventional generating unit is equiv-
alent to 6.43 same size WTG units. If the EENS is limited to
33.416 MWh/yr, 100 WTG units are required and about 10 con-
ventional generating units have to be installed. The ENCG in
this case is 0.1. The value is even smaller than the previous value
which indicates that 10 WTG equals one CG. The ENCG can
WANG AND BILLINTON: RELIABILITY BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ADDING WTG TO A DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 139
also be determined using Fig. 11 which shows the variation in
ECOST with the number of units.
It can be seen from Fig. 11 that the number of units selected
according to the ECOST is a little lower than the number of
units selected based on EENS. For ECOST k$/yr,
5 conventional generating units and 45 WTG units are required
respectively. The ENCGis 0.111 which means that 9 WTGunits
are required to replace one conventional generating unit.
The analyzes described in this section provide a quantitative
basis for the general and perhaps obvious conclusions that the
capacity and energy benefits obtained from one wind genera-
tion unit do not equal those obtained from one same size con-
ventional generation unit. The number of WTG units which
have to be added to a distribution system depends on the av-
erage wind speed and the wind speed deviations. It also depends
on the investment cost of WTG installations. The indices pre-
sented in this paper provide useful input when considering WTG
as alternative supplies in distribution system development and
reinforcement.
VI. CONCLUSION
A time sequential simulation technique to evaluate the relia-
bility of a distribution system including WTG as an alternative
supply is presented in this paper. The reliability indices WGIEB,
WGICB, ENCG and ECGC are introduced to estimate the ben-
efit of WTG additions in a distribution system. A test distribu-
tion systemis analyzed to illustrate the proposed technique. The
results show that a WTG has a different impact on distribution
system reliability than does a conventional generator because
of the random nature of wind speed, and the nonlinear relation-
ship between WTG output and wind velocity. The calculated
indices WGIEB and WGICB vary with the physical location of
the wind turbine generators and with the number of units added
at that location. Different amounts of installed wind capacity
may therefore be required at different locations to achieve the
same reliability benefit as conventional capacity additions. The
procedure and analyzes described in this paper illustrate that
these factors can be quantitatively incorporated in the decision
making process. The optimal number of WTG units can be de-
termined using both benefit and investment indices. The anal-
ysis also shows that a number of WTG units may be required to
replace a same size CG. The reliability benefit indices provide
important information for system planners when making invest-
ment decisions.
REFERENCES
[1] V. D. Hunt, Wind PowerA Handbook on Wind Energy Conversion Sys-
tems. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, 1981.
[2] P. Giorsetto and K. F. Utsurogi, Development of a new procedure for
reliability modeling of wind turbine generators, IEEETrans. Power Ap-
paratus and Systems, vol. 102, no. 1, pp. 134143, Jan. 1983.
[3] X. Wang, H. Dai, and R. J. Thomas, Reliability modeling of large wind
farms and electric utility interface system, IEEE Trans. Power Appa-
ratus and Systems, vol. 103, no. 3, pp. 569575, Mar. 1984.
[4] C. Singh and A. Lago-Gonzalez, Reliability modeling of generation
systems including unconventional energy sources, IEEE Trans. Power
Apparatus and Systems, vol. 104, no. 5, pp. 10491056, May 1985.
[5] R. Billinton and A. A. Chowdhury, Incorporation of wind energy con-
version systems in conventional generating capacity adequacy assess-
ment, IEE ProceedingC, vol. 139, no. 1, pp. 4656, Jan. 1992.
[6] R. Billinton, H. Chen, and R. Ghajar, Asequential simulation technique
for adequacy evaluation of generating systems including wind energy,
IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 728734, 1996.
[7] G. Desrochers and M. Blanchard, A Monte Carlo simulation for the
economical assessment of the contribution of wind energy to power sys-
tems, IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 5056, 1986.
[8] R. N. Allan and F. C. Sayas, Reliability modeling and evaluation of
distribution systems containing wind farm, in Proceedings of the Prob-
ability Methods Applied to Power Systems Conference, Vancouver, BC,
Canada, Sept. 1997.
[9] G. Wacker, E. Wojczynski, and R. Billinton, Customer damage
resulting from electric service interruption, Canadian Electricity
Association, Montreal, Canada, R&D Project 907, U131 Report, 1982.
[10] R. Billinton and P. Wang, Distribution system reliability cost/worth
analysis using analytical and sequential simulation techniques, IEEE
Trans. Power Systems, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 12451250, Nov. 1998.
[11] R. Billinton, H. Chen, and R. Ghajar, Time series models for reliability
evaluation of power systems including wind energy, Microelectron. Re-
liab., vol. 36, no. 9, pp. 12531261, 1996.
[12] R. N. Allan, R. Billinton, L. Goel, I. Sjarrief, and K. S. So, A reliability
test system for educational purposes-basic distribution system data and
results, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 813820, 1991.
Peng Wang was born in P.R. China. Received the B.Sc. degree from Xian
Jiaotong University and M.Sc. degree from Taiyuan University of Technology,
P. R. China. Received the M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of
Saskatchewan, Canada. Joined Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
in 1999.
Roy Billinton (F78) came to Canada fromEngland in 1952. Received the B.Sc.
and M.Sc. degrees fromthe University of Manitoba and Ph.D. and D.Sc. degrees
from the University of Saskatchewan. Joined the University of Saskatchewan in
1964. Presently, Associate Dean, Graduate Studies, Research and Extension of
the College of Engineering. Author of papers on power system analysis, sta-
bility, economic system operation and reliability. Author or co-author of eight
books on reliability.